Spiegel said:
Japanese third parties didn't start developing games massively for Wii when the console was outselling the competition in Japan. Why do you think they are going to start now?
I don't understand why do you say "wait until december". Third parties aren't waiting to see if NSMB, Tales of Graces and Sengoku Musou sell millions. And even if they were waiting for that, games need at least a year and half to be made.
If there were big third party games in the making for Wii and releasing in the first half of 2010, I think we already should know about them.
Maybe I'm wrong, but if I were Nintendo I would let everyone know about every game coming in 2010. Only knowing DQX will be released eventually it's not enough. This is why it looks like simply those games aren't being made for the Wii right now.
I don't think they are going to start massively developing Wii games. As you said, if it didn't happen when the Wii was outselling everything, it won't happen now.
The question in 2010 is whether development has indeed fallen off a cliff or there will start to be announcements soon. You'll recall I said much the same about PS3 after February 2009. As in before, I'm guessing its somewhere in between- I find it hard to believe that 3rd party development is going to cease completely, so I do expect a few mid tier announcements for the Spring period, but on the other hand I doubt there will be any huge games in mid 2010 as you said. It makes perfect sense to me and you to announce every single 2010 Wii game right now, but as we've seen Nintendo rarely works that way.
Re: December, I was speaking to his general point which seemed to be another variation on Nintendo is doomed, etc.
Lastly, I think the best case scenario going forward is that those few franchises that have come to the platform remain there, and that's where I think the sales of Tales of Graces. SW3. and RE: DS will be important.