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Hopefully for Mistwalker they will sell more copes for ASH in USA and Europe so it balances out with the sales in Japan

 

[Stumpokapow]

This is not factoring in shipment numbers though. Sell-through percentages are very important. The problem is that over the past two days ASH has been literally raped by retailers. It's an expensive DS game that had over 100k units shipped to stores, and the lack of hype failed to sell even 50% of that initial shipment on the first day. Retailers panicked and slashed the price, devaluing the entire product. Since retailers are taking losses to rid themselves of stock this early, it's highly unlikely they will order more of this product.

That's certainly true; obviously in the case of massive price cuts (I'm reminder of Dirge, Mana 4, HOM, IAWW, and a ton of Namco products etc) it's a pretty clear sign that a second shipment isn't going to be ordered.

I wasn't actually even replying about ASH in specific--more the idea that a game selling 3x it's first day during its first week would be a lot higher than normal.

Based on a previous report, Nintendo expected to sell about 200k of ASH, so much for that. 2.5 years down the drain for Sakaguchi!

I actually think that despite the quality of Mistwalker's products, they have a shitty business strategy. Blue Dragon was used as a loss leader in Japan with the hopes that America would help the game break even. America did not. Lost Odyssey is going to go the same way--impressive for X360 in Japan, but not anywhere near breakeven point, and although LO will resonate better with the US I'm still doubtful that the game will be profitable.

Since Nintendo might be the only profitable channel for Sakaguchi right now, losing love with an ASH bomba will not be good for the company.

Actually, I'd be really curious to see some Mistwalker games budgets. Obviously their publishers are absorbing the losses on the game costs, but I'm wondering exactly how big those losses are.

 

[duckroll]

That's certainly true; obviously in the case of massive price cuts (I'm reminder of Dirge, Mana 4, HOM, IAWW, and a ton of Namco products etc) it's a pretty clear sign that a second shipment isn't going to be ordered.

I wasn't actually even replying about ASH in specific--more the idea that a game selling 3x it's first day during its first week would be a lot higher than normal.

Yeah, I'm just clarifying the sell-through factor so people don't get too optimistic about ASH's performance.

I actually think that despite the quality of Mistwalker's products, they have a shitty business strategy.

Oh, totally true. Showing a game for the first time 3 months before release after announcing the title and concept 2-3 years ago is a horrible marketing tactic. It makes people lose confidence in the product and figure that you have something to hide.

Since Nintendo might be the only profitable channel for Sakaguchi right now, losing love with an ASH bomba will not be good for the company.

He still has Cry On lined up with AQ Interactive next year, and 2 DS games from AQi that they just announced this week. I think they'll be fine in the short term, but if none of these games start selling well somewhere in the world, they're definitely going to be in trouble.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

:lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol

Spoiler

That's a load of laughing directed towards your ridiculous claim

Well, what others said. First rule of NeoGAF battle: You do not talk about NeoGAF battle. Second rule of NeoGAF battle: You do not talk about NeoGAF battle. Third rule of NeoGAF battle: At least educate yourself on the basic facts of the matter before you come in guns-a-blazin'.

Too bad for ASH. I've heard it's actually a pretty good game, but sometimes bad shit happens to good games.

And I see DBZ is out there showing the strength of third party games on the Wii.

 

[Pureauthor]

Man, Mistwalker's been having a rough time overall with sales thus far.

 

[Kyoufu]

Man, Mistwalker's been having a rough time overall with sales thus far.

I think I know why. Maybe.

 

[Jokeropia]

30k for DBZ Wii isn't that bad actually. It should beat the first week sales of it's predecessor at least.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

You guys should really have a look at sinobi blog and its comments.

Basically the only one that did good is Gundam Battle Chronicle, outselling its previous entry (Battle Royale) first day.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

30k for DBZ Wii isn't that bad actually. It should beat the first week sales of it's predecessor at least.

At this point, I expect better than that. Something tells me third parties do, too.

 

[cvxfreak]

Laugh as you like, it's completely true. Minna no Golf and Dynasty Warriors are both bigger than MGS, GTP, RE and DMC in Japan. (The size of the latter franchises are commonly exaggerated, RE and DMC haven't even reached 500k in quite a while.) If PS3 has a similar effect on FF as it has had on all the other big PS2 franchises so far, even FFXIII will struggle to break a million. (I do think it'll manage however.)

RE4 PS2 sold more than 500K though, which is especially impressive given that it was out after the modest selling GC version.

 

[Lobster]

At this point, I expect better than that. Something tells me third parties do, too.

How can you do better then selling more then the predecessor?? If its selling more then its predecessor its already selling "better".

Edit: If 3rd parties are expecting it to outsell the Ps2 version they're smoking crack.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

How can you do better then selling more then the predecessor?? If its selling more then its predecessor its already selling "better".

Edit: If 3rd parties are expecting it to outsell the Ps2 version they're smoking crack.

Because profits don't ride on ordinal ranking? And why shouldn't the Wii version outsell the PS2 version? Shouldn't it even be close to parity? The Wii has sold more than enough hardware in Japan to support these kinds of expectations. It should not be getting outsold on multiplat titles by that large of a margin by the last gen leader.

 

[Jokeropia]

At this point, I expect better than that. Something tells me third parties do, too.

To clarify, it should in it's first week surpass what it's predecessor did in it's first week and thus has a good chance to surpass it's LTD as well. I don't know how much more you can expect, I mean Sparking Neo was released less than a year ago and during a much busier sales period too. (January 1st.)

RE4 PS2 sold more than 500K though, which is especially impressive given that it was out after the modest selling GC version.

Was there a best price version or something? Moor-Angol's site has it at 454,979.

 

[Lobster]

Because profits don't ride on ordinal ranking? And why shouldn't the Wii version outsell the PS2 version? Shouldn't it even be close to parity? The Wii has sold more than enough hardware in Japan to support these kinds of expectations. It should not be getting outsold on multiplat titles by that large of a margin by the last gen leader.

The Ps2 has sold 20 million units in Japan while the Wii is at 3.6 million. Thats already enough of a reason why the Ps2 version should sell more. Theres also the fact that game exists on the Ps2 which could also hinder the Wii version performance. Why buy a Wii and the game when its already on the Ps2 that you have?

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

Basically the only one that did good is Gundam Battle Chronicle, outselling its previous entry (Battle Royale) first day.

Wow, really?

Do you have the figures?

 

[Lobster]

You guys should really have a look at sinobi blog and its comments.

Basically the only one that did good is Gundam Battle Chronicle, outselling its previous entry (Battle Royale) first day.

DBZ outsold its pervious entry too. Well for Wii.

 

[ethelred]

Bleh. ASH's sales are so disappointing. The game deserved to do better, but it was marketed horribly. Releasing the first footage of the game a week before its release was such a disastrous idea.

30k for DBZ Wii isn't that bad actually. It should beat the first week sales of it's predecessor at least.

Um... yes, actually it's pretty atrocious. Its predecessor was released well after the original game. This one was released day and date. It shows yet again that there are some serious oddities with the Wii market and that it just doesn't have the gamer population that will support some of the sales these third parties are looking for.

The Ps2 has sold 20 million units in Japan while the Wii is at 3.6 million. Thats already enough of a reason why the Ps2 version should sell more. Theres also the fact that game exists on the Ps2 which could also hinder the Wii version performance. Why buy a Wii and the game when its already on the Ps2 that you have?

That's a consumer question. The publisher question is: "Why develop a Wii game when our games are still selling better on the PS2?"

(Hint: you probably won't like the answer.)

 

[justjohn]

You guys should really have a look at sinobi blog and its comments.

Basically the only one that did good is Gundam Battle Chronicle, outselling its previous entry (Battle Royale) first day.

like i said psp software sales are improving.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Wow, really?

Do you have the figures?

Yeah. Battle Chronicle did 160% of Battle Royale first day (it did 53k first week and 115k LTD btw).

DBZ outsold its pervious entry too. Well for Wii.

Dunno about that since sinobi doesn't mention it, but DBZ BT3 PS2+Wii is 140k (8:2 in favour of PS2) while DBZ BT2 PS2 first day was 170k. So...a little prrwuuu for Namdai since like sinobi says, Namdai was expecting to exceed the former work.

Major League 2 seems to have done quite worse, last year it did 70k first day (PS2-GC) and even worse is that this one has had a horrible sell through (both PS2 and Wii).

Like duckroll said, ASH has had a bad sell through and its getting its price slashed. But on this one I'm a little more optimistic since it could sell more on the weekend because the supply is there, its a new game, its on a Nintendo platform and its price is now lower than its MSRP.

 

[John Harker]

For those thinking ASH sold well:


Umm, doesn't sound like it did good!

Welp, pack up your bags.
There goes Matsuno's Monolith-developed strat RPG for the Wii.

No market for these games on nintendo platforms.
RPG cancelled, developer now making puzzle training game confirmed.

 

[duckroll]

Welp, pack up your bags.
There goes Matsuno's Monolith-developed strat RPG for the Wii.

No market for these games on nintendo platforms.
RPG cancelled, developer now making puzzle training game confirmed.

Good thing AQi announced the two DS Mistwalker RPGs before ASH was released. Now they can't cancel them!

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

See, the thing about ASH is that there is a proven market for strat/RPG games on DS. This one just did badly. It's an ASH problem, not a DS problem.

Whereas over on the Wii, (as far as Japan is concerned) not a damn thing is selling lately that isn't a mini-game collection.

 

[Lobster]

Um... yes, actually it's pretty atrocious. Its predecessor was released well after the original game. This one was released day and date. It shows yet again that there are some serious oddities with the Wii market and that it just doesn't have the gamer population that will support some of the sales these third parties are looking for.



That's a consumer question. The publisher question is: "Why develop a Wii game when our games are still selling better on the PS2?"

(Hint: you probably won't like the answer.)

I don't get how its atrocious if its going to outsell its predecessor..Maybe im just not feeling right or something.

And to your second question, if those games weren't on the Ps2 in the first place and were Wii exclusive, where do you think the fans of the series would go? Those 110k DBZ sales for Ps2 could transfer over to the Wii version.

Edit:

Also isn't ASH very unpolished for a game thats been in development for 2.5 years? Or so thats how the official thread makes it seem.

 

[duckroll]

See, the thing about ASH is that there is a proven market for strat/RPG games on DS. This one just did badly. It's an ASH problem, not a DS problem.

Really? What SRPGs that aren't already a major franchise have had great sales on the DS?

 

[ethelred]

See, the thing about ASH is that there is a proven market for strat/RPG games on DS.

There is?

Luminous Arc, Front Mission, Advance Wars, ... all sold under 100k. Just because Super Robot Wars and FFT A2 will sell, that doesn't mean there's a market for strategy or SRPG games on the DS. Also, yuck on FFT A2, which'll probably sell in the neighborhood of 400k in a few weeks. If ever there was a game that deserved ASH's fate instead...

I don't get how its atrocious if its going to outsell its predecessor..Maybe im just not feeling right or something.

That must be it.

And to your second question, if those games weren't on the Ps2 in the first place and were Wii exclusive, where do you think the fans of the series would go? Those 110k DBZ sales for Ps2 could transfer over to the Wii version.

If those games weren't on the PS2? A publisher would see it as suicide right now to take their PS2 games and just move them exclusively to the Wii because the market is showing that those games will be rejected! And when it finally does come time to kill off the PS2 versions (which doesn't seem like it'll be any time soon, the way the Wii is going)... it's probably not going to move to the console you want.

 

[ccbfan]

Whats with every startup company of former square employee failing.

Its quite discouraging. From Brownie Brown to Monolithsoft to MistWalker. It does not bold well for Matsuno and whatever he does.

 

[John Harker]

Good thing AQi announced the two DS Mistwalker RPGs before ASH was released. Now they can't cancel them!

You know, I thought the very same thing.

Suckers.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

There is?

Luminous Arc, Front Mission, Advance Wars, ... all sold under 100k. Just because Super Robot Wars and FFT A2 will sell, that doesn't mean there's a market for strategy or SRPG games on the DS. Also, yuck on FFT A2, which'll probably sell in the neighborhood of 400k in a few weeks. If ever there was a game that deserved ASH's fate instead...

Now, now ethel. You don't know how FFT A2 will be. It might be the greatest new strategy RPG evar.

 

[duckroll]

Whats with every startup company of former square employee failing.

Its quite discouraging. From Brownie Brown to Monolithsoft to MistWalker. It does not bold well for Matsuno and whatever he does.

You forgot Sacnoth.

 

[Jokeropia]

Um... yes, actually it's pretty atrocious. Its predecessor was released well after the original game. This one was released day and date. It shows yet again that there are some serious oddities with the Wii market and that it just doesn't have the gamer population that will support some of the sales these third parties are looking for.

I still can't really agree. It was released less than a year after Sparking Neo and during a much slower sales period to boot. (Sparking Neo could even be considered a launch period game.)

It also had twice the first day sales of Mario Strikers.

 

[Phife Dawg]

At this point, I expect better than that. Something tells me third parties do, too.

I don't think so. With releasing those games on PS2 and Wii they don't give the existing fanbase on PS2 an incentive to upgrade, since the only big addition to the Wii version is online which isn't that big of a selling point in Japan. I don't think this is considered more than an extra buck. Now if they've made this a Wii exclusive then I'd agree.

 

[tanod]

Famitsu tracked PSP 30% higher this week then MC, so someone is either under or over tracking here

They just use different estimating methodology.

Anyway, Media Create are the GAF-accepted official numbers for the periods in which we have those numbers. Generally, older than PS2 numbers are only available from Famitsu though.

 

[ethelred]

I still can't really agree. It was released less than a year after Sparking Neo and during a much slower sales period to boot. (Sparking Neo could even be considered a launch period game.)

Yeah, that's... the way this whole anime shovelware market works. Welcome to Japan. Yearly installments that new a concept for you? Think of it as the Japanese version of Madden. And the Wii is saying, "Hey, we do not have the PS2's audience on our system. Go somewhere else publishers, we offer you nothing but bomba."

It also had twice the first day sales of Mario Strikers.

Twice the sales of shit doesn't necessarily take it outside the range of shit.

I don't think so. With releasing those games on PS2 and Wii they don't give the existing fanbase on PS2 an incentive to upgrade, since the only big addition to the Wii version is online which isn't that big of a selling point in Japan. I don't think this is considered more than an extra buck. Now if they've made this a Wii exclusive than I'd agree.

The exclusive games haven't sold any better! Should Konami be more annoyed with the bombing of its exclusive Elebits and Dewy or the bombing of its multiplatform Power Pro? It's an interesting philosophical question!

 

[tanod]

How did ASH do in Famitsu?

 

[Lobster]

If those games weren't on the PS2? A publisher would see it as suicide right now to take their PS2 games and just move them exclusively to the Wii because the market is showing that those games will be rejected! And when it finally does come time to kill off the PS2 versions (which doesn't seem like it'll be any time soon, the way the Wii is going)... it's probably not going to move to the console you want.

How is the market showing that the Wii will reject the game?? Its on the Ps2 for goodness sakes..anyone in Japan with half a brain will know to get the Ps2 version because they don't have to spend money to buy a Wii.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

How is the market showing that the Wii will reject the game?? Its on the Ps2 for goodness sakes..anyone in Japan with half a brain will know to get the Ps2 version because they don't have to spend money to buy a Wii.

What about those that already have a Wii? What's stopping them?

 

[ethelred]

How did ASH do in Famitsu?

Better than Suikoden 5 and Etrian Odyssey; worse than Baten Kaitos 2 and Blue Dragon.

What about those that already have a Wii? What's stopping them?

The fact that it's not a minigame collection?

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

Better than Suikoden 5 and Etrian Odyssey; worse than Baten Kaitos 2 and Blue Dragon.



The fact that it's not a minigame collection?

I wish you were here with me now so that I could high five you.

I have a feeling Wii software sales are going to be where the previously friendly alliance between N-fans and Sales-Agers comes to an end.

 

[Jokeropia]

Yeah, that's... the way this whole anime shovelware market works. Welcome to Japan. Yearly installments that new a concept for you? Think of it as the Japanese version of Madden.

But the Wii version was less than a year ago. Not by that huge of a margin, but still. (DBZ is also nowhere near the relative size of Madden.)

Interesting about the Madden example btw, as you might remember that Madden PS2 outsold Madden 360 (in the US) when the 360 was about as old as the Wii is now.

And the Wii is saying, "Hey, we do not have the PS2's audience on our system. Go somewhere else publishers, we offer you nothing but bomba."

The only system with a PS2 audience or better is the DS, and the Wii is the only option for current gen console development.

The fact that it's not a minigame collection?

Didn't stop people from buying DQ:S.

What about those that already have a Wii? What's stopping them?

What's stopping all those who have a PS2 from buying it? DBZ fans actually seem to be adopting the Wii faster than the rest of the market.

 

[Phife Dawg]

The exclusive games haven't sold any better! Should Konami be more annoyed with the bombing of its exclusive Elebits and Dewy or the bombing of its multiplatform Power Pro? It's an interesting philosophical question!

Well Elebits did manage to sell over 60k, that puts it in Ninja Gaiden Sigma territory. Dewey was a big bomb, but I think that was too cute even for japanese tastes. Plus there were already a lot of "tilt the world via Wiimote" games out there. It wasn't the best of ideas.

There are Wii exclusives that did quite well though, like DQS or even One Piece (nearly 100k is pretty good for anime shovelware on a new system). Sure those sales don't rival PS2's numbers for good selling software but from all the three current gen systems Wii is the most feasible atm with cheaper development costs and better average sales.

 

[Haunted]

Why is ASH selling badly?

no marketing, unknown developer (Mistwalker), bad word of mouth? What is it? I hoped it would do well so a western release would become more likely.


And those DBZ Meteor sales just show that it is not the PS3 that the Wii should be worried about, it's the PS2. Software still sells, and even with the difference in userbase, I hoped for better Wii numbers. :/

ah, well. At least MC threads have gotten a bit more lively in the last weeks.

 

[ethelred]

But the Wii version was less than a year ago. Not by that huge of a margin, but still.

Only because last time Scamco released the Wii version months after the PS2 version! This time they released it day-and-date... you'd think that would help, but instead people are now arguing that this explains the Wii version's atrocious performance! Amazing!

Dewey was a big bomb, but I think that was too cute even for japanese tastes. Plus there were already a lot of "tilt the world via Wiimote" games out there. It wasn't the best of ideas.

Yeah... it was a non-minigame collection on the Wii. Not a great idea. I agree.

Sure those sales don't rival PS2's numbers for good selling software but from all the three current gen systems Wii is the most feasible atm with cheaper development costs and better average sales.

Actually, you know what? This isn't true!

Going by all the sales we have available in Dalthien's thread, the Wii actually lags behind the PS3 in average third party sales. Do you know how fucking bad they have to be to accomplish that feat given how much of an upward pull DQS is exerting? The Wii third party median is also worse than the PS3's.

Wow.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

I'm not exactly understanding how increasing sales for Wii when the PS2 is still around is a bad thing. Should people be buying these games for Wii now that it's out even though they still have a PS2?

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

This thread is going to get ugly.

Not as ugly as traditional game sales in Japan on the Wii, not as ugly as ASH's graphics, but still...ugly.

 

[ccbfan]

I think too many of you are assuming people will have to choose the Wii by default because of how bad the situation with the PS3 and 360.

You guys are forgetting 2 major factors though. One of course is portables, one thing about the Japanese market throughout the years is that portables are taking over. The 2nd thing is the PS2. The PS2 has already shown signs that it could be the longest lasting system ever. When PS2, GCN, and Xbox was in this stage of their life the PS was pretty much forgotten. PS2 is still going strong. There's little cause to prevent developers to make games for both PS2 and Wii. The worse cause scenerio for Nintendo right now is if Developers continue to use th PS2 as their base. Cause one, this hurts Wii's install base and two it cause a confusion to where Developers puts high profile games. There is no real market leader at that point because the old market leader won't leave his thrown and the new market leader is a one trick pony. They might be stuck in transit for years in Japan causing many normally console games to become portable games.

My fear for the Wii isn't PS3, my fear for all the next gen consoles is DS, PS2, and PSP. (Of course only in the Japanese side of things, I think the western developers are pretty happen with the 360 and its tremendous attach rate. Everything sells on that system)

 

[ethelred]

Iwata dropped a bomb all right.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Iwata dropped a bomb all right.

You're sassier than usual today. Did you have jambalaya for breakfast?

 

[Magicpaint]

So basically every next/new gen system is doomed in Japan.

Nothing sells on them.

 

[duckroll]

So basically every next/new gen system is doomed in Japan.

Nothing sells on them.

New IPs don't sell on the DS or PSP either. It's pretty obvious we're not looking at a "one console future" but more likely "established franchises only future". :/

 

[ksamedi]

I think the Wii market has yet to mature, publishers need to create more exclusive Wii designed games to have more sales on the platform, like DQS for example. I dont think multiplatform games will do that well on Wii because most of the time the traditional versions are better. Still, its way too early to say that only minigame collections sell on Wii, I think the minigames just show the potential of the Wii much better than games that were meant for traditional pads anyway. Wiisports, Mario party, Wario and all that stuff is just much more fun with the Wiimote. Its really really stupid to say that the fastest selling console in Japan is bought by an audiance that only like minigames.