Support NeoGAF

[Opiate]

I still feel the Vita has a chance. The biggest problem it could face is abandonment by third parties before sales hit critical mass (as is the critical problem for any nascent system).

However, like the PS3 before it, the PS Vita benefits from being a relatively easy port option from systems which are currently more successful. I think there is no doubt, for example, that the PS3 would have been in much, much worse shape today if it wasn't so easy to port 360 projects over to it in the early days -- these not-canceled, easy-to-make ports helped sustain moderate sales through 2008-09, until the system had a large enough install base to legitimize itself on its own terms. It's still not getting exclusives, but I'd have little worry about the PS3 tomorrow even if the 360 fell off the face of the earth.

Similarly, I can imagine the Vita sustaining itself off ports through its lean days. I am not saying this is a gaurantee, nor am I suggesting this would represent strong sales; we'd likely be talking about tepid-but-still-good-enough-to-port levels of sales volume. And the Vita has port opportunities in spades; PSN games can travel over, PS3 games can be downgraded, and PS Suite games can move over.

We'll see if that's enough to keep it alive until the install base becomes large and active enough to justify more serious investment in the long run.

 

[Go_Ly_Dow]

"Apocalyptic scenario? Calm down, everything is under control!"

 

[hardcastlemccormick]

Do we know for a fact that the Vita is selling at a loss?

Is the 3DS selling at a loss?

Yes to both.

 

[muu]

The thing w/ these lower numbers is that Vita is already behind by 4mil units vs 3DS. PS3 never really caught up to 360 in the states because of the 1yr head start, and we'll be in a similar situation (or worse, as the two portables likely aren't as easy to set up multiplats for) if this trend continues.

 

[FoneBone]

That's not in the front of their mind when they are considering a purchase, but what person doesn't look at a product and think "is this a good value for my money?

They do, but that's not the same as thinking about it in terms of manufacturing costs.

And no, most people don't determine "value" for gaming hardware based primarily on specs.

 

[Anth0ny]

oh, o.k, for a moment I was beginning to worry about Vita's performance.

Week 5 software for Gamecube was... Luigi's Mansion?

November 21, Super Smash Bros Melee was released. Gamecube sold 129,377 units that week.

I do not see any software in the future for Vita that will push units like that.



Then again, looking at these numbers, Gamecube sold like shit in Japan. PS2 was a real juggernaut.

 

[cw_sasuke]

I still feel the Vita has a chance. The biggest problem it could face is abandonment by third parties before sales hit critical mass (as is the critical problem for any nascent system).

However, like the PS3 before it, the PS Vita benefits from being a relatively easy port option from systems which are currently more successful. I think there is no doubt, for example, that the PS3 would have been in much, much worse shape today if it wasn't so easy to port 360 projects over to it in the early days -- these not-canceled, easy-to-make ports helped sustain moderate sales through 2008-09, until the system had a large enough install base to legitimize itself on its own terms. It's still not getting exclusives, but I'd have little worry about the platform tomorrow if the 360 fell off the face of the earth.

Similarly, I can imagine the Vita sustaining itself off ports through its lean days. I am not saying this is a gaurantee, nor am I suggesting this would represent strong sales; we'd likely be talking about tepid-but-still-good-enough-to-port levels of sales volume. And the Vita has port opportunities in spades; PSN games can travel over, PS3 games can be downgraded, and PS Suite games can move over.

We'll see if that's enough to keep it alive until the install base becomes large and active enough to justify more serious investment in the long run.

True, they`ll try to follow through with that strategy again. But the 3DS and smartphones are way bigger threats for the Vita than Wii and 360 ever were. 360 was destined to fail, so Ps3 would sooner or later become the de-facto HD system. Wii was selling, but most devs already had chosen HD-specs for their big IPs so no matter how bad Ps3 hardware sales were, there always was big franchise X about to be released on Ps3.

With the 3DS its a whole different story, most titles can also be ported or released on 3DS and right now there is a big system-seller and price difference. WiiU being released this year and maybe an optimized 3DS SKU, Sony should get the Vita in shape before this holiday season.

 

[test_account]

Yes to both.

What are the source on this? I know about the "hints" regarding loss, but has it been 100% confirmed as in saying "we are selling it at a loss"?

 

[A Twisty Fluken]

Similarly, I can imagine the Vita sustaining itself off ports through its lean days. I am not saying this is a gaurantee, nor am I suggesting this would represent strong sales; we'd likely be talking about tepid-but-still-good-enough-to-port levels of sales volume. And the Vita has port opportunities in spades; PSN games can travel over, PS3 games can be downgraded, and PS Suite games can move over.

In the case of the PS3, it was getting those ports released simultaneously with the 360 in many cases. Certainly occasionally it was getting "last year's news" (Bioshock) but those ports were riding alongside its competitor. We haven't seen the same effect with the Vita, outside of Street Fighter X Tekken. Given the massively disposable way the game industry tends to treat its products, in order for this to be a sustainable source of momentum, I'd figure it needs to be "today's PS3/PSN games," not "last year's PS3 games."

 

[XOMTOR]

Okay, let's look at this from a different angle.

If we can agree that PSVita sales so far are poor -- and I'm assuming we can agree on that -- then there has to be a reason for that. Why is it selling poorly?

Is it the price? I don't think that's reasonable: we know the system is already being sold at a loss, and it seems unreasonable to ask that suggest that any system be sold at an even greater loss before we agree that the price is acceptable.

So is it the hardware? Sony could have reduced hardware capabilities (and in doing so, reduced the price range). This works for Nintendo. However, there are two problems; the increased hardware power is one of Vita's unique capabilities to distinguish it from the 3DS, and most of Sony's major titles are "cinematic" or highly realistic in style (Uncharted, Gran Turismo, God of War), which are the types of games which benefit particularly from raw technical power. Lastly, even if those other hurdles were gone, I think most of GAF does not like this solution.

Is it the network functionality? From what I've seen, it has the best network functionality of a portable system ever. But even if it didn't, this doesn't matter a great deal in Japan.

So what do you blame? Because the most logical culprit, to me, are the games. If you've got another explanation, though, please elaborate.

I can't speak for anyone else but the reason I won't be buying a Vita has nothing to do with the price, which I would actually find reasonable if not for:

- software line-up not that interesting aside from Uncharted
- the memory card requirement / lack of built-in memory
- the mandatory firmware updates and constant internet connection even to transfer your own media
- related to the above, you cannot transfer media to/from the device without the CMA software (no mass storage)
- poor web browser
- limited media format support
- horrible support for multiple PSN accounts

The above could possibly be overlooked if Sony had a plan to lessen the blow to my UMD library but even here, like the PSP Go, there's not much incentive for PSP users to upgrade yet. Sony really should have made it their priority to get every PSP user to upgrade.

 

[M3d10n]

A lot of the final DS games have been 'DSi Enhanced' in some way, pithy use of the camera or perhaps the extra CPU power. However when the game is pirated it just reverts to DS mode, so you can't use the camera and stuff, which for enhanced games who really cares?

I meant true DSi-only games (aka: white game cards), which don't have DS mode. Most flash cards can only run games in DS mode.

 

[Kazerei]

What are the source on this? I know about the "hints" regarding loss, but has it been 100% confirmed as in saying "we are selling it at a loss"?

From Nintendo's last financial results briefing

As for our Nintendo 3DS, the hardware markdown has resulted in a huge loss in this fiscal year. However, as we are going ahead with gradual cost-cutting efforts, from a profit standpoint, improvements are expected to be made in the next fiscal year.

And from an interview by Reuters Japan with Kaz Hirai (not direct quote)

Kaz Hirai said that the company expects to begin making a profit on the hardware within three years

 

[Penguin]

From Nintendo's last financial results briefing



And from an interview by Reuters Japan with Kaz Hirai

See, that is funny wording.

I mean it could just as easily mean they will lose money overall because losing 80 bucks of revenue, but not that they are losing money on each 3DS per unit.

 

[Takao]

Ace Combat 3D is a bomba. I haven't looked up how large the PSP's install base was when it got its first Ace Combat, but I can't imagine it had nearly 5x what the 3DS has now to achieve sales nearly that high.

I can't speak for anyone else but the reason I won't be buying a Vita has nothing to do with the price, which I would actually find reasonable if not for:

- software line-up not that interesting aside from Uncharted
- the memory card requirement / lack of built-in memory
- the mandatory firmware updates and constant internet connection even to transfer your own media
- related to the above, you cannot transfer media to/from the device without the CMA software (no mass storage)
- poor web browser
- limited media format support
- horrible support for multiple PSN accounts

The above could possibly be overlooked if Sony had a plan to lessen the blow to my UMD library but even here, like the PSP Go, there's not much incentive for PSP users to upgrade yet. Sony really should have made it their priority to get every PSP user to upgrade.

This is a NeoGAF complaint list. The average Takaos of Japan will only care about one of those things - games. Vita hasn't had a single software release since launch (which makes those "No Vita games in the top 20 lineup" comments sound like people who just want to say bad things without giving a shit about context) and the near lineup isn't great. This week has WipEout 2048, which will likely struggle to crack the top 20, simply because the franchise isn't popular in Japan.

 

[tuffy]

That's not in the front of their mind when they are considering a purchase, but what person doesn't look at a product and think "is this a good value for my money?" Anyone that gets their hands on a Vita could certainly tell that it's far ahead of what their smartphone is capable of, many people use other products as a gauge for value.

Video game enthusiasts look at a game system with a fast processor, fancy screen and lots of RAM and believe those features make it valuable.

Everyone else looks at the selection of titles made possible by its hardware, and the quality of those titles is what makes it valuable.

It's a crucial distinction. But because Sony is a hardware company first, they have a tendency to get it wrong.

 

[Vinnk]

Ace Combat is bomba, no doubt about it, but really, I'd like to know about promotion, since I'm feeling it hasn't been promoted well enough, and not only with the stores completely hiding 3rd party minor games, as the ones near DCharlie do XD

...Yeah, where's Vinnk.

Sorry. Really busy week. But yeah, didn't really see any promotion for AC. In fact I totally forgot it even came out. Still need to try the demo on that one. And yeah, I'll try to have a report this week. Last week just kinda slipped by..

 

[Mpl90]

Sorry. Really busy week. But yeah, didn't really see any promotion for AC. In fact I totally forgot it even came out. Still need to try the demo on that one. And yeah, I'll try to have a report this week. Last week just kinda slipped by..

Please, do it!

MH3G penetration in your area
3DS 3rd party games shelf-space: how much it is dedicated to them, of every kind.
Rhythm Thief R, Beyond the Labyrinth, the hype for Armored Core V, Revelations and ToI R
PS3

 

[M3d10n]

I still feel the Vita has a chance. The biggest problem it could face is abandonment by third parties before sales hit critical mass (as is the critical problem for any nascent system).

However, like the PS3 before it, the PS Vita benefits from being a relatively easy port option from systems which are currently more successful. I think there is no doubt, for example, that the PS3 would have been in much, much worse shape today if it wasn't so easy to port 360 projects over to it in the early days -- these not-canceled, easy-to-make ports helped sustain moderate sales through 2008-09, until the system had a large enough install base to legitimize itself on its own terms. It's still not getting exclusives, but I'd have little worry about the PS3 tomorrow even if the 360 fell off the face of the earth.

Similarly, I can imagine the Vita sustaining itself off ports through its lean days. I am not saying this is a gaurantee, nor am I suggesting this would represent strong sales; we'd likely be talking about tepid-but-still-good-enough-to-port levels of sales volume. And the Vita has port opportunities in spades; PSN games can travel over, PS3 games can be downgraded, and PS Suite games can move over.

We'll see if that's enough to keep it alive until the install base becomes large and active enough to justify more serious investment in the long run.

It's similar to what happened to the PSP. The first years were very rough because the system didn't have a clear developer audience: handheld-focused studios/teams were unprepared financially and technically to move from GBA to PS2-like development and console developers didn't see advantage in making PSP exclusives versus console exclusives.

But when the next console generation came through PS2-gen teams which didn't want to escalate to HD found that they could continue their lives on the PSP, keeping the platform alive.

I have my doubts on the proliferation of PS360->Vita ports. Just like the PSP, while the system produces console-like graphics it's quite below actual console performance and that can make the porting of some hardware-pushing console games inviable or expensive (it depends on the game, of course).

 

[Anth0ny]

This is a NeoGAF complaint list. The average Takaos of Japan will only care about one of those things - games. Vita hasn't had a single software release since launch (which makes those "No Vita games in the top 20 lineup" comments sound like people who just want to say bad things without giving a shit about context) and the near lineup isn't great. This week has WipEout 2048, which will likely struggle to crack the top 20, simply because the franchise isn't popular in Japan.

Pretty much.

Most important thing is games. Followed by price. Then maybe the proprietary memory cards. Noone gives a shit about any of that other stuff.

PSV HAS NO GAME. Nintendo stole all the third parties. I could see Vita pulling a Ps3 (struggling at the beginning, but finding it's way after 2 years or so)... but that's not exactly the position you want to be in. They better drop some bombs at E3 or Vita is fucked.

 

[Auto_aim1]

Vita's lower sales can be attributed to the launch titles not really being conducive to the current market, and there really isn't enough incentive for consumers to buy the system at that price. I feel Vita's current price is somewhat reasonable, but the lack of compelling software for the Japanese market really doesn't do it any favours. The only way they can build momentum right now, is by bolstering the system with a steady stream of software or a price drop. Now it may be too early for a price drop and it isn't feasible for Sony at this point, but I think they will wait and see how the west receives the Vita.

 

[Cygnus X-1]

Then the problem is the product, not the price. Sony should reduce costs by lowering technical specifications or find some way to make 250 dollars a more palatable price for the system, because the price cannot reasonably be lowered. I don't think you're in tune with reality here.

Again, this is like saying the price of the PS3 was bad when it launched, which is obviously silly. The price was so good that it nearly bankrupted Sony in the process. The problem was the PS3 hardware and its associated manufacturing costs.

The price of PS3 at launch was bad. It was. Period. You probably mean that the price was not bad for the quality of the product. Who cares. Price seen from a consumer point of view was incredibly bad, because it is marketed as gaming home system and for that the price, again, was crazy.

It's like pretending to sell a supercomputer with a value of 1 million at 100'000$ as a high-end PC and asking the average consumer to buy it. Ridiculous. You'll sell it for 1.5 millions at big companies instead.

But I see what you mean: the price itself, from a Sony's point of view was not bad. The product's quality fully explained the high price. Sure. Too bad this is totally irrelevant, because what matters is the perception of value from the consumer. As gaming system, price was crazy. You can put inside whatever you want, but the audience will see it as gaming system anyway. Intelligence is not only making a home system; rather is also carefully choosing what to put inside and what to exclude.

Same with Vita: if the system if too high-spec to a point in which the consumer cannot afford to buy it anymore, in comparison to the concurrence, then not only the price is disproportionate to the market you're getting into, but also the system itself is not suited for that market. From my point of view, this is a double mistake.

Sony can solve this problem simply by lowering the price. Yeah: they'll sell it even at a deeper loss, but that's their mistake to begin with, while conceiving the handheld.

 

[Meier]

From Nintendo's last financial results briefing

I don't think that confirms anything. If you expect to sell 4 million of something at $250 and instead sell 4 million of something at $170, you're losing millions upon millions of expected dollars.

 

[Takao]

Vita's lower sales can be attributed to the launch titles not really being conducive to the current market, and there really isn't enough incentive for consumers to buy the system at that price. I feel Vita's current price is somewhat reasonable, but the lack of compelling software for the Japanese market really doesn't do it any favours. The only way they can build momentum right now, is by bolstering the system with a steady stream of software or a price drop. Now it may be too early for a price drop and it isn't feasible for Sony at this point, but I think they will wait and see how the west receives the Vita.

A price drop with no games will do nothing. Sony needs to bring along a string of titles. They need new big Yakuza, Gundam, Tales, Phantasy Star, Final Fantasy and Miku games one after another.

 

[cw_sasuke]

I don't think that confirms anything. If you expect to sell 4 million of something at $250 and instead sell 4 million of something at $170, you're losing millions upon millions of expected dollars.

This x 100, can`t be repeated enough since most gaffers interpret it the wrong way.

 

[XOMTOR]

This is a NeoGAF complaint list. The average Takaos of Japan will only care about one of those things - games.

Perhaps but they're my reasons for not biting on Vita and even though I only represent one sale, everyone has their reasons and one less sale is one less sale. I know personally that lack of software would have been less of an issue if Sony had a plan to get me to upgrade from my PSP but as of now, it's the PSP Go scenario all over again. In the future, if Sony can address some of the issues I have, I'll re-evaluate.

 

[muu]

Reading through 2ch threads it sounds like AC never got proper advertising in Japan. They didn't release a demo till a couple days before release either, which likely didn't help. Numbers are probably going to be similar (or much worse considering it's a new IP) with Labyrinth, which is apparently similarly unadvertised.

Bear in mind this isn't only a 3rd party 3DS title issue -- now that we're past the 'hardcore' audience buying Vitas, its bad/confusing advertising is going to start doing some real damage (well, looking at this week you could say it already has).

 

[Takao]

Perhaps but they're my reasons for not biting on Vita and even though I only represent one sale, everyone has their reasons and one less sale is one less sale. I know personally that lack of software would have been less of an issue if Sony had a plan to get me to upgrade from my PSP but as of now, it's the PSP Go scenario all over again. In the future, if Sony can address some of the issues I have, I'll re-evaluate.

After the launch of the Go I'd say it would be naive to think the PSP's successor would have a UMD drive. Some may argue it would've been naive to think that years prior to the Go. While backwards compatibility hurts a bit, Vita's poor sales can't be blamed on that. It's on a weak software lineup vs. a strong competitor.

I was one of the people who believes Sony used the Go as a back door entry to PSN compatibility on the successor, and actually own a Go so a large portion of my PSP software is backwards compatible with Vita. Which is why I'm not exactly afraid to purchase a Vita early on.

 

[Kazerei]

See, that is funny wording.

I mean it could just as easily mean they will lose money overall because losing 80 bucks of revenue, but not that they are losing money on each 3DS per unit.

I don't think that confirms anything. If you expect to sell 4 million of something at $250 and instead sell 4 million of something at $170, you're losing millions upon millions of expected dollars.

I thought it was pretty clear actually. "The hardware markdown has resulted in a huge loss in this fiscal year." If Nintendo was making money on 3DS hardware, then it wouldn't be one of the reasons for their financial losses.

 

[Cygnus X-1]

I still feel the Vita has a chance. The biggest problem it could face is abandonment by third parties before sales hit critical mass (as is the critical problem for any nascent system).

However, like the PS3 before it, the PS Vita benefits from being a relatively easy port option from systems which are currently more successful. I think there is no doubt, for example, that the PS3 would have been in much, much worse shape today if it wasn't so easy to port 360 projects over to it in the early days -- these not-canceled, easy-to-make ports helped sustain moderate sales through 2008-09, until the system had a large enough install base to legitimize itself on its own terms. It's still not getting exclusives, but I'd have little worry about the PS3 tomorrow even if the 360 fell off the face of the earth.

Similarly, I can imagine the Vita sustaining itself off ports through its lean days. I am not saying this is a gaurantee, nor am I suggesting this would represent strong sales; we'd likely be talking about tepid-but-still-good-enough-to-port levels of sales volume. And the Vita has port opportunities in spades; PSN games can travel over, PS3 games can be downgraded, and PS Suite games can move over.

We'll see if that's enough to keep it alive until the install base becomes large and active enough to justify more serious investment in the long run.

More or less what happened with PSP. DS at a certain point began to sell like crazy for all motivations we know and I will not list here. PSP, remained in the shadows, but kept selling slowly and constantly. Till a trigger game came out: Monster Hunter. Said otherwise, PSP sales till MH were like live coal. Seemed dead, but it wasn't. The first good piece of wood made the fire start for real.

It's also true that Nintendo at a certain point of time switched development to the Wii, leaving almost entirely the DS to third parties and thus slowly the DS started to cool down. This situation also favored the rise of PSP. Nintendo underestimated the situation at that time.

 

[chris3116]

Okay, let's look at this from a different angle.

If we can agree that PSVita sales so far are poor -- and I'm assuming we can agree on that -- then there has to be a reason for that. Why is it selling poorly?

Is it the price? I don't think that's reasonable: we know the system is already being sold at a loss, and it seems unreasonable to ask that suggest that any system be sold at an even greater loss before we agree that the price is acceptable.

So is it the hardware? Sony could have reduced hardware capabilities (and in doing so, reduced the price range). This works for Nintendo. However, there are two problems; the increased hardware power is one of Vita's unique capabilities to distinguish it from the 3DS, and most of Sony's major titles are "cinematic" or highly realistic in style (Uncharted, Gran Turismo, God of War), which are the types of games which benefit particularly from raw technical power. Lastly, even if those other hurdles were gone, I think most of GAF does not like this solution.

Is it the network functionality? From what I've seen, it has the best network functionality of a portable system ever. But even if it didn't, this doesn't matter a great deal in Japan.

So what do you blame? Because the most logical culprit, to me, are the games. If you've got another explanation, though, please elaborate.

I might be wrong since I'm not a handheld user at all (the last handheld I had was a GBA). For me, handheld market is completely different than the console market. What Vita is offering is more like a portable console. I see the example Final Fantasy X HD (both on PS3 and Vita). If I'm going to buy it, why would I buy it on a machine with a small screen when I could buy it on a console plugged on a big screen? Unless the Vita version has something different, this version is completely useless. But that's my opinion.

The handheld market is a market where casual games are really strong. Like you say Vita uses more franchises that are realistic and target the male people. But the thing is I don't understand is why would I play these kinds of games on a little screen? All these games sell on console but I really don't think they have the same sales. Casual gamers don't care about these games. I don't know how many copies of Gran Turismo or God of War on PSP sold but I'm fairly sure they didn't sell as much than their consoles versions and they

Vita has to be more casual not more hardcore. Most Nintendo franchises are both Casual and hardcore at the same time : Mario (mainline) and Mario Kart (I see them as 2 different franchises with the same characters) are pure examples.

Name every million sellers on DS and name every million sellers on PSP and you'll see what are the differences. And then see what is going on with the smartphone/tablet markets. All of their games that are popular are casual and I'm looking to you Angry Birds.

If I can give 1 prediction, I could be wrong : Vita will probably have the same faith as the PSP in NA. People buy it for the hardware and every features on it but not for the software. I would not be surprised to see piracy on the device very soon. But that's another story.

Sorry if my English is bad, it's not my first language.

 

[Dr. Feel Good]

I thought it was pretty clear actually. "The hardware markdown has resulted in a huge loss in this fiscal year." If Nintendo was making money on 3DS hardware, then it wouldn't be one of the reasons for their financial losses.

Or the slowdown of Wii was actually the reason they lost money and the profitable $250 was going to make up for that so the overall company would have a positive net income. But a $170 3DS could still be sold at a profit however not be enough of a profit to cover losses from elsewhere within the company.

 

[cw_sasuke]

It's also true that Nintendo at a certain point of time switched development to the Wii, leaving almost entirely the DS to third parties and thus slowly the DS started to cool down. This situation also favored the rise of PSP. Nintendo underestimated the situation at that time.

I dont think thats true at all, Nintendo did pretty much all which was possible with the DS - at some point that market was just saturated. And titles like MH werent possible on DS and wouldnt sell on it. There is nothing that they could have done from preventing these type of titles to be released and sell on PSP other than releasing a stronger successor even sooner, which didnt make sense since the DS was still selling okay.

No matter how man first party releases Nintendo publishes, if there is a hot game on another plattform it`ll sell. There isnt anything they can do about it, everyone in Japan owned a DS, at one point you rather get the other handheld, especially if the console cycle is +7 years.

 

[Penguin]

I thought it was pretty clear actually. "The hardware markdown has resulted in a huge loss in this fiscal year." If Nintendo was making money on 3DS hardware, then it wouldn't be one of the reasons for their financial losses.

Yeah, but they also started the FY thinking they were selling 15 million of these at 250 a pop.

If you sell 15 million of them at 170 a pop, you're losing a lot of money, but doesn't mean you are losing money on how much it costs to sell em.

But it could be they are losing money on the 3DS as well.

 

[Kazerei]

Or the slowdown of Wii was actually the reason they lost money and the profitable $250 was going to make up for that so the overall coming would have a positive net income. But a $170 3DS could still be sold at a profit however not be enough of a profit to cover losses from elsewhere within the company.

But to me, the quote is saying that 3DS hardware is one of the sources of loss. Other sources of loss are probably due to foreign exchange and Wii U R&D. Meanwhile, the slowdown of Wii and DS sales haven't been enough to cover the losses.

 

[ZoddGutts]

That is the worst idea I've ever heard. GT is one of the biggest franchises Sony has right now. If anything they should focus on GTVita.

GT PSP didn't exactly light up the sales.... anywhere.

 

[Meier]

I thought it was pretty clear actually. "The hardware markdown has resulted in a huge loss in this fiscal year." If Nintendo was making money on 3DS hardware, then it wouldn't be one of the reasons for their financial losses.

You're not listening. When your projected earnings include sales of something at X amount, but you sell it at Y amount which is less than X, every sale is a "loss" from your previously projected earnings.

Let's say it cost $5 to make a bag but you sell it for $100. You think you're going to sell 100 of them at $100 and therefore profit $9,500. You end up selling all 100 but only at $40 (still a profit of $35 per). So instead of profits of $9,500, you have profits of $3,500 when your actual earnings come out.. which is $6,000 less than you expected to make.

Nintendo's wording conceivably could relate to this scenario. Nothing about it unequivocally says they're losing money on the hardware, only that the price cut has lost them money. As they continue to cut the cost of manufacture, the cheaper selling point will get closer to what profit they had hoped to make before the price cut (although never what they WOULD have made if one didn't happen, mind you).

 

[Gianni Merryman]

I did some maths and I have found out Monster hunter 3G as for now has apparently resulted in almost the same revenue as Mario kart 7, and bigger than Mario land 3D, as 5.800 yen is a significantly higher price than 4.800 yen.

In other words MH3G, despite not being the best selling game in Japan, has raised as much money as MK7, this is something that perhaps is worth mentioning.

By the way, MH3G has already reached Capcom's expectation for March 2012, incidentally I was one of those who said Capcom was being conservative.

 

[Kazerei]

Yeah, but they also started the FY thinking they were selling 15 million of these at 250 a pop.

If you sell 15 million of them at 170 a pop, you're losing a lot of money, but doesn't mean you are losing money on how much it costs to sell em.

But it could be they are losing money on the 3DS as well.

You're not listening. When your projected earnings include sales of something at X amount, but you sell it at Y amount which is less than X, every sale is a "loss" from your previously projected earnings.

Let's say it cost $5 to make a bag but you sell it for $100. You think you're going to sell 100 of them at $100 and therefore profit $9,500. You end up selling all 100 but only at $40 (still a profit of $35 per). So instead of profits of $9,500, you have profits of $3,500 when your actual earnings come out.. which is $6,000 less than you expected to make.

Nintendo's wording conceivably could relate to this scenario. Nothing about it unequivocally says they're losing money on the hardware, only that the price cut has lost them money. As they continue to cut the cost of manufacture, the cheaper selling point will get closer to what profit they had hoped to make before the price cut (although never what they WOULD have made if one didn't happen, mind you).

Nintendo isn't just experiencing lower than expected profits, they're actually forecasting a negative income for the fiscal year. When Iwata says "loss", I'm pretty sure that's what he's referring to.

 

[Takao]

GT PSP didn't exactly light up the sales.... anywhere.

2 million units for a thrown together Gran Turismo that wasn't well received, and launched on a dead platform in 2/3 territories isn't something to sneeze at.

 

[Opiate]

The price of PS3 at launch was bad. It was. Period. You probably mean that the price was not bad for the quality of the product

Okay, let's try it this way (and sorry to those who are now hearing this for the fourtieth time).

We both agree that the PS3 sold poorly at first. How would you know if that's because it's a good product being sold at a bad price (as you claim) or a bad product being sold at a good price?

That's an honest question: please provide an answer. I'm looking for objective answers, so "Because the PS3 is so awesome and the power of teh cell!" is not valid.

Look at it objectively, in 2006. Were the poor sales due to a good product sold at a bad price, or vice versa? What metrics did you use to reach your conclusion? Thanks.

 

[SmokedMeat]

This is irrelevant because the DS and PSP were in a pre smartphone world, the 3DS has a competitive advantage in that it offers something that smartphones can't with 3D. The Vitas only competitive advantage is horsepower, obviously this is something that the mainstream really could care less about because smartphone gaming is kind of devolving gaming as a whole. Graphics aren't a motivator for sales anymore, it's all perceived value and consumer opportunity cost. For example, why would I buy a Vita when I can buy and iPod touch and 50 games for the same price?

The same question was posed to the 3DS back when it was sucking. You can take all of that graphics don't matter, and consumer this and that, and chuck it in the trash. The masses aren't buyin 3DS because of 3D. It's all about the games.

Once 3DS had games (and by games I mean Mario) that the masses wanted, the system took off. Don't know how you can claim what the masses do and don't want with Vita, when the system hasn't even launched in the west yet.

 

[Busaiku]

2 million units for a thrown together Gran Turismo that wasn't well received, and launched on a dead platform in 2/3 territories isn't something to sneeze at.

To be fair, that's only what they shipped.

 

[ZoddGutts]

2 million units for a thrown together Gran Turismo that wasn't well received, and launched on a dead platform in 2/3 territories isn't something to sneeze at.

Wasn't that shipped?

 

[Cygnus X-1]

Okay, let's try it this way (and sorry to those who are now hearing this for the fourtieth time).

We both agree that the PS3 sold poorly at first. How would you know if that's because it's a good product being sold at a bad price (as you claim) or a bad product being sold at a good price?

That's an honest question: please provide an answer. I'm looking for objective answers, so "Because the PS3 is so awesome and the power of teh cell!" is not valid.

Look at it objectively, in 2006. Were the poor sales due to a good product sold at a bad price, or a bad product sold at a good price? What metrics did you use to reach your conclusion? Thanks.

Let put it this way: price was the consequence of a fundamentally bad decision to launch a product of such high specs that the manufacturing costs were too overwhelming, which in turn forced Sony to launch the system at 600$.

But this isn't acceptable for a gaming home system. Regardless of the quality of the system, it is inappropriate for the time and the market.

Answering directly your questions (I want to, because I have the feeling you would ask me later again): it is a bad product (in the sense that it was not the right product at the right time for reaching the targeted consumer) with a good price (good for the product and for economists; still perceived extremely bad for everyone else who just compared it with X360 and Wii, regardless of the specs).

I hope I made things clear now.

 

[Alrus]

2 million units for a thrown together Gran Turismo that wasn't well received, and launched on a dead platform in 2/3 territories isn't something to sneeze at.

Thrown together? Didn't it have like a 3 or 4 year dev cycle?

 

[Opiate]

Answering directly your questions (I want to, because I have the feeling you would ask me later again): it is a bad product (in the sense that it was not the right product at the right time for reaching the targeted consumer) with a good price (good for the product and for economists; still perceived extremely bad for everyone else who just compared it with X360 and Wii, regardless of the specs).

I hope I made things clear now.

I agree. From an objective viewpoint, it was a bad product at a good price. It doesn't even really require fancy economic thinking, either.

If I were to take a bunch of electronic components worth a total of 800 dollars (which was approximately the cost of components estimated at PS3 launch) and combine them in to a package which very few people would even buy for 600 dollars, is that a good or a bad product? Because it seems obvious to me that the answer is that it's objectively bad, and I don't need an economics degree to see that. By contrast, Apple takes ~200 dollars worth of electronic parts and turns them in to a product people will pay upwards of 600 dollars for. That's a good product. The DS was also a good product. The 3DS is not as good a product.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Ace Combat 3D is a bomba. I haven't looked up how large the PSP's install base was when it got its first Ace Combat, but I can't imagine it had nearly 5x what the 3DS has now to achieve sales nearly that high.

It doesn't have that now. Looks like it was about where 3DS is now; a little over 4 million.

Competition is noticeably tougher today, though. Looking at what else was going on with PSP at the time, everything released in Q4 2006 ended up selling about 1.3 million.

 

[walking fiend]

So, for a change, how bad will Pan's Labyrinth bomb? is it supposed to sell, to begin with, or is tri-ace a suda?

 

[boingball]

I was one of the people who believes Sony used the Go as a back door entry to PSN compatibility on the successor, and actually own a Go so a large portion of my PSP software is backwards compatible with Vita. Which is why I'm not exactly afraid to purchase a Vita early on.

Yup, so did I. I never expected my UMDs to play on my Vita, but I expected my digital games to do. Half of my digital SW is on my US account the other half of my digital SW is on my EU account. I expected to play them all on my Vita. Sony decided otherwise. (ok, ok, I know, I can play them all on my Vita. Whenever I want to switch from one digital game to the other I just have to reformat the memory stick, hardware reset the Vita and transfer the game again using my PS3 (don't have a PC, only Mac, which Sony does not support either)).

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Rhythm Thief R (In stock on January 21, 2012)
http://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B005MWBVWM/

Mario Kart 7 (In stock on January 22, 2012)
http://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/B005TESN24/