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Media Create Sales: Nov 30-Dec 6, 2009
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
Bel Marduk
Banned
The nipponsalesage blog put up an interesting ToG article. Hope it really ends up selling as well as the Comgnet numbers would show.
http://nipponsalesage.blogspot.com/2009/12/tales-of-graces-comgnet-tales-of-versus.html
"Graces did 71.5% of its total orders with its preorders (357/498)Versus did 62.3& of its orders from preorders. In real numbers, Versus did 58% of its 1st week from its 1st day.
So, taking this ratio- if Graces does 71.5% of its business from first day, the total would be about 158K first week. This would be about 150K if we took away 7-8K for 1st day bundle sales.
If the percentage is 4.5% lower similar to Versus, the number would be 67% and so the first week would be 168K first week.
One other analysis- Versus had 216 orders after the preorders. Graces had 141, 65.2%. Versus did 64K after its first day- 65.2% of that is 42K, so from this analysis Graces would do 155K.
So what does this all mean? First, I think its likely to beat ToS:KoR's first week. I think if we assume that we would get 160K or so, then add 5-10K for holiday rush and bundle sales, we will see a 165-170K first week for Graces."
Now, as for predictions, anybody can predict right? Here are mine:
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st day - 900K
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st week - 1.2M
[WII] New Super Mario Bros Wii (Nintendo) - 3rd week - 350k
PS3 Hardware - 155K
WII Hardware - 160K
Not totally 100% confident in PS3 and Wii HW but we'll see what happens!
http://nipponsalesage.blogspot.com/2009/12/tales-of-graces-comgnet-tales-of-versus.html
"Graces did 71.5% of its total orders with its preorders (357/498)Versus did 62.3& of its orders from preorders. In real numbers, Versus did 58% of its 1st week from its 1st day.
So, taking this ratio- if Graces does 71.5% of its business from first day, the total would be about 158K first week. This would be about 150K if we took away 7-8K for 1st day bundle sales.
If the percentage is 4.5% lower similar to Versus, the number would be 67% and so the first week would be 168K first week.
One other analysis- Versus had 216 orders after the preorders. Graces had 141, 65.2%. Versus did 64K after its first day- 65.2% of that is 42K, so from this analysis Graces would do 155K.
So what does this all mean? First, I think its likely to beat ToS:KoR's first week. I think if we assume that we would get 160K or so, then add 5-10K for holiday rush and bundle sales, we will see a 165-170K first week for Graces."
Now, as for predictions, anybody can predict right? Here are mine:
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st day - 900K
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st week - 1.2M
[WII] New Super Mario Bros Wii (Nintendo) - 3rd week - 350k
PS3 Hardware - 155K
WII Hardware - 160K
Not totally 100% confident in PS3 and Wii HW but we'll see what happens!
Souldriver
Member
What I find amazing is that - if I'm reading that right - 80% of total sales happened in its first week. WTF!? How is that even possible?Opiate said:
In case someone doesn't know how frontloaded Final Fantasy is these are all previous main releases, without budget sales (Famitsu):
31/01/97 [PS1] Final Fantasy VII (Square) - 2.034.879 / 3.277.291 - 62,09%
11/02/99 [PS1] Final Fantasy VIII (Square) - 2.504.044 / 3.501.588 - 71,51%
07/07/00 [PS1] Final Fantasy IX (Square) - 1.954.421 / 2.707.301 - 72,19%
19/07/01 [PS2] Final Fantasy X (Square) - 1.749.737 / 2.325.215 - 75,25%
13/03/03 [PS2] Final Fantasy X-2 (Square Enix) - 1.472.914 / 1.472.914 - 1.960.937 - 75,11%
16/03/06 [PS2] Final Fantasy XII (Square Enix) - 1.840.397 / 2.322.329 - 79,25%
It tends to become more and more frontloaded.
31/01/97 [PS1] Final Fantasy VII (Square) - 2.034.879 / 3.277.291 - 62,09%
11/02/99 [PS1] Final Fantasy VIII (Square) - 2.504.044 / 3.501.588 - 71,51%
07/07/00 [PS1] Final Fantasy IX (Square) - 1.954.421 / 2.707.301 - 72,19%
19/07/01 [PS2] Final Fantasy X (Square) - 1.749.737 / 2.325.215 - 75,25%
13/03/03 [PS2] Final Fantasy X-2 (Square Enix) - 1.472.914 / 1.472.914 - 1.960.937 - 75,11%
16/03/06 [PS2] Final Fantasy XII (Square Enix) - 1.840.397 / 2.322.329 - 79,25%
It tends to become more and more frontloaded.
Souldriver
Member
That's not exactly an explanation, merely giving it a name. The used sales are an explanation though.Minsc said:
I'm not saying it's really impossible (I'm just looking at the facts here
). I'm saying it baffles my mind that this kind of sales pattern exists in reality. I find it so hard to fathom that just about everyone who contemplates on getting this game already owns the console it's on beforehand (or buys it when the game releases) and that they all get it first day (or first week). Is there no one that isn't "zomg day one I'll skip work!" and just buys it along the way if they have time/money/... And all the people who buy the console (here PS2) after FF's release; None of them want to buy the game anymore? Everyone who wanted to buy the game was ready day one?I guess that the used sales suffices to explain this phenomena, since used sales are very common in Japan. But that brings me to another weird phenomena that Nintendo games are immune to used sales completely destroying the sales of the game as new.
Edit: I guess the fact that FFXII came out less than a year before the launch of the PS3 is probably also a factor that causes the really front-loaded sales.
Dragon Quest is front-loaded just as much as FF.
http://garaph.info/softwareindividual.php//gid/2038
That sales pattern can pretty safely be regarded as the norm for the entire genre.
http://garaph.info/softwareindividual.php//gid/2038
That sales pattern can pretty safely be regarded as the norm for the entire genre.
charlequin
Banned
kpop100 said:Damn straight I bring it up every MC topic.
expected Wii to outsell PS3 FFXIII week on a weekly basis.
Unless the gap is 30k or more, that's just kind of dumb. Those of us who were wrong about the PS3 were really wrong, while almost every non-crazy prediction in this thread has PS3 and Wii within striking distance of each other. If you're going to make fun of people, make fun of people for actually being super-wrong. :lol
Nibelung Valesti said:
You think the Wii is going to go down from this week? :lol
A lot of you guys are really lowballing the Wii.
And just to be fair:
botticus said:
Have you accounted for what is almost certainly a minimum of 40k sales of the Lightning LE PS3 that week?
Opiate said:
The only time they were ever truly on the same level in recent history was more than ten years ago. FF has been on a decline since then and none of the later FFs have had sales comparable to DQ's.
Thinking of them as the "twin juggernauts" is still pretty reasonable: even at its reduced size, FF still towers over the nearest competitor.
Souldriver said:
Err... why?
Everyone knows about Final Fantasy well in advance. It's a series whose fans really, really love it. Anyone who cares about it will probably buy the console it's announced for well before the game's out. Why would someone wait to buy the game?
bcn-ron said:
No, it's not.
[PS1] Dragon Quest VII (Enix) - 1.862.065 / 3.893.293 - 47,83%
[PS2] Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King (Square Enix) - 2.236.881 / 3.555.469 - 62,91%
[NDS] Dragon Quest IX: Sentinels of the Starry Skies (Square Enix) - 2.343.440 / 4.038.990 11/07/09 - 58,02% (and counting)
Souldriver said:
Single player games get hit a lot harder by the used market. People play them in a week and sell them back getting nearly what they payed for it. Others who come along later can get a pristine used copy for less than retail.
Multiplayer games stand a better chance because people keep them around. Also, Nintendo hits outside of the hardcore market that does the rapid trading with their expanded market games. However, Nintendo's more traditional "hardcore" titles follow the traditional model.
Ok. My mistake to say "just as much". Sorry.Chris1964 said:
Still quite front-loaded. DQ IX a little less for reasons that have already been brought up.
It's interesting because it's so counter-intuitive. As discussed before, you'd expect a game to hold out longer the more content it offers, but still RPGs keep doing 85%+ of their LTDs in the first month.
We've heard the crazy stories of used copies popping up on launch day. Maybe people buy them based on hype and immediate appeal, come home to find the game isn't what they wanted after all, and get rid of it immediately.
charlequin said:
I know, but this is my point: it's been a gradual decline for FF, with an associated gradual incline for DQ. With FF VIII, they were practically at the same level. Then FF started trending down slight amounts with each iteration. It was small enough that many people didn't think of it as a real decline of the franchise, just a very gradual lessening. Nothing like a spectacular, Guitar Hero-esque crash, or the precipitous drop in sales Fighting Games experienced.
Okay, here are two perfectly legitimate ways to view the numbers, to put this in context. By everyone's projections of FFXIII -- let's average them out to a generous 1.4M -- FFXIII is going to struggle to hit 2M LTD. If these estimates prove reasonable, FFXIII will have sold less than half of what DQIX has sold. DQ is twice as big as FF now!
But those are relative figures. What about absolute ones? Well, on an absolute scale, Final Fantasy would be closer to Fragile than it is to DQ.
I'm sure this isn't news to those who pay very close attention, but to anyone who's interest is only casual, you may not have noticed how far the DQ/FF trends have gone. It's very common for a gradual decline to not be noticed by the general populace for a long time. 5% drop followed by 5% drop followed by 5%... until you look up 10 years later, and the product is selling half of what it did previously (this is a generalized example. FF isn't at 50% sales. yet).
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Even if we do count them as direct competitors, Pokémon wouldn't be its nearest competitor. In absolute terms those games selling 100K are closer to 2 million than is the 5 million of a new main Pokémon. :loljman2050 said:I'm assuming Pokemon doesn't count
EDIT: I see Opiate says much the same.
Souldriver
Member
Well, I guess I'm not that big of a gamer then.charlequin said:
Even if it's a game I'm really looking forward to, I don't have to get it DAY ONE!!!1 or even first week. I know this is some foreign attitude here on gaf P), but you'd think there would be a considerable fraction of people in real life who also "like to get Final Fantasy but don't necessarily need it day one". But the numbers suggest otherwise, and that's what I find surprising.I think that FFXIII could have better "legs" than recent entries in the series. None of the previous games were released during the holiday season, and these first week shipment numbers that have been hinted at seem a little on the low side.
Instead of it's first week counting for 79% of the LTD (like FFXII), I can see the first week percentage being in the low 70's, and the second/third week numbers being proportionately larger than normal due to the holidays.
Instead of it's first week counting for 79% of the LTD (like FFXII), I can see the first week percentage being in the low 70's, and the second/third week numbers being proportionately larger than normal due to the holidays.
Kurosaki Ichigo
Member
Those are 2 days "first weeks" vs 4 days on the FF case. I remember trying to make comparisons but hard to find the posts now lol. In the end FF was more front-loaded as expected (but not as much as the 2-days vs 4-days leads to think), helped by releasing more than 1 entry on the same system (as it gets more front-loaded with every release on the same system), but FF7 was quite less front-loaded than the rest, comparing well to DQ7 and DQ8. Overall, FF is about the epitome of front-loaded numbers while DQ is about as front-loaded as any typical well-known RPG franchise.Chris1964 said:
gkrykewy said:
Someone here predicted lower numbers than me, why single me out?
I know little about sales-age, I'm just fooling around. It'd be entertaining if the first day had relatively low numbers, just for the shitstorm it would cause around these parts. Well that or really high numbers. Either would suffice.
charlequin
Banned
Opiate said:
That's not actually accurate. There have been six "main series" FFs since the PS1 (counting the upcoming FF13) and only two DQs, one of which declined from the PS1 incarnation and the second of which massively increased for reasons that have much more to do with platform and market positioning than a real increase of DQ as an overall brand. Meanwhile, this FF is unquestionably suffering from the reverse (poor platform and positioning.)
In a world where the PS3 was actually the PS2-2 you'd probably be looking at something more like a 3.5m DQ9 vs. a 2.2m FF13. (Or to pick a more realistic but slightly less salient example, FF3 on DS sold 1m while DQV DS sold around 1.2m.) In other words: I think the specific situation you're looking at doesn't really demonstrate that DQ is "more than twice as strong" a series as FF (for main entries) today.
Souldriver said:Well, I guess I'm not that big of a gamer then.
I'm sure there are plenty of people who feel the way I do about 90% of games: they'll buy them a year later when they're drastically cheaper and play them then. But those people are 100% irrelevant to sales: unless we're talking leggy Nintendo properties, those people are buying plentiful used copies and never register as a "sale."
What's actually important is how many people want to play the game pretty soon after it's released (like in the first couple months), and are willing to pay full price, but don't absolutely need to have it the first day. These people are fairly prevalent for, say, a DQ remake on DS but they just don't exist for FF -- it's a big enough event, like a blockbuster movie or something, that basically anyone who's willing to pay full price for it is going to have no reason not to buy it during the first three days.
Kurosaki Ichigo said:
First two weeks percentage of LTD:
FFVII - 2.36m (72.1%)
FFVIII - 2.78m (79.3%)
FFIX - 2.28m (84.3%)
FFX - 1.98m (85.3%)
FFXII - 2.06m (88.6%)
DQVII - 2.93m (75.4%)
DQVIII - 2.80m (78.7%)
DQIX - 2.95m (72.9%)
It really makes a difference on DQVII, since it only dropped 42% in its second week.
Tales, for reference (guessing on "mainline" games):
PS1 Destiny - 79.5%
PS1 Eternia - 68.5%
PS2 Destiny 2 - 73.6%
GCN Symphonia - 75.1%
PS2 Rebirth - 74.4%
PS2 Legendia - 85.5%
PS2 Abyss - 79.1%
NDS Innocence - 54.6%
360 Vesperia - 59.3%
NDS Hearts - 68.2%
Famitsu 2009 top 10 until now.
01 . [NDS] Dragon Quest IX: Sentinels of the Starry Skies (Square Enix) - 4.038.990 / 4.038.990
02 . [NDS] Pokemon Heart Gold / Soul Silver (Pokemon Co.) - 3.021.701 / 3.021.701
03 . [NDS] Friend Collection (Nintendo) - 1.709.209 / 1.709.209
04 . [WII] Wii Sports Resort (Nintendo) - 1.355.478 / 1.355.478
05 . [WII] Wii Fit Plus (Nintendo) - 942.128 / 942.128
06 . [WII] Monster Hunter 3 (Capcom) - 939.707 / 939.707
07 . [WII] New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Nintendo) - 936.734 / 936.734
08 . [PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom Unite (PSP the Best) (Capcom) - 886.898 / 1.086.015
09 . [NDS] Mario & Luigi: Bowser's Inside Story (Nintendo) - 663.484 / 663.484
10 . [NDS] Inazuma Eleven 2: Threat of the Invaders - Fire / Blizzard (Level 5) - 659.104 / 659.104
Every LTD is up to 29/11/09 except for:
New Super Mario Bros Wii: 06/12/09
Monster Hunter 3: 08/11/09
Mario & Luigi: Bowser's Inside Story: 26/07/09
When the year ends the only difference will be FF XIII which will push Mario & Luigi outside top 10.
Inazuma Eleven 2 keeps selling so Layton 4 doesn't have a shot beating it this year.
Zelda has only one week of sales and it won't make it.
01 . [NDS] Dragon Quest IX: Sentinels of the Starry Skies (Square Enix) - 4.038.990 / 4.038.990
02 . [NDS] Pokemon Heart Gold / Soul Silver (Pokemon Co.) - 3.021.701 / 3.021.701
03 . [NDS] Friend Collection (Nintendo) - 1.709.209 / 1.709.209
04 . [WII] Wii Sports Resort (Nintendo) - 1.355.478 / 1.355.478
05 . [WII] Wii Fit Plus (Nintendo) - 942.128 / 942.128
06 . [WII] Monster Hunter 3 (Capcom) - 939.707 / 939.707
07 . [WII] New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Nintendo) - 936.734 / 936.734
08 . [PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom Unite (PSP the Best) (Capcom) - 886.898 / 1.086.015
09 . [NDS] Mario & Luigi: Bowser's Inside Story (Nintendo) - 663.484 / 663.484
10 . [NDS] Inazuma Eleven 2: Threat of the Invaders - Fire / Blizzard (Level 5) - 659.104 / 659.104
Every LTD is up to 29/11/09 except for:
New Super Mario Bros Wii: 06/12/09
Monster Hunter 3: 08/11/09
Mario & Luigi: Bowser's Inside Story: 26/07/09
When the year ends the only difference will be FF XIII which will push Mario & Luigi outside top 10.
Inazuma Eleven 2 keeps selling so Layton 4 doesn't have a shot beating it this year.
Zelda has only one week of sales and it won't make it.
Chris1964 said:
Inazuma Eleven 2 is definitely a pretty big surprise this year, along with Friends Collection. There were doubters thinking Layton would be the only hit Level 5 ever had, but I think this proves they know how to build franchises and to market them really well. Btw, can you do one for third parties as well, it'll be interesting to see how non-Nintendo stuff have been selling this year.
Famitsu non Nintendo 2009 top 10 until now.
01 . [NDS] Dragon Quest IX: Sentinels of the Starry Skies (Square Enix) - 4.038.990 / 4.038.990 (until 29/11/09)
02 . [WII] Monster Hunter 3 (Capcom) - 939.707 / 939.707 (until 08/11/09)
03 . [PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom Unite (PSP the Best) (Capcom) - 886.898 / 1.086.015 (until 29/11/09)
04 . [NDS] Inazuma Eleven 2: Threat of the Invaders - Fire / Blizzard (Level 5) - 659.104 / 659.104 (until 29/11/09)
05 . [PS3] Yakuza 3 (Sega) - 499.436 / 499.436 (until 12/07/09)
06 . [NDS] Kingdom Hearts: 358/2 Days (Square Enix) - 495.751 / 495.751 (until 26/07/09)
07 . [PS3] Resident Evil 5 (Capcom) - 482.291 / 482.291 (until 12/07/09)
08 . [PSP] Dynasty Warriors: Strikeforce (Koei) - 383.600 / 383.600 (until 12/07/09)
09 . [PS3] World Soccer Winning Eleven 2010 (Konami) - 321.722 / 321.722 (until 29/11/09)
10 . [PSP] Tales of the World: Radiant Mythology 2 (Namco Bandai) - 317.543 / 317.543 (until 12/07/09)
01 . [NDS] Dragon Quest IX: Sentinels of the Starry Skies (Square Enix) - 4.038.990 / 4.038.990 (until 29/11/09)
02 . [WII] Monster Hunter 3 (Capcom) - 939.707 / 939.707 (until 08/11/09)
03 . [PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom Unite (PSP the Best) (Capcom) - 886.898 / 1.086.015 (until 29/11/09)
04 . [NDS] Inazuma Eleven 2: Threat of the Invaders - Fire / Blizzard (Level 5) - 659.104 / 659.104 (until 29/11/09)
05 . [PS3] Yakuza 3 (Sega) - 499.436 / 499.436 (until 12/07/09)
06 . [NDS] Kingdom Hearts: 358/2 Days (Square Enix) - 495.751 / 495.751 (until 26/07/09)
07 . [PS3] Resident Evil 5 (Capcom) - 482.291 / 482.291 (until 12/07/09)
08 . [PSP] Dynasty Warriors: Strikeforce (Koei) - 383.600 / 383.600 (until 12/07/09)
09 . [PS3] World Soccer Winning Eleven 2010 (Konami) - 321.722 / 321.722 (until 29/11/09)
10 . [PSP] Tales of the World: Radiant Mythology 2 (Namco Bandai) - 317.543 / 317.543 (until 12/07/09)
LINK.AGE76
Member
Shouldn't DQ9 be there Chris^
You know, it really bothers me that a BEST title is in the Top10. I'm not sure why but, it just does. It's not a new release, it's not even a Best version of an original game... but of an expanded re-release of a previously released game. Seriously, don't people have OTHER games to buy? :lol