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[Segata Sanshiro]

 

[donny2112]

Nah MH3 only need to do 600K to be massively successful since no PS2 version have done more than that and that's with a huge user base difference.

I wouldn't call 600K a massive success, but that is a reasonable expectation (at least before the Black Wii announcement) based on the series history on consoles. Good to see you're taking the past console sales into account.

Success in the handheld realms does not translate to consoles all the time. I mean look at Pokemon.

Very true. They are not the same market, and therefore, you can't expect the same results from both. Even Animal Crossing, which got a boost from the DS version, still only came up to ~25% of the DS game's total, so far.

Setting such high standards would be pigeon holing people that predict MH3 only needing to beat the PS2 version as Wii damage controllers.

Ohhhh. You're just trying to be sarcastic. Why is it that your sarcastic post here shows more critical thinking skills than your previous post on MH3 sales? :lol

Man I suck at sarcasm, everyone missed the sarcasm of my post.

Spoiler

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=16825417&postcount=267

Good reason to repeat the conclusion from that post, then.

You are trying to pigeon-hole anyone not predicting > 1 million as Wii pre-damage control and ignorant of the Japanese market. For that, you are so full of crap.

:lol

 

[test_account]

By that logic, everything should be on the DS.

Why not on the PSP as well?

(Late reply from me here, sorry :\)

 

[Vinci]

You are smelly.

You say that as if it's something new.

 

[Chris1964]

Sinobi

DSi 81,000
DSL 12,000
PSP 30,000

Maybe DS has a chance to hit the 30 million mark this year. The upcoming release schedule is impressive and there is always the possibility that there will be some surprise title from Nintendo for the holiday season.

PSP on the other hand will be way down this year since I don't think PSP Go will do anything for the system and there isn't any big seller that can rise the sales. Surely the continuous release of smaller titles helps it stay at a respectable level but If the release of Monster Hunter 3 affects Monster Hunter Freedom Unite sales in a negative way things can go even worse (hardware wise). I really can't understand what Sony does since it's the only system that has kept them relevant in Japan the last years.

 

[Kilrogg]

You say that as if it's something new.

By the way, I don't like what you did to your Scribblenauts-like avatar (or whoever did it). Too much fading. Scribblenauts characters only have simplistic shadows and areas of flat colour. Yours is too elaborate.

Still love you though <3.

 

[Vinci]

By the way, I don't like what you did to your Scribblenauts-like avatar (or whoever did it). Too much fading. Scribblenauts characters only have simplistic shadows and areas of flat colour. Yours is too elaborate.

I can't be too picky. Dude was nice enough to make it for me. I like it.

Still love you though <3.

Aww.

 

[jay]

http://i157.photobucket.com/albums/t67/SegataSan/corblimey.jpg

Will you be posting this image every half hour or have you gotten it out of your system?

 

[ccbfan]

Ohhhh. You're just trying to be sarcastic. Why is it that your sarcastic post here shows more critical thinking skills than your previous post on MH3 sales? :lol



Good reason to repeat the conclusion from that post, then.

So predicting MH3 should reach 1 mil + has less critical thinking than predicting MH3 only needs to reach the PS2 numbers to be successful?

You pretty much just insulted 90+ percent of the predictions so far then.

There's a reason no one (except you of course) agreed with your opinions when I posted them. One even called it retarded.

 

[schuelma]

A Capcom USA community manager also reporting an initial shipment over 1 million units:

http://www.capcom-unity.com/snow_in...monster_hunter_tri_ships_over_1_million_units

"This is the first third party Wii game to have an initial shipment of over 1 million units in Japan. As a series, Monster Hunter has now surpassed 10 million units shipped."

 

[Linkup]

So 400k first two days? Probably more considering the game's fans.

 

[schuelma]

So 400k first two days? Probably more considering the game's fans.

Yeah I think it will do more than that.

 

[test_account]

People who are knowledgeable of Japanese sales know that PS2 MH2 (BEST) did not see some kind of miraculous sales spike due to the MHP series popularity, and it came out after the MHP series success.

I am not that into the Monster Hunter serie, but isnt MHP2 (PSP) and MH2 (PS2) pretty much the same game? If yes, could this be a reason why many people didnt see the need to buy the "BEST" release of Monster Hunter 2 for the PS2?

EDIT: By the way, i know that MH2 (BEST) didnt see some kind of miraculous sales spike as you said, but how did MH2 (BEST) sell compared to other "BEST" releases? I see on Garaph.info that it sold about 121k, isnt that pretty good for a "BEST" release (eventhough that it wasnt a huge spike in sales now that the Monster Hunter serie had become much more popular compared to when Monster Hunter 2 for the PS2 was released for the first time)?

EDIT2: Is there a "BEST" gaming group on Garaph.info (or on any other sites) by the way?

 

[Yoshichan]

[PS3] Toro & Friends (SCEJ) - 4k

;_;...

 

[test_account]

Seiken: Welcome back! Or at least i havnt seen that you have posted on NeoGAF for many months, but maybe i have missed your posts.

 

[Yoshichan]

Seiken: Welcome back! Or at least i havnt seen that you have posted on NeoGAF for many months, but maybe i have missed your posts.

Feels good man, feels good

 

[Jim Gazoline]

One million initial shipment sounds about right. I think they'll burn through that in good time.

Eh, they can burn through that in two weeks. MH3 has the potential to do 750k+ in two days, don't worry for them.


By the way, it will be fun to see Gears 2 chart with the Nintendo blockbusters in Japan next week.

 

[donny2112]

So saying anyone predicting < 1m is in Wii damage control and that they must not be knowledgeable of Japanese sales has less critical thinking than taking into account past console history and the difference between the console and handheld market?

Yes for the modified version. I don't think I've ever mentioned that 750K LTD for MH3 would be a success or failure. Simply, that is just what I expect based on past console sales (PS2 and Wii) and the Black Wii launching at the same time.

You pretty much just insulted 90+ percent of the predictions so far then.

I have differing predictions (that originate from much farther back) than most of the predictions now. That's not insulting the predictions/predictors, though.

There's a reason no one (except you of course) agreed with your opinions when I posted them.

I think that has more to do with you misrepresenting my position by saying that MH3 only had to surpass the PS2 games to be a success. Also, they pointed out that Pokemon isn't a good comparison, as the main series hasn't shifted from handhelds. In that case, it's worth pointing out Animal Crossing. Mario Kart is a point against that theory, though. At the least, it supports my point that there is no guarantee that handheld success will bring console success or vice-versa.

If yes, could this be a reason why many people didnt see the need to buy the "BEST" release of Monster Hunter 2 for the PS2?

It could be. There's also the case of Monster Hunter G Wii only selling as much as the PS2 Monster Hunter G. While a re-release (w/ demo of highly anticipated game) selling as much as the original is a good thing, the fact it only sold as much indicates there's not a huge audience on Wii desperate for Monster Hunter. That could be because they're being satiated with the PSP versions, right now, and most of them will come on-board with Monster Hunter 3. However, it might also mean that most of them aren't on the Wii, right now, and may not come over, at all.

 

[schuelma]

It could be. There's also the case of Monster Hunter G Wii only selling as much as the PS2 Monster Hunter G. While a re-release (w/ demo of highly anticipated game) selling as much as the original is a good thing, the fact it only sold as much indicates there's not a huge audience on Wii desperate for Monster Hunter. That could be because they're being satiated with the PSP versions, right now, and most of them will come on-board with Monster Hunter 3. However, it might also mean that most of them aren't on the Wii, right now, and may not come over, at all.

Ehh..I might buy that if no one knew when Tri was coming out- but it was already slotted for a Summer release. It's not like with the FF13 demo where it offered the first gameplay in a release that might not even be make it out in 2009.

 

[donny2112]

Ehh..I might buy that if it hadn't been known that Monster Hunter Tri was on its way this Summer. It's not like with the FF13 demo where it offered the first gameplay in a game that might not even be released in 2009.

For both, it's the first gameplay for the new iteration. I'm not convinced that a six-month wait for the main game made it easier to wait compared to a nine to twelve month wait, though. As for sales, we only really have first week sales of FF:ACC w/ FFXIII demo, but IIRC, even that's higher than WII MHG's current LTD. Another major difference is that FF was a mega series before this generation, and people knew they had to get a PS3 to play it. Therefore, a good portion of the FFXIII buying audience already had a PS3. MH is a new mega series this generation. It seems pretty clear that there's not already a huge MH base on Wii due to MHG's sales, and it's unclear how many will be willing to buy a new system to play the next iteration of the series.

As I said when this was first brought up 18 months ago, I'm not sure how much of the PS2 userbase is going to migrate over for the Wii version. That applies now for the PSP userbase, too, since it seems like they're not already on Wii just waiting for MH3 to be released.

 

[Suiko]

Does anybody know how Atelier Rorona sold?

Also why people still buy DQ9, isn't already clear that a game is bad?

 

[Rpgmonkey]

Also why people still buy DQ9, isn't already clear that a game is bad?

wat

 

[wrowa]

Does anybody know how Atelier Rorona sold?

66k according to Famitsu

Also why people still buy DQ9, isn't already clear that a game is bad?

wat

 

[GDGF]

Does anybody know how Atelier Rorona sold?

Also why people still buy DQ9, isn't already clear that a game is bad?

wat

 

[Suiko]

wat

wat

wat

Erhmmm NVM, I forgot that DQ can't be bad, my mistake =))

 

[Die Squirrel Die]

MH is a new mega series this generation. It seems pretty clear that there's not already a huge MH base on Wii due to MHG's sales, and it's unclear how many will be willing to buy a new system to play the next iteration of the series.

I'm still not convinced that MH3 is going to substantially increase sales from the previous console entry. As you say, MH has grown into a mega-series within this current generation, on a platform that's still very viable and will likely remain so for the forseeable future. Is there anybody who isn't convinced that MHP3 isn't going to be coming at some point? In which case it's optimistic to expect a large, mid-generation userbase shift.

 

[Yoshichan]

Erhmmm NVM, I forgot that DQ can't be bad, my mistake =))

Uh...

 

[jj984jj]

Erhmmm NVM, I forgot that DQ can't be bad, my mistake =))

Neither can any PS3 game, amirite? Atelier Rorona <3 <3 <3 <3 <3 <3 <3 <3

Spoiler

/sarcasm

 

[Suiko]

Neither can any PS3 game, amirite? Atelier Rorona <3 <3 <3 <3 <3 <3 <3 <3

Spoiler

/sarcasm

Can I ask which part of this statement is sarcasm? I hope not second

Also 66k is a bit too little, no? (tnx wrowa for answer BTW)

 

[schuelma]

I'm still not convinced that MH3 is going to substantially increase sales from the previous console entry. As you say, MH has grown into a mega-series within this current generation, on a platform that's still very viable and will likely remain so for the forseeable future. Is there anybody who isn't convinced that MHP3 isn't going to be coming at some point? In which case it's optimistic to expect a large, mid-generation userbase shift.

That last entry was what, over 2 years ago? Before the franchise exploded on the PSP?

I fully understand the argument, but I think sometimes you have to just look at reality and common sense- Capcom, who has been pretty conservative on its Wii estimates, is looking to sell well over a million units. Its been reported to have an initial shipment of 1 million. So we know Capcom and retailers are expecting it to do huge numbers.

I don't think its proper to consider it as merely the next console version of Monster Hunter following the PS2 games- IMO it has turned into something much much bigger since then.

 

[zero_suit]

Also why people still buy DQ9, isn't already clear that a game is bad?

Clear? Didn't it get a 40/40 from Famitsu? They can't be that bias.

 

[Suiko]

Clear? Didn't it get a 40/40 from Famitsu? They can't be that bias.

Nintendogs and Final Fantasy XII say hello :lol

 

[Yoshichan]

Nintendogs and Final Fantasy XII say hello :lol

Two games that well deserves 40

 

[Suiko]

Two games that well deserves 40

Oh really? when FF6, CT, FF7 and Suiko 2 don't?

 

[Yoshichan]

Oh really? when FF6, CT, FF7 and Suiko 2 don't?

You just told me your opinion of the best games ever, didn't you ?

Different reviewers, different times anyway. The games mentioned above could've probably gotten a 40 if it was to be released today (for the first time, that is). We would never know.

 

[wrowa]

Also 66k is a bit too little, no? (tnx wrowa for answer BTW)

Well, it's not as good as DQIX, so what're you expecting?

Spoiler

Rorona is the best-selling Atelier since Atelier Iris, which was released in '04

 

[Jokeropia]

Why not on the PSP as well?

(Late reply from me here, sorry :\)

The statement I quoted was "Every game from japan should only be on Handheld from now on. Srly, no one gives a fuck about consoles anymore." If what Wii is doing right now doesn't qualify as people giving a fuck about it, people don't give a fuck about PSP either. The only system that is notably ahead of everything else is the DS.

 

[Suiko]

Well, it's not as good as DQIX, so what're you expecting?

Spoiler

Rorona is the best-selling Atelier since Atelier Iris, which was released in '04

I kinda thought it would sell as icecream on a hot day, seeing as PS3 doesn't have too many RPGs. Well, life is unfair, there is no denying...

 

[HK-47]

Famitsu sucks. Dont ever claim Famitsu scores mean anything. I will kill you.

Also people are saying "wat," Suiko, because you arent back up your assertion that DQ IX is a bad game.

 

[apujanata]

That last entry was what, over 2 years ago? Before the franchise exploded on the PSP?

I fully understand the argument, but I think sometimes you have to just look at reality and common sense- Capcom, who has been pretty conservative on its Wii estimates, is looking to sell well over a million units. Its been reported to have an initial shipment of 1 million. So we know Capcom and retailers are expecting it to do huge numbers.

I don't think its proper to consider it as merely the next console version of Monster Hunter following the PS2 games- IMO it has turned into something much much bigger since then.

That 1 Million is more likely retailers expectation, NOT Capcom's expectation.

Animal Crossing's GC version and Wii version sales # are way below AC:TWW sales #. I can definitely see MH3 Wii to be much lower than MH2P PSP, like AC:TCF <<<< AC:TWW. Of course, it is possible that AC:TCF improvement over AC:TWW are much less than MH3 improvement over MH2P, but I wouldn't know about that since I didn't play MH games.

The way I see it, <500K LTD for MH3 is bomba, and getting >800K 1st week should be good #.

 

[schuelma]

That 1 Million is more likely retailers expectation, NOT Capcom's expectation.
.

Capcom has a 2 million worldwide expectation for this fiscal year which runs until next April. Given that Tri will be hitting N.A in March at the very earliest, I'd say its pretty much certain that Capcom is expecting 1 million plus from Japan alone.

 

[thestopsign]

I'm personally expecting around 1.2mil for Monster Hunter Tri. This is on the basis that it won't be quite as popular as the handheld version, but it will still see a nice boost in sales over the previous console editions due to increased brand awareness that has been created by the handheld versions. I normally agree with donny's predictions, but I do think he is being a bit conservative with his estimations. With the amount of advertising behind this and the reported initial shipment numbers; I'm having a hard time believing that it won't cross the million mark.

I can't wait for first day sales, because the could be anywhere from 250k to 700k. Should be an interesting week.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

DQIX is a fucking great game and jay is a twat.

 

[Cipherr]

Yeah I think it will do more than that.

jesus guys wtf.

Whats all this MH3 will do 500k first week nonsense? When did we go from thinking it would do 700 to 800k lifetime at by the END of the gen on a slow slow off the charts burn for the last 200k to 500 freaking thousand weekend 1.

The freaking hype train is absurd around these parts. Its amazing how if you take a few weeks away from these threads and come back everything has balooned into absurdity. If you cant tell, I think these estimates are ridiculous, and that 250k to 300k would be an amazing start considering the bundle and the black Wii. A bit below those numbers wouldn't even shock me.

 

[AniHawk]

I demand more Yangus.

 

[RyuKanSan]

will the sales from the black wii/mh tri combo be counted?

 

[thestopsign]

will the sales from the black wii/mh tri combo be counted?

Bundle sales are normally counted, but I think it depends on the bundle.

jesus guys wtf.

Whats all this MH3 will do 500k first week nonsense? When did we go from thinking it would do 700 to 800k lifetime at by the END of the gen on a slow slow off the charts burn for the last 200k to 500 freaking thousand weekend 1.

The freaking hype train is absurd around these parts. Its amazing how if you take a few weeks away from these threads and come back everything has balooned into absurdity. If you cant tell, I think these estimates are ridiculous, and that 250k to 300k would be an amazing start considering the bundle and the black Wii. A bit below those numbers wouldn't even shock me.

First week of Monster Hunter 2 for the PS2

01 PS2 Monster Hunter 2 - 362,173 / 362,173

I see nothing ridiculous about expecting moderate growth from the first week of MH2. In fact it would be completely ignorant to suggest that it would sell less than the PS2 installments of the franchise. We'll see on Monday, if they release sales early like the sometimes do with big games.

 

[justchris]

A Capcom USA community manager also reporting an initial shipment over 1 million units:

http://www.capcom-unity.com/snow_in...monster_hunter_tri_ships_over_1_million_units

"This is the first third party Wii game to have an initial shipment of over 1 million units in Japan. As a series, Monster Hunter has now surpassed 10 million units shipped."

Hmmm...if that's the case I'll definitely need to revise my prediction up. I wonder how many black Wii bundles there are going to be?

 

[Cygnus X-1]

Sinobi

DSi 81,000
DSL 12,000
PSP 30,000

01. [NDS] Dragon Quest IX: Defenders of the Starry Sky (Square Enix) 271,000 / 3,217,502
02. [NDS] Tomodachi Collection (Friend Collection) (Nintendo) 71,000 / 405,000
03. [WII] Wii Sports Resort (Nintendo) 67,000 / 735,000
04. [NDS] Penguin no Mondai: Tenkuu no Senshi (Konami) 56,000 / NEW
05. [NDS] Okaeri! Chibi-Robo! Happy Richie Oosouji (Nintendo) 40,000 / NEW
06. [PS3] Katamari Damacy Tribute (Namco Bandai) 29,000 / NEW
07. [NDS] Katekyoo Hitman Reborn! DS Flame Rumble X - Mirai Chou-Bakuhatsu!! (Takara Tommy) / NEW
08. [PS3] Pro Yakyuu Spirits 6 (Konami)
09. [PS2] Pro Yakyuu Spirits 6 (Konami)
10. [PSP] Monster Hunter Portable 2 G (BEST) (Capcom)

Dragon Ball Wii 10,000
Punch Out 6,000

DS still enjoying some quite high numbers. DQIX also still on the pathway conducing to 4 millions LTD. How much for Wii Black + MH3?

 

[Spiegel]

jesus guys wtf.

Whats all this MH3 will do 500k first week nonsense? When did we go from thinking it would do 700 to 800k lifetime at by the END of the gen on a slow slow off the charts burn for the last 200k to 500 freaking thousand weekend 1.

The freaking hype train is absurd around these parts. Its amazing how if you take a few weeks away from these threads and come back everything has balooned into absurdity. If you cant tell, I think these estimates are ridiculous, and that 250k to 300k would be an amazing start considering the bundle and the black Wii. A bit below those numbers wouldn't even shock me.

The hype train is absurd?
Did you miss how absurdly massive is the marketing for this game? Did you miss the 5 different bundles for the game? Did you miss the news of the first shipment being of 1 million copies?

MH3 will do much more than 250k first week, even KH DS sold 300k in the first two days.

Your 800k LTD prediction is the absurd one. If they don't sell the first shipment in the first month (highly unlikely with how massive is everything MH related now) I doubt Capcom will be happy with the sales.