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[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Oh, thank you ziran and AniHawk

It seems EXA is doing okay, hopefully its also a little better than Neo ><

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Oh, I found Shining Tears (65,873 - Shining Tears (PS2)), it seems there is a small but loyal base for shining games out there.

Hopefully Shining Wind is also better than Tears ^^u

 

[justchris]

Really?

Well, okay, not that easy. I mean, models are easy, textures would need some slight reworking, AA is pretty easy on 360, not quite as easy on PS3, AI would need a lot of work, physics would be the same, but shadowing and light sources would have to be almost entirely reworked for the new resolution. It's still cheaper than porting a game that uses the full power of the 360 to the PS3 and vice versa, because the hardware architecture is so different. Because the Wii is a single core, you ca do everything that it does using just one core of the 360 or the main core of the PS3, with the possible exception of AI since the Wii has a broader, OOE instruction set, and probably more CPU cache.

But yes, other than that, it'd be pretty easy.

 

[Ash Sparrow]

Sony can still moneyhat their exclusives and get more news ones. They are not poor. Don't underestimate them.

And they will DO EVERYTHING to win. So far, MS has played the implicitly help Nintendo to dethrone Sony angle but nothing stops Sony from doing the same against MS, well unless they continue blundering like they have.

And my 8-ball predicts they will stop March 2007.

seems to me Sonys dethroning Sony

 

[aloof]

I'm not sure why my post recieved so much ridicule. This is my opinion. I feel that the Wii simply doesn't have enough compelling software in the pipeline to keep selling at this rate. Once people realize this fact and get over the novelty aspect of Wii, they will return to Sony and Playstation. PS3 has already sold fairly well in Japan despite the price and lack of a single good title geared for that region. This is a 5+ year race, not a few months. People aren't going to skip games with incredible next-gen graphics, animation, physics and AI just to play the same rehashed Nintendo franchises except with a remote. Who's going to want to play these types of games and non-games that we see on Wii a year or two down the line when games like MGS4, FF13, Killzone, Naughty Dog's game, WKS, DMC4, Assassin's Creed, Heavenly Sword, Gran Turismo 5 and so on, are released? Several of those titles are coming out this year, in a matter of months. People who think gamers are going to abandon all of great aspects of gaming next-gen brings to the table are kidding themselves. I sincerely expect PS3 to regain its dominance later in the year. It's just a matter of time. Again, this isn't a 3 month race. If you don't agree with me, I'd like to know why in a civil manner rather than emoticons.

 

[AniHawk]

I'm not sure why my post recieved so much ridicule. This is my opinion. I feel that the Wii simply doesn't have enough compelling software in the pipeline to keep selling at this rate. Once people realize this fact and get over the novelty aspect of Wii, they will return to Sony and Playstation. PS3 has already sold fairly well in Japan despite the price and lack of a single good title geared for that region. This is a 5+ year race, not a few months. People aren't going to skip games with incredible next-gen graphics, animation, physics and AI just to play the same rehashed Nintendo franchises except with a remote. Who's going to want to play these types of games and non-games that we see on Wii a year or two down the line when games like MGS4, FF13, Killzone, Naughty Dog's game, WKS, DMC4, Assassin's Creed, Heavenly Sword, Gran Turismo 5 and so on, are released? Several of those titles are coming out this year, in a matter of months. People who think gamers are going to abandon all of great aspects of gaming next-gen brings to the table are kidding themselves. I sincerely expect PS3 to regain its dominance later in the year. It's just a matter of time. Again, this isn't a 3 month race. If you don't agree with me, I'd like to know why in a civil manner rather than emoticons.

 

[Luckyman]

compelling software

Wii Play & Sports will never wear off.. and they will sell a shitload of Wii´s.

 

[PkunkFury]

I'm not sure why my post recieved so much ridicule. This is my opinion. I feel that the Wii simply doesn't have enough compelling software in the pipeline to keep selling at this rate. Once people realize this fact and get over the novelty aspect of Wii, they will return to Sony and Playstation. PS3 has already sold fairly well in Japan despite the price and lack of a single good title geared for that region. This is a 5+ year race, not a few months. People aren't going to skip games with incredible next-gen graphics, animation, physics and AI just to play the same rehashed Nintendo franchises except with a remote. Who's going to want to play these types of games and non-games that we see on Wii a year or two down the line when games like MGS4, FF13, Killzone, Naughty Dog's game, WKS, DMC4, Assassin's Creed, Heavenly Sword, Gran Turismo 5 and so on, are released? Several of those titles are coming out this year, in a matter of months. People who think gamers are going to abandon all of great aspects of gaming next-gen brings to the table are kidding themselves. I sincerely expect PS3 to regain its dominance later in the year. It's just a matter of time. Again, this isn't a 3 month race. If you don't agree with me, I'd like to know why in a civil manner rather than emoticons.

the idea that you accuse Nintendo of pushing the "same rehashed franchises" and go on to predict that people are looking forward to MGS4, FF13, DMC4, Gran Turismo 5 is mind boggling. Particularly if you look in this very thread and notice the two games driving wii sales are new and unique IPs. The problem your having is you expect everybody wants the same thing from a game that you do. Perhaps other hardocre gaming nerds are interested in the titles you mentioned as well, but Nintendo's strategy, as with the DS, is to catch a larger audience, and those titles you mentioned simply won't do it. You think the Wii doesn't have any compelling software, but the majority of the people buying these consoles do.

 

[Pureauthor]

I'm not sure why my post recieved so much ridicule. This is my opinion. I feel that the Wii simply doesn't have enough compelling software in the pipeline to keep selling at this rate.

To this most people would state the precedent of the DS. The insane sales of the 'nongames' have seemingly overshadowed the fact that the number of nongames out is actually very small. Casuals and nongamers don't need a constant influx of new games to keep them interested in a system.

Once people realize this fact and get over the novelty aspect of Wii, they will return to Sony and Playstation. PS3 has already sold fairly well in Japan despite the price and lack of a single good title geared for that region.

I don't know how the console war will turn out, but 20K units for a Playstation system, and so close to launch, is NOT 'fairly well' by any stretch of the term.

This is a 5+ year race, not a few months. People aren't going to skip games with incredible next-gen graphics, animation, physics and AI just to play the same rehashed Nintendo franchises except with a remote.

A rather weak assumption, considering that thus far, that is exactly what they have done.

Who's going to want to play these types of games and non-games that we see on Wii a year or two down the line when games like MGS4, FF13, Killzone, Naughty Dog's game, WKS, DMC4, Assassin's Creed, Heavenly Sword, Gran Turismo 5 and so on, are released? Several of those titles are coming out this year, in a matter of months. People who think gamers are going to abandon all of great aspects of gaming next-gen brings to the table are kidding themselves.

The problem is that the Wii is attempting to sell itself to people who don't play games. These people won't give a lick if all those games (and I admit the vast majority of them are great games) came out on the Wii, the PS3, or the Zune.

As for the hardcore gamers, they're the type who're more likely to own multiple consoles anyway, unless (like me), you have financial constraints. (In which case the Wii is the first candidate, it being the cheapest and all. Just ask the guy with Claus in his avatar.)

And the simple point is that you can't play the 'Wait until THIS game comes out.' game. It's been tried multiple times - it simply doesn't work unless the game turns out to be a cultural phenonemon type game (see: Pokemon, Brain Training, Nintendogs for Europe).

I sincerely expect PS3 to regain its dominance later in the year. It's just a matter of time. Again, this isn't a 3 month race. If you don't agree with me, I'd like to know why in a civil manner rather than emoticons.

Well, I don't claim to know the future. All I know is that it's currently doing absolutely awful.

(Hopefully, that was civil enough.)

 

[marvelharvey]

stuff

Welcome back Monorojo, we've all missed you!

 

[DefectiveReject]

I'm not sure why my post recieved so much ridicule. This is my opinion. I feel that the Wii simply doesn't have enough compelling software in the pipeline to keep selling at this rate. Once people realize this fact and get over the novelty aspect of Wii, they will return to Sony and Playstation. PS3 has already sold fairly well in Japan despite the price and lack of a single good title geared for that region. This is a 5+ year race, not a few months. People aren't going to skip games with incredible next-gen graphics, animation, physics and AI just to play the same rehashed Nintendo franchises except with a remote. Who's going to want to play these types of games and non-games that we see on Wii a year or two down the line when games like MGS4, FF13, Killzone, Naughty Dog's game, WKS, DMC4, Assassin's Creed, Heavenly Sword, Gran Turismo 5 and so on, are released? Several of those titles are coming out this year, in a matter of months. People who think gamers are going to abandon all of great aspects of gaming next-gen brings to the table are kidding themselves. I sincerely expect PS3 to regain its dominance later in the year. It's just a matter of time. Again, this isn't a 3 month race. If you don't agree with me, I'd like to know why in a civil manner rather than emoticons.

You like everyone have an opinion on the situation, but to say the PS3 is selling well is an overstatement.
Wii is doing well, PS3 isn’t. And the Wii has as many software titles as the PS3 on the market, but people are opting for Wii.
And the games in the pipeline for Wii this year are as good as if not better than most of what you have posted.
Yeah they sure look pretty, but so far that’s all we know about them. What we do know from the past is that Mario/Smash Bros/Metroid/SPM and more even if they are only good versions of their predecessors they are gonna be GREAT games, and games with a decent price for entry level. To play MGS4 as a new gamer I need to spend $600 or so. To play Mario Galaxy I need to spend $300 at most.

 

[AniHawk]

Oh come on people. Don't take the time to actually respond.

marvelharvey's got the right idea.

 

[Me_Marcadet]

Actually, I think Mario and Wario's sales at the time were more for people needing a game for their new DS. The same was reflected in America. Mario 64 was selling comparable to Zelda for the Wii. And this was less because it was OMG I need that! and it was, wow I have a DS... What game should I get? Oh... Mario 64. All right.
And looking at PS3 sales, the system sales are very disproportional to the content being bought for it. And admittedly, this is complete personal opinion without hard facts, but I do believe at a lower price point, even given the same situation would result in significantly higher sales on brand name/potential alone.




The PSP is a bad example because of its situation. It had a decent launch and only faltered when the DS engaged rockets, and the PSP philosophy became very evident.

I do agree with the last bit, but that strays from the point of the PS3's launch momentum. And really, any significant gaming creations in the future will still have the high price point to overcome (i've been saying this since the price announcement). I just assumed the launch honeymoon woulda been bigger. Actually, it might also be time based. If Sony had significant shipments to begin with, they might have reached multiple millions... But that's just an idle thought.



I really disagree with this, it's the freaking Playstation. The playstation brand should be enough to carry more than 500k units before running out of steam. The more I think about it, the time aspect mentioned above makes more sense. But anyway, even in the big DS hysteria, the PS2 games were doing decently, and taking out the DS games, the numbers weren't a dramatic departure from previous years.

It just seems like we see different significance in the PS brand.

The PS brand is not as strong at the DS one, look a the DS and all the multi million seller on it while on the ps2 there is basically FF,DQ and WE games.
The DS is the fastest selling console in japan, all in japan they play only on DS for 2 years and talk only about that.
PS brand is strong enough to sell console with a high price, but if there is no game people will prefer the wii with the most attractive game (wiisport) who is like the games on the DS.

The ps3 is old-fashioned. People don't want old franchise like RR and Gundam shit.
It's been already a problem when the ps2 was the leader, games were selling but not as much as on the DS.

Of course the sells would have been a bit stronger with a lower price, but with no games like hot shot golf or monster hunter or another new franchise who is not burried in japan, they would not be as strong as the wii one.

The traditionnal franchises will not save the ps3 either, sony really needs to create a new phenomen to counter nintendo, if they fail, they will lose japan.

On the contrary, in europe and USA, the price is the only thing who can hurt ps3 sales, the playstation brand is always the strongest and sony can respond to nintendo "nongamer" games with singstar and eyetoy.

 

[Pureauthor]

Oh come on people. Don't take the time to actually respond.

marvelharvey's got the right idea.

It's Friday night and I've nothing better to do.

Except play Warcraft III, which I'm doing in short intervals. And checking GAF and doing various other things like writing stories during the breaks.

 

[AniHawk]

It's Friday night and I've nothing better to do.

That reminds me. It's Friday morning, and I should catch some Zs.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

I'm not sure why my post recieved so much ridicule. This is my opinion. I feel that the Wii simply doesn't have enough compelling software in the pipeline to keep selling at this rate. Once people realize this fact and get over the novelty aspect of Wii, they will return to Sony and Playstation. PS3 has already sold fairly well in Japan despite the price and lack of a single good title geared for that region. This is a 5+ year race, not a few months. People aren't going to skip games with incredible next-gen graphics, animation, physics and AI just to play the same rehashed Nintendo franchises except with a remote. Who's going to want to play these types of games and non-games that we see on Wii a year or two down the line when games like MGS4, FF13, Killzone, Naughty Dog's game, WKS, DMC4, Assassin's Creed, Heavenly Sword, Gran Turismo 5 and so on, are released? Several of those titles are coming out this year, in a matter of months. People who think gamers are going to abandon all of great aspects of gaming next-gen brings to the table are kidding themselves. I sincerely expect PS3 to regain its dominance later in the year. It's just a matter of time. Again, this isn't a 3 month race. If you don't agree with me, I'd like to know why in a civil manner rather than emoticons.

Oh man...Why Junior members are so dumb ?

Anyway, we suppose that you're right. Then can you explain why the Nintendo DS has destroyed everything everywhere ? And why the Wii is selling like crazy in Japan, if compared with the Gamecube (that had Smash Bros.) ?

Please don't tell me that the handheld market is different or that Nintendo was king in the handheld space because these are bullshits and nothing else.
Nintendo has not used the GameBoy's brand and the Wii is literally surfing on Nintendo DS's success, because a game like Wii Sports in 2001 would have not sold like that. The market has changed because Nintendo has expanded the market to another audience, both with the DS and the Wii. And this market doesn't care about graphics like the hardcore. I'm really saying nothing new. But some people here justify DS's success with dumb motivations, so I have advised you.

Can you explain me ?

 

[radcliff]

I'm not sure why my post recieved so much ridicule. This is my opinion. I feel that the Wii simply doesn't have enough compelling software in the pipeline to keep selling at this rate.

Maybe for the US and Europe audiences, but for Japan, Nintendo is all set. They have Mario (2 games actually), Mario Party, Animal Crossing, Big Brain Acadamy, Super Smash Bros, Wii ____ games (i.e. Music, Motor Sports, etc.), and I'm sure a Mario Kart game in the works in addition to some key 3rd party support from Square-Enix (Dragon Quest Swords, Final Fantasy CC), and Capcom (original Resident Evil).

All those afore-mentioned games have proven to be big hits for Nintendo and show no indication of slowing down (well, maybe RE). On the other hand, how many of Sony's original stuff for PS3 (most of which seems tailored for the western markets) do you really think have a chance of being big sellers in Japan? Yeah, there's key support from 3rd parties with Final Fantasy XIII (its spinoffs), Metal Gear Solid 4, and Resident Evil 5. But those may not even be 2007 titles!

 

[justchris]

I'm not sure why my post recieved so much ridicule. This is my opinion. I feel that the Wii simply doesn't have enough compelling software in the pipeline to keep selling at this rate. Once people realize this fact and get over the novelty aspect of Wii, they will return to Sony and Playstation. PS3 has already sold fairly well in Japan despite the price and lack of a single good title geared for that region. This is a 5+ year race, not a few months. People aren't going to skip games with incredible next-gen graphics, animation, physics and AI just to play the same rehashed Nintendo franchises except with a remote. Who's going to want to play these types of games and non-games that we see on Wii a year or two down the line when games like MGS4, FF13, Killzone, Naughty Dog's game, WKS, DMC4, Assassin's Creed, Heavenly Sword, Gran Turismo 5 and so on, are released? Several of those titles are coming out this year, in a matter of months. People who think gamers are going to abandon all of great aspects of gaming next-gen brings to the table are kidding themselves. I sincerely expect PS3 to regain its dominance later in the year. It's just a matter of time. Again, this isn't a 3 month race. If you don't agree with me, I'd like to know why in a civil manner rather than emoticons.

I'll bite. I'm not as funny as Anihawk, but at least I can be civil.

I contend that the Wii has enough compelling content out right now that it can already compare to what the PS3 will have coming within the next 6 months. The fact that it has additional software coming in the next 6 months as well, many of which are equally compelling, if not more so, is pretty much just icing on the cake.

You make mention of 'rehashed Nintendo franchises except with a remote'. But if you've been paying attention, that's exactly what people aren't buying. They're buying games that are entirely new and unexpected. People are buying the Wii for games they can't get anywhere else, and which they couldn't get last generation. All the great games you've mentioned are just rehashes of what PS2, Xbox & GC had to offer last generation, which are just rehashes of what Nintendo offered back in the days of the NES.

This is not to say there's no value in those games, since obviously they are worthwhile endeavors. But if the Wii is going to succeed, it's going to succeed by attracting the people who have no interest in any of those games you mentioned, but are clawing over each other to get a chance to play Wii Sports. A group of people, incidentally, which outnumbers gamers by 10:1. The fact that the Wii also offers experiences comparable to what the PS3/360 offers means it can attract that other 10% of the population we would normally consider 'gamers'.

People were making fun of you not because you're wrong about the PS3 eventually winning out, because who knows, it very well might. They were making fun of you because you argument wasn't particularly logical and ignored the well-known counter arguments.

 

[ziran]

I've heard other people say this, and I think they're wrong. Think about this, some of the most popular games in the world are not the most graphically proficient. The Wii is focused, more than anything, on fun games, regardless of their graphical fidelity.

It would be fairly easy (and cheap) to port a game directly from the Wii to the 360/PS3, and just bump the graphics up to HD resolution, add some AA, and not even bother adding polys or redrawing textures. The hardest part will be shoehorning the controls into a scheme that works with a standard controller (or going back to your original scheme since most games have been shoehorned into a Wii control scheme). As long as the game is fun, no one is going to care it's not the prettiest game on the system.

I expect, if Wii comes out on top by a large margin, developers will do this generation what they did last, which is develop to the specification of the weakest machine, then make minor tweaks to get it on the other two.

I also don't think Nintendo will go for only a small leap in power next generation. They did it this generation because they were already taking a risk by reinventing the interface. You can take two huge risks at once, but the cost would have been prohibitive, and would definitely have killed them. One big risk gives you a chance of doom, but also a chance of reward. Two big risks pretty much guarantees doom.

If their interface risk pans out for this generation, they can refine it easily next generation without too much risk, and take a bigger risk on power, without pushing themselves outside a mass market price.

Nintendo will do everything they can to differentiate themselves from the competition, and if pushing more polygons is the only way to do it, that's how they will do it. But really, it depends on whether or not they can come up with a new way to differentiate themselves between now and then.

i don't think i understand what you're saying.

firstly, the difference in power between the wii and 360/ps3 is nothing like ps2/gc/xbox, which were similar. 360 and ps3 are almost a full generation ahead in terms of graphical power and operate at much higher resolutions, so it's like comparing a ps1 to ps2, or ds to psp.

secondly, if wii becomes the dominant console this gen it would prove graphics aren't important so why would nintendo increase the power of its next machine at all? i mean maybe go to hd with 2-3x the power, but what would be the point of going any more if consumers don't care about the graphical improvement?

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

To this most people would state the precedent of the DS. The insane sales of the 'nongames' have seemingly overshadowed the fact that the number of nongames out is actually very small. Casuals and nongamers don't need a constant influx of new games to keep them interested in a system.



I don't know how the console war will turn out, but 20K units for a Playstation system, and so close to launch, is NOT 'fairly well' by any stretch of the term.



A rather weak assumption, considering that thus far, that is exactly what they have done.



The problem is that the Wii is attempting to sell itself to people who don't play games. These people won't give a lick if all those games (and I admit the vast majority of them are great games) came out on the Wii, the PS3, or the Zune.

As for the hardcore gamers, they're the type who're more likely to own multiple consoles anyway, unless (like me), you have financial constraints. (In which case the Wii is the first candidate, it being the cheapest and all. Just ask the guy with Claus in his avatar.)

And the simple point is that you can't play the 'Wait until THIS game comes out.' game. It's been tried multiple times - it simply doesn't work unless the game turns out to be a cultural phenonemon type game (see: Pokemon, Brain Training, Nintendogs for Europe).



Well, I don't claim to know the future. All I know is that it's currently doing absolutely awful.

(Hopefully, that was civil enough.)

Yeah, I agree. How many times have we said this ? Too much !!! The market has changed and so the exigences of the market has changed too.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

Oh come on people. Don't take the time to actually respond.

marvelharvey's got the right idea.

We are only trying to be polite, after all. Yeah, perhaps we should ignore him, but I still think that the confontation can generate new ideas and new discussion.
Yeah, well, ......yeah, perhaps you're right.

 

[Bearillusion]

Wii Play & Sports will never wear off.. and they will sell a shitload of Wii´s.

Wii Sports is great and really shows of the potential of the Wii but Wii Play is a waste of space.

 

[DefectiveReject]

Wii Sports is great and really shows of the potential of the Wii but Wii Play is a waste of space.

yep a complete waste of space for £5 you get absolutely no fun at all from it!!!! :lol :lol

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

"The PS2 Would have done exactly the same with no lead"

"People don't want Nintendo "rehashes" they want Sony "rehashes""

"Just wait for Virtua Fighter V"

This thread is blowing my mind.

 

[justchris]

i don't think i understand what you're saying.

firstly, the difference in power between the wii and 360/ps3 is nothing like ps2/gc/xbox, which were similar. 360 and ps3 are almost a full generation ahead in terms of graphical power and operate at much higher resolutions, so it's like comparing a ps1 to ps2, or ds to psp.

secondly, if wii becomes the dominant console this gen it would prove graphics aren't important so why would nintendo increase the power of its next machine at all? i mean maybe go to hd with 2-3x the power, but what would be the point of going any more if consumers don't care about the graphical improvement?

Okay, let's consider some games that are reasonably popular. For instance, Guitar Hero or Katamari Damacy.

At no point do these games even come near taking full advantage of the PS2 hardware, yet they were two very popular games with excellent sales and superb word of mouth.

Even take a game like Grand Theft Auto 3. Even when it was released it wasn't anywhere near the prettiest game available for the system. But it was just really, really neat, and lots of fun, and provided a unique experience.

What this says to me is that no one has ever really cared that much about graphics. Sure, nice graphics are great, and for two games that are otherwise identical, the average person will always choose the better looking one. But fun wins out over graphics every.single.time.

If Nintendo proves that the Wiimote is more fun than the alternatives, they run into a problem with next generation. It's too late for Sony or Microsoft to copy the Wiimote now without the risk of splitting their userbase (less risky for Sony than for Microsoft), so it probably won't happen this generation.

But if Nintendo manages to sell 100 million Wiis this generation, Sony & Microsoft would have to be the least business savvy companies in the history of mankind not to try to emulate, and improve upon, what made the Wii so popular.

At that point, the burden of proof is on Sony and Microsoft, but we've already seen just how fast this market can change. Nintendo either has to keep up, or wildly diverge to stay ahead of the game. With the strides in user interface they've made this generation, it will be hard for them to completely change things again next generation, and the most we're likely to see on that front, even from Nintendo, is refinement and improvement upon what they already offer. So, in order to stay ahead, Nintendo will have to differentiate themselves from the competition yet again, and he way they can do that is by offering better graphics, better AI, better physics, better something. They at least have to be comparable to the competition.

Think about it, if the PS4, Wii 2 & Xbox 720 are all essentially equal in interface, which system are people most likely going to buy (assuming they all come out around the same time, and parity in game libraries)? They will obviously go for the greatest value between price and power.

Nintendo will need to at least keep up, or possibly push ahead, of the competition in some way to stay on top. I'm not saying that that automatically means their next system has to be more powerful, just that that is the most obvious way for them to go. I'm going to say that, as far as the world of gaming is concerned, the combined development of Nintendo is probably more creative than me, so there's a chance they might find another way to push ahead of the competition and disrupt the market yet again, but if they can't, they have to push more power or they'll be relegated to the back burner again after a single generation on top.

 

[Bearillusion]

yep a complete waste of space for £5 you get absolutely no fun at all from it!!!! :lol :lol

I thought it was a stand alone title in Japan?

 

[Krowley]

i don't think i understand what you're saying.

firstly, the difference in power between the wii and 360/ps3 is nothing like ps2/gc/xbox, which were similar. 360 and ps3 are almost a full generation ahead in terms of graphical power and operate at much higher resolutions, so it's like comparing a ps1 to ps2, or ds to psp.

secondly, if wii becomes the dominant console this gen it would prove graphics aren't important so why would nintendo increase the power of its next machine at all? i mean maybe go to hd with 2-3x the power, but what would be the point of going any more if consumers don't care about the graphical improvement?

I don't think consumers are really saying that graphics don't matter... I think they're just saying that price, and perhaps even interface, matter more than graphics, or at least just as much... Nintendo could easily make 360 level hardware for there next machine and still stay in the same price ballpark as the wii... By the same token, microsoft and sony could easily play the interface card next gen and make more inexpensive machines that would still be a graphics improvement over their current consoles. So in a situation like that, graphics WILL matter because everything else will be equalled out. If wii is a massive success, nintendo won't be able to pull this kind of suckerpunch on the competition again... Everybody will copy them, put their own twist on it, and it will all come down to marketing and games.

If wii wins by a wide margin, graphics will still improve, they'll just stop making consoles that try to compete with the current level of PC graphics. If this strategy fails for sony, the gap between console and pc graphics will permanently widen so that even at the very beginning of any generation, pc games are already miles and miles ahead of the best looking console games. That's what i would expect.

 

[Buffy4ever]

I ****ing hope you're wrong as ****. $150 is too much for a handheld system.

God, I tire of the "FACTORING INFLATION" bullshit. $300 in 2000 isn't THAT MUCH MORE than $300 in 2006 (it's what? A $40 difference max?). Gamers shouldn't be shrugging their shoulders at all these price increases and basically say, "well, it'd happen eventually." They didn't with the 3DO and they didn't do it with the Saturn.

AMEN!! This man speaks the truth. I too get tired of the Inflation argument to make Sony look good by it's fan. Sony overpriced thier gaming machine. It is as simple as that.

 

[SpoonyBard]

I thought it was a stand alone title in Japan?

Nope, comes with a controller.

 

[Bearillusion]

Oh ok. I take it back then.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

The reason that graphics have advanced so far in a relatively short amount of time is because they are the most tangible asset to a videogame. People coul immediately see the difference between the Genesis and the NES back in the day. The only difference back then was that there was a similar jump in gameplay as well. The hardware power allowed you to do more with the game.

The PS3 and 360 can't really lay claim to that. While the PS2/GC/XBOX generation cleaned up 3D and reduced hardware limitations related to game play over the previous gen, so far the 360 and PS3 only give you the graphics jump without the jump in gameplay ability. We're playing the same games we did last generation, but prettier.

This is why Microsoft and Sony are pushing HD down our throats so much (well, there's also that Blu-Ray thing, but that's another discussion) because it equates to a jump that before wasn't technically possible last gen. (The XBOX did have 720p games, but they were few and downplayed).

The Wii is such a big disruption now because it allows people to game in a different way, but also changes interactivity in gaming. It has provided the jump that we saw from the NES to the Genesis, or the Super Nintendo to the Playstation. HD is all well and good, but if there's no interactivity jump involved with it, why not just hang on to your Playstation 2? It still plays the same games, and is 400 dollars cheaper.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

The reason that graphics have advanced so far in a relatively short amount of time is because they are the most tangible asset to a videogame. People coul immediately see the difference between the Genesis and the NES back in the day. The only difference back then was that there was a similar jump in gameplay as well. The hardware power allowed you to do more with the game.

The PS3 and 360 can't really lay claim to that. While the PS2/GC/XBOX generation cleaned up 3D and reduced hardware limitations related to game play over the previous gen, so far the 360 and PS3 only give you the graphics jump without the jump in gameplay ability. We're playing the same games we did last generation, but prettier.

This is why Microsoft and Sony are pushing HD down our throats so much (well, there's also that Blu-Ray thing, but that's another discussion) because it equates to a jump that before wasn't technically possible last gen. (The XBOX did have 720p games, but they were few and downplayed).

The Wii is such a big disruption now because it allows people to game in a different way, but also changes interactivity in gaming. It has provided the jump that we saw from the NES to the Genesis, or the Super Nintendo to the Playstation. HD is all well and good, but if there's no interactivity jump involved with it, why not just hang on to your Playstation 2? It still plays the same games, and is 400 dollars cheaper.

True. And this explain why the Nintendo DS has been a lot more successfull then the PSP. The PSP was an extension of the PS2. The DS was something totally new.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

This is why Microsoft and Sony are pushing HD down our throats so much (well, there's also that Blu-Ray thing, but that's another discussion)

Actually, it's pretty much the same exact discussion. And your argument wins.

 

[Me_Marcadet]

The reason that graphics have advanced so far in a relatively short amount of time is because they are the most tangible asset to a videogame. People coul immediately see the difference between the Genesis and the NES back in the day. The only difference back then was that there was a similar jump in gameplay as well. The hardware power allowed you to do more with the game.

The PS3 and 360 can't really lay claim to that. While the PS2/GC/XBOX generation cleaned up 3D and reduced hardware limitations related to game play over the previous gen, so far the 360 and PS3 only give you the graphics jump without the jump in gameplay ability. We're playing the same games we did last generation, but prettier.

This is why Microsoft and Sony are pushing HD down our throats so much (well, there's also that Blu-Ray thing, but that's another discussion) because it equates to a jump that before wasn't technically possible last gen. (The XBOX did have 720p games, but they were few and downplayed).

The Wii is such a big disruption now because it allows people to game in a different way, but also changes interactivity in gaming. It has provided the jump that we saw from the NES to the Genesis, or the Super Nintendo to the Playstation. HD is all well and good, but if there's no interactivity jump involved with it, why not just hang on to your Playstation 2? It still plays the same games, and is 400 dollars cheaper.

true, but I believe that the ps3 and 360 will bring us new things a some point. It is juste more difficult to do. On the wii, the difference is so obvious.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

true, but I believe that the ps3 and 360 will bring us new things a some point. It is juste more difficult to do. On the wii, the difference is so obvious.

Well, to be fair, games like Dead Rising and Enchanted Arms, while still technically possible on the previous gens consoles, can only be pushed on the 360 and PS3. That said, it's still the same thing, but MORE.

We will probably see new things emerge with those two consoles, but like you said it will be much more difficult.

 

[plagiarize]

AMEN!! This man speaks the truth. I too get tired of the Inflation argument to make Sony look good by it's fan. Sony overpriced thier gaming machine. It is as simple as that.

it's about $42 according to the inflation calculator. (i had to do 1999 to 2005 as they don't have 2006 in there yet).

 

[D.Lo]

But if Nintendo manages to sell 100 million Wiis this generation, Sony & Microsoft would have to be the least business savvy companies in the history of mankind not to try to emulate, and improve upon, what made the Wii so popular.

I agree with what you're saying, but I don't see why MS or Sony would even bother with another console if the Wii sells 100 million.

Especially MS. They've lost, what, 8 billion dollars on XB/360 now? Why would they continue? Given the continual losses, the only possible goals they ever had in this 'video game' were to get Windows on your TV, or to stop Sony getting their 'windows' (ie entertainment computer hub) on your TV. If they fail miserable at this after 10 years of trying, do you really think they'll keep losing money 'for the love of games'?

And Sony's in a similar situation. The PS1 was an unexpected hit. Panasonic, NEC etc had already tried and failed in the market, Sony just got a lucky break from having their Nintendo experience and having an ok machine with the right tech (CD and decent 3D) at the right time. they played that hand brilliantly, and Nintendo and Sega played badly, so they won, and Sony's strategy moved behind the system

But Sony have failed in markets they owned before. Portable audio is the obvious example, and while they keep trying with a bunch of different products, they've become irrelevant.

----------------------------------
If Nintendo dominates this gen (still an if, mind you), then I'd expect MS to bow out, and Sony to still fail to get it, and follow up with an even worse bomb.

 

[jarrod]

Looks like

Wii -

Wii Music
Wii Fitness (?)
Super Paper Mario
Fire Emblem X: GoD
Big Brain Academy Wii
Mario Party 8
Dragon Quest Swords

PS3 -

Virtua Fighter 5
Gundam Mosou (sp?)
Ninja Gaiden Sigma
Enchanted Arms (?)


Are the respective "big hitters" for Japan console wise for the 1st half of the year. Pending delays and what not of course. I really don't see stuff like Motorstorm doing much over there though. I don't know what Enchanted Arms is really, but I listed it anyway.

I'd add in...

Wii
-Naruto Geitou Ninja Taisen EX (Takara Tomy)
-One Piece Unlimted Adventure (Bandai Namco)
-Mario Strikers Charged (Nintendo)
-Bokujou Monogatari: Yasuragi no Ki (MMV)
-Puzzle Series: Sudoku (Hudson)

PS3
-Minna no Golf 5 (SCEI)
-Monster Kingdom Unknown Realms (SCEI)

...and take EM out of the PS3 list (it won't even break 50k imo).

 

[Razoric]

I agree with what you're saying, but I don't see why MS or Sony would even bother with another console if the Wii sells 100 million.

Especially MS. They've lost, what, 8 billion dollars on XB/360 now? Why would they continue? Their only possible goals in this who thing were to get Windows on your TV, or to stop Sony getting 'their Windows' (ie Home entertainment/computer hub) on your TV. If they fail miserable at this after 10 years of trying, do you really think they'll keep losing money 'for the love of games'?

And Sony's in a similar situation. The PS1 was an unexpected hit. Panasonic, NEC etc had already tried and failed in the market, Sony just got a lucky break from having their Nintendo experience and having an ok machine with the right tech (CD and decent 3D) at the right time. they played that hand brilliantly, and Nintendo and Sega played badly, so they won, and Sony's strategy moved behind the system

But Sony have failed in markets they owned before. Portable audio is the obvious example, and while they keep trying with a bunch of different products, they've become irrelevant.

----------------------------------
If Nintendo dominates this gen (still an if, mind you), then I'd expect MS to bow out, and Sony to still fail to get it, and follow up with an even worse bomb.

good lord... where do you even begin with bullshit like this? :lol

 

[justchris]

I agree with what you're saying, but I don't see why MS or Sony would even bother with another console if the Wii sells 100 million.

The same reason Nintendo & MS went for another go even though PS2 sold 100 million? There is just a lot of money to be made in video games. So far, Microsoft has only lost about $4.6 billion on the Xbox brand, but a lot of that was due to a bad design on the Xbox. They stand a good chance of making an actual profit this time around, even if they only sell another 25 million consoles. And they'll take what they learned from this time around, and make an even greater profit next time, whether they increase their market share or not. Remember, Nintendo steadily lost market share for 3 generations, while still maintaining a profit, and Microsoft has plenty of other businesses to shore up the Entertainment division.

The only reason Microsoft would drop out at this point is if they sell fewer 360s than they did Xboxen, or if either their Office or OS products (the big cash cows) start to get in trouble.

Sony is a different monster. For a time, the Games division was holding up the rest of the company. The rest of the company is back in the black now (mostly) and they're using it to shore up the Gaming division. They haven't totally destroyed the Playstation brand yet, and hopefully they won't completely destroy it before the next generation comes around (although sometimes I think they're trying really, really hard to do so), so they are in a decent position to continue into the next round fighting.

And while I agree with you that they had a lot of 'right place/right time' going with the PS1, come the next generation, if they don't step up their game, then they're finished. I figure they've got to at least try. The only way I could see them dropping out is if the PS3 completely flops, and they end up losing money overall. If they never even break even on the PS3 (and who knows how long that will take them), then I could see them bowing out. If they at least manage to break even, there's no incentive for them to bow out when they still have a fighting chance.

More importantly, video games are a multibillion dollar market. No one is insane enough to let Nintendo just have it, especially if Nintendo manages to do what they're aiming for and expand the market. A bigger market means a bigger pie to fight over, and corporations love pie (errrr...money). The smart thing for both of them, should Nintendo hit 100 million Wii sold, is to reconfigure their strategy towards making a profit in the market, rather than dominating it.

Look at the numbers. Worldwide, they're already starting to show that there just might be room for 3 players. All 3 of those players can make a profit as long as they control their spending and don't overreach (or oversaturate) the market.

 

[jjasper]

I agree with what you're saying, but I don't see why MS or Sony would even bother with another console if the Wii sells 100 million.

Especially MS. They've lost, what, 8 billion dollars on XB/360 now? Why would they continue? Given the continual losses, the only possible goals they ever had in this 'video game' were to get Windows on your TV, or to stop Sony getting their 'windows' (ie entertainment computer hub) on your TV. If they fail miserable at this after 10 years of trying, do you really think they'll keep losing money 'for the love of games'?

And Sony's in a similar situation. The PS1 was an unexpected hit. Panasonic, NEC etc had already tried and failed in the market, Sony just got a lucky break from having their Nintendo experience and having an ok machine with the right tech (CD and decent 3D) at the right time. they played that hand brilliantly, and Nintendo and Sega played badly, so they won, and Sony's strategy moved behind the system

But Sony have failed in markets they owned before. Portable audio is the obvious example, and while they keep trying with a bunch of different products, they've become irrelevant.

----------------------------------
If Nintendo dominates this gen (still an if, mind you), then I'd expect MS to bow out, and Sony to still fail to get it, and follow up with an even worse bomb.

You do understand that this is more than just about videogames for Sony and MS, I don't expect for them to pull out anytime soon. MS wants to expand their business beyond what it is now and Sony wants Blu ray to catch on for the cash cow it would create for them if it became the next DVD.

 

[puck1337]

What are this week's big releases? Sorry, I don't have time to scan this shitstorm of a thread, as I'm about to go back to the hospital to see my wife and our new baby.

 

[D.Lo]

good lord... where do you even begin with bullshit like this? :lol

These xbots are so mature!

Now, before I go on, just keep in mind I am not saying Nintendo will win and sell 100 million consoles. I am describing what I think would happen IF that happened.

The same reason Nintendo & MS went for another go even though PS2 sold 100 million?

What, because one made money the whole time, had no other business to fall back on, and had a great new idea this time around? And the other was still fighting a market leading rival in the 'computer TV' battle?

There is just a lot of money to be made in video games. So far, Microsoft has only lost about $4.6 billion on the Xbox brand, but a lot of that was due to a bad design on the Xbox. They stand a good chance of making an actual profit this time around, even if they only sell another 25 million consoles.

Based on what? Their earnings report today STILL showed a loss of 286 million for the quarter on the Xbox division, the same as last year. I'm pretty sure it's a much, much bigger loss then 4.6 billion, last I heard 7 billion, and that was a while ago (unless you've got proof?). Despite all claims, MS have made no major strides toward profitability. And even if they somehow turn it around, there's still a black hole that needs to be made back before a net profit is seen. How long will that take? 30 years?

And they'll take what they learned from this time around, and make an even greater profit next time, whether they increase their market share or not. Remember, Nintendo steadily lost market share for 3 generations, while still maintaining a profit, and Microsoft has plenty of other businesses to shore up the Entertainment division.

But why? Why would they keep pouring money into something that has lost money for 10 years and is still losing money (if Wii sells 100 million, remember). If Sony has been taken out, half their goal is accomplished anyway.

The only reason Microsoft would drop out at this point is if they sell fewer 360s than they did Xboxen, or if either their Office or OS products (the big cash cows) start to get in trouble.

If the Wii sells 100 million, I'd expect the 360 to have sold less then or about the same as the original, which was the premise of this hypothetical.

The only way I could see them [Sony] dropping out is if the PS3 completely flops, and they end up losing money overall. If they never even break even on the PS3 (and who knows how long that will take them), then I could see them bowing out. If they at least manage to break even, there's no incentive for them to bow out when they still have a fighting chance.

Once again, if the Wii sells 100 million, I'd expect the PS3 to have lost money. That's what's so bizarre about it, Sony kicked MS's ass last gen, yet this gen they're trying to 'out Xbox' the Xbox (ie overly expensive box, 'powerful', financial losses).

And as I said, I'd expect Sony to try again if they fail, but I'd also expect it to be an even bigger failure, because that's what seems to happen to Sony when they lose a market.

More importantly, video games are a multibillion dollar market. No one is insane enough to let Nintendo just have it, especially if Nintendo manages to do what they're aiming for and expand the market. A bigger market means a bigger pie to fight over, and corporations love pie (errrr...money). The smart thing for both of them, should Nintendo hit 100 million Wii sold, is to reconfigure their strategy towards making a profit in the market, rather than dominating it.

True, but in that situation I'd think another company would be best positioned to take on Nintendo. MS would pull out for the reasons stated above (ie nothing in it for them anymore, and no strategy to make any money in the business).

And Sony would look kind of pathetic if they release a Wii clone in three years, don't you think?

Look at the numbers. Worldwide, they're already starting to show that there just might be room for 3 players. All 3 of those players can make a profit as long as they control their spending and don't overreach (or oversaturate) the market.

What numbers? Last gen there was a winner and two niches, and one nichle lost 4 billion+. Nintendo does fine as a niche because they create their own software, and have fans to buy it, and make a tidy profit. MS and Sony don't have anything to offer as a niche, as both their strategies only make money if they dominate.

 

[Farmboy]

Now that PSP/PS3 are underperforming I've noticed people have been trying to find ways to downplay the success Sony found with PS2, as if it was a fluke and as if everyone else handed it to them. But Sony won because they marketed the thing insanely well, from the get go. And Nintendo and Microsoft didn't, from the get go. Whether that started on the same day in 2001 would have made no difference to PS2's destruction of those systems.

I think you're right about Sony doing more things right than just launching early. But I think the early launch was such a major factor that it's impossible to say how things would have developed had MS and Nintendo been there day-and-date. It's not that weird that this belief has gained ground now that the PS3 is underperforming, as the PS2's victory over the Xbox could also be chalked up to brandname recognition, while the 360's current position cannot.

IMHO, the 360's headstart is the factor as to why it (again, IMHO) will beat the PS3 in the US. Even if Sony triples sales of the 360 on a monthly basis from February onward, it'll take the better part of a year for the PS3 to catch up installed-base wise. Third parties, therefore, simply cannot afford to ignore the 360 in the coming months, which will lead to less exclusive software for Sony (and perhaps more for MS) as well as the 360 being the lead platform for the development of multiplatform games, which in turn will lead to consumers having less reasons to pick the pricier PS3 over the 360. Then there's the case of developers having a firmer grip on the hardware -- consumers can see that Gears of War puts Sony's titles to shame, for the time being.

Those are obvious points, I know, but that kind of upward spiral has everything to do with launching early -- so even though Sony's many other failures (and MS' many great moves) doubtless contribute to the PS3's current anemic performance, the headstart is of major influence. As it was last-gen, regardless of MS and Nintendo's many other failures and Sony's many great moves. The parallels are too strong to ignore. Obviously, a headstart didn't help, say, the Dreamcast, so my point certainly isn't that "headstart = assured victory", but if utilized well, it's an enormous boon.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Much more data from neoplay, so I guess its this week Famitsu data. Hopefully first day sales appear soon ><

DS
Wario - 90.000
Seikaiju no Meikyuu - 30.000
Pokemon Diamond/Pearl - 50.000 (4.620.000)
New Super Mario Bros - 30.000 (4.020.000)
Brain Training 2 - 30.000 (3.920.000)
Kirby - 17.000 (840.000)
Common Sense Training - 30.000 (1.100.000)
Animal Crossing - 30.000 (3.800.000)
Mario Kart DS - 19.000 (1.890.000)
Ryuusei no Rockman - 19.000 (320.000)
Brain Training - 14.000 (3.080.000)
English Training - 17.000 (1.600.000)

Wii
WiiSports - 63.000 (850.000)
Wii Play - 50.000 (740.000)
Wario - 16.000 (290.000)
Excite Truck - 20.000

PSP
Metal Gear Solid PO - 20.000 (290.000)
Tales of the World RM - 12.000 (190.000)
Monster Hunter (Best!) - 15.000 (210.000)

PS2
.hack//GU Vol3 - 120.000
Shining Force EXA - 80.000
Dragon Shadow Spell - 45.000
Meitantei Evangelion - 7.000

360
Gears of War - 34.000

Hard
DSL - 130.000
Wii - 80.000
PSP - 40.000
PS3 - 25.000
PS2 - 18.000
360 - 7.000

 

[gamergirly]

I agree with what you're saying, but I don't see why MS or Sony would even bother with another console if the Wii sells 100 million.

Especially MS. They've lost, what, 8 billion dollars on XB/360 now? Why would they continue? Given the continual losses, the only possible goals they ever had in this 'video game' were to get Windows on your TV, or to stop Sony getting their 'windows' (ie entertainment computer hub) on your TV. If they fail miserable at this after 10 years of trying, do you really think they'll keep losing money 'for the love of games'?

And Sony's in a similar situation. The PS1 was an unexpected hit. Panasonic, NEC etc had already tried and failed in the market, Sony just got a lucky break from having their Nintendo experience and having an ok machine with the right tech (CD and decent 3D) at the right time. they played that hand brilliantly, and Nintendo and Sega played badly, so they won, and Sony's strategy moved behind the system

But Sony have failed in markets they owned before. Portable audio is the obvious example, and while they keep trying with a bunch of different products, they've become irrelevant.

----------------------------------
If Nintendo dominates this gen (still an if, mind you), then I'd expect MS to bow out, and Sony to still fail to get it, and follow up with an even worse bomb.

Lossing massive amounts of money is not an obstacle for Microsoft, just for shareholders.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

I don't know about this....Microsoft sunk Billions into MSN before it became profitable as well.

At worst I think we'll see a refocus of the market, but I don't see a full withdrawal. Too many variables to account for (jobs, stock prices, mindshare, the admittance of defeat)

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

More numbres from 2ch...from MC chart!

11&#12288;DS&#12288;New Super Mario Brothers&#12288;27000&#12288;4030000&#12288;98
15&#12288;DS&#12288;Tea Dog's Room DS 2&#12288;19000&#12288;19000&#12288;49
16&#12288;DS&#12288;Mario Kart DS&#12288;19000&#12288;2016000&#12288;98
19&#12288;DS&#12288;Kanji Brain Test 2M&#12288;16000&#12288;262000 89
22&#12288;DS&#12288;IQ Supply&#12288;15000&#12288;103000&#12288;89
26&#12288;Wii&#12288;The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess&#12288;14000&#12288;356000&#12288;85
35&#12288;DS&#12288;DS Yama Method Math Drills&#12288;9000&#12288;112000&#12288;89
36&#12288;DS&#12288;Heisei Education Committee DS&#12288;8800&#12288;87000&#12288;90
40&#12288;Wii&#12288;Dragon Ball Z: Budokai Tenkaichi 2&#12288;8000&#12288;86000&#12288;64
43&#12288;DS&#12288;Final Fantasy III&#12288;6500&#12288;970000&#12288;89
46&#12288;DS&#12288;Mysterious Dungeon: Fuurai no Shiren DS&#12288;5100&#12288;152000&#12288;83
48&#12288;PSP&#12288;World Soccer Winning Eleven 10: Ubiquitous Evolution&#12288;5100&#12288;98000&#12288;65
68&#12288;Wii&#12288;Elebits&#12288;3500&#12288;38000&#12288;75
84&#12288;PS3&#12288;Armored Core 4&#12288;2500&#12288;69000&#12288;74
90&#12288;DS&#12288;&#9734;?&#12288;2300&#12288;95000&#12288;94
92&#12288;Wii&#12288;BREAD?&#12288;2200&#12288;46000&#12288;66
94&#12288;DS&#12288;ATSU?&#12288;2200&#12288;42000&#12288;83

Zelda, Armored Core 4, WE10...I hope you like it

 

[justchris]

Based on what? Their earnings report today STILL showed a loss of 260 million for the quarter on the Xbox division. I'm pretty sure it's a much, much bigger loss then 4.6 billion, last I heard 7 billion, and that was a while ago (unless you've got proof?). Despite all claims, MS have made no major strides toward profitability. And even if they somehow turn it around, there's still a black hole that needs to be made back before a net profit is seen. How long will that take? 30 years?

The most recent numbers I had were 4 billion in early 2006. If you have more recent numbers I might revise my opinion. Certainly they lost 260 million last quarter, but a lot of that was from the Zune, which didn't exist the previous quarter. So that leaves us with 2 possibilities, either the 360 is still losing as much money as it was previously and the Zune lost them little, if any money; or the Zune lost a great deal of money, and the 360 lost a great deal of money, but not as much as it has been so far.

But why? Why would they keep pouring money into something that has lost money for 10 years and is still losing money (if Wii sells 100 million, remember). If Sony has been taken out, half their goal is accomplished anyway.

If the Wii sells 100 million, I'd expect the 360 to have sold less then or about the same as the original, which was the premise of this hypothetical.

Assuming no decrease in total market size from the previous generation, if the Wii sells 100 million, that still leaves 45 million units to split between Sony and Microsoft, minimum.

The major factor here is that the 360 is much better designed than the Xbox. There simply was no way for the Xbox to ever make money, because there was no way for Microsoft to ever reduce the cost of the Xbox, yet they still had to reduce the price to stay competitive. Microsoft learned from this mistake with the 360, and they built and licensed it in such a way that they can reduce the cost before reducing the price. So even if they sell exactly the same number of units of the 360 as they sold of the Xbox, there's a pretty good chance they will make a profit on the 360 as a whole. That will just leave them to make up for all the losses from the original Xbox, which an Xbox 720 might be able to do, since they'll have even more experience in the console market, and be able to design an even better machine.

Now, considering population increases in various regions, and the fact that Microsoft is already pushing into regions that normally don't see much in the arena of console gaming, and Microsoft stands a very good chance of selling at least as many 360s as Xboxen. Nintendo selling 100 million Wiis doesn't necessarily change that.

Once again, if the Wii sells 100 million, I'd expect the PS3 to have lost money. That's what's so bizarre about it, Sony kicked MS's ass last gen, yet this gen they're trying to 'out Xbox' the Xbox (ie overly expensive box, 'powerful', financial losses).

And as I said, I'd expect Sony to try again if they fail, but I'd also expect it to be an even bigger failure, because that's what seems to happen to Sony when they lose a market.

Well, it's hard to say. I don't know how much debt the PS3 is putting Sony into, although it's obviously significant. Let's say they're reduced to the smallest part of the pie, 20 million units of hardware sold, and most of their big games are 3rd party, which generate less profit than 1st party games. It's possible that that might still be just enough for Sony to turn a profit, then again, it might not be. There's really no way to know without having all of Sony's financials right in front of you, and even then you can't be entirely sure, since we don't know how fast they'll be able to cost reduce the PS3.

As to whether or not the PS4 will be an even bigger failure or not, I can't say. I'll be honest, I don't have much faith in Sony hardware, never have, but that doesn't mean the company is doomed to repeat it's past mistakes. There's always the possibility they'll learn their lesson sometime. Either way, the point remains, they probably won't give in graciously, and short of losing Xbox levels of money, I don't expect them to drop out of the race completely.

True, but in that situation I'd think another company would be best positioned to take on Nintendo. MS would pull out for the reasons stated above (ie nothing in it for them anymore, and no strategy to make any money in the business).

And Sony would look kind of pathetic if they release a Wii clone in three years, don't you think?

Depends on whether or not they can offer something that's an improvement on the Wii. If they can offer a better product, they'll look smart enough to capitalize on the new market direction.

What numbers? Last gen there was a winner and two niches, and one nichle lost 4 billion+. Nintendo does fine as a niche because they create their own software, and have fans to buy it, and make a tidy profit. MS and Sony don't have anything to offer as a niche, as both their strategies only make money if they dominate.

Numbers which are already more even than last gen. In Japan it's pretty much between Nintendo & Sony, but worldwide it's entirely possible it could end a 3 way tie. Even if it doesn't, there's still a good chance that all 3 companies will be able to make a profit, or at least break even. If everyone makes a profit, there's no reason for them not to try for a bigger market share next round. Saying Microsoft and Sony only make money if they dominate implies that it is impossible for them to reach parity, which is making a lot more assumptions than I am saying they could still be profitable at some point.

 

[farnham]

More numbres from 2ch...from MC chart!

11&#12288;DS&#12288;New Super Mario Brothers&#12288;27000&#12288;4030000&#12288;98
15&#12288;DS&#12288;Tea Dog's Room DS 2&#12288;19000&#12288;19000&#12288;49
16&#12288;DS&#12288;Mario Kart DS&#12288;19000&#12288;2016000&#12288;98
19&#12288;DS&#12288;Kanji Brain Test 2M&#12288;16000&#12288;262000 89
22&#12288;DS&#12288;IQ Supply&#12288;15000&#12288;103000&#12288;89
26&#12288;Wii&#12288;The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess&#12288;14000&#12288;356000&#12288;85
35&#12288;DS&#12288;DS Yama Method Math Drills&#12288;9000&#12288;112000&#12288;89
36&#12288;DS&#12288;Heisei Education Committee DS&#12288;8800&#12288;87000&#12288;90
40&#12288;Wii&#12288;Dragon Ball Z: Budokai Tenkaichi 2&#12288;8000&#12288;86000&#12288;64
43&#12288;DS&#12288;Final Fantasy III&#12288;6500&#12288;970000&#12288;89
46&#12288;DS&#12288;Mysterious Dungeon: Fuurai no Shiren DS&#12288;5100&#12288;152000&#12288;83
48&#12288;PSP&#12288;World Soccer Winning Eleven 10: Ubiquitous Evolution&#12288;5100&#12288;98000&#12288;65
68&#12288;Wii&#12288;Elebits&#12288;3500&#12288;38000&#12288;75
84&#12288;PS3&#12288;Armored Core 4&#12288;2500&#12288;69000&#12288;74
90&#12288;DS&#12288;&#9734;?&#12288;2300&#12288;95000&#12288;94
92&#12288;Wii&#12288;BREAD?&#12288;2200&#12288;46000&#12288;66
94&#12288;DS&#12288;ATSU?&#12288;2200&#12288;42000&#12288;83

Zelda, Armored Core 4, WE10...I hope you like it

Zelda,,,, oh the tragedy.... well i hope it continues to sell well..