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[schuelma]

Just a question, what is normal in regards to a MH console game :lol

I picture badly would be 400-500k, great would be 900-1.5m and "normal" would be 550-700k (since MHG Wii sold about 250k and I think the LTD for the PS2 MH game was in the 500-600k range)

To meet Capcom's expectations I think it has to break a million. I believe that is pretty likely.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Not much better. Does nobody in Japan have an HD TV?

Not as many as have pockets.

donny, can you conjure up some statistics on DQIX assuming it follows FFIII's long legs?

Despite how hyped Crisis Core and Dissidia were, they still haven't beaten FFIII.

FF III was a pretty freak and undershipped occurrence, but it almost exactly doubled its first week. Double DQIX's first week and that's ~4.7 million.

I picture badly would be 400-500k, great would be 900-1.5m and "normal" would be 550-700k (since MHG Wii sold about 250k and I think the LTD for the PS2 MH game was in the 500-600k range)

To meet Capcom's expectations I think it has to break a million. I believe that is pretty likely.

Yeah, expectations of "normal" are certainly a biiit different than in 2006 when Monster Hunter 2 launched. At that time, no Monster Hunter had yet reached 0.5 million, let alone the 3+ million of MHP2G.

Sales of a Wii port of a 5-year-old PS2 port matching the original definitely shows an uptick, too. Are there any similar situations we could look to for comparison? Series first appears on console through old port, then gets new entry a few months later? Other port->sequels I can think of are more spread out, like the DS Ace Attorneys.

 

[schuelma]

Yeah, expectations of "normal" are certainly a biiit different than in 2006 when Monster Hunter 2 launched. At that time, no Monster Hunter had yet reached 0.5 million, let alone the 3+ million of MHP2G.

Sales of a Wii port of a 5-year-old PS2 port matching the original definitely shows an uptick, too. Are there any similar situations we could look to for comparison? Series first appears on console through old port, then gets new entry a few months later? Other port->sequels I can think of are more spread out, like the DS Ace Attorneys.

Yeah, MH Tri definitely seems like a unique case in terms of finding a similar release to compar it with. I'm just using my own common sense. Capcom expects it to sell a ton, they're hyping it to death, and we know there are at least 3 million people that love Monster Hunter. I think it can get to a million with relative ease.

 

[BattleMonkey]

Just a question, what is normal in regards to a MH console game :lol

I picture badly would be 400-500k, great would be 900-1.5m and "normal" would be 550-700k (since MHG Wii sold about 250k and I think the LTD for the PS2 MH game was in the 500-600k range)

Just answered your own question

 

[Takao]

Reviews mean very little to the Dragonball crowd. Hell, in Japan Dragonball Evolution did pretty well.

The game certainly wasn't well received in Japan ("There was a game?"). It did something like 2000 copies in its first week, I think? I'm sure it didn't help that it was using a three year old graphics, and fighting engine.

 

[MotherFan]

Wait, do I have this right?

Handhelds sold:

142,000

High-Definition consoles sold:

11,000



Is that how it was in Japan this week? For every 1 HD console, 13 handhelds were sold?

And people in the "What is the future of home console RPGs thread" keep thinking that all the announcements are going to be for console rpgs and not handheld. It's madness.

 

[TheKingsCrown]

And people in the "What is the future of home console RPGs thread" keep thinking that all the announcements are going to be for console rpgs and not handheld. It's madness.

I am partially surprised that FF13 and 14 haven't gone to handhelds myself. But that's just me.

 

[Eteric Rice]

And people in the "What is the future of home console RPGs thread" keep thinking that all the announcements are going to be for console rpgs and not handheld. It's madness.

They really believe this?

 

[Cosmonaut X]

And people in the "What is the future of home console RPGs thread" keep thinking that all the announcements are going to be for console rpgs and not handheld. It's madness.

I really am beginning to wonder whether Nintendo - or one of the other players - is giving serious thought to a home/handheld hybrid for the next gen.

 

[DR2K]

I am partially surprised that FF13 and 14 haven't gone to handhelds myself. But that's just me.

Pretty simple answer, the rest of the world buys plenty of consoles, and FF is a worldwide seller.

 

[Eteric Rice]

Pretty simple answer, the rest of the world buys plenty of consoles, and FF is a worldwide seller.

Rest of the world buys plenty of handhelds as well.

 

[Kenka]

Rest of the world buys plenty of handhelds as well.

Given the FFXIV situation, is it safe to conclude that the best model in the gaming world (even better than handhelds) for a RPG company is to cash on monthly fees for MMOs for HD consoles and PC ?

 

[Chris1964]

I don't see how you can say that for sure. It's not like other S-E rpgs on the DS have had extreme legs (excepting Final Fantasy III years ago). Kingdom Hearts 358/2 days is the latest example of a S-E rpg failing to double its first week. The second week percentage drop for DQIX is almost the same as DQVIII's. Less than a percent better. It has already fallen behind DQVII leg-wise. If it mirrors DQVIII next week as well, then I don't think even 4M is guaranteed (without a budget release).

Kingdom Hearts hasn't stop selling and when it's all said and done it can very well double its first week.
Now let's see previous Dragon Quest or Final Fantasy titles on DS. Media Create and not famitsu numbers just for change.

TITLE / RELEASE DATE / FIRST WEEK / LTD / FIRST WEEK to LTD RATIO
Dragon Quest Heroes: Rocket Slime / 01/12/05 / 45.810 / 296.569 / 0,15
Final Fantasy III / 24/08/06 / 503.051 / 1.052.882 / 0,48
Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker / 28/12/06 / 593.994 / 1.486.979 / 0,40
Final Fantasy XII: Revenant Wings / 26/04/07 / 274.004 / 520.058 / 0,53
Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles: Rings of Fate / 23/08/07 / 177.845 / 374.409 / 0,48
Final Fantasy Tactics A2: Grimoire of the Rift / 25/10/07 / 142.191 / 296.332 / 0,48
Dragon Quest IV: Chapters of the Chosen / 22/11/07 / 597.301 / 1.288.085 / 0,46
Final Fantasy IV / 20/12/07 / 287.697 / 648.907 / 0,44
Dragon Quest V: Hand of the Heavenly Bride / 17/07/08 / 643.764 / 1.237.125 / 0,52
Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles: Echoes of Time / 29/01/09 / 101.718 / 155.894 / 0,65

The number for Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles: Echoes of Time is just for the first 3 weeks, but at the Famitsu 2009 half year chart its LTD is 230.000 so the ratio is well below 0,50.

I could add and the rest Square Enix RPGs for DS but with the exception of Chrono Trigger, which was extremely frontloaded, the ratio would get even better.
Now taking into consideration everything Jonnyram said about DQ IX used sales, the one save slot per cartridge and the fact that this is the biggest DS 3rd party title to date I still think that doubling the first week (4,5 millions) is the worst case. Like I said before next weeks until Pokemon will show that. If you want a prediction DQ IX's 3rd week will be closer to DQ VII's than DQ VIII's, and the following weeks it won't have the sharp declines the others two had.

Regardind Monster Hunter 3 I'm with those who support it will reach the non game status and it will become the first million seller 3rd party for a Nintendo home console since Super Famicom.

 

[Eteric Rice]

Given the FFXIV situation, is it safe to conclude that the best model in the gaming world (even better than handhelds) for a RPG company is to cash on monthly fees for MMOs for HD consoles and PC ?

Depends on if your franchise can make it as an MMO.

 

[GDGF]

I really am beginning to wonder whether Nintendo - or one of the other players - is giving serious thought to a home/handheld hybrid for the next gen.

I am pretty damn sure this is the next step, myself.

 

[Eteric Rice]

I am pretty damn sure this is the next step, myself.

Same here.

 

[Cheez-It]

Interesting thought. You would face some major trade-offs though; you have the size issue (limited power/cooling, AV output), and what would you do for a controller? Have one setup on the device, but also allow wireless controllers? Storage is certainly possible, but I don't think the margins on SD media or whatever would provide comparable space to even a DVD would be as preferable as optical media.

Those are two somewhat major issues having never thought of this before. I'm sure there are many others.

Unless this was a console more limited than a GC...

 

[Kenka]

Same here.

I don't see it happen. In this case, handhelds would probably need to be devices that can be directly plugged on/linked to your TV screen. The "console" would be nothing but the signal of a distant machine calculating all the stuff and displaying it directly at your place.

Imagining the future possibilities is an exciting exercise.

 

[HK-47]

Depends on if your franchise can make it as an MMO.

Which FF clearly has so I dont get your point...

 

[Eteric Rice]

Which FF clearly has so I dont get your point...

He asked that if the best strategy for an RPG is to go the MMO route. I said that it depends on how big the RPG is. Final Fantasy is one of the games that can successfully do an MMO. If we're talking sheer money, it's probably the best route for that big of a franchise.

It's the same with Pokemon.

I don't see it happen. In this case, handhelds would probably need to be devices that can be directly plugged on/linked to your TV screen. The "console" would be nothing but the signal of a distant machine calculating all the stuff and displaying it directly at your place.

Imagining the future possibilities is an exciting exercise.

Like the PSP can currently do. I imagine that either next generation, or the generation after, this will be the route one or more of the big companies will take. The big part of gaming's future will be in portables. I'm not just talking handhelds, but phones, mp3 players, etc.

 

[Eteric Rice]

DP.

 

[Somnid]

I really am beginning to wonder whether Nintendo - or one of the other players - is giving serious thought to a home/handheld hybrid for the next gen.

Pretty much where the PSP Go falls. The PSP was never much of a portable both because of bulk and the design of the games was simply mirroring home console ones as opposed to DS. The Go can use a Dual Shock 3 and should support TV out so essentially it is the hybrid. But I think that there will be a seperated system and that's where Nintendo went with Wii, you can't do that on a portable no matter how well technology progresses.

My personal feeling is that the next market will be ultra-compact portables. Even DSi and PSP Go are big by MP3 player standards and don't really fit well into a standard pocket, they have features that go way beyond gaming and they are starting to get expensive but what if you cut the specs down a bit and stuck it into something the size of an iPod Nano, with a cheap price and download only games? The idea's sorta been done a little bit before with GBM and the recent resurgence of keychain devices like the Pokewalk for Pokemon HG/SS, but what if they made something along these lines that you could keep on your person at all times?

 

[Hero of Legend]

Media Create Hardware: July 13-19, 2009

DSi 96,986
PSP 24,053
Wii 20,807
DS Lite 9,932
PS3 8,865
PS2 3,352
Xbox 360 2,899

DSi's quite a bit lower than predicted, and Wii's a tad higher. Huh.

 

[Grampasso]

Regardind Monster Hunter 3 I'm with those who support it will reach the non game status and it will become the first million seller 3rd party for a Nintendo home console since Super Famicom.

And the first 3rd party million seller on a home console since FFXII, right? And what was Capcom's last million seller on a home console? (if there ever was one, I don't know actually...)

 

[Road]

And the first 3rd party million seller on a home console since FFXII, right? And what was Capcom's last million seller on a home console? (if there ever was one, I don't know actually...)

Onimusha 2?

I also thought it would be something way further back.

Edit: (If I'm doing it right) According to Garaph WE10 was the last million seller (single release):
2006-04-27 - World Soccer Winning Eleven 10 - 1,050,236

And Onimusha numbers:
2002-03-07 - Onimusha 2 - 1,002,968

 

[d+pad]

Regarding Monster Hunter 3 I'm with those who support it will reach the non game status and it will become the first million seller 3rd party for a Nintendo home console since Super Famicom.

There hasn't been a million-selling third-party game on a Nintendo console (in Japan alone, I'm guessing) since the Super Famicom? I don't know why, but that surprises me!

 

[AniHawk]

Pretty simple answer, the rest of the world buys plenty of consoles, and FF is a worldwide seller.

I'd go with, because these games were in the works long before we knew what the console landscape would look like this gen.

In the case of FFXIV, MMOs are really a console and (mostly) PC thing.

 

[Eteric Rice]

Pretty much where the PSP Go falls. The PSP was never much of a portable both because of bulk and the design of the games was simply mirroring home console ones as opposed to DS. The Go can use a Dual Shock 3 and should support TV out so essentially it is the hybrid. But I think that there will be a seperated system and that's where Nintendo went with Wii, you can't do that on a portable no matter how well technology progresses.

My personal feeling is that the next market will be ultra-compact portables. Even DSi and PSP Go are big by MP3 player standards and don't really fit well into a standard pocket, they have features that go way beyond gaming and they are starting to get expensive but what if you cut the specs down a bit and stuck it into something the size of an iPod Nano, with a cheap price and download only games? The idea's sorta been done a little bit before with GBM and the recent resurgence of keychain devices like the Pokewalk for Pokemon HG/SS, but what if they made something along these lines that you could keep on your person at all times?

Don't really think you can get Ipod size with a handheld gaming system. Mainly because you have to make room for the controls, and you have to have a big enough screen for the majority of people to be able to see whats going on.

 

[Johann]

Given the FFXIV situation, is it safe to conclude that the best model in the gaming world (even better than handhelds) for a RPG company is to cash on monthly fees for MMOs for HD consoles and PC ?

MMOs that require eight digit development budgets and years of development? That's quite a Hail Mary.

I'm not even sure FFXIV will do well in a post-WoW market. Just about every big-budget, traditional MMO is self-destructing. At least it has the console(s?). Then again, one of the reasons most MMO developers avoid consoles since the consoles, unlike a PC, will lose popularity and mindshare by the time your MMO is out.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Hmm. Famitsu website hasn't updated yet. This doesn't seem to be a time they'd normally combine two weeks, so I wonder what the holdup is.

Given the FFXIV situation, is it safe to conclude that the best model in the gaming world (even better than handhelds) for a RPG company is to cash on monthly fees for MMOs for HD consoles and PC ?

That seems a stretch. But if you can capture a big enough slice of the pie, it certainly is nice to have in addition to taking advantage of both the regular handheld and home console markets. Certainly, though, if this year we'd instead seen the launches of Mario & Luigi MMORPG, Infinite Space MMORPG, Kingdom Hearts 358/MMO, and Tales of the World: MMO they'd split the market quite a bit.

There hasn't been a million-selling third-party game on a Nintendo console (in Japan alone, I'm guessing) since the Super Famicom? I don't know why, but that surprises me!

Well, here are all of them; first or third.
Super Mario 64
Mario Kart 64
Pokémon Stadium
The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
Super Smash Bros.

Super Smash Bros. Melee

Wii Play
Wii Sports
Mario Party 8
Wii Fit
Super Smash Bros. Brawl
Mario Kart Wii
Animal Crossing City Folk

 

[cvxfreak]

Sales of a Wii port of a 5-year-old PS2 port matching the original definitely shows an uptick, too. Are there any similar situations we could look to for comparison? Series first appears on console through old port, then gets new entry a few months later? Other port->sequels I can think of are more spread out, like the DS Ace Attorneys.

Resident Evil 4 Wii Edition and Umbrella Chronicles?

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Resident Evil 4 Wii Edition and Umbrella Chronicles?

Hmm. On the one hand it was a spinoff that played nothing like the first release, but on the other hand it sold twice as well anyway.

It also reminds me of the more similarly-playing REmake and RE0 in the same year on GameCube, though REmake was a bit more than just a port.

 

[future_pinoy]

Media Create Hardware: July 13-19, 2009

DSi 96,986
PSP 24,053
Wii 20,807
DS Lite 9,932
PS3 8,865
PS2 3,352
Xbox 360 2,899

DSi's quite a bit lower than predicted, and Wii's a tad higher. Huh.

Wii is surprisingly high, what causes the bump ?

 

[cvxfreak]

Wii is surprisingly high, what causes the bump ?

It's actually a little bit lower than last week.

 

[Gaborn]

Wii is surprisingly high, what causes the bump ?

Wii Sports Resort presumably.

 

[The Faceless Master]

are people buying wiis so they can download demos for their DS?

what's going on there?

oh, Wii Sports Resort...

 

[Neo C.]

I really am beginning to wonder whether Nintendo - or one of the other players - is giving serious thought to a home/handheld hybrid for the next gen.

Perhaps we will see more diversity in the handheld market, but I doubt a home/handheld hybrid would be the dominant system.

This gen it makes me realize how annoying home console gaming really is. Handheld gaming is more comfortable, easier to use and it fits way better in today's lifestyle. I can immediately start, immediately take a break and immediately stop playing a DS game, but I need to make sure there won't be anybody in the next hour who could interrupt me when I want to play a home console game.
If the trade-off of a home/handheld hybrid is less portability, I hardly see the advantage of that kind of a system.

 

[laserbeam]

Looks like the Wii is stabilizing as far as weekly sales go into the 20k range. Will be interesting to see if the new color and bundle will lead to a long term increase or just a short large burst

 

[Tenbatsu]

It's actually a little bit lower than last week.

Next week! Next week!

 

[Chris1964]

Until donny updates the OP:

31. [Wii] New Play Control! Chibi-Robo (Nintendo)
32. [DS] Infinite Space (Sega)
33. [Wii] New Play Control! Pikmin 2 (Nintendo)
34. [Wii] Wii Play (Nintendo)
35. [PS3] Tears to Tiara: Kakan no Daichi (AquaPrice 2800) (Aquaplus)
36. [PSP] Devil Kings: Battle Heroes (Capcom)
37. [DS] Kirby Super Star Ultra (Nintendo)
38. [Wii] Wii Sports (Nintendo)
39. [DS] Professor Tago's Mind Exercises Vol. 1: Puzzle Solving Journey Around the World (Level 5)
40. [Wii] EA Sports Grand Slam Tennis (Electronic Arts)
41. [DS] Dragon Ball Z: Attack of the Saiyans (Namco Bandai)
42. [PSP] Evangelion: Prologue (Namco Bandai)
43. [Wii] Animal Crossing: City Folk (Nintendo)
44. [DS] Professor Layton and the Last Time Travel (Level 5)
45. [DS] WarioWare: Do-It-Yourself (Nintendo)
46. [PS3] Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots (Konami the Best) (Konami)
47. [DS] Style Savvy (Wagamama fashion: Girls Mode) (Nintendo)
48. [PS3] Dynasty Warriors 6: Empires (Koei)
49. [Wii] Super Smash Bros. Brawl (Nintendo)
50. [DS] Picross 3D (Nintendo)

M-Create finally gives us last week's total software sales. This week's total software sales are 1.254.521, 43,38% of last week. So last week's sales are 2.891.934. Taking into consideration DQ IX sold 2.318.932 last week it represents 80,19% of total software.

DS passes another milestone. It has now sold 27.065.355 units in Japan. It's on track to sell 29 millions by the end of the year and 30 millions by the first quarter of 2010.

PS2 hits new low by M-Create (3.352 units). Its decline isn't as fast as GBA but it's certainly on the way out.

PS3 drops below 9.000 for the first time since the week of October 20 2008 (the week before Gran Turismo 5: Prologue - Spec 3, Grand Theft Auto IV and LittleBigPlanet).

360 drops below 3.000 for the first time since the week of September 1 2008 (the week before Infinitive Undiscovery).

 

[lochnesssnowman]

Information

You, sir, are a fine addition to the sales age team.

 

[HK-47]

Wii is surprisingly high, what causes the bump ?

Thats not high at all.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

First day sales (sinobi)

[PS3] Katamari Damacy Tribute - 19,000
[NDS] Katekyoo Hitman Reborn! DS Flame Rumble X - Mirai Chou-Bakuhatsu!! - 16,000

[NDS] Penguin no Mondai: Tenkuu no Senshi - 14,000 to 20,000
[NDS] Okaeri! Chibi-Robo! Happy Richie Oosouji - 14,000 to 20,000

[WII] Dragon Ball: Tenkaichi Daibouken - 5,800
[WII] Punch-Out!! - 3,400
[PS3] Toro to Morimori - 2,800


Some first day comparisons from sinobi too

· Katamari Damacy titles:
July 2005: PS2 "Minna Daisuki Katamari Damacy" - 39k
December 2005: PSP "Me and My Katamari" - 12k
October 2007: Xbox360 "Beautiful Katamari Damacy," - 9,6k
July 2009: PS3 "Katamari Damacy Tribute" - 19k

· Takara-Tomy Hitman titles:
June 2007: "Katekyoo Hitman Reborn! DS Flame Rumble Mukuro Kyoushuu" - 11k
September 2007: "Katekyoo Hitman Reborn!! DS Flame Rumble Kaien Ring Soudatsuen!" - 15k
July 2008: "Katekyoo Hitman Reborn! DS Flame Rumble Hyper - Moeyo Mirai" - 18k
July 2009: "Katekyoo Hitman Reborn! DS Flame Rumble X - Mirai Chou-Bakuhatsu!!" - 16k

 

[ITA84]

First day sales (sinobi)
[NDS] Penguin no Mondai: Tenkuu no Senshi - 14,000 to 20,000
[NDS] Okaeri! Chibi-Robo! Happy Richie Oosouji - 14,000 to 20,000

Neither is particularly good, compared to the opening week of PenMon 1 and Park Patrol (both 50-60K).

 

[Somnid]

Don't really think you can get Ipod size with a handheld gaming system. Mainly because you have to make room for the controls, and you have to have a big enough screen for the majority of people to be able to see whats going on.

That's because your band of games is too narrow. It already is a rather large market, Tamagotchis were incredibly popular but that success was never full capitalized with variety. In essence you can make games on a smaller scale, perhaps even less action based (most cell phone games don't have the best of controls and they are popular even they also aren't designed with them in mind either). The Gameboy micro is also pretty damn small and this is the ball-park size we'd be talking.

 

[the thoroughbred]

That's because your band of games is too narrow. It already is a rather large market, Tamagotchis were incredibly popular but that success was never full capitalized with variety. In essence you can make games on a smaller scale, perhaps even less action based (most cell phone games don't have the best of controls and they are popular even they also aren't designed with them in mind either). The Gameboy micro is also pretty damn small and this is the ball-park size we'd be talking.

Think return of the magnifying glass.

I loved the GBM. Imagine DSi like that, with a touch screen magnifying glass that popped up, like the old GB's.

 

[test_account]

What happend to Wagamama Fashion: Girls Mode for the DS? It was looking like this game could be a million seller, but now it isnt even in the Media Create Top 50 list :\

EDIT: Garaph.info lists the game at 840,542 copies sold.

http://garaph.info/softwareindividual.php?gameid=3236

Regardind Monster Hunter 3 I'm with those who support it will reach the non game status and it will become the first million seller 3rd party for a Nintendo home console since Super Famicom.

What is "non game status"? I have seen it being mentioned some times before as well, and i think it was something that Iwata (?) from Nintendo said one time, but what does "non game" means?

 

[Dra-Q]

Handheld gaming <3

 

[Chris1964]

What happend to Wagamama Fashion: Girls Mode for the DS? It was looking like this game could be a million seller, but now it isnt even in the Media Create Top 50 list :\

It's number 47
47. [DS] Style Savvy (Nintendo)
I use the u.s. name of it

What is "non game status"? I have seen it being mentioned some times before as well, but what does it mean?

When a game hits one million becomes non game. This comes from the golden years of ds when all those training nintendo games became million sellers.

 

[Meier]

What is "non game status"? I have seen it being mentioned some times before as well, and i think it was something that Iwata (?) from Nintendo said one time, but what does "non game" means?

I'm surprised that someone in a sales thread who has been around for awhile doesn't know the joke. If a game reaches platinum on a Nintendo system, it's automatically referred to as a non-game in the vein of Wii Fit or Brain Training (what spurred it).