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Media Create Sales: Week 2, 2012 (Jan 09 - Jan 15)

What was sony's rationale for releasing the vita so late after the 3DS in japan? What's the rationale for skipping holiday 2011 in the west? I wonder how things would have turned out if Vita launched back in late august/early september when the 3DS was really hurting.

I don't think it's a question of rationale but more due to production issues.

Nintendo likes to use technology that is already for some time on the market and is therefore cheaper and easier to produce. Sony goes for the more cutting edge, more costly and more difficult to produce.
 
This is semantics. We all agree that the problem is that not enough people are willing to spend $250 on a Vita. It's pretty clear that saying "the price is the problem" is simply shorthand for that.

It's not meaningless semantics because Opiate is saying that this a problem for the Vita as a design.

The 3DS's problem was price. It was lowerable, people wanted it at a drastically reduced price, we're on our way. The design for the 3DS allowed for the drop in price.

The Vita's problem is that the product has already been offered at a drastically reduced price and people still don't want it. Therefore the problem with the Vita isn't price, it's that within the range of possible prices for a product design like the Vita nothing will sell.

For Vita, there's a range of prices within 250 and 400 that Sony could have picked for the device to be feasible within its design. And it doesn't matter which one they picked, because they picked the lowest one and it's still not selling.
 
It's really funny how we've gone from "OMG Sony delivered with the price" when the Vita price was announced to "Overpriced!!!" now. I guess it shows (more than ever) the divide between GAF's perceived values for handhelds versus the mainstream's.
 

Road

Member
What was sony's rationale for releasing the vita so late after the 3DS in japan? What's the rationale for skipping holiday 2011 in the west? I wonder how things would have turned out if Vita launched back in late august/early september when the 3DS was really hurting.
It would have turned out the same when MH3G/MH4 were announced for the 3DS and Vita got nothing.
 

cyberheater

PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 Xbone PS4 PS4
It's really funny how we've gone from "OMG Sony delivered with the price" when the Vita price was announced to "Overpriced!!!" now. I guess it shows (more than ever) the divide between GAF's perceived values for handhelds versus the mainstream's.

I remember gaffers saying how $599 was good value back in the day. That's how they roll.
 

Cromat

Member
The Vita has no readily-identified market. The market that existed for PSP has now successfully moved on to 3DS, the Mario/Mario Kart/Pokemon crowd obviously moved on to 3DS, and both the Brain Age crowd and the high-end convergence device crowd moved to smartphones and tablets.

There is simply no substantial demographic that is looking for a device like the Vita. Look at what it has to deal with at $250 (without memory card!):

Nintendo 3DS - $169.99
Kindle Fire - $199.99
iPod Touch - $199.99
Playstation 3 + Uncharted 3 - $299.99
Xbox 360 + Kinect - $299.99
Variety of smartphones - $199.99 on contract

Why choose Vita?
 

turnbuckle

Member
This is semantics. We all agree that the problem is that not enough people are willing to spend $250 on a Vita. It's pretty clear that saying "the price is the problem" is simply shorthand for that.

Exactly. Saying the product is the problem because its component cost is still saying the product costs too much. Sony probably overshot with the Vita, but this is reflected in the cost to the company and consumer. If the product was the same but the inputs happened to cost half as much it'd be more successful. Just seems like a silly thing to nitpick on because we all know what each other means when they say the thing costs too much.
 
It's really funny how we've gone from "OMG Sony delivered with the price" when the Vita price was announced to "Overpriced!!!" now. I guess it shows (more than ever) the divide between GAF's perceived values for handhelds versus the mainstream's.

Overpriced for a single consumer on GAF is not the same as being overpriced for a market. We discuss the latter in MC threads.
 

sphinx

the piano man
Gamecube fifth week {2001.10.08 - 2001.10.14} - 8.538
Xbox fifth week {2002.03.18 - 2002.03.24} - 5.005
Wonderswan fifth week {1999.03.29 - 1999.04.04 } - 24.864

oh, o.k, for a moment I was beginning to worry about Vita's performance.
 
mclem said:
As three questions, as asides:

How is the Vita comparing with the 3DS's original launch (at full price) week-on-week?
This doesn't have the new 18K week in it yet:
PSV

Boney said:
When was the first time DS, PSP and 3DS reached 18k?
Using Media Create numbers...
DS: During its first slow period it hit 22K several times. Had a 10K week during crazy shortages in early 2006.
PSP: Had quite a few ~20K weeks in the first year, but didn't go below 19K. Went below 16K in August 2007 (week 144 Stumpokapow mentioned), but this was a dip coming immediately before huge numbers from PSP-2000 and Crisis Core.
3DS: Week 12 and 13.
Road said:
When I tried DS family it just stayed there waiting and waiting without any response.

Maybe I didn't wait long enough?
Yeah, I think you were just getting a server hiccup or something.
 

Furoba

Member
vita just needs some unique system sellers. Just sequels alone won't cut it. Sales will pick up February / March I am sure.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Famitsu and Media Create included Masou Kishin I&II sales into Masou Kishin II. That's really weird since it should be a different SKU.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
vita just needs some unique system sellers. Just sequels alone won't cut it. Sales will pick up February / March I am sure.

With what kind of software it should pick up in February / March? With Unit13? Ninja Gaiden Sigma Plus?
 

cyberheater

PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 Xbone PS4 PS4
vita just needs some unique system sellers. Just sequels alone won't cut it. Sales will pick up February / March I am sure.

The software line up looks pretty good to me. Especially at launch. I don't think software is the problem.
 
The software line up looks pretty good to me. Especially at launch. I don't think software is the problem.

Software is definitely the problem, or at least one of the problems. If Sony had been able to get Capcom to give the Vita an exclusive Monster Hunter game at or close to launch, it would be doing much better.
 

BorkBork

The Legend of BorkBork: BorkBorkity Borking
The software line up looks pretty good to me. Especially at launch. I don't think software is the problem.

It looks good TO YOU. The market says otherwise.

The Vita has no readily-identified market. The market that existed for PSP has now successfully moved on to 3DS, the Mario/Mario Kart/Pokemon crowd obviously moved on to 3DS, and both the Brain Age crowd and the high-end convergence device crowd moved to smartphones and tablets.

There is simply no substantial demographic that is looking for a device like the Vita. Look at what it has to deal with at $250 (without memory card!):

Nintendo 3DS - $169.99
Kindle Fire - $199.99
iPod Touch - $199.99
Playstation 3 + Uncharted 3 - $299.99
Xbox 360 + Kinect - $299.99
Variety of smartphones - $199.99 on contract

Why choose Vita?

Good post.
 

Jokeropia

Member
3DS stays in beastmode, 100k in week 2 is really, really good.

Vita's in a less favorable position, to say the least. Doing worse than 3DS did at ¥25k and with no apparent savior in the foreseeable future.
 
This doesn't have the new 18K week in it yet:


Using Media Create numbers...
DS: During its first slow period it hit 22K several times. Had a 10K week during crazy shortages in early 2006.
PSP: Had quite a few ~20K weeks in the first year, but didn't go below 19K. Went below 16K in August 2007 (week 144 Stumpokapow mentioned), but this was a dip coming immediately before huge numbers from PSP-2000 and Crisis Core.
3DS: Week 12 and 13.

Yeah, I think you were just getting a server hiccup or something.

This is irrelevant because the DS and PSP were in a pre smartphone world, the 3DS has a competitive advantage in that it offers something that smartphones can't with 3D. The Vitas only competitive advantage is horsepower, obviously this is something that the mainstream really could care less about because smartphone gaming is kind of devolving gaming as a whole. Graphics aren't a motivator for sales anymore, it's all perceived value and consumer opportunity cost. For example, why would I buy a Vita when I can buy and iPod touch and 50 games for the same price? The vita's market right now (and for the foreseeable future) is the hardcore/early adopting market, that's usually enough to float a product to sustainability and doomsayers are insane to think Sonys analysts didn't see this coming. I hope the Vita gets a decent foothold and I'm confident it will, because there is a market for this product, the problems that it is a brand new market, it's going to take some work to carve out the niche and bring it to a wider audience.

I have to lol at this guy who claims he's an early adopter and is talking about getting ripped off by the Vita. Early adopters are always getting ripped off and they know it, price isn't an objective value to early adopters when considering a purchase in any case.
 
And that's the distinction I'm trying to make here.

When you said mainstream, it came off as if you were speaking of mainstream consumers, again on an individual basis. But in this case, in the market view, we're not talking about individual perspectives of the system, and THAT was the distinction that I was trying to make.
 

matmanx1

Member
The software line up looks pretty good to me. Especially at launch. I don't think software is the problem.

Wait a second. You are telling me that if the situation were reversed and Mon Hun 3G were a Vita exclusive but the Vita was still priced at $250 that it would still be selling at the same rate? Because that would prove without a doubt that the price was the problem and not the software. You know that Vita would be selling gangbusters right now at $250 if it had MonHun exclusively in Japan. That's indicative of a software problem, not a price problem.
 

Furoba

Member
With what kind of software it should pick up in February / March? With Unit13? Ninja Gaiden Sigma Plus?

Gravity Daze, Ragnarok Odyssey and Tales of Innocence might, but even those aren't heavy hitters. Added features like PS emulation and apps (like skype) might add a little bit. I wonder how vita will fare in EU / US.
 
When you said mainstream, it came off as if you were speaking of mainstream consumers, again on an individual basis. But in this case, in the market view, we're not talking about individual perspectives of the system, and THAT was the distinction that I was trying to make.

Not sure how you got that I was speaking on an individual basis (when using the blanket term 'mainstream'), but okay?
 
I think they're in a much more vulnerable position that they were with the PS3. Weaker standings with developers, much fiercer and unpredictable competitors all vying for time and mindshare. It's a tough battle just to get a foothold in the portable gaming market.

Of course this is all still idle speculation. But IMO, we'll get a pretty good sense of what Vita's fate is by the end of this year, if not sooner.

Well said.
 

DCharlie

And even i am moderately surprised
e market that existed for PSP has now successfully moved on to 3DS

curious, what market is this that has moved over demonstratably - the third party market?

I see monster hunter selling well, but everything else puttin up numbers are Nintendo franchises or franchises that have sold well usually on Nintendo platforms.
 

FoneBone

Member
Wait a second. You are telling me that if the situation were reversed and Mon Hun 3G were a Vita exclusive but the Vita was still priced at $250 that it would still be selling at the same rate? Because that would prove without a doubt that the price was the problem and not the software. You know that Vita would be selling gangbusters right now at $250 if it had MonHun exclusively in Japan. That's indicative of a software problem, not a price problem.

Well, in the sense that the price is too much for the current software lineup, it's both.
 

Opiate

Member
This is semantics. We all agree that the problem is that not enough people are willing to spend $250 on a Vita. It's pretty clear that saying "the price is the problem" is simply shorthand for that.

No, it isn't. What you are describing is a market where the only discernable variable is price, which is not realistic; what I am describing is a market where there are many variables, among which one is price, which is closer to reality (although no model can ever perfectly map reality, by definition).

Here's a simple question for you: in your model of the world, is there such a thing as a bad product? Because in reality, obviously bad products exist, but as far as I can tell, your model has no room for this; anything which doesn't sell well is simply at too high price.

It is far more reasonable to take both factors in to account. Here's another example on top of the several I've already provided. Again, this is an extreme example to illustrate the concept.

Let's imagine I live in the stone age of mankind. In this age, I find two sticks and a rock; those three items were likely even less valuable then they are today, as men had not yet begun urbanization which removed trees and rocks from our immediate environment. In other words, these items are "cheap," in economic terms.

Now let's say I take these two sticks and the rock and manage to create a fire. Fire is a fairly new creation at this point, and thus the manner in which I've used these three items is extremely valuable; I have created a good product, which, if sold even for a relatively high price, would be very attractive to other men of the time.

Now, let's say I instead take the rock and use it to break my sticks in to parts; this is a different use of these items, and is likely to produce absolutely no value whatsoever. In fact, most people would probably prefer the sticks remain whole, if anything. This is a bad product -- a bad recombination of these items -- that no one else will pay for above the price of the inputs.

In economic terms, a good product is one for which the outputs (i.e. product) is worth more than the inputs (i.e. factors of production). This is not an arbitrary definition.

Both the quality of the product and the price of the product are distinct variables which can both be measured. I'm sorry this has caused such confusion -- I didn't intend for it to do so -- but it seemed like a pretty straightforward concept to me.

turnbuckle said:
Just seems like a silly thing to nitpick on because we all know what each other means when they say the thing costs too much.

I wasn't the one nitpicking! I made what I still feel was a fairly straightforward point (that product quality and product price are two distinct and measurable variables) and other people criticized me, not the other way around.
 

matmanx1

Member
In the vein of "what could help the Vita in Japan" I have a suggestion. If I'm the guy in charge at Sony Japan I take a truckload of money and an apology the size of the state of Montana to From Software and do whatever it takes to get Demon's Souls II as a Vita exclusive. Sony owns the IP and it's an IP that has clout and the respect of a wide gaming audience all over the world. Properly marketed it could easily do similar numbers to the PS3 version of Dark Souls (obviously it would launch at least a year or two out when the userbase is larger) and could potentially have a much higher sales ceiling in Japan if the multiplayer allows teaming up on the daily train commute.

Of course Sony may have used up all of their goodwill with From because of how poorly they backed Demon's Souls the first time but like I said, if I'm the guy in charge then this is the path I take.
 
curious, what market is this that has moved over demonstratably - the third party market?

I see monster hunter selling well, but everything else puttin up numbers are Nintendo franchises or franchises that have sold well usually on Nintendo platforms.

Monster Hunter, Street Fighter IV and Samurai Warriors are all games that would have appeared on the PSP in some form or another, but have moved to the 3DS and enjoyed some good sales.

Not sure how you got that I was speaking on an individual basis (when using the blanket term 'mainstream'), but okay?

Communication is a hard thing.
 

FoneBone

Member
I wasn't the one nitpicking! I made what I still feel was a fairly straightforward point (that product quality and product price are two distinct and measurable variables) and other people criticized me, not the other way around.

When you're talking consumer products, most people don't think of "price" in terms of manufacturing costs, so no, I wouldn't say that was straightforward.
 

Opiate

Member
When you're talking consumer products, most people don't think of "price" in terms of manufacturing costs, so no, I wouldn't say that was straightforward.

I think it is, but I freely admit to being an econ nerd. I certainly feel it's the appropriate viewpoint when talking about economic concerns like aggregate demand in a sales thread.

To wit, limiting the discussion exclusively to price is vague and imprecise. Relatively poor sales of any kind would be exclusively attributable to price and software, in the worldview being ascribed here. That is simplistic, lacks precision and inhibits nuanced discussion. There are many more variables at play in the success of products in real world economics -- I didn't include signaling, brand value indeces, or any other variables which I thought might be too obscure to open the discussion with. Now we're not even going to get past the opening discussion, which sort of depresses me. This is a sales thread! Economics are what we're here to discuss (or so I've always felt).
 

DCharlie

And even i am moderately surprised
Monster Hunter, Street Fighter IV and Samurai Warriors are all games that would have appeared on the PSP in some form or another, but have moved to the 3DS and enjoyed some good sales.

SFIV would be a push for the PSP to reproduce for sure, I'm not betting against there being a final MH on PSP yet, and there's Musou games coming to the PSP in the next few months.

The PSP still has a market - it's going to ramp down but it's still there and i don't believe the user base has moved in any serious way yet. Games i'd expect to see on the PSP are all on the Vita as well - hell, there was a heavy dose of deja vu at the vita launch and a few people have posed the question as to whether Sony are really just going to go with the exact same plan for Vita as they had for PSP. Of course, we've no idea what all the third parties are doing with Vita yet - but again, i still think the user base isn't decided yet.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Neo Geo Pocket comes pretty close.
Yeah, Virtual Boy is also a good contender. But i cant imagine that this will be repeated with the Vita. Hell, just the 3rd party launch titles for Vita probably equals or even exceed the number of 3rd party games Neo Geo Pocket and Virtual Boy got in their lifetime (not that those two systems were long lived though, but still).
 

Penguin

Member
In the vein of "what could help the Vita in Japan" I have a suggestion. If I'm the guy in charge at Sony Japan I take a truckload of money and an apology the size of the state of Montana to From Software and do whatever it takes to get Demon's Souls II as a Vita exclusive. Sony owns the IP and it's an IP that has clout and the respect of a wide gaming audience all over the world. Properly marketed it could easily do similar numbers to the PS3 version of Dark Souls (obviously it would launch at least a year or two out when the userbase is larger) and could potentially have a much higher sales ceiling in Japan if the multiplayer allows teaming up on the daily train commute.

Of course Sony may have used up all of their goodwill with From because of how poorly they backed Demon's Souls the first time but like I said, if I'm the guy in charge then this is the path I take.

I was always under the impression that Dark Souls/Demon Souls did well for what it was, but is by no means a major franchise.

Hell Sony has franchises in their arsenal that would be a better investment for the overall product.
 
I wasn't the one nitpicking! I made what I still feel was a fairly straightforward point (that product quality and product price are two distinct and measurable variables) and other people criticized me, not the other way around.

Nobody is really disagreeing with you. People are just describing the same thing in cruder, less exact terms.
 

DCharlie

And even i am moderately surprised
Ace Combat is bomba, no doubt about it, but really, I'd like to know about promotion, since I'm feeling it hasn't been promoted well enough, and not only with the stores completely hiding 3rd party minor games, as the ones near DCharlie do XD

lol - i should have been clear. When i'm talking about stuff being tucked away i'm talking about Sofmap, BIc, Yodobashi, etc in places like Shibuya, shinjuku, Akihabara rather than smaller places around where i live.

That said, the local Tsutaya is one of the few places i did see Ace Combat get a little bit of a push but buying games new at Tsutaya is usually when you really are stuck for options! (highest prices out there, but open until 2am)

Actually, i'll take a few snaps of the releases tomorrow, see if they are any better. I bet i'm still getting bombarded with MH, MK and ML.
 
The Vita has no readily-identified market. The market that existed for PSP has now successfully moved on to 3DS, the Mario/Mario Kart/Pokemon crowd obviously moved on to 3DS, and both the Brain Age crowd and the high-end convergence device crowd moved to smartphones and tablets.

There is simply no substantial demographic that is looking for a device like the Vita. Look at what it has to deal with at $250 (without memory card!):

Nintendo 3DS - $169.99
Kindle Fire - $199.99
iPod Touch - $199.99
Playstation 3 + Uncharted 3 - $299.99
Xbox 360 + Kinect - $299.99
Variety of smartphones - $199.99 on contract

Why choose Vita?
Well said as well.
 
Are we still arguing about this?

Nobody wants to buy the Vita at its current price, but it's already selling at a loss, so Sony can't really afford a price cut.

That's all there is to it. It doesn't take paragraphs of debate to get this cleared up, guys.
 

matmanx1

Member
I was always under the impression that Dark Souls/Demon Souls did well for what it was, but is by no means a major franchise.

Hell Sony has franchises in their arsenal that would be a better investment for the overall product.

My assumption is that all of the usual suspects are either in planning stages or already in production. I can't imagine that this device won't get the usual Sony first and second party stuff that all of their systems get so I was going for something that's maybe not already being thought about.

I'm curious what franchises (for Japan, since this is a Sales-Age thread) Sony has that could help out in Japan beyond Gran Turismo but I might be forgetting something.

3rd Party wise I would hope that we will see the eventual announcements of the next Phantasy Star portable installment (Victory?) and possibly another Valkyria Chronicles that's more like the original PS3 version in scope. I'd also hope that we will see another FF Type game on the Vita. Of course this is all conjecture at this point but any and all of them could help Sony move systems and gain traction in Japan.
 
When you're talking consumer products, most people don't think of "price" in terms of manufacturing costs, so no, I wouldn't say that was straightforward.

That's not in the front of their mind when they are considering a purchase, but what person doesn't look at a product and think "is this a good value for my money?" Anyone that gets their hands on a Vita could certainly tell that it's far ahead of what their smartphone is capable of, many people use other products as a gauge for value. When you are comparing it to say, a 3DS or a smartphone, 250 dollars doesn't seem like a lot to ask really. Especially when you consider smartphones are actually 600-800 dollars, you just get a nice discount for commiting to giving the provider 2k over the next two years.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
lol - i should have been clear. When i'm talking about stuff being tucked away i'm talking about Sofmap, BIc, Yodobashi, etc in places like Shibuya, shinjuku, Akihabara rather than smaller places around where i live.

That said, the local Tsutaya is one of the few places i did see Ace Combat get a little bit of a push but buying games new at Tsutaya is usually when you really are stuck for options! (highest prices out there, but open until 2am)

Actually, i'll take a few snaps of the releases tomorrow, see if they are any better. I bet i'm still getting bombarded with MH, MK and ML.

Ah, now it's clear enough XD
Eh, but didn't you say also that MH has started invading also PSP shelves in the stores you visit? I fear it's just MH occupying everythin, since it's MH XD

I mean: MK and Mario have big shelves space as usual, but MH has much much more of them, invading other ones; that's what I'm saying :p
 

DCharlie

And even i am moderately surprised
Why choose Vita?

Well, not that I'm representing a huge demographic but i believe it's a growing one: i just don't have time to play games at home any more, between job and raising a kid sitting down infront of a console at night is extremely difficult if not impossible to do.

Now the DS and PSP had been filling in quite nicely allowing for gaming on the go. The 3DS was a nice upgrade and has a great set of games, but the Vita is different enough in what it offers and having something with a "power angle" for playing during commutes is a god send.

I know that's not a massive bankable demographic, but neither do i think that's the only demographic Sony can pull in. In the end i expect sony to keep throwing different types of games on the machine to pull in people gradually and i'm positive that 3rd parties will provide the support with most of them possibly already well on their way to having games ready to go.

I'm not concerned about the Vita's future - at all.

Eh, but didn't you say also that MH has started invading also PSP shelves in the stores you visit? I fear it's just MH occupying everythin, since it's MH XD

nope - the MH -secondary merchandise- in a fair number of stores usually lives somewhere near the PSP area but (especially in Yodobashis) they've moved over to the Nintendo area and, in Shinjuku's Yodobashi's case, moved onto the Nintendo floor.

MH -is- just massive though - but stores like Tsutaya Shibuya are still pushing the hell out of it and the new releases just aren't getting the push they need. First thing you get hit by coming down the escalator is a MH display (albeit with MH3rdP along side but it's definitely for 3DS MH)
 
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