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[markatisu]

It's been dropping steadily week after week..why would you expect it so suddenly maintain a steady level? This isn't the portable version, and the first 6-7 weeks has shown that.

Because its still a new version of the game, I dont see its floor dropping out to 2-4k

Why would you think it cannot maintain a steady floor of 7-10k, thats not earth shattering sales by any means

 

[schuelma]

Because its still a new version of the game, I dont see its floor dropping out to 2-4k

Why would you think it cannot maintain a steady floor of 7-10k, thats not earth shattering sales by any means

The last 3 weeks it has gone from 30K-15K-10K. It now settling in at 7-10K seems very very unlikely.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

The last 3 weeks it has gone from 30K-15K-10K. It now settling in at 7-10K seems very very unlikely.

Games that stick around at some level usually don't start at that level, though, so of course they've got to drop to them from above at some point. MHP2G certainly didn't start out doing 10-30K/week. Actually, looks like that didn't become a regular thing until the Best version released, anyway. The original release was doing 20K at 3 months, 10K at 4 months, 5K at 6 months, then the Best hit at 7 months.

 

[test_account]

Uh, it would.

Do you mean "it would" to that it would take years for the PS3 to outsell the Wii or to that 20k a week would be a great improvment for the PS3?

then lets not dont diss other people using exactly same measure?

Yep, i agree I dont mind if people disagree with what is being say, everyone should be allowed to disagree of course, and most people who commented on the 57k comment just seemed to disagree and not dissed what was said though, but i also commented on the 57k comment because i first understood that there were some dissing towards what he said, so i wanted to defend a bit what was said But maybe i am reading a bit too much into the dissing part though.

Looking back at his post, I think the 57K / week thing was used to make the > 30K / week thing seem less ridiculous in comparison. I really don't think > 30K per week is going to happen at 30K Yen with the game slate PS3 has in Japan.

Ye, that might be, but i still dont think that he belive that 57k each week in average for about 1 year is very likely to happend though. If 57k happends, then it would be almost like a miracle that happend hehe

More than 30k per week seems unlikely indeed if there arent many big titled games coming out for the PS3, i agree to that. I wouldnt be that surprised if we saw something like 25-30k though, but it depends much on which games that comes out.

Sure. But the magnitude of that drop isn't preordained. Everything that you (and others) are saying about 57k every week being totally impossible is very true. However, I think test_account is not concentrating on the number, but on the kind of scenario it describes: a truly massive (percentage) bump in hardware sustained over a very long run.

Look at the PSP Slim. As with PS3 slim it had a hardware redesign, a key piece or two of big-name software near launch, and a big rebranding/marketing push. It had been doing in the 25-30k range for months, then had a big spike. Sales subsided, of course, but it didn't drop under 50k again for over a year.

These absolute numbers are not going to happen; PS3 is starting from a lower baseline, PSP's spike was much bigger, size matters more with portables, etc. etc. But about double the sales (say 25k a week) for a year, while still implausible, does seem to fall within the realm of possibility.

That would be an extremely notable event (just as the PSP's year-long surge was). I think that's what test_account is reacting to, whereas everyone else is focused on the impossibility of the specific original suggestion. It seems to me like reading past each other.

Ye, you are correct I shall be a bit fair and say that at first i did mentioned more specificly if 57k was impossible to happend though, so i do understand that people responded more directly to the specific 57k number. I also wrote that i thought that it was very unlikely that the PS3 would sell 57k though, but i still asked if it was 100% impossible.

But after thinking more about it, i thought (and i still think this) that 57k was even more unlikely to happend than what i first thought about, and i then wrote this in my later posts, since 57k is pretty much impossible to happend as everyone says, i totally agree to this, so i wont question anymore if 57k is 100% impossible to happend

But you are right, i am more thinking of a bigger spike in the PS3 weekly sales in average. Personally i wont be that surprised if the PS3 does 25k-30k each week in average for about 1 year. But it depends on which games that are coming out though. I dont know of any big titled games for the PS3 that are coming of in 2010 for example, so unless some big titles games are coming out, then 25-30k in average might not happend. But if several of big titled games come out, then i might even question 45k each week in average. Maybe not for about 1 year though as i first wrote (since in afterthought, 1 year is like 52 weeks of reported numbers, and that is quite a bit of weeks in a row indeed), but maybe for a longer period of time at least? But i still think that 45k is not very likely to happend though just to underline that, but i would just question it if several of big titled PS3 games comes out


I am also wondering how people in general in Japan thinks about this console generation. Have most of them setteled for the Wii or are they still interested in the PS3 and/or the Xbox 360 as well? Seeing that motion controls are popular, i am also curious on how Sony's motion wand and on how Microsoft's Project Natal will be received in Japan and if these 2 things will affect the hardware sales much. I wonder if these 2 things will be pretty popular and make more people buying a PS3 and/or a Xbox 360 or if these 2 motion controllers will mostly behave (is that the right word?) like a separate addon that wont really be THAT popular. But if these things will become popular, could the average weekly hardware sales for the PS3 and Xbox 360 increase? I have no idea to be honest, but i think that it shall be interesting to see what happends

EDIT: I added some text.

 

[gtj1092]

Famitsu Software Pie for Aug 31-Sep 6:

DS - 42.0%
PS3 - 27.1%
WII - 13.1%
PSP - 10.3%
PS2 - 5.5%
360 - 1.7%
Other - 0.2%

Edit:
If you were to combine that with MC's total software for the week to get a rough approximation, you'd get PS3 with 253K in software with 189K of that shown above.

So the software sells weren't as bad as everyone hoped? Although Gundam makes up a lot of that 27% is a solid number. Also doesn't the Ps3 already average about 19K a week over its lifetime?

 

[test_account]

Also doesn't the Ps3 already average about 19K a week over its lifetime?

It is a bit higher. Garaph.info's latest PS3 hardware numbers (Famitsu numbers) are at 3,281,132 and there are 147 weeks since the PS3 was released. That is about 22,320 each week in average. This number doesnt include the 2 last weeks that accounts for the increased PS3 sales though, so if you add these numbers, then the weekly average PS3 lifetime sales should be somewhere around 23k or so.

Seeing this number, i wonder if my guess at around 25k-30k weekly sales in average for about 1 year can really happend. If the PS3 managed to do about 22k in average without the PS3 Slim and a 29,980 Yen pricetag (this is an average over a ~2.5 year period though, maybe that changes things a bit compared to just a 1 year period?), is then 25k-30k each week in average for about 1 year realistic now that the PS3 Slim is out and now that the PS3 costs 29,980 Yen?

With average sales i mean to add all weeks in 1 year together and devide this with 52 ( or depending on how many sales weeks we get for that year, do we always get 52 weeks of sales numbers each year by the way?) just so that is said This mean that the PS3 can get below 10k for some weeks or so, but the holiday season hardware bumps and potential big titled games hardware bump might increase the average weekly sales.

But we will see what happends, i think that the PS3 hardware sales can go both ways, i dont really have any strong gut feeling about 25-30k per week in average to be honest, it is just a guess that i have

EDIT: I added some text.

EDIT 2: I fixed a typo.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

With average sales i mean to add all weeks in 1 year together and devide this with 52 ( ordepending on how many sales weeks we get for that year, do we always get 52 weeks of sales numbers each year by the way?) just so that is said This mean that the PS3 can get below 10k for some weeks or so, but the holiday season hardware bumps and potential big titled games hardware bump might increase the average weekly sales.

Yeah, any discussion of an average must really make sure it specifies whether one means:
*The actual average sales over the long term (mean)
*What something sells in most standard non-bump non-holiday weeks (more like mode)

For instance, up to last week's MC number PS3's average weekly sales this year are 22K. However, that's heavily due to the three biggest holiday/bump weeks, without which the average is 16K.

 

[Road]

Games that stick around at some level usually don't start at that level, though, so of course they've got to drop to them from above at some point. MHP2G certainly didn't start out doing 10-30K/week. Actually, looks like that didn't become a regular thing until the Best version released, anyway. The original release was doing 20K at 3 months, 10K at 4 months, 5K at 6 months, then the Best hit at 7 months.

Regardless, MH3 is not showing any signs of legs. As Schuelma pointed out, its drop rate is much faster than MHP2G's, even when you don't take into account the Best version.

 MHP2G	  MH3

29,048	30,945
24,851	14,972
18,883	10,000
17,510
15,374
12,681
12,733
10,913
10,753

Now, it can always magically start to plateau at like 5k. It just doesn't seem like this original release will. Who knows what the Best can do.

 

[test_account]

Yeah, any discussion of an average must really make sure it specifies whether one means:
*The actual average sales over the long term (mean)
*What something sells in most standard non-bump non-holiday weeks (more like mode)

Ye, i guess that i should have described earlier in my posts what i ment with "average for about 1 year", i am sorry about that I was then thinking about adding all weeks for 1 year together and then devide this hardware number with 52.

But if we talk about what something sells in most standard non-bump non-holiday weeks as you say, then i agree that 30k per week might sounds a bit high, and certainly 57k per week would be pretty much impossible in this case. So i withdraw my questions regarding of 57k per week was possible after that i have thought more about how unlikely 57k is

What does "mean" and "more like mode" means by the way?

For instance, up to last week's MC number PS3's average weekly sales this year are 22K. However, that's heavily due to the three biggest holiday/bump weeks, without which the average is 16K.

Ah, that shows that the 3 biggest bump weeks had a noticeably impact on the weekly average lifetime sales indeed. Thanks for the info!

 

[jcm]

What does "mean" and "more like mode" means by the way?

Mean = the average value. Sum all the elements, and divide by the number of elements.
Median - the middle value. order all the elements, then choose the middle one.
Mode - the most common value. Order all elements, then choose the only that appears most frequently.

In the set

8, 10, 10, 10, 11, 11, 12, 13, 14

mean is 11, median is 11, and mode is 10.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

Do you mean "it would" to that it would take years for the PS3 to outsell the Wii or to that 20k a week would be a great improvment for the PS3?

The latter.

 

[test_account]

Mean = the average value. Sum all the elements, and divide by the number of elements.
Median - the middle value. order all the elements, then choose the middle one.
Mode - the most common value. Order all elements, then choose the only that appears most frequently.

In the set

8, 10, 10, 10, 11, 11, 12, 13, 14

mean is 11, median is 11, and mode is 10.

Ah ok, thanks for the explanation!

The latter.

Ok, i was just wondering, thanks for the answer Ye, going from 8k to 20k would be a good increase indeed, i agree.

 

[Road]

So the software sells weren't as bad as everyone hoped? Although Gundam makes up a lot of that 27% is a solid number.

If we go by the same measure (i.e. mixing Famitsu and MC total), PS3 total software sales (week starting):

08/17: 29k
08/24: 31k
08/31: 253k

Sales outside the Famitsu top 30:

08/17: 29k
08/24: 28k
08/31: 67k

Of note (apart from using two different trackers): the weeks before the slim launch had the worst PS3 hardware sales yet and unremarkable releases.

Also, per Garaph, PS3 only had higher pieces of the software pie on the launches of MGS4 (45.8%), RGG3 (32%) and RE5 (27.3%).

 

[Jokeropia]

In this case regarding hardware sales, what decides what is probable or not?

Common sense. If you disagree with my common sense (which I don't think you do), we'll just see if it's accurate or not in the next few weeks.

But i just wanted to ask what was wrong to say a "what if" comment

Again, because it doesn't add anything to the point he was making. (Which was that the drop wasn't so bad.) Adding another comment (which stands on it's own) in addition to it doesn't change that.

You could simply mention only 30k to begin with and leave it at that.

Edit: Also, that comment was not the same as Joshua's weekly "at this rate, it'll take x years for platform y to catch up to platform z" stats as those are not intended to make any particular point.

By the way, what example did you mention in your previous post, the 250k each week for 3 years example? Meier's example was about movies, does movies sales work in the same way as console sales though?

Both. Whether movie sales work in the same way as console sales is irrelevant since we're only talking about probabilities here and they're all on the same insignificant level of probability. (0.001% or 0.01%, it doesn't matter.)

Ye, that is true, it is difference between 1 year into the console life cycle and 5-6 years into the the console life cycle as you say, i agree, but can we rule it 100% out?

Logically, you can never rule anything 100% out. (Aliens could land on earth tomorrow and buy millions of PS3s for whatever reason.) Since no one has time contemplate all the possibilities however it makes sense to focus on those that have an at least reasonable probability of occuring.

 

[test_account]

Common sense.

Sure, in many cases it is about common sense as you say, i agree, but does common sense apply in all cases though? For example, wouldnt more people have predicted 100k+ for the PS3 Slim launch and PS3 pricedrop?

If you disagree with my common sense (which I don't think you do), we'll just see if it's accurate or not in the next few weeks.

Do you mean regarding that the PS3 will sell 57k each week in average for about 1 year? If yes, then i agree with you completely indeed In afterthought i have seen that it would be almost a miracle if the PS3 manage to sell this much in 1 year, so i dont think that this is possible indeed, and i would pretty much rule it out completely indeed

Again, because it doesn't add anything to the point he was making. (Which was that the drop wasn't so bad.) Adding another comment (which stands on it's own) in addition to it doesn't change that.

You could simply mention only 30k to begin with and leave it at that.

Did he mean to say that the drop wasnt so bad though? He said that 57k is still a substantial number compared to everything bar the DSi. Would this point be the same if the PS3 came from 150k or 70k the week before? 57k is still 57k in this case

What he said could maybe be understood that he indirectly said that the PS3 drop in the 2nd week after the PS3 Slim launch and when the PS3 got a pricedrop wasnt that bad, but he didnt say it directly at least. But Clear can elaborate on if he ment to say that the PS3 drop wasnt that bad or not if he wants to, then we will know for sure what he ment

Is it important that whats being said must add something to the main point that is being made? For example, if i say "If Tomodachi collection keeps selling at this week's rate for 2 years, then it will get a LTD of 4 million copies sold (hypotecial numbers, i am not sure how much Tomodachi Collection actually would sell if it sold at this week's rate for 2 years). But realistically, i think that 2 - 2.5 million copies would be more likely and this would be a fantastic result for Nintendo". Does this mean that it is pointless of me to mention the first sentence with 4 million copies sold? Or could this sentence be more of a "what if" or as a "fun fact" that kinda adds something to my main point in what i said?

By the way, this Tomodachi Collection example is just a hypotetical example, i have no idea or any prediction on how much Tomodachi Collection will end up selling when it is all said and done.

Edit: Also, that comment was not the same as Joshua's weekly "at this rate, it'll take x years for platform y to catch up to platform z" stats as those are not intended to make any particular point.

I think that i know what you mean, but i thought that the point with those "catch up to platform" comments were to give some kind of perspective on how far platform y is behind platform z on the weekly hardware sales? For example, if the PS3 sells 10k and the Wii stops selling, it will take 7 years (hypotetical number, i dont know how many years there actually is) for the PS3 to catch up to the Wii. This shows that if the PS3 contunie to sell like 10k consoles each week, then the PS3 would basicly never catch up to the Wii, even if the Wii stops selling. Isnt this a particular point on its own?

And regarding those comments, isnt this something similar to say that if the PS3 sells 57k each week in average for about 1 year then this would add up to be close to 3 million consoles? Both things are pretty much impossible to happend, the Wii wont stop selling next week or so and the PS3 will not sell 57k each week in average for about 1 year in a row. Earlier you said (in post #523) that "what if" comments are pointless if they have no reasonably probable basis. Is it reasonable probable that the Wii willl stop to sell next week?

If i am not mistaken, JoshuaJSlone's next "catch up to platform" comments will include the numbers when the PS3 sold about 150k in 1 week. This will then show that if the PS3 contunie to sells at this rate and if the Wii stops selling, then the PS3 will probably catch up to the Wii in about 1 year or so. This isnt likely to happend.

"What if" comments does not necessarily have to have beliveable point to them, at least in my opinion. It is not like JoshuaJSlone belives that the Wii will stop selling next week or so, and i dont think that Clear ment to say that he really belived that the PS3 would sell 57k each week in average for about 1 year either. If Clear had only mentioned the 57k comment and said that there was a fair chance that this actually would happend, then it would be something different in my opinion, but since he mentioned that ~30k would be more realistically and a fantastic result for Sony, i personally dont think that he put too much into the 57k comment and belived that this would actually happend. That is why i wanted to ask what is wrong to say a "what if" comment that doesnt necessarily have to have a possible chance to happend. But this is just my understanding of what he wrote, i might have missunderstood something.

You might say that it pointless to say something that has a very little chance to happend, and i think i know what you mean with this, but a "what if" comment could at least be understood as a fun fact, and then there is some point to the comment, at least in my opinion Eventhough that JoshuaJSlone's "catch up to platform" comments arent likely to happend, i still enjoy reading those "catch up to platform" comments that JoshuaJSlone posts just to underline that, so i hope that you will contunie to post these comments, JoshuaJSlone


EDIT 3: Please correct me if i am wrong, but after thinking some more about this, i think that the reason why we have a different view on this 57k comment is because that you belive that Clear was trying to make a point with this comment and that he wanted to show that it was actually realistically that the PS3 could sell 57k each week in average for about 1 year, while i belive that Clear didnt really ment too much about this 57k comment and that i think that he didnt mean that 57k was realistically because he mentioned that ~30k would be a fantastic result for Sony on the next line, and that it was more as a "what if" comment and fun fact instead. Clear hasnt elaborated (at least not what i can see) how much he put into this 57k comment or why he mentioned this comment, so i guess that it is everyone's guess what he ment

Both. Whether movie sales work in the same way as console sales is irrelevant since we're only talking about probabilities here and they're all on the same insignificant level of probability. (0.001% or 0.01%, it doesn't matter.)

Ye, i see what you mean. The reason why i asked about if movies and consoles sales work in the same way is because a console is more likely to rise in sales than a movie, at least in my opinion. I understood Meier's example that both of these things were put on the same line as being possible/impossible if you know what i mean? That is why i asked if movies and consoles sales work in the same way. But it might be that i missunderstood something (i am sorry if i missunderstood his point). Maybe he mentioned the movie example just to show that both things are very unlikely to happend indeed as you say, i agree

Logically, you can never rule anything 100% out. (Aliens could land on earth tomorrow and buy millions of PS3s for whatever reason.) Since no one has time contemplate all the possibilities however it makes sense to focus on those that have an at least reasonable probability of occuring.

Ye, that is true, nothing is 100% sure of what will happend in the future as you say. But regarding reasonable probabilty, but can we always know whats a reasonable probability? Take for example the PS3 version of Tales of Vesperia that were released today (Thursday). On one hand, it is a "Tales of" game, and "Tales of" games are usually rather popular, at least after my experience, but on the other hand it is a port of a Xbox 360 game (some new things are added to the PS3 version i think, but it is basicly the same game in general) which many people have already played. I am sure that we can rule out stuff like 500k and 5k sales for the first week just to mention some examples, but what is a reasonable probability that the PS3 version of Tales of Vesperia will sell?

EDIT 2: Now the first day numbers for the PS3 version Tales of Vesperia is out, so my question regarding this might not be that "valid" now (i am not sure if valid is the right word, but do you know what i mean?). But if i remember correctly, the lowest predictions that Tales of Vesperia PS3 would sell like the PS3 version of Eternal Sonata/Trusty Bell did and the highest i saw was 260k for the first week. Looking at these predictions, there seems to be different opinion on what reasonable probability is, at least in my opinion

EDIT: I added some text. And i am sorry for the quite long post, but i just had much that i wanted to say

 

[Dragon]

I think it's amusing that everyone should act like it's a foregone conclusion that the PS3 is going to go down to sub-20 k levels. It's certainly possible, but these are the same people who predicted a 75k bump. It's a crapshoot.

 

[test_account]

I think it's amusing that everyone should act like it's a foregone conclusion that the PS3 is going to go down to sub-20 k levels. It's certainly possible, but these are the same people who predicted a 75k bump. It's a crapshoot.

Ye, at this point it seems more like a guess that the PS3 will go down to sub-20k (which is possible as you say, i agree), at least in my opinion. I think that it is a bit too early to see with a more accuracy what the new weekly PS3 baseline regarding hardware sales will be, but it is always possible to guess and predict of course But i think that it shall be interesting to see how the PS3 hardware sales will be in the upcoming weeks and months

 

[AdventureRacing]

I think it's amusing that everyone should act like it's a foregone conclusion that the PS3 is going to go down to sub-20 k levels. It's certainly possible, but these are the same people who predicted a 75k bump. It's a crapshoot.

It's already down to just over 50K and i think somewhere around 30-35K is likely for next week.

If the PS3 stays above 20K average it wont be by much.

 

[Liabe Brave]

Historically, hardware spikes can hit minor plateaus on the way down, where two weeks in a row are very similar. Not saying that PS3 will definitely do 50k next week (I believe otherwise), but it's not unprecedented.

Also, why are we posting in this thread still? There's a nice one over here that donny2112 made for us out of the goodness of his heart.

 

[test_account]

Historically, hardware spikes can hit minor plateaus on the way down, where two weeks in a row are very similar. Not saying that PS3 will definitely do 50k next week (I believe otherwise), but it's not unprecedented.

Ye, seeing the rather high Tales of Vesperia sales, i wonder what the PS3 hardware sales will be next week. I dont belive that it will be around 54k like it was this week though, but i wonder if Tales of Vesperia could result in a lower PS3 hardware drop next week that some people have predicted. Very hard to say though, i dont really have any idea what to predict on what the PS3 hardware sales will be next week.

Also, why are we posting in this thread still? There's a nice one over here that donny2112 made for us out of the goodness of his heart.

I thought that was easier to contunie the disucssion in this thread instead of moving it over to the newest Media Create thread. But if Jokeropia wants to reply to my previous post and if he doesnt want to bump this Media Create thread, then he can reply in the newest Media Create thread that you linked to, since i will be reading that thread as well, so i will see his reply in that thread if he wants to reply It doesnt matter to me if he wants to reply in this thread instead though, since i will be checking this thread later on tonight as well to see if there are any reply or replies.

 

[Jokeropia]

Sure, in many cases it is about common sense as you say, i agree, but does common sense apply in all cases though?

Common sense is generally referred in clear-cut cases like the one in question. As the probability of different outcomes become more significant, more thorough reasoning is required.

Do you mean regarding that the PS3 will sell 57k each week in average for about 1 year? If yes, then i agree with you completely indeed

Right.

Did he mean to say that the drop wasnt so bad though?

The phrasing implies as such. (In particularly the "look at this way" part.) Or to be precise, that the drop wasn't so bad with respect to future sales.

He said that 57k is still a substantial number compared to everything bar the DSi. Would this point be the same if the PS3 came from 150k or 70k the week before? 57k is still 57k in this case

With respect to future sales, coming down from 70k to 57k is not quite as bad as it suggests a more prolonged bump. On the other hand, 70k would've been a worse start so the overall end result of both scenarios might be comparable.

Is it important that whats being said must add something to the main point that is being made?

If you make sure to phrase it in such a manner that it is unambiguously unrelated to the main point, I suppose you're fine.

I think that i know what you mean, but i thought that the point with those "catch up to platform" comments were to give some kind of perspective on how far platform y is behind platform z on the weekly hardware sales?

Right, but that only really works when one of the platforms isn't significantly inflated or deflated for some particular reason. (Such as the weeks directly before and during the PS3 Slim release.) In these cases it's more of a "fun fact" kind of thing.

Accordingly, if PS3 had sold 57k in a normal week when there aren't any obvious factors affecting the sales, an "if it maintains this rate for a year" comment makes more sense.

Ye, that is true, nothing is 100% sure of what will happend in the future as you say. But regarding reasonable probabilty, but can we always know whats a reasonable probability?

See topmost point in this post.

 

[test_account]

Common sense is generally referred in clear-cut cases like the one in question. As the probability of different outcomes become more significant, more thorough reasoning is required.

That is true. I think that i wrote that quote a bit poorly, i am sorry, but i ment since it happend that the PS3 sold 150k in one week, doesnt this mean that there was a possibility/reality that the PS3 acctually could have sold 150k before we got the hardware numbers, if you know what i mean? The chance was probably really small, but the chance was still there? Or to write it a bit differently: generally speaking (this isnt really related directly to the 57k comment), shall all comments and predictions regarding future sales only be based on common sense? Looking at the previous PS3 sales, it wasnt really a common sense (at least in my opinion) that the PS3 Slim and the PS3 pricedrop would result in that the PS3. Would that mean that it would be pointless to say in advance that the PS3 could sell 150k in one week because it wasnt really reasonable probable that the PS3 would sell 150k?

Right.

Ok

The phrasing implies as such. (In particularly the "look at this way" part.) Or to be precise, that the drop wasn't so bad with respect to future sales.

Ye, i guess that the phrase could be understood like that, i agree. But i also think that this phrase could be understood something like "57k (the number standing alone) isnt really that bad compared to how the other systems (besides the DS) sold". Some people said something like "57k is lower than i though", and i wonder if Clear just mentioned that 57k (the number standing alone) isnt really that bad compared to how the other systems sold in the same week.

I also wonder if the "look at this way" phrase might have been to show that 57k as a standalone number isnt that bad, and that is why he mentioned the example if PS3 sold 57k each week in average for 1 year, then that would be about 3 million consoles in 1 year. Just to show that 57k can be a good number on it's own regardless if the PS3 came down from 150k or 70k from the previous week, if you know what i mean?

I wish that Clear could elaborate on what he ment though, since now i am only guessing what he might have ment, so it might be that i am missunderstanding what he really ment.

With respect to future sales, coming down from 70k to 57k is not quite as bad as it suggests a more prolonged bump. On the other hand, 70k would've been a worse start so the overall end result of both scenarios might be comparable.

Ye, that is true, i agree, but i wonder if Clear mostly ment to compare 57k to how the other systems sold in the same week.

If you make sure to phrase it in such a manner that it is unambiguously unrelated to the main point, I suppose you're fine.

Ye, but wasnt Clear's phrase written in such a manner though? The Tomodachi Collection example i mentioned is pretty much the same kind of phrase/writing that Clear wrote, at least in my opinion.

Right, but that only really works when one of the platforms isn't significantly inflated or deflated for some particular reason. (Such as the weeks directly before and during the PS3 Slim release.) In these cases it's more of a "fun fact" kind of thing.

Accordingly, if PS3 had sold 57k in a normal week when there aren't any obvious factors affecting the sales, an "if it maintains this rate for a year" comment makes more sense.

Ye, that is true, having hardware sales numbers from a more normal week (as in no big titled game and/or price drop bumps etc.) will give a better picture on how the consoles are selling compared to eachother as you say, i agree, but what if Clear's 57k also was just a "fun fact" comment?

See topmost point in this post.

Ye, but i mostly wanted to ask because sometimes people predict things quite diffrently. Regarding predicting how much something will sell in the future, what is reasonable for some, is that always reasonable on the same level for others? If everyone have had the same opinion about what reasonable probabilty is, wouldnt we have seen that more people would have predicted more similar sales numbers?

There might be several of factors that can affect the sales of something, and maybe some one is taking on or several factors more into account compared to what others do, so who decides what is mostly reasonable probable when people have a different opinion about things?

EDIT: I forgot to mention, i am sorry for some of the late edits in my previous post by the way. I did my last edit before you replied though, so maybe you read my post after i had done my last edit, but i just wanted to mention this anyway in case you missed something that i have edited. Looking at your reply i guess that you didnt miss anything what i wrote though, but i just wanted to mention this anyway

 

[Jokeropia]

That is true. I think that i wrote that quote a bit poorly, i am sorry, but i ment since it happend that the PS3 sold 150k in one week, doesnt this mean that there was a possibility/reality that the PS3 acctually could have sold 150k before we got the hardware numbers, if you know what i mean? The chance was probably really small, but the chance was still there? Or to write it a bit differently: generally speaking (this isnt really related directly to the 57k comment), shall all comments and predictions regarding future sales only be based on common sense? Looking at the previous PS3 sales, it wasnt really a common sense (at least in my opinion) that the PS3 Slim and the PS3 pricedrop would result in that the PS3. Would that mean that it would be pointless to say in advance that the PS3 could sell 150k in one week because it wasnt really reasonable probable that the PS3 would sell 150k?

The sentence you quoted actually works as a response to this, but I'll try to explain it as directly a I can: selling 150k in a particular week where sales are inflated by special circumstances is not as unlikely as selling 57k per week an entire year. To paraphrase myself, the probability of a different outcome was much more significant, so more thorough reasoning is required.

It's kinda odd to do this in retrospect, but I'd say the PS3 had about a 20-25% chance to sell 150k during that week? Much more significant and not by any means as clear-cut as the 0.01% of the other scenario.

Ye, i guess that the phrase could be understood like that, i agree. But i also think that this phrase could be understood something like "57k (the number standing alone) isnt really that bad compared to how the other systems (besides the DS) sold". Some people said something like "57k is lower than i though", and i wonder if Clear just mentioned that 57k (the number standing alone) isnt really that bad compared to how the other systems sold in the same week.

I also wonder if the "look at this way" phrase might have been to show that 57k as a standalone number isnt that bad, and that is why he mentioned the example if PS3 sold 57k each week in average for 1 year, then that would be about 3 million consoles in 1 year. Just to show that 57k can be a good number on it's own regardless if the PS3 came down from 150k or 70k from the previous week, if you know what i mean?

I'll explain the bolded part in the next point.

Anyway, we're just speculating here but you can never look at sales in a vacuum like this. 57k in almost any other week would've been outstanding, but this was inescapably not any other week.

Ye, but wasnt Clear's phrase written in such a manner though?

"unambiguous |ˌənamˈbigyəwəs|
adjective
not open to more than one interpretation : instructions should be unambiguous."

In the sentence I bolded above, you agreed that the phrase could be interpreted in different ways.

Ye, but i mostly wanted to ask because sometimes people predict things quite diffrently. Regarding predicting how much something will sell in the future, what is reasonable for some, is that always reasonable on the same level for others? If everyone have had the same opinion about what reasonable probabilty is, wouldnt we have seen that more people would have predicted more similar sales numbers?

There might be several of factors that can affect the sales of something, and maybe some one is taking on or several factors more into account compared to what others do, so who decides what is mostly reasonable probable when people have a different opinion about things?

Regardless of what's reasonable to others, when I consider something to be clear-cut I'm fairly confident that I'm right. Unless you find someone who considers it reasonable that the PS3 will sell 57k per week from now on, we're not getting any further here.

 

[test_account]

The sentence you quoted actually works as a response to this, but I'll try to explain it as directly a I can: selling 150k in a particular week where sales are inflated by special circumstances is not as unlikely as selling 57k per week an entire year. To paraphrase myself, the probability of a different outcome was much more significant, so more thorough reasoning is required.

It's kinda odd to do this in retrospect, but I'd say the PS3 had about a 20-25% chance to sell 150k during that week? Much more significant and not by any means as clear-cut as the 0.01% of the other scenario.

Sure, i fully agree that 1 week of big sales, especially under special circumstances as you say (in this case with the PS3 where there were a relatively big pricedrop and a redesigned console), is more likely to happend than 1 year/52 weeks of big sales. But do you agree to that it wasnt exacly common sense that the PS3 would sell about 150k in one week when we look on how the PS3 had sold previously?

But i think that i know what you mean though, that even if one thing isnt exactly common sense or that clear-cut, it can still have a chance to happend, and that there are difference between how likely things are to happend, like for example it is/was more like that the PS3 sold 150k in one week compared to selling like 57k each week in average for about 1 year. Have i understood you correctly then? If yes, then i agree to this

I also agree that there was a chance for the PS3 to sell much when it got the recent pricedrop and when the PS3 Slim was released, but i predicted something like 70k-80k myself. But i wasnt exaclty super surprised when i saw the 150k number to be honest because i think that the PS3 is now at a relatively affordable price in Japan, so i can understand that several of people wanted (and still wants) to buy a PS3 at this price point

I'll explain the bolded part in the next point.

Ok

Anyway, we're just speculating here but you can never look at sales in a vacuum like this. 57k in almost any other week would've been outstanding, but this was inescapably not any other week.

Sure, i do agree that the PS3 selling 57k each week in average for about 1 year is pretty much impossible. I just wanted to write what i thought that maybe Clear ment with his 57k comment. But as you say, we are just speculating

"unambiguous |ˌənamˈbigyəwəs|
adjective
not open to more than one interpretation : instructions should be unambiguous."

Do you mean that his post could only be interpretated in one way or do you mean that things should be said and/or written in a way that can only be interpretated in one way?

In the sentence I bolded above, you agreed that the phrase could be interpreted in different ways.

Ye, that is true, but if there is doubt or a possibility that what is been said or written could be interpretated in more than one way, isnt it best to know for sure what the guy (in this case "Clear") ment before commenting on what he said?

I would say that it those who say and/or write something does have a "responsability" (or what i shall say) that things are understood in the way that he/she means it and that there arent any doubt though (i am generally speaking here, this isnt just about this 57k comment). But on the other hand, this isnt always that easy, at least in my opinion. For example, if i write something, i might feel that there is only one way to understand what i wrote and i cant really think of any other way to write it. But even if i feel what i wrote could only be understood in one way, some people might interpretate what i wrote in another way.

Another example might be when something write something sarcastic. For the person who write it, he/she might think that everyone will understand what is being written is sarcasm, but other might understand it as something serious that is being written. I am not saying that what Clear said was sarcasm though, i am just using the sarcasm-example to show that when someone writes something, they might think that it could only be interpretated in one way, but other people might still interpretated whats being written in another way, if you know what i mean?

Regardless of what's reasonable to others, when I consider something to be clear-cut I'm fairly confident that I'm right. Unless you find someone who considers it reasonable that the PS3 will sell 57k per week from now on, we're not getting any further here.

When i asked about if whats reasonable probable could variate from person to person, then i was mostly thinking about things in general and not about the 57k example, because i do agree that the 57k example are almost impossible to happend I could have written this a bit better, i am sorry :\

This question was mostly directed to when you said "Since no one has time contemplate all the possibilities however it makes sense to focus on those that have an at least reasonable probability of occuring." I then wanted to ask if people could have have different opinions about what reasonable probability is. For example, for some it might have been reasonable probability that Tales of Vesperia PS3 could sell about 200k the first week, but for others it might not have been that reasonable probability that Tales of Vesperia PS3 could sell 200k the first week. So i wanted to ask if there could be different opinions about what reasonable probability is

But i think that i have actually gotten the answer to this question regarding what you wrote in the first quote in this post. I see that you mostly mean things that were pretty much impossible to happend, like that the PS3 would sell 57k each week in average for about 1 year and not thing that might maybe have 10%-20% to happend. 10%-20% is still unlikely, but it is at least a bigger chance than for example 0.01% that you mentioned earlier. Did i understand you correctly then?


I hope that i have remembered to write everything that i wanted to write now Sometimes i remember things that i forgot to write and then i have to do late edits, but i wont edit my post after/if you reply at least

EDIT: I see now that my post became a bit longer than i thought. My posts often becomes longer than what i first think they would be, i am sorry :\ It is just that i sometimes have many things that i want to say. I hope that you dont mind my long posts?

 

[Jokeropia]

But i think that i know what you mean though, that even if one thing isnt exactly common sense or that clear-cut, it can still have a chance to happend, and that there are difference between how likely things are to happend, like for example it is/was more like that the PS3 sold 150k in one week compared to selling like 57k each week in average for about 1 year. Have i understood you correctly then? If yes, then i agree to this

Right.

Do you mean that his post could only be interpretated in one way or do you mean that things should be said and/or written in a way that can only be interpretated in one way?

The statement could be interpreted in several ways and was thus not unambiguously unrelated to the main point.

Ye, that is true, but if there is doubt or a possibility that what is been said or written could be interpretated in more than one way, isnt it best to know for sure what the guy (in this case "Clear") ment before commenting on what he said?

Well, I guess this depends on how uncertain you are about the meaning. If you do it too often almost all discussions would be stuttered by constant asking what people mean. I'd say unless you really can't decide on what interpretation you find most likely, you can go by the interpretation you believe and then be corrected if it was wrong.

But i think that i have actually gotten the answer to this question regarding what you wrote in the first quote in this post. I see that you mostly mean things that were pretty much impossible to happend, like that the PS3 would sell 57k each week in average for about 1 year and not thing that might maybe have 10%-20% to happend. 10%-20% is still unlikely, but it is at least a bigger chance than for example 0.01% that you mentioned earlier. Did i understand you correctly then?

Right.

I hope that you dont mind my long posts?

It's fine.

 

[test_account]

Right.

Ok, thanks for the answer!

The statement could be interpreted in several ways and was thus not unambiguously unrelated to the main point.

How do you mean with "was thus not unambiguously unrelated to the main point."? English isnt my first language, sorry :\

Well, I guess this depends on how uncertain you are about the meaning. If you do it too often almost all discussions would be stuttered by constant asking what people mean. I'd say unless you really can't decide on what interpretation you find most likely, you can go by the interpretation you believe and then be corrected if it was wrong.

Sure, i didnt mean to say that people should always ask what people mean just because some things might be interpretated in more than one way. I dont have any problems that people commented on what he said.

I think that it is good that people comment in the way that they interpreted whats being written and/or said, because i think it would kinda suck if a lot of posts on forums were like "did you mean this or that?", so the discussion might have stuttered constantly if this happend a lot as you say, i agree But in most cases (at least after my experience) what people write, their message/point(s) is pretty much straight forward and are understood in the way that the writer intended to write his/her message/point(s), so generally speaking, hopefully it isnt a problem to know what people really ment in the first place without having to ask what they ment

I mostly wanted to ask if there was a possibility that maybe he ("Clear") could have ment something different than people first thought that he ment, and if he did mean something else, then maybe then his comment wasnt that "wrong" afterall, if you know what i mean? But i might have missunderstood what he ment, i am just speculating if he could have ment something else

Ye, i agree that it can be a good way to answer to something in the way that you interpretates whats being said and/or written and then be corrected if it was wrong as you say, i agree

Right.

Ok, cool, then i understood what you ment Thanks for the answer!

It's fine.

That is good to hear, thanks!

EDIT: I added some text.

 

[Jokeropia]

How do you mean with "was thus not unambiguously unrelated to the main point."? English isnt my first language, sorry :\

It means that the statement could be interpreted in such a manner that it was related to the main point.

 

[gkryhewy]

You guys gonna keep this MC thread alive into 2010?

 

[test_account]

It means that the statement could be interpreted in such a manner that it was related to the main point.

Ah ok, i understand, thanks for the answer Ye, that is true, i guess that what he said could be interpreted in that way as you say, i agree.

Thanks for the discussion, Jokeropia!

You guys gonna keep this MC thread alive into 2010?

Hehe I am sorry for bumping the thread, but i think that the discussion between me and Jokeropia is pretty much done/complete now, i have gotten the answers to all of my questions now at least I just thought that it would be easier to keep the discussion in this older Media Create thread instead of moving it over to the newest Media Create thread.

EDIT: I added some text.