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[kswiston]

Got reliable market research that backs up the lack of adult owners of Wiis, as you imply?

I never implied that Wii lacks adult owners. There is a difference between Nintendo dominating the under 13 gaming demographic, and Nintendo exclusively catering to the under 13 gaming demographic.


Let's quote Jokeropia from a few pages back:

Actually, it's almost exactly 50/50.

As you can see, there are plenty of Wii owners at any age. However, do you see that big spike in the ages 7-12 section of the graph? When do you figure most of those Wii owners get their systems? When I was 7-12, the only times my parents bought something for me that was over $40-50 was on my Birthday and on Christmas.

 

[Byakuya769]

So many asses that need kicking it's not even funny.

Don't even know where to start so indeed I'm not even going to bother today.

Coward.

Spoiler

do it.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

It doesn't need legs to sell 1.5 million. It would need to be a total disaster in terms of supply or demand (or both) for it to sell less than 1.5 million in 3 weeks.

If week 1 sales are Z, then by the end of week three Final Fantasy X was at 1.18Z, X-2 was at 1.18Z, and XII was at 1.17Z. If XIII follows the same pattern (which is of course not guaranteed), then a first week of around 1.28 million could reach 1.5 by the third.

No, didn't you hear? Versus and Agito aren't spinoffs. They're all FF13, even though they're named differently they're all the same game. Think of it as how, like, in Christianity, God and Jesus and the Holy Spirit are all God even though they're different. FF13 doesn't have any spinoffs, it just has Jesus (Versus, the game that will bring unto the PS3 its salvation) and the Holy Spirit (Agito).

This is probably the clearest explanation I've seen.

Because the Wii always sells well during the holidays and if PS3 didn't have FF13 I don't think it would be doing what it is doing in December right now.

Wii sold consistently well all year round before this year. It's not tracking consistently to begin with, right?

Here's 2007. Wii has a bigger end-of-year bump relative to its earlier sales than we see with PS3.

In 2008 Wii sold "less well" in general, but the same end-of-year bump exists.

Where has it worn off?

Has there been a week yet with disappointing PS3 sales?

I'm not here to quantify disappoint, but certainly the amount of increase over what it was doing a year before is less since 2008 PS3 got out of its own rut and entered the holiday season.

 

[Chris1964]

Chris,

I ran across some dusty, old MC top 30 data on IGN. For instance: http://psx.ign.com/articles/082/082137p1.html

I haven't checked for how long it was being updated, though. Also, some weeks are missing (or I couldn't find them at a first glance). Not sure how useful it would be for your database.

Cool, thanks. I'll check them when I find time.

Has to be the "PS3 will be at sub 10k levels by November" crowd pulling this gem out their asses.

I see you bring this up almost at every Media Create thread, but what you forget is that even you, after second week sales of PS3, had predicted that it could fall below 20k in November or even early December.

 

[Brofist]

Cool, thanks. I'll check them when I find time.


I see you bring this up almost at every Media Create thread, but what you forget is that even you, after second week sales of PS3, had predicted that it could fall below 20k in November or even early December.

Damn straight I bring it up every MC topic. I'll have to retire it from next week in favor of making fun of those who
expected Wii to outsell PS3 FFXIII week on a weekly basis.

I did say I could see PS3 hitting sub 20k, but I would have given it low odds of happening at best.

 

[starship]

Predictions:

[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st day - 925k
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st week - 1,150k
[WII] New Super Mario Bros Wii (Nintendo) - 3rd week - 230k
PS3 Hardware - 145k
WII Hardware - 170k

 

[Chris1964]

Predictions:

[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st day - 850k
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st week - 1,200k
[WII] New Super Mario Bros Wii (Nintendo) - 3rd week - 400k
PS3 Hardware - 180k
WII Hardware - 170k

 

[Nirolak]

Might as well give it a shot.

Predictions:

[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st day - 875k
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st week - 1.275k
[WII] New Super Mario Bros Wii (Nintendo) - 3rd week - 385k
PS3 Hardware - 190k
WII Hardware - 165k

 

[duckroll]

Predictions:

FFXIII First Day - 845k
FFXIII First Week - 1.146 million
NSMBW Third Week - 327k

Wii - 131k
PS3 - 157k

 

[nextgeneration]

Predictions:

FFXIII First Day - 750k
FFXIII First Week - 995k
NSMBW -350k

ps3 - 135k
wii - 125k

 

[jj984jj]

Predictions:
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st day - 927k
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st week - 1.24m
[WII] New Super Mario Bros Wii (Nintendo) - 3rd week - 265k
PS3 Hardware - 182k
WII Hardware - 132k

 

[fanboi]

Never done this... but here we go.

[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st day - 1.0m
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st week - 1.3m
[WII] New Super Mario Bros Wii (Nintendo) - 3rd week - 255k
PS3 Hardware - 170k
WII Hardware - 120k

 

[Blablurn]

[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st day - 1.01k
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st week - 1.345k
[WII] New Super Mario Bros Wii (Nintendo) - 3rd week - 364k
PS3 Hardware - 194k
WII Hardware - 134k

 

[ksamedi]

I'll join for once with the predictions:

FFXIII First Day - 900k
FFXIII First Week - 1.2 million
NSMBW Third Week - 400k

Wii - 200k
PS3 - 200k

 

[markatisu]

I stink at NPD so why not here too

[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st day - 900k
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st week - 1,150k
[WII] New Super Mario Bros Wii (Nintendo) - 3rd week - 375k
PS3 Hardware - 175k
WII Hardware - 140k

 

[Chuck Norris]

I'm not here to quantify disappoint, but certainly the amount of increase over what it was doing a year before is less since 2008 PS3 got out of its own rut and entered the holiday season.

That's because PS3 was doing like 3,000 per week and then Sony went crazy with their bundles and dropped the 80GB SKU (?) price but even then only peaked at the lowest levels PS3 has done since the Slim. Basically Slim's weakest moments are the equivelant of PS3's very best the year before.

 

[Chris1964]

That's because PS3 was doing like 3,000 per week and then Sony went crazy with their bundles and dropped the 80GB SKU price but even then only peaked at the lowest levels PS3 has done since the Slim. Basically Slim's weakest moments are the equivelant of PS3's very best the years before.

No. PS3 didn't launch in 2008 but 2006. Do some research before posting.

 

[Chuck Norris]

No. PS3 didn't launch in 2008 but 2006. Do some research before posting.

Sorry I meant year not years, don't get so angry.

 

[Nirolak]

That's because PS3 was doing like 3,000 per week and then Sony went crazy with their bundles and dropped the 80GB SKU (?) price but even then only peaked at the lowest levels PS3 has done since the Slim. Basically Slim's weakest moments are the equivelant of PS3's very best the years before.

I believe this is the chart you you're looking for actually:

 

[onken]

I agree. There doesn't seem to be anything too major next year for the PS3 and Wii except Versus...in December 2010 maybe? Wonder what Sony and Nintendo will do. I wonder if Nintendo will try to push Reginliev. And if they pressure SE into revealing DQ X?

Ah, yeah, GT5 should be big. Not really seeing Yakuza push too much HW though, but good SW. I wonder if End of Eternity will do anything? But January and Feb seem a bit bare.

Jesus, did you even look at the release lists before posting this?

 

[Chris1964]

Have we said bye bye to the complete Famitsu leak one and for all?
I don't want to believe this is the case but if this has indeed happened it is a major step back.

1. Full top 30 sales 1 week later.
2. No new releases sales outside top 30.
3. No seperate top 30 for Golden Week, Obon and Christmas but combined, and only top 20 for the individual weeks.

 

[onken]

I hope not but it's certainly looking that way.

 

[duckroll]

Have we said bye bye to the complete Famitsu leak one and for all?
I don't want to believe this is the case but if this has indeed happened it is a major step back.

1. Full top 30 sales 1 week later.
2. No new releases sales outside top 30.
3. No seperate top 30 for Golden Week, Obon and Christmas but combined, and only top 20 for the individual weeks.

We might not have a complete Famitsu leak for last week, but we might have it this week. I wouldn't say it's for sure that the complete leak is gone once and for all just because the regular guy only posted new titles last week. Maybe he just didn't feel like posting the whole thing.

 

[Chris1964]

We might not have a complete Famitsu leak for last week, but we might have it this week. I wouldn't say it's for sure that the complete leak is gone once and for all just because the regular guy only posted new titles last week. Maybe he just didn't feel like posting the whole thing.

This hasn't happened before since we started getting the complete leak back in September 2007. I hope he just was in bad mood or something.

 

[duckroll]

This hasn't happened before since we started getting the complete leak back in September 2007. I hope he just was in bad mood or something.

Me too. Or maybe he felt Enterbrain was on to him? I mean, to be honest, I would rather lose a complete entry for a week, or a few weeks here and there, rather than lose leaks entirely if he gets busted.

 

[Nirolak]

Me too. Or maybe he felt Enterbrain was on to him? I mean, to be honest, I would rather lose a complete entry for a week, or a few weeks here and there, rather than lose leaks entirely if he gets busted.

That's what I was thinking too. He might be making sure he has at least all the really interesting holiday data before risking releasing the data again.

 

[mclem]

Something I've been musing about regarding FF13's front-loadedness:

Is there any correlation between a game being, er, a 'big' game (in terms of quantity of content) and having higher-than-expected sales figures in the weeks immediately following the launch; short-term legs rather than long-term?

The thought springs to mind that - as we arguably saw with DQ9 - if people aren't compelled to sell the game on, there won't be many second-hand copies in the market for *new* buyers to buy, so they may go for new copies instead - naturally, propping up the sales figures in the process.

DQ9 did it with something of a perfect storm of both being a big quest *and* having a constant dripfeed of new content. FF13, as far as I'm aware, is only a big quest, but that would still mean that people are extremely unlikely to get through it in the first week alone.

Of course, this'll only last as long as the second-hand market stays relatively empty, but I suspect - if my theory is correct - it'll have unusually high *short-term* legs, maybe good sales until the new year or therabouts.


Regarding that M/F split by age chart above: What the hell happens to Japanese men past 65? Have they got a whole Logan's Run thing going on?

 

[sleeping_dragon]

Predictions:

FFXIII First Day - 999k
FFXIII First Week - 1395k
NSMBW -340k

Playstation 3 - 155k
Wii - 105k

The North East wind will blows come the 17th of this month.

 

[Chris1964]

I just noticed that Friend Collection will be the third best selling game of the year behind DQIX and HG/SS. I was sure that New Super Mario Bros. Wii would be that game but unless it sells >1M the next two weeks this isn't going to happen. Friend Collection just doesn't want to die.

It's the second time top 3 belongs to the same console.
This happened before at 2006 with DS again (and it had the top 4 that year).

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

My turn, 36 predictions so far, huuge...

Predictions:
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st day - 940,000
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st week - 1,237,000
[WII] New Super Mario Bros Wii (Nintendo) - 3rd week - 381,000
PS3 Hardware - 167,000
WII Hardware - 124,000

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

FF13, as far as I'm aware, is only a big quest, but that would still mean that people are extremely unlikely to get through it in the first week alone.

Moreso than the PS2 entries we're deriving the front-loadedness from?

 

[duckroll]

My turn, 36 predictions so far, huuge...

Good luck with compiling all the predictions, and subsequently the results. We all appreciate the hard work you're putting in!

 

[farnham]

DQ9 did it with something of a perfect storm of both being a big quest *and* having a constant dripfeed of new content. FF13, as far as I'm aware, is only a big quest, but that would still mean that people are extremely unlikely to get through it in the first week alone.[/B]

Unrelated to sales age.. but my GF said that the main Quest of DQ9 is about half of DQ 5.. but there are a shitload of downloadable quests .. so its not really a big quest... at least thats what ive heard..

 

[BishopLamont]

Bah feel like predicting but can't be stuffed lookin through the numbers, oh well, good luck to all, some random person is going to end up nailing the FF13 numbers I bet since we have a shipment number.

 

[mclem]

Moreso than the PS2 entries we're deriving the front-loadedness from?

Oh, I'm not disputing that it'll be front-loaded, I'm just curious whether long games such as those have a slightly different look to their front-loadedness than others. The same would be true of the PS2 entries, potentially.

 

[duckroll]

Oh, I'm not disputing that it'll be front-loaded, I'm just curious whether long games such as those have a slightly different look to their front-loadedness than others.

I think when we talk about how front-loaded FFXIII will be, most of us are comparing it with other FF games. They're pretty damn front loaded, with sales becoming rather insignificant (under 100k) after the third week. It doesn't really matter how long the game is honestly.

 

[Stumpokapow]

It's the second time top 3 belongs to the same console.
This happened before at 2006 with DS again (and it had the top 4 that year).

I was surprised at this figure so I checked it out and you're right; in all of the PS2's reign, the GBA had at least one title. During the PS1's reign, the GB had at least one title. In fact, given near-annual Pokemon releases, it's essentially impossible for a non-Nintendo platform to cement the <top X> titles. Neat.

Edit: It's not true in the US though.
2008: Wii 1-4 (Wii Play, MK Wii, Wii Fit, Brawl)
2002: PS2 1-3 (GTA VC, GTA III, Madden 03)

I don't have any pre-2002 top lists for the year to know how many other times it's happened.

 

[TheRagnCajun]

Predictions:
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st day - 1,200k
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st week - 1,500k
[WII] New Super Mario Bros Wii (Nintendo) - 3rd week - 400k
PS3 Hardware - 150k
WII Hardware - 120k

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Oh, I'm not disputing that it'll be front-loaded, I'm just curious whether long games such as those have a slightly different look to their front-loadedness than others.

I don't think so. It's RPGs, which we'd normally think of as having a long quest, that seem to be the most loaded into that first week. Exceptions like Pokémon just seem to keep going forever rather than maintaining strong numbers for an extra week or two, but in those games the main quest is really just the beginning.

 

[Frillen]

[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st day - 950k
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st week - 1350k
[WII] New Super Mario Bros Wii (Nintendo) - 3rd week - 280k
PS3 Hardware - 220k
WII Hardware - 130k

 

[NintendosBooger]

Predictions:
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st day - 600k
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st week - 1.2 million
[WII] New Super Mario Bros Wii (Nintendo) - 3rd week - 500k

 

[Nibelung Valesti]

Predictions:

FFXIII First Day - 910k
FFXIII First Week - 1.250 million
NSMBW Third Week - 290k

Wii - 90k
PS3 - 160k

 

[schuelma]

Ok, a few slight tweaks:


[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st day - 900K
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st week - 1.18M
[WII] New Super Mario Bros Wii (Nintendo) - 3rd week - 400K
PS3 Hardware - 170K
WII Hardware - 175K


PREDICTIONS PREDICTIONS PREDICTIONS

 

[Brofist]

I just noticed that Friend Collection will be the third best selling game of the year behind DQIX and HG/SS. I was sure that New Super Mario Bros. Wii would be that game but unless it sells >1M the next two weeks this isn't going to happen. Friend Collection just doesn't want to die.

It's the second time top 3 belongs to the same console.
This happened before at 2006 with DS again (and it had the top 4 that year).

It's the young girls equivalent of Monster Hunter, they really did hit a home run with that one.

 

[botticus]

Haven't done this for a few weeks, might as well jump back in!

[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st day - 925K
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st week - 1.2M
[WII] New Super Mario Bros Wii (Nintendo) - 3rd week - 450K
PS3 Hardware - 120K
WII Hardware - 150K

 

[deleted]

First time doing this:

[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st day - 895,000
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st week - 1,435,000
[WII] New Super Mario Bros Wii (Nintendo) - 3rd week - 245,000
PS3 Hardware - 195,000
WII Hardware - 135,000

 

[gkryhewy]

I see that everyone is predicting 3rd week numbers for NSMB Wii. When should we see second-week numbers?

 

[schuelma]

I see that everyone is predicting 3rd week numbers for NSMB Wii. When should we see second-week numbers?

Hopefully Wed. morning though with the lack of complete leaks lately who knows.

 

[gkryhewy]

Hopefully Wed. morning though with the lack of complete leaks lately who knows.

Thanks. I'm very curious about those.

 

[schuelma]

Thanks. I'm very curious about those.

Assuming no supply problems they should be very high considering how well it did over its 1st weekend.