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[charlequin]

Less than 30k already hmm, don't know.

Yeah, I wouldn't take that bet. But if by some stroke it really is lower than 30k next week, I think we can put aside the idea that the PS3 baseline moved up much further than 5k or so by this launch.

 

[Busaiku]

In fact, shy of the DS and PSP right now, the above can be said of all the hardware in Japan. A dearth of software in the wake of handheld dominance = diminished sales long term.

Actually, DS is the only exception.
PSP's falling at about the same rate as Wii is.

 

[Jokeropia]

AH I siad nothing likethat, just that was the first suppsoe shipment.

->

Media Create reported 151.783 sales last week with a 60% sellthrough. Total estimated shipment ~250.000.
Dengeki reported 147.928 sales last week with a 55% sellthrough. Total shipment ~270.000.

208k was not the whole shipment.

 

[Loudninja]

->
208k was not the whole shipment.

Oh I guess I forgot the number, thanks!

 

[schuelma]

Yeah, I wouldn't take that bet. But if by some stroke it really is lower than 30k next week, I think we can put aside the idea that the PS3 baseline moved up much further than 5k or so by this launch.

I don't think it will go that low especially with Vesperia hitting which could be PS3's biggest release until GT5/FF13.

 

[Totobeni]

I don't think it will go that low especially with Veperia hitting which could be PS3's biggest release until GT5/FF13.

don't think so , it's still a very late port ( see Trusty Bell ) and after that week they have another port (Ninja Gaiden Sigma 2).

I think there is chance for Bayonetta or Tekken 6 to sell more than Tales of Vesperia on PS3. ( even 3D Dot Game Heroes can do it) , I just can't see lat port doing better than Bayonetta or Tekken 6 even if it was for JRPG title .

 

[schuelma]

don't think so , it's still a very late port ( see Trusty Bell ) and after that week they have another port (Ninja Gaiden Sigma 2).

I think there is chance for Bayonetta or Tekken 6 to sell more than Tales of Vesperia on PS3. ( even 3D Dot Game Heroes can do it) , I just can't see lat port doing better than Bayonetta or Tekken 6 even if it was for JRPG title .

It's going to do very well. I can see a 200K opening week.

 

[Totobeni]

It's going to do very well. I can see a 200K opening week.

maybe for Star Ocean 4 international , but Tales series can't do that , it's not as popular , that huge number is kinda impossible even for the new tales games these days , harder for ports , IIRC Wii Tales of Symphonia: Dawn of the New World and DS Tales of Heart both did less than 150K first week each , so for late port Namco will be super lucky if ToV did anything higher than 60K on PS3 .

 

[schuelma]

maybe for Star Ocean 4 international , but Tales series can't do that , it's not as popular , that huge number is kinda impossible even for the new tales games these days , harder for ports , IIRC Wii Tales of Symphonia: Dawn of the New World and DS Tales of Heart both did less than 150K first week each , so for late port Namco will be super lucky if ToV did anything higher than 60K on PS3 .

We'll see. Certainly not a lock but I think it is going to do very well.

 

[donny2112]

Here is some more software data from Media Create.

Thanks, bttb!

I can see a 200K opening week.

So your theory is that all the Tales PSP owners also own a PS3?

I have a hard time seeing > 200K. I think it could be reasonably close to that (e.g. 150-175K), but the Tales that have opened > 200K are RM2 and PS1/PS2 games. Just as another random point, PS2 ToS opened at ~1.5 GCN ToS's opening week. If PS3 ToV does the same compared to 360 ToV, that's put it at ~150K.

 

[Meier]

I think what Meier is going for is that that's a pointless statement since the PS3 will almost certainly not keep selling 57k per week indefinitely. If you're gonna make statements without any reasonably probable basis, you might as well say "If the PS3 sold 250k per week for the next three years, it would be the most successful system in history!"

It's true, but so what? It's not gonna happen.

Correct. I was reading the replies after to see if anyone nailed it, and Jokeropia did very succinctly. Let me give an equivalent and you tell me if it isn't absurd.

Transformers 2 made ~$109m its first weekend. It fell to $42m its second. His example would be akin to saying, "Hey if Transformers 2 does $42m each weekend for the rest of the year, it will make over $2.2 billion dollars!" Even if you took his next scenario and suggested if it made its 3rd week gross for the remainder of the year, it still remains a ridiculous scenario. It's a non-sensical argument that isn't grounded in fact or reason.

 

[test_account]

I think what Meier is going for is that that's a pointless statement since the PS3 will almost certainly not keep selling 57k per week indefinitely. If you're gonna make statements without any reasonably probable basis, you might as well say "If the PS3 sold 250k per week for the next three years, it would be the most successful system in history!"

It's true, but so what? It's not gonna happen.

Ye, that might be what he ment indeed. But i didnt see what was so wrong to say the 57k PS3 consoles sold each week in average for 1 year. What Clear wrote on the next line showed (at least this is how i understood it) that he didnt belive that it was likely for the PS3 to sell this amount, so i understood his 57k a week comment to be more as a "what if" comment if you know what i mean? I dont see what is so stupid about saying this, but that is just my opinion It wasnt like he said that it was possible that it would happend or so.

I actually found this 57k comment kind of interesting that 57k console each week is about 3 million consoles for 1 year, since the PS3 has sold about 3.5 million consoles in Japan so far. Seeing that the PS3 has been out for about 2.5 years in Japan, i think could quickly guess how much the PS3 had sold each week in average. I could have checked this without the 57k comment though, but i didnt really think too much about this before i saw the 57k comment


Regarding if it possible for the PS3 to sell 57k consoles each week for about 1 year, in many cases it is near impossible to know what the future brings for sure. How probable was it that the PS3 would sell over 150k in 1 week when the PS3 got a pricecut and when the PS3 Slim came out? I think that only 1 guy (Kurosaki Ichigo) here thought that the PS3 would sell about 150k at launch. I am not saying that it is a big chance that the PS3 will sell about 57k consoles each week in average, i think that there is a very small chance for this to happend just to underline that, but is it 100% impossible?

I know that you most likely mentioned the 250k for 3 years example to show that 250k and 57k are both unlikely to happend, but i am not sure that i would say that 57k in average each week for about 1 year is basicly the same as saying 250k each week for 3 years. 250k each week for 3 years is pretty much impossible, i dont think anyone disagree with that, but is it impossible for the PS3 to sell 57k systems each week in average for about 1 year?

EDIT 2: A late edit here, i am sorry, but i just wanted to clearify one thing, when i mean 57k each week in average for about 1 year, i dont necessarily think about from this date and 1 year ahead from now on. I am thinking about in maybe 2-3 years from now as well. I guess that maybe Clear's comment was mostly directed to 1 year from this date though, and i dont know how realisticly it is for the PS3 to sell 57k a week in average in about 1 year from this date, i agree to that, but what about in about 2-3 years or so? It is impossible to know for sure what the PS3's pricetag is in 2-3 years though, but what i PS3's popularity rises? Is it possible? Didnt the DS see a big rise in popularity after that it had been 1 year or so on the market? I am not saying that this will happend to the PS3, or that it is likely to happend, but i just wanted to ask if it is possible


But to be honest, i think it is near impossible for the PS3 to sell 57k each week in average for about 1 year, but i dont think that i would be that surprised if the PS3 manages to do about ~30k each week in average for 1 year (then i dont mean that we will see the PS3 hardware sales around 30k each week, but as an average throughout 1 year (some games might cause hardware bumps)). But we will see what happends

EDIT: I fixed a typo.

 

[markatisu]

It's going to do very well. I can see a 200K opening week.

And how much further do you think its going to go after that?

 

[onken]

it's just that store I guess .
20K for this week in japan If they're lucky ( Pokemon effect )

so for late port Namco will be super lucky if ToV did anything higher than 60K on PS3 .

So going off your slim predictions for last week, ToV should do about 170k

 

[schuelma]

And how much further do you think its going to go after that?

Not much, just like most Tales games.

And 200K might be a tad optimistic..but I definitely think it will handily outsell the 360 version and ToS: KoR

 

[test_account]

Correct. I was reading the replies after to see if anyone nailed it, and Jokeropia did very succinctly. Let me give an equivalent and you tell me if it isn't absurd.

Transformers 2 made ~$109m its first weekend. It fell to $42m its second. His example would be akin to saying, "Hey if Transformers 2 does $42m each weekend for the rest of the year, it will make over $2.2 billion dollars!" Even if you took his next scenario and suggested if it made its 3rd week gross for the remainder of the year, it still remains a ridiculous scenario.

Ok, i see what you mean, thanks for the answer! I mostly wanted to ask what was wrong about saying his 57k comment because of what Clear wrote on the next line. On the next line he said that realisticly anything above 30k would be a fantastic result for Sony. And when said "fantastic", i understood this that he ment that around 30k each week was a best-case senario.

If Clear said the 57k comment only and said that it was a good chance for this to happend, then i would agree that it probably would be a pretty bold prediction, but i dont think that he ment what he said about 57k consoles sold each week in average for 1 year as a serious argument that this would happend, but that it was more like a "what if" comment if you know what i mean? That is why i wanted to ask what was wrong with his 57k comment But this is just how i understood what he ment, so please correct me if i missunderstood something


I see what you mean with the Transformers 2 example, and i agree to this, but does movies and consoles sales work in the same way though? In most cases, consoles sees a boost in sales based of various senarios, like during the holidays, when they get a pricecut and/or when a popular game comes out etc. Does older movies (for example Transformers 2) see a boost in visitors during the holiday seasons for example? Or are there factors (like for example later ad campaigns and/or price drop on the movie tickets) that boost the ticket sales? These are serious questions, i am wondering about it.

It's a non-sensical argument that isn't grounded in fact or reason.

Ye, if he mean it as a serious argument that the PS3 will sell 57k each week in average for about 1 year i agree that there isnt much facts that back this up, but how much reason or fact was it to back up the 150k PS3 Slim and PS3 pricedrop sales when the PS3 was first launched? Pesonally i dont think that the PS3 could sell as much as 57k each week in average for about 1 year in Japan, i totally agree about this, but i just wanted to say that facts and reasons doesnt always apply to every senarios in this console generation since rather unexpected things have happend earlier in this console generation, so who knows what unexpected things that will happend in the future?

EDIT: I added some text.

EDIT 2: A late edit here, i am sorry, but after reading your post again i wanted to ask, do you mean that it non-sensical that the PS3 can sell about 30k each week in average for about 1 year as well and not just 57k?

 

[SlipperySlope]

The problem is it will likely be significantly lower than 57k next week.

I was expecting this week to come in around 75K. Not sure what the supply situation is, but some people here are saying it's not sold out.

At this rate, I wouldn't be surprised if it sells 20-25K next week. As for predicting a new baseline, that is impossible at this juncture.

 

[DMeisterJ]

I expect next week Slim to be < 30k.

Yep, right on the heels of ToV's release.

Makes perfect sense that an RPG starved console gets a good RPG and sales drop.

 

[SlipperySlope]

Yep, right on the heels of ToV's release.

Makes perfect sense that an RPG starved console gets a good RPG and sales drop.

Tales games don't sell systems.

< 30K is just about guaranteed.

 

[Xeke]

Well it had a good run.

 

[AdventureRacing]

Yep, right on the heels of ToV's release.

Makes perfect sense that an RPG starved console gets a good RPG and sales drop.

A couple of things wrong with this. Firstly this game has already been released a long time ago. So people have already had the chance to play it reducing the chances of it selling consoles.

Secondly this isn't a normal week. If the PS3 was already at its baseline for sales you would expect sales to go up. However this week PS3 sales are being inflated by a huge spike coming off a price drop. Like all massive spikes the PS3's sales are coming down pretty fast. So unless Vesperia can sell at least 20K+ consoles PS3's sales are going to drop this week.

 

[donny2112]

Archived ranking page from GameJapan.
2000 = 7 weeks (Top 30)

Oct 29, 2000 shows DQVII at 3,910,012 and selling 8K that week.
Nov 28, 2004 shows DQVII at 3.834m LTD.

Any ideas?

 

[jay]

Obviously the game sold 7,744,012 copies.

 

[bttb]

.

 

[charlequin]

Makes perfect sense that an RPG starved console gets a good RPG and sales drop.

The PS3 is 100% going to drop next week, the only question is by how much.

 

[BishopLamont]

The PS3 will drop below 20k next week, ToV ain't gonna do jack. Unless the price has hold out alot of people then it'll do a bit better, maybe 30k.

 

[DR2K]

Tales games don't sell systems.

< 30K is just about guaranteed.

They sold a shit ton of X360s.

 

[Chris1964]

Yep, right on the heels of ToV's release.

Makes perfect sense that an RPG starved console gets a good RPG and sales drop.

It's not working that way. If Vesperia was coming right after PS3 slim, would sales rise again? To what, 200k? But yes, some predictions seem too stretched. PS3 <30k for next week? And opening week for Vesperia<100k? Nothing of these is going to happen (The first maybe if this time there is really a shortage).

According to Media Create, DQIX>DQVII (2 weeks earlier from famitsu and dengeki)

DQVII: 3.834.000
DQIX: 3.844.335

Good work DQIX. Two more trackers to go.

 

[jeremy1456]

By the first of November PS3 sales will be back to their previous sub 10k levels.

I'm calling it right now.

 

[DCharlie]

whats the supply situation in japan? I was suprised when someone commented how it is hard to find slim at retail in germany - it definetly caught Sony off guard.

can only go on anecdotal evidence, but there is no shortage of PS3 slims new OR second hand already in stores in Shibuya, Shinjuku or Akihabara.

As i said, it's going to take a month to settle and even at 50k it's still doing a lot better than it was - but if it's not consistant and it's just mopping up what residual demand there was then the PS3 Slim isn't going to change the complexion of Japanese gaming (i.e. Wii DS PSP continue to dominate, no mass move of japanese projects to PS3 etc)

I mentioned it before and i think you laughed, but i think the demand in Japan is completely overstated - Europe is the place for the PS3 with America after that.

 

[androvsky]

They sold a shit ton of X360s.

So are we assuming everyone willing to buy a console for Tales of Vesperia has done so already?

 

[jeremy1456]

So are we assuming everyone willing to buy a console for Tales of Vesperia has done so already?

I actually took his post as meaning the complete opposite.

 

[androvsky]

I actually took his post as meaning the complete opposite.

So did I, I guess I should've thrown in a smiley or something.

 

[DR2K]

So are we assuming everyone willing to buy a console for Tales of Vesperia has done so already?

I think there's a a considerable amount of Tales fans that refused to purchase an X360 and that most likely will get it for the PS3/buy a PS3 for it. Mainline tales games were pretty big sellers on the PS2, I remember Abyss selling 600k over there.

 

[Brofist]

By the first of November PS3 sales will be back to their previous sub 10k levels.

I'm calling it right now.

There is no way in hell it's returning sub 10k by November, or again in 2009 for that matter.

 

[Gadfly]

I think there's a a considerable amount of Tales fans that refused to purchase an X360 and that most likely will get it for the PS3/buy a PS3 for it. Mainline tales games were pretty big sellers on the PS2, I remember Abyss selling 600k over there.

define "considerable".

 

[Chris1964]

According to amazon.jp and some other japanese retailers the next shipment of Pokemon HG/SS will be available on Saturday 19/09/09. Nintendo hasn't restocked yet? These pokewalkers really keep down the sales. The used market for Pokemon was always low but this time it must be almost non existant.

 

[laserbeam]

According to amazon.jp and some other japanese retailers the next shipment of Pokemon HG/SS will be available on Saturday 19/09/09. Nintendo hasn't restocked yet? These pokewalkers really keep down the sales. The used market for Pokemon was always low but this time it must be almost non existant.

Seems like another Mario kart Wii type issue. Was so rare in the States for months due to that wheel

 

[Brofist]

What? How would dropping back to 10K be impossible? I'd say there are pretty decent odds that it happens before December.

There are a decent amount of mid level hype releases from now until FFXIII to keep the PS3 at the 20k level. I'd be surprised to see it hit 10k this year.

 

[Road]

By the first of November PS3 sales will be back to their previous sub 10k levels.

I'm calling it right now.

1st of November will be the week with Tekken 6 launch. Don't think so. It'll have to happen before that or it won't happen this year anymore.

Someone did this list earlier, so I'll put it here again:

09/17 - Tales of Vesperia, Tears to Tiara
09/24 -

10/01 - Shin Sangoku Musou MultiRaid Special, Ninja Gaiden Sigma 2
10/08 - White Knight Chronicles EX Edition
10/15 - Uncharted 2
10/22 - FIFA 10
10/29 - Tekken 6, Bayonetta

11/05 - 3D Dot Game Heroes
11/12 - Dragon Ball Raging Blast
11/19 - Ratchet & Clank Future 2
11/26 -

12/03 -
12/10 -
12/17 - Final Fantasy XIII
12/24 -

In bold, the games that I think have more chances of selling over 100k, which would help preventing sales decline. (Missing on the list are PES2010 and GT5.)

You can see October is the likely candidate for sales around 10k, having three weeks without significant releases.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Here's how some previous big bumps went down for comparison purposes. Using Media Create hardware numbers.

Gundabump: Jumped to 44K. Was under 10K ten weeks later; this was the first time PS3 went under 10K.

HSG5: Jumped to 29K in July 2007 and actually stayed over 10K throughout the rest of the year. However, eight weeks after the bump it was under 11K for the first time.

MGS4: Jumped to 75K. Next under 10K seven weeks later.

FFVIIAC: Jumped to 63K. Though under 11K five weeks later, it took an additional seven weeks to actually hit 4 digits again.


Considering this is the biggest bump of all, and the previous ones tended to take a couple months to get to 10K, I think the holiday upswing will take effect in time to prevent it.

 

[donny2112]

Media Create heavily overtracks DQVII sales in 2000. Media Create later revises their weekly/LTD figures.

The following press release shows DQVII shipments passing 4.00M on Jan 05, 2000.
Enix PR

Media Create's total is over 3.90M through Oct 29, 2000. Dengeki and Famitsu's total is closer to 3.70M.

Thanks for the research, bttb.

There are a decent amount of mid level hype releases from now until FFXIII to keep the PS3 at the 20k level. I'd be surprised to see it hit 10k this year.

I think eventually going sub-20K this year is a definite. Not so sure about sub-10K, though.

 

[donny2112]

Famitsu Sep 7-13

1. NDS Pokemon Heart Gold/Soul Silver (Nintendo/Pokemon Co.) - 1,408,980 / NEW
2. NDS Tomodachi Collection (Friend Collection) (Nintendo)
3. NDS Dragon Quest IX: Defenders of the Starry Sky (Square Enix)
4. WII Wii Sports Resort (Nintendo)
5. PS3 Kidou Senshi Gundam Senki: Lost War Chronicles (Namco Bandai)
6. PS3 Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare (Legendary Edition) (Activision)
7. NDS Love Plus (Konami)
8. NDS Sloane and MacHale's Mysterious Story 2 (Level 5)
9. PSP Monster Hunter Portable 2 G (BEST) (Capcom)
10. PSP MAPLUS Portable Navigator 3 (Edia Co.)

http://www.famitsu.com/game/rank/sokuho/1227629_1796.html

 

[Road]

Wow at COD4.

 

[DMeisterJ]

Famitsu Sep 7-13

1. NDS Pokemon Heart Gold/Soul Silver (Nintendo/Pokemon Co.) - 1,408,980 / NEW
2. NDS Tomodachi Collection (Friend Collection) (Nintendo)
3. NDS Dragon Quest IX: Defenders of the Starry Sky (Square Enix)
4. WII Wii Sports Resort (Nintendo)
5. PS3 Kidou Senshi Gundam Senki: Lost War Chronicles (Namco Bandai)
6. PS3 Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare (Legendary Edition) (Activision)
7. NDS Love Plus (Konami)
8. NDS Sloane and MacHale's Mysterious Story 2 (Level 5)
9. PSP Monster Hunter Portable 2 G (BEST) (Capcom)
10. PSP MAPLUS Portable Navigator 3 (Edia Co.)

http://www.famitsu.com/game/rank/sokuho/1227629_1796.html

MH3 gone (from top 10) and MHP2G still charting.

:O

 

[archnemesis]

nvm

 

[donny2112]

Legendary Edition? Is this the same COD4 that was released on the 360 almost two years ago?

This is the third COD4 release in Japan.

COD4 - 12/27/2007
COD4 (Map Pack included) - 7/3/2008
COD4 (Legendary Edition) - 9/10/2009

 

[spidye]

Famitsu Sep 7-13

1. NDS Pokemon Heart Gold/Soul Silver (Nintendo/Pokemon Co.) - 1,408,980 / NEW
2. NDS Tomodachi Collection (Friend Collection) (Nintendo)
3. NDS Dragon Quest IX: Defenders of the Starry Sky (Square Enix)
4. WII Wii Sports Resort (Nintendo)
5. PS3 Kidou Senshi Gundam Senki: Lost War Chronicles (Namco Bandai)
6. PS3 Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare (Legendary Edition) (Activision)
7. NDS Love Plus (Konami)
8. NDS Sloane and MacHale's Mysterious Story 2 (Level 5)
9. PSP Monster Hunter Portable 2 G (BEST) (Capcom)
10. PSP MAPLUS Portable Navigator 3 (Edia Co.)

http://www.famitsu.com/game/rank/sokuho/1227629_1796.html

wat? a fps higher charted than a dating sim and monster hunter? what happened?

 

[jcm]

According to amazon.jp and some other japanese retailers the next shipment of Pokemon HG/SS will be available on Saturday 19/09/09. Nintendo hasn't restocked yet? These pokewalkers really keep down the sales. The used market for Pokemon was always low but this time it must be almost non existant.

What's the point of the pokewalkers from Nintendo's point of view? Do they add margin? Suppress used game sales? Sell Pokemon games to people who wouldn't otherwise buy them?

There must be a good reason to include them, especially if they are slowing game production. Otherwise Nintendo is leaving money on the table.

 

[cw_sasuke]

What's the point of the pokewalkers from Nintendo's point of view? Do they add margin? Suppress used game sales? Sell Pokemon games to people who wouldn't otherwise buy them?

There must be a good reason to include them, especially if they are slowing game production. Otherwise Nintendo is leaving money on the table.

Piracy i would guess.