Aaron Strife
Banned
There are shortages of people who want PS3s inBlablurn said:
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Media Create Sales: Aug 3 - 9, 2009
- Thread starter cvxfreak
- Start date
Wow, where is the carnival-of-stupid.jpg when you need it?
Capcom choose the Wii for MH because of the easy porting to PSP. They´ll sell around 1,5 mil LTD, wait 6-9 months, bring the PSP port without too much additional development costs - profit. I´d expect 4 mil LTD of the port on PSP.
And the PS3 has shortages now? Wow, this thread doesn´t even need doicare anymore.
Capcom choose the Wii for MH because of the easy porting to PSP. They´ll sell around 1,5 mil LTD, wait 6-9 months, bring the PSP port without too much additional development costs - profit. I´d expect 4 mil LTD of the port on PSP.
And the PS3 has shortages now? Wow, this thread doesn´t even need doicare anymore.
Segata Sanshiro
Member
They're sold out at some shops in Akiba. That said, if I really wanted a PS3 and I was in Akiba, I could find one in about five minutes. And if I'm not in Akiba, then I just go to any department store and buy one. Heck, you can even buy the Metal Gear PS3 at some of those department stores.swerve said:
Segata Sanshiro
Member
The Carnival of the Stupid is what makes threads worthwhile. A forum without internet fights is just a blog.Hammer24 said:Well, after certain posters stopped visiting this threads they started to become readable again (and I love to read the analyses by the devoted sales-age posters), but I guess the fun is over again.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Based on the latest Media Create hardware numbers...
DS vs PSP: Weekly shares of 69.9 / 30.1 bring total shares to 68.4 / 31.6. If DS stopped selling and PSP continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 433.3 weeks (November 28, 2017).
X360 vs PS3: Weekly shares of 48.3 / 51.7 bring total shares to 24.9 / 75.1. If PS3 stopped selling and X360 continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 301.5 weeks (April 20, 2017).
PS3 vs Wii: Weekly shares of 11.0 / 89.0 bring total shares to 28.2 / 71.8. If Wii stopped selling and PS3 continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 870.2 weeks (April 4, 2026).
Week over week, Wii returns to Earth, and the biggest other change is that a PS3 drop and X360 gain put them within kissing distance.
Through the first thirty-two weeks of the year, overall sales are down. However, the systems can be split into camps of 3 up and 3 down. Here's how the year-to-date year-over-year percents stand as of now.
Wii: -56.0%
DSL+DSi: +13.6%
PS2: -52.0%
PS3: +3.9%
PSP: -46.5%
X360: +110.7%
Home hardware: -36.6%
Portable hardware: -20.3%
Sum of all hardware: -26.9%
Last year:
This year:
You may notice that X360's year-to-date year-over-year is now tanking. Five weeks ago it was over 200%, now it's at 110%. That's because we've reached the time of year when X360 started doing pretty well last year:
PS3 had one of its worst weeks this week. It has has three lower weeks: all during October 2008, immediately preceding a new bundle and Grand Theft Auto IV / Little Big Planet / Gran Turismo 5 Prologue Spec III.
Famitsu is in one of its combined two week periods, but much too interesting things are going on to just wait until next week and look at the combined numbers. I'll use the Top 20 at Yahoo, though since it's not in the same format I can't parse it as quickly.
DS vs PSP: Weekly shares of 69.9 / 30.1 bring total shares to 68.4 / 31.6. If DS stopped selling and PSP continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 433.3 weeks (November 28, 2017).
X360 vs PS3: Weekly shares of 48.3 / 51.7 bring total shares to 24.9 / 75.1. If PS3 stopped selling and X360 continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 301.5 weeks (April 20, 2017).
PS3 vs Wii: Weekly shares of 11.0 / 89.0 bring total shares to 28.2 / 71.8. If Wii stopped selling and PS3 continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 870.2 weeks (April 4, 2026).
Week over week, Wii returns to Earth, and the biggest other change is that a PS3 drop and X360 gain put them within kissing distance.
Through the first thirty-two weeks of the year, overall sales are down. However, the systems can be split into camps of 3 up and 3 down. Here's how the year-to-date year-over-year percents stand as of now.
Wii: -56.0%
DSL+DSi: +13.6%
PS2: -52.0%
PS3: +3.9%
PSP: -46.5%
X360: +110.7%
Home hardware: -36.6%
Portable hardware: -20.3%
Sum of all hardware: -26.9%
Last year:
This year:
You may notice that X360's year-to-date year-over-year is now tanking. Five weeks ago it was over 200%, now it's at 110%. That's because we've reached the time of year when X360 started doing pretty well last year:
PS3 had one of its worst weeks this week. It has has three lower weeks: all during October 2008, immediately preceding a new bundle and Grand Theft Auto IV / Little Big Planet / Gran Turismo 5 Prologue Spec III.
Famitsu is in one of its combined two week periods, but much too interesting things are going on to just wait until next week and look at the combined numbers. I'll use the Top 20 at Yahoo, though since it's not in the same format I can't parse it as quickly.
ccbfan said:
Moor-Angol
Banned
i just had 1 hour and a half for Akiba today, so my impressions are not so much accurate, but just to calm down some users, in Sofmap i noticed MH3 standard edition, and price has not been dropped as i noticed yesterday in Bic Camera.
but something that could slow sales in the next weeks is used market. i noticed a lot in Trader and in Book Off, the latter is not properly the right place you go to sell your games...
in Messe Sannoh i noticed Full Metal Alchemist was sold out, but just in that shop. did we get first day sales about this game ?
i don't know if financial crisis has a role on it, but this year i'm buying a lot of games at cheaper price...
but something that could slow sales in the next weeks is used market. i noticed a lot in Trader and in Book Off, the latter is not properly the right place you go to sell your games...
in Messe Sannoh i noticed Full Metal Alchemist was sold out, but just in that shop. did we get first day sales about this game ?
i don't know if financial crisis has a role on it, but this year i'm buying a lot of games at cheaper price...
Kurosaki Ichigo said:
Uh?
You know, your problem is that you don't play Monster Hunter, and because that you don't understand why it jumped from being a 200k PS2 game to be a multi-million PSP game. Others and myself has explained, months ago, how this happened, and how the elemments that made this happen couldn't be reproduced in a home console.
No, most players don't care about the home version, never cared of Monster Hunter until their friends appeared in the school with it and started played together. Yes, that success increased the userbase and got more people interested, which combined with a huge promotional campaign will push MH3 to a million of units, big success IMO. But when MH3P is released (are you even doubting it, do you really need confirmation to know this?), it will easily pass three millions because the guys who bought the Wii version will buy the PSP one too, and the guys that never cared of the home version, will buy it to keep playing with their pals.
The problem of some people in these threads is that they think this is a PSP Vs Wii discussion, while it´s a Portable Vs Home discussion. The home version of Monster Hunter, in any console, it´s just extra money for Capcom, but Monster Hunter is a portable franchise and won't be affected by home releases.
test_account
XP-39C²
Doesnt Wii Fit Plus add anything that genereally appeals to "everyone" who already bought Wii Fit, like more excercises etc.?Datschge said:
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Famitsu Software Stuff
This week's hotness is of course Monster Hunter 3. Though different trackers see things differently, by Famitsu's reckoning in its first two days MH3 became the best-selling single console Monster Hunter SKU.
However, it doesn't beat out PS2 MH2 when combined with its Best rerelease.
It also has a smaller start than the two PSP versions of Monster Hunter 2: MHP2 (412) and MHP2G (2838)
In its fourth week Dragon Quest IX continues outpacing Dragon Quest VIII. Though not pictured here, it's worth noting that through week three Dragon Quest VII is slightly higher: 3.42 M to 3.39 M.
Tomodachi Collection is a weird game: its weekly sales keep going up. This seventh week is its best since its first. I don't know what the record is for continuing to increase each week, and frankly it seems like it'd be a bit of a pain to write something to try to weed such knowledge out of the database. However, if you know of others like this it could be interesting to compare them. Keep in mind that it's not so unusual for this to happen for a game that releases shortly before the end-of-year holiday rush, and then rides the general bump.
At 51K, Puyo Puyo 7 seems to be the best Puyo launch in quite some time. Among all on modern systems I only see one with a greater launch (2004's Puyo Puyo Fever on PS2), and one other over 40K (2006's Puyo Puyo! on DS).
Gears of War 2 starts bigger than its predecessor.
Armored Core 3 Portable for PSP starts off quite a bit better than PSP's other Armored Core: Formula Front. However, that was a launch game.
The new DS Chibi-Robo (3638) isn't performing quite as well as the DS original (109), but better than either the GCN original (1763) or its Wii rerelease (3605).
This week's hotness is of course Monster Hunter 3. Though different trackers see things differently, by Famitsu's reckoning in its first two days MH3 became the best-selling single console Monster Hunter SKU.
However, it doesn't beat out PS2 MH2 when combined with its Best rerelease.
It also has a smaller start than the two PSP versions of Monster Hunter 2: MHP2 (412) and MHP2G (2838)
In its fourth week Dragon Quest IX continues outpacing Dragon Quest VIII. Though not pictured here, it's worth noting that through week three Dragon Quest VII is slightly higher: 3.42 M to 3.39 M.
Tomodachi Collection is a weird game: its weekly sales keep going up. This seventh week is its best since its first. I don't know what the record is for continuing to increase each week, and frankly it seems like it'd be a bit of a pain to write something to try to weed such knowledge out of the database. However, if you know of others like this it could be interesting to compare them. Keep in mind that it's not so unusual for this to happen for a game that releases shortly before the end-of-year holiday rush, and then rides the general bump.
At 51K, Puyo Puyo 7 seems to be the best Puyo launch in quite some time. Among all on modern systems I only see one with a greater launch (2004's Puyo Puyo Fever on PS2), and one other over 40K (2006's Puyo Puyo! on DS).
Gears of War 2 starts bigger than its predecessor.
Armored Core 3 Portable for PSP starts off quite a bit better than PSP's other Armored Core: Formula Front. However, that was a launch game.
The new DS Chibi-Robo (3638) isn't performing quite as well as the DS original (109), but better than either the GCN original (1763) or its Wii rerelease (3605).
Kurosaki Ichigo
Member
I already explained it in a later post, but hey, if you don't agree with me its ok, but just because you have a different opinion I'm not going to change mine.Acosta said:
Do you think the portable release numbers won't be affected at all by a previous console release? Ok, but I disagree. My opinion is that MHP2G benefited from MH2G not existing. You can disagree with that. No one can prove who is right because we can only speculate what would have happened in a different scenario.
Thus, in the hypothetical MHP3 scenario (not because I doubt it but because it hasn't happened) I think it would affect it negatively, or from the other point of view, if MHP3 came with no MH3 before it, I think it would affect it positively. If you don't share my opinion, its really fine but don't expect me to buy your opinion as a fact, its not.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
I think no. It sold not-quite-300K in the last year, so at that rate it would take nearly two more years. However, it's not just selling at a constant rate, but slowing down with time. So I think it peters out before then. But maybe the Famitsu 2012 Top 500 will show me wrong.cvxfreak said:
Kurosaki Ichigo
Member
Ah, so it was just another insult bait. Continue to share the absolute truth with the carnival of stupid, then.Acosta said:
Kurosaki Ichigo said:
Where is the insult? Opinions are not free of criticism, and so far MH3 has sold as I expected it did months ago, so I feel pretty sure about my opinion on this particular field. If you bring a hypothesis that is just impossible to prove and has no solid base, what do you expect?
MHP2G it´s the best sold game because the Monster Hunter Mania was its peak and people were buying PSP to be able to play it their friends. As simple as that. Home versions are irrelevant in the progression of the popularity of the series.
lowlylowlycook
Member
Wait, the first shipment for GT is going to be less that 250k?
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Some of those Famitsu estimates seem low, but this one seems high, and simple enough to demonstrate why I think so.
New main entries
Ruby/Sapphire: 5.34 million
Diamond/Pearl: 5.69 million, sure to grow some more
Change: 7%
New third entry
Emerald: 2.10 million
Platinum: 2.46 million and growing
Change: 17+%
Remake entries
FireRed/LeafGreen: 2.99 million
HeartGold/SoulSilver: 3.60 - 4.40 million
Change: 20% - 47% ?
Pokémon on DS is doing better than on GBA, but not THAT much better.
New main entries
Ruby/Sapphire: 5.34 million
Diamond/Pearl: 5.69 million, sure to grow some more
Change: 7%
New third entry
Emerald: 2.10 million
Platinum: 2.46 million and growing
Change: 17+%
Remake entries
FireRed/LeafGreen: 2.99 million
HeartGold/SoulSilver: 3.60 - 4.40 million
Change: 20% - 47% ?
Captain Smoker
Member
All-Time Top15 Publisher in Japan - Update (I've added 119 games since the last breakdown).
Total number of games: 6,443
Total number of units: 906,476,886
Average: 140,692
Number of games / Publisher / Units total / Average / Total market share / Growth of market share since last breakdown
For Comparison the last update: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=16898504&postcount=516
I haven't added that much games this time, but I've updated all PS2-numbers and GBA-numbers, that's a ton of new units (+17,500,000 units), even the average of all games increased.
Capcom has passed now Square and Square Enix passed Enix. ^^
Total number of games: 6,443
Total number of units: 906,476,886
Average: 140,692
Number of games / Publisher / Units total / Average / Total market share / Growth of market share since last breakdown
Code:
429x Nintendo 284,606,178 663,418 31.40% (- 0.45%)
638x Konami 70,631,588 110,708 7.79% (+ 0.06%)
320x Capcom 54,743,878 171,075 6.04% (+ 0.10%)
98x Square 52,884,887 539,642 5.83% (- 0.12%)
307x SCE 49,308,031 160,612 5.44% (- 0.01%)
315x Bandai 39,417,829 125,136 4.35% (- 0.01%)
371x Sega 38,138,798 102,800 4.21% (+ 0.01%)
133x Square Enix 36,139,800 271,728 3.99% (+ 0.03%)
52x Enix 35,703,760 686,611 3.94% (- 0.08%)
167x Namco 32,073,170 192,055 3.54% (- 0.02%)
231x Bandai Namco 24,845,110 107,555 2.74% (+ 0.02%)
212x Koei 19,961,736 94,159 2.20% (+ 0.04%)
134x Hudson 18,806,282 140,345 2.08% (-------)
134x Banpresto 18,442,979 137,634 2.04% (+ 0.04%)
85x Atlus 6,829,665 80,349 0.75% (+ 0.01%)
2817x Others 123,943,195 43,998 13.67% (+ 0.40%)For Comparison the last update: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=16898504&postcount=516
I haven't added that much games this time, but I've updated all PS2-numbers and GBA-numbers, that's a ton of new units (+17,500,000 units), even the average of all games increased.
Capcom has passed now Square and Square Enix passed Enix. ^^
Moor-Angol
Banned
i think some estimates are too high (Vesperia PS3, just to say one) and some others are low (GTmobile won't have legs ? During holiday season ? When probably GT5 might be released ?)
and Wii Fit Plus just 1,8mln ??? a 2000yen game for 3,5mln Wii Fit users ???
I would be very happy if Bayonetta reaches 100k
and Wii Fit Plus just 1,8mln ??? a 2000yen game for 3,5mln Wii Fit users ???
I would be very happy if Bayonetta reaches 100k
charlequin
Banned
Kurosaki Ichigo said:
No, they really won't. A home version cannot provide the key element of the series (local multiplayer with other people who bought the game) to the fanbase of the first two games. Not one single person is going to skip buying the portable version due to playing through the single-player mode on the home console version, because the single-player version is not what the game is about.
bttb said:
Wow, they are way more bearish on these than we've been. 150k LTD on 4WoL would be nothing short of a complete fiasco.
wat. :lol
JoshuaJSlone
Member
This shouldn't be surprising, but I just took one of my infrequent looks at the top third-party portable sellers of this gen and found the top of the list funny.
1. Dragon Quest
2. Monster Hunter
3. Monster Hunter
4. Dragon Quest
5. Dragon Quest
6. Dragon Quest
Actually, seeing DQ IX's number again I just realized that it's the most recent week (Famitsu week) of software that puts it over MHP2G+Best.
1. Dragon Quest
2. Monster Hunter
3. Monster Hunter
4. Dragon Quest
5. Dragon Quest
6. Dragon Quest
Actually, seeing DQ IX's number again I just realized that it's the most recent week (Famitsu week) of software that puts it over MHP2G+Best.
You know, looking at that again, even the top twenty is still pretty hilariously stacked:JoshuaJSlone said:
1. Dragon Quest
2. Monster Hunter
3. Monster Hunter
4. Dragon Quest
5. Dragon Quest
6. Dragon Quest
7. Tamagotchi
8. Oshare Majo
9. Final Fantasy
10. Layton
11. Final Fantasy
12. Monster Hunter
13. Layton
14. Final Fantasy
15. Layton
16. Tamagotchi
17. Monster Hunter
18. Phantasy Star
19. Final Fantasy
20. Kanken
Dragon Quest: 4 Titles
Monster Hunter: 4 Titles
Final Fantasy: 4 Titles
Layton: 3 Titles
Tamagotchi: 2 Titles
Others: 3 Titles
As a side note, why did Tamagotchi Corner Shop 3 do so badly btw? Did Tamagotchis fall out of popularity in 2007?'
Edit: Removed Bomberman since it apparently just got around a million sales removed from it. :lol
Keep in mind that in general the Famitsu Total Forecast does not take into account word of mouth for titles of unproven quality. Notice how unless it's a licensed title, a sequel or a remake, the TF is generally the FS estimate.
The SMT:SJ FS is within our expectations for what it will do within the first day or so, and maybe a little low for the first week. The 4WoL FS is as I feared before, a lot lower than most people are expecting.
The SMT:SJ FS is within our expectations for what it will do within the first day or so, and maybe a little low for the first week. The 4WoL FS is as I feared before, a lot lower than most people are expecting.
charlequin
Banned
duckroll said:
Hmmm, I see. Makes sense, but I'm still hopeful for quite a bit more. 500k might be wishful thinking, but I really do think it'll clear FFTA2 and FFCCEoT without a problem.
doicare said:
"Over 200k" is very different from "330k." I don't think that many people actually care about Tales anymore. :lol
Great work as always JoshuaJSlone. Can you see what games have performed similarly to Tomodachi Collection? It reminds me a bit of the first brain training game, but Tomodachi is clearly on a higher level so far.
I can't remember any Bomberman selling that good. What is it?
Nirolak said:
I can't remember any Bomberman selling that good. What is it?
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Yeah, it appears to be a horrible typo. :lol I'm going to look now for what that number was supposed to go to, but for now I've saved a static image for the game with the apparent greatest legs ever.jj984jj said:
EDIT: Ahh, Cooking Navi. Looks like the confusion is from them being DS games released on the same day, with ! in their name.
Touch！ボンバーマンランド
しゃべる！ DSお料理ナビ
You don't see the links? It's the best version of this:JoshuaJSlone said:
http://garaph.info/softwareindividual.php?gameid=104
Edit: Oh you mean the gigantic number. :lol
JoshuaJSlone
Member
About the "like game X, but on a higher level", I've thought it would be neat to be able to check for something like that. Say, games that after 3 weeks have increased 90% from their first week total or whatever. However, it seems like that would be trickier than the current method, where we can just search for absolute numbers. There is the Legs Rankings which shows where games end up relative to their first known number, but for now the two parts don't meet.Rock_Man said:
Anyway, here are a couple attempts to match it up using the actual sales.
Matching the first four weeks, +/-20K of the LTD each week. We get four other results, but none continue behaving like Tomodachi. That purple line poking up at the left for game 3609? That's Tomodachi, which didn't slow down like the others.
Trying to match it using weeks 1, 3, 5, and 7. Sticking with +/- 20K doesn't get any results, but that is pretty strict. 30K, still nothing. 40K, nope. 50K... OK, in what is a crazy crazy coincidence considering my last post... the closest game I can find to Tomodachi Collection is Cooking Navi. :lol
Going even looser to try to find more than one match, here are weeks 1, 3, 5, and 7 with each match being +/- 70K. This brings in Pokémon Colosseum (1226), Kirby Squeak Squad (194), and Flash Focus (227).
EDIT: Regarding Tales, 300+K is hard for any entry in the series to do in the last few years. Let alone on the #4 system when the corest of Tales fans have already purchased nearly 200K copies on the #5 system.
test_account
XP-39C²
I am not sure that there is a shortage of people who wants a PS3, but the current PS3 pricetag is stopping several of people from buying a PS3. I guess that you are taking the PS3's pricetag into concideration when you say that there is a shortage of people who wants a PS3 eventhough that you didnt mentioned the pricetag though, but i just wanted to mention this anywayAaron Strife said:
lowlylowlycook said:
That seems a bit low indeed. But i think that the PSP Go is out when GT Portable is coming out, and maybe Sony will ship lower copy because of this, because maybe several of people will buy and download GT Portable from the Playstation Store instead of buying a retail UMD copy?Moor-Angol said:
I might be wrong, but i am under the impression that Wii Fit Plus doesnt really have that that much new content added compared to the content that already excist in Wii Fit. Maybe several of people dont see the too much need to buy Wii Fit Plus because of this? I guess it can go the other way as well though, since when Wii Fit Plus only cost 2000yen, maybe alot of people will buy itMoor-Angol said:
I think that it shall be interesting to see how much Wii Fit Plus will sell test_account said:I am not sure that there is a shortage of people who wants a PS3, but the current PS3 pricetag is stopping several of people from buying a PS3. I guess that you are taking the PS3's pricetag into concideration when you say that there is a shortage of people who wants a PS3 eventhough that you didnt mentioned the pricetag though, but i just wanted to mention this anyway
The PS3's price tag isn't really a relevant bullet point at this juncture. In the beginning, it could be argued that no one wanted a PS3 because it was too expensive. Now no one wants a PS3 because its years of stagnation under a crippling price point have left it devoid of the kind of quality games that made people actually want the PS3's predecessor.
So the price point is still, like, at the root of its problems, but it's so distant and far removed now from the present reality of why no one wants a PS3 that it doesn't make any sense any longer to mention it when explaining why no one wants a PS3.
But thanks for mentioning it anyway.