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[Crushed]

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

Yeah. Battle Chronicle did 160% of Battle Royale first day (it did 53k first week and 115k LTD btw).

Oh ok. I was comparing it to the wrong Gundam game then. I was thinking of SD Gundam I think (Whichever one tipped 300K).

 

[ethelred]

Still, its way too early to say that only minigame collections sell on Wii

Remember when it looked like a raging success would be the future for the Wii and some said, "Hey, stop a minute! We don't know that it'll last," but the response was "Once trends are established, they're basically set..."? Remember that?

I think the minigames just show the potential of the Wii much better than games that were meant for traditional pads anyway.

If minigame-a-thons sell better than anything else on the Wii and minigame-a-thons utilize the Wii controls better than traditional controls then publishers should make games that aren't minigame-a-thons why?

Its really really stupid to say that the fastest selling console in Japan is bought by an audiance that only like minigames.

And yet...

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Well, this is the 4th week where Wiî's sales are slow. What about the 5 months in 2005 where DS ~20-30k and PSP > DS ?

PSP was ahead of DS for about half of that time, and even during some of those weeks DS was at 40K or higher.

Actually DS hit even 15k in that period,

The lowest I see for DS in its first year is (by MC) 21,698 the week of April 11, 2005.

Wii hasn't fallen into a pit, but your minds are exaggerating DS's woes in retrospect.

That's a consumer question. The publisher question is: "Why develop a Wii game when our games are still selling better on the PS2?"

(Hint: you probably won't like the answer.)

Because the sales of two versions are greater than the sales of one version?

And when it finally does come time to kill off the PS2 versions (which doesn't seem like it'll be any time soon, the way the Wii is going)... it's probably not going to move to the console you want.

Even if Wii software sales don't match PS2 sales, to date they can at least be said to be the least assy of any post-PS2 home console. Wii's DBZ:BT2 has sold more than all but one third-party PS3 game in Japan: Gundam Musou.

 

[Jokeropia]

Only because last time Scamco released the Wii version months after the PS2 version! This time they released it day-and-date... you'd think that would help, but instead people are now arguing that this explains the Wii version's atrocious performance! Amazing!

Releasing at the same time could help a little, but releasing closer to the predecessor does not help. (Nor does releasing in a slow period as opposed to January launch window.)

Going by all the sales we have available in Dalthien's thread, the Wii actually lags behind the PS3 in average third party sales.

Could you double-check that? I did the math and it came out ~41,000 for Wii and ~38,000 for PS3. This is despite the fact that PS3 has gotten the biggest franchises.

 

[ethelred]

Because the sales of two versions are greater than the sales of one version?

True, true. I guess the future isn't entirely bleak: multiplatform anime shovelware will fill the gaps left in the minigamefest lineup.

Could you double-check that? I did the math and it came out ~41,000 for Wii and ~38,000 for PS3.

Please double check as your math is off on both systems.

 

[Pureauthor]

New IPs don't sell on the DS or PSP either. It's pretty obvious we're not looking at a "one console future" but more likely "established franchises only future". :/

Sekaiju no Meikyuu broke 100K. That's good, right?

Right?

 

[ksamedi]

If minigame-a-thons sell better than anything else on the Wii and minigame-a-thons utilize the Wii controls better than traditional controls then publishers should make games that aren't minigame-a-thons why?

Because
1) Not all publishers know how to make these games
2) Saturation, branching out into other genres is always a good idea for any publisher
3) There is a market for non-minigames, even if sales of these games are good games like Smash and Mario will probably all sell well over a million. If Nintendo can do it, so can third parties.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Sekaiju no Meikyuu broke 100K. That's good, right?

Right?

It's not "system driving" good, but it's obviously profitable for Atlus.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

New IPs can sell, and do sell, but maybe not always the new IPs we'd expect/like. Looking at a top five on Wii/DS would show some new IPs, but yeah...they're Brain Training, Nintendogs, and Wii Sports/Play.

Stuff like Layton/EO have been good successes, though, so it's not all tears for the classy gamer.

 

[Pureauthor]

I wonder why ASH had such an atrocious marketing campaign. Is it a part of Nintendo's new 'keep everyone in the dark and then we announce a game 2 weeks before release' direction thing?

I'm listening to 'Dyed in Blood' right now and it seems to fit the mood of this thread for some reason. Also my 'b' key is being stupid.

 

[Kildace]

Because the sales of two versions are greater than the sales of one version?

But porting a game for the Wii has a cost. Is the revenue increase larger than the increased dev. cost in each and every case?

3) There is a market for non-minigames, even if sales of these games are good games like Smash and Mario will probably all sell well over a million. If Nintendo can do it, so can third parties.

Not on the Gamecube they didn't.

 

[Jokeropia]

And yet...

If Wii Sports, Wii Play and Mario Party 8 is the benchmark, the PS2 at this point was bought by an audience that didn't like games at all. (After 10 months, no PS2 game had reached the sales of those three.)

Please double check as your math is off on both systems.

It's your turn.

 

[ksamedi]

New IP that are actually unique and doesn't play like other IP are probably the ones that are going to sell. ASH is a new IP, but i don't see how it's that different from a FF tactics title or whatever. Radical new ideas should lead to new IP, atleast thats how Nintendo works in this area and they are pretty succesfull with it.

 

[TwinsDad]

Good sales for the PSP. I kinda expected it to be higher after last week performance. But I know it most likely will not last forever. I wonder if there is a software reason for the increased sales, or if they were just waiting for a smaller PSP.

 

[Kildace]

New IP that are actually unique and doesn't play like other IP are probably the ones that are going to sell. ASH is a new IP, but i don't see how it's that different from a FF tactics title or whatever. Radical new ideas should lead to new IP, atleast thats how Nintendo works in this area and they are pretty succesfull with it.

Then I guess Zack and Wiki sales will be especially telling.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Remember when it looked like a raging success would be the future for the Wii and some said, "Hey, stop a minute! We don't know that it'll last," but the response was "Once trends are established, they're basically set..."? Remember that?

Now mathematical trends apply to genres, too? Based on this and PS2's first year, I predict its top sellers will be tournament fighters and racers, without a significant RPG presence.

If minigame-a-thons sell better than anything else on the Wii and minigame-a-thons utilize the Wii controls better than traditional controls then publishers should make games that aren't minigame-a-thons why?

Nintendo games sell better than anything else on Wii. Not all of Nintendo's successful games have been minigame fests. Which third party minigame collection has seen better success than DQ Swords, DBZ:BT2, or RE4?

But porting a game for the Wii has a cost. Is the revenue increase larger than the increased dev. cost in each and every case?

Never say always, but compared to the cost/returns associated with a PS3/X360 game in Japan, it seems more likely.

True, true. I guess the future isn't entirely bleak: multiplatform anime shovelware will fill the gaps left in the minigamefest lineup.

Are you just toying with us today? It seems disingenuous both to talk about how a game should be performing much better on Wii, then to offhandedly describe it as shovelware.

 

[Pureauthor]

New IP that are actually unique and doesn't play like other IP are probably the ones that are going to sell. ASH is a new IP, but i don't see how it's that different from a FF tactics title or whatever. Radical new ideas should lead to new IP, atleast thats how Nintendo works in this area and they are pretty succesfull with it.

Please, stop. You're embarassing yourself.

Are you just toying with us today? It seems disingenuous both to talk about how a game should be performing much better on Wii, then to offhandedly describe it as shovelware.

Plenty of shovelware games can expect great sales, you know.

 

[ethelred]

New IP that are actually unique and doesn't play like other IP are probably the ones that are going to sell. ASH is a new IP, but i don't see how it's that different from a FF tactics title or whatever.

Maybe because you haven't played the game or read the slightest thing about it? This is the freshest SRPG to come out in years.

Radical new ideas should lead to new IP, atleast thats how Nintendo works in this area and they are pretty succesfull with it.

Lawl.

It's your turn.

Oh, I did double check! PS3's average third party sales are higher, and your math is off on both systems.

 

[Jokeropia]

But porting a game for the Wii has a cost. Is the revenue increase larger than the increased dev. cost in each and every case?

With the game-buying PS2 audience steadily decreasing, yes.

Not on the Gamecube they didn't.

Wii is not Gamecube. (GC had only 1 million seller in Japan in it's lifetime - SSBM.)

Oh, I did double check! PS3's average third party sales are higher, and your math is off on both systems.

What are the numbers then? I did go through them pretty quickly, but I don't think I made any major mistakes.

 

[ethelred]

Wii is not Gamecube. (GC had only 1 million seller in Japan in it's lifetime - SSBM.)

Correct. Wii is two GameCubes.

 

[Stumpokapow]

I wonder why ASH had such an atrocious marketing campaign. Is it a part of Nintendo's new 'keep everyone in the dark and then we announce a game 2 weeks before release' direction thing?

I suspect at least some of the blame is to be placed on Mistwalker, based on the sheer length of the development process and the secrecy with which they treated it (NO! Answering "ASH is still being worked on" every six months in response to a question asked in an interview about another one of your games does not constitute effective publicity!)

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

I like to think of ASH as the Bea Arthur of strat games. Now for the fun part of the exercise, I'll let all of you playing at home figure out why.

 

[schuelma]

Re: 3rd parties on Wii.

Let's see how exclusive 3rd party Wii games do this holiday (Umbrella Chronicles I'm looking at you!) before completely writing off the market as a mini game only zone.

That said, I agree that to date the results for 3rd parties are not all that impressive.

 

[Kildace]

With the game-buying PS2 audience steadily decreasing, yes.

Only of the game buying people who had a PS2 switched to the Wii and the Wii audience is not made of lapsed / casual / non gamers who are perfectly happy with their current mini-game collection.

Wii is not Gamecube. (GC had only 1 million seller in Japan in it's lifetime - SSBM.)

I was just pointing out that this reasoning was used during the GameCube days and still, very, very few third parties managed to sell as well as Nintendo on their platform.

 

[Pureauthor]

I like to think of ASH as the Bea Arthur of strat games. Now for the fun part of the exercise, I'll let all of you playing at home figure out why.

Bea who?

Gah, stupid 'b' key.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

Re: 3rd parties on Wii.

Let's see how exclusive 3rd party Wii games do this holiday (Umbrelle Chronicles I'm looking at you!) before completely writing off the market as a mini game only zone.

That said, I agree that to date the results for 3rd parties are not all that impressive.

UC's a good one. I'm putting a lot on NiGHTS' sales.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Bea who?

You might be a little too young for the Golden Girls.

Edit: DEFINITELY too young for Maude.

 

[schuelma]

UC's a good one. I'm putting a lot on NiGHTS' sales.

As am I. It seemed to have a lot of interest at TGS. We'll see.

If after the holiday season, RE:UC, NiGHTS, and Mysterious Dungeon all bomb then I'll fully concede your point.

 

[Pureauthor]

NiGHTS is going to bomb so hard it'll make Hiroshima look like one of the dust clouds I kicked up in the sandpit when I was a kid.

Hanging any sales expectations on that game is just asking for disappointment.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

As am I. It seemed to have a lot of interest at TGS. We'll see.

If after the holiday season, RE:UC, NiGHTS, and Mysterious Dungeon all bomb then I'll fully concede your point.

This is another case where I don't want to be right, but I think I will be.

 

[Jokeropia]

Only of the game buying people who had a PS2 switched to the Wii and the Wii audience is not made of lapsed / casual / non gamers who are perfectly happy with their current mini-game collection.

Huh? I'm saying that PS2 owners are buying significantly less games now than they did a year ago, and will likely buy even less games next year. Look at DBZ for example, the PS2 version dropped and the Wii version increased from last year.

I was just pointing out that this reasoning was used during the GameCube days and still, very, very few third parties managed to sell as well as Nintendo on their platform.

Very, very few third parties sell as well as Nintendo on any platform. Nintendo is by far the most successful publisher in the world.

 

[First Children]

Opoona could be big in Japan if well advertised, imho.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

NiGHTS is going to bomb so hard it'll make Hiroshima look like one of the dust clouds I kicked up in the sandpit when I was a kid.

Hanging any sales expectations on that game is just asking for disappointment.

I think it's easy to predict a hard bomb for the game in NA, but I don't think it's out of line to have certain expectations of it in the Japanese market, where people won't dodge it because "lol the clown looks gay".

 

[charlequin]

I suspect at least some of the blame is to be placed on Mistwalker, based on the sheer length of the development process and the secrecy with which they treated it (NO! Answering "ASH is still being worked on" every six months in response to a question asked in an interview about another one of your games does not constitute effective publicity!)

Combining this with a couple really easy to spot, first-reaction problems (i.e. crummy interface design and fugly spritework on the battlemap) probably didn't help either; note how much GAF interest bled off based on the early negative comments and which wasn't particularly restored by the pretty positive in-depth impressions.

 

[schuelma]

This is another case where I don't want to be right, but I think I will be.

I have no real insight into NiGHTS or Mysterious Dungeon, but I will be very disappointed if Umbrella Chronicles bombs. Good franchise, game play that seems to fit the controller, the Zapper pack in, RE4 did over a 100K despite not being budget priced. I'm optimistic on that one.

 

[Pureauthor]

I have no real insight into NiGHTS or Mysterious Dungeon, but I will be very disappointed if Umbrella Chronicles bombs. Good franchise, game play that seems to fit the controller, the Zapper pack in, RE4 did over a 100K despite not being budget priced. I'm optimistic on that one.

I think the biggest problem here is that no one can make up their minds as to whether it'll be good or not.

 

[ksamedi]

Maybe because you haven't played the game or read the slightest thing about it? This is the freshest SRPG to come out in years.



Lawl.



Oh, I did double check! PS3's average third party sales are higher, and your math is off on both systems.

Yeah for you maybe, but i have read about it and seen vids and i don't see how it is such a different concept from what we have been playing for years now. Maybe it has a new system or gimmick that makes it feel fresh but that's not what i mean with new ideas.

Anyway, i want you to name a few third party minigames that did well. All I can see is Marioparty which is a good selling game to begin with, Wiisports a revolutionary game for the generation, Wiiplay a free game with a remote and Warioware which did a million copies on the DS.

 

[schuelma]

I think the biggest problem here is that no one can make up their minds as to whether it'll be good or not.

Hands on impressions have been much more positive lately, and it seems like there is a lot of fan service in the game.

 

[Chumly]

As am I. It seemed to have a lot of interest at TGS. We'll see.

If after the holiday season, RE:UC, NiGHTS, and Mysterious Dungeon all bomb then I'll fully concede your point.

What are bombing numbers then? Realistically I dont think NiGHTS has a chance to sell over... hell 30k. I believe that Mysterious Dungeon would be doing awesome if it passed 200k and bombed if it sells sub 100k. RE:UC would be doing awesome I think if it sold 300k+ and bombed if it sells sub 150k-maybe 200k.

 

[schuelma]

What are bombing numbers then? Realistically I dont think NiGHTS has a chance to sell over... hell 30k. I believe that Mysterious Dungeon would be doing awesome if it passed 200k and bombed if it sells sub 100k. RE:UC would be doing awesome I think if it sold 300k+ and bombed if it sells sub 150k-maybe 200k.

A more experienced Japanese Sales Ager can answer those questions definitively, but I believe NiGHTS 1 and previous Mysterious Dungeon games have done a lot better than your expectations.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

What are bombing numbers then? Realistically I dont think NiGHTS has a chance to sell over... hell 30k. I believe that Mysterious Dungeon would be doing awesome if it passed 200k and bombed if it sells sub 100k. RE:UC would be doing awesome I think if it sold 300k+ and bombed if it sells sub 150k-maybe 200k.

Wow. If NiGHTS only sells 30k, you can pretty much count on SEGA withdrawing any kind of serious support from the Wii, I can tell you that much. 200k for a Mysterious Dungeon game would be pretty bad, too. UC selling 300k would probably be...at the bottom end of expectations for Capcom.

See the problem here is you're just looking at it from your expectations/perceptions. SEGA, SE, and Capcom would not be satisfied with the type of expectations you're putting forth, and their expectations are the ones that count for future support.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

I have no real insight into NiGHTS or Mysterious Dungeon, but I will be very disappointed if Umbrella Chronicles bombs. Good franchise, game play that seems to fit the controller, the Zapper pack in, RE4 did over a 100K despite not being budget priced. I'm optimistic on that one.

I don't know about Japan, but stateside it's releasing almost day and date against Mario Galaxy.

Expect a bomb.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

I don't know about Japan, but stateside it's releasing almost day and date against Mario Galaxy.

Expect a bomb.

NiGHTS got pushed back into late December. I don't know if that's a safe distance, but it's quite a bit safer than where the placeholder was.

 

[ethelred]

Yeah for you maybe, but i have read about it and seen vids and i don't see how it is such a different concept from what we have been playing for years now. Maybe it has a new system or gimmick that makes it feel fresh but that's not what i mean with new ideas.

Anyway, i want you to name a few third party minigames that did well. All I can see is Marioparty which is a good selling game to begin with, Wiisports a revolutionary game for the generation, Wiiplay a free game with a remote...

Well golly, I know ASH isn't the sort of ravishingly new idea like "1+1=???" or "swing bat, hit ball" that Nintendo has pioneered, but having actually played the game, I think it does all right for itself.

 

[schuelma]

I don't know about Japan, but stateside it's releasing almost day and date against Mario Galaxy.

Expect a bomb.

Actually its been moved to December 18th in the U.S, and I believe a week earlier or so in Japan.

 

[ksamedi]

Wow. If NiGHTS only sells 30k, you can pretty much count on SEGA withdrawing any kind of serious support from the Wii, I can tell you that much. 200k for a Mysterious Dungeon game would be pretty bad, too. UC selling 300k would probably be...at the bottom end of expectations for Capcom.

See the problem here is you're just looking at it from your expectations/perceptions. SEGA, SE, and Capcom would not be satisfied with the type of expectations you're putting forth, and their expectations are the ones that count for future support.

Speaking sepcifically about Nights, I think Sega should not expect much from this title. I remember the first Nights to be hyped because it was one of the first 3D free roaming games on consoles and even had a gamepad designed for it. If it did sell (I don't know how much it did) it would be because of that. Now it has nothing going for it and it seems the gaming media will give it poor reviews. Sega shouldn't be expecting anything out of this. That said, I wouldn't be surprised if REUC did a million copies, its a perfect match for the Wii.

 

[tanod]

Better than Suikoden 5 and Etrian Odyssey; worse than Baten Kaitos 2 and Blue Dragon.

I'm sorry. I meant for reviews.

 

[schuelma]

UC selling 300k would probably be...at the bottom end of expectations for Capcom.
.

You really think 300K would be disappointing for UC?

I'm looking at PS2 and not seeing a RE get past 450K, much less a not main series light gun entry.

 

[duckroll]

Wow. If NiGHTS only sells 30k, you can pretty much count on SEGA withdrawing any kind of serious support from the Wii, I can tell you that much.

Sega has serious support on the Wii? Last I checked it was Sonic lulz, Sonic lols and NiGHTS. All their major franchises and emerging new IPs are on PS3 and Xbox360!