frankie_baby
Member
January 2014 at the latest with incredibly limited 3rd party software throughout 2014
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Media Create Sales: Week 14, 2012 (Apr 02 - Apr 08)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
January 2014 at the latest with incredibly limited 3rd party software throughout 2014
test_account
XP-39C²
That might be, but the point is that it is very early in the cycle. The system has been out for about 4 months now (about 2 months in the west). Similar things were said about the PSP and the PS3 as well early in the cycle. I remember specifically predictions about PS3 in Japan, that it might end up selling like the Gamecube etc. Years later we know that this never happened.
Father_Brain
Banned
It's not simply that there's no room in the market for two dedicated handhelds; it's that there isn't room in the market for a dedicated handheld that:
1) lacks guaranteed multimillion-selling exclusive IPs, on par with Nintendo's;
2) has a significantly higher budget ceiling than PS2/PSP/3DS, which seems to be the maximum that Japanese third parties are willing to allocate to ground-up handheld software; and
3) faces the near-universal presumption, even long before launch, that it will be outsold by its closest competitor, which makes Vita-exclusive PS2-ish software a dubious proposition for most publishers.
If Vita only had one or two of those disadvantages, it'd be in a much better position as far as software goes. But it has all of them, and thus no third party seems to have had much confidence in the platform before launch, which is a self-fulfilling prophecy for a Sony platform, particularly in Japan.
But maaaaybe by/at TGS, there'll be some announcements big enough to turn things around. Maybe.
I think Sony's best hope for a substantial game changer at this point is the push for the Vita OS on other devices, e.g. phones or tablets. Just throwing that out there to add to the discussion some. Sony would sidestep Nintendo and play to their own strengths (e.g. they are a huge corporate conglomerate with lots of productive divisions).
frankie_baby
Member
To be fair the ps3 will probably finish up closer to the gamecube than to the ps2
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Like a game that either sold 300k or more or one on the horizon that could realistically sell 300k or more
frankie_baby
Member
Should've been done right from the start while vita had a chance of being a cool new product, the longer yhey leave it it'd be more like adding neogeopocket functionality to a phone/tablet
"closer to gamecube than ps2" includes pretty much includes everything under 12 million units.
mugurumakensei
Member
I think that probably would have been better than trying to get PS Suite on Android.
You have been extraordinarily optimistic on the Vita since launch. I have to credit you for consistency.
Opiate said:
Define productive.
Did a PS3 beat you as a child or something? You're just making up numbers at this point.
Personally I doubt this would work in the phone market because Android is so strong at the minute.
In the tablet market there is a bunch of room for that second place spot which Android can't seem to grasp. If they put the OS on their next tablets ala XMB on Blu-Ray players maybe they could have something.
test_account
XP-39C²
For sure, but there is quite a big difference if prediciting ~4.5 million units sold and miss that target with about the double and say "closer to Gamecube than PS2"
People are free to predict whatever they want of course, i'm not trying to say anything against that. Early predictions are pretty much just a wild guess anyway, so only time will tell who is right.
Hehe, thanks
The reason for this is because i know things can change dramaticly as time go by. We have seen this with the PS3, PSP and 3DS, all had slower start, but ended up selling much. Also Wii, started really great and dropped off fast. Many things can happen. I can be wrong of course, but only time will tell.EDIT: I will be positive about WiiU too if that has a slower start.
Clear
CliffyB's Cock Holster
Opiate said:
As a general corporate strategy I think you're bang on, however on a product specific solution for Vita I honestly don't think they have any choice but to institute a price-cut as at least part of a rescue plan.
Nintendo have set the example with 3DS, and the market expects Sony to follow suit regardless of how justified by manufacturing margins it is or not.
Looking at the software figures week after week for Japan, I see the Galapagos effect getting stronger and stronger. This week's top seller... huh? Yet well-received big franchises like Kid Icarus and KH are only doing so-so on the most rapidly growing platform in the region...
I'd hate to have to try and pick a creative "winner" right now
DCharlie
And even i am moderately surprised
well - let's see. I've no crystal ball either but i'd be extremely surprised if we tooting out the death march in 2014 even if things look pretty crappy in this first 3-4 months.
jimmypython
Member
I don't know. SCE, with a history of PS1/2, was supposed to be the leader of the industry. But with PS3/PSP, it seems they are pretty glad sitting at 2nd/3rd place.
Maybe SONY took all the money made by SCE from PS1/PS2 era for rescuing their other (ill-fated) businesses. I could be wrong but I think one of the main reasons behind the success of Kutaragi's time was the independence of SCE.
Maybe SONY took all the money made by SCE from PS1/PS2 era for rescuing their other (ill-fated) businesses. I could be wrong but I think one of the main reasons behind the success of Kutaragi's time was the independence of SCE.
As a general corporate strategy I think you're bang on, however on a product specific solution for Vita I honestly don't think they have any choice but to institute a price-cut as at least part of a rescue plan.
Nintendo have set the example with 3DS, and the market expects Sony to follow suit regardless of how justified by manufacturing margins it is or not.
Looking at the software figures week after week for Japan, I see the Galapagos effect getting stronger and stronger. This week's top seller... huh? Yet well-received big franchises like Kid Icarus and KH are only doing so-so on the most rapidly growing platform in the region...
I'd hate to have to try and pick a creative "winner" right now
Kid Icarus...a well-received BIG franchise?
...In what kind of alternative dimension?!?
NeonZ
Member
Well, most of those predictions expected that the initial great software support that the PS3 had would quickly dry up and the 3rd parties would migrate to the Wii. That never happened, and the system continued receiving support until it became healthy (and "healthy" pretty relatively, on a much lower level than its predecessor) because everyone was already invested too much into it and, paired with the 360, there was the possibility of ports for worldwide releases.
However, it's pretty clear the Vita doesn't have the support that the PSP and PS3 had since the start and, with its current performance, there's little to no reason for third parties change their support and refocus on it. And, really, I don't think E3 and or TGS will change anything. Even if it somehow gets one or two big titles, by themselves they'll do nothing if the situation around them is as unhealthy as the Vita's is looking like at this point.
Honestly, if Nintendo weren't so profitable right now (which means that'd never consider it), the best thing that could happen is Nintendo and Sony merged.
Then immediately kill all Sony's dead weight that's a money sink and join together (Sony doing the hardware, Nintendo supplying the killer apps) and create a mobile OS/gaming system to compete with iOS.
I don't think they're far-sighted enough for either to ever consider this, but they really are squandering a great opportunity as they wage a battle that isn't part of the real war.
I don't really see how either succeeds long term without the other. And I don't really think either has the luxury of waiting another decade with status quo as the market radically changes. Mario/Mario Kart/Smash Bros may be lucrative, but that dedicated market isn't guaranteed forever.
frankie_baby
Member
Wow so only people beaten by a ps3 (and if its the george foreman grill version thats got to hurt) are allowedvto comment on its relatively terrible performance
I agree, but I want to point out that this is one of primary reasons why previously successful companies like Sony find it so hard to change.
That is, these are the qualities and strengths which once helped Sony grow and become one of the most successful companies in the world -- and now precisely the same qualities are Sony's critical weaknesses that are killing them. Change is always hard, but it's especially hard when you're being told change the exact attributes that helped you rise to prominence in the first place. Sony's "independent engineering" spirit has transitioned from a strength to a weakness in today's convergence / ecosystem driven world.
plagiarize
Banned
For sure, but there is quite a big difference if prediciting ~4.5 million units sold and miss that target with about the double and say "closer to Gamecube than PS2"
People are free to predict whatever they want of course, i'm not trying to say anything against that. Early predictions are pretty much just a wild guess anyway, so only time will tell who is right.
Hehe, thanks
we can't say much for certain based on these early numbers beyond 'these early numbers don't bode well'. which, frankly, they don't. if the PS3 is a standard of success, rather than something which came close to being a complete failure, but was somewhat salvaged, then fair enough...
but nothing suggests at this point that the Vita will do as well as the PS3. so far it has done worse. it may still be around in five years. it may end up being profitable, but it will be inspite of how it is doing right now...
and how it is doing right now makes it less likely that it will be around in five years than it was for the PS3 at that point. the PS3's success against smaller odds doesn't mean much.
PS3 is doing good world wide though?
frankie_baby
Member
If by good you mean less than half the number its predecessor had done by this point in life then yeah its doing good
test_account
XP-39C²
I do see the reasons behind the arguements to people, even the Gamecube/PS3 one, but as you point out, unforseen events can happen. That is why i think it is too early to tell much about the long run. Nothing wrong with predicting one way or the other though.
I think the reason about "no reason to support it" is interesting when the "it needs more games" arguement is used a lot. If no one wants to take a chance on some hardware, then the hardware wont sell much.
TGS 2012, Monster Hunter 4 Portable, 5k yen pricedrop. Believe =)
Any time you can blow 5 billion dollars for the chance to tread water you gotta go for it!
It's revisionist history to paint the PS3 as anything but a monumental business failure.
frankie_baby
Member
By tgs a 5k yen drop and a port of mh4 will be too little too late, most it would do is lift it from being carastrophicly abysmal to pretty dreadfull
PS2 had no competition. Not a fair comparison.
Now define "major game system".
test_account
XP-39C²
The actual sales numbers or how succesful doesnt really have much to do with my point. My point is just that some early predictions can be very much off. It goes both ways, if someone had predictied that the PS3 would sell 20 million units in Japan, it would be the same, since it is way off. Back in 2007, little suggested that the PS3 would end up selling 9-10 million units (or maybe even more).
Less likely perhaps, and i see those arguements for sure, but i would not rule anything out at this point.
Not a port, but a new entry in the MH Portable serie
PS2 had plenty of competition. It just trounced them all handily in the sales department. Dominating your competition doesn't mean you had no competition.
By the way, I think 3DS/Vita are approaching the numbers in that "Grand Canyon" PS2 slide. Will be interesting to see where they stand when FY results are shown.
frankie_baby
Member
The actual sales numbers or how succesful doesnt really have much to do with my point. My point is just that some early predictions can be very much off. It goes both ways, if someone had predictied that the PS3 would sell 20 million units in Japan, it would be the same, since it is way off. Back in 2007, little suggested that the PS3 would end up selling 9-10 million units (or maybe even more).
Less likely perhaps, and i see those arguements for sure, but i would not rule anything out at this point.
Not a port, but a new entry in the MH Portable serie
Ok but you did actually say MH4
Huh? PS2/Xbox/GC. PS3/360/Wii. It has the same competition, it's just that Sony fucked up and Nintendo/MS made some very good decisions.
PS2/Xbox/GC/DC
How anyone in this thread can think that Nintendo need to merge with Sony is beyond me.
Nintendo is the antithesis of what Sony is.
If Nintendo want to survive they need to supply entertainment generation after generation.
Like I said....
frankie_baby
Member
You really have made my point for me though, ps2 had competition it trounced them, whereas the the cimpetition this time beat the ps3
Oh yea, forgot about that one (I wonder why?)
I don't think you understand what competition means. Bad competition is still competition.
frankie_baby
Member
Why would nintendo want to take on the dead weight that is sony though, seriously they are valued so low now that if anyone saw any real value in them they'd buy them, strangely enough i havent heard of this queue of companies wanting to buy sony
test_account
XP-39C²
No, even your quote of me says Portable
(i edited the post about something, but i'm pretty sure that i didnt edit that part).For one, they could help Nintendo make good hardware. Uncharted U would be godlike too :bow
frankie_baby
Member
No, even your quote of me says Portable
Oooh sneaky
When i first clicked on it it said "MH4"
Makes more sense than a port, but still seems more like Sony fan wishful thinking than something that really makes business sense for Capcom.Not a port, but a new entry in the MH Portable serie
frankie_baby
Member
Nintendo's hardware choices are down to them and seeing as any merger would be nintendo taking over sony nothing would change on that front
Because, ideally, Sony would have some value. It's been squandered, but they do have assets and value. I'm not sure, with the way Nintendo has marketed themselves, that they'd ever be taken seriously in the west as a viable iOS competitor. Too much baggage to the name.
Which is not to say Nintendo IPs aren't the most valuable gaming IPs in the world. They are. But I think Sony branded hardware exclusively selling Nintendo software would be a lot more palatable to certain demographics (which happens to be the demographics who buy smart phones).
I suppose Nintendo could do it themselves. But that would require a radical new approach. And I don't think they possess the resources for it. They're too ingrained with certain philosophies. The ideal, and maybe it's a fallacy to believe, but the ideal is that if you merged them, they could merge the things they both did well and rid themselves of their huge collective weak-spots.
The alternative, of course, is they could merge both companies and prioritize all the wrong things. Accenting each others' weaknesses and destroying what was previously a strength of each company.
I'm just dreaming, don't mind me. Nintendo X Sony could be awesome, but it would never happen.