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[Cosmonaut X]

Perhaps it's just me but I doubt Wii's increased numbers will be more than 50-55k next week. Maybe i'm underestimating it, but I don't think price is the main barrier to the Wii's success in Japan right now.

I think price is part of it, though less so than the PS3. It is already in the "affordable" area of console prices, but from my experience here and elsewhere - especially among the more tech-savvy - it is still seen as being too expensive for what it offers so I would expect a price cut to encourage some more buyers in.

However, the biggest obstacle is going to remain the general lack of support for the system when compared to the DS and, to a lesser extent, the PSP and PS3. It needs more and more exciting software, and while I still think that the success of MH3 will encourage further support I just don't see it having the same kind of effect as it might have a year or so back.

Nintendo can cut the price, release new colours etc. but I think we're going to be looking at short-term spikes and modest increases in sales from those measures - in Japan at least - rather than something that will revitalise the system. Even assuming that they manage to produce another compelling piece of software for the system that causes it to take off again, I still can't see it being sustainable in the long-term as third parties just aren't ready, willing or able to step in in any significant way.

 

[cvxfreak]

Have you noticed if Wii and PSP are moving more units than usual? This will be a long week until we get the hardware numbers next Thursday.

They are selling in higher numbers than previously, which is typical for the first day of a new hardware launch or a price drop.

 

[marc^o^]

the biggest obstacle is going to remain the general lack of support for the system

a Silent Hill, a Biohazard, a Sin & Punishment, a Final Fantasy, a PES, a Naruto, a Mario & Sonic, a new Tatsunoko vs Capcom, a Samuraï Warrior, a No more Heroes... are coming in the next few months => 3rd party support is not anemic at all in Q4. It's better than it has ever been in years on a Nintendo console.

Gamekult reported wii support was unexistant at TGS, so your concern is valid for 2010.
Could it be 3rd parties are adopting Nintendo's communication method, or do you all really think the platform has been abandoned?

 

[Cosmonaut X]

a Silent Hill, a Biohazard, a Sin & Punishment, a Final Fantasy, a PES, a Naruto, a Mario & Sonic, a new Tatsunoko vs Capcom, a Samuraï Warrior, a No more Heroes... are coming in the next few months => 3rd party support is not anemic at all in Q4. It's better than it has ever been in years on a Nintendo console.

Gamekult reported wii support was unexistant at TGS, so your concern is valid for 2010.
Could it be 3rd parties are adopting Nintendo's communication method, or do you all really think the platform has been abandoned?

There are some good titles coming up - though I think including Sin & Punishment (essentially a first-party game), Naruto, PES (completely mishandled release-wise on the Wii) and a re-release of TatsuCap is stretching it a bit - but they are what I would consider to be the kind of catalogue-filler and B-tier releases that any successful platform should have, except here they are held up as major third-party releases.

I don't think the platform has been abandoned, but I do think that - for a number of reasons - it just isn't going to receive the support that I think many expected even just a year or so ago, and that that lack of significant support is going to have an effect on sales both of hardware and of software.

 

[marc^o^]

There are some good titles coming up - though I think including Sin & Punishment (essentially a first-party game), Naruto, PES (completely mishandled release-wise on the Wii) and a re-release of TatsuCap is stretching it a bit

Sin & Punishment is done by Treasure, PES is the best soccer game ever but as it's on wii people don't know it, TatsuCap is rereleased with online components and new characters, just as SSF4...

I don't know why people don't see wii has good 3rd party support in Q4. Must come from an old habit to say such a thing about a Nintendo console.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

a Silent Hill, a Biohazard, a Sin & Punishment, a Final Fantasy, a PES, a Naruto, a Mario & Sonic, a new Tatsunoko vs Capcom, a Samuraï Warrior, a No more Heroes... are coming in the next few months => 3rd party support is not anemic at all in Q4. It's better than it has ever been in years on a Nintendo console.

Gamekult reported wii support was unexistant at TGS, so your concern is valid for 2010.
Could it be 3rd parties are adopting Nintendo's communication method, or do you all really think the platform has been abandoned?

Arguably, I can only see three of those titles moving hardware, how much is highly disputable.

I don't think The Wii has been abandoned, I think the DS has razed Japan and salted the Earth. It seems all consoles , shy of the huge titles, are an afterthought in the wake of the DS library.

 

[Stumpokapow]

a Silent Hill, a Biohazard, a Sin & Punishment, a Final Fantasy, a PES, a Naruto, a Mario & Sonic, a new Tatsunoko vs Capcom, a Samuraï Warrior, a No more Heroes... are coming in the next few months => 3rd party support is not anemic at all in Q4. It's better than it has ever been in years on a Nintendo console.

Silent Hill 3 - 96k
Silent Hill 4 - 67k
Silent Hill Origins PSP - 41k
Silent Hill Origins PS2 - N/A
Silent Hill Homecoming - N/A

Sin & Punishment - 37k

Tatsunoko VS Capcom - 41k

PES - Multiplatform, weak on Wii

No More Heroes - 20k

There goes half your list.

 

[marc^o^]

Silent Hill 3 - 96k
Silent Hill 4 - 67k
Silent Hill Origins PSP - 41k
Silent Hill Origins PS2 - N/A
Silent Hill Homecoming - N/A

Sin & Punishment - 37k

Tatsunoko VS Capcom - 41k

PES - Multiplatform, weak on Wii

No More Heroes - 20k

There goes half your list.

The fact games hardly sell in Japan nowdays is another subject My point was to show the support was still there

 

[Loudninja]

The fact games hardly sell in Japan nowdays is another subject My point was to show the support was still there

I think they were talking about support that will move systems.

 

[marc^o^]

I think they were talking about support that will move systems.

Oh I'm afraid this job will rely solely on NSMB and WiiFit+.

 

[jay]

a Silent Hill, a Biohazard, a Sin & Punishment, a Final Fantasy, a PES, a Naruto, a Mario & Sonic, a new Tatsunoko vs Capcom, a Samuraï Warrior, a No more Heroes... are coming in the next few months => 3rd party support is not anemic at all in Q4. It's better than it has ever been in years on a Nintendo console.

Gamekult reported wii support was unexistant at TGS, so your concern is valid for 2010.
Could it be 3rd parties are adopting Nintendo's communication method, or do you all really think the platform has been abandoned?

I will be buying many of those games but you can't actually believe that for the general audience that represents a strong line up, particularly when the biggest named games are spin offs and you list things 14 people will buy like S&P and NMH.

Us thinking those game will rule does not equate to masses of people buying Wiis.

Oh I'm afraid this job will rely solely on NSMB and WiiFit+.

OK then, that's better.

 

[Road]

Enterbrain (famitsu) first half of fiscal year 2009 (March 30, 2009 - September 27, 2009)

video game market 213.780 billion yen (down 10,5% from 2008)
hardware 80.860 billion yen (down 15,1% from 2008)
software 132.910 billion yen (down 7,5% from 2008)
...

[NDS] Dragon Quest IX: Defenders of the Starry Sky (Square Enix) - 3.925.285 / NEW
[NDS] Pokemon Heart Gold / Soul Silver (Pokemon Co.) - 2.067.609 / NEW
[WII] Wii Sports Resort (Nintendo) - 1.194.491 / NEW
[NDS] Friend Collection (Nintendo) - 1.156.103 / NEW
[WII] Monster Hunter 3 (Capcom) - 908.693 / NEW

It's really weird to still see a drop in software over that period when you have nearly 6 million sold between DQIX and PHGSS alone. PS2's slow death is not being offset by the DS unprecedented performance. Maybe because the average lower price of DS's games (for instance: 4 million units of DQIX at a MSRP of ￥ 5,980 = ￥ 23.920 billion; 3.5 million DQVIII at ￥ 9,240 = ￥ 32.340 billion). And the Wii under-performing doesn't help either.

Anyway, last year's top 5 is eerily similar:

[WII] Mario Kart Wii (Nintendo) - 1,744,387
[PSP] Monster Hunter Portable 2 G Capcom) - 1,598,216
[NDS] Pokémon Platinum (Pokémon) - 1,481,725
[NDS] Dragon Quest V (Square Enix) - 1,152,229
[WII] Wii Fit (Nintendo) - 845,238

Monster Hunter, Dragon Quest, Pokémon and Wii series game, Mario Kart instead of Tomodachi Collection.

EDIT: If you compare last year to this year (missing two weeks), you'll see how lower it is to make the top 200 cut in 2009 (10k vs 7k), which adds to the drop in revenue too.

 

[onken]

Perhaps it's just me but I doubt Wii's increased numbers will be more than 50-55k next week. Maybe i'm underestimating it, but I don't think price is the main barrier to the Wii's success in Japan right now.

I agree.

 

[Vilix]

Beside Nintendo 1st party titles I don't see any real 3rd party killer apps (games that move significant hardware) besides DQX.

 

[schuelma]

Nintendo's monthly retailer briefing appears to be scheduled for next Thursday (10/08).
.

So this is just the normal retailer thing then? For Nintendo to skip their Fall Conference this year of all years makes little sense to me, so I'm sure that's what they are doing.

 

[donny2112]

So this is just the normal retailer thing then?

A "retailer conference" is where MH3 was announced. I think you're not giving it enough credit.

 

[schuelma]

A "retailer conference" is where MH3 was announced. I think you're not giving it enough credit.

My impression based on how bttb described this was that it was the usual retailer thing that happens every two months or so where release dates and sometime new games are announced..not the big Fall Conference which is covered by the press.

 

[duckroll]

A "retailer conference" is where MH3 was announced. I think you're not giving it enough credit.

That's not the same as the monthly retailer briefings. Those happen every month, and just showcase upcoming titles from both first and third parties, to give retailers a hands-on look at what they'll be promoting and selling in the very near future. Sony has the same monthly briefings and nothing major ever comes out of them, aside from release dates and retail information like pre-order goodies, and sometimes hands-on impressions on some titles.

 

[Regulus Tera]

Sin & Punishment is done by Treasure

The original game was a collaboration between Treasure and R&D1. For all we know, it could be the same this time around.

Plus, the IP is Nintendo's.

 

[duckroll]

The original game was a collaboration between Treasure and R&D1. For all we know, it could be the same this time around.

Plus, the IP is Nintendo's.

Who from R&D1 worked on Sin and Punishment?

 

[d+pad]

Wii Fit Plus is selling briskly. Reminds me of Wii Sports Resort's launch week.

I have to imagine this will be true everywhere, given the game's low price.

 

[Regulus Tera]

Who from R&D1 worked on Sin and Punishment?

Let me boot up the credits.

it was one r&D, i'm sure

 

[Datschge]

Who from R&D1 worked on Sin and Punishment?

I only see not-really-involved jobs (producer, supervisor, special thanks etc.).

 

[AranhaHunter]

I think it will, if Konami pushes it enough in terms of marketing.

I wonder if there'll be a MGS PW bundle. Have they said what month it'll be coming out?

 

[jay]

Who from R&D1 worked on Sin and Punishment?

I asked this in the S&P 2 thread and someone answered, though I don't recall if they gave any actual info or just a stern "Nintendo made it!" response. I'll look.

Found it -

Nintendo R&D1 made the 1st game together with Treasure as a collaboration. I would assume that the sequel would be the same (Changing R&D1 to SPD1 of course, same team with a different name )

So yeah, no actual information. I suspect Nintendo didn't do much or anything.

 

[duckroll]

I only see not-really-involved jobs (producer, supervisor, special thanks etc.).

Yeah, the same things I've seen for years.

 

[charlequin]

That would be awesome if Team Symphonia were making more Tales games on HD consoles.

Meanwhile Team Destiny should keep it up on Wii.

Is it weird that this particular division of labor seems bizarrely backasswards to me?

 

[Chris1964]

It's really weird to still see a drop in software over that period when you have nearly 6 million sold between DQIX and PHGSS alone. PS2's slow death is not being offset by the DS unprecedented performance. Maybe because the average lower price of DS's games (for instance: 4 million units of DQIX at a MSRP of ￥ 5,980 = ￥ 23.920 billion; 3.5 million DQVIII at ￥ 9,240 = ￥ 32.340 billion). And the Wii under-performing doesn't help either.

You must consider that Japan (or should I say DS) had a very bad first half. The delay of DQ IX really messed up the release schedule as most of the other publishers didn't want to compete with it. As a result there were minor high profile releases for DS the first half.

Famitsu
Q1-Q2: From Dec 29, 2008 to Jun 28, 2009
Q1-Q3: From Dec 29, 2008 to Sep 27, 2009
Figures in billion yen

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         |          Q1-Q2          |          Q1-Q3         |         Q3         |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------     
Hardware |  92,17                  |138,96 (down 19,3% YOY) |      46,79         |
Software | 126,75                  |212,40 (down 9,4% YOY)  |      75,65         |
Total    | 218,92 (down 24,4% YOY) |351,36 (down 13,6% YOY) |     132,44         |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Q1-Q2 Software TOP5

[NDS] Mario & Luigi: Bowser's Inside Story (Nintendo) - 647.844 / NEW
[PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom Unite (PSP the Best) (Capcom) - 595.348 (794.465)
[PS3] Yakuza 3 (Sega) - 489.739 / NEW
[PS3] Resident Evil 5 (Capcom) - 472.261 / NEW
[WII] Wii Fit (Nintendo) - 465.838 / 3.433.135

Q4 2008-Q3 2009 Software TOP5

[NDS] Dragon Quest IX: Defenders of the Starry Sky (Square Enix) - 3.925.285 / NEW
[NDS] Pokemon Heart Gold / Soul Silver (Pokemon Co.) - 2.067.609 / NEW
[WII] Wii Sports Resort (Nintendo) - 1.194.491 / NEW
[NDS] Friend Collection (Nintendo) - 1.156.103 / NEW
[WII] Monster Hunter 3 (Capcom) - 908.693 / NEW

The always slower Q3 sold the same hardware and more software than Q1 or Q2 and minimazed the losses comparing to 2008. In fact Q4 2008-Q3 2009 Software TOP5 are titles that were released in Q3 2009. The mighty Q4 2008 had no title in it. With the upcoming release schedule and the price reduces of Wii, PSP and PS3 there is a very strong possibility that 2009 will outperform 2008. Japan will probably be the only country in the world that will achieve that this year.

 

[-WindYoshi-]

Speaking of Nintendo, has there been any news on whether or not there will be an October conference?

 

[duckroll]

Is it weird that this particular division of labor seems bizarrely backasswards to me?

Why? ^^;

 

[schuelma]

Speaking of Nintendo, has there been any news on whether or not there will be a october conference?

There is something next Thursday but it looks like the normal retailer meeting and not the Fall Conference.

 

[Datschge]

Is it weird that this particular division of labor seems bizarrely backasswards to me?

It actually is the same as last gen, "Team Destiny" does the games on the best selling but underpowered systems while "Team Symphonia" targets more powerful systems and tries to make up in sales by doing ports as well.

 

[-WindYoshi-]

There is something next Thursday but it looks like the normal retailer meeting and not the Fall Conference.

Ah yes, October 8th... which just happens to fall one day before their 2007 fall conference and six days after their 2008 conference... coincidence? I think not!
Six minus one equals five, five being the total number of home consoles Nintendo has created... this could only mean one thing - NEW CONSOLE REVEAL ON THE 8TH!

 

[Die Squirrel Die]

It actually is the same as last gen, "Team Destiny" does the games on the best selling but underpowered systems while "Team Symphonia" targets more powerful systems and tries to make up in sales by doing ports as well.

Didn't they both work on the PS2, apart from the ToS on GC, which ended up being a one-off?

 

[KittyKittyBangBang]

Holy Hell at Halo 3:ODST debuting at #8????

 

[jj984jj]

Aw, just a retailer meeting? I wanted to see how Monado and Dynamic Slash were shaping up. Lame Nintendo.

 

[gerg]

They may have combined the events into one. We'll have to wait and see, I guess.

 

[Hero of Legend]

UHH...

You guys do know that that's exactly what was said last year?

Nintendo has a retailer meeting, BOOM!!!

 

[jj984jj]

No it's not, last year Nihon Securities Journal told us about the "Nintendo Fall Conference 2008" instead of the usual retailer meeting.

http://mobile.nsjournal.jp/column/cnews.php?id=111074

 

[Hero of Legend]

No it's not, last year Nikkei told us about the "Nintendo Fall Conference 2008" instead of the usual retailer meeting.

I do remember last or in 2007 it was called a retailer meeting, but then the bombshells were unleashed.

 

[Datschge]

Didn't they both work on the PS2, apart from the ToS on GC, which ended up being a one-off?

Do you think ToS GC would have been ported to PS2 and TotA released only on PS2 if the GC had been more successful than PS2 in Japan? It was a gamble, and during the development of TotA it became abundantly clear that the GC in Japan was already pretty much dead.

 

[jj984jj]

I do remember last or in 2007 it was called a retailer meeting, but then the bombshells were unleashed.

Well, I've provided a source, why don't you? I don't even remember the 2007 conference being announced beforehand.

 

[markatisu]

Silent Hill 3 - 96k
Silent Hill 4 - 67k
Silent Hill Origins PSP - 41k
Silent Hill Origins PS2 - N/A
Silent Hill Homecoming - N/A

Makes you wonder if the Wii can build on the Silent Hill franchise like they did with Fatal Frame IV (with that one becomming the best selling of the series to date)

Going to be hard though since that is a multiplatform game which is bound to split sales

 

[Hero of Legend]

Well, I've provided a source, why don't you? I don't even remember the 2007 conference being announced beforehand.

I'm trying to find it.

 

[duckroll]

I'm trying to find it.

Try harder.

 

[Hero of Legend]

Try harder.

Well after a bit of searching, perhaps I was mistaken, I suppose as it was a year or two when I thought I saw it said like that, that I got mixed up.

Still I wouldn't be surprised if this is indeed the conference, but don't take my word for it.

 

[donny2112]

http://www.irwebcasting.com/071010/53/f078bbc3f8/main/index_hi.htm

 

[-WindYoshi-]

I'm not sure if it was officially announced but we heard wind of the 2007 october conference as early as September 27th, 2007.

I'd post the link, but it's a banned site.

 

[duckroll]

http://www.irwebcasting.com/071010/53/f078bbc3f8/main/index_hi.htm

Yes, why did you link the powerpoint slides for the Nintendo Fall Conference 2007? I think we're all very aware of what that is.

 

[Liabe Brave]

I think price is part of it, though less so than the PS3. It is already in the "affordable" area of console prices, but from my experience here and elsewhere - especially among the more tech-savvy - it is still seen as being too expensive for what it offers so I would expect a price cut to encourage some more buyers in.

The recent PS3 success with a price drop has made me think Wii might do much better than the modest bumps most are expecting. As you point out--and as Onix did in the last thread--the PS3's price barrier to entry probably had more psychological weight. And it also had a redesign and a big marketing push to change perception, whereas Wii is "just" going on sale, basically.

Still, I have this sneaking suspicion that price sensitivity might be higher than I previously thought. Perhaps Wii can hit 80k+ on the strength of the drop? Or perhaps not; just because I underpredicted PS3 doesn't mean Wii will definitely also overachieve.