Support NeoGAF

[Stumpokapow]

Isn't the Wii still ahead of the PS2 at the same time frame in its life cycle in Japan?

around 1100k behind.

 

[Dragona Akehi]

I don't think anyone can successfully argue that Nintendo hasn't somehow squandered all of their goodwill and momentum with the Wii in Japan. It's been selling abysmally for over a year now. Just because the other consoles sold worse doesn't give the Wii a pass.

This same trend is starting to happen overseas too, in the US.

Portables are the future of Japan.

 

[gerg]

Christmas 2008 should teach them that tightrope walking without a safety rope is a stupid idea.

I think that's slightly disingenuous. Yes, it's Nintendo's fault for pinning all their hopes on WSR, but I think it's infeasible, at best, to demand that they could have expected its delay. What would you want from them? Should they have developed a similar game alongside WSR, just in case the latter failed to release on time? Should they have asked third-parties to develop similar games (that would compete with WSR) in case of this circumstance? That they may have bet on a losing horse is their problem, I agree. That this horse only started the race six months later isn't.

Yup. And as I've been saying for some time, it's Nintendo's own unwillingness to a) develop a superior internal software lineup, b) work closely with third parties to bring a strong lineup of titles to the system, and c) aggressively improve the value of their system to maintain valuable momentum that's screwed them over here. Unlike the DS, Nintendo hasn't adopted the strategy of a winner with the Wii; they've tried to rest on their laurels and rely on a woefully inadequate lineup of selling points to maintain its performance, which has led to the ongoing doldrums and (much worse) left them in a position where there is almost no conceivable way to turn things around in the short-term.

I was just going to post how I think that Nintendo's third-party strategy is more directly linked with their failings in Japan than in America, and there you go and beat me to it.

And yet, whilst I would say that Nintendo probably should have pursued a lot more titles over a year ago - which would have been released around now - I believe this imperative has only grown because of the prospect of a successful PS3 re-launch, which would beat them to the punch. If the PS3 Slim fails to provide continued momentum for the console, I think the "they may still have time" line is more valid. (Would it be fair to say that the lack of PS3 software in the charts suggests that relatively few who bought the system over the weekend were new owners?) 18k a week would still be sucky as hell, but much less of a white elephant if the competition is only managing 20k or less on the launch of a hardware revision.

Other than that, I would only want to nitpick your language.

I guess it all comes down to NSMB Wii in the end (and the eventual price cut failing that).

 

[Chris1964]

The Wii is the only market leading console not to drop its price. It is also the only market leading console to lose that position.

When did this happen? And the no price drop for DS because it started at a very low price is very simplistic. If it wasn't the massive success it is today and was way behind PSP like everyone was predicting then you would see many price drops. It had one in the U.S. when it started pulling very low numbers.

 

[Provider]

The Wii is the only market leading console not to drop its price. It is also the only market leading console to lose that position. Edit: This was a bit hyperbolic, since the Wii still has a much larger install base. What I mean is that it is selling week to week like a 2nd place console, and will probably be outsold this year by the PS3. (Unless Nintendo does something drastic, like a price drop)

About that Edit

Drastic would be if they started giving it away for free today or completely rebranded the system. Dropping the price is a common practice, expected move by now, not drastic at all.

Spoiler

Drastic: (adj.) 1. Severe or radical in nature; extreme. / 2. Taking effect violently or rapidly.

 

[Koren]

Rather than dropping the price, I'm thinking they could adding value by throwing a game in the box, like everywhere else in the world. It's cheaper for them to do this, and if the game is well chosen (I'd like to see a Wii+NSMB bundle at current Wii price for Japan), the results could be good.

 

[donny2112]

I'm thinking they could adding value by throwing a game in the box, like everywhere else in the world.

Won't help out enough long-term. Nintendo's been in trouble in Japan since Fall 2007, when they should've taken the "easy" path and made a traditional sequel to Wii Sports (expanded versions of original games + a few new ones). They've been mostly coasting for about two years now, and they are way overdue for some big measure steps. Price cut alone isn't a big enough step at this point. I'm not really sure they could do anything to bring them back to PS2's pace that wouldn't also be a bad trend for Nintendo's future (e.g. moneyhatting with actual money).

I think Nintendo's avoidance of taking "easy" paths has been their Achilles heel this generation in Japan. Price drop to boost sales? Easy path. Take the hard path of "capturing lightning in a bottle again" by putting out market shifting software. Straight sequels to big-selling launch titles? Easy path. Let's wait until we have something really big to go before making a sideways "sequel." They even seem to have abandoned the Wario Ware model of using new input methods to put out a new game (e.g. Balance Board). It's like all Nintendo can see is the home run, when they need a mix of "easy" singles and doubles to make the home runs that much more meaningful and maybe even score some runs without needing to hit one out of the park.

A 10,000 Yen price drop just before NSMB Wii would be a good start. Nintendo has a lot of catching up (to its own potential with the Wii) to do.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

Well, the last couple of years have seen the October conference hit in or just after the first week of the month so we won't have long to wait to find out if Nintendo intend to pull something out of the bag to try and move things back in their favour.

Playing the hypothetical game for a mo' if I was in their shoes, I would be inclined to try something like:

• Drop the price of the basic Wii package (the standalone in Japan, and the Wii Sports bundle in the West).
• Introduce a new bundle at the current price that adds significant value to the package. I'd go for a new SKU - Wii+, say - in a fresh colour, bundled with a Remote, M+ and Nunchuk. Other additions - perhaps more flash RAM, multiple Remotes or another accessory like the Classic Controller Pro - would be good too.
• A specific hardware bundle for NSMB Wii - perhaps a limited edition Famitsu colour scheme?
• Replace the Remote accessory SKU with a Remote-and-M+ SKU and maintain the current price.

There are other things that I think they should be looking at, but that would be a start.

If there is no news of a new hardware config or price drop out of the October conference, I'll be very surprised.

 

[schuelma]

I wonder if we might see the Fall Conference this month since TGS is earlier this year.

And I think some sort of bundle or price drop in conjunction with NSMB Wii is absolutely necessary.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Isn't the Wii still ahead of the PS2 at the same time frame in its life cycle in Japan?

Worldwide in time since first launch? Yes. Regionally since the time of each specific launch? No in Japan, yes in NA, and probably in Europe.

PS2 at 2-3 years in Japan was basically at its hardware peak, whereas Wii is doing far worse than it previously was.

What I mean is that it is selling week to week like a 2nd place console

Unless you mean second place like PSP, that's hyperbole. Second place home consoles in Japan are doing pretty well from a historical standard if they can maintain a pretty consistent 10K/week.

It's like all Nintendo can see is the home run, when they need a mix of "easy" singles and doubles to make the home runs that much more meaningful and maybe even score some runs without needing to hit one out of the park.

I like this analogy.

 

[Flying_Phoenix]

Portables are the future of Gaming.

Fixed.

 

[sphinx]

Won't help out enough long-term. Nintendo's been in trouble in Japan since Fall 2007

I'd like to know how mucha has sold the wii in average since then until now.

Maybe nintendo is happy selling 15k- 20k per week, from a business perspective, specially if people haven't shown any interest in HD consoles ( til this last week )

Nintendo selling from range 30k- 50k to 15k-20k could be just o.k. for them. I know that to many it won't make sense to suggest that nintendo is happy selling less but perhaps doing something to help matters is counterproductive in the longe term so maybe Nintendo's best bet is to remain like they are and wait for Fall/winter and see what happens.

If they had a gamecube-like kind of problem, I am sure as hell we would have seen already 10 colors, 3 price drops and all sort of first party bundles.

Even then, they didn't seem to care much. Nintendo is the master of " I dont give a fuck " and has always been. They lost 3rd party relationships, they lost everything, they afforded to have a blank year or two with no software for the gamecube.

Now that they have some sort of stability, I am not sure why would they care any more than before.

 

[charlequin]

The Wii is the only market leading console not to drop its price. It is also the only market leading console to lose that position.

Hey, welcome to the Wii-baiting club!

As for the DS, if the Wii had started out as cheap as the DS it wouldn't need a price drop. In fact, Nintendo could probably get away with raising the price. The DS seems like an example of reverse price-skimming. It gained an audience at a low price, became a better value because of the games released for that audience, then its price increased as an even larger audience sought it out for those games, as well as current audience members upgrading. So the no price drop policy on the DS worked only because it started out at a very low price.

More seriously, I agree very much with this. In my opinion, the DS was actually positioned below the lowest price that would cause people to hold out on buying the system at launch, so it had room to capture excess demand in the form of price hikes tied to "better value." The Wii is still priced above that threshold and therefore still has new consumers to capture at a lower price.

I believe this imperative has only grown because of the prospect of a successful PS3 re-launch, which would beat them to the punch.

I think that, despite Nintendo's (at least partially accurate) perception that their "competition" isn't relevant, this is true: seeing the PS3 potentially take off represents a threat to the Wii that puts increased pressure on Nintendo to revitalize its performance.

I don't really think the PS3 relaunch is going to "go anywhere" (in terms of actually transforming the system's market presence in a qualitative way), so in that sense I do think Nintendo still has some room to move, but, like, I still have to question what they're actually cooking up. I was saying in Q3 2008 that they needed to be taking action right then to stave off this kind of extended sales doldrum, and in the intervening year we've seen exactly one announcement that has any meaningful chance of doing so. So... when are they actually going to start reacting to the state of the market? I don't think waiting and waiting is a good approach.

(Would it be fair to say that the lack of PS3 software in the charts suggests that relatively few who bought the system over the weekend were new owners?)

I think it's fair to at least lean this way, though I think it's possible that a rich used software market is also to blame. What have software sales done for other previous systems that got relaunches of this sort?

I guess it all comes down to NSMB Wii in the end (and the eventual price cut failing that).

I expect NSMB to sell like gangbusters, but I'm not even going to try predicting how much it will or won't affect the hardware. :lol

It's like all Nintendo can see is the home run, when they need a mix of "easy" singles and doubles to make the home runs that much more meaningful and maybe even score some runs without needing to hit one out of the park.

This is a really apt metaphor, actually. On DS, Nintendo's contribution was almost entirely in the form of "swing for the bleachers" titles -- huge mega-hits like Brain Training, Nintendogs, and NSMB -- but the workmanlike gradual grind towards scoring was still getting accomplished by third-parties who stepped in to release titles that were extremely complementary to Nintendo's overall strategy.

The Wii's definitely had the mega-hits, and I think it's fair to suggest it's had many of the ultra-niche titles that help give a console's most devoted owners a reason to love it, but the independent, workmanlike releases are what's been missing and what third-parties have pretty clearly not stepped in to provide.

 

[Dragona Akehi]

Fixed.

As much as I would like this to be true, the market has not borne this statement outside of Japan.

 

[schuelma]

The Wii's definitely had the mega-hits, and I think it's fair to suggest it's had many of the ultra-niche titles that help give a console's most devoted owners a reason to love it, but the independent, workmanlike releases are what's been missing and what third-parties have pretty clearly not stepped in to provide.

Yeah. I've repeated this too many times now, but I think there are a decent amount of mid tier stuff coming this holiday from 3rd parties. However, I think it might be too late and those titles should have been hitting consistently last year.

 

[charlequin]

Yeah. I've repeated this too many times now, but I think there are a decent amount of mid tier stuff coming this holiday from 3rd parties. However, I think it might be too late and those titles should have been hitting consistently last year.

I agree. Graces, for example, is actually emblematic in like eight ways of the software I think Nintendo both could and should have secured for the system as far back as 2007.

 

[gerg]

I think that, despite Nintendo's (at least partially accurate) perception that their "competition" isn't relevant, this is true: seeing the PS3 potentially take off represents a threat to the Wii that puts increased pressure on Nintendo to revitalize its performance.

Simultaneous discussions on the same topic in different threads doesn't help, but I posted something in the other MC thread stating that the competition is only relevant (and thus only poses a concern for Nintendo) if Nintendo themselves are simultaneously failing at their own goals. That the PS3 may be stealing some of Nintendo's potential audience wouldn't be such a concern were they still selling 50k a week to an entirely different part of that audience without any competition in that area.

I was saying in Q3 2008 that they needed to be taking action right then to stave off this kind of extended sales doldrum, and in the intervening year we've seen exactly one announcement that has any meaningful chance of doing so. So... when are they actually going to start reacting to the state of the market? I don't think waiting and waiting is a good approach.

Invariably, Nintendo has been caught with their pants down, but if they can pull them back up and still be crowned Prom King it may not have mattered too much.

I think it's fair to at least lean this way, though I think it's possible that a rich used software market is also to blame. What have software sales done for other previous systems that got relaunches of this sort?

I'm not sure. Either way, it's certainly too early to tell.

 

[Flying_Phoenix]

As much as I would like this to be true, the market has not borne this statement outside of Japan.

But society in general is definitely showing a movement toward more quieter, sleeker, and portable hardware.

I admit saying that it's a definite future is a pretty big stretch, but I think that we are gradually progressing toward that.

 

[charlequin]

Simultaneous discussions on the same topic in different threads doesn't help, but I posted something in the other MC thread stating that the competition is only relevant (and thus only poses a concern for Nintendo) if Nintendo themselves are simultaneously failing at their own goals. That the PS3 may be stealing some of Nintendo's potential audience wouldn't be such a concern were they still selling 50k a week to an entirely different part of that audience without any competition in that area.

Yeah, I agree.

And, I mean, I certainly don't think it's impossible for the Wii to ultimately go down as an overall successful system with a strong software library (rather than a fairly successful system with the slight whiff of missed possibilities) in the end, it's just that it gets harder with each day.

 

[Leon S. Kennedy]

I wouldn't worry too much about Nintendo. They're making a huge profit for each wii sold (over $100 per console). They would rather have more money than increase market share.

 

[t3nmilez]

The first day->first week numbers for Love Plus are almost identical to Dream Club's last week. Heh, I guess there's some shared ground between the two!

 

[dolemite]

As much as I would like this to be true, the market has not borne this statement outside of Japan.

If you count iPhones/iPod Touches, then it is true outside of Japan.

 

[cvxfreak]

ethelred's been talking about how the consoles and handhelds are really in one big arena now, rather than being separate as was commonly viewed in previous generations.

With that in mind, would Nintendo need to drop the price of the DSi if they dropped the price of the Wii? A ¥19,800 Wii and a ¥18,900 DSi would make the DSi look like a pretty bad value in comparison. We certainly don't need a DSi price drop.

 

[shykyoichi]

: (

There's no measure of the amount of sadness in that post.

 

[jj984jj]

There's no measure of the amount of sadness in that post.

So true. LKS deserves so much better.

 

[schuelma]

PS3 151,783
DSi 60,419
PSP 22,184
Wii 21,557
DS Lite 8,309
Xbox 360 6,827
PS2 3,001


Great PS3 number

Weak Wii number, and honestly a weak PSP number as well.

 

[cvxfreak]

Great numbers for the PS3 and DS.

 

[EDarkness]

PS3 151,783
DSi 60,419
PSP 22,184
Wii 21,557
DS Lite 8,309
Xbox 360 6,827
PS2 3,001


Great PS3 number

Weak Wii number, and honestly a weak PSP number as well.

I don't understand how the Wii and PSP numbers are weak. Microsoft would LOVE to be putting up those numbers.

 

[schuelma]

I don't understand how the Wii and PSP numbers are weak. Microsoft would LOVE to be putting up those numbers.

In relation to their previous performance, yes, I would call them weak.

 

[markatisu]

I don't understand how the Wii and PSP numbers are weak. Microsoft would LOVE to be putting up those numbers.

Because neither is as high as it used to be, the Wii is back to its baseline of 20ish despite having a big game like MH3 or WSR

 

[viciouskillersquirrel]

PS3 151,783
DSi 60,419
PSP 22,184
Wii 21,557
DS Lite 8,309
Xbox 360 6,827
PS2 3,001


Great PS3 number

Weak Wii number, and honestly a weak PSP number as well.

I would say it's the effect of substitution going on. It seems there are a number of potential Wii and PSP purchasers who would prefer a PS3 instead but suffered from sticker shock. The overlap isn't huge, but it's there.

 

[DMeisterJ]

PSP is really falling off without releases. It's held up forever, but it needs MHP3 or Agito XIII or BBS or 3rd Birthday or something really big, soon.

Hope Konami announce MHP3 for PSP soon.

 

[viciouskillersquirrel]

PSP is really falling off without releases. It's held up forever, but it needs MHP3 or Agito XIII or BBS or 3rd Birthday or something really big, soon.

Hope Konami announce MHP3 for PSP soon.

That'll be next year, methinks. They have to let MH3 vanilla have some time to breathe.

 

[Liabe Brave]

But society in general is definitely showing a movement toward more quieter, sleeker, and portable hardware.

Except that TVs are getting quieter, sleeker, and much, much larger on average. This trend will support the continued existence (and, I'd argue, expansion) of home gaming. Yes, the largest number of new games and new gamers will certainly be on portable hardware, due to the ever-growing power and ubiquity of cellphones. And that segment will grow fastest, making home gaming a gradually less powerful voice in the market.

So if that's what you mean by "the future of", then I agree. I just don't think the portable segment will drive the home segment into decline; it'll simply outstrip it. Even in Japan, that handheld heaven where everyone has 20 cellphones and the DS and PSP have ruled the roost, the three home consoles have sold about as many combined units as the three home consoles did by this same point last generation.

 

[kassatsu]

edit: wrong thread.

 

[EDarkness]

In relation to their previous performance, yes, I would call them weak.

They can't stay up forever. Being about 20k per week is pretty good in my opinion. Sure, not as good as last year, but times change and so do market conditions.

Because neither is as high as it used to be, the Wii is back to its baseline of 20ish despite having a big game like MH3 or WSR

One game isn't gonna change the Wii's image. It needs more than that.

 

[Dalthien]

Weak Wii number, and honestly a weak PSP number as well.

It's amazing to me how many people take notice and comment (and rightly so in many cases) on the Wii hardware numbers week after week, but so very few people seem to take notice that the PSP numbers have been on the same trajectory as the Wii for a long time now.

I tried pointing this out some time ago. I don't think the Wii numbers being down to their current levels have so much to do with Nintendo as they do with the Japanese market as a whole. That's not to say that Nintendo (and/or 3rd-parties) haven't contributed to the mediocre sales of the Wii - because they certainly have. But it goes deeper than that. The Japanese market is down across the board. The DS has been the only consistent success this past year. Everything else has been mediocre or just plain awful.

I really think the contraction in the Japanese market has really only left room for one dominant system - at least until the market as a whole picks up again in Japan. In the past generation, there was a dominant console (PS2) and a dominant handheld (GBA), and both systems found consistent success. This generation, it seems as though the Japanese marketplace has really migrated to a different model. Before, there were two dominant systems, and then a bunch of crap. Now, there is one super-duper-ultra-dominant system, a couple of mediocre systems, and some crap. The Wii had a nice run for the first 12-18 months. The PSP had a nice year following MH2P. But they've both retreated back to mediocre status, and they've both done so at a fairly similar pace.

The DS seems to have captured both the PS2 audience, and the GBA audience, as well as the expanded audience - which really doesn't leave any room for another system to sell at the pace of the PS2 on a consistent long-term basis. At least not until the Japanese market as a whole expands again by a significant amount.

 

[FrankT]

I don't think anyone can successfully argue that Nintendo hasn't somehow squandered all of their goodwill and momentum with the Wii in Japan. It's been selling abysmally for over a year now. Just because the other consoles sold worse doesn't give the Wii a pass.

This same trend is starting to happen overseas too, in the US.

Portables are the future of Japan.

I was almost on train with this until I saw the latest NPD numbers with the Wii bump for the month. They could finish quite strong for the year here.

 

[schuelma]

It's amazing to me how many people take notice and comment (and rightly so in many cases) on the Wii hardware numbers week after week, but so very few people seem to take notice that the PSP numbers have been on the same trajectory as the Wii for a long time now.
.

Yeah, I've pointed it out a few times as well but no one seems to be noticing. It's actually arguably fallen lower than Wii considering how great it did last year.

 

[radcliff]

Because neither is as high as it used to be, the Wii is back to its baseline of 20ish despite having a big game like MH3 or WSR

Wasn't Wii hovering around 10K-ish prior to WSR and MH3?

 

[schuelma]

Wasn't Wii hovering around 10K-ish prior to WSR and MH3?

I don't think it was quite that low..15-17k ish?

 

[charlequin]

With that in mind, would Nintendo need to drop the price of the DSi if they dropped the price of the Wii?

I don't think they would.

It's amazing to me how many people take notice and comment (and rightly so in many cases) on the Wii hardware numbers week after week, but so very few people seem to take notice that the PSP numbers have been on the same trajectory as the Wii for a long time now.

Yeah, that's probably fair, actually. The PSP is off its step without a really major release in a white now.

 

[Minsc]

So how many weeks in a row of 100K+ sales will the PS3 see? Wonder if the new PS3 bottom will level off above the Wii now.

 

[DMeisterJ]

That'll be next year, methinks. They have to let MH3 vanilla have some time to breathe.

But MH3 is already having respiratory problems... Think it's time to get MHP3 out.

 

[schuelma]

So how many weeks in a row of 100K+ sales will the PS3 see? .

Umm.....1?

 

[VOOK]

Nintendo will see out the year with the Wii exactly the same it is now - but by the end of the their next Financial year things might change.

 

[Road]

It's amazing to me how many people take notice and comment (and rightly so in many cases) on the Wii hardware numbers week after week, but so very few people seem to take notice that the PSP numbers have been on the same trajectory as the Wii for a long time now.

Because the PSP numbers going down is easily explainable: Japan is a portable only gaming market...

It has nothing to do with a constant influx of new games.

PSP games that sold more than 100k this year ("Yay!" for arbitrary sales bar):

1. Shin Sangoku Musou: Multi Raid
2. Tales of the World: Radiant Mythology 2
3. World Soccer Winning Eleven 12: PES 2009
4. Tales of Versus
5. The Idolm@ster SP: Perfect Sun/Missing Moon/Wandering Star
6. Sengoku Basara: Battle Heroes
7. Kidou Senshi Gundam: Senjou no Kizuna Portable
8. Hatsune Miku: Project Diva
9. Persona
10. Boku no Natsuyasumi 4

4 of the top 5 games were released in February and March; 7 of the top 10, until April. What he have since May so far is the nth Tales game on the system, Project Diva and Boku no Natsuyasumi. On top of that, not one single new color to shake things up since March either.

One S-E big game per year can't keep you high forever. But 2010 seems much more promising, with RE, MGS, FFXIII Agito etc.

 

[Y2Kev]

Yeah, actually, I think Sony has been aware of PSP sales lagging over the past 6 months. Unfortunately, Sony's solution in the short-term is the PSP Go :lol

GT PSP should be fairly big. October 1 I believe.

 

[markatisu]

But MH3 is already having respiratory problems... Think it's time to get MHP3 out.

Why MHP2G is trucking alone at the same pace

Capcom can ride that and MH3 to the bank until the Spring

You seem to think Capcom needs to go from rich to Uncle Scrooge money vault rich

 

[GaussTek]

Portables are the future of Japan.

Exactly! It is inminent.