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Media Create Sales: July 13-19, 2009

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Chris1964 said:
WII 19,000
Interesting.

If this holds up in Media Create, it seems donny's predicted (and surprisingly accurate so far) 2000 per week unit boost from Wii Sports Resort might be drying up sooner than expected.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
legend166 said:
What's with all the people expressing shock at the 360 sales? Where have you been for the last 4 years?
I'm surprised it took as long as it did for it to return to these levels honestly.

There's essentially nothing really relevant to the Japanese market that's been announced exclusively for the Xbox 360 in quite some time.
 

Brofist

Member
legend166 said:
What's with all the people expressing shock at the 360 sales? Where have you been for the last 4 years?
ITT people express shock and awe over low 360 sales and high DQIX sales.
 

apujanata

Member
BrokenSymmetry said:
So after 2 weeks:

DQ VII: 2,930,000
DQ VIII: 2,800,000
DQ IX: 2,923,000

It's amazing how close these numbers are!
The third week should be very, very interesting, for DQ9 vs DQ7.
 
Nirolak said:
Interesting.

If this holds up in Media Create, it seems donny's predicted (and surprisingly accurate so far) 2000 per week unit boost from Wii Sports Resort might be drying up sooner than expected.

You could perhaps argue that the drop may be due to the impending launch of the black Wii/Monster Hunter 3. If I'd waited for WSR before picking up a Wii and MH3 was launching with a desirable new colour console a few weeks later, I'd be tempted to wait.
 

kswiston

Member
Chris1964 said:
There is no way Dragon Quest IX follows the sales pattern of previous Dragon Quests. I'm not saying it will have the Pokemon Heart Gold / Soul Silver legs, but I fully expect it to at least double its first week sales. The only question right now is if it will join the 5 million club or it will remain in the 4-5 million scale. The following weeks until Pokemon will determine that.

I don't see how you can say that for sure. It's not like other S-E rpgs on the DS have had extreme legs (excepting Final Fantasy III years ago). Kingdom Hearts 358/2 days is the latest example of a S-E rpg failing to double its first week. The second week percentage drop for DQIX is almost the same as DQVIII's. Less than a percent better. It has already fallen behind DQVII leg-wise. If it mirrors DQVIII next week as well, then I don't think even 4M is guaranteed (without a budget release).
 
kswiston said:
I don't see how you can say that for sure. It's not like other S-E rpgs on the DS have had extreme legs (excepting Final Fantasy III years ago). Kingdom Hearts 358/2 days is the latest example of a S-E rpg failing to double its first week. The second week percentage drop for DQIX is almost the same as DQVIII's. Less than a percent better. It has already fallen behind DQVII leg-wise. If it mirrors DQVIII next week as well, then I don't think even 4M is guaranteed (without a budget release).
Yes, I agree. At the moment, it's going exactly to plan, and should dry up at around 3.7m. However, this time we have all this downloadable content, and it may just keep lugging around 20-40k mark for a couple months.
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
Nirolak said:
Interesting.

If this holds up in Media Create, it seems donny's predicted (and surprisingly accurate so far) 2000 per week unit boost from Wii Sports Resort might be drying up sooner than expected.

I don't know what you can really say about it. The sales are so low anyways that any "bump" might just be statistical noise. Then you have to factor in MH Tri/Black Wii coming out in almost a week, etc.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
schuelma said:
I don't know what you can really say about it. The sales are so low anyways that any "bump" might just be statistical noise. Then you have to factor in MH Tri/Black Wii coming out in almost a week, etc.
Actually, on second thought, that is... going to make telling what impact Wii Sports Resort had on the Wii almost impossible, since we don't know if any extended bump is coming from Wii Sports Resort, the Black Wii, Monster Hunter 3, or just the Fall season in general...

Hmm... well, at least the system has quite a few things going for it right now.
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
Nirolak said:
Actually, on second thought, that is... going to make telling what impact Wii Sports Resort had on the Wii almost impossible, since we don't know if any extended bump is coming from Wii Sports Resort, the Black Wii, Monster Hunter 3, or just the Fall season in general...

Hmm... well, at least the system has quite a few things going for it right now.

Exactly. My guess is any bump was minimal, but next Saturday is going to make that an impossible determination anyways.
 

donny2112

Member
Nirolak said:
If this holds up in Media Create, it seems donny's predicted (and surprisingly accurate so far) 2000 per week unit boost from Wii Sports Resort might be drying up sooner than expected.

It's definitely not raising the baseline as much as I expected, regardless. It could be making it hold up better while almost everything not attached to DQIX drops (2600 for #30 in Famitsu this week. :eek: ), but there doesn't seem to be a clear way to separate one out from the other.
 

Eteric Rice

Member
I think there's a pretty logical reason around WSR not boosting Wii sales very much. It's simply that it hits the very same audience that bought the Wii for Wii Sports. They've already bought the system, no need to buy another one. They need to find a new way to pull in potential buyers.

I think New Super Mario Bros. Wii is going to do that. Maybe Monster Hunter 3 as well.

Point is, they need to make something simple and accessible, that isn't Wii Sports related. Maybe a simple RPG that uses WM+? Or something in that manner.
 

Vinci

Danish
Eteric Rice said:
I think New Super Mario Bros. Wii is going to do that. Maybe Monster Hunter 3 as well.

There's a 'maybe' at this point? I would say it's a damned certainty.
 

Eteric Rice

Member
Vinci said:
There's a 'maybe' at this point? I would say it's a damned certainty.

Well, we really don't know how many are holding out for a PSP version of Monster Hunter 3. I expect it will bost Wii sales by quite a bit, though.

At this point, the Wii needs new, interesting software to recapture interest in the public.
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
Vinci said:
There's a 'maybe' at this point? I would say it's a damned certainty.


I think its still a maybe in terms of boosting sales long term. No doubt we're going to see a short term bump with MH Tri and the new color. If it catches on to even a small degree of the portable ones we could see a long term bump. If it displays no legs, I think things will return to normal relatively quickly.
 

hatchx

Banned
kswiston said:
I don't see how you can say that for sure. It's not like other S-E rpgs on the DS have had extreme legs (excepting Final Fantasy III years ago). Kingdom Hearts 358/2 days is the latest example of a S-E rpg failing to double its first week. The second week percentage drop for DQIX is almost the same as DQVIII's. Less than a percent better. It has already fallen behind DQVII leg-wise. If it mirrors DQVIII next week as well, then I don't think even 4M is guaranteed (without a budget release).



Well WW it will definitely hit the 5 million mark. The game looks very well produced. I would expect strong if not excellent sales in NA and Europe.

How did the other DQ games do in other markets?
 
hatchx said:
Well WW it will definitely hit the 5 million mark. The game looks very well produced. I would expect strong if not excellent sales in NA and Europe.

How did the other DQ games do in other markets?
Fucking terribly, aside from the one packaged with an FFXII demo.
 

Vinci

Danish
schuelma said:
I think its still a maybe in terms of boosting sales long term. No doubt we're going to see a short term bump with MH Tri and the new color. If it catches on to even a small degree of the portable ones we could see a long term bump. If it displays no legs, I think things will return to normal relatively quickly.

In a vacuum, MH3 isn't going to boost the Wii's sales for longer than a month or so. The system will need more software that's compelling in order to maintain it. Even the MH fanbase is only so big - and that's if they're willing to jump in with strong enough number to word-of-mouth it to the rest. I thought Eteric was stating that he expected it to not do much beyond WSR - but that's apples to oranges; they couldn't appeal to more different people if they tried.

Also, I don't see why NSMB Wii is going to have a bigger impact than MH3. Will it have an impact? Sure. But with the same potential? I don't think so. NSMB DS doesn't make NSMB Wii going nuclear a certainty, and I think it will appeal to many of the people who already own the Wii in Japan.
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
Vinci said:
Also, I don't see why NSMB Wii is going to have a bigger impact than MH3. Will it have an impact? Sure. But with the same potential? I don't think so. NSMB DS doesn't make NSMB Wii going nuclear a certainty, and I think it will appeal to many of the people who already own the Wii in Japan.

Its certainly mostly guess work, but I think you can make an argument that a 2D console Mario has more mainstream potential than Monster Hunter Tri does. I agree that it will appeal to a lot of people that have a Wii, but I also think it could appeal to people that don't have a Wii but have a DS.
 

donny2112

Member
The "always slightly wrong but usually close" early MC data site has Wii still over 20K at 20,700, by the way. For reference, last week they were off by ~250 on the Wii.

Link

KirmiziBeyaz said:

Yeah, I had to double-take for a second there. :lol
 

Vinci

Danish
schuelma said:
Its certainly mostly guess work, but I think you can make an argument that a 2D console Mario has more mainstream potential than Monster Hunter Tri does. I agree that it will appeal to a lot of people that have a Wii, but I also think it could appeal to people that don't have a Wii but have a DS.

The thing that might give it more potential impact is its release being in or near the holidays. Otherwise, I don't think it makes as big a blip on the radar as MH3 could.
 
hatchx said:
Well WW it will definitely hit the 5 million mark. The game looks very well produced. I would expect strong if not excellent sales in NA and Europe.
Segata Sanshiro said:
Fucking terribly, aside from the one packaged with an FFXII demo.
Worth noting that the sales wizards at theSimExchange have DQIX at nearly 7 million worldwide. Good shorting opportunity. Well, I guess not necessarily. Sometimes a game reaching the 600K range and falling off all shipment reports isn't cause to stop hoping for 900K for some people.
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
donny2112 said:
The "always slightly wrong but usually close" early MC data site has Wii still over 20K at 20,700, by the way. For reference, last week they were off by ~250 on the Wii.

PSP slinking its way down to Wii levels.
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
Sage00 said:
I wonder how much the announcement of the PSP Go is to blame for this.


That could be a bit, but I think its more just the general downturn and lack of system moving software.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Dedication Through Light said:
Pokemon Platinum managed to climb into number 10, interesting.
Didn't a Pokemon movie just come out actually?

If it did, that might have something to do with it.

Edit: Beaten.
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
JoshuaJSlone said:
Worth noting that the sales wizards at theSimExchange have DQIX at nearly 7 million worldwide. Good shorting opportunity. Well, I guess not necessarily. Sometimes a game reaching the 600K range and falling off all shipment reports isn't cause to stop hoping for 900K for some people.

That's why I stopped using The Sim Exchange. It's only enjoyable if the market is free from manipulation by entrenched bidders who ignore evidence. The Futures contracts are fun because there's a payout, but the LTD sales stuff is just filled with people who have no reason to not operate in blissful delusion. Too bad, really.
 
mc

February through last week's numbers. Looks like the steepest drop came in early May when it dropped from 43K to 29K. That's a bit before the (official) Go announcement.
 
Wait, do I have this right?

Handhelds sold:

142,000

High-Definition consoles sold:

11,000



Is that how it was in Japan this week? For every 1 HD console, 13 handhelds were sold?

I know we have the DQ spike, but damn. And life to date:

Handhelds: 39.5 million

HD consoles: 4.3 million

Not much better. Does nobody in Japan have an HD TV? Is that just not a thing over there?
 

XiaNaphryz

LATIN, MATRIPEDICABUS, DO YOU SPEAK IT
David H Wong said:
Is that how it was in Japan this week? For every 1 HD console, 13 handhelds were sold?
Just THIS week? :lol

Are you new to MC threads? Japan has the highest HD penetration anywhere, and they've been pushing the tech far longer than anyone else (regular HD programming started airing in the late 90s/early 00s).
 

CTLance

Member
Hm. So this is the quiet before the storm, thread-wise.

Oh boy oh boy oh boy, I cannot wait to see what MH3 does when it comes out next week (it's next week, right?). If it sells badly, 20 page thread. If it sells great, 20 page thread. If it sells normally, 15 page thread.

I'd have liked to see what the black Wii by itself would have done, but oh well.

I'm intrigued by the closeness in sales of DQ 7/8/9, as of the second week. Coincidence, or is the DQ "hardcore" fanbase maxing out at roughly 3 million? I kind of doubt that, and it's too soon to say either way, but it's certainly interesting to follow.

I hope Squares "anti-second hand market" tactic pays off and we get a lot more games that give us huge replay value/postgame content. There culd be a downside to that too ("gimped games"), but I've decided to be optimistic on that issue.
 

cvxfreak

Member
donny, can you conjure up some statistics on DQIX assuming it follows FFIII's long legs?

Despite how hyped Crisis Core and Dissidia were, they still haven't beaten FFIII.
 

Eteric Rice

Member
Question to the guys that have been living in Japan for years.

Back in the 90s, and 80s (if you've been there that long, I doubt it), were video game commercials ever really focused on the visual appeal of a game? It seems that a lot of the time, it was in the USA.

I have to wonder if this is effected the way Japanese gamers decide what to buy. In the USA, the first thing we look to is visuals, but is it the same in Japan? Or do they just look and say, "looks good enough," and find other things that might attract them?

I'm just curious.
 

markatisu

Member
CTLance said:
Hm. So this is the quiet before the storm, thread-wise.

Oh boy oh boy oh boy, I cannot wait to see what MH3 does when it comes out next week (it's next week, right?). If it sells badly, 20 page thread. If it sells great, 20 page thread. If it sells normally, 15 page thread.
.

Just a question, what is normal in regards to a MH console game :lol

I picture badly would be 400-500k, great would be 900-1.5m and "normal" would be 550-700k (since MHG Wii sold about 250k and I think the LTD for the PS2 MH game was in the 500-600k range)
 
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