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[goldage]

you act like being the best selling ps4 game is something horrible

it is when the game is overshipped and has to sell through bomba bins

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Seems rather conservative. Switch looks set to be able to follow the PS4's pace which is likely gonna break the 80 million barrier in another 2 years. I'm pretty sure the switch will be around for as long as the 3ds was.

lol what? These extrapolations. At least wait till its not supply constrained globally.

Switch will probably pass xbox one in a few years or so.

Unlikely. Though it will be hard to find if it ever does as MS don't give numbers.

 

[Cerium]

Unlikely. Though it will be hard to find if it ever does as MS don't give numbers.

Unlikely? It's pretty much a certainty.

 

[goldage]

lol what? These extrapolations. At least wait till its not supply constrained globally.



Unlikely. Though it will be hard to find if it ever does as MS don't give numbers.

it's selling what ps4 did at launch with supply constraints

ps4 level of performance isn't really unrealistic even if a bit premature

it certainly makes more sense than you saying "unlikely" regarding switch outselling xbone

 

[cheesekao]

lol what? These extrapolations. At least wait till its not supply constrained globally.

It's just my preliminary assessment. I'm prepared to revise it as the years go on.

it's selling what ps4 did at launch with supply constraints

Eh, it did not but it's an apples and oranges comparison due to the launch dates.

 

[Mario007]

it's selling what ps4 did at launch with supply constraints

ps4 level of performance isn't really unrealistic even if a bit premature

it certainly makes more sense than you saying "unlikely" regarding switch outselling xbone

It is definitely not selling what ps4 was selling at launch. If only because the launch periods are different.

 

[Ōkami]

YSO expects Tekken 7's first week to be below 70k, Seiken Densetsu below 20k.

Atlus should make a new Persona fighting game, it should have no problem becoming the best selling fighting in PS4.

 

[Passose]

It is definitely not selling what ps4 was selling at launch. If only because the launch periods are different.

tbf the ps4 obviously sold more because it launched during the holiday season

 

[Oregano]

I don't think it's too unlikely for Switch to outsell Xbox One. Japan gives Switch a massive advantage.

 

[Eolz]

YSO expects Tekken 7's first week to be below 70k, Seiken Densetsu below 20k.

Atlus should make a new Persona fighting game, it should have no problem becoming the best selling fighting in PS4.

Uhoh, time to change some prediction league posts?
And please, no more Persona figthing game. Just make a global SMT fighting game instead.

 

[Fdkn]

it's selling what ps4 did at launch with supply constraints

lol

Looking at April and what we know about May, by next quarter shipments data could be around 2:1 WW in favour of ps4, and ps4 was supply constrained in Europe for almost 6months

 

[Passose]

Uhoh, time to change some prediction league posts?
And please, no more Persona figthing game. Just make a global SMT fighting game instead.

HEY HOO Fighting League

 

[cw_sasuke]

Unlikely. Though it will be hard to find if it ever does as MS don't give numbers.

lol

You might check how many consoles/handhelds Nintendo sells per generation. Unless you expect the One to sell more than 50-60m consoles.

 

[goldage]

It is definitely not selling what ps4 was selling at launch. If only because the launch periods are different.

It's just my preliminary assessment. I'm prepared to revise it as the years go on.


Eh, it did not but it's an apples and oranges comparison due to the launch dates.

2.1m after 2 weeks in na/eu for ps4
4.5m after 6 weeks

1.5m after 1 week in na/eu/japan for switch
2.7m after 4 weeks

keep in mind switch is still sold out, you can tell the pace is similar to ps4 going by these numbers, with enough stock switch would have sold at minimum the same

ps4 even had the benefit of the holidays

switch is also outselling the ps4 in japan launch-aligned and japan is a good market indicator for the rest of the world

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

lol

You might check how many consoles/handhelds Nintendo sells per generation. Unless you expect the One to sell more than 50-60m consoles.

Read. He said a few years, not LTD.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

Honestly it doesnt really matter if Switch sells 20 million less than PS4 or 20 million more. The main takeaway here is that Nintendo is going to return to its high profit business and they're aren't going anywhere. With the Wii U and even the disappointing 3DS we weren't sure how long Nintendo could keep this up. That question is no longer necessary.

Nintendo probably only needed around 35-40 million Switch to stay in the hardware business, they're going to crush that number.

 

[cw_sasuke]

Read. He said a few years, not LTD.

They are on track to sell 20m after year 1...a few years puts the at +50m if they keep the momentum going. If Nintendo add a cheaper 200 bucks Switch to replace the 3DS they will catch up very fast, considering how its selling at 300 right now.

Honestly it doesnt really matter if Switch sells 20 million less than PS4 or 20 million more. The main takeaway here is that Nintendo is going to return to its high profit business and they're aren't going anywhere. With the Wii U and even the disappointing 3DS we weren't sure how long Nintendo could keep this up. That question is no longer necessary.

Nintendo probably only needed around 35-40 million Switch to stay in the hardware business, they're going to crush that number.

Especially since they can keep milking the 3DS until they can offer the Switch at a lower price...and are making their moves on mobile. So yeah they are set up quite well for the next years.

 

[Oregano]

Read. He said a few years, not LTD.

If Switch ships anywhere close to the 18m figure the Financial Times put out then a few years would be all it would take.

 

[cheesekao]

2.1m after 2 weeks in na/eu for ps4
4.5m after 6 weeks

1.5m after 1 week in na/eu/japan for switch
2.7m after 4 weeks

keep in mind switch is still sold out, you can tell the pace is similar to ps4 going by these numbers, with enough stock switch would have sold at minimum the same

ps4 even had the benefit of the holidays

switch is also outselling the ps4 in japan launch-aligned and japan is a good market indicator for the rest of the world

I mean, you're still wrong and I myself have already stated that it's an uneven comparison due to the difference in launch dates.

As for the bolded, that may be true for the Switch but it's pretty damn shitty indicator for the PS4.

 

[goldage]

lol

Looking at April and what we know about May, by next quarter shipments data could be around 2:1 WW in favour of ps4, and ps4 was supply constrained in Europe for almost 6months

we are talking about the pace that it is selling, it is obvious supply is constraining switch potential sales

ps4 wasn't supply constrained as much as the switch currently is

I mean, you're still wrong and I myself have already stated that it's an uneven comparison due to the difference in launch dates.

As for the bolded, that may be true for the Switch but it's pretty damn shitty indicator for the PS4.

how am i wrong exactly?

well theres always exceptions, eg. xbone

with the state of the home console market in japan it isn't really a surprise

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

They are on track to sell 20m after year 1...a few years puts the at +50m if they keep the momentum going. If Nintendo add a cheaper 200 bucks Switch to replace the 3DS they will catch up very fast, considering how its selling at 300 right now.

Are you high? Peak PS4 was 20 million shipment. Wii shipped 20 million+ in only 2 of its years. And you think SW is on track to sell 20 million in its first year hahaha

If Switch ships anywhere close to the 18m figure the Financial Times put out then a few years would be all it would take.

Thats production, not shipment.

 

[ZSaberLink]

I don't think it's too unlikely for Switch to outsell Xbox One. Japan gives Switch a massive advantage.

Nintendo probably only needed around 35-40 million Switch to stay in the hardware business, they're going to crush that number.

Well if the Switch does remain Nintendo's only dedicated device, they're betting on it at least outselling the XB1. Nintendo at least needs some growth from (3DS + Wii U) --> Switch, otherwise things are not going to look good for them, and that would be about 80M. It'll be hard to find growth in Japan, but that's where the West comes in, since the 3DS didn't do as well there as it could have.

Are you high? Peak PS4 was 20 million shipment. Wii shipped 20 million+ in only 2 of its years. And you think SW is on track to sell 20 million in its first year hahaha



Thats production, not shipment.

Yet Nintendo's international presence is horrible compared to Sony's right? I thought that Sony actually expanded their reach in undertapped areas this generation, which helped them quite a bit. Nintendo still basically only properly supports JP & the US/Canada, and has spotty support in Europe and the ROTW.

 

[cw_sasuke]

Are you high? Peak PS4 was 20 million shipment. Wii shipped 20 million+ in only 2 of its years. And you think SW is on track to sell 20 million in its first year hahaha

Thats production, not shipment.

So you think they will produce 21m Switches by March 2018...and not ship most of them ? I dont even know why you are bringing up Wii or PS4 ...or what they have in common with the Switch.

 

[Oregano]

Are you high? Peak PS4 was 20 million shipment. Wii shipped 20 million+ in only 2 of its years. And you think SW is on track to sell 20 million in its first year hahaha



Thats production, not shipment.

Nintendo isn't going to have millions waiting around. Shipment wouldn't be quite 18m but it wouldn't be far off.

They produced 3 million in March and shipped 2.75m.

 

[cheesekao]

how am i wrong exactly?

well theres always exceptions, eg. xbone

with the state of the home console market in japan it isn't really a surprise

This was your post

it's selling what ps4 did at launch with supply constraints

This is wrong. I believe you meant to say "The Switch is keeping up with the PS4's pace". That may or may not be true. We have no idea how well it would've sold had the Switch not been supply constrained.

However, if the rumor that Nintendo is planning to produce 18m units this fiscal year is true, then that would mean that the Switch will be selling at a similar pace as the PS4.

 

[goldage]

Are you high? Peak PS4 was 20 million shipment. Wii shipped 20 million+ in only 2 of its years. And you think SW is on track to sell 20 million in its first year hahaha



Thats production, not shipment.

switch will be at 12.7m if they ship the 10m they intend

but with the way the system is selling i expect them to increase production and end up shipping at least 15m+

might not be 20m but it'll be closer to 20m than 10m at least and this tells us nothing about switch's potential yearly sales since sales are depending entirely on supply

20m for switch's second full year is a possibility

This was your post

This is wrong. I believe you meant to say "The Switch is keeping up with the PS4's pace". That may or may not be true. We have no idea how well it would've sold had the Switch not been supply constrained.

However, if the rumor that Nintendo is planning to produce 18m units this fiscal year is true, then that would mean that the Switch will be selling at a similar pace as the PS4.

well of course im talking about the pace, switch is too supply constrained to compare to ps4 in numbers, especially when ps4 launched during the holidays

sure we don't know exactly how much it would have sold if there was supply but i think at the minimum it would have done ps4 numbers, i mean the system is still supply constrained, that tells us alot doesn't it?

 

[cheesekao]

well of course im talking about the pace, switch is too supply constrained to compare to ps4 in numbers, especially when ps4 launched during the holidays

sure we don't know exactly how much it would have sold if there was supply but i think at the minimum it would have done ps4 numbers, i mean the system is still supply constrained, that tells us alot doesn't it?

The PS4 was heavily supply constrained as well for a few months. It's really hard to tell how much the 2 would have sold under optimal conditions.

 

[Chris1964]

Week 22, 2017 (May 29 - Jun 4)

new releases

{2017.05.30}
[PSV] Ys Origin _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (Nihon Falcom) (¥2.037)

{2017.05.31}
[3DS] Alchemic Dungeons _3DS Download Software_ |DL| <ACT> (Flyhigh Works) (¥462)
[WIU] Vaccine _Wii U Download Software_ |DL| <ADV> (Rainy Frog) (¥925)
[PS4] Vaccine _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (Rainy Frog) (¥925)

{2017.06.01}
[3DS] Tales of the Abyss [Welcome Price!!] <RPG> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥2.800)
[3DS] Tales of the Abyss (&#949 _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| [Welcome Price!!] <RPG> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥2.800)
[3DS] Ace Combat: Assault Horizon Legacy+ [Welcome Price!!] <STG> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥2.800)
[3DS] Ace Combat: Assault Horizon Legacy+ (&#949 _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| [Welcome Price!!] <STG> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥2.800)
[3DS] Ridge Racer 3D [Welcome Price!!] <RCE> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥2.800)
[3DS] Ridge Racer 3D (&#949 _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <RCE> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥2.800)
[3DS] Attack on Titan: The Last Wings of Mankind - Chain [Spike Chunsoft the Best] <ACT> (Spike Chunsoft) (¥2.980)
[3DS] Attack on Titan: The Last Wings of Mankind - Chain (&#949 _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| [Spike Chunsoft the Best] <ACT> (Spike Chunsoft) (¥2.980)
[PSV] Sukitomo. Tsukiuta. 12 Memories <ADV> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥6.800)
[PSV] Sukitomo. Tsukiuta. 12 Memories (&#949 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥6.800)
[PSV] Shiin <ADV> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) (¥4.800)
[PSV] Shiin (&#949 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) (¥4.000)
[NSW] Seiken Densetsu Collection <Seiken Densetsu: Final Fantasy Adventure \ Seiken Densetsu 2: Secret of Mana \ Seiken Densetsu 3> <RPG> (Square Enix) (¥4.800)
[NSW] Seiken Densetsu Collection <Seiken Densetsu: Final Fantasy Adventure \ Seiken Densetsu 2: Secret of Mana \ Seiken Densetsu 3> (&#949 _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (Square Enix) (¥4.800)
[NSW] Little Inferno _Nintendo Switch Download Software_ |DL| <PZL> (Flyhigh Works) (¥900)
[PS4] Tekken 7 <FTG> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥8.200)
[PS4] Tekken 7 (&#949 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <FTG> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥8.200)
[PS4] Tales of Berseria [Welcome Price!!] <RPG> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥3.800)
[PS4] Tales of Berseria (&#949 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| [Welcome Price!!] <RPG> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥3.800)
[PS4] FIFA 17 [EA Best Hits] <SPT> (Electronic Arts) (¥4.800)
[PS4] FIFA 17 (&#949 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| [EA Best Hits] <SPT> (Electronic Arts) (¥4.800)
[XB1] Tekken 7 <FTG> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥8.200)
[XB1] Tekken 7 (&#949 _Download Version_ |DL| <FTG> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥8.200)
[PS3] Tales of Berseria (&#949 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| [Welcome Price!!] <RPG> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥3.800)
___

YSO predictions
01. [PS4] Tekken 7 < 70k (average 65k)
02. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe < 25k (average 20k)
03. [NSW] Seiken Densetsu Collection < 20k (average 15k)

 

[KuwabaraTheMan]

Are you high? Peak PS4 was 20 million shipment. Wii shipped 20 million+ in only 2 of its years. And you think SW is on track to sell 20 million in its first year hahaha



Thats production, not shipment.

Nintendo is not planning to produce 20 million Switches by the end of next March only to have most of them sitting around. If they're planning to make that many, it means that they believe that they can sell around that number. And given what we've seen so far, plus all of the software coming, there's no reason to think they can't.

 

[Sandfox]

The low expectations for Tekken are kinda sad to see, but expected.

 

[Eolz]

Nintendo is not planning to produce 20 million Switches by the end of next March only to have most of them sitting around. If they're planning to make that many, it means that they believe that they can sell around that number. And given what we've seen so far, plus all of the software coming, there's no reason to think they can't.

This.
Hell, they know too well how damaging it can be to sit on too much shipment after the WiiU...

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

So you think they will produce 21m Switches by March 2018...and not ship most of them ? I dont even know why you are bringing up Wii or PS4 ...or what they have in common with the Switch.

To show you the hilarity of saying SW is on track to sell 20 million+ in its first full FY.

Nintendo isn't going to have millions waiting around. Shipment wouldn't be quite 18m but it wouldn't be far off.

They produced 3 million in March and shipped 2.75m.

Its not up to Nintendo. If demand is not met in a timely manner, they will be stocked.

 

[Chris1964]

Sony had 3m+ PS4 sitting on shelves last FY, I'm sure Nintendo can also do channel stuffing in holidays with Switch too if demand suddenly drops.

 

[Oregano]

To show you the hilarity of saying SW is on track to sell 20 million+ in its first full FY.



Its not up to Nintendo. If demand is not met in a timely manner, they will be stocked.

You think they're almost double production with no idea about what the demand is?

or is Switch going to grind to halt?

Sony had 3m+ PS4 sitting on shelves last FY, I'm sure Nintendo can also do channel stuffing in holidays with Switch too if demand suddenly drops.

Fake news. Sony-sama would never do that.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

You think they're almost double production with no idea about what the demand is?

or is Switch going to grind to halt?



Fake news. Sony-sama would never do that.

Its a prediction of demand.

 

[Chris1964]

The low expectations for Tekken are kinda sad to see, but expected.

Tekken just continues its way to irrelevance, it's not anything surprising.

 

[xequalsy]

Looks like another 20k-ish week for Switch then based on those MK8DX numbers.

 

[Ōkami]

It really doesn't seem like all fighters on PS4 combined will sell as much as Smash Bros. on Wii U.

No individual one will sell more than Pokken, not at least until a Persona fighting game.

 

[13ruce]

It really doesn't seem like all fighters on PS4 combined will sell as much as Smash Bros. on Wii U.

No individual one will sell more than Pokken, not at least until a Persona fighting game.

Arms has a change to beat pokken.

 

[Oregano]

Its a prediction of demand.

So you're expecting them to dramatically increase supply without the demand to meet it despite the fact they can't meet current demand?

ok

 

[Hero of Legend]

Would a 20k FW for the Mana collection be a good result for a 3 game retro compilation?

 

[cw_sasuke]

To show you the hilarity of saying SW is on track to sell 20 million+ in its first full FY.

Well if you cant apply common sense there isnt much benefit of continuing this discussion.

 

[Oregano]

Would a 20k FW for the Mana collection be a good result for a 3 game retro compilation?

It's better than I Am Setsuna!

 

[schuelma]

To show you the hilarity of saying SW is on track to sell 20 million+ in its first full FY.



Its not up to Nintendo. If demand is not met in a timely manner, they will be stocked.

You're not providing any type of analysis other than what appears to be putting your hands over your ears and saying "its not possible na na na na"

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Well if you cant apply common sense there isnt much benefit of continuing this discussion.

common sense hahahah
Come on. How about we do a avatar bet?

 

[Chris1964]

Looks like another 20k-ish week for Switch then based on those MK8DX numbers.

Even if shipments increased at that week do you think there are any at YSO who would know it?

Stock should increase at Arms and peak at Splatoon. From July and later we could see big numbers at major releases.

 

[cw_sasuke]

common sense hahahah
Come on. How about we do a avatar bet?

Why would i need to bet on something like this ? Im just discussing sales potential of consoles, why you seem to be catching feelings and jump from one argument to another

This started with you saying that its unlikely that the Switch could catch up to the One in a couple years, to straight up refusing that Nintendo could have shipped anywhere near 20m consoles by March 2018 to a bet.

And honestly you might be right - for all we know Switch sales could suddenly start dropping and MS manage a mayor comeback with Scorpio/One..who knows. But just making fun of other users statements/arguments doesnt prove your point.

PS. I had the "Show Avatar" function disabled for at least 5 years now, so im probably not the partner for a Avatar bet since i never cared about them.

 

[Aostia]

common sense hahahah
Come on. How about we do a avatar bet?

Meltdown meltdown!

 

[lwilliams3]

common sense hahahah
Come on. How about we do a avatar bet?

Lets go for a more productive conversation: what are your predictions for the Switch for the next two years? Be considerate that the XB1 may not have crossed 30 million sales worldwide yet.

 

[goldage]

The PS4 was heavily supply constrained as well for a few months. It's really hard to tell how much the 2 would have sold under optimal conditions.

ps4 had a great launch and sold well
switch had a great launch and should sell well

Its not up to Nintendo. If demand is not met in a timely manner, they will be stocked.

so demand will drop just as supply catches up

thats looking real likely atm huh

Would a 20k FW for the Mana collection be a good result for a 3 game retro compilation?

well considering they're basically just repackaged roms, i think yes