MasterMFauli
Banned
AniHawk said:
Someday, i hope i can write such thing. Until then, i have to lol about your things, as I would get banned for it :lol
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Media Create Sales Jan 15 - 21
- Thread starter Cheesemeister
- Start date
Someday, i hope i can write such thing. Until then, i have to lol about your things, as I would get banned for it :lol
JoshuaJSlone
Member
To add some fuel to the fire, here is a chart with the recent PS3 and Wii launches, but also with the GCN launch aligned with PS3 and the PS2 launch aligned with Wii. Note that the old numbers are Famitsu and the new Media Create. I tried a chart where the new numbers had both Famitsu and Media Create versions for both the apples-to-apples advantage and the extra week of data we have for MC, but they were so close anyway that it was more clutter than it was worth.
For those asking for direct launch comparisons, GCN launch Famitsu vs Wii launch MC, and the non-cumulative weeklies. Then PS2 launch Famitsu vs PS3 launch MC, and again the weekly values. All arbitrarily going out 26 weeks from launch.
If Wii stopped selling and PS3 continued at its current rate, it would catch up to Wii on September 17, 2007.
For those asking for direct launch comparisons, GCN launch Famitsu vs Wii launch MC, and the non-cumulative weeklies. Then PS2 launch Famitsu vs PS3 launch MC, and again the weekly values. All arbitrarily going out 26 weeks from launch.
If Wii stopped selling and PS3 continued at its current rate, it would catch up to Wii on September 17, 2007.
That's how things would turn out if PS2 continued selling 20K every week while DS sold 128K each week. It's the grandson of the "when will PSP catch up to DS" bit from 2 years back.... oh damn, I get it now, I put PSP instead of PS2. Old comparison habits die hard?AniHawk said:
That's doofy. If we're just playing imaginary and pushing up the GCN and Xbox launches 1-2 years while leaving all early sales the same, PS2 starts off in a minority position due to supply issues. Eventually it would be a majority, but for the entirety of its life would have a lower percentage of the market than in our reality. Of course that's going to affect third party support, which would in turn affect the sales of non-PS2 consoles in a positive way.Amir0x said:
I think it's more like Nintendo figured they could get away with not doing true new tech due to their unique controller and the large price advantage. No way can they get away again with just stretching out Flipper and Gekko a few more megahertz in 4-6 years time. And as long as they're going for newly designed tech at all, there's no reason a Wii-priced console shouldn't handily outdo X360 at that time.Mrbob said:
Considering how cheap they are now, throwing in the futuristic equivalent of Broadway and Hollywood into the Wii successor should cost peanuts.justchris said:
Grampa Simpson
Banned
:lol :lol :lolaloof said:
What's with all the new joke characters lately?
Galactic Fork
A little fluff between the ears never did any harm...
I think I'll just start using "son¥".
JoshuaJSlone said:
Hey, if you want to pretend it was the year headstart that made PS2 so massively, insanely successful - that's your prerogative.
Whether GCN or Xbox launched the same day or a year later, the scenario remains precisely the same. PS2 would have annihilated them.
marvelharvey
Member
My weekly report from Osaka's DenDen Town says...
Gears came back into stock this morning and it's already sold out at the larger stores but Big Tiger still has a few copies left on the shelf... oh and for only the 2nd time in my life, I saw a Wii for sale (30000yen, used). Also, I noticed that the Logicool PS3 steering wheel is covered in Immersion logos and 'force feedback' stuff, surely that's not right?! Is it?
Gears came back into stock this morning and it's already sold out at the larger stores but Big Tiger still has a few copies left on the shelf... oh and for only the 2nd time in my life, I saw a Wii for sale (30000yen, used). Also, I noticed that the Logicool PS3 steering wheel is covered in Immersion logos and 'force feedback' stuff, surely that's not right?! Is it?
Eteric Rice
Member
bmf said:
People go on the internet for two reasons. Teh funny, and porn.
Both mixed together is good, too.
D.Lo said:
All I said the scenario would have been precisely the same. PS2 would have won, massively. By 70,000,000 or more, all the same.
Now that PSP/PS3 are underperforming I've noticed people have been trying to find ways to downplay the success Sony found with PS2, as if it was a fluke and as if everyone else handed it to them. But Sony won because they marketed the thing insanely well, from the get go. And Nintendo and Microsoft didn't, from the get go. Whether that started on the same day in 2001 would have made no difference to PS2's destruction of those systems.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Amir0x said:
Why? Because of the success of the PS1?
Grampa Simpson
Banned
I have to disagree here man. I think that Nintendo thinks that it's in their best interest to stay out of that race. If they can keep limitations in place, it help keep budgets from ballooning, and they probably figure that that's better for them in the long run as it helps keep projects profitable. Wii HD will be 1.5ghz tops. It will include 50% more ram, and it will have a better GPU (fill rates to render at HD res) and it will have a scaler chip similar to the Ana from the 360. There will be some other things, like a bigger chunk of flash, but it will be built to support HD resolutions, not propel game budgets into orbit.JoshuaJSlone said:
if if ifAmir0x said:
if Xbox and GCn would have launched in the same day the price would have been different
if xbox and GCN would have launched in the same day the software library would have been different and the third parties would have decided differently then they actually did..
there are too many factors
Eteric Rice
Member
Amir0x said:
Why?...
DefectiveReject
Banned
The money made from DS and Wii, Nintendo could take many more risks in the next generation and get the GC running on a handheld!
Also an improved 360 with 1:1 motion control and better Nunchuk-Wiimote integration would be fine by me and quite cheap too in 5yrs
Also an improved 360 with 1:1 motion control and better Nunchuk-Wiimote integration would be fine by me and quite cheap too in 5yrs
Amir0x said:
I ****ing hope you're wrong as ****. $150 is too much for a handheld system.
God, I tire of the "FACTORING INFLATION" bullshit. $300 in 2000 isn't THAT MUCH MORE than $300 in 2006 (it's what? A $40 difference max?). Gamers shouldn't be shrugging their shoulders at all these price increases and basically say, "well, it'd happen eventually." They didn't with the 3DO and they didn't do it with the Saturn.
AniHawk said:
$50 is a lot of money. If you factor in the new burgeoning technology not included with previous gens, such as motion sensing or something, and additional functionality a net increase of $50 over inflation is not bad at all. If you always aim at the lowest common denominator with gaming, we'll go no where ever. So you have to have a good middle ground. PS3 is not that good middle ground. Neither is Wii.
Amir0x said:
I really really oppose the idea of higher pricepoints becoming standard, and I don't think people should readily accept them.
I thought the idea of $50 handheld games was ****ing insane. And it looks like most people agreed with me, as the only upcoming $50 handheld game I can spot is Oblivion for PSP.
AniHawk said:
Well, I don't know where you got the first point from... I never said that. The "it's good for what you're getting" may be true regardless of if you want to pay the price or not, that's a separate discussion honestly. PS3 is a good price for the stuff you're getting, objectively... but no one will pay it, 'cause most people just want it to play videogames. And for that, there's a limit on what most people are willing to pay.
All I am saying is you can't have a phobia over a price increase, provided it's reasonable. That's what happens as time goes on, prices always go up. That's the economy, and that's what happens when you try to add functionality to give people more reasons to adopt your product as competition heats up.
AniHawk said:
Heh. Well, I can understand why the market rejected it... handhelds are and always have been a market geared mostly toward kids. And parents like cheaper things for kids. As an adult, though, my perspective is: if you're gonna give me a console experience, I have no problem paying for a console experience. I appreciate not having to lower my standards, and I'll pay a little premium for it.
D. Lo said:
*claps*?
Pureauthor
Member
Amir0x said:
I think an issue here might be one of skewed perspective. For example, Nintendo consoles have always been at the USD 200 pricepoint, and the one time it deviated from that, anyone could tell you it was more or less completely unecessary and just plain greedy on their part.
Inflation should drive prices up, but technology is also constantly decreasing in cost. So it's sort of a balancing act.
Amir0x said:
Yeah, my brain's been functioning a little off ever since I started this semester. Also, I've taken about three sleeping pills, so.
To go from $150 (let's face it: $130) to $200-$250 as a STANDARD in FIVE-SIX years?! What?? There's no way that's gonna happen. It took 15 years before Nintendo moved above $100 for their handheld systems (and let's face it, $100 for a GBC and GBA/SP was pushing it [on the consumer end]).
Well, my perspective as an adult and a lifelong fan of handheld gaming is: if you're gonna give me a handheld experience, you shouldn't have to dumb down your console games for me to enjoy it. It's not like I bought my DS to play King Kong or Rayman. Handhelds offer a completely different experience from consoles that hold just as much merit with the right developers at the helm.
AniHawk said:
I meant in general, and was gearing my comments toward the situation with next-generation (and using it to say why PS3 is a disaster because it abandoned even those limitations). PSP is in a unique position of offering so much functionality over the competition, and I liked it and thought it was easily worth the money thanks to that and other reasons such as offering console-calibre experiences. But if you cut that functionality out, you won't need to have it priced so dramatically. DS was $150, so I could definitely see a $199 DS 2 if they add palm pilot-esque functionality.
Kurosaki Ichigo
Member
Eh, guys, I wonder how many units do you expect Virtua Fighter 5 and Gundam Musou to sell...
VF5...even if it hits 100k (which I doubt), it won't lead sales for the system. Gundam Musou, the first gundam was bad and sold 100k, Musou games are in decline in the PS2, I don't see going anywhere higher than 300k, and that would be nearly as many units as the 3 PS3 best sellers sold since launch. Musou will probably push some PS3 so it gets near 1m, not more. Wii otoh, when Gundam Musou strikes, will have passed 2m easily.
Its not going to work.
VF5...even if it hits 100k (which I doubt), it won't lead sales for the system. Gundam Musou, the first gundam was bad and sold 100k, Musou games are in decline in the PS2, I don't see going anywhere higher than 300k, and that would be nearly as many units as the 3 PS3 best sellers sold since launch. Musou will probably push some PS3 so it gets near 1m, not more. Wii otoh, when Gundam Musou strikes, will have passed 2m easily.
Its not going to work.
Yeah, my brain's been functioning a little off ever since I started this semester. Also, I've taken about three sleeping pills, so.Amir0x said:
I think that the next DS will probably have rumble built in (as the option for it is starting to pop up in a few more games, I've noticed... Hotel Dusk being the most recent), better graphics (DC/early PS2), and a removed GBA slot, replaced by a sort of DS Store where you can download oldschool GB/C/A games to your system. Of course, if that's some time in, say, 2010-2011, then I doubt it'd be so much as $200 at retail.
Pureauthor
Member
AniHawk said:
I'd pay USD 200 for that. Just sayin'.
Pureauthor said:
I think DS2 or GBA will still come in at $150 2010 or 2011 dollars. And it can still have all the features Ani described.
As I'm not well versed on the matter of chip design and capabilities, the DS2/GBAnext's performance will be dependent on what the new generation of ARM chips will be capable of at a mass market price, as DS and GBA (Virtual Portable) compatability will almost dictate that they use ARM processor(s) as part of the chipset. I do wonder if ATI might provide a solution for them this time around though.
Also it will probably feature the advanced touchscreen tech found on the iPhone.
given the recent trends in the japanese market, i think the reason ps3 and 360 are struggling so much is because they're essentially going after a market which isn't there. one which has declined in a massive way over the last few years.
the ideology of what a game should be, as defined by sony, isn't what most people want, and this has become their biggest problem. ultimately, ps3's (and 360's) entire strategy is wrong for japan.
i think price is an issue but i don't think it's the biggest factor. i mean look at ds vs psp, there's virtually nothing in it price wise, yet ds is a full generation behind graphically and is outselling psp by a huge margin.
graphics not being important isn't anything new. back in the nes era the amiga and st were a full generation ahead in power, yet the nes demolished them in sales. the lynx and gt could run circles around the gb, yet gb outsold them easily.
imo the graphics race is over for consoles and i wouldn't be surprised if the next gen machines are less capable than 360 and ps3, because dev costs are already way too high. if you want cutting edge graphics the pc will be your only hope.
the other thing i've noticed is over the last few weeks there seems to be a sense of glee coming from some 360 fans because the ps3 isn't doing so well in japan. if ps3 loses japan it won't be to 360, it's going to be to wii, with major development support shifting accordingly, and there's little chance of a wii game being ported to 360, the assets alone would make it pointless, whereas there's a good chance of a ps3 game coming to the console. imo, if ps3 loses japan it's bad news for 360.
the ideology of what a game should be, as defined by sony, isn't what most people want, and this has become their biggest problem. ultimately, ps3's (and 360's) entire strategy is wrong for japan.
i think price is an issue but i don't think it's the biggest factor. i mean look at ds vs psp, there's virtually nothing in it price wise, yet ds is a full generation behind graphically and is outselling psp by a huge margin.
graphics not being important isn't anything new. back in the nes era the amiga and st were a full generation ahead in power, yet the nes demolished them in sales. the lynx and gt could run circles around the gb, yet gb outsold them easily.
imo the graphics race is over for consoles and i wouldn't be surprised if the next gen machines are less capable than 360 and ps3, because dev costs are already way too high. if you want cutting edge graphics the pc will be your only hope.
the other thing i've noticed is over the last few weeks there seems to be a sense of glee coming from some 360 fans because the ps3 isn't doing so well in japan. if ps3 loses japan it won't be to 360, it's going to be to wii, with major development support shifting accordingly, and there's little chance of a wii game being ported to 360, the assets alone would make it pointless, whereas there's a good chance of a ps3 game coming to the console. imo, if ps3 loses japan it's bad news for 360.
Pureauthor
Member
ziran said:
I'll be first in line to tell you I care nothing for graphics, and I will also be first in line to tell you that this would be a stupid idea. In 5 years time, the tech needed to make a PS3 would be far less costly.
Wii60 FTW.
AniHawk said:
multi-touch. So we can finally flip those two switches and keep the cursor correctly placed in Hotel Dusk.
I've thought about this...
I mean, on one hand there's the fact that developers could be missing out on a huge userbase for the Wii (if it becomes a big force in the industry). On the other hand, I think developers are going to try protecting their investments. I'm looking at DMC4 right now and wondering if that's going to stay on the PS3 forever. The 360 may not be doing so hot in Japan or Europe (though its sales are picking up in Europe, apparently), but software does REALLY well in North America, and especially for two of Capcom's games so far.
I think what 360 fans are really hoping for is the PS3 to "fail" so that third parties will have no choice but to move their more expensive projects to the 360 as well and hope the combined userbase will make them a profit.
Pureauthor
Member
AniHawk said:
Or at the very least, make 'em multiplatform.
Pureauthor
Member
Yeah, I missed the 'as well', so I thought you meant abandon the PS3 projects entirely.
the issue isn't the price of the technology it's the cost of developing games.Pureauthor said:
you're right, but i was thinking more about future games and development which is starting now, because of wii's success in japan.AniHawk said:
i think the majority of current third party exclusives in developent for ps3 will be coming to 360, its user base is just too big to ignore. the high cost of developing games is going to make developers spread their risk.
Pureauthor
Member
ziran said:
The cost of developing games will also go down too, you know. That's what technology does. Costs are constantly going down.
Sony can still moneyhat their exclusives and get more news ones. They are not poor. Don't underestimate them.
And they will DO EVERYTHING to win. So far, MS has played the implicitly help Nintendo to dethrone Sony angle but nothing stops Sony from doing the same against MS, well unless they continue blundering like they have.
And my 8-ball predicts they will stop March 2007.
And they will DO EVERYTHING to win. So far, MS has played the implicitly help Nintendo to dethrone Sony angle but nothing stops Sony from doing the same against MS, well unless they continue blundering like they have.
And my 8-ball predicts they will stop March 2007.
Kurosaki Ichigo
Member
It won't change anything if they can't get those supposed killer-app OUT soon.Deku said:
Actually they needed them at launch, and they still don't have a single one, and they doesn't seem to have one in any time soon. Wii has 2 right now, and Dragon Quest very soon.
i think the development process will be refined, but i disagree the costs will be reduced enough to encourage more and more power in console hardware, especially if games like wii sports continue to sell so well.Pureauthor said:
just look at the sales of dbz wii, it'll end up near 100k, for a quick ps2 port. ps1 level visuals are selling amazingly well on ds. the bottom line is, developers are in it to make as much money as they can, and if consumers end up choosing wii over ps3 and 360, thereby negating the need to invest in such high budgets, they'll take it.
imo there's little point in hardware manufacturers creating such graphically powerful consoles if most consumers don't care about it and developers don't need to use it.
Kurosaki Ichigo
Member
Btw, I hate you all ; ; no one gave me Shining Force Neo numbers to compare to EXA.
it's debut is here:Kurosaki Ichigo said:
http://www.dsrevolution.com/article.php?articleid=132
edit - it didn't appear in the top 100 for 2005 so it's total must be lower than 127k:
http://www.the-magicbox.com/Chart-BestSell2005.shtml
ziran said:
I've heard other people say this, and I think they're wrong. Think about this, some of the most popular games in the world are not the most graphically proficient. The Wii is focused, more than anything, on fun games, regardless of their graphical fidelity.
It would be fairly easy (and cheap) to port a game directly from the Wii to the 360/PS3, and just bump the graphics up to HD resolution, add some AA, and not even bother adding polys or redrawing textures. The hardest part will be shoehorning the controls into a scheme that works with a standard controller (or going back to your original scheme since most games have been shoehorned into a Wii control scheme). As long as the game is fun, no one is going to care it's not the prettiest game on the system.
I expect, if Wii comes out on top by a large margin, developers will do this generation what they did last, which is develop to the specification of the weakest machine, then make minor tweaks to get it on the other two.
I also don't think Nintendo will go for only a small leap in power next generation. They did it this generation because they were already taking a risk by reinventing the interface. You can take two huge risks at once, but the cost would have been prohibitive, and would definitely have killed them. One big risk gives you a chance of doom, but also a chance of reward. Two big risks pretty much guarantees doom.
If their interface risk pans out for this generation, they can refine it easily next generation without too much risk, and take a bigger risk on power, without pushing themselves outside a mass market price.
Nintendo will do everything they can to differentiate themselves from the competition, and if pushing more polygons is the only way to do it, that's how they will do it. But really, it depends on whether or not they can come up with a new way to differentiate themselves between now and then.
BenjaminBirdie
Banned
justchris said:
Really?