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Media Create Sales: Nov 23-29, 2009

It will actually sell minus 400k copies next week so that it barely outsells Super Paper Mario's LTD. That's just how 2D Marios are selling on Wii.

/edit/ Aww, I didn't want to be on top with my terrible post. D:
 

duckroll

Member
Chris1964 said:
Nah, it will exactly what City Folk sold after its first week. 2M LTD is the best scenario and it will take years to reach that target.

Oh. I see. That's too bad then. Nintendo had a good run. Hopefully NSMB2 sells better on the PSP next year.

slaughterking said:
/edit/ Aww, I didn't want to be on top with my terrible post. D:

Don't worry, you have lots of company up here. :)
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
First week (and the following weeks) sales prove what most of us already knew. 2D Mario is strong everywhere, handheld, home console or even cellphone.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Something tells me (I'm 101% sure unless there is shortage) that it will be the top selling game and the following week.
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
Chris1964 said:
Something tells me (I'm 101% sure unless there is shortage) that it will be the top selling game and the following week.

Yeah nothing else should come close. And I'll predict that it will regain the spot the week after FF13.
 

duckroll

Member
Chris1964 said:
Something tells me (I'm 101% sure unless there is shortage) that it will be the top selling game and the following week.

There's nothing out this week aside from ToG, so it should easily be the top selling game until FFXIII.
 

duckroll

Member
schuelma said:
Yeah nothing else should come close. And I'll predict that it will regain the spot the week after FF13.

It'll be very close the week after FFXIII, so I'll say it's too close to call right now. We should eventually have a special prediction week for FFXIII Wk2 vs NSMBW Wk4 just for kicks. The week after that, NSMBW should easily reclaim the crown though.
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
Road said:
Very good.

Now to the hardware. 100k or burst. =P


This could be me reading too much into things, but if we saw a huge huge hardware number I feel like it would have been in this first report.

I'll stick with 75K-80K.
 

onken

Member
duckroll said:
Don't worry, maybe we can talk to Ichirou and convince him you actually meant to predict first day numbers.

Yeeeeeeeah that's what I meant :lol

Nah, I'm glad it's done well, happy to be wrong in fact. Glad to see the consoles still kicking :)
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
slaughterking said:
It's actually day 2, 3 and 4. And no, that is still not common at all, but good weekend growth is much more common with games that have such a wide audience as Mario.
More than doubling its first day sales is pretty outstanding, though.
schuelma said:
Going by the first day number sinobi reported, it had an absolutely amazing weekend (this is for days 1-4, not 1-2), with better sales than Galaxy, Mario Kart, and NSMB DS.

With this weekend I'd guess it will get past 2 million by the end of the year.
Thanks, I thought that seemed unusually great. Forgot this was 4 day title also.
 

Brofist

Member
mclem said:
If this has legs - and signs point to yes - it's going to have *serious* legs.

Wasn't it NSMB DS that pretty much signalled the DS turnaround from quirky, interesting novelty machine to all-consuming sales monster?
No I think that was Nintendogs.
 
Pretty amazing sales for Nsmbw. It should top 2million by year's end. What I'm more curious about is whether it actually has any long term, positive effect on the wii hardware sales. I guess that's a wait and see!

Btw when does Japan get Zelda ds?
 

Man God

Non-Canon Member
AniHawk said:
But there was already a Mario on the system so NSMBW probably won't do that well.

True that, Mario is King of platforming brand decay. Rachet and Clank ain't got nothing on that.
 

Road

Member
If MH3 and SMG manage to reach 1 million within the year, the Wii will have 5 new million sellers in 2008 -- Wii Sports Resort, Wii Fit Plus and New Super Mario Bros. Wii. (Edit: 6 if we count Animal Crossing).

And thing is fucked. Can you imagine if it weren't?
 

farnham

Banned
how did sengoku musou 3 do in its first week

the first day 80k something sales seemed at least better then expected
 

Laguna

Banned
Nintendo delivers again. That´s what happens when your product is good and is backed up with good advertising. I´m also very interested in Samurais Warriors performance that´s another example how it´s done and it´s really telling that it completely destroys Crystal Bearers.
 

ilbambino

Member
Well, seems i was way off with my NSMB Wii prediction.

What was NSMB DS drop off in the 3 following weeks after its launch? I know those will be hardly a good indicator, considering the season, but it is an starting point.
 
ilbambino said:
Well, seems i was way off with my NSMB Wii prediction.

What was NSMB DS drop off in the 3 following weeks after its launch? I know those will be hardly a good indicator, considering the season, but it is an starting point.

NSMB DS didn't go under 100k for the next 10 weeks or so.

2nd Week:
01 NDS New Super Mario Bros - 334208 / 1233726

3rd Week:
1. DS New Super Mario Bros. - 244,882 / 1,478,608

4th Week:
1. (DS, Nintendo) New Super Mario Brothers - 200,037 / 1,678,646

Anyways, I think you get the point, the game had phenomenal legs.
 
duckroll said:
Dragon Quest VI - 1 million
I know it's the first remake and IX has expanded DQ on DS even more, but that's still a pretty big jump over the 600-700K IV and V did.
Metal Gear Solid Peace Walker - 460k
And I know this is a bigger effort, but that would be outselling all previous MG PSP games in one week, and putting it right in the range of what 2-4 opened at.
MGS4

duckroll said:
Before Crisis Core was released, there were pretty much zero Final Fantasy games on the PSP.
Excluding Bests or improved editions there were 3 before and 1 since. Though those 3 before were all ports/remakes.
slaughterking said:
NSMB Wii did 936,734 first week. That makes it the best performing Wii game.
And at least within the scope of what Garaph covers, it's the first game with Mario in the title to pass 900K in its first week. EDIT: To expand, it's higher than any Nintendo-published game on Garaph, thanks to the existence of Pokémon as a slightly-separate publisher.
mclem said:
Wasn't it NSMB DS that pretty much signalled the DS turnaround from quirky, interesting novelty machine to all-consuming sales monster?
In the US it was around the time of NSMB/Lite that things really blew up. In Japan it was more Nintendogs time when DS started doing consistently better than PSP, and holidays of that year (Brain Age 2/Animal Crossing/Mario Kart) when things really blew up. NSMB was surfing on a tsunami half a year later.

Based on the latest Famitsu hardware numbers...
PSP comparisons: After 259 weeks, PSP is where PS2 was at 199.6 (+0.2) weeks (December 25, 2003), where DS was at 106.2 (+0.1) weeks (December 12, 2006), and where GBA was at 180.5 (+1.0) weeks (September 1, 2004).

X360 comparisons: After 207 weeks, X360 is where GCN was at 21.6 (+0.2) weeks (February 7, 2002), where PS3 was at 43.4 (+0.2) weeks (September 5, 2007), and where Wii was at 6.3 (+0.0) weeks (January 9, 2007).

PS3 comparisons: After 159 weeks, PS3 is where PS2 was at 61.1 (+0.5) weeks (April 30, 2001), where PSP was at 88.7 (+0.7) weeks (August 18, 2006), where GCN was at 221.4 (+4.0) weeks (December 7, 2005), and where Wii was at 52.2 (+0.6) weeks (November 26, 2007).

Wii comparisons: After 156 weeks, Wii is where GBA was at 105.2 (+0.2) weeks (March 24, 2003), where DS was at 80.6 (+0.2) weeks (June 15, 2006), where PS2 was at 126.5 (+0.3) weeks (August 1, 2002), and where PSP was at 174.3 (+0.2) weeks (April 12, 2008).

PSPgo comparisons: After 4 weeks, PSPgo is where GBm was at 0.5 (+0.1) weeks (September 14, 2005).

At this point it was my intent to replace the DSi comparison with a DSiLL comparison, but since it looks like Famitsu will normally be combining them that's not a very good option.

Based on this week's Media Create hardware numbers...
DS vs PSP: Weekly shares of 72.3 / 27.7 bring total shares to 68.3 / 31.7. If DS stopped selling and PSP continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 357.5 weeks (October 6, 2016).

X360 vs PS3: Weekly shares of 7.3 / 92.7 bring total shares to 23.1 / 76.9. If PS3 stopped selling and X360 continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 742.2 weeks (February 20, 2024).

PS3 vs Wii: Weekly shares of 49.9 / 50.1 stop PS3's twelve weeks on top and bring total shares to 30.8 / 69.2. If Wii stopped selling and PS3 continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 104.9 weeks (December 4, 2011).

Week over week, DS comes down from the LL bump, the ~40K systems start to see the holiday effect, and nobody cares about PS2/X360.
X360



Through the first forty-eight weeks of the year, overall sales are down. However, the systems can be split into camps of 3 up and 3 down. Here's how the year-to-date year-over-year percents stand as of now.

Wii: -46.4%
DS family: +7.3%
PS2: -55.8%
PS3: +54.4%
PSP family: -42.2%
X360: +24.6%

Home hardware: -21.6%
Portable hardware: -18.2%

Nintendo hardware: -16.4%
Sony hardware: -25.9%

Sum of all hardware: -19.5%

Last year:
0.1


This year:
0.1
 

gkryhewy

Member
I think Mario's going to have monster numbers (outperforming consensus expectations) in all territories.

On Amazon (yes, I know, lol) it's been the number 1 seller since the week before Black Friday, even when they raised the price from 46.99 to full retail, and even when it was sold out from Amazon and available only through Target on Amazon. They've also raised the price on WF+ from 89.99 to 94.99, then 97.99, now 99.96. Return of Wii software scalping coming by xmas? :lol
 
I'm calling it now, we're going to see Super Mario Kart Wii for the system. Nintendo has proven with Wii Fit+ and Wii Sports Resport that sequels will sell well and actually drive hardware if the content and price is right. With such a large userbase I don't see why Nintendo wouldn't give it a go.
 
gkrykewy said:
Dude, what? I hope you mean another one :lol
The first Mario Kart was called SMK, but the Wii one isn't and since nostalgia is selling NSMBW, I thought calling the next one SMKW would make sense. Nintendo also likes to stay away from direct sequel numbering these days.
 

gkryhewy

Member
I see. I'm not sure that "Super Mario Kart" has the same nostalgic draw as "Super Mario Bros", given that the prior iteration on Wii without the "Super" is (I'm pretty sure) the highest selling iteration in franchise history, by a longshot.

You might be onto something with a MK sequel on Wii, but on the other hand, the first game continues to move big numbers.

I would also love to see a new 2D Zelda, but that's probably not happening.
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
Now we have to wait 2 days to get numbers for the other releases and hardware. :(
 

onken

Member
C.T. said:
You think Tenbatsu doesnt know MH3 sales? come on...

Am I really supposed to remember everyone's username and posting history just in case they start fake-posting? Really?

gkrykewy said:
I would also love to see a new 2D Zelda, but that's probably not happening.

Oh don't tease me :(
 
gkrykewy said:
I see. I'm not sure that "Super Mario Kart" has the same nostalgic draw as "Super Mario Bros", given that the prior iteration on Wii without the "Super" is (I'm pretty sure) the highest selling iteration in franchise history, by a longshot.
Worldwide, I don't know. Japan, pretty sure it's a solid #3, though it had the fastest start.

The Mario Kart series has always been "Mario Kart" plus a system differentator or subtitle so I doubt SMKW would be an obvious title, but that's a pretty minor part of BL's main prediction that it will exist.
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
onken said:
Am I really supposed to remember everyone's username and posting history just in case they start fake-posting? Really?


But its Tenbatsu!!
 

gkryhewy

Member
JoshuaJSlone said:
The Mario Kart series has always been "Mario Kart" plus a system differentator or subtitle so I doubt SMKW would be an obvious title, but that's a pretty minor part of BL's main prediction that it will exist.

But how would it be differentiated from MKW in a "retro" direction? Back to Mode 7?

Completely unrelated, but don't want to make another thread: Is the CC Pro a good purchase? Any word on whether NOA will be releasing it?
 
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