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[AdventureRacing]

jesus guys wtf.

Whats all this MH3 will do 500k first week nonsense? When did we go from thinking it would do 700 to 800k lifetime at by the END of the gen on a slow slow off the charts burn for the last 200k to 500 freaking thousand weekend 1.

The freaking hype train is absurd around these parts. Its amazing how if you take a few weeks away from these threads and come back everything has balooned into absurdity. If you cant tell, I think these estimates are ridiculous, and that 250k to 300k would be an amazing start considering the bundle and the black Wii. A bit below those numbers wouldn't even shock me.

I think your post will look foolish in the near future.

 

[Chris1964]

Famitsu Sales: 07/20 - 07/26

01. [NDS] Dragon Quest IX: Defenders of the Starry Sky (Square Enix) - 271,000 / 3,218,000
02. [NDS] Friend Collection (Nintendo) - 71,000 / 405,000
03. [WII] Wii Sports Resort (Nintendo) - 67,000 / 735,000
04. [NDS] Penguin no Mondai: Tenkuu no Senshi (Konami) - 56,000 / NEW
05. [NDS] Okaeri! Chibi-Robo! Happy Richie Oosouji (Nintendo) - 40,000 / NEW
06. [PS3] Katamari Damacy Tribute (Namco Bandai) - 29,000 / NEW
07. [NDS] Katekyoo Hitman Reborn! DS Flame Rumble X - Mirai Chou-Bakuhatsu!! (Takara Tomy) - 24,000 / NEW
08. [PS3] Pro Baseball Spirits 6 (Konami) - 21,000 / 95,000
09. [PS2] Pro Baseball Spirits 6 (Konami) - 20,000 / 70,000
10. [PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom Unite (PSP the Best) (Capcom) - 18,000 / 849,000
11. [WII] Dragon Ball: Revenge of King Picollo (Namco Bandai) - 11,000 / NEW
12. [PSP] My Summer Vacation 4: Youth Detective Group in Seto - Me and the Secret Map (SCE) - 11,000 / 102,000
13. [WII] Wii Fit (Nintendo) - 9,100 / 3,471,000
14. [PSP] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva (Sega) - 7,700 / 136,000
15. [NDS] Moyashimon DS (Takara Tomy)- 7,500 / NEW
16. [NDS] Pokemon Platinum (Pokemon Co.) - 7,300 / 2,456,000
17. [WII] Punch-Out!! (Nintendo) - 5,600 / NEW
18. [NDS] Rhythm Heaven: Tap into the Rhythm (Nintendo) - 5,400 / 1,770,000
19. [NDS] Kingdom Hearts: 358/2 Days (Square Enix) - 5,000 / 496,000
20. [PS2] Rosario to Vampire Capu 2: Koi to Yume no Rhapsodia (Compile Heart) - 4,900 / NEW
21. [WII] Mario Kart Wii (Nintendo) - 4,800 / 2,289,000
22. [NDS] Animal Crossing: Wild World (Nintendo) - 4,500 / 5,038,000
23. [NDS] Mario Kart DS (Nintendo) - 4,400 / 3,473,000
24. [PS3] Toro to Morimori (SCE) - 4,400 / NEW
25. [NDS] Paul Sloane and Des MacHale's Mysterious Story (Level 5) - 4,200 / 165,000
26.
27. [NDS] Koukou Yakyuu Dou DS (Spike) - 4,100 / NEW
28. [NDS] Pokemon Diamond / Pearl (Pokemon Co.) - 4,000 / 5,694,000
29. [NDS] Mario & Luigi: Bowser's Inside Story (Nintendo) - 4,000 / 663,000
30. [NDS] Professor Layton and the Last Time Travel (Level 5) - 3,800 / 788,000
__. [PSP] Blazing Souls (Idea Factory) - 3,700 / NEW
__. [PSP] PW: Project Witch (GungHo Works) - 3,500 / NEW
__. [PSP] Narisokonai Eiyuutan: Taiyou to Tsuki no Monogatari (Irem) - 3,500 / NEW
__. [PS3] Call of Huarez: Bound in Blood (Ubisoft) - 3,000 / NEW
__. [PS3] 50 Cent: Blood on the Sand (Bethesda Softworks)- 3,000 / NEW
__. [PSP] Ranshima Monogatari Rare Land Story: Shoujo no Yakujou (Arc System Works) - 1600 / NEW
__. [360] Call of Huarez: Bound in Blood (Ubisoft) - 1,400 / NEW
__. [360] 50 Cent: Blood on the Sand (Bethesda Softworks)- 1,300 / NEW
__. [NDS] Cute Kitten DS 2 (MTO) -1,000 / NEW

DSi 81,000
PSP 30,000
WII 22,000
DSL 12,000
PS3 8,200
PS2 5,100
360 2,400

http://dubai.2ch.net/test/read.cgi/ghard/1248888757/779
http://dubai.2ch.net/test/read.cgi/ghard/1248888757/780

 

[AniHawk]

Wii's staying steady at 22kish. DS's boost has lasted longer than I thought it would.

 

[farnham]

The hype train is absurd?
Did you miss how absurdly massive is the marketing for this game? Did you miss the 5 different bundles for the game? Did you miss the news of the first shipment being of 1 million copies?

MH3 will do much more than 250k first week, even KH DS sold 300k in the first two days.

Your 800k LTD prediction is the absurd one. If they don't sell the first shipment in the first month (highly unlikely with how massive is everything MH related now) I doubt Capcom will be happy with the sales.

1. KH DS is on the DS not on the Wii
2. marketing campaigns can go wrong
3. MH3 is comming out august the 1st.. which means it only will have one day counted in its first sales week


but still we have the information that the pre order numbers more then justify the shipment

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

1. KH DS is on the DS not on the Wii
2. marketing campaigns can go wrong
3. MH3 is comming out august the 1st.. which means it only will have one day counted in its first sales week


but still we have the information that the pre order numbers more then justify the shipment

Two days, actually. Sales are tracked from Monday to Sunday.

 

[Spiegel]

1. KH DS is on the DS not on the Wii
2. marketing campaigns can go wrong
3. MH3 is comming out august the 1st.. which means it only will have one day counted in its first sales week


but still we have the information that the pre order numbers more then justify the shipment

1 KH is a spinoff on a much lesser selling franchise
2 If a marketing campaing of this size goes wrong you can bet Capcom will abandon the Wii
3 Two days (the same as KH DS)

 

[AniHawk]

1 KH is a spinoff on a much lesser selling franchise
2 If a marketing campaing of this size goes wrong you can bet Capcom will abandon the Wii
3 Two days (the same as KH DS)

Capcom never abandoned a system until the bitter, bitter end.

 

[Nirolak]

Capcom never abandoned a system until the bitter, bitter end.

They even made serious efforts on consoles that weren't doing so well like the GameCube, original Xbox, and the PSP.

It seems to be working fairly well for them so far.

 

[u_neek]

My Summer Vacation is doing pretty good. I t did get a lot of advertising in Japan when I was there a few weeks ago though. Now release it in the west, please!

 

[Spiegel]

Capcom never abandoned a system until the bitter, bitter end.

Capcom never made the huge promotional effort that is doing right now with MH3 and failed.

 

[AniHawk]

Capcom never made the huge promotional effort that is doing right now with MH3 and failed.

Well at least you're optimistic about MH3's chances.

 

[farnham]

They even made serious efforts on consoles that weren't doing so well like the GameCube, original Xbox, and the PSP.

It seems to be working fairly well for them so far.

wut

capcom did nothing serious on the xbox... maybe tekki and some ports.. but thats about it..

Well at least you're optimistic about MH3's chances.

Cranky. Very cranky.
Rather sarcastic to boot.
:lol :lol

 

[AniHawk]

They even made serious efforts on consoles that weren't doing so well like the GameCube, original Xbox, and the PSP.

It seems to be working fairly well for them so far.

Well that's what I meant. They were some of the last developers to stop making games for the Saturn, Dreamcast, and Gamecube. Capcom doesn't just up and leave.

 

[Spiegel]

Well at least you're optimistic about MH3's chances.

I'm very optimistic, the game will sell a million+ easily. It's farnham who thinks that MH3 can fail with this massive promotion.

They even made serious efforts on consoles that weren't doing so well like the GameCube, original Xbox, and the PSP.

It seems to be working fairly well for them so far.

Capcom supported the psp with niche 2,5D remakes and ports when everyone thought that the handheld was going to be the next big thing. That didn't happen so PSP became their MH porting machine.
Capcom signed a deal with Nintendo, when the games failed they stopped supporting the console

 

[Cosmonaut X]

Capcom never made the huge promotional effort that is doing right now with MH3 and failed.

Just as a point of discussion, I wouldn't be at all surprised if the massive promo campaign is at least partly supported by Nintendo. Bundles, new console colours and advertising blitzes are what I would expect them to provide as an incentive for Capcom to either bring the title to the Wii in the first place, or for a reasonable window of exclusivity.

It doesn't mean that Capcom (or Nintendo) are going to be any happier if the game falls flat on its face, but I think it's worth considering that the campaign is quite likely to have some substantial backing from Nintendo.

 

[Captain Smoker]

All-Time Top15 Publisher in Japan - Update (I've added 317 games since the last breakdown).



Total number of games: 6,324
Total number of units: 888,459,383
Average: 140,490


Number of games / Publisher / Units total / Average / Total market share / Growth of market share since last breakdown

427x Nintendo		282,986,919		662,733		31.85% (- 0.33%)
626x Konami		68,665,559		109,689		 7.73% (+ 0.03%)
98x  Square		52,820,246		538,982		 5.95% (- 0.16%)
310x Capcom		52,811,426		170,359		 5.94% (- 0.06%)
340x SCE		48,417,454		142,404		 5.45% (- 0.08%)
311x Bandai		38,753,579		124,610		 4.36% (- 0.04%)
363x Sega		37,353,778		102,903		 4.20% (+ 0.04%)
52x  Enix		35,671,346		685,987		 4.02% (- 0.05%)
129x Square Enix	35,151,563		272,493		 3.96% (+ 0.38%)
166x Namco		31,667,010		190,765		 3.56% (- 0.10%)
224x Bandai Namco	24,166,414		107,886		 2.72% (+ 0.10%)
209x Koei		19,211,852		91,923		 2.16% (+ 0.01%)
130x Hudson		18,481,639		142,167		 2.08% (-------)
133x Banpresto		17,797,619		133,817		 2.00% (- 0.04%)
84x  Atlus		6,578,023		78,310		 0.74% (+ 0.01%)

2722x Others		117,924,956		43,323		13.27% (+ 0.27%)

For Comparison the last update: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=15873536&postcount=84

 

[EDarkness]

jesus guys wtf.

Whats all this MH3 will do 500k first week nonsense? When did we go from thinking it would do 700 to 800k lifetime at by the END of the gen on a slow slow off the charts burn for the last 200k to 500 freaking thousand weekend 1.

The freaking hype train is absurd around these parts. Its amazing how if you take a few weeks away from these threads and come back everything has balooned into absurdity. If you cant tell, I think these estimates are ridiculous, and that 250k to 300k would be an amazing start considering the bundle and the black Wii. A bit below those numbers wouldn't even shock me.

The funny thing is I was talking to my students about games yesterday and being that they're all Monster Hunter fans I asked them if they're going to pick up Tri. They all knew about the game, but the general consensus was that they're not picking it up. I asked them why, and two of them said "the Wii isn't cool." I got a little giggle from that since they usually him and haw when we get into these conversations. I don't know whether or not the Wii version is going to be a big seller, but at least at my school the outlook isn't too good. I did tell them that maybe after they play the game they'll change their mind, but that went on deaf ears. All that said, I really hope this game breaks the mold for the Wii. I think it needs a bit of good news these days.

 

[slaughterking]

I'm starting to get the feeling that your enviroment and the people you come in contact with just aren't very Nintendo-friendly and representative at all.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

I'm starting to get the feeling that your enviroment and the people you come in contact with just aren't very Nintendo-friendly and representative at all.

The Wii really doesn't seem popular at all with the teenage boys in Japan. It's not hard to see why... when you were a teenager, would you have thought something your mother has fun with was cool?

I think Monster Hunter Tri's audience is going to be the young salarymen.

 

[EDarkness]

I'm starting to get the feeling that your enviroment and the people you come in contact with just aren't very Nintendo-friendly and representative at all.

They're high school/jr. high kids. I'd say pretty typical for that age group. I don't think it's a Nintendo thing. Most of the students have a DS and have been playing Dragon Quest 9. Many of them also have a Wii, but I doubt very many of them have used it recently.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

The Wii really doesn't seem popular at all with the teenage boys in Japan. It's not hard to see why... when you were a teenager, would you have thought something your mother has fun with was cool?

I think Monster Hunter Tri's audience is going to be the young salarymen.

Mm. What I'm interested in is whether the gamers who would be interested in this particular game, but not in the Wii in general, will actually shift or whether they'll simply be stubborn and abandon the series (or at least until the next installment hits a console they do favour).

 

[swerve]

I'd be willing to bet it's teenage boys everywhere - nothing special about Japan. Wii here is the console for ageing game veterans and the under 14s.

That said, of my 25-35 group of friends, at least 3 aside from me will be buying it. Purely using previous sales relationships from my friends to sales data (entirely unreliable but fun), that suggests a first weekend of 250k, the following week to do similar, and then for each week to be somewhere around 70k - 100k for a few weeks after that.

It's not going need a re-stock unless word of mouth is truly exceptional.

 

[slaughterking]

They're high school/jr. high kids. I'd say pretty typical for that age group. I don't think it's a Nintendo thing. Most of the students have a DS and have been playing Dragon Quest 9.

Yeah, that's true and everything. I think I actually confused you with some other guy, that occasionally posted rather conservative anecdotical evidence when it came to Nintendo releases.

 

[EDarkness]

Yeah, that's true and everything. I think I actually confused you with some other guy, that occasionally posted rather conservative anecdotical evidence when it came to Nintendo releases.

Heh, heh. Might have been me. I sometimes post things I hear or find around the area I live in or when I go to Akihabara.

 

[jay]

DQIX is a fucking great game and jay is a twat.

http://i157.photobucket.com/albums/t67/SegataSan/corblimey.jpg

When I woke up this morning I wondered if you'd replied and thought it'd actually be funny if you didn't say anything but only posted the pic again. Job mostly well done.

On an unrelated topic, one more to do with video games, the Famitsu review of DQ9 is out? Time to investigate.

Edit: Wait, I did hear about this and wrote it off as Famitsu being Famitsu. Still looking forward to the game, though.

 

[schuelma]

jesus guys wtf.

Whats all this MH3 will do 500k first week nonsense? When did we go from thinking it would do 700 to 800k lifetime at by the END of the gen on a slow slow off the charts burn for the last 200k to 500 freaking thousand weekend 1.

The freaking hype train is absurd around these parts. Its amazing how if you take a few weeks away from these threads and come back everything has balooned into absurdity. If you cant tell, I think these estimates are ridiculous, and that 250k to 300k would be an amazing start considering the bundle and the black Wii. A bit below those numbers wouldn't even shock me.

I think when making a sales prediction two good places to start are the publishers expectations and initial shipment.

We have two reports that the initial shipment is at or above a million units. (Edit- Capcom has confirmed the shipment amount. See the MH Tri thread for more.)

We have Capcom's financial report saying they expect 2 million units sold by next April. Given that it won't be out in the U.S until the very end of the fiscal year, one can conclude that Capcom expects it to sell over a million units.


So we're left with the publisher thinking it will do over a million, and we have the retailers thinking it will do over a million.

To me, that suggests the most logical outcome is at the very least a 50% sell through in week one. To do 250K as you suggest it would only do 25% of its initial shipment in its first week. Certainly that type of miscalculation has happened before, but that seems pretty unlikely.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

When I woke up this morning I wondered if you'd replied and thought it'd actually be funny if you didn't say anything but only posted the pic again. Job mostly well done.

On an unrelated topic, one more to do with video games, the Famitsu review of DQ9 is out? Time to investigate.

Edit: Wait, I did hear about this and wrote it off as Famitsu being Famitsu. Still looking forward to the game, though.

No hard feelings, I just like the word 'twat'. And Yangus. Ah hell, one more time for the road.

 

[test_account]

Feels good man, feels good

It could be. There's also the case of Monster Hunter G Wii only selling as much as the PS2 Monster Hunter G. While a re-release (w/ demo of highly anticipated game) selling as much as the original is a good thing, the fact it only sold as much indicates there's not a huge audience on Wii desperate for Monster Hunter. That could be because they're being satiated with the PSP versions, right now, and most of them will come on-board with Monster Hunter 3. However, it might also mean that most of them aren't on the Wii, right now, and may not come over, at all.

Ye, i think that this is a good point. Judging by the Monster Hunter G sales for the Wii (which was indeed pretty good for a re-release just so that is said), it might seem that not exactly too many people (compared to how much the Monster Hunter games has sold on the PSP) wanted to play the Monster Hunter 3 demo. But i guess it can also be that many Montster Hunter fans didnt want to spends likes 3990 yen mainly to play the MH3 demo when it wasnt really that long (relatively speaking) until the full game comes out.

The statement I quoted was "Every game from japan should only be on Handheld from now on. Srly, no one gives a fuck about consoles anymore." If what Wii is doing right now doesn't qualify as people giving a fuck about it, people don't give a fuck about PSP either. The only system that is notably ahead of everything else is the DS.

I dont think that he litterally ment that no one gives a fuck about the consoles anymore (i am not saying that you think he ment it litterally just so that is said), but that he said it like that more as an exaggeration that the handhelds (the DS and the PSP) seems to be more popular than the consoles (the PS3, the Wii and the Xbox 360) these days in Japan. The consoles hardware sales in general in Japan havnt really been selling that good lately, and the handhelds are what is selling the most.

I thought that he talked about the sales on a more general basis (withing the last couple of months or so), but if he ment only the sales for this particular week (or the previous week, since now we are on a new sales week), then the DS is pretty much the only system that is notably ahead of everything else as you say, that is true.

When i asked "Why not on the PSP as well? ", this question was mostly aimed towards this statement: "Every game from japan should only be on Handheld from now on". Eventhough that the DS is the most popular handheld, i still think that the PSP is a handheld that has a good sales potential, both when it comes to the hardware and to the software sales. That is why i wanted to ask why you didnt mention the PSP as well when it comes to handhelds But if you only ment sales regarding this week's (or the previous week's) sales, then i understand what you mean

Wii's staying steady at 22kish. DS's boost has lasted longer than I thought it would.

The Wii hardware sales were at 19k last week (Famitsu numbers), so the sales have gone a bit up this week

EDIT: I added some text.

 

[Tenbatsu]

The funny thing is I was talking to my students about games yesterday and being that they're all Monster Hunter fans I asked them if they're going to pick up Tri. They all knew about the game, but the general consensus was that they're not picking it up. I asked them why, and two of them said "the Wii isn't cool." I got a little giggle from that since they usually him and haw when we get into these conversations. I don't know whether or not the Wii version is going to be a big seller, but at least at my school the outlook isn't too good. I did tell them that maybe after they play the game they'll change their mind, but that went on deaf ears. All that said, I really hope this game breaks the mold for the Wii. I think it needs a bit of good news these days.

That's pretty sad

 

[Jokeropia]

i still think that the PSP is a handheld that has a good sales potential, both when it comes to the hardware and to the software sales.

If PSP has good sales potential, both when it comes to the hardware and to the software sales, so does the Wii. That's my point. There was a time when both DS and PSP were clearly above all home consoles, but that is no longer the case.

 

[BishopLamont]

Judging from continued DS sales, and the decent software drops, I think DQIX will have much bigger legs then previous installments. Regarding MH3 sales, I think 1M is the minimum, since this is what Capcom is expecting too. Anything below that would be seen as a failure but not necessarily a bomba, 500k and under should be considered a bomba.

 

[thestopsign]

Judging from continued DS sales, I think DQIX will have much bigger legs then previous installments. Regarding MH3 sales, I think 1M is the minimum, since this is what Capcom is expecting too. Anything below that would be seen as a failure but not necessarily a bomba, 500k and under should be considered a bomba.

First week, or lifetime?

 

[BishopLamont]

First week, or lifetime?

1M LTD. Since Capcom is expecting 1M within the first month or so, I think 1M should be the bare minimum. 2M+ would be a huge success.

 

[Chris1964]

Still no Media Create thread? Come on guys, someone start it. This will be a legendary thread.

Media Create Sales: 07/20 - 07/26

01. [NDS] Dragon Quest IX: Defenders of the Starry Sky (Square Enix) - 270,000 / 3,202,000
02. [NDS] Friend Collection (Nintendo) - 74,000 / 428,000
03. [WII] Wii Sports Resort (Nintendo) - 74,000 / 763,000
04. [NDS] Penguin no Mondai: Tenkuu no Senshi (Konami) - 43,000 / NEW
05. [NDS] Okaeri! Chibi-Robo! Happy Richie Oosouji (Nintendo) - 35,000 / NEW
06. [PS3] Katamari Damacy Tribute (Namco Bandai) - 28,000 / NEW
07. [NDS] Katekyoo Hitman Reborn! DS Flame Rumble X - Mirai Chou-Bakuhatsu!! (Takara Tomy) - 28,000 / NEW
08. [PS2] Pro Baseball Spirits 6 (Konami) - 22,000 / 72,000
08. [PS3] Pro Baseball Spirits 6 (Konami) - 21,000 / 95,000
10. [PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom Unite (PSP the Best) (Capcom) - 18,000 / 818,000
11. [PSP] My Summer Vacation 4: Youth Detective Group in Seto - Me and the Secret Map (SCE)
12. [PSP] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva (Sega)
13. [WII] Dragon Ball: Revenge of King Picollo (Namco Bandai) / NEW
14. [NDS] Moyashimon DS (Takara Tomy) / NEW
15. [NDS] Pokemon Platinum (Pokemon Co.)
16. [WII] Wii Fit (Nintendo)
17. [WII] Punch-Out!! (Nintendo) / NEW
18. [WII] Mario Kart Wii (Nintendo)
19. [PS3] Toro to Morimori (SCE) / NEW
20. [NDS] Kingdom Hearts: 358/2 Days (Square Enix)
21. [NDS] Paul Sloane and Des MacHale's Mysterious Story (Level 5)
22. [WII] Taiko Drum Master Wii (Namco Bandai)
23. [PS2] Rosario to Vampire Capu 2: Koi to Yume no Rhapsodia (Compile Heart) / NEW
24. [NDS] Mario Kart DS (Nintendo)
25. [NDS] Mario & Luigi: Bowser's Inside Story (Nintendo)
26. [PSP] Ys I & II: Chronicles (Falcom)
27. [NDS] New Super Mario Bros. (Nintendo)
28. [PSP] Narisokonai Eiyuutan: Taiyou to Tsuki no Monogatari (Irem) / NEW
29. [NDS] Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Explorers of Sky (Pokemon Co.)
30. [PSP] PW: Project Witch (GungHo Works) / NEW

 

[idlewild_]

We have Capcom's financial report saying they expect 2 million units sold by next April. Given that it won't be out in the U.S until the very end of the fiscal year, one can conclude that Capcom expects it to sell over a million units.

Bionic Commando...not saying the circumstances are even remotely the same, but it does cast a little doubt on Capcom's sales forcasts.

 

[BishopLamont]

02. [NDS] Friend Collection (Nintendo) - 74,000 / 428,000
03. [WII] Wii Sports Resort (Nintendo) - 74,000 / 763,000

What now HK-47? :lol

Oh and I think Wii hardware will be slightly down again this week since overall software sales are down a bit. 19k would be my guess.

Edit: Actually last week's MC spot #10 was only 9k, this week it's 18k. So maybe I'll be wrong and Wii's number will be a bit up instead.

 

[schuelma]

Bionic Commando...not saying the circumstances are even remotely the same, but it does cast a little doubt on Capcom's sales forcasts.

Ok, without getting into the many many differences between the two titles, I would submit that overall Capcom's expectations have usually been very good and often times conservative. I know they were exceeded on the Wii Resident Evil games and IIRC they were exceeded with RE5 and SFIV as well.

 

[schuelma]

Here is the official release from Capcom confirming an initial shipment exceeding 1 million:

http://ir.capcom.co.jp/english/news/html/e090730d.html

(taken from cvx's thread)

 

[HK-47]

How much did the first Penguin game sell?

 

[thestopsign]

How much did the first Penguin game sell?

53. [NDS] Penguin no Mondai: Saikyou Penguin Densetsu! (Konami) 125,552 (280,539)

This is from the Top 100 for the first half of 2009.

 

[BishopLamont]

Someone said earlier that Konami shipped basically the first Penguin game's LTD for the first week, so they expected a bigger debut. Now it all depends on the legs and how much of a boost the game will get during Christmas, since that was when the first game released. Legs will be the most important thing though since it's quite a long way til Christmas.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

So I was playing around some more with the new game line features. Here's the Top 10 for 2009 so far; a recent addition makes it particularly fun.

When did we go from thinking it would do 700 to 800k lifetime at by the END of the gen on a slow slow off the charts burn for the last 200k to 500 freaking thousand weekend 1.

There's always been a wide variety of predictions, but I'd say expectations shot up around late April for some reason.

 

[swerve]

To me, that suggests the most logical outcome is at the very least a 50% sell through in week one. To do 250K as you suggest it would only do 25% of its initial shipment in its first week. Certainly that type of miscalculation has happened before, but that seems pretty unlikely.

Unlikely unless your marketing guys and your sales reps don't understand that the main selling point of the previous uber-popular versions was the communal local multiplayer. A point which is present, but somewhat secondary, in the new version.

 

[farnham]

The funny thing is I was talking to my students about games yesterday and being that they're all Monster Hunter fans I asked them if they're going to pick up Tri. They all knew about the game, but the general consensus was that they're not picking it up. I asked them why, and two of them said "the Wii isn't cool." I got a little giggle from that since they usually him and haw when we get into these conversations. I don't know whether or not the Wii version is going to be a big seller, but at least at my school the outlook isn't too good. I did tell them that maybe after they play the game they'll change their mind, but that went on deaf ears. All that said, I really hope this game breaks the mold for the Wii. I think it needs a bit of good news these days.

well i dont think that the wii is uncool in japan per se.. if it was that uncool it wouldnt have oblitarated the competition sales wise like it did.. its probably more of a clique thing


and even if thats true.. i think MH3tri and the whole black wii bundle thing is aiming at people that deam the wii to be uncool

 

[donny2112]

I'm personally expecting around 1.2mil for Monster Hunter Tri.

Even best-case scenario, I can't see it doing over 1.5m, myself.

From my database, Wii has sold 3.8m pieces of software all year long. While it's possible for Monster Hunter 3 to completely ignore the entire prior 7 months performance and come out completely different than every other game released on Wii this year (admittedly nothing special there, outside of Wii Sports Resort), that combined with past Monster Hunter console performance (PS2 and Wii) makes a huge opening (e.g. > 750K) seem unlikely to me. Capcom is seriously doing their best to change that (Way to advertise, Capcom!), though.

Still no Media Create thread? Come on guys, somone start it.

Thanks for that. As for me, my plans changed, so I should be here for next week's thread.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

From my database, Wii has sold 3.8m pieces of software all year long.

A lack of big games so far in the year doesn't mean the big games can't still make a splash. Prior to Dragon Quest IX, DS had only sold about twice as much software as Wii for the year.

 

[test_account]

If PSP has good sales potential, both when it comes to the hardware and to the software sales, so does the Wii. That's my point. There was a time when both DS and PSP were clearly above all home consoles, but that is no longer the case.

Ye, i agree that the Wii has a good sales potential as well, i also think that the PS3 has hardware and software potential, at least in my opinion (this is a serious statment, if Sony dropped the price of the PS3 to a more competitive price to the Wii and to the Xbox 360, i think the PS3 sales could increase on a weekly basis, but that is just a guess from my side though. But it has been discussed several of times in general before what will happend if the PS3 gets a price drop, so i dont really want to discuss too much about this subject right now, since it might also take years (or if ever) before the PS3 price gets down to a competitive price to the Wii and to the Xbox 360. I would rather wait to discuss more about this subject when the PS3 at least gets a price drop (even if the price still inst that competitive to the Wii and to the Xbox 360 price). But i just wanted to mention this when we talked a bit about sales potentials ).

Ye, the DS and the PSP were definitly selling more than the consoles last year compared to this year, but the handhelds are still above the consoles. The PSP has sold about twice as much hardware as the Wii so far this year. And going by the Famitsu Top 30 software numbers, i think that the PSP has sold more software compared to the Wii. (If someone wonder why i only mention the Wii here, it is because that the Wii is the highest selling console in Japan this generation. The PSP has sold more than the PS3 and the Xbox 360 too just so that is said). But if you only ment the previous week's hardware numbers (and maybe software numbers as well? Or maybe Wii software sold more due to Wii Sports Resort), then the PSP and the Wii are indeed relatively close

But i was mostly thinking about the handheld only. If someone says that every game in Japan should be for the handheld only, i think that both the DS and the PSP can be included, not just the DS, at least in my opinion Eventhough that the DS has sold much more than the PSP and that the DS is more popular than the PSP, i still think that the PSP is a handheld that can make it good as well when it comes to handheld gaming systems That is why i asked "Why not on the PSP as well? " when you only mentioned the DS when Dra-Q said that every game in Japan should be on handhelds

EDIT: I added some text.

It more than tripled Capcom's expectations for the game. You're selling it way short with "pretty good" and "good for a port".

How much did Capcom expect Resident Evil 4 for the Wii in Japan? Or was the expectations about the worldwide numbers?

I am sorry again for the late reply to this quote :\ But i just remembered that i forgot to ask about this earlier in the thread.

 

[Cipherr]

Ill definitely eat my words if it manages to put up those numbers, Im not an anti Wii guy, and wouldn't mind seeing it have a game do that well. But I just cant envision it.


But on the other hand I didn't see that official release saying the shipment is over 1million. That is freaking crazy and suggests the retailers have some sort of faith for the games performance. And if they are going to order those copies, Id like to think they are going to push it as well. So yeah I didn't collect as much info as I should have before shrugging it off as another 200k opener. But I still don't see anywhere near 6 to 800k on its opening report. Its only going to track a few days.

I really really think that NSMB Wii and MH3 Wii are going to solidify that handheld franchises != console franchises, and that one can be insanely popular and not cross over to the other the same way (I think they both will fall well well short of the handheld versions).

We shall see though.

 

[Jokeropia]

Ye, i agree that the Wii has a good sales potential as well, i also think that the PS3 has hardware and software potential

PS3 however is notably behind the Wii right now, whereas Wii is not notably behind the PSP.

I'm talking about the present here. (Since the statement in question came in response to this thread and not in the beginning of the year.) Say, roughly the last five or six weeks as well as the immediate future.

But i was mostly thinking about the handheld only. If someone says that every game in Japan should be for the handheld only, i think that both the DS and the PSP can be included, not just the DS, at least in my opinion Eventhough that the DS has sold much more than the PSP and that the DS is more popular than the PSP, i still think that the PSP is a handheld that can make it good as well when it comes to handheld gaming systems That is why i asked "Why not on the PSP as well? " when you only mentioned the DS when Dra-Q said that every game in Japan should be on handhelds

Let's say there's a bar for "interest level" that makes a system relevant. Dra-Q's statement insinuated that this bar was such that only handhelds qualify. However, based on the current sales climate, if the bar is set so that both handhelds qualify, Wii qualifies as well.

How much did Capcom expect Resident Evil 4 for the Wii in Japan? Or was the expectations about the worldwide numbers?

The discussion referred to worldwide numbers and Capcom expected 450k. The game has sold 1600k.

 

[test_account]

PS3 however is notably behind the Wii right now, whereas Wii is not notably behind the PSP.

I'm talking about the present here. (Since the statement in question came in response to this thread and not in the beginning of the year.) Say, roughly the last five or six weeks as well as the immediate future.

Ye, i thought that you maybe ment the present. Then i know what you mean

Indeed, but to be a bit fair (or what i shall say), Dra-Q didnt say that he only referred to this week's of sales eventhough he wrote it in this thread though. I can say for example "Wow, Wii Fit sale's is amazing!" in this thread and i could be referring to Wii Fit's LTD and not just this week's (or the 5-6 previous weeks) Wii Fit sales. Dra-Q's post was also a standalone post (he didnt quote anyone when he wrote that statement), or was his comment a reply to a discussion that was going on before he wrote his post?

But i wrote in one of my previous posts that it depends if he ment only this particular week's sales or sales in general (within the last few months or so) If he only ment this particular week's of sales, then the Wii and the PSP hardware (and maybe software sales as well?), are pretty close indeed as you say, but if he ment within the last months or so, then the PSP is more ahead. I don think that he clearified if he ment sales for this particular week or that he ment sales for the last months or so.

Let's say there's a bar for "interest level" that makes a system relevant. Dra-Q's statement insinuated that this bar was such that only handhelds qualify. However, based on the current sales climate, if the bar is set so that both handhelds qualify, Wii qualifies as well.

Ye, that is true, but as i wrote above here, Dra-Q didnt say that he only talked about this week's sales or more about the sales in general within the last months or so But ye, the Wii and the PSP sales at this current time is relatively close at this time, that is true

The discussion referred to worldwide numbers and Capcom expected 450k. The game has sold 1600k.

Ok, thanks for the info

EDIT: I fixed some typos.