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[Cheech]

I imagine that Nintendoland's relative failure (now followed by Game & Wario's failure) has resulted in falling confidence in their casual ideas, while their safest title so far (NSMB U) is the only performer, so doubling down on that things like that probably looks like the best idea from their perspective.

Yeah, so the question is, what is the new "Nintendoland" going to be? The Wii get a foothold thanks 100% to Wii Sports. As Nintendoland failed to sell the Wii U's gimmick, they really need to find something that isn't safe and takes full advantage of the tablet.

I just don't know. Looking at the fall's Wii U slate, I'm not sure what game they could pack in to get this thing to sell. They really need a Minecraft type of game changer to get people to drop another $300 on a console that plays HD versions of the Wii games they already own, as the system isn't powerful enough to run the near-CG looking stuff shown on Xbone and PS4.

Oh I feel quite confident it will do better than that. Nintendo games have a lot better legs than other titles.

The "legs" concept is irrelevant to a console without a system seller.

 

[shinra-bansho]

As someone already pointed out, the refrain of two days rings as hollow as the one week of NPD thing. Most games will do the majority of their first week sales in the first couple of days. I don't think the Pikmin numbers are particularly bad, albeit slightly underwhelming.

Fuse did less than 20K in the US in May, but was only tracked for part of the month. So what?

Well, exactly. It got well over 20k with only 2 days of Pikmin 3 and a slightly repurposed SKU (plus 5 days of status quo).

That's new information that COULD be heading in the right direction, or maybe not. But to call the sales "bad" or "dead" after THIS week of a moderate bump is disingenuous. It's maybe bad comparative to very high expectations, but I think some of those expectations are based on the notion that a new color and game were released for 7 full days of the reported week.

The problem is they can't release a Pikmin every week. They can barely get software support at this stage, let alone a major release every week.

And really, people didn't have high expectations for the hardware. They had pretty modest expectations. 30K+ isn't a high expectations. Failing to meet those modest expectations isn't good.

 

[schuelma]

And for people screaming 2 days, that's what most games in Japan get. It's not an excuse.

Just for the record, that is not the case. A decent amount of Nintendo games and huge franchises (DQ Monster Hunter) will see Saturday releases, but the overwhelming majority release on Thursday.

 

[impact]

I think on some level they know things like Brain Age aren't going to work anymore, but aren't sure what new direction to go, so they fall back on what they feel has the best chance of working.

I imagine that Nintendoland's relative failure (now followed by Game & Wario's failure) has resulted in falling confidence in their casual ideas, while their safest title so far (NSMB U) is the only performer, so doubling down on that things like that probably looks like the best idea from their perspective.

Two failed minigame collections can only mean good things. I don't expect them to announce Star Fox and FZero now, but when Wii Party U and Wii Fit U bomb they might get the picture and start announcing more ambitious hardcore games. I'm gonna pick up TW101 and DKCR this year and skip the rest to show my support for hardcore games and pretend my +1 sale actually means something.

 

[ULTROS!]

I think no matter how grim the situation is, people will try to find a way to spin it.

Wii U will be hitting its stride soon~

 

[Bladenic]

Just for the record, that is not the case. A decent amount of Nintendo games and huge franchises (DQ Monster Hunter) will see Saturday releases, but the overwhelming majority release on Thursday.

Right, I was just pointing out that only having 2 days of sales is not an excuse for underperformance. I should have been more clear, so thanks for correcting and clearing up my post.

Sorry if these have been posted, but does anyone have Pikmin 1 and 2 sales for reference?

 

[airmangataosenai]

Also, does anyone remember how last year this thread was filled with people dismissing the Vita selling 35k and 50k units the weeks Persona and Miku came out respectively? Good times, especially when you consider that Pikmin as a franchise is just as big as either of those games.

 

[marc^o^]

I'm gonna pick up TW101 and DKCR this year and skip the rest to show my support for hardcore games and pretend my +1 sale actually means something.

impact
Member
(Today, 05:04 PM)

;-)

 

[Gianni Merryman]

*estimated copies shipped

So are those couples of numbers low end and high end shipment extimations?

 

[RM8]

I am an optimist and I want to see WiiU doing GCN numbers when all is said and done.

 

[schuelma]

Also, does anyone remember how last year this thread was filled with people dismissing the Vita selling 35k and 50k units the weeks Persona and Miku came out respectively? Good times.

I think most of the dismissal came the following week when the sales crashed quickly.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

All right champ, what's your prediction for the sales of Pikmin and the Wii U next week?

You can't deny that 4 days of sales would result in bigger figures.

Next week will have 7 days of sales, Monday and Tuesday should still see some movement, then back to shitville.

http://youtu.be/kfVsfOSbJY0?t=2m4s

 

[Snowden's Secret]

All right champ, what's your prediction for the sales of Pikmin and the Wii U next week?

Not him, and not saying I buy into "just two days" or whatever, but I think the following is a pretty reasonable argument:

-Baseline Wii U sales are 7K
-I expect Pikmin 3 to push Wii U up to 30K for it's first week (a 23K bump)
-The first two days are included and Wii U is at 22K (so a 15K bump)
-That leaves 8K that either have to be accounted for in the next five days or it underperformed my personal expectations
-So expect next week to be at 15K (7K base + 8K)

15K doesn't seem unachieveable.

Again, I don't personally ascribe to this, and I think the difference between a temporary boost of 30K or 22K is ultimately irrelevant, but it's not like the "just two days" argument is completely meritless.

 

[Nirolak]

You can't deny that 4 days of sales would result in bigger figures.

Next week will have 7 days of sales, Monday and Tuesday should still see some movement, then back to shitville.

http://youtu.be/kfVsfOSbJY0?t=2m4s

Not him, and not saying I buy into "just two days" or whatever, but I think the following is a pretty reasonable argument:

-Baseline Wii U sales are 7K
-I expect Pikmin 3 to push Wii U up to 30K for it's first week (a 23K bump)
-The first two days are included and Wii U is at 22K (so a 15K bump)
-That leaves 8K that either have to be accounted for in the next five days or it underperformed my personal expectations
-So expect next week to be at 15K (7K base + 8K)

15K doesn't seem unachieveable.

Again, I don't personally ascribe to this, and I think the difference between a temporary boost of 30K or 22K is ultimately irrelevant, but it's not like the "just two days" argument is completely meritless.

I agree that it is likely to have bigger legs than you would see from a normal release in the second week.

However I don't think it's all caps, repeat three times in bold worthy.

 

[razoftblend]

Pretty good numbers for Wii U. Yes, it is lower than people would want, but considering everything is low at the moment, including 3DS, and that it's a home console in Japan, I think it did pretty well. Even the Vita is struggling with a cheaper price and more games.

Pikmin 3 also did pretty good. Let's see if it has legs.

 

[michaelius]

I still think another reason for Nintendo's safeness is them being really unprepared for HD development. I mean, Game & Wario doesn't exactly look like a high budget game, Lego City Undercover seemed like a buying the publishing rights sort of deal, and Nintendo Land was the most "creative" out of the bunch.

It's sad to say, but I'm sorta worried that Nintendo is getting that "HD Bug", and are getting more safe to avoid budget problems. Maybe I'm missing something though, but that's the impression I got from the E3 direct. The Wonderful 101 seemed to be the only really wacky thing, and Platinum is making that too (though I wonder how much infulence Nintendo has on that). Okay I'll also admit that Mario Kart 8's gravity stuff looked really interesting!

That itself is a reason why i'm suprised Iwata is still CEO - Nintendo had time to observe HD transformation and see the nightmare it was for many Japanise companies and they did nothing to anticipate it on their own.

Beetween emergency Wii U direct in January or February and E3 they added one new game to the lineup (Donkey Kong).

 

[Verendus]

The Destructo Disc seems to have failed. Next up, Solar Flare.

To be serious for a moment, I don't see them recovering without a massive price cut and I don't think Nintendo will ever do that due to the potential loss. It's just a slow death for Krillin now.

 

[RurouniZel]

In sales news only I give a shit about Atelier Escha & Logy has crawled it's way up to 72K. Better, but not great either.

 

[schuelma]

The Destructo Disc seems to have failed. Next up, Solar Flare.

To be serious for a moment, I don't see them recovering without a massive price cut and I don't think Nintendo will ever do that due to the potential loss. It's just a slow death for Krillin now.

Is PS4 releasing this year in Japan?

 

[L Thammy]

Also, does anyone remember how last year this thread was filled with people dismissing the Vita selling 35k and 50k units the weeks Persona and Miku came out respectively? Good times, especially when you consider that Pikmin as a franchise is just as big as either of those games.

Um, the Wii U has already released something bigger than Pikmin, and I think we can say with relative confidence that some of the games coming for it will be bigger than Pikmin (Mario Kart, 3D World, Donkey Kong). Was Persona 4 in the same situation?

 

[Raist]

Is PS4 releasing this year in Japan?

Unknown for now. Probably not.

 

[Fisico]

Guys it's hot here, turn off your wii u please

 

[wrowa]

Well, exactly. It got well over 20k with only 2 days of Pikmin 3 and a slightly repurposed SKU (plus 5 days of status quo).

That's new information that COULD be heading in the right direction, or maybe not. But to call the sales "bad" or "dead" after THIS week of a moderate bump is disingenuous. It's maybe bad comparative to very high expectations, but I think some of those expectations are based on the notion that a new color and game were released for 7 full days of the reported week.

The problem isn't that Pikmin 3 was on sale only for two days or that it didn't bump hardware sales enough for these two days, the actual problem is that Pikmin 3 is the biggest game on Wii U until Wind Waker HD hits in late September. Even if the Wii U will have a modest drop to 15k next week, the pure space between Pikmin 3 and the next game destroys the chance of a considerable baseline increase.

If W101 or Wii Fit don't surprise, we are pretty much looking at Pikmin 3 now, Zelda in September and Mario in December. How is the console supposed to develop significant mindshare if Nintendo only releases a notable game every two or three months?

Of course, I might be wrong. Maybe Pikmin 3 will help selling 15k Wiis a week until W101 hits. Maybe W101 will be a surprise hit that carries over to Wind Waker HD. Maybe Wii Fit and Wii Party will do better than expected too. Maybe Donkey Kong is different enough from Mario and Luigi U, so that a lot of people go buy a console for it despite DK being the third major 2D platformer in a single year. But right now it seems like Nintendo's doing too little, too late.

 

[Bruno MB]

So are those couples of numbers low end and high end shipment extimations?

Yes.

I am an optimist and I want to see WiiU doing GCN numbers when all is said and done.

That's sad but realistic.

At this point the most optimistic scenario for Wii U would be matching GameCube sales. Problem for Nintendo is that with that level of sales they won't make any profit from Wii U.

 

[Snowden's Secret]

However I don't think it's all caps, repeat three times in bold worthy.

Ha ha, indeed

 

[Durante]

In sales news only I give a shit about Atelier Escha & Logy has crawled it's way up to 72K. Better, but not great either.

Not only you. It's the only game on the chart I care about in non-sales terms.

 

[airmangataosenai]

I think most of the dismissal came the following week when the sales crashed quickly.

Maybe, but the very next week it jumped up to 25k off the back of a new color and Metal Gear HD.

 

[ULTROS!]

The Destructo Disc seems to have failed. Next up, Solar Flare.

To be serious for a moment, I don't see them recovering without a massive price cut and I don't think Nintendo will ever do that due to the potential loss. It's just a slow death for Krillin now.

Will a price cut actually save it? Coz it didn't save the Gamecube.

 

[gamergirly]

Not bad for 2 days. Good niche title that got Wii U out of a slump for a short time. 350K lifetime for Pik3 I think.

 

[massoluk]

Not salty tears, just truth: my chips have always been on Mario Kart, not Pikmin. It will be shit until then. And if it's still shit then, sayonara.

 

[Spieler Eins]

I still think another reason for Nintendo's safeness is them being really unprepared for HD development. I mean, Game & Wario doesn't exactly look like a high budget game, Lego City Undercover seemed like a buying the publishing rights sort of deal, and Nintendo Land was the most "creative" out of the bunch.

It's sad to say, but I'm sorta worried that Nintendo is getting that "HD Bug", and are getting more safe to avoid budget problems. Maybe I'm missing something though, but that's the impression I got from the E3 direct. The Wonderful 101 seemed to be the only really wacky thing, and Platinum is making that too (though I wonder how much infulence Nintendo has on that). Okay I'll also admit that Mario Kart 8's gravity stuff looked really interesting!

While I wouldn't call the 3DS a bastion of creativity, the usual Nintendo franchises seem to be getting more unique twists and changes there, stuff like Luigi's Mansion Dark Moon, Mario and Luigi Dream Team, Fire Emblem Awakening, etc. Even Pokemon is making that big jump to 3D models. I guess the 3DS, in addition to being the much better seller, may also be more of Nintendo's comfort zone due to the less man power needed for them.

Seems like it. Which is why I think Iwata and the higher ups seriously need to go or change positions. How the hell did they not predict that their next two systems would require a certain amount of preparation well in advance. Fucking ridiculous, they need someone else calling the shots now so this doesn't happen again next gen (WiiU is lost anyway). They look like the clowns of the industry after this E3 and recent investor meetings consisting of ,,wh-wh-what kind of sorcery is this HD thing!?''

 

[RurouniZel]

Not only you. It's the only game on the chart I care about in non-sales terms.

 

[Canis lupus]

Guys it's hot here, turn off your wii u please

Can I turn it back on in 2 days?

 

[Jenoss]

Nice sales for wiiu, i hope it will do the same for the next 2 weeks.

 

[Honey Bunny]

Someone should update that Wiiugamepladintherain.jpg but with scorching weather.

Maybe a mod could start incorporating a weekly weather forecast in the media create threads?

 

[RM8]

What are everyone's predictions on Wii Fit U? Will it tank hard or do decent numbers? It's an interesting game because it's aimed at the people who precisely aren't buying a WiiU right now. I personally can't see it doing very well.

 

[Linkhero1]

I expected a bit better. I thought Japan loved their Pikmins? Either way, I feel as if a price cut is imminent.

What are everyone's predictions on Wii Fit U? Will it tank hard or do decent numbers? It's an interesting game because it's aimed at the people who precisely aren't buying a WiiU right now. I personally can't see it doing very well.

It will probably bomb. Nintendo has to really do a lot to convince people with Wii Fits to buy it.

 

[Fisico]

Can I turn it back on in 2 days?

I don't know, the OS is kinda laggy isn't it ?

 

[1st Course]

How much the Wii costs in Japan these days?

 

[airmangataosenai]

Um, the Wii U has already released something bigger than Pikmin, and I think we can say with relative confidence that some of the games coming for it will be bigger than Pikmin (Mario Kart, 3D World, Donkey Kong). Was Persona 4 in the same situation?

Plenty of games are bigger than Persona 4 Portable, and as such there have been several games released since that have sold more hardware and software in their first week respectively.

 

[pieatorium]

Will a price cut actually save it? Coz it didn't save the Gamecube.

It won't hurt and at this stage it's more about needing to stop the bleeding before you can even think about starting the life saving surgery

 

[KungFucius]

That is a very low number for Wii U. Its on the lower end what most people predicted, nobody predicted sub 20k as far as Ive seen.

Price cut is needed, that is all there is to say

They need to be more aggressive than to just cut the price. They need to cut price and include a free game download code or something in all regions. They need to make the system such a good deal that parents and casuals who are lured in to by a new system by the PS4bone see it as an interesting alternative, especially if the others sell out.

Throw in a Nintendoland disk in all regions, Drop the price so the DX costs as much as the basic and include a DL code for NSMBU with all system sales for a "limited time" to entice buyers. Hell give a code for any 1st party title and you are even more likely to sell systems and copies of Mario Kart and SSB. Be aggressive or lose in the end.

 

[Y2Kev]

I think it will launch in Japan. It will have no interesting software for Japan though at launch.

It's launching in like Bhutan this year.

 

[Kyon]

LordT it flopped?

Didn't even outsell all the major vita games at their launch. Even TOUKIDEN and SS new IPs. Mess

Yeah I don't think anything will save it except a price cut.


Also DEATH @ Level -5 game debuting so high. Praying for them it's not crap whoever bought it

 

[DragonSworne]

People seriously underplay the importance Zelda had at Wii launch. It was the title with the highest attach rate and gave the system legitimacy.

 

[schuelma]

People seriously underplay the importance Zelda had at Wii launch. It was the title with the highest attach rate and gave the system legitimacy.

Yup. Maybe not so much Japan,but elsewhere.

 

[wrowa]

Free download codes would indeed be a nice deal. Even if Nintendo is not cutting the price, because they don't want the Wii U to cut their profits even more, free download codes would be a nice incentive to sell Wii Us that ultimately costs Nintendo nothing. Bundle Nintendoland, NSMBU and Game & Wario with the console and maybe people will think of it as a good deal. Doing nothing is definitely not going to help them.

 

[Apophis2036]

If it makes you feel any better, Vita is doomed as well and has been for some time. WiiU is doing worse than Vita. This week is one of its most high profile for... well the rest of the year really with a new(-ish) premium pack, retail Luigi, and of course Pikmin 3. It managed 20k.

Now, maybe next week we'll see... I dunno, a modest raise to 25k or something to balance out the TWO DAYS OF SALES cries, but this is not a big enough bump to show the system is in any standard of health.

The next big period is November/December another quarter from now. This isn't the kind of run a product can experience and then be fairy godmother wand'd away. This sticks and colours the markets perception of a device until its bitter end unless a billion was invested in turning every area of concern around say 6 months ago to have a fighting chance.

Seeing Pikmin 3 have such a little effect on hardware in the corner of the world where it performs its best is just something I feel dots the i's and crosses the t's on an "it's dead" proclamation.

I don't think your assessment is off at all with regards to Pikmin 3, it's more the fact that you turn up (along with 9 or 10 others) and seem to celebrate in every little bit of bad news the system gets.

Does it bring you joy to see a console fail ?, I wasn't around on GAF when the Vita arrived and quickly bombed but I do think that this feels like 'payback' for a lot of you who bought a Vita and were 'hurt' when sales numbers arrived, which is truly laughable if true.

Unless you're a rabid fanboy you should want all consoles to sell well, it's good for the industry as a whole and generates more money for what matters most... new games.

Sometimes reading GAF it feels more like a sports forum where people pick a favorite 'team' and then celebrate when one of their rivals falters.

 

[RurouniZel]

Free download codes would indeed be a nice deal. Even if Nintendo is not cutting the price, because they don't want the Wii U to cut their profits even more, free download codes would be a nice incentive to sell Wii Us that ultimately costs Nintendo nothing. Bundle Nintendoland, NSMBU and Game & Wario with the console and maybe people will think of it as a good deal. Doing nothing is definitely not going to help them.

Nintendo Land or Game + Wario are probably the best candidates for a free download code IMO. If 3rd party is in play, MH3GHD.

 

[Verendus]

Is PS4 releasing this year in Japan?

Please be excited.

Will a price cut actually save it? Coz it didn't save the Gamecube.

I think it would help in the short-term but the larger problem would remain. So, I think it would just prolong things. To get it to a really attractive price point would mean to bleed money. I've essentially written it off now. I'll be impressed if they turn it around. All it would take is some big games, a great marketing campaign at the same time and increased brand awareness. So a miracle basically. I envy how hard they make things for themselves.