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[thestopsign]

At this rate, PS3 and Wii YTD sales will basically be equal by the end of November. It really will come down to December sales. If PS3 sales are stronger than expected in December, and Wii sales are weaker than expected, PS3 could conceivably pull ahead for the year. right now, I am going to say that the odds of that happening are 3:1 in favour of the Wii winning the year. We will know for sure after NSMB Wii launches.

I don't think New Super Mario Bros will provide a humongous initial influx of sales for the Wii, but it will provide a nice bump that will continue to grow throughout the holiday season. Final Fantasy XIII probably won't have that effect, but it might. So really the only answer is to wait, as this generation is just way to weird.

 

[schuelma]

So why exactly did the DS sales plummet?

I don't know if they plummeted, but they've definitely been going down.

Will be interesting to see the holiday sales..not really any huge tent pole title aside from Zelda.

 

[Somnid]

So why exactly did the DS sales plummet?

DSi LL

 

[Souldriver]

DSi LL

Doubt that.

 

[vicissitudes]

At this rate, PS3 and Wii YTD sales will basically be equal by the end of November. It really will come down to December sales. If PS3 sales are stronger than expected in December, and Wii sales are weaker than expected, PS3 could conceivably pull ahead for the year. right now, I am going to say that the odds of that happening are 3:1 in favour of the Wii winning the year. We will know for sure after NSMB Wii launches.

To be honest, I didn't think they'd be this close LTD at this point. PS3 will get a huge bump FFXIII week so now I'm not sure what's going to happen. It all depends on NSMB + holiday bump for Wii. Also, it'll be interesting to see if the PS3 will get a larger holiday boost than usual, seeing as how the slim has been doing so well.

This is why I said last week that it was too early to predict Wii's 2009 holiday performance from the post-2009 price drop data. 2007 has pulled ahead of 2009 again, and week 46 this year is no better than week 46 last year.

The PS3 drop was expected because of bundles last week but I have no idea why the Wii dropped 5k this week. Next week is where it started to ramp up in sales in 2007 and 2008 so if we don't see a noticible increase in Wii sales I'd be worried.

 

[schuelma]

The PS3 drop was expected because of bundles last week but I have no idea why the Wii dropped 5k this week. Next week is where it started to ramp up in sales in 2007 and 2008 so if we don't see a noticible increase in Wii sales I'd be worried.

Could have been an adjustment from MC. They had Wii about 8k higher last week than Famitsu and it only went down 1K in Famitsu this week.

 

[DR2K]

I don't think New Super Mario Bros will provide a humongous initial influx of sales for the Wii, but it will provide a nice bump that will continue to grow throughout the holiday season. Final Fantasy XIII probably won't have that effect, but it might. So really the only answer is to wait, as this generation is just way to weird.

I really don't see another Mario game on the Wii bumping it too much. Whereas FFXIII is going to bring in those die hard JRPG fans.

 

[kswiston]

I don't think New Super Mario Bros will provide a humongous initial influx of sales for the Wii, but it will provide a nice bump that will continue to grow throughout the holiday season. Final Fantasy XIII probably won't have that effect, but it might. So really the only answer is to wait, as this generation is just way to weird.

Final Fantasy XIII is only out in the last 2 weeks of 2009. I very much doubt that FFXIII will have any long lasting effect on PS3 sales, but the effect it WILL have will be both immediate and large. PS3 sales in April jumped from 16k to 62k when the FFXIII demo was released with Advent Children Complete. The actual release of Final Fantasy XIII plus holidays will lead to huge sales. Final Fantasy X pushed PS2 sales from 88k to 156k, and that was in July. I wouldn't be surprised if PS3 breaks 200k the week Final Fantasy XIII is released.

EDIT: On a slightly different note, is 2009 already PS3's best YTD in Japan according to Media Create? I seem to remember the system not even reaching 1M last year.

 

[Regulus Tera]

So why exactly did the DS sales plummet?

Anticipation for DSiLL?

It's not so much that they plummeted as much as PSP getting another price cut.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

I really don't see another Mario game on the Wii bumping it too much. Whereas FFXIII is going to bring in those die hard JRPG fans.

Yeah well I think Mario is going to get all the people that loved NSMB for the DS, and I think all those RPG fans already bought a PS3.

So there.

 

[Liabe Brave]

EDIT: On a slightly different note, is 2009 already PS3's best YTD in Japan according to Media Create? I seem to remember the system not even reaching 1M last year.

It's already beaten last year (which was indeed under 1m), but it hasn't quite beaten the 2007 total yet. With continued sales like this week plus the FF XIII bump, it will end up as the best year, though.

 

[AdventureRacing]

I really don't see another Mario game on the Wii bumping it too much. Whereas FFXIII is going to bring in those die hard JRPG fans.

I doubt NSMBwii will bump the wii anywhere near as much as FFXIII for the PS3. However i think you're underestimating NSMBwii a little bit. The only mainline mario on the wii was SMG a 3D game and it only sold around a million units.

NSMBwii is a 2D mario and i suspect it is going to sell a shitload more than SMG.

 

[velvet_nitemare]

Always fun going over past threads to see who predicted what.

This FFXIII vs NSMB Wii argument should be fun to look back on.

 

[schuelma]

I think we should do a December hardware prediction (PS3/Wii) given all the interest.

 

[AniHawk]

Doubt that.

DS iLL

 

[t3nmilez]

Yeah..doesn't seem like a ton of initial interest at least if you go by the usual online sources. I think it will do 200K easily over the holiday's but probably won't reach the first ones number.

I dunno if it'll hit the original's numbers, but I'm not sure where you can find this initial interest from. The original Taiko wasn't exactly the #1 most talked about game either and it surprised everyone, don't count the sequel out yet.

 

[mutsu]

So why exactly did the DS sales plummet?

Everyone and their entire family who cares already has one.

 

[Brofist]

DS iLL

I like DSi LoL myself

 

[DR2K]

Yeah well I think Mario is going to get all the people that loved NSMB for the DS, and I think all those RPG fans already bought a PS3.

So there.

Well I'm not trying to downplay NSMBwii, but there have been a ton of Mario games already on the Wii, so there's a considerable base there already. Whereas there's only been a demo for FFXIII on PS3.

 

[schuelma]

Well I'm not trying to downplay NSMBwii, but there have been a ton of Mario games already on the Wii, so there's a considerable base there already. Whereas there's only been a demo for FFXIII on PS3.

We'll see in a few weeks of course, but Mario as a mascot appearing in a soccer or tennis game or even a 3D platformer is a different story than a 2D platformer in Japan. I mean, look at the ads Nintendo is putting out- its about as blatant appeal to nostalgia as you can get. Hell, half the ads don't even show the actual game!

 

[jeremy1456]

Well I'm not trying to downplay NSMBwii, but there have been a ton of Mario games already on the Wii, so there's a considerable base there already. Whereas there's only been a demo for FFXIII on PS3.

There were also lots of Mario games on the DS.

Which one sold 5 million in Japan alone?

 

[donny2112]

but they've definitely been going down.

... since the DSiLL was announced. What a coincydink.

I like DSi LoL myself

DSiLivingLarge

There were also lots of Mario games on the DS.

Which one sold 5 million in Japan alone?

Nice.

SM64DS sells 1m. NSMB comes along and sells 5m.
SMG sells 1m. NSMBWii comes along and sells ...

 

[Michan]

How much did iPod Touch sell in Japan in the 3 first weeks?

I don't know, but I remember seeing a graph which showed iPod sales from each region a while back.

"Roughly 100 eager customers lined up in front of a Japanese Apple Store today to get their hands on the company's new iPod touch, signaling high demand for the portable player in that region." - http://www.macnn.com/articles/07/10/05/ipod.touch.in.japan/

Couldn't find any detailed figures, but if somebody has them, they'd be appreciated.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Well I'm not trying to downplay NSMBwii, but there have been a ton of Mario games already on the Wii, so there's a considerable base there already. Whereas there's only been a demo for FFXIII on PS3.

I was just giving you shit man.

I don't actually care.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

While I don't doubt DSiLL plays some role, DS seems to have been going down since a peak in mid-September (week 7). So the downward trend predates the DSiLL announcement (week 13) by over a month. Whether it would've flattened out by now without the DSiLL announcement we can only guess.

There were also lots of Mario games on the DS.

Which one sold 5 million in Japan alone?

That doesn't necessarily lead to a lot of sold hardware, though. And thinks to the insanely long sell-out of DS Lite, we can't even gauge how much hardware bumping power NSMB had on its own.

 

[Chris1964]

31 . [PSP] Gran Turismo: The Real Driving Simulation (SCE)
32 . [360] Steins; Gate (5pb.)
33 . [360] Bayonetta (Sega)
34 . [PS3] Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare (Legendary Hits) (Activision)
35 . [NDS] Rune Factory 3 (Marvelous Entertainment)
36 . [PSP] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball Portable 4 (Konami)
37 . [NDS] Fresh PreCure! Asobi Collection (Namco Bandai)
38 . [PSP] Dynasty Warriors 6: Special (Koei)
39 . [WII] Mario Kart Wii (Nintendo)
40 . [PSP] Phantasy Star Portable (PSP the Best) (Sega)
41 . [NDS] Love Plus (Konami)
42 . [PS3] Uncharted 2: Among Thieves (SCE)
43 . [NDS] The 3 Sisters in My Family DS 2: 3 Shimai no Dekake Daisakusen (Culture Brain)
44 . [NDS] Grand Theft Auto: Chinatown Wars (CyberFront)
45 . [WII] Monster Hunter 3 (Capcom)
46 . [NDS] New Super Mario Bros. (Nintendo)
47 . [PSP] Macross: Ultimate Frontier (Namco Bandai)
48 . [PS3] Uncharted: Drake's Fortune (Playstation 3 the Best) (SCE)
49 . [PS3] Tales of Vesperia (Namco Bandai)
50 . [NDS] You'll Incur Losses if You Remain Ignorant: How Money and Things Work DS (Nintendo)
xx . [ALL] Total Software Sales (All Publishers) - 940.357 / 52.172.739

J-League Pro Soccer Club! 6: Pride of J sellthrough is 57,82%
PS3 Dragon Ball: Raging Blast sellthrough is 44,95%
360 Dragon Ball: Raging Blast sold 7.000 units

 

[darkhunger]

I doubt NSMBwii will bump the wii anywhere near as much as FFXIII for the PS3. However i think you're underestimating NSMBwii a little bit. The only mainline mario on the wii was SMG a 3D game and it only sold around a million units.

NSMBwii is a 2D mario and i suspect it is going to sell a shitload more than SMG.

Wasn't Super Paper Mario kind of a 2d platformer? (never played so don't know for sure) I don't recall that doing exceptionally well either

 

[cw_sasuke]

Wasn't Super Paper Mario kind of a 2d platformer? (never played so don't know for sure) I don't recall that doing exceptionally well either

It sold 600K, didn`t it ?

 

[Road]

Dengeki: Nov 9-15:

01./00. [PSP] J-League Pro Soccer Club wo Tsukurou! 6: Pride of J (Sega) - 88,818 / NEW
02./00. [PS3] Dragon Ball: Raging Blast (Bandai Namco Games) - 60,395 / NEW
03./03. [NDS] Tomodachi Collection (Nintendo) - 59,017 / 1,634,356
04./02. [WII] Wii Fit Plus (Nintendo) - 54,040 / 906,969
05./01. [PS3]　World Soccer Winning Eleven 2010 (Konami) - 49,489 / 282,250
06./05. [NDS] Pokemon Soul Silver (Pokemon) - 35,539 / 1,519,688
07./00. [WII] Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles: Crystal Bearers (Square Enix) - 32,367 / NEW
08./08. [NDS] Pokemon Heart Gold (Pokemon) - 27,289 / 1,442,405
09./00. [NDS] Rockman EXE Operate Shooting Star (Capcom) - 23,729 / NEW
10./13. [NDS] Inazuma Eleven 2: Kyoui no Shinryakusha - Fire (Level 5) - 19,517 / 306,579

11./12. [NDS] Inazuma Eleven 2: Kyoui no Shinryakusha - Blizzard (Level 5) - 19,050 / 323,274
12./04. [PSP] Persona 3 Portable (Atlus) - 17,894 / 151,530
13./14. [WII] Wii Sports Resort (Nintendo) - 13,419 / 1,354,516
14./09. [WII]　Mario & Sonic at the Vancouver Olympics　(Nintendo) - 13,322 / 37,316
15./06. [PS3] Bayonetta (Sega) - 13,188 / 182,988
16./00. [PSP] Hexyz Force (Atlus) - 12,940 / NEW
17./00. [PSP] Sengoku Hime: Senran ni Mau Otometachi (SystemSoft Alpha) - 12,238 / NEW
18./00. [PSP] Higurashi no Naku Koro Ni Jan (AQ Interactive) - 11,875 / NEW
19./07. [NDS] Hikari no 4 Senshi: Final Fantasy Gaiden (Square Enix) - 10,953 / 160,708
20./00. [PSP] Battle Spirits: Kiseki no Hasha (Bandai Namco Games) - 9,817 / NEW

Other software:

(2007-02) [PS2] J-League Pro Soccer Club wo Tsukurou! 5 (Sega) - (FW: 118,000 / LTD: 195,000)
(2008-11) [NDS] Sakatsuku DS: Touch and Direct (Sega) - (FW: 72,000 / LTD: 186,000)
(2007-06) [PS2] Dragon Ball Z Sparking! Meteor (Bandai Namco Games) - (FW: 204,000 / LTD: 381,000)
(2008-06) [PS3] Dragon Ball Z: Burst Limit (Bandai Namco Games) - (FW: 89,000 / LTD: 156,000)
(2009-01) [WII] Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles: Echoes of Time (Square Enix) - (FW: 20,000 / LTD: 42,000)

Hardware |  This Week |  Last Week |    YTD     |    LTD
------------------------------------------------------------
NDS      |     40,939 |     45,473 |  3,090,945 | 28,069,036
PSP      |     42,740 |     50,250 |  1,830,572 | 12,979,890
Wii      |     26,276 |     29,002 |  1,240,914 |  8,823,957
PS3      |     41,294 |     54,985 |  1,213,178 |  3,915,321
X360     |      4,680 |      4,998 |    326,576 |  1,177,759
PS2      |      1,888 |      1,975 |      
------------------------------------------------------------
PSP go   |      6,459 |            |     47,151 |     47,151 
------------------------------------------------------------   
Total    |    157,817 |    186,683 |

http://news.dengeki.com/soft/ranking/ranking.html
http://ascii.jp/elem/000/000/477/477032/
http://news.dengeki.com/elem/000/000/214/214455/

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Wasn't Super Paper Mario kind of a 2d platformer? (never played so don't know for sure) I don't recall that doing exceptionally well either

A Paper Mario / platformer hybrid of sorts. Became the best-selling Paper Mario game, but didn't do comparably to other 2D Marios.

It's #84 there.

 

[Magicpaint]

I wonder if NSMB Wii will spark up NSMB DS sales a bit. It could inch closer to that 6 million mark.

 

[vicissitudes]

I think we should do a December hardware prediction (PS3/Wii) given all the interest.

I'd be down.

 

[Road]

It's already beaten last year (which was indeed under 1m), but it hasn't quite beaten the 2007 total yet. With continued sales like this week plus the FF XIII bump, it will end up as the best year, though.

I think it actually did this week (Media-Create):

PS3 Yearly sales:

2006 -   457,557
2007 - 1,184,114
2008 -   980,797
2009 - 1,202,749

 

[Grampasso]

I really don't understand, a new Final Fantasy (spinoff) is out, it sells shit and HW sales drop? I think we can say this is the worst FF performance at all since the series was born, unless it will do incredibly well in the next days (but I highly doubt it)
EDIT: Wow @ PSP Go

 

[thestopsign]

No first day sales yet?

 

[donny2112]

I really don't understand, a new Final Fantasy (spinoff) is out, it sells bad and HW sales drop? I think we can say this is the worst FF performance at all since the series was born, unless it will do incredibly well in the next days (but I highly doubt it)

EoT Wii. And Wii sales dropped the week it was released.

 

[Rolf NB]

I think we should do a December hardware prediction (PS3/Wii) given all the interest.

How 'bout this: PS3 hardware will outsell Wii hardware in every remaining week of the year.
(this is a prediction about NSMB's hw bump potential more than anything)

And for shits and giggles, likewise for PSPgo > Xbox 360.

 

[schuelma]

How 'bout this: PS3 hardware will outsell Wii hardware in every remaining week of the year.
(this is a prediction about NSMB's hw bump potential more than anything)
.

Wow..even on the week of 11/30-12/6? Really?

 

[kswiston]

I think we should do a December hardware prediction (PS3/Wii) given all the interest.

I'd like to see the next two weeks of Wii sales before predicting December sales. NSMB Wii will still be an unknown, but we will have a better idea of how the Wii is trending versus 2007/2008 now that we are moving further away from the price drop.

 

[Souldriver]

Wow..even on the week of 11/30-12/6? Really?

It's not totally out of the question though. Does a heavy hitter from Nintendo cause a big spike in hardware sales? Isn't it more a long-term modest bump normally?

 

[Rolf NB]

Wow..even on the week of 11/30-12/6? Really?

It's the big leagues now.
I know about the NSMB Wii launch (3rd of Dec), that was kind of the point. Anything else I'm missing?

 

[botticus]

It's not totally out of the question though. Does a heavy hitter from Nintendo cause a big spike in hardware sales? Isn't it more a long-term modest bump normally?

It's not as if the PS3 is selling into the stratosphere at the moment for a huge bump to be required.

 

[Spiegel]

It's the big leagues now.
I know about the NSMB Wii launch (3rd of Dec), that was kind of the point. Anything else I'm missing?

Tales of Graces bundle 12/10

 

[schuelma]

It's the big leagues now.
I know about the NSMB Wii launch (3rd of Dec), that was kind of the point. Anything else I'm missing?

SW3 on the same day, then Pikachu's Aventure thing on the 5th.

PS3 has Assassins Creed 2 and some budget releases.

If the Wii can't beat the PS3 out that week then it is indeed fucked.

 

[Souldriver]

It's not as if the PS3 is selling into the stratosphere at the moment for a huge bump to be required.

I don't think it's impossible for both to go up in the same ratio as they are now. Say Wii is at 30k and PS3 is at 40k. Going into the holiday season this could go to 60k vs 80k. NSMBW causes a spike of 20k, which basically means Wii=PS3. The following weeks the Wii keeps enjoying this spike, but with FFXIII PS3 sales skyrocket, to go down week after week with a certain degree.


It's just a scenario in my head that doesn't seem batshit insane. I'm not saying I expect it to be like that. I don't know enough about this sort of thing. I don't even know the exact release dates for NSMBW and FFXIII.

 

[Elios83]

Wow..even on the week of 11/30-12/6? Really?

It happened in week of the Wii price drop, it could happen in every week atp.
And it's not like I'm saying that I'm betting on NSMB not doing anything for the Wii because I really don't know. I think there is no guarantee either way, we just have to wait and see. At least I hope that people openly betting on NSMB big hardware seller will admit they were completely wrong if that will be the case.
Btw it's clear that the PS3 vs Wii battle 2009 battle will be sealed by mid December before FFXIII hits, it all relies on how much (and if) Wii can outsell PS3 in the first two weeks of December.

 

[schuelma]

It's not totally out of the question though. Does a heavy hitter from Nintendo cause a big spike in hardware sales? Isn't it more a long-term modest bump normally?

I think it is though, honestly. Wii sales go up in December even when there isn't a huge release. Hell last year for the equivalent week with the biggest release being 428 Wii did about 57K.

 

[schuelma]

I don't think it's impossible for both to go up in the same ratio as they are now. Say Wii is at 30k and PS3 is at 40k. Going into the holiday season this could go to 60k vs 80k. .

I realize that there is a lot of new found faith in Sony, but I find the notion that the PS3 is going to rise to 80K going into December on the back of zero big software releases (probably the biggest release until FF13 is Modern Warfare 2) very very unlikely.

 

[Souldriver]

I think it is though, honestly. Wii sales go up in December even when there isn't a huge release. Hell last year for the equivalent week with the biggest release being 428 Wii did about 57K.

Perhaps. I still think that comparing the current situation to last year isn't the smartest thing to do. There's just no comparison at this point. The PS3 got a redesign and a big price cut. Wii lost momentum and the fact that it still is somewhat in the PS3's sales region is imho because it got a price cut too. Wii doesn't have the privilege of selling well even without software releases anymore. It's also the main reason I don't really thrust all the designated sales-prophets anymore.

 

[schuelma]

The PS3 got a redesign and a big price cut. Wii lost momentum and the fact that it still is somewhat in the PS3's sales region is imho because it got a price cut too. Wii doesn't have the privilege of selling well even without software releases anymore. It's also the main reason I don't really thrust all the designated sales-prophets anymore.

I honestly don't understand what you are saying here.