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[rpmurphy]

Because all the consoles when you actually sit down and look at them in a fair and objective way have roughly the same amount and same severity of issues (all be it slightly different ones), yet despite this the tiniest of issues with sony this generation gets blown way out of proportion and continuously bashed over the head, whilst most of the other consoles issues don't get treated as harshly.

It's just a legacy of the positioning of the PS3 as the superior market-leader-becoming console. When the dust settled, most people found the reality to be rather amusing and as funny troll material.

 

[Gravijah]

Because all the consoles when you actually sit down and look at them in a fair and objective way have roughly the same amount and same severity of issues (all be it slightly different ones), yet despite this the tiniest of issues with sony this generation gets blown way out of proportion and continuously bashed over the head, whilst most of the other consoles issues don't get treated as harshly.

Sony doesn't get treated unfairly. They were the market leader for two generations, absolutely demolishing the competition, and the expectations for them were extremely high. They haven't lived up to them, and the higher standards people have for them is biting them in the ass.

 

[markatisu]

How much does a used copy of Monster Hunter Tri cost compare to a new copy? I am curious if it is cheaper to buy a new copy (i see that some stores has a pricedrop on the standalone MH3 game) or buy a used copy. If it is cheaper to buy a new copy, then these sold copies will be tracked by sales trackers, and MH3 might reach 1 million copies sold faster

I wonder if that is more behind BIC's super price drop, to combat the used sales

Still does not change the fact that the standalone was overshipped, but it would at least help to explain the expediency in BIC wanting to reduce just that stock

 

[doicare]

Sony doesn't get treated unfairly. They were the market leader for two generations, absolutely demolishing the competition, and the expectations for them were extremely high. They haven't lived up to them, and the higher standards people have for them is biting them in the ass.

The bottom line is you and clearly others think sony should get treated more harshly because they used to dominate the market, i don't think that's a good enough reason to be overly harsh.

 

[test_account]

I wonder if that is more behind BIC's super price drop, to combat the used sales

Still does not change the fact that the standalone was overshipped, but it would at least help to explain the expediency in BIC wanting to reduce just that stock

Ye, that might be possible, i havnt thought about this. Ye, it seems like they overshipped the standalone version of MH3 indeed as you say.

Hopefully the used market wont stop MH3 to reach at least 1 million copies sold, since i think it would be cool to see MH3 passing 1 million copies sold

 

[Gravijah]

The bottom line is you and clearly others think sony should get treated more harshly because they used to dominate the market, i don't think that's a good enough reason to be overly harsh.

I'm not any harsher towards Sony, personally. But plenty of people are, and honestly, I don't see the problem with it. What goes around, comes around in the end, and Nintendo and Microsoft will be in the same positions in the future, and the same thing is going to happen.

Edit: BTW, why is it OK to be overly defensive towards Sony, but not OK to be harsh?

 

[Grampasso]

Intriguing.

Ahah, we both posted on the same italian forum where I started a M-Create thread which reached epic proportions (we didn't create a thread every week, we just kept using the original one). I posted in that thread for more than a year and became quite a legend (or so :lol ), but suddenly work came around so I couldn't post anymore and Gas took my place. When I started having enough time again to post it didn't seem fair to me to do so, so I just left the things as they were

 

[Busaiku]

I wonder if that is more behind BIC's super price drop, to combat the used sales

Aren't there laws against selling used games in Japan?

 

[CorwinB]

Sony doesn't get treated unfairly. They were the market leader for two generations, absolutely demolishing the competition, and the expectations for them were extremely high. They haven't lived up to them, and the higher standards people have for them is biting them in the ass.

It also doesn't help that Sony entered this generation with some of the most extreme display of corporate arrogance that this industry has ever seen. Short of "John Romero wants you to be his bitches", I can't think of any declaration that compares to "This generation starts when we say so", "People will get another job to buy themselves a PS3" or "We can sell the five first millions without any games".

You can also add to that the extremely high expectations set by E3 2005 and the well-deserved backlash of E3 2006.

 

[doicare]

I'm not any harsher towards Sony, personally. But plenty of people are, and honestly, I don't see the problem with it. What goes around, comes around in the end, and Nintendo and Microsoft will be in the same positions in the future, and the same thing is going to happen.

Edit: BTW, why is it OK to be overly defensive towards Sony, but not OK to be harsh?

The point being the reason why i might seem to be a bit overly defensive about sony is that a lot of people are being overly harsh towards them and i don't think it's justified.

 

[Johann]

Aren't there laws against selling used games in Japan?

I'm pretty sure it is the practice of videogame renting that is combated. The Japanese used game market essentially acts as a rental market with high buyback prices and good conditions for used games.

 

[lowlylowlycook]

The bottom line is you and clearly others think sony should get treated more harshly because they used to dominate the market, i don't think that's a good enough reason to be overly harsh.

Look, they were stupid enough to try and launch a console a 2x the launch price of their previous console, they have already lost more money than the managed to make in the PS2 era, and the only reason that the PS3 didn't completely collapse is the emergence of the de facto PS360 platform.

But yeah, let's not be too harsh.

 

[Dragona Akehi]

Now with that lovely meltdown over with:

With used copies of MH3 already out and about, I'm thinking that it won't hit 1 million properly until the inevitable MH3 BEST edition.

 

[schuelma]

Now with that lovely meltdown over with:

With used copies of MH3 already out and about, I'm thinking that it won't hit 1 million properly until the inevitable MH3 BEST edition.

We'll see. This week's sales should give a good indicator. What wouldn't shock me is if it goes off the charts around 900K and then sells enough to break a million months later- we know the stock is there (lol), and I imagine eventually it will almost sell through, even if at a pretty massive price reduction.

 

[markatisu]

We'll see. This week's sales should give a good indicator. What wouldn't shock me is if it goes off the charts around 900K and then sells enough to break a million months later- we know the stock is there (lol), and I imagine eventually it will almost sell through, even if at a pretty massive price reduction.

This week should be telling, people fail to remember that MHG Wii stayed on the chart for almost 2 months before going completely off the Top 30

After the fuckup/strange 1st week (with the 60k difference) we do not have a real clue what the week to week drop off is going to be

 

[HK-47]

Don't you think it could get a decent boost when Wii version will be out? That's pretty common when a sequel or spinoff comes out to boost sales of the last version, in particular if the game had already had a good amount of success. But maybe this time since 5m+ is freaking huge there won't be many people wanting it :lol

Most games get their legs killed by sequels. Its much rarer for a boost to occur, and rarer still that the boost is sustained. PW is a good examples of a series that gets boosts when asequel come out, but the games also share characters and plot lines, so it necessary to get previous versions. And the boost is not sustained for longer than a few weeks.

 

[donny2112]

we both posted on the same italian forum

Forumeye?

 

[BishopLamont]

BishopLamont is a massive nintendo fanboy who's had a problem with me ever since i posted a theory in a pal charts thread saying that nintendo products get a boost in sales from kids being on their school holidays (backed it up with proof) and he can't stand nintendo being associated with kids or being 'kiddy'. Despite me being very good at making sales predictions and having sales contacts (number 1 npd sales predictor in 2008, top 3 so far this year and most of my japanese predictions are very close), he and a few other posters have a problem with me because of their fanboyism and they make snide remarks when i post.

:lol

You just had to go public with it again after the fail pm.

 

[Grampasso]

Forumeye?

Nope, GBArl

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

The used copies of MH3 are selling for a few hundred yen under the "slightly reduced" price of 4800 yen, so about 4500 yen each. The used copies must be moving quite briskly to have a price like that.

 

[Tenbatsu]

The used copies of MH3 are selling for a few hundred yen under the "slightly reduced" price of 4800 yen, so about 4500 yen each. The used copies must be moving quite briskly to have a price like that.

Interesting.

 

[Brofist]

The used copies of MH3 are selling for a few hundred yen under the "slightly reduced" price of 4800 yen, so about 4500 yen each. The used copies must be moving quite briskly to have a price like that.

I've seen that happen with plenty of games. Off the top of my head Demon's Soul is one game that has a used priced tag that's always only a few hundred yen under the new price.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

I've seen that happen with plenty of games. Off the top of my head Demon's Soul is one game that has a used priced tag that's always only a few hundred yen under the new price.

Yep. And when that happens alongside new copies still being readily available, it shows good demand for the used ones. It's pretty funny in this case though because people could just go to Bic Camera and get it for 3000 yen.

 

[sprsk]

I've seen that happen with plenty of games. Off the top of my head Demon's Soul is one game that has a used priced tag that's always only a few hundred yen under the new price.

Yup, and that sucks

 

[Man God]

I see, so Demon Souls is on the every popular Nintendo game ever/ most popular games in the US used price scheme, eh?

One of my favorite instances of this was trying to find a used copy of Melee in November of 2007 to replace a copy that my friend had stolen from a SSB:M tourney.

It was $44 dollars used. I found it new at Best Buy for $30. :lol

 

[cvxfreak]

The used copies of MH3 are selling for a few hundred yen under the "slightly reduced" price of 4800 yen, so about 4500 yen each. The used copies must be moving quite briskly to have a price like that.

Wow. I'd rather just go earn some points at Bic/Yodo or something.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

Wow. I'd rather just go earn some points at Bic/Yodo or something.

Indeed. Though I guess if you have stuff to trade anyway, it might make sense.

 

[cvxfreak]

Heh, from Capcom's Q&A session with its investors:

Q.
Do you think “Monster Hunter Tri” will reach its domestic sales target in the second quarter?

A.
If all goes well, we believe that the initial shipment will sell out, but we can’t assume anything about subsequent repeat sales until we actually see the sell-through figures. We will continue to deliberate on the direction of our future shipments, taking into account the sell-through figures for August.

 

[Datschge]

Wouldn't most used copies of MH3 lack the included free month for the online mode?

 

[Dragona Akehi]

Heh, from Capcom's Q&A session with its investors:

God damn, don't you love phrases where you understand the individual words and yet somehow the actual sentence means absolutely nothing?

 

[BishopLamont]

God damn, don't you love phrases where you understand the individual words and yet somehow the actual sentence means absolutely nothing?

A.
If all goes well, we believe that the initial shipment will sell out, but we can’t assume anything about subsequent repeat sales until we actually see the sell-through figures. We will continue to deliberate on the direction of our future shipments, taking into account the sell-through figures for August.

Pretty straight forward to me, they want to see how the legs are after August is done to see whether they need more shipments.

 

[Chris1964]

A little irrelevant but I found something interesting about Wii Fit and Wii Sports Resort launch weeks while I was updating my m-create database.

System / Title / Publisher / Release date / Weekly sales / Days on sale / Shipment sellthrough
Wii / Wii Fit / Nintendo / 01/12/07 / 261,226 / 2 / 79.92
Wii / Wii Sports Resort / Nintendo / 25/06/09 / 359,690 / 4 / 84.98

The impression that Wii Fit was in short supply during its launch seems to be wrong. Maybe that was the case the following weeks but not the opening. That makes Wii Sports Resort number even more impressive considering the time of the year it came out, the declining sales of Wii and generally the situation Wii was in Japan then and now.

About famitsu estimates. These guys are a complete joke. This is what cvxfreak had posted back in October 2007.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=8269334&postcount=1

From the latest issue, just glancing at a couple pages. Might be of some interest to Sales-Age. There are two analysts (Sakurai and Murakami), and they provide various reasons for their predictions (series history, hype, platform popularity), but here are the numbers expected. They also talk about games like MGS4, but provide no numbers.

Nintendo DS

Final Fantasy IV
S: 1,200,000
M: 1,000,000

Final Fantasy Tactics A2: Fuketsu no Grimoire
S: 600,000
M: 500,000

Mario Party DS
S: 1,000,000
M: 1,200,000

PSP

Minna no Golf Portable 2
S: 500,000 - 600,000
M: 500,000

PS3

Shin Sangoku Musou 5
S: 300,000
M: 300,000

PS2

World Soccer Winning Eleven 2008
S: 900,000 - 1,000,000

SD Gundam Generation Spirits
S: 400,000 - 500,000
M: 300,000

Super Robot Wars OG Gaiden
S: 400,000 - 500,000
M: 300,000

Wii

Super Mario Galaxy
S: 1,500,000 - 2,000,000
M: 1,000,000+

Biohazard Umbrella Chronicles
S: 500,000 - 600,000
M: 500,000

Wii Fit
S: 2,000,000 - 2,500,000
M: 1,500,000+

Xbox 360

Lost Odyssey
S: 200,000 - 300,000

Ace Combat 6
S: 100,000 - 150,000

I can't believe they track sales so many years, have obviously preorders numbers and they manage to have worse predictions even than doicare.

EDIT: And some missing predictions, even worse than these.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=8271498&postcount=101

NiGHTS: 200k
Dragon Quest IV: 1m - 1.5m
Tales of Innocent: 200k
GT5P: 800k - 1m

 

[test_account]

The used copies of MH3 are selling for a few hundred yen under the "slightly reduced" price of 4800 yen, so about 4500 yen each. The used copies must be moving quite briskly to have a price like that.

Ah ok, i thought maybe the used copies of MH3 was a bit cheaper. Thanks for the info! Then it might be best to just buy a new copy for a few hundred yen more indeed as you mentioned

Wouldn't most used copies of MH3 lack the included free month for the online mode?

Good question, how do you get a free month of online play in MH3? Is there a code inside the box that you registerd online with or something, or when you launch the online part in MH3?

A little irrelevant but I found something interesting about Wii Fit and Wii Sports Resort launch weeks while I was updating my m-create database.

System / Title / Publisher / Release date / Weekly sales / Days on sale / Shipment sellthrough
Wii / Wii Fit / Nintendo / 01/12/07 / 261,226 / 2 / 79.92
Wii / Wii Sports Resort / Nintendo / 25/06/09 / 359,690 / 4 / 84.98

The impression that Wii Fit was in short supply during its launch seems to be wrong. Maybe that was the case the following weeks but not the opening. That makes Wii Sports Resort number even more impressive considering the time of the year it came out, the declining sales of Wii and generally the situation Wii was in Japan then and now.

Ye, this is interesting indeed, thanks for posting this Speaking about sellthrough, are there any games that have had a reported 100% sellthrough, or at least close to it?

About famitsu estimates. These guys are a complete joke. This is what cvxfreak had posted back in October 2007.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=8269334&postcount=1

I can't believe they track sales so many years, have obviously preorders numbers and they manage to have worse predictions even than doicare.

EDIT: And some missing predictions, even worse than these.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=8271498&postcount=101

Ye, some of these predictions are a bit surprising to me, especially the GT5P one. I wonder why they thought that Gran Turismo 5 Prologue would sell more than GT4P, when GT4P cost less (i think so at least) and were on a much more popular console (PS2). Maybe they thought that people were "hungry" for a new Gran Turismo game, eventhough that it was a prologue version?

But they are relativelly correct about some of their predictions, at least in my opinion Games that i think that they (or at least one of the predictors) were relativelly correct with are Shin Sangoku Musou 5, World Soccer Winning Eleven 2008, SD Gundam Generation Spirits, Super Robot Wars OG Gaiden and Ace Combat 6. I know that they might be off with like 70k-100k with some of their predictions, but at least they arent off with several of 100k's compared to how they are with some of their other predictions.

I think that would also count Mario Party DS and Wii Fit a little bit well. Although that their numbers are a bit far of from how good these games has sold so far, at least they did predict that these 2 games would sell good. I think that it was difficult to know exactly how popular and how good Mario Party DS and Wii Fit would sell.

By the way, when you say "even than doicare", do you mean his predictions regarding the games in the quotes that you posted, or about predictions in general? If it is about predictions in general, i thought that his predictions were in general pretty realistic and some of the predictions were fairy or pretty close to how the games sells/sold? Maybe i am missunderstanding something here since english isnt my first language, sorry, but to me, "even than doicare" makes it sounds like his prediction is far off and wrong. This is if you mean his predictions in general that is. If you mean his predictions regarding the same games in the quotes that you posted, then i dont know what he predicted for those games, if he had some predictions for these game that is.

 

[Tenbatsu]

Good question, how do you get a free month of online play in MH3? Is there a code inside the box that you registerd online with or something, or when you launch the online part in MH3?

1) The over of the campaign.

2) This am not sure, maybe every Wii is entitled to 20 days FREE as the game is tie down to your Wii shop channel.

 

[Jonnyram]

Pretty straight forward to me, they want to see how the legs are after August is done to see whether they need more shipments.

They basically said, "We don't know how it's going to keep selling, but if it sells well, it will sell well." Like Dragona said, it means nothing.

 

[markatisu]

Wouldn't most used copies of MH3 lack the included free month for the online mode?

Monster Hunter on Wii does not work like that (at least MHG did not), its all tied to your Wii Shop Account

Every Wii should be entitled to 21 free days online, not every copy of the game disc

 

[Stumpokapow]

Chris, wow.

Those are some truly disastrous predictions!

 

[BishopLamont]

They basically said, "We don't know how it's going to keep selling, but if it sells well, it will sell well." Like Dragona said, it means nothing.

They said they believe the first shipment will sell out but they're not sure about anything beyond that. Sure it's the usual vague PR fluff, but what else can they really say beyond that at this point without sounding too bullshit? They're pretty much in the same boat as everyone else when it comes to MH3 sales.

Anyway, what's the goal for domestic sales? We know 2M is their WW figure.

 

[markatisu]

Anyway, what's the goal for domestic sales? We know 2M is their WW figure.

It would have to be 1.0-1.5m, with the remaining 500-1m being broken up between US and UK (which I think is quite feasible with a proper push and free online given the install base in each)

Given MH past perfomance overseas, they are probably hoping to sell more than 1m in JP to break up the difficulty in other regions

 

[obonicus]

They said they believe the first shipment will sell out

"If all goes well"

 

[BishopLamont]

It would have to be 1.0-1.5m, with the remaining 500-1m being broken up between US and UK (which I think is quite feasible with a proper push and free online given the install base in each)


Given MH past perfomance overseas, they are probably hoping to sell more than 1m in JP to break up the difficulty in other regions

Well it looks like it won't get past 1M by much, if at all, so they better focus on the other markets if they want to meet their goals. We get to see if portable sales translate to console sales again! (MHF is selling well in Germany). :lol

"If all goes well"

I'm sure you're good at spotting Wally (or Waldo depending on where you live).

 

[markatisu]

Well it looks like it won't get past 1M by much, if at all, so they better focus on the other markets if they want to meet their goals. We get to see if portable sales translate to console sales again! (MHF is selling well in Germany). :lol

Well Iwata said he really wanted to make MH successful in the US and EU, so we will see how much they help out with advertising and pushing the product.

Even shit games sell 400-500k LTD in the US on the Wii, I think if they continue to have paid online oveseas it will kill it fast.

 

[Die Squirrel Die]

Well Iwata said he really wanted to make MH successful in the US and EU, so we will see how much they help out with advertising and pushing the product.

Even shit games sell 400-500k LTD in the US on the Wii, I think if they continue to have paid online oveseas it will kill it fast.

This is true, getting the online right is going to be critical for launching the series in the west. Still if they might be expecting too much forwestern sales to make up the difference in their prediction, if it's only going to include a month or so of sales. Still if 150k American Wii owners are game starved enough to snap up The Conduit, MH3 should be able to pull in a decent number eventually.

 

[DangerousDave]

Well, what's the ratio of MHP games in Japan and US? Maybe we can extrapolate from there the possible MH3 US sells.

 

[markatisu]

Well, what's the ratio of MHP games in Japan and US? Maybe we can extrapolate from there the possible MH3 US sells.

I do not think that will work, we have no idea what the US sales are for the latest edition in the US, and since the console version has been even less popular than the handheld its going to be very difficult to guesstimate

We also do not know what kind of ad campaign, incentives, or anything else is coming. If Capcom has a CC Pro Bundle (despite Nintendo claiming its not coming here) and free online, it could change how it sells a great deal.

 

[JakOfTheShadows]

Well, what's the ratio of MHP games in Japan and US? Maybe we can extrapolate from there the possible MH3 US sells.

I'm not sure how well that would work.

I do not think that will work, we have no idea what the US sales are for the latest edition in the US, and since the console version has been even less popular than the handheld its going to be very difficult to guesstimate

We also do not know what kind of ad campaign, incentives, or anything else is coming. If Capcom has a CC Pro Bundle (despite Nintendo claiming its not coming here) and free online, it could change how it sells a great deal.

I think the console versions have a much better chance taking off then the portable series does in the US. This is mostly due to the online and how there has never been a big local ad-hoc community in the US and people seem to generally prefer to play online. This is a big difference between Japan and the US, and why I think the the console versions have the ability to be more popular that the portable ones in the US.

 

[Die Squirrel Die]

Well, what's the ratio of MHP games in Japan and US? Maybe we can extrapolate from there the possible MH3 US sells.

It's not really comparable, because of the cultural differences in gaming habits (or so it seems from what I gather).

In Japan adhoc multiplayer >>> online (particularly with fees)

In the US/Euro online (particularly without fees) >>> adhoc

The thing that makes the PSP games so popular in Japan barely merits a mention in the western markets.

 

[charlequin]

I can't believe they track sales so many years, have obviously preorders numbers and they manage to have worse predictions even than doicare.

:lol

 

[Chris1964]

Speaking about sellthrough, are there any games that have had a reported 100% sellthrough, or at least close to it?

I have the data in front of me, so here are the games with a >90% sellthrouth (m-create):

System / Title / Publisher / Release date / Weekly sales / Days on sale / Shipment sellthrough
DS / Pokemon Diamond / Pokemon / 28/09/06 / 820.047 / 4 / 97,12
DS / Pokemon Pearl / Pokemon / 28/09/06 / 768.687 / 4 / 96,16
GBA / Pokemon Fire Red / Pokemon / 29/01/04 / 517.874 / 4 / 96,01
PSP / Monster Hunter Freedom Unite / Capcom / 27/03/08 / 880.468 / 4 / 95,83
PS3 / Demon's Souls / SCE / 05/02/09 / 39.689 / 4 / 95,21
Wii / Super Smash Bros. Brawl / Nintendo / 31/01/08 / 819.647 / 4 / 94,37
PSP / Hatsune Miku: Project Diva Sega / 02/07/09 / 101.414 / 4 / 93,69
DS / Infinite Space / Sega / 11/06/09 / 38.394 / 4 / 92,14
GBA / Pokemon Emerald / Pokemon / 16/09/04 / 790.527 / 4 / 91,37
DS / Final Fantasy III / Square Enix / 24/08/06 / 503.051 / 4 / 91,00
DS / Pokemon Platinum / Pokemon / 13/09/08 / 963.273 / 2 / 90,72
PSP / Monster Hunter Freedom 2 / Capcom / 22/02/07 / 705.281 / 4 / 90,29

Note: M-create started giving first week sellthrough shipments only at m-create 2008 top 500, so the numbers I have are from the games that charted there as well as from the 2009 games that we have shipments report.

Pokemon is the clear undershipping winner and and if the famitsu estimate of Pokemon HG / SS 1,35M-1,90M first week prediction is based on any retailer preorders the pattern will continue.

But they are relativelly correct about some of their predictions, at least in my opinion

Most of their predictions are way off even if we take the closer prediction to reality. Here are the real numbers (m-create again):

Title / LTD sales / Famitsu prediction
Final Fantasy IV / 648.907 / 1.000.000
Final Fantasy Tactics A2: Fuketsu no Grimoire / 296.322 / 500.000
Mario Party DS / 1.855.469 / 1.200.000
Minna no Golf Portable 2 / 224.307 / 500.000
Shin Sangoku Musou 5 / 419.686 / 300.000
World Soccer Winning Eleven 2008 / 680.152 / 900.000
SD Gundam Generation Spirits / 381.776 / 400.000
Super Robot Wars OG Gaiden / 271.158 / 300.000
Super Mario Galaxy / 966.817 / 1.000.000
Biohazard Umbrella Chronicles / 248.221 / 500.000
Wii Fit / 3.490.000 (and counting) / 2.500.000
Lost Odyssey / 73.606 / 200.000
Ace Combat 6 / 92.958 / 100.000
NiGHTS: 26.075 / 200.000
Dragon Quest IV: 1.288.085 / 1.500.000
Tales of Innocent: 236.129 / 200.000
GT5P: 233.230 / 800.000

Even if I accept that they couldn't predict Wii Fit because it opened a new market what's the excuse for Wii Fit Plus? 1,80M? Really?

...doicare...

I don't have any problem with doicare's predictions. After all this is a sales thread. The problem I have is that he wanted (and still wants it seems) to convince everyone that his predictions are based on some inside ''source'' he has and can't reveal. So since he wants to regard himself a professional sales analyst I compared him to the professional famitsu analysts.
Seriously now, it's not anything special for someone to predict first week sales. If you watch amazon.jp, some online japanese retailers, first shipments information and have some knowledge about japanese game sales you can have a rough estimate of what a game will sell its first week. The real challenge is to predict the LTD sales. I think so far doicare has spoken about two games LTD. Wii Sports Resort and Tales of Vesperia. With the first one he failed. Let's see how he will do with the second one (he predicted 330K LTD).

And to quote myself in case someone didn't see it.

I'm currently updating my media create database and the data I have are pretty much complete until 2007. For 2006 I have top 30 and the handheld titles of the top 50, taken from n-games (by the way where's Verplant?). For 2004 and 2005 it's basically top 10. Media Create started tracking games after 2002. In fact Jonnyram had posted a graph that showed the sales of the 10th title, starting April 2002 I think. I intend to make my Media Create database available to everyone by Christmas, since there isn't anyone public, so if any sales-age that has more data and wants to share or knows where I can find them please inform me.

I have feedback from some gaffers, if anyone else wants to help he is welcome.

 

[onken]

Wow I can't believe how poor NiGHTS sold, that was such a kick-ass port, I loved it.