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[AnimeTheme]

Maybe like some people have one opinion and then other people totally have another opinion.

It's more like the "hardcore vs casual" case. I am curious to know what the first-time MH players think about the game.

 

[cvxfreak]

I think I would be disappointed somewhat if DQIX didn't become the best selling in the series. I never believed 5 Million was in the cards and always thought that was way too optimistic. DQ is still DQ. But I do maintain that it has the potential to break through DQVII, but it looking iffier with each week.

A lot of people expected Tri to disappoint, but that one's doing a reasonable job of meeting or breaking expectations. DQIX, on the other hand, may not live up to its supposed 5 Million potential.

 

[Soundwave2000]

how can little third party titles compete with the big third party titles on ps3/360?

They don't actually by and large.

The PS3/360 are driven by their big third party games.

Why people think a Nintendo platform should magically be different and things like Little King Story (as nice of a game as it is) or a niche type of release like Madworld should be enough to garner big sales is actually quite insane.

I mean can you imagine if the PS2 had very few big third party releases and people were using something like Godhand or something as a barometer for third party success on the machine ... yikes.

 

[Vinci]

It's more like the "hardcore vs casual" case. I am curious to know what the first-time MH players think about the game.

So you're saying everyone that has played MH games before feels Tri is a disappointing game by comparison?

 

[schuelma]

Also remember that Tri currently only has 3.25 stars on Amazon, which as we know is a reliable indicator of satisfaction (1up actually cited both MH Tri's and DQ IX's Amazon rankings in an article today).

 

[duckroll]

So you're saying everyone that has played MH games before feels Tri is a disappointing game by comparison?

I don't think you can say that. Considering MHP2G has sold like 3 million copies, it's impossible that even 50% of those are all hardcore gamers. Maybe more like 10%.

 

[Vinci]

Also remember that Tri currently only has 3.25 stars on Amazon, which as we know is a reliable indicator of satisfaction (1up actually cited both MH Tri's and DQ IX's Amazon rankings in an article today).

I noticed that. Both scores are confusing. Isn't it possible that some of those reviews are coming from people who haven't played a MH before and simply found they didn't like the game after trying it out? MH isn't for everyone, I've heard.

I don't think you can say that. Considering MHP2G has sold like 3 million copies, it's impossible that even 50% of those are all hardcore gamers. Maybe more like 10%.

Fair enough.

 

[Soundwave2000]

I don't think it was ever realistic to expect a console MH to have the same legs as a portable version.

The portable market is a lot healthier than the console market in Japan right now and there's a more social aspect to the PSP multi (you can play with friends on the train, during breaks at school, etc. with them right next to you).

People may try to spin it their own way, but I find it hard to believe if MH3 can even sell "only" 1 million copies on the Wii in Japan that that isn't a pretty big deal.

 

[faridmon]

They don't actually by and large.

The PS3/360 are driven by their big third party games.

Why people think a Nintendo platform should magically be different and things like Little King Story (as nice of a game as it is) or a niche type of release like Madworld should be enough to garner big sales is actually quite insane.

I mean can you imagine if the PS2 had very few big third party releases and people were using something like Godhand or something as a barometer for third party success on the machine ... yikes.

but on PS2, many small third party games were sucecessful.
and even on 360 where a flipping Tenchu Z can have a decent sales.

 

[Dragon]

I don't really have a list, but it's quite easy to come up with the stupid shit people have said over the past years....

"Third parties don't sell on the Wii", because the following games don't count...

- Party games
- Sports games
- Mini games
- Fitness games
- Music games
- Kids games
- Puzzle games

This accounts for about 80% of all games, but we all know these are casual games, or to use the correct term: non-games. So they don't count. Also...

- Big Franchises that sell on every console
- Wii versions of older (PS2, GC, ...) games
- Games that have a Nintendo mascot in them, or really any link with Nintendo
- Licensed games from movies, tv-series, ...

Because we all know these games would sell well regardless...

And lastly, don't forget: any game that reaches 1,000,000 units sold is automatically disqualified as proof that third party games sell on the Wii.

Just because these threads are primarily Nintendomination doesn't mean opposing viewpoints or thoughts as long as they're thoughtfully articulated can't be voiced. There's something that can be learned by talking things over with a polarizing person as long as it doesn't get into attack mode.

Just because someone is wrong about a particular subject doesn't mean their opinion should automatically be disregarded and thrown out with the trash. Instead of complaining about people who constantly "don't get it" you could ignore or try to teach them. And if they don't listen to your arguments and it bothers you that much you can ignore them.

Your complaints are fruitless and are just as much of a thread deterrent as those people who refuse to agree with the facts. I may know the least about the Japanese, their video game hardware and software sales, their culture or anything else but I don't see anything wrong with presenting my opinion respectfully. It's the best way to learn, to be ignorant and ask questions and present my opinion in order to see how my thoughts have steered me wrong .

 

[schuelma]

People may try to spin it their own way, but I find it hard to believe if MH3 can even sell "only" 1 million copies on the Wii in Japan that that isn't a pretty big deal.

I think the announcement of the 1 million initial shipment number might have unfairly raised expectations for some people. I think if you would have told people 2 years ago that it would sell 583K in 2 days most people would have been impressed.

 

[Soundwave2000]

but on PS2, many small third party games were sucecessful.
and even on 360 where a flipping Tenchu Z can have a decent sales.

Those platforms are much more third party centric though ... the situation on the PS3/360 is almost the reverse of the Nintendo consoles ... the 3rd parties on those machines are more like the 1st party.

If you stripped the PS3 and 360 of the major third party IPs (lets say you moved Final Fantasy and Resident Evil and DMC etc. etc. etc. all to Wii) ... you likely would have a situation develop on the PS3/360 as well where consumers would only start to buy the higher quality 1st party software and not pay attention to the middling third party stuff.

It's becomes a habit after a while.

 

[Error]

I don't know how it could be disappointing, sure the content might not match the PSP versions...

But then you noticed the PSP versions recycled stuff from MH2 and MHP1. Then later MHP2G recycled all the stuff from MHP2 and added a few stuff. In MH3 a good 65% (just being cautious since I haven't played it) is new, most of the monsters are new, that means new armors and weapon designs, new areas, ability to swim etc.. etc... Sucks they took out some weapon types, though.

But anyway it's a MH with a lot of new content (that obviously means stuff not seen in previous games), unless you have some sort of warped nostalgia for the old versions... Or just hate the fact that the Wii got a MH game, then I don't see how you could be disappointed. I don't doubt MH3 will be a long ass game, and people will be playing it for awhile. I really doubt you can see everything there is to see in 20 days of playing online. That's ridiculous hyperbole to me. You might see all the monsters in 20 days maybe, but getting all the armor/weapons, which is what MH is all about, will sure as fuck not take you only 20 days to see. Unless you aren't a human being, then maybe there's a slight possibility.

 

[Soundwave2000]

I think the announcement of the 1 million initial shipment number might have unfairly raised expectations for some people. I think if you would have told people 2 years ago that it would sell 583K in 2 days most people would have been impressed.

Which is kind of silly too because I suspect Capcom was covering their butts a bit here. Just *in case* MH3 on the Wii didn't take off like a rocket, if they shipped 1 mill ... well that's 1 mill sold for them and retailers could deal with the fall out, but I think Capcom knew they'd cash out either way.

I think internally today there probably are a lot of people very happy at Capcom right now.

583k in 2 days would likely mean that by only its 3rd day of release MH3 will have surpassed the LTD sales of MH2 on the PS2 already. By the 4th day you're likely past 700k and that's pretty much seals 1+ million in sales. From Capcom's P.O.V. that shows the MH series is not just a hit on handhelds, but is showing pretty serious growth on the console side too.

 

[Vinci]

I don't know how it could be disappointing, sure the content might not match the PSP versions...

But then you noticed the PSP versions recycled stuff from MH2 and MHP1. Then later MHP2G recycled all the stuff from MHP2 and added a few stuff. In MH3 a good 65% (just being cautious since I haven't played it) is new, most of the monsters are new, that means new armors and weapon designs, new areas, ability to swim etc.. etc... Sucks they took out some weapon types, though.

But anyway it's a MH with a lot of new content (that obviously means stuff not seen in previous games), unless you have some sort of warped nostalgia for the old versions... Or just hate the fact that the Wii got a MH game, then I don't see how you could be disappointed. I don't doubt MH3 will be a long ass game, and people will be playing it for awhile. I really doubt you can see everything there is to see in 20 days of playing online. That's ridiculous hyperbole to me. You might see all the monsters in 20 days maybe, but getting all the armor/weapons, which is what MH is all about, will sure as fuck not take you only 20 days to see. Unless you aren't a human being, then maybe there's a slight possibility.

I always had a general rule that I offered to MMO developers and perhaps it works for something like MH as well. However long you think it will take for someone to do it all in your game, take that amount of time and divide it by five - and that's closer to reality. This measurement is called 'Geek Time.'

 

[faridmon]

Which is kind of silly too because I suspect Capcom was covering their butts a bit here. Just *in case* MH3 on the Wii didn't take off like a rocket, if they shipped 1 mill ... well that's 1 mill sold for them and retailers could deal with the fall out, but I think Capcom knew they'd cash out either way.

I think internally today there probably are a lot of people very happy at Capcom right now.

583k in 2 days would likely mean that by only its 3rd day of release MH3 will have surpassed the LTD sales of MH2 on the PS2 already. By the 4th day you're likely past 700k and that's pretty much seals 1+ million in sales.

wait your saying that MH TRi can sell a million copy? awesome if true

but there was a theory (from Joshoa or Donny, can't remember) saying that its kind of impossible that a game to double its first week sales.

or am I imagining something.

 

[schuelma]

wait your saying that MH TRi can sell a million copy? awesome if true

but there was a theory (from Joshoa or Donny, can't remember) saying that its kind of impossible that a game to double its first week sales.

or ami imagining something.

It's definitely not impossible, but for frontloaded series it often times won't happen.

 

[Soundwave2000]

wait your saying that MH TRi can sell a million copy? awesome if true

but there was a theory (from Joshoa or Donny, can't remember) saying that its kind of impossible that a game to double its first week sales.

or ami imagining something.

The thing you're not taking into account is MH3 only had 2 days for its first week. Most games have a 4-day period to sell during the first week.

So you're likely talking more like 650k-700k in its first 4 days of sales, which you don't have to double to get to 1 mill+.

In either case, I think MH2 did actually come pretty close to doubling its first week sales on PS2.
IIRC it debuted around 350k and finished at 625k or so. And that was pretty front loaded. If the Wii version follows that same pattern its in pretty good territory.

 

[donny2112]

The continued boost in DS sales is some what surprising too. I thought maybe it would've cooled a bit by now.

I think some Dragon Quest gamers had intentionally avoided the DS since it's a handheld, and the DS purchases now are them coming over. I think the switch from console to handheld helped (larger userbase, one person per game copy) and hurt (graphical downgrade, some console elitism) the sales of the game. The result is that it's almost performing 1:1 with DQVIII. :lol

*mind boggles*

.

Also remember that Tri currently only has 3.25 stars on Amazon, which as we know is a reliable indicator of satisfaction (1up actually cited both MH Tri's and DQ IX's Amazon rankings in an article today).

Cannot ... keep ... straight ... face.

Spoiler

lol

 

[faridmon]

It's definitely not impossible, but for frontloaded series it often times won't happen.

The thing you're not taking into account is MH3 only had 2 days for its first week. Most games have a 4-day period to sell during the first week.

So you're likely talking more like 650k-700k in its first 4 days of sales, which you don't have to double to get to 1 mill+.

In either case, I think MH2 did actually come pretty close to doubling its first week sales on PS2.
IIRC it debuted around 350k and finished at 625k or so. And that was pretty front loaded. If the Wii version follows that same pattern its in pretty good territory.

thanks

Spoiler

you learn new thing every day

 

[Road]

I think I would be disappointed somewhat if DQIX didn't become the best selling in the series. I never believed 5 Million was in the cards and always thought that was way too optimistic. DQ is still DQ. But I do maintain that it has the potential to break through DQVII, but it looking iffier with each week.

A lot of people expected Tri to disappoint, but that one's doing a reasonable job of meeting or breaking expectations. DQIX, on the other hand, may not live up to its supposed 5 Million potential.

How so?

It has the best absolute fourth week and the lowest relative drop off. This could be indication that the "DS legs" are starting to take their place and DQIX will eventually sell more than VII.

 

[Soundwave2000]

I'm kinda glad DQIX is selling more in line with previous entries. Don't get me wrong, I think it's selling great and deserves to ... but if it did something crazy like 5-6 million ala NSMB on DS, I think Square-Enix might get the wrong idea and move DQX to the DS or something. But it does look it may have a shot at outselling DQVII ... looks like the "legs" are starting to take hold.

 

[donny2112]

thanks

Spoiler

you learn new thing every day

http://www.japan-gamecharts.com/ps2.php

Take a look at the %s showing how much of the LTD was sold in the first week.

 

[markatisu]

The thing you're not taking into account is MH3 only had 2 days for its first week. Most games have a 4-day period to sell during the first week.

So you're likely talking more like 650k-700k in its first 4 days of sales, which you don't have to double to get to 1 mill+.

In either case, I think MH2 did actually come pretty close to doubling its first week sales on PS2.
IIRC it debuted around 350k and finished at 625k or so. And that was pretty front loaded. If the Wii version follows that same pattern its in pretty good territory.

Seriously, the "first week" will be around 700k most likely and almost all Wii games that are this big have some kind of tail (shit MHG started at around 120 and found its way to almost 250 which is 2x its opening)

Add to that what MH3 really is and you can expect a longer tail than MHG, if it tops out its first real selling week at around 700k I do not think that between now and Dec it wont find another 300k to reach its 1m

What I find interesting is people were wondering just a few months ago if MH3 could even get past 600k and now we are all debating over how it can pass 1m :lol

 

[botticus]

How so?

It has the best absolute fourth week and the lowest relative drop off. This could be indication that the "DS legs" are starting to take their place and DQIX will eventually sell more than VII.

Yeah, it's not unlikely that IX will be tracking back ahead of VII in the next week or two.

 

[test_account]

I think Winning Eleven stands a chance at breaking a million when the World Cup comes around. It would help if the Wii version was released simultaneously though.

Ye, i think that it should be interesting to see how Winning Eleven will sell when the World Cup comes around as you say I dont think that a single consoles/system will sell one million copies alone though, but it seems that Winning Eleven have been released on more gaming systems in the last 2 years or so compared to how it was like 4-5 years ago or so. So maybe Winning Eleven can sell end up selling 1 million copies in total on all the gaming system combined. We will see what happends

After his "The Conduit" prediction nobody should take his predictions seriously

Out of curiousity, what was his "The Conduit" prediction?

Yeah I agree, I had a fear that MH3 on the Wii would only sell about the same LTD as MH2 on the PS2 ... which may seem a bit crazy, but considering how anemic the Wii third party market has been for core-type titles relative to the PS2 to date and its probably not that out there.

The fact that MH3 on the Wii in probably 3 or 4 days is going to topple the entire LTD of Monster Hunter 2 is pretty awesome.

Ye, i do agree that it wasnt necessarily any guarantee that the increased interest in the Monster Hunter games, which seemed to be mostly related to being on a portable gaming system, would traslate into a big increase of interest on the console Monster Hunter games (in this case with Monster Hunter 3 for the Wii) as well. But about that MH3 might sell more than MH2 on the PS2, how comparable are they? In my opinion, the Monster Hunter serie popularity didnt really take off before Monster Hunter Portable 2 though, and MHP2 was released after the PS2 Monster Hunter games.

I dont mean to say that Monster Hunter wasnt pretty popular before MHP2, afterall those Monster Hunter games sold several of hundreds of thousands copies each, but with "really taking off" i mean to sell much past 1 million copies, and MHP2 was the first Monster Hunter game to sell over a million copies at least in Japan. The popularity of the Monster Hunter serie seemed to really take off after the PS2 MH games had been released, at least in my opinion.

But as said, it wasnt necessarily that the console versions of the Monster Hunter games would see a big increase in popularity and sales just because that the portable Monster Hunter games did see big increase in interest and sales.

And i dont mean to say that it isnt awesome that MH3 might outsell MH2's LTD in maybe only 3-4 days just to underline that. I think that this is cool indeed And that MH3 might end up selling like 750k in about 1.5 weeks of sales is a pretty good number in my opinion. But i just wanted to ask how the comparison about MH3 vs MH2 (and MH1 for that matter) sales are when the Monster Hunter popularity seemed to increase alot after when the PS2 Monster Hunter games were released.

EDIT: What i wrote here was more of a general question regarding the MH3 vs MH2 (and maybe MH1 as well) sales, so i didnt mean to single out just what you said, since i know that other people have also mentioned something about the MH3 vs MH2 (and maybe MH1 as well) sales as well

 

[faridmon]

http://www.japan-gamecharts.com/ps2.php

Take a look at the %s showing how much of the LTD was sold in the first week.

thanks

many titles actually doubled their first week sales. interesting.

so I was imagining about the challenge of selling the double of the first week ales.

 

[Soundwave2000]

Is Nintendo planning to ship more MH3 Wii hardware bundles or was that a first week only thing btw?

The other sorta cool thing about MH on Wii is its probably really driven adoption of the Classic Controllers.

 

[Vinci]

Is Nintendo planning to ship more MH3 Wii hardware bundles or was that a first week only thing btw?

The other sorta cool thing about MH on Wii is its probably really driven adoption of the Classic Controllers.

CC Pro that is.

 

[schuelma]

Seriously, the "first week" will be around 700k most likely and almost all Wii games that are this big have some kind of tail (shit MHG started at around 120 and found its way to almost 250 which is 2x its opening)

Where are you getting this 250K number from? The last number I had was 225K.

 

[test_account]

Is Nintendo planning to ship more MH3 Wii hardware bundles or was that a first week only thing btw?

The other sorta cool thing about MH on Wii is its probably really driven adoption of the Classic Controllers.

I think that this is an interesting question. Now that "everyone" (?) has bought the MH3 Wii hardware bundle (assuming that most, if not all, of the MH3 Wii hardware bundles has been sold by now), i wonder how the Wii hardware sales will look in the next 2-3 weeks, and how the black colored Wii will affect the hardware sales as well. I wonder if the Wii hardware sales will stay rather high because of the black colored Wii.

 

[Soundwave2000]

Where are you getting this 250K number from? The last number I had was 225K.

He said almost. Either way his point remains 120k first week to a finish of say 230k is basically doubling your first week sales.

 

[Soundwave2000]

I think that this is an interesting question. Now that "everyone" (?) has bought the MH3 Wii hardware bundle (assuming that most, if not all, of the MH3 Wii hardware bundles has been sold by now), i wonder how the Wii hardware sales will look in the next 2-3 weeks, and how the black colored Wii will affect the hardware sales as well. I wonder if the Wii hardware sales will stay rather high because of the black colored Wii.

I think the Wii will settle in at a baseline around 30k or so in a few weeks. Just a guess though. Console situation in Japan is still pretty tough I think, it's going to take more than just 1-2 games.

The 4-player aspect of New Super Mario Bros. Wii has to be a massive crowd pleaser in Japan I think.

 

[schuelma]

He said almost. Either way his point remains 120k first week to a finish of say 230k is basically doubling your first week sales.

Using Famitsu numbers, it sold 143K first week and currently is at 224K LTD. That's not really doubling your 1st week sales.

 

[Soundwave2000]

Using Famitsu numbers, it sold 143K first week and currently is at 224K LTD. That's not really doubling your 1st week sales.

Still you don't have to double 650k or 700k to get past a million (last time I checked anyway) and MH3 being a brand new game likely will at least trend more like MH2 on the PS2. If it has similar drop-offs to even that it should surpass 1 mill.

 

[schuelma]

Still you don't have to double 650k or 700k to get past a million (last time I checked anyway) and MH3 being a brand new game likely will at least trend more like MH2 on the PS2. If it has similar drop-offs to even that it should surpass 1 mill.

I know, just clarifying that as of now MH G has not doubled its 1st week.

 

[Road]

Worst cases for the series:

MHG (Wii) has a LTD of 157% of the first week;
MH2 (PS2) 155%.

If MH3 follows the same pattern, it will stop at 900~920k.

 

[Soundwave2000]

Worst cases for the series:

MHG (Wii) has a LTD of 157% of the first week;
MH2 (PS2) 155%.

If MH3 follows the same pattern, it will stop at 900~920k.

Are you using the 4-day launch weeks versus the 2-day launch figures for MH3 though?

You make want to extrapolate MH3 to at least 650k in that case to be fair.

 

[test_account]

I think the Wii will settle in at a baseline around 30k or so in a few weeks. Just a guess though. Console situation in Japan is still pretty tough I think, it's going to take more than just 1-2 games.

Ye, a new baseline of 30k for the Wii might sounds possible, i agree Ye, Monster Hunter 3 itself might cause more of a "some weeks hardware bump", but i guess that if MH3 has good legs, maybe that the Wii hardware sales can be increased for a longer period of time than "some weeks"?

The 4-player aspect of New Super Mario Bros. Wii has to be a massive crowd pleaser in Japan I think.

Ye, i almost keep forgetting about New Super Mario Bros for the Wii for some reason. I guess that i might keep forgetting about it because that i havnt checked too much into that game besides some videos over at Gametrailers.com. But i wonder how New Super Mario Bros for the Wii will sell. I think that it can sell pretty good indeed, and also because of the 4-player aspect that you mentioned

 

[Vinci]

Worst cases for the series:

MHG (Wii) has a LTD of 157% of the first week;
MH2 (PS2) 155%.

If MH3 follows the same pattern, it will stop at 900~920k.

And that's definitely the worst case; we haven't actually seen what a full week of sales look like for MH3 and the series has undergone a massive shift in terms of popularity since then.

 

[Road]

Are you using the 4-day launch weeks versus the 2-day launch figures for MH3 though?

You make want to extrapolate MH3 to at least 650k in that case to be fair.

Two days first week and four days first week. Unfortunately it's the only data we have.

I know it's not the best comparison. I did it to illustrate that even if it had the "bad" legs console versions have had, it would still reach 900k.

 

[Mahew]

My guess is there are still plenty of hesitant gamers sitting on the fence about buying a Wii and MH3 and waiting for word of mouth. If it's good, Wii will get a sustained bump and MH3 will have legs. If the game gets a less than good rep, Wii and MH3 will drop quickly.

What is there in upcoming weeks after MH3 to spice the Wii HW in Japan?

 

[AnimeTheme]

We'd better just wait and see. Seriously, a 2-day opening week can't tell much.

 

[Soundwave2000]

My guess is there are still plenty of hesitant gamers sitting on the fence about buying a Wii and MH3 and waiting for word of mouth. If it's good, Wii will get a sustained bump and MH3 will have legs. If the game gets a less than good rep, Wii and MH3 will drop quickly.

What is there in upcoming weeks after MH3 to spice the Wii HW in Japan?

I think MH3 is doing its bit, but I feel like Wii Sports Resort maybe is not pulling as much weight as it should.

I have a feeling Wii Fit Plus will be bigger in Japan comparatively whereas Wii Sports Resort will be the bigger of the two in North America/Europe (look at the Euro charts, WSR has definitely caused the entire Wii platform to ignite it seems).

 

[linsivvi]

Of course, if you don't have Monster Hunter, Dragon Quest, Final Fantasy, or Kingdom Hearts, what are you to do?

Considering a Nintendo console has never gotten any one of those kinds of IPs ... it shows a big name IP can sell.

What?????

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

DQIX's a fucking awesome game and Enix put in a lot of hooks to keep you from trading it in. I don't think it's going as high as Wada thinks it is, but I would be shocked if it wasn't leggier than usual.

Could you remind us what he/the company thinks?

But I do maintain that it has the potential to break through DQVII, but it looking iffier with each week.

I'd disagree with this. Week 2 and week 3 didn't make it look like a "VII buster", but since week 4 was apparently significantly better than what VII or VIII did, things are looking up.


I know I already made a reply to Jonnyram earlier about how games that start off selling like MH3 has tend to hit a million, but this has just caused me to have the related thought: what are the best starts for games that DIDN'T hit a million? Here are games with first week sales between 500K and 999,999. Four of those didn't reach 1 million, but Onimusha gets off the hook because a budget release pushed it over. This leaves

Game: First week (Last known total)

Dynasty Warriors 5: 561K (918K)
World Soccer Winning Eleven 9: 552K (923K)
Dissidia: Final Fantasy: 504K (890K)

Dissidia being recent, it still has some shot of making it out of this group. The other two failed to make any Top 500s past 2005, so any gains since are negligible.

 

[Soundwave2000]

We'd better just wait and see. Seriously, a 2-day opening week can't tell much.

Actually you can tell quite a bit.

I was thinking 400k-450k first two days would be OK but dissapointing

500k first two days ... good shape for 1 million

550k+ = quite good shape for 1 million+

That was sorta the barometer I had. I'm assuming it will trend like MH2 on the PS2. Now if it grows legs beyond that ala the portable versions that's another can of worms.

 

[Vinci]

See, Joshua. Something comes up? Post a graph. Instant win.

 

[charlequin]

If anything, this proves that yes, the Wii is a viable platform for third party brands with good production values and good marketing.

I agree. While I've talked a lot about the problems with Wii's performance, and the various good reasons for publishers to avoid committing to it now (as opposed to 2006, when there was no good reason not to commit to the Wii but publishers ignored it anyway), this is a very positive result for the system. It helps establish (much like MH did on PSP) that titles can sell in high volume on this system, and that a properly developed, dedicated entry can clean up on Wii (and right now face almost no real competition.)

On PSP, MH was the shock to the system that convinced other publishers to give the system another shot. Let's see if a strong MH performance will lead to a similar effect on Wii....

(It's ridiculous to try to draw conclusions about "Wii vs. PS3" though, to all the people who are doing that. :lol There's no reasonable target of comparison here.)

I don't think that people are suggesting that the PSP (and its separate screen for each player) is selling MHP, but rather that it's the other way around.

I'd actually suggest that it goes both ways (which you hint at in the rest of your post.) The software is the first-mover in a sense, but both feed into each other. PSP became a more popular platform because of the draw of MHP, which in turn helped catapult MHP2 to drastically higher heights.

Well on this board a lot of people used to hound the DS for not being able to sell 3rd party games.

That changed after Final Fantasy III in a lot of ways.

That's true, but to put too much emphasis on FF3 alone is mistaken, IMO. Quite a few third-party games came in to pick up where Nintendo's own titles were leaving off by 2006, and we saw a very smooth transition from a first-party supported system to one that was largely selling on the back of current third-party hits. More importantly, the third-parties themselves never really were gone: they committed to DS with fairly big titles right away and those titles almost all bettered the sales of their GBA equivalents.

I do agree that a single huge title can "break open" the market so that medium-scale titles can do well in its wake, though, whereas I think the Wii has demonstrated that medium-scale titles launched into a void will probably underperform.

The Wii (or frankly, any console) can build a market for all types of games.

I think that's going too far. In a series of ludicrously wordy arguments, gerg and I settled on one thing we could agree on: there was basically no way the Wii could ever build a good market for FPSes, and I think the principles there can apply to other genres as well.

That said, are there a lot of popular Japanese genres that I think could never have conceivably done well on Wii? No. I've been on record before as believing that at least RPGs, fighters, whatever the hell Musou games are, and sports titles could all have done well on Wii, and that committing this stuff to Wii right away would have been an actively good move.

I think if you would have told people 2 years ago that it would sell 583K in 2 days most people would have been impressed.

The first big argument I remember getting into about MH3's sales potential took the form "Over/under on 500k LTD?" :lol

 

[Busaiku]

Dynasty Warriors 5: 561K (918K)
World Soccer Winning Eleven 9: 552K (923K)
Dissidia: Final Fantasy: 504K (890K)

Dissidia being recent, it still has some shot of making it out of this group. The other two failed to make any Top 500s past 2005, so any gains since are negligible.

Looking at the recent performance (its last chart appearance to the 100 release), I don't think it's gonna quite hit 1 million.