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[cvxfreak]

AniHawk, can we switch avatars again?

 

[farnham]

pretty good numbers for sengoku 3

i thought it would tank badly

is this because of the sudden increase of popularity in jidaigeki stuff..?

or did nsmb help to spur sales..?

 

[mclem]

Anecdotal evidence but absolutely true; out of the eight people I know who say they like Legend of Dragoon seven people are Sony fanboys or recovering Sony fanboys.

The eighth you ask? Lost his virginity to a girl he lent out the game to.

Legend of Dragoon is shit.

You're sitting there saying it's shit, I'm sitting here thinking I like them odds.

 

[Man God]

You're sitting there saying it's shit, I'm sitting here thinking I like them odds.

He's the only one out of the lot whose positive opinion on the game I respect! :lol

 

[Stumpokapow]

But that just sounds like a problem for local split-screen in general, rather than having anything to do with causing extra problem for online play?

Indeed. My wording was a little awkward but that was my point. Splitscreening is hard. Local co-op is not. Online is not. Combining local and online is not.

It's seen two, and without looking back at the specifics I do remember using the term "Yakubump", so they must've done something.

Well it's worth noting that whether they intended it or not, Kenzan was not a mainline release. It was set in a different time period, and it appears to have been a one-off.

 

[schuelma]

I think PS3 got a bump up to 40K land for a few weeks with Yakuza 3 and RE 5 hitting in consecutive weeks.

 

[Pureauthor]

Explanation of my statement, since it seems like even people who should know what's going on don't ...

*stuff*

Man I haven't had to pull this thing out since people started accepting that PS3 sales were terrible. People still remember it?

 

[tebiro boy]

Is there still a database aggregating historical sales data? I remember a while back some GAF people were building a kind of 'Sales Age' site... is that still the case? Anyone have the URL?

 

[apujanata]

Lies, Legend of Dragoon was great.

Since I managed to finish Legend of Dragoon, even if it is not great (it is great, IMO), it is entertaining to say the least.

On the other hand, I didn't finish FFX-2, FFXII, FFIX, FFVIII, which is why I am not going to bother buying PS3 to play FF13.

BTW, I don't think I am Sony fanboy, since I didn't have PS3 (I did have PS1 and PS2 and GCN, but not N64).

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Thanks for the feedback as usual, in the end I think we owe 360 some presence given Mushihimesama and Assassins Creed 2 results so Modern Warfare 2 joins the show. So next predictions will cover:

[NDS] Luminous Arc 3: Eyes (Marvelous) -
[PSP] Naruto Shippuden: Narutimate Accel 3 (Namco Bandai) -
[PSP] Winning Eleven 2010 (Konami) -
[PS2] Winning Eleven 2010 (Konami) -
[WII] Tales of Graces (Namco Bandai) -
[PS3] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Square-Enix) -
[360] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Square-Enix) -


Thanks Road for posting the 2ch leak for last week 1st day sales too.

 

[velvet_nitemare]

I wonder what's up with the Grandia franchise. What was the LTD of Grandia 3? Anyone?

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Is there still a database aggregating historical sales data? I remember a while back some GAF people were building a kind of 'Sales Age' site... is that still the case? Anyone have the URL?

Other people maintain lists of their own and put some things online, but I think the biggest GAF-based resources would be Moor-Angol's Japan-GameCharts for lists of best sellers per platform, and my Garaph which keeps the weekly data and has various search/graph utilities.

 

[Spiegel]

Joshua, I just catched a mistake on your database.

http://garaph.info/gamesearch.php?t...d1=&sltd2=&gameid=&orderby=&res1=&res2=&opt=1

- The psp game didn't chart in the Famitsu Top 100
- The ds game should have the 71k LTD

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Oh boy. Putting in this week's Famitsu numbers, I've noticed another inconsistency. For Mario Kart Wii, the site claims two weeks ago it was ranked #31. However, two weeks ago they listed it as #30.

Joshua, I just catched a mistake on your database.

Thanks, makes sense.

 

[donny2112]

For Mario Kart Wii, the site claims two weeks ago it was ranked #31. However, two weeks ago they listed it as #30.

*pumps fist*

Yes! That means Love Plus did make the Top 30. That explains the GDM/GEIMIN's data inconsistency with the online data.

Edit:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=18585827#post18585827 and Road's response.

 

[charlequin]

I am 100% sure SO4 on PS3 will sell more than 200k. Okay, not 100% sure, but I'm pretty sure. If not, I'd play the game again as punishment.

Don't let your fingers write checks your ass can't cash, Kev.

o stay with MH3, even if it did respectable (it's the best selling 3rd party game on home consoles this generation right?), it still performed (a lot) less than initial expectations when the title was first announced, or when the final predictions a week before release were made.

That is like... the opposite of true. People were debating whether the game would sink to more like 300k or rise up to more like 600k LTD not long after the announcement.

I still have that game in its original wrapper

It's much better that way than if you take the wrapper off.

The eighth you ask? Lost his virginity to a girl he lent out the game to.

That's the first good reason to like the game I've ever heard! :lol

I know you tend to have a pretty good eye for these things, but there seems a lot less reason for some switch now than there ever was for the moku train, and we know that didn't pan out. Wii hardware isn't selling what it used to? DS is a very strong platform for Dragon Quest? A new Dragon Quest sells in the ballpark of 4 million? None of these things are significantly changed from when the platform announcement was made a year ago.

I tend to agree. The decision to do this in the first place almost certainly involved, among other things, the assumption that the DS would be replaced by an (as yet unproven) successor by 2012, while the Wii would still be effectively a current system, and I think that is still a quite safe assumption.

 

[Y2Kev]

Don't let your fingers write checks your ass can't cash, Kev.

No worries. I have a most capable ass.

 

[cvxfreak]

Had to do some shopping again and wanted to reaffirm that NSMB Wii is going to be huge.

 

[nextgeneration]

Had to do some shopping again and wanted to reaffirm that NSMB Wii is going to be huge.

Awesome. Can't wait to see first week NSMB and wii numbers.

 

[king zell]

Had to do some shopping again and wanted to reaffirm that NSMB Wii is going to be huge.

anything on pokepark cvxfreak?

 

[Terrell]

Had to do some shopping again and wanted to reaffirm that NSMB Wii is going to be huge.

Is it even remotely possible that NSMBWii could... break 1 million for the week? Cuz that would be epic.

 

[Hero of Legend]

anything on pokepark cvxfreak?

And an update on SW3 would be nice.

Oh, and hardware.

 

[M°°nblade]

Since I managed to finish Legend of Dragoon, even if it is not great (it is great, IMO), it is entertaining to say the least.

On the other hand, I didn't finish FFX-2, FFXII, FFIX, FFVIII, which is why I am not going to bother buying PS3 to play FF13.

BTW, I don't think I am Sony fanboy, since I didn't have PS3 (I did have PS1 and PS2 and GCN, but not N64).

Legend of Dragoon was definitely not shit. Average or above average imo.
It got a high score on the rip-off o' meter but the turn based combat had a nice arcady touch like shadow hearts (which also happens to be an underrated RPG) and both the in game graphics and the CGI cut scenes were of high quality for a PS1 game.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Reading sinobi talking about Modern Warfare 2, he gives figures for the first one... 177k on PS3, 75k on 360. Should be pretty up to date (and combining re-releases of course), but its surprising how close it is to Grand Theft Auto IV (211k PS3, 56k 360), biggest western title this gen and such.

 

[schuelma]

Is it even remotely possible that NSMBWii could... break 1 million for the week? Cuz that would be epic.

That would be a huge weekend multiplier for such a big title. I think 900K or so is the best case scenario.

More interesting to me will be how it carries Wii hardware and other software.

 

[Culex]

That would be a huge weekend multiplier for such a big title. I think 900K or so is the best case scenario.

More interesting to me will be how it carries Wii hardware and other software.

I can't think of any instance where a game sold more than double it's opening sales, after it's opening day for the week.

So it's looks like it won't sell more than 850k for the full week.

 

[schuelma]

I can't think of any instance where a game sold more than double it's opening sales, after it's opening day for the week.

So it's looks like it won't sell more than 850k for the full week.

I'm pretty sure it has happened. Heck for NSMB DS whatever source sinobi used had a 422K/900K opening day/week. Stuff like the first Mario and Sonic tripled its opening day, and I feel like Friend Collection probably had a big multiplier as well.

 

[duckroll]

Need 900k, don't want to be last place on the predictions! :lol

 

[shinshero]

Need 900k, don't want to be last place on the predictions! :lol

Its looking more and more grim. :lol

 

[schuelma]

Need 900k, don't want to be last place on the predictions! :lol

I'm pretty sure you won't be..I think there were some far out NSMB Wii predictions both ways (one of which was my own).

 

[duckroll]

I'm pretty sure you won't be..I think there were some far out NSMB Wii predictions both ways (one of which was my own).

WindYoshi doesn't count! :lol

 

[schuelma]

WindYoshi doesn't count! :lol

Well, my 1.1millon does..and I think onken and a few others predicted 500K.

So I think you are safe.

 

[Culex]

I'm pretty sure it has happened. Heck for NSMB DS whatever source sinobi used had a 422K/900K opening day/week. Stuff like the first Mario and Sonic tripled its opening day, and I feel like Friend Collection probably had a big multiplier as well.

Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh i'm trying to make Duckroll sweat!

 

[shinshero]

Well, my 1.1millon does..and I think onken and a few others predicted 500K.

So I think you are safe.

Damn! I was going to predict 800K (similar to Super Smash Bros, seemed like a safe bet). But because of Duckroll, I couldn't. -_-

 

[Man God]

800.001 Bob! :lol

 

[duckroll]

Okay, I'm a little bored, so I thought I'll see if anyone has any opinions on this. I've been crunching some tasty numbers and here's my outlook for the first week figure for major titles in the next few months:

Dec:
Tales of Graces - 180k
Final Fantasy XIII - 1.2 million
Zelda Spirit Tracks - 300k

Jan:
End of Eternity PS3 - 190k
End of Eternity 360 - 80k
Kingdom Hearts Birth by Sleep - 500k
Valkyria Chronicles 2 - 160k
Dragon Quest VI - 1 million

Mar:
Metal Gear Solid Peace Walker - 460k


Am I crazy? Am I insane? Feedback?

 

[shinshero]

Okay, I'm a little bored, so I thought I'll see if anyone has any opinions on this. I've been crunching some tasty numbers and here's my outlook for the first week figure for major titles in the next few months:

Dec:
Tales of Graces - 180k
Final Fantasy XIII - 1.2 million
Zelda Spirit Tracks - 300k

Jan:
End of Eternity PS3 - 190k
End of Eternity 360 - 80k
Kingdom Hearts Birth by Sleep - 500k
Valkyria Chronicles 2 - 160k
Dragon Quest VI - 1 million

Mar:
Metal Gear Solid Peace Walker - 460k


Am I crazy? Am I insane? Feedback?

KH: BBS definitely needs to be higher. I say FF XIII needs to be higher as well. MGS: Peace Walker is about right.

End of Eternity PS3 should be higher (depending on the quality of the game).

 

[duckroll]

I don't think "quality of game" really matters when we're talking about first week sales. Maybe "quality of demo" though, I'll agree with that.

Okay I just noticed there are some releases I missed out:

Feb:
Super Robot Wars OG Saga Exceed - 110k
REGINLEIV - 40k

Mar:
Hokuto no Ken Musou PS3 - 200k
Hokuto no Ken Musou 360 - 30k

 

[Chris1964]

I have complete picture only for the Dec titles. Everything else is just a first estimate.

Dec:
Tales of Graces - 180k - a little low
Final Fantasy XIII - 1.2 million - a little high
Zelda Spirit Tracks - 300k - a little low

Jan:
End of Eternity PS3 - 190k - high
End of Eternity 360 - 80k - high
Kingdom Hearts Birth by Sleep - 500k - high
Valkyria Chronicles 2 - 160k - agree
Dragon Quest VI - 1 million - agree

Feb:
Super Robot Wars OG Saga Exceed - 110k - agree
REGINLEIV - 40k - agree

Mar:
Hokuto no Ken Musou PS3 - 200k - too early for this
Hokuto no Ken Musou 360 - 30k - too early for this
Metal Gear Solid Peace Walker - 460k - too early for this but for now I agree

 

[shinshero]

I have complete picture only for the Dec titles. Everything else is just a first estimate.

Dec:
Tales of Graces - 180k - a little low
Final Fantasy XIII - 1.2 million - a little high
Zelda Spirit Tracks - 300k - a little low

Jan:
End of Eternity PS3 - 190k - high
End of Eternity 360 - 80k - high
Kingdom Hearts Birth by Sleep - 500k - high
Valkyria Chronicles 2 - 160k - agree
Dragon Quest VI - 1 million - agree

Feb:
Super Robot Wars OG Saga Exceed - 110k - agree
REGINLEIV - 40k - agree

Mar:
Hokuto no Ken Musou PS3 - 200k - too early for this
Hokuto no Ken Musou 360 - 30k - too early for this
Metal Gear Solid Peace Walker - 460k - too early for this but for now I agree

Didn't Crisis Core do like 600K+ first week?

 

[BlazingDarkness]

I'd put Birth By Sleep higher than that
EoE higher also

those ones i notice at a glance

 

[thestopsign]

Okay, I'm a little bored, so I thought I'll see if anyone has any opinions on this. I've been crunching some tasty numbers and here's my outlook for the first week figure for major titles in the next few months:

Dec:
Tales of Graces - 180k
Final Fantasy XIII - 1.2 million
Zelda Spirit Tracks - 300k

Jan:
End of Eternity PS3 - 190k
End of Eternity 360 - 80k
Kingdom Hearts Birth by Sleep - 500k
Valkyria Chronicles 2 - 160k
Dragon Quest VI - 1 million

Mar:
Metal Gear Solid Peace Walker - 460k


Am I crazy? Am I insane? Feedback?

Bold = Low
Underline = High

The others look right since these are all first weeks.

 

[u_neek]

Hopefully, FFXIII will do ~1.5m first week though it's probably a bit high.

 

[ethelred]

REGINLEIV - 40k

Are these predictions for first week or LTDx2?

 

[Chris1964]

Didn't Crisis Core do like 600K+ first week?

No.

Famitsu
2 . [PSP] Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII (Square Enix) - 470.152 / 470.152

Media Create
1 . [PSP] Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII (Square Enix) - 486.659 / 486.659

 

[Chris1964]

In case someone doesn't know it, Birth by Sleep is a Saturday release.
First week is two days of sales.

 

[BlazingDarkness]

In case someone doesn't know it, Birth by Sleep is a Saturday release.
First week is two days of sales.

oh

 

[duckroll]

Here are my predictions for this coming week:

[NDS] Luminous Arc 3: Eyes (Marvelous) - 35k
[PSP] Naruto Shippuden: Narutimate Accel 3 (Namco Bandai) - 70k
[PSP] Winning Eleven 2010 (Konami) - 110k
[PS2] Winning Eleven 2010 (Konami) - 65k
[WII] Tales of Graces (Namco Bandai) - 180k
[PS3] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Square-Enix) - 90k
[360] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Square-Enix) - 35k

Are these predictions for first week or LTDx2?

First week. Although, I just remembered it's a 6800yen game. I think I'll revise that to 25-30k. I expect the lifetime to be about 50-60k at least. The word of mouth should be interesting.

 

[schuelma]

FF13 and ToG seems close to what I'm going to predict.

Reginliev will be lucky to hit 20K first week.

 

[duckroll]

FF13 and ToG seems close to what I'm going to predict.

Reginliev will be lucky to hit 20K first week.

I'm confident it will do way better than Sin and Punishment 2. Especially in the LTD.