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Media Create Sales: Week 2, 2012 (Jan 09 - Jan 15)

duckroll

Member
The worst thing that can happen is if third parties see the 3DS as the PSP's actual succesor, assuming that hasn't happened already. Sony CAN'T fix the lineup on their own barring something unexpected coming up.

The only fix for the Vita is to sit it out. As far as I am concerned, that is the only viable option I see for the platform. The longer Sony keeps it on life support, the stronger the possibility that developers will be more comfortable with incrementally increasing the production values of portable software on the 3DS, up to a point where it makes more sense to do a "big" game on the Vita instead. This might never happen. It might also happen too late because Nintendo might have another portable platform coming out by then, making the Vita old hat. It's a pretty grim outlook.
 
At the end of the day- despite its many added functions-- VITA is a gaming machine. The pricing for this handheld is fair for what it does-- but who wants to buy a gaming machine with no games that appeals to them.

This is going to be a tough one to ride out for VITA-- waiting for their next "monster hunter" type mass market game. And that could take years if at all to come into fruition.
 

herod

Member

I'm not talking strictly about MonHun clones; but I don't think it would be a stretch to make up a 'tiger team' from SOE and places like Zipper to create some compelling products in this vein. Any relevant genre would suffice.
 
You can replace "Vita" with "PS3" and it would be similar. They found a way to fix that though.

Sony had a ton more momentum going into the PS3 in terms of software support, though. Would they have been able to build the system to critical mass without those gears already moving? (and, to a degree, Microsoft presenting a soft landing spot as a multiplatform destination)

I think this is the most interesting line of discussion in light of the current state of platform momentum. What are Vita's possible paths to success?

We saw a lot in the initial PSV introduction about Vita as a "destination for your PS3" games, but we haven't really seen this in practice. Is this actually a real possibility in terms of Vita's power? And even if it were, would it be enough to turn the tide?

EDIT: Ah, I see while I was writing this you came to the same conclusion I did.
 
I just don't know what Sony can do to get a good footing in Japan this time around. I just think they focused to much on the west. I think this is a huge gamble.
 

mclem

Member
And just to be clear, this is not a Vita (or Sony) specific issue. Nintendo experienced the same problem with the 3DS, which is also being sold at a loss by their own admission.

I thought the 3DS was being sold at a loss *now*, but was at or beyond the break-even point at launch? After all, it did appear to be generally accepted that the 3DS - crucially - had somewhere to go in pricing terms.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
I guess they could look at dropping the OLED perhaps?
Is there a screen that supports the same resolution as Vita has, has about the same amount of power usage, that doesnt look like a big downgrade and that is cheaper to buy/produce? Honest question.
 
It's a scary thought for Sony if they have fundamentally misjudged the market demand for a product like the Vita. That's not really a fixable situation.

As duckroll says, I'm sure Sony watched the PS3 situation with a similar nervousness...

what they proved to themselves with PS3 though is that they don't have to leap ahead of the pack and come first right out the gates, they can bring out software, bring down the price, shrink components and return to profitability with time - even when their launch is a relative disaster. They'll have also seen how the Wii, although astronomically successful and moreso than its rivals, has began to run out of steam and needs replacing at a time when 360 and PS3 still have momentum.

I think they'll take a similar long term view with Vita. It'll get good software, they'll bring down the price and make the hardware cheaper to make, and eventually their main competitor may need to move on.

I think they stand a chance of doing quite well in NA and Europe, but I actually think the biggest threat to that eventuality is the Wii-U. My sneaking suspicion is that Vita is the kind of handheld that would mostly be played in the home -- I'm the same way with 3DS really, I only occasionally play it at work or on the move... and if that's the case, a Wii-U tablet controller can fill that need too. There may be cannibalisation / competition between the handhelds and Wii-U this year.

I'm wondering if things like PS Suite might help too, and whether they are viewing that as their 'out' if they need it. I don't think it would come to that but still..
 

Kazerei

Banned
The streams have crossed

Qljch.png


Notes:
PSP launch date: Dec 12, 2004
PSV launch date: Dec 17, 2011
PSP launch price: ¥19,800
PSV launch price: ¥24,980 / ¥29,980
 

duckroll

Member
I'm not talking strictly about MonHun clones; but I don't think it would be a stretch to make up a 'tiger team' from SOE and places like Zipper to create some compelling products in this vein. Any relevant genre would suffice.

Compelling products for who though? We're talking mostly about Japan here.
 

mclem

Member
The worst thing that can happen is if third parties see the 3DS as the PSP's actual succesor, assuming that hasn't happened already. Sony CAN'T fix the lineup on their own barring something unexpected coming up.

...they could try to get third parties to see the Vita as the DS's actual successor.

Mind you, that'd just be confusing.
 
I thought the 3DS was being sold at a loss *now*, but was at or beyond the break-even point at launch? After all, it did appear to be generally accepted that the 3DS - crucially - had somewhere to go in pricing terms.

No-one is entirely clear on what kind of a loss Nintendo are taking per unit, and I believe part of the thinking given for lowering the price was that better hardware sales would bring savings on manufacturing so there's a possibility that some of the loss has been offset by cheaper manufacturing costs. Would any of this start to show up in their January earnings figures?
 

test_account

XP-39C²
The worst thing that can happen is if third parties see the 3DS as the PSP's actual succesor, assuming that hasn't happened already. Sony CAN'T fix the lineup on their own barring something unexpected coming up.
The developers/publishers will make games where they belive there is money to be made. I dont think that they look a which systems that is a succesor or not.
 

guek

Banned
The only fix for the Vita is to sit it out. As far as I am concerned, that is the only viable option I see for the platform. The longer Sony keeps it on life support, the stronger the possibility that developers will be more comfortable with incrementally increasing the production values of portable software on the 3DS, up to a point where it makes more sense to do a "big" game on the Vita instead. This might never happen. It might also happen too late because Nintendo might have another portable platform coming out by then, making the Vita old hat. It's a pretty grim outlook.

Or conversely Vita becomes a hit in the west. I doubt it, but it's possible.
 

jman2050

Member
The developers/publishers will make games where they belive there is money to be made. I dont think that they look a which systems that is a succesor or not.

Um, given that this is a Media-Create thread it would stand to reason that that was exactly the context I made that statement in, no?
 

BorkBork

The Legend of BorkBork: BorkBorkity Borking
As duckroll says, I'm sure Sony watched the PS3 situation with a similar nervousness...

what they proved to themselves with PS3 though is that they don't have to leap ahead of the pack and come first right out the gates, they can bring out software, bring down the price, shrink components and return to profitability with time - even when their launch is a relative disaster. They'll have also seen how the Wii, although astronomically successful and moreso than its rivals, has began to run out of steam and needs replacing at a time when 360 and PS3 still have momentum.

I think they'll take a similar long term view with Vita. It'll get good software, they'll bring down the price and make the hardware cheaper to make, and eventually their main competitor may need to move on.

I think they stand a chance of doing quite well in NA and Europe, but I actually think the biggest threat to that eventuality is the Wii-U. My sneaking suspicion is that Vita is the kind of handheld that would mostly be played in the home -- I'm the same way with 3DS really, I only occasionally play it at work or on the move... and if that's the case, a Wii-U tablet controller can fill that need too. There may be cannibalisation / competition between the handhelds and Wii-U this year.

I'm wondering if things like PS Suite might help too, and whether they are viewing that as their 'out' if they need it. I don't think it would come to that but still..

I think they're in a much more vulnerable position that they were with the PS3. Weaker standings with developers, much fiercer and unpredictable competitors all vying for time and mindshare. It's a tough battle just to get a foothold in the portable gaming market.

Of course this is all still idle speculation. But IMO, we'll get a pretty good sense of what Vita's fate is by the end of this year, if not sooner.
 
PSP was £179 in the UK when launched. Vita will be £229. That's quite a difference. And yes. My priorities have changed and I'm much more aware of being ripped off.

Being ripped off means you are being deceived and exchanging a certain amount of money for something that does not have anywhere near that value, which is not the case.

If you find it expensive, I can understand that (though you can no longer be considered an early adopter). But you're not being ripped off.

And the launch price for the PSP in the UK was lower than I thought. Here in Portugal the PSP cost 250€ at launch, 300€ for the 1GB pack which I bought. 300€ is what I'll pay for the Vita Wi-Fi + 16GB mem card.
 

duckroll

Member
Or conversely Vita becomes a hit in the west. I doubt it, but it's possible.

Sure, but that's a huge long shot. While we're on the topic of long shots, there are many other unlikely but possible outcomes as well. For example, throughout 2012, many 3DS third party titles could perform poorly, and the publishers could panic, resulting in a wave of extremely high quality Vita titles coming out in late 2013 and throughout 2014, resulting in a brave new era of handheld gaming.

I doubt it, but it's possible!
 

guek

Banned
Sure, but that's a huge long shot. While we're on the topic of long shots, there are many other unlikely but possible outcomes as well. For example, throughout 2012, many 3DS third party titles could perform poorly, and the publishers could panic, resulting in a wave of extremely high quality Vita titles coming out in late 2013 and throughout 2014, resulting in a brave new era of handheld gaming.

I doubt it, but it's possible!

Well at this point, we can only speculate how the Vita will perform in the west. I don't see it being a huge hit out here, but stranger things have happened. I also don't believe in CoD being the great western hope, but hey, maybe it will be. My point is vita's identity in the west hasn't been solidified yet.
 

herod

Member
Compelling products for who though? We're talking mostly about Japan here.

I feel like we're veering off my point here, which is that there was not even an attempt made. Capability is a different matter, but they've had plenty of time to identify it as something that should be filled.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Um, given that this is a Media-Create thread it would stand to reason that that was exactly the context I made that statement in, no?
Maybe i missunderstood what you ment, but i just mean that it doesnt matter which system is a succesor or not. The DS also got great 3rd party support, the same with the PSP in the more recent years. I just wanted to mention that the developers wont necessarily make all their games for the system that has the biggest installbase if they belive that their game could be better suited for another platform.
 

herod

Member
Well at this point, we can only speculate how the Vita will perform in the west. I don't see it being a huge hit out here, but stranger things have happened. I also don't believe in CoD being the great western hope, but hey, maybe it will be. My point is vita's identity in the west hasn't been solidified yet.

I think unhappy memories of PSP will go a long way to solidifying it for a few million users who thought they were getting something different.
 

guek

Banned
Also, it really does look like the wii has hit critical mass. Software is still selling at a moderate pace, but the demand for the hardware is just no longer there.
 
I can't wait to see what the next unpredictable variable in the handheld market that jumps in and surprises all of us is. I don't think anyone would have predicted the success of Monster Hunter on the PSP and it makes me wonder --- what's the next big thing going to be?
 

jman2050

Member
Maybe i missunderstood what you ment, but i just mean that it doesnt matter which system is a succesor or not. The DS also got great 3rd party support, the same with the PSP in the more recent years. I just wanted to mention that the developers wont necessarily make all their games for the system that has the biggest installbase if they belive that their game could be better suited for another platform.

The idea behind my statement is about developers that found success on the PSP catering to certain demographics and whether they figure they can better serve those demographics on the 3DS as opposed to the Vita. Capcom evidently thinks this way, and if other companies follow than the Vita is basically starting from square one.
 

cyberheater

PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 Xbone PS4 PS4
though you can no longer be considered an early adopter). But you're not being ripped off.

Really. I've already put cash aside for WiiU and next gen Xbox720. I'm totally an early adopter and getting to your second point. Yes, we in the UK are being ripped off. US price is $249 = £161. Add in UK sales tax @ 20% and it comes to around £194. So we're paying an extra £35 in the UK for the privilege. So yeah. We are getting ripped off.
 
Well at this point, we can only speculate how the Vita will perform in the west. I don't see it being a huge hit out here, but stranger things have happened. I also don't believe in CoD being the great western hope, but hey, maybe it will be. My point is vita's identity in the west hasn't been solidified yet.

Somebody pointed this out in another thread, but CoD being a huge hit is pretty unlikely. The big draw is multiplayer, and when it seemed possible that Vita would be play anywhere (through 3G) rather than play anywhere there's a wireless connection it seemed as though it could be a huge draw. Now that you're going to be tied to a wireless connection point or local multi with any other Vita owners, what's the point in moving to CoD Vita rather than sticking to CoD 360/PS3? And if you make it different and fit it to the handheld, does that not risk taking away from the clear, refined CoD formula and putting off the audience you're courting?
 

herod

Member
My only other thought on the Vita is that PSP ended up being used as a gateway to PS3 IP in the West, with cut-down editions of PS3 games and most unique content getting up-ported.

I don't think that will work for Vita, a combined gateway/companion system is not sustainable while the PS3 is comparable in price and has such a large install base.
 
I guess they could look at dropping the OLED perhaps?

This would imply a significant redesign. OLED screens do not have a backlight. The whole system would have to be redesigned just to physically accommodate that.

There would also be differences in power draw. An LCD panel plus backlight would draw more power and shorten the Vita's battery life.

And considering the rate at which Samsung is currently pumping out OLED displays, I don't think there's much of a cost difference there.
 

sphinx

the piano man
is this the worst 5th week for a system ever??

stuff like Gamecube, Xbox 1 and Wonderswan surely sold worse in their 5th weeks, right?
 

test_account

XP-39C²
The idea behind my statement is about developers that found success on the PSP catering to certain demographics and whether they figure they can better serve those demographics on the 3DS as opposed to the Vita. Capcom evidently thinks this way, and if other companies follow than the Vita is basically starting from square one.
Yep, but i dont think this will happen, that pretty much every developer will make games for one platform only.



"successor" suggests "audience" which suggests "place where money could be made".
Yeah, but i doubt that everyone will move over to the 3DS. I'm sure that developers will see opportunities on the Vita and therefor make games for the Vita as well. That was my point :)
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
is this the worst 5th week for a system ever??

stuff like Gamecube, Xbox 1 and Wonderswan surely sold worse in their 5th weeks, right?

Gamecube fifth week {2001.10.08 - 2001.10.14} - 8.538
Xbox fifth week {2002.03.18 - 2002.03.24} - 5.005
Wonderswan fifth week {1999.03.29 - 1999.04.04 } - 24.864
 
Really. I've already put cash aside for WiiU and next gen Xbox720. I'm totally an early adopter and getting to your second point. Yes, we in the UK are being ripped off. US price is $249 = £161. Add in UK sales tax @ 20% and it comes to around £194. So we're paying an extra £35 in the UK for the privilege. So yeah. We are getting ripped off.

So you already know how much the WiiU and the next Xbox are going to cost. And neither is too expensive for you. OK.

As for the "UK privilege" which happens throughout the EU (and I hate as well), that's what happens when the dollar is significantly undervalued compared to the pound and the euro. It's a market reality, not some scam by tech companies to rip you off.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Yep, but i dont think this will happen, that pretty much every developer will make games for one platform only.




Yeah, but i doubt that everyone will move over to the 3DS. I'm sure that developers will see opportunities on the Vita and therefor make games for the Vita as well. That was my point :)

Everyone making games for just one platform? It already happened in the past, and right now, unfortunately, Vita completely lack opportunities. It's doing bad, and it's launch software is selling modest, even games such as Hot Shots Golf (which will have legs, but probably won't reach what the first on PSP did...if other factors don't come ).
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Everyone making games for just one platform? It already happened in the past, and right now, unfortunately, Vita completely lack opportunities. It's doing bad, and it's launch software is selling modest, even games such as Hot Shots Golf (which will have legs, but probably won't reach what the first on PSP did...if other factors don't come ).
Which platform got litterally no 3rd party support?
 
Q

qizah

Unconfirmed Member
Wow @ Vita :/.

It's going to be a rough year until Holiday 2012.
 

guek

Banned
What was sony's rationale for releasing the vita so late after the 3DS in japan? What's the rationale for skipping holiday 2011 in the west? I wonder how things would have turned out if Vita launched back in late august/early september when the 3DS was really hurting.
 
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