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[LiquidMetal14]

Not going back on my prediction.....

1st day - 430k

1st week - 840k

LTD - 1.4M

 

[AdventureRacing]

Not going back on my prediction.....

1st day - 430k

1st week - 840k

LTD - 1.4M

I'm not going to comment on the likelihood of this but wow this would have to be a terrible result for SE. By far their most expensive FF game ever made not even coming close to it's previous results.

 

[pseudocaesar]

I'm not going to comment on the likelihood of this but wow this would have to be a terrible result for SE. By far their most expensive FF game ever made not even coming close to it's previous results.

I think it will be pushing closer to 2mil for Japan, and plus it being multipatform now the WW sales will be massive.

 

[LiquidMetal14]

I'm not going to comment on the likelihood of this but wow this would have to be a terrible result for SE. By far their most expensive FF game ever made not even coming close to it's previous results.

I'm low balling. I really hope it takes off and gets closer to 2 million.

 

[Rpgmonkey]

Not going back on my prediction.....

1st day - 430k

1st week - 840k

LTD - 1.4M

I was thinking like 600K first day and 900-1000K first week myself.

Though I don't really know how mainline FF games increase from the first day to the first week, assuming that would be relevant to FFXIII's situation at all.

There are a couple of historical points to this. New Tales games by the main developer (i.e. Wolfteam/Tales Studio) are usually released in November/December every 2 years per team for a ground up game. Tales Studio was initially formed in 2003 to expand to two teams with one ground up game every year. The veteran staff behind "Team Destiny" kept a perfect sequence of one game in November/December every two years since ToP PS1 in 1998 (which as a extended port/remake of the SFC version based on the ToD PS1 engine took only one year). Last year with ToH previous assistants from "Team Destiny" took the lead which I hope will continue the lineage of 2D Tales games. "Team Symphonia" which was build around staff from Cybernetic Empire (PS1, 1999) takes about 2,5 years per game so far, so their next game should arrive around December 2010 indeed. It will be interesting to see what development time the 3D "Team Destiny" will take in the future and if the lead staff from ToS-R reappears.

So out of curiosity (making up hypothetical situations here):

If "Team Hearts" still exists and they use the same amount of time they had with Hearts, wouldn't their next game be scheduled for December 2010 as well?

If "Team Symphonia" really will go for multiplatform development (and assuming that adds a bit of time to their usual development cycle), I could see another game by "Team Hearts" in December 2010, and a new game by "Team Symphonia" in Summer 2011.

But if "Team Destiny" keeps to their November/December release every two years, they'd release on the same year as Team Symphonia's new game. No idea if that's actually an issue to them or if they avoided releasing a new game in the same year just because of different development cycles, so maybe that totally screws up my assumptions. :/

 

[jj984jj]

I still have no idea which of those games are, though. Also, the DS games are supposedly "main" games, but I think they were outsourced.

They sort of cheated since they didn't label them until Tempest came out to exclude it due to the reception, aside from that you've got all the main games. The main games are called "mothership" titles, the rest are "escort" titles.

 

[oldie-newbie]

when lesser gundam series get +100k bundles, i doubt very much that FFXIII will be 50k... think big, very big.

No. For the last gundam, there was less than 30 k bundles. Even MGS4 had less than 50 k bundles. So, do not think so big...

 

[donny2112]

Probably more like 2m total.

Not with a 1.2m first week. Expect FFXIII to sell 75-80% of its LTD first week and probably closer to 80%

 

[jeremy1456]

Not with a 1.2m first week. Expect FFXIII to sell 75-80% of its LTD first week and probably closer to 80%

Well my prediction is that the first week is not going to be 1.2m. I'm thinking more like 1.7m

 

[Grampasso]

Not with a 1.2m first week. Expect FFXIII to sell 75-80% of its LTD first week and probably closer to 80%

Historically you're right, but I think this is the first FF to be released in that time of the year and that could play a major role in total sales when all is said and done

 

[hirokazu]

Impressive showing for PS3 software. I can't believe Wii's only done 1m this year.

What's the next (major) PS3 release this year? Seems like it's in a good position to beat Wii hardware sales this year with FFXIII coming.

 

[charlequin]

I still have no idea which of those games are, though.

In terms of the most conservative standard (games made by the main body of Team Destiny or Team Symphonia), you're looking at a main series that goes Phantasia - Destiny - Phantasia Remake (TD) - Eternia (TS) - Destiny 2 (TD) - Symphonia (TS) - Rebirth (TD) - Abyss (TS) - Destiny Remake (TD) - Vesperia (TS) - Graces (TD).

I think the short version of what we've seen above is that, yes, we can probably expect another Tales entry to hit in December 2010.

Not with a 1.2m first week. Expect FFXIII to sell 75-80% of its LTD first week and probably closer to 80%

I agree. I could see a 1.2m first week -> 1.5-1.6m LTD.

 

[WrathOfOtaibah]

My FFXIII Predictions:

First week - 900,000
LTD - 1.3 million

I even think those numbers might be a little too high

Okay for some reason I read that as pedo-meter.

Pervert

j/k

 

[shykyoichi]

Famitsu has SaGa 2 debut over 100k.

And a better debut for Ys 7 as well!

Yay!

 

[jeremy1456]

Impressive showing for PS3 software. I can't believe Wii's only done 1m this year.

What's the next (major) PS3 release this year? Seems like it's in a good position to beat Wii hardware sales this year with FFXIII coming.

FFXIII is it's next major release methinks.

We'll see if PS3 hardware beats Wii's this holiday season. It's easy to sell the Wii short in this regard, but with Wii Fit Plus, the price drop, FFCC, Tales of Graces, and a main course of New Super Mario Bros., the Wii's lineup ain't looking too shabby.

Let's not forget - New Super mario Bros. on DS sold over 5 million copies.

EDIT: Oh, and let's not forget Samurai Warriors 3!

 

[Cat in the Hat]

I was thinking about something and wanna know what the sales geniuses think.

(PSX) Gran Turismo - 10.84 million units WW (Japan 2.25 million, North America 3.99 million, Europe 4.29 million)
(PS2) Gran Turismo 2 - 9.34 million units WW (Japan 1.71 million, North America 3.96 million, Europe 3.65 million)
(PS2) Gran Turismo 3 -14.36 million units WW (Japan 1.89 million, North America 6.88 million, Europe 5.58 million)
(PS2) Gran Turismo 4 - 10.06 million units WW (Japan 1.25 million, North America 2.90 million, Europe 5.77 million)

I was think how has the Playstaion's first Gran Turismo on the System each new gen has sold in Japan. It seems to me (with a sort of limiteed history to go off of) that as more sequals were released on the PS2 they sold less despite having more of an install base(Gran Turismo 3 is sort of an exception but not by much). So is it safe to assume that the PS3 first main line Gran Turismo will sell more than GT 4?

 

[hirokazu]

I was thinking about something and wanna know what the sales geniuses think.

(PSX) Gran Turismo - 10.84 million units WW (Japan 2.25 million, North America 3.99 million, Europe 4.29 million)
(PS2) Gran Turismo 2 - 9.34 million units WW (Japan 1.71 million, North America 3.96 million, Europe 3.65 million)
(PS2) Gran Turismo 3 -14.36 million units WW (Japan 1.89 million, North America 6.88 million, Europe 5.58 million)
(PS2) Gran Turismo 4 - 10.06 million units WW (Japan 1.25 million, North America 2.90 million, Europe 5.77 million)

I was think how has the Playstaion's first Gran Turismo on the System each new gen has sold in Japan. It seems to me (with a sort of limiteed history to go off of) that as more sequals were released on the PS2 they sold less despite having more of an install base(Gran Turismo 3 is sort of an exception but not by much). So is it safe to assume that the PS3 first main line Gran Turismo will sell more than GT 4?

I think it'll sell much less given the PS3's install base, but that's without knowledge of what the install base was when GT3 came out, or how many years after PS2 launch it was when it was released.

 

[AranhaHunter]

So, serious question: do you think continuing to dilute the Tales brand by putting it on, literally, all five current consoles, to the point where "300k+" is considered good sales for the series, is a good idea?

IMHO? Yes. As you mentioned, the tales series is already diluted enough this generation, Namco already fucked that up so the best thing for them to do is keep releasing their tales on MP machines IMO. Do you think Graces will outsell Vesperia in JP? As it is, I'm not so sure, but if they release it on the Wii this December and then release it on PSP sometime next year, then yeah I think Graces will sell 500k+ and possibly outsell Vesperia.

BTW, I also think that, if SE wants to come close to DQIX success, DQX should be moved to the DS or, if they must release it on Wii, released it simultaneously on Wii/PSP. So yeah, I'm probably way off on the things I think should happen.

FF XIII will be there, even at 100 $.

FFXIII is 100 bucks? WTF? Whose genius idea was this? I'm lowering my expectations then from around 2 million LTD to 1.2-1.3 million LTD.

 

[ethelred]

In terms of the most conservative standard (games made by the main body of Team Destiny or Team Symphonia), you're looking at a main series that goes Phantasia - Destiny - Phantasia Remake (TD) - Eternia (TS) - Destiny 2 (TD) - Symphonia (TS) - Rebirth (TD) - Abyss (TS) - Destiny Remake (TD) - Vesperia (TS) - Graces (TD).

Well, personally, I'd slot Hearts in there as well, given that it's primarily made by members of Team Destiny, even if not the entirety of Team Destiny. It's definitely different than, say, Legendia or Innocence.

I think the short version of what we've seen above is that, yes, we can probably expect another Tales entry to hit in December 2010.

Oh, don't sell Namco short, Charlie. I think it's a safe bet we'll see a new Tales game well before December 2010!

400-500k sales between X360/PS3 almost brings the Tales series back to when it was a money maker for Namco. Between that and Team Symphonia's push for visuals, I think it's safe to say the next console TS game will be another HD venture.

I think it's likely that there will be another Tales game on the HD consoles, but I also wouldn't be remotely surprised to see the franchise continue to be released on pretty much every other platform as well. 500k for a release split between the two HD platforms is definitely a good amount of sales... but is it that much more profitable than 300k in sales on the PSP by an outsourced developer? Or that much more profitable than 260k in sales on the DS by a smaller internal team (or, for that matter, 200-240k in sales on the DS by outsourced developers)? Or that much more profitable than 200k in sales on the Wii (or maybe 400k? given that I think we would all expect Graces to outperform Ratatosk somewhat)? I don't know. I don't think Namco really has a coherent clue as to what to do with this franchise. They've spent the past five years throwing shit at a wall to see what'll stick, and I'm not really so sure that any one of these efforts has proven more dramatically successful than the others, at least from a profit standpoint. And at this point, they've got the series, the fanbase, and the development teams all so fractured up that I don't see why they'd try to get Humpty Dumpty reassembled for a single target platform that will thereupon usher in the glorious return of the Tales franchise's status as a very high selling series. If that isn't a feasible result, then does it not make sense to continue doing what they're already doing and coming up with a "no, this is the main platform for the series" approach every year?

[NDS] SaGa 2: Hihou Densetsu, 91,547 / NEW
Is that a good number for this game? What was the total shipment?

It's... okay. I mean, as Stumpy noted in the last thread, it's a pretty decent performance relative to some of Square's other non-Final Fantasy/Kingdom Hearts launches this gen, and it's pretty decent relative to some of their other DS games as well. I'm sure it'll pull in a profit.

Still... it's pretty striking the decline this series has seen. For all the talk about how Tales has sunk from its prime, that's even more true of SaGa. I mean, Stumpy labeled it as one of Square's B-tier franchises, and I guess nowadays that's true (if it even still rises to the level of B-tier, and I'm not so sure that it does). But I think it's worth noting that this is a franchise that has seen at least four different million-sellers over the course of its life. How many other franchises in Japan have had that many platinum installments? Um, not that many. And how many other Square franchises have had that kind of success? Well, just one -- Final Fantasy. But look at SaGa now. It's not just long-in-the-tooth; it's regularly getting kicked around by the orderlies at the nursing home where it got sent after it came down with presenile dementia.

SaGa sold millions on the Game Boy, on the Super Famicom, and on the PlayStation. And now? Slow and steady downward and down.

Frontier		1,088,414
Frontier 2		675,254
Unlimited		438,413
Minstrel Song		454,657
Goddess of Destiny	101,000

First week only, but damn, what a decline. I'm morbidly curious to see what GoD crawls its way to. 200k? 300k? It's kind of sad the way Square has allowed the series to deteriorate like this -- but then, they've allowed that of everything outside of Final Fantasy, haven't they? I would definitely like to see a new SaGa game, but I'd hardly say the series has a bright future. It'd be nice to see them do a new one that isn't, you know, a remake... like the last two installments were.

 

[Tmac]

I'm not going to comment on the likelihood of this but wow this would have to be a terrible result for SE. By far their most expensive FF game ever made not even coming close to it's previous results.

I whouldn't be surprised.

SE have been steadly underperforming both comercially and critically in this generation.

Compare the amouth of great games SE had in previous playstation generations (psx and ps2). They had lots and lots of AAA titles, some with great sales numbers.

So far they havent been able to pull anything great. Have they lost their touch?

 

[Brofist]

I was thinking about something and wanna know what the sales geniuses think.

(PSX) Gran Turismo - 10.84 million units WW (Japan 2.25 million, North America 3.99 million, Europe 4.29 million)
(PS2) Gran Turismo 2 - 9.34 million units WW (Japan 1.71 million, North America 3.96 million, Europe 3.65 million)
(PS2) Gran Turismo 3 -14.36 million units WW (Japan 1.89 million, North America 6.88 million, Europe 5.58 million)
(PS2) Gran Turismo 4 - 10.06 million units WW (Japan 1.25 million, North America 2.90 million, Europe 5.77 million)

I was think how has the Playstaion's first Gran Turismo on the System each new gen has sold in Japan. It seems to me (with a sort of limiteed history to go off of) that as more sequals were released on the PS2 they sold less despite having more of an install base(Gran Turismo 3 is sort of an exception but not by much). So is it safe to assume that the PS3 first main line Gran Turismo will sell more than GT 4?

GT2 was a PS1 game, GT3 was the first PS2 GT.

 

[Cat in the Hat]

GT2 was a PS1 game, GT3 was the first PS2 GT.

Shit you're right, Whoops. Well it actually makes my original thought more valid :lol

 

[Die Squirrel Die]

I think it'll sell much less given the PS3's install base, but that's without knowledge of what the install base was when GT3 came out, or how many years after PS2 launch it was when it was released.

Any idea what GT5p sold? If we knew that we might get an idea of how the GT fanbase is on the PS3 at the moment, although obviously it wouldn't include downloads.

 

[pseudocaesar]

I was thinking about something and wanna know what the sales geniuses think.

(PSX) Gran Turismo - 10.84 million units WW (Japan 2.25 million, North America 3.99 million, Europe 4.29 million)
(PS2) Gran Turismo 2 - 9.34 million units WW (Japan 1.71 million, North America 3.96 million, Europe 3.65 million)
(PS2) Gran Turismo 3 -14.36 million units WW (Japan 1.89 million, North America 6.88 million, Europe 5.58 million)
(PS2) Gran Turismo 4 - 10.06 million units WW (Japan 1.25 million, North America 2.90 million, Europe 5.77 million)

I was think how has the Playstaion's first Gran Turismo on the System each new gen has sold in Japan. It seems to me (with a sort of limiteed history to go off of) that as more sequals were released on the PS2 they sold less despite having more of an install base(Gran Turismo 3 is sort of an exception but not by much). So is it safe to assume that the PS3 first main line Gran Turismo will sell more than GT 4?

Yeh thats something I was thinking before, and its pretty obvious when you think about it. The first iteration on a new console sells better. Not as many people feel the need to buy the next sequel, which is obvious as GT1>GT2, and GT3>GT4. That said, GT5 won't sell higher than any of those GT's, but will outsell a hypothetical GT6 if ever released on the PS3 (Yes no need to point out the improbability)

 

[ethelred]

Compare the amouth of great games SE had in previous playstation generations (psx and ps2). They had lots and lots of AAA titles, some with great sales numbers.

So far they havent been able to pull anything great. Have they lost their touch?

They haven't? Oh, lawd.

 

[Regulus Tera]

Updated All-Time Top50 (BEST-re-releases and co. are included).

Wow, so not only will DQIX beat DQVII, it will fuck over FFVII's record too.

 

[HK-47]

I whouldn't be surprised.

SE have been steadly underperforming both comercially and critically in this generation.

Compare the amouth of great games SE had in previous playstation generations (psx and ps2). They had lots and lots of AAA titles, some with great sales numbers.

So far they havent been able to pull anything great. Have they lost their touch?

 

[AFreak]

So you're thinking 1.5m LTD?

That or 1.7. I don't think it'll hit 2 just basing that on the higher price for the game. I may be wrong, but I don't think any FF has had that high of a price before.

 

[Tmac]

Name any great game from square-enix for the "hd-next-gen" (xbox360 and ps3).

 

[AFreak]

Name any great game from square-enix for the "hd-next-gen" (xbox360 and ps3).

Batman: Arkham Asylum

 

[Dragona Akehi]

Name any great game from square-enix for the "hd-next-gen" (xbox360 and ps3).

Console != AAA

 

[ethelred]

Name any great game from square-enix for the "hd-next-gen" (xbox360 and ps3).

Name any great game from Capcom that was released in a leap year on a Wednesday in July when the sky was heavily overcast following a lightning storm the prior day.

Can't name one?

That's because Capcom has been such a failure this gen. They've been steadily underperforming critically and commercially as a result of the above failure.

(dumbass)

 

[HK-47]

Name any great game from square-enix for the "hd-next-gen" (xbox360 and ps3).

Hey now, where was that cherry picking quantifier in your previous statement? Trying to avoid those pesky handhelds I see. Arent real games unless its hd, oh and on consoles, so rule out Last Remnant PC.

 

[charlequin]

It's kind of sad the way Square has allowed the series to deteriorate like this -- but then, they've allowed that of everything outside of Final Fantasy, haven't they?

Well, it's hardly as if FF isn't also a franchise on the decline. :lol

Oddly enough, I think the vast majority of these problems can be attributed to not enough corporate meddling -- or rather, a failure of top-down franchise planning. Evidence points at Square being an extremely producer-centric development environment -- you have people like Kawazu, Nomura, etc. running around deciding what kinds of projects they want to see, in what franchises, without a great deal of serious coordination or overall strategy applied to their activities by someone whose job it is to actually look at the broader picture. I think one of the big results is that you basically just see the series that current producers consider to be their "baby" get trotted out over and over (i.e. KH, Mana, SaGa) and no decent effort to make sure these products are all of a high quality, or to interweave them with other potentially worthwhile projects.

Name any great game from square-enix for the "hd-next-gen" (xbox360 and ps3).

Oh, we're playing that game, are we.

 

[HK-47]

I'd agree with Mana and Saga but KH seems just fine, unless you mean the fact that there will probably not be a III on any console this gen.

 

[charlequin]

I'd agree with Mana and Saga but KH seems just fine

Sure, it seems fine now.

The point is really that if Nomura hadn't gotten briefly distracted by being given the keys to dad's Porsche, he'd basically just be having people make different KH games that popped into his head all the time, pretty much exactly like what's happened with Mana and SaGa, and meanwhile there isn't really anybody who seems to be convincingly saying "well, how can we make this all work together" or "where is our next franchise for the future going to come from" or "hey, what if we put this on a break and dug into our vault to see what else we can revive and use."

 

[cvxfreak]

Name any great game from Capcom that was released in a leap year on a Wednesday in July when the sky was heavily overcast following a lightning storm the prior day.

Can't name one?

That's because Capcom has been such a failure this gen. They've been steadily underperforming critically and commercially as a result of the above failure.

(dumbass)

...we might be able to track one down if it were a Thursday instead of Wednesday. :lol

 

[HK-47]

Well we all know that. If SE was smart with their franchises we'd have a Live a Live sequel by now.

 

[WrathOfOtaibah]

I can't believe how long GT5 and FFXIII are taking.

I'd like to see final budget numbers for how much was spent on each game overall.

 

[Tmac]

Hey now, where was that cherry picking quantifier in your previous statement? Trying to avoid those pesky handhelds I see. Arent real games unless its hd, oh and on consoles, so rule out Last Remnant PC.

If we were speculating about an upcomming PS3/X360 game from square enix (in this case FF) and we looked at their past to predict how that specific game could perform in the future, of course its implicit you whould take into account only what SE did so far on the mentioned consoles.

All i said was, considering what SE did so far (on 360/ps3) it whouldn't be a surprise if FF turns out to be a giant bomb.

 

[spwolf]

Any idea what GT5p sold? If we knew that we might get an idea of how the GT fanbase is on the PS3 at the moment, although obviously it wouldn't include downloads.

4 million.

 

[Nirolak]

Wow, so not only will DQIX beat DQVII, it will fuck over FFVII's record too.

I'd say it even has a shot at beating Tetris, assuming the holidays give it a bit of a bump.

 

[AniHawk]

Wow, so not only will DQIX beat DQVII, it will fuck over FFVII's record too.

And that's awesome.

 

[donny2112]

Historically you're right, but I think this is the first FF to be released in that time of the year and that could play a major role in total sales when all is said and done

Being released just before New Year's has a tendency to shorten legs, not lengthen them.

DQX should be moved to the DS or, if they must release it on Wii, released it simultaneously on Wii/PSP.

So you think that if they have to put it on a home console that they should break with tradition from the last 8 DQ games and put it on two systems at once and the portable system not be the DS?

Uh, no. If they move it, it'll only be to the DS/DSi.

FFXIII is 100 bucks? WTF? Whose genius idea was this? I'm lowering my expectations then from around 2 million LTD to 1.2-1.3 million LTD.

That's basically what they always launch at.


Who thinks DS can get to 30 million this year? It's 2.22m away, and from this point to the end of the year last year, it sold ~1.6m. No DSi launch this year, but it's selling better coming into this period.

 

[Brofist]

Name any great game from Capcom that was released in a leap year on a Wednesday in July when the sky was heavily overcast following a lightning storm the prior day.

Can't name one?

That's because Capcom has been such a failure this gen. They've been steadily underperforming critically and commercially as a result of the above failure.

(dumbass)

Silly jokes aside could anyone claim even handhelds included that SE has had the same quality of titles this gen as in the past 2 generations?

 

[Brofist]

Wow, so not only will DQIX beat DQVII, it will fuck over FFVII's record too.

Not to take anything away from the sales of DQIX, but one has to wonder if price didn't play at least a little factor here. DQ games always retailed for around 9000 yen, this one retailed at under 6000 yen.

 

[cvxfreak]

Not to take anything away from the sales of DQIX, but one has to wonder if price didn't play at least a little factor here. DQ games always retailed for around 9000 yen, this one retailed at under 6000 yen.

I think DQIX might be owned by multiple members of the same household, too.

 

[jeremy1456]

Silly jokes aside could anyone claim even handhelds included that SE has had the same quality of titles this gen as in the past 2 generations?

Kingdom Hearts was the only good game from them last gen, so yes.

 

[donny2112]

Updated All-Time Top50 (BEST-re-releases and co. are included).

In addition to the Pokemon Gold/Silver/Crystal corrections, FFXII needs to have the International release added to it, since you're including BEST and company releases.

 

[ethelred]

Silly jokes aside could anyone claim even handhelds included that SE has had the same quality of titles this gen as in the past 2 generations?

Well, firstly, it wasn't a silly joke -- I was illustrating a point that making the statement that Square Enix hasn't released any great games, only to follow that up with loaded qualifiers is a pretty ridiculous tactic and could easily be applied to any other company as well. And the idea that they haven't released any great games... yeah, I take serious issue with that. It's absurd, and deserving of scorn.

As to the quality... hmm. Who's to say? Same this gen as last? Probably not. But if you look at the span of 2000-2003 versus 2006-2009, I don't think you'd find the quality disparity to be quite so high as one might initially imagine. I've never really stopped to do a thorough comparison of that. Thinking it over, maybe their quality has been on the same level in that limited timeframe. Or rather, it may be that they've released the same number of (or comparable) great games, with a lot of extra filler as well.

Kingdom Hearts was the only good game from them last gen, so yes.

That is quite possibly the dumbest thing I've ever read in these threads. Congratulations for not only beating out reigning champions like Spwolf but also valiant newcomers like Tmac -- you are truly the King of the Fucking Stupid Media Create Commentary.