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[kswiston]

2D mario did push sales. The good launch numbers were due to nsmbu the only wiiu exclusive at that point. Obviously without any followup its impossible for that one game to perform further.

does that imply the games didnt actually sell?

I think he means that a lot of people picked up Mario Kart, NSMB, and other titles because they already had a Wii, but wouldn't have necessarily bought the system just for one of those games.

It's easier to sell someone on a game if they already own the system. Wii already had a pretty large install base when Mario Kart, Smash, and NSMB launched.

 

[Pie and Beans]

Today must be agree-with-people-I-never-agree-with day.

This. There is no "but wait for Mario-Kart and Smash." If 3D Mario doesn't move the needle, even if slightly, just like Vita's minor uptick after the price cuts, then there is no way to sugar-coat it: this is an existential crisis for Nintendo.

We probably disagree on specifics. For instance, I earlier posited opening JP sales week for 3D World in the 100k zone would be a disaster, with 150k-170k being the "okayish" zone.

Normally a portion of the thread would agree what with new Vita IP's pulling in 105-127k as certainly not this years biggest celebration, but the big new 3D Mario beneath that would be a grim sign of the times. Since Miyamoto went on record a while ago about how new gameplay doesn't deserve a new IP necessarily, wonder if they'd stoop to a 4-player co-op KOOPA HUNTER title

Squashing goombas, roasting mushrooms, carving off Hammer Bros shells for that sweet new armour and hammer weapon to go up against the dreaded Azure Birdo.... I've sold myself on this now.

 

[ZeroXZee]

does that imply the games didnt actually sell?

Well, the GameCube sold more to hardcore Nintendo fans, while Wii sold to a much different (and larger) audience. Comparing GC and Wii U game sales sound more accurate to me than comparing Wii and Wii U.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Wouldn't they just buy Smash for the 3DS instead?

Not if the 3DS version gets delayed.

 

[SporeCrawler]

Well, the GameCube sold more to hardcore Nintendo fans, while Wii sold to a much different (and larger) audience. Comparing GC and Wii U game sales sound more accurate to me than comparing Wii and Wii U.

so comparing salesdata from over 10 years ago is more accurate than more recent salesdata?

also isnt wiiu trying to recapture that different audience with wii fit, wii party, wii sports etc.

not saying that they will succeed but 10 year old sales data is probably not very accurate either.

 

[Lexxism]

With DST ended on Sunday, we will get the next media create tomorrow 8am EST?

 

[Pie and Beans]

so comparing salesdata from over 10 years ago is more accurate than more recent salesdata?

also isnt wiiu trying to recapture that different audience with wii fit, wii party, wii sports etc.

not saying that they will succeed but 10 year old sales data is probably not very accurate either.

Products follow trends when they aim for the exact same audiences. That the WiiU follows a graph along the bottom of the Gamecube, thats because it has lots of things in common with that product and unsurprisingly things can be predicted and often accurately so from that. Thats why we draw those silly squiggly coloured lines criss crossing each other after all.

 

[RE_Player]

Keep on holding Vita! KEEP ON HOLDING!!

Also what the hell does Nintendo have to do to inject life into Wii U sales?

 

[michaelius]

so comparing salesdata from over 10 years ago is more accurate than more recent salesdata?

also isnt wiiu trying to recapture that different audience with wii fit, wii party, wii sports etc.

not saying that they will succeed but 10 year old sales data is probably not very accurate either.

IMHO Gamecube situation was order of magnitude better compared to Wii U.

First party support was better, third party support actually not only existed but gave GCN several big exclusives, price situation was lot more atractive, handhelds weren't "good enough" to replace home consoles at that time.

So reaching the sales of respective franchises on GCN is super optimistic scenario for Wii U games.

 

[SporeCrawler]

Products follow trends when they aim for the exact same audiences. That the WiiU follows a graph along the bottom of the Gamecube, thats because it has lots of things in common with that product and unsurprisingly things can be predicted and often accurately so from that. Thats why we draw those silly squiggly coloured lines criss crossing each other after all.

well that "trend" seems to have ended ages ago a new "trend" set in and that trend has ended as well.

nintendo obviously is trying to recapture the wii trend but is failing to do so at the moment. doesnt meant that they will be succesful at even reaching the GC trend.

IMHO Gamecube situation was order of magnitude better compared to Wii U.

First party support was better, third party support actually not only existed but gave GCN several big exclusives, price situation was lot more atractive, handhelds weren't "good enough" to replace home consoles at that time.

So reaching the sales of respective franchises on GCN is super optimistic scenario for Wii U games.

If Nintendo fails to capture the wii audience I fully agree.

 

[Road]

Congratulations to Mpl90 for winning by units and to strangedopamine, by percentages!

BY UNITS                              BY PERCENTAGE

  1   285,776  Mpl90                     1  129.2%  strangedopamine
  2   334,750  The_lascar                2  137.7%  Road
  3   360,462  metalslimer               3  154.6%  theprodigy
  4   383,852  Jamix012                  4  156.7%  Mpl90
  5   384,794  Fisico                    5  162.0%  Kaworu
  6   404,462  MasterSheen               6  164.4%  XDDX
  7   411,676  bakman21                  7  165.6%  PhantomOfTheKnight
  8   436,462  theprodigy                8  172.2%  Jamix012
  9   453,444  Mario007                  9  187.3%  michaelius
 10   488,676  Hitsukara                10  190.9%  Yanikun
 11   494,682  michaelius               11  190.9%  MasterSheen
 12   496,462  DrWong                   12  194.6%  darkside31337
 13   513,676  1st Course               13  199.3%  metalslimer
 14   515,344  Yeshua                   14  200.2%  hongcha
 15   534,750  sörine                   15  201.2%  Orgen
 16   542,082  Orgen                    16  203.6%  Cuddler
 17   554,794  Bruno MB                 17  205.6%  Hitsukara
 18   560,728  L Thammy                 18  206.6%  Fisico
 19   566,004  strangedopamine          19  207.0%  Mario007
 20   568,450  Kenka                    20  213.0%  Roboleon
 21   589,241  Road                     21  220.9%  sörine
 22   590,638  Yanikun                  22  231.4%  The_lascar
 23   598,082  Foshy                    23  233.8%  DrWong
 24   626,664  Atram                    24  237.1%  Atram
 25   634,794  Hellraider               25  242.4%  bakman21
 26   639,638  XDDX                     26  245.3%  ZSaberLink
 27   646,646  Roboleon                 27  250.4%  ohlawd
 28   654,676  Pyscho_Mantis            28  250.5%  Newline
 29   675,232  Bald Cleft               29  251.0%  L Thammy
 30   709,794  Glass Rebel              30  251.9%  Lexxus
 31   765,445  Chris1964                31  254.5%  Foshy
 32   783,344  SaviorX                  32  256.0%  SaviorX
 33   798,676  Zeer0id                  33  257.0%  Pyscho_Mantis
 34   799,284  ZSaberLink               34  262.2%  Glass Rebel
 35   799,794  Kaworu                   35  265.3%  Zeer0id
 36   804,750  Lexxus                   36  267.3%  Mr Swine
 37   811,638  Mr Swine                 37  273.1%  Yeshua
 38   814,794  Cuddler                  38  277.0%  Kenka
 39   900,232  PhantomOfTheKnight       39  281.2%  Bald Cleft
 40   911,852  hongcha                  40  281.7%  Bruno MB
 41   956,350  darkside31337            41  287.9%  Hellraider
 42 1,044,528  Gianni Merryman          42  292.9%  Chris1964
 43 1,065,462  frankie_baby             43  300.7%  1st Course
 44 1,330,344  Zornica                  44  324.4%  Gianni Merryman
 45 1,481,640  Newline                  45  336.9%  Zornica
 46 1,531,490  ohlawd                   46  339.7%  frankie_baby
 47 3,202,084  $h@d0w                   47  446.5%  $h@d0w
 48 4,344,822  IncandescentPrecept      48  613.2%  IncandescentPrecept

                                     Famitsu     Bald Cleft frankie_ba SaviorX    MasterShee Pyscho_Man Gianni Mer L Thammy   hongcha    Chris1964  Yeshua     1st Course Glass Rebe michaelius Hellraider ohlawd     Mr Swine   DrWong     Foshy      Kaworu     Orgen      Jamix012   metalslime bakman21   sörine     Kenka      strangedop Mpl90      Zeer0id    Yanikun    PhantomOfT ZSaberLink darkside31 $h@d0w     theprodigy Mario007   Incandesce XDDX       Roboleon   Atram      Newline    Fisico     Cuddler    Bruno MB   Zornica    Hitsukara  Road       The_lascar Lexxus
[3DS] Pokémon X/Y                      2,953,059    3100000    2400000    3220000    2900000    3200000    3100000    2893461    3500000    2567890    3000000    3000000    2700000    2800000    2700000    2000000    2650000    2850000    2900000    2550000    2790000    3000000    2950000    2980000    2800000    3123456    2649151    2965000    3200000    2700000    3300000    2712354    2300000    5000000    2800000    2856350          0    2615000    2800000    2700000    4000000    2950000    2500000    2815000    3250000    3000000    2666666    2900000    2700000
[PS3+360] Grand Theft Auto V             463,518     350000     280000     242000     375000     333000     600000     364215     300000     345678     250000     420000     290000     270000     390000     150000     185000     350000     220000     275000     238000     295000     315000     320000     280000     512345     278000     370000     300000     280000     180000      98000     450000     400000     300000     250000          0     345000     250000     350000     600000     300000     400000     325000     450000     280000     266666     400000     200000
[PS3] Tales of Symphonia Chronicles      100,926     200000     220000     230000     170000     220000     300000      85878     150000     210987     150000     250000     180000     150000     225000     100000     139000     185000     160000     145000     149000     123000     170000     158000     160000     210987     142765     163000     250000     150000     120000     170000     150000     100000     160000     105000          0     135000      90000     180000     105000     190000     150000     195000     200000     180000     111111     180000     150000
[PSV] Danganronpa 1 & 2 Reload            88,334      80000      75000      83000      60000      99000     100000      29571     100000      98765      50000     100000      95000     120000     110000      50000      23000      85000     130000      97000     112000      98000      80000      89000      70000     101010      84000      97000      95000      74000      80000      85000      60000      15000      80000     140000     100000      70000     150000     130000     140000     110000     150000     130000      35000      90000      66666      75000      80000
[3DS] Battle for Money: Sentouchuu        62,444      30000     145000      77000      75000      90000      30000      31669      25000     123456     100000     150000     110000      60000     125000      50000      22000     100000      90000      66000      81000      38000      78000     145000      90000     189012      77777      75200      95000      55000      50000      50000      40000      10000      70000      95000          0      50000      80000     100000      95000      70000      70000     115000      80000      70000      66666     120000     100000
[3DS] Hardware                           641,644     850000     690000     724000     760000     700000    1100000     412641     550000     678901     700000     750000     750000     650000     710000     500000     565000     750000     500000     760000     623000     590000     695000     692000     600000     700000     649151     698900     800000     630000     860000     600000     800000    1500000     650000     650000          0     570000     800000     740000     800000     700000     800000     720000    1450000     750000     666666     600000     500000
[PSV] Hardware                           111,565      45000      46000      48000      77000      50000      52000      43327     100000      67890      40000      45000      70000      55000      80000      40000     102000      65000      80000      78000      67000      51000      49000      61000      60000      70000     104000      72000      70000      40000     100000      45000      80000       5000      75000      65000          0      65000      80000     115000      60000      70000      90000     100000      70000      50000      66666      85000      60000

UNIT DIFF                                      0     675232    1065462     783344     404462     654676    1044528     560728     911852     765445     515344     513676     709794     494682     634794    1531490     811638     496462     598082     799794     542082     383852     360462     411676     534750     568450     566004     285776     798676     590638     900232     799284     956350    3202084     436462     453444    4344822     639638     646646     626664    1481640     384794     814794     554794    1330344     488676     589241     334750     804750

PERCENTAGE DIFF                             0.0%     281.2%     339.7%     256.0%     190.9%     257.0%     324.4%     251.0%     200.2%     292.9%     273.1%     300.7%     262.2%     187.3%     287.9%     250.4%     267.3%     233.8%     254.5%     162.0%     201.2%     172.2%     199.3%     242.4%     220.9%     277.0%     129.2%     156.7%     265.3%     190.9%     165.6%     245.3%     194.6%     446.5%     154.6%     207.0%     613.2%     164.4%     213.0%     237.1%     250.5%     206.6%     203.6%     281.7%     336.9%     205.6%     137.7%     231.4%     251.9%

STATISTICS
                                        Famitsu    GAF-AVG        MIN        MAX       OVER      UNDER    CLOSEST         BY
[3DS] Pokémon X/Y                      2,953,059  2,916,050  2,000,000  5,000,000        35%        65%  2,950,000 metalslimer
[PS3+360] Grand Theft Auto V             463,518    319,636     98,000    600,000         6%        94%    450,000 darkside31337
[PS3] Tales of Symphonia Chronicles      100,926    166,356     85,878    300,000        90%        10%    100,000 ohlawd
[PSV] Danganronpa 1 & 2 Reload            88,334     89,000     15,000    150,000        52%        48%     89,000 bakman21
[3DS] Battle for Money: Sentouchuu        62,444     79,910     10,000    189,012        69%        31%     60,000 michaelius
[3DS] Hardware                           641,644    722,027    412,641  1,500,000        71%        29%    649,151 strangedopamine
[PSV] Hardware                           111,565     66,168      5,000    115,000         2%        98%    115,000 Atram

Surprised the average for Pokémon was basically right.

 

[BriBri]

Not if the 3DS version gets delayed.

I fully expect the two versions to release at different dates.

 

[Jamix012]

Oooh, nice, I'm happy with 4th/8th I'll certainly be entering the prediction league again! Thanks for running it!

 

[PhantomOfTheKnight]

Ooh, 7th by percentage, neat!

 

[Kandinsky]

The only real WiiU system seller is Smash Bros.

/random

 

[idlewild_]

Anyone have an idea what that latest blog post might be about? Hope it isn't about Wii U, b/c that would be a truly unfortunate result.

 

[Coldnoodle]

Anyone have an idea what that latest blog post might be about? Hope it isn't about Wii U, b/c that would be a truly unfortunate result.

What blog post?

 

[idlewild_]

What blog post?

Same one that we get sell-through percentages from. I'm probably just reading it wrong, my Japanese is pretty rusty these days.

 

[Coldnoodle]

Same one that we get sell-through percentages from. I'm probably just reading it wrong, my Japanese is pretty rusty these days.

link?

 

[zroid]

god damn. one of my worst months yet.

 

[Takao]

The only real WiiU system seller is Smash Bros.

/random

Yep, after they've gotten their fill of that they'll sell their Wii U.

 

[Anth0ny]

Nintendo would be insane to release 3DS Smash and Wii U Smash on the same day.

I'm pretty sure they've already said Wii U Smash will be out before 3DS Smash.

Yep, after they've gotten their fill of that they'll sell their Wii U.

If Smash 4 is any good, like Melee, the Wii U will become the "Smash machine" and nothing more

If it sucks, then yeah, everyone will sell their Wii Us.

 

[spatenfloot]

Maybe Nintendo should only sell 3ds Smash bundled with a WiiU.

 

[ohlawd]

3rd worst? I did well.

 

[Aquamarine]

link?

Check your PM.

 

[Coldnoodle]

Check your PM.

Saw, tomorrow morning will be interesting if it checks out.

 

[thepotatoman]

Would Smash actually be considered that much larger?

Looking here: http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/sales/software/wii.html

Super Smash Bros Brawl (WW): 11.49 million
Super Smash Bros Brawl (JP): 2,094,464

Super Mario Galaxy (WW): 11.72 million
Super Mario Galaxy (JP): 1,017,287

Neither were as big as:

New Super Mario Bros Wii (WW): 27.88 million
New Super Mario Bros Wii (JP): 4,518,492

NSMBW and SMG seemed both groundbreaking for the franchise at the time. I think even Mario Kart got some major revitalization from motion control steering. Brawl on the other hand was a very iterative sequel, which still did well.

Now we are seeing all 4 franchise having iterative releases, which is a step back for SMG, NSMB, and MK from the Wii ones, but it's not a step back for SSB.

 

[balgajo]

Tomorrow sales will include the new bundles? Or just next week?

EDIT: Talking about Wii U

 

[pieatorium]

Tomorrow sales will include the new bundles? Or just next week?

EDIT: Talking about Wii U

tonight (or tomorrow I guess depending where you are)

 

[ohlawd]

Saw, tomorrow morning will be interesting if it checks out.

Doesn't sound good heh.

Basing this off nothing btw.

 

[balgajo]

tonight (or tomorrow I guess depending where you are)

My bad, I'm in Brazil. 04:31 am here...haha

 

[Pooya]

http://www.bandainamco.co.jp/files/2013202QE8A39CE8B6B3E8B387E69699EFBC88E88BB1EFBC89.pdf

 

[B.O.O.M]

Why not just say what's on the blog? I don't really understand why all this secrecy over it.

 

[allan-bh]

Why not just say what's on the blog? I don't really understand why all this secrecy over it.

I also don't understand. What is the purpose of hiding information from others?

 

[balgajo]

Now I'm curious too....XD

 

[vinnygambini]

Why not just say what's on the blog? I don't really understand why all this secrecy over it.

same sad panda.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Actually linking to the blog is a no-no iirc.

I'm also not sure I'm looking at the right blog right now and google translate is giving me gibberish.

Although someone is free to paraphrase.

 

[Tripon]

Actually linking to the blog is a no-no iirc.

I'm also not sure I'm looking at the right blog right now and google translate is giving me gibberish.

Although someone is free to paraphrase.

Is it a banned site?

 

[shinra-bansho]

Is it a banned site?

I don't believe so. iirc it's so the blog doesn't get shut down?

 

[Mr Swine]

Heh, anyone predict that Vita sales will be higher this weeks media create sales and 3DS sales will fall? I do t think Wii U will be higher than 10k

 

[BLACK AMERICAN PSYCHO]

I don't believe so. iirc it's so the blog doesn't get shut down?

could you PM me the link?

 

[metalslimer]

Nice I did pretty well for the month. Pokemon prediction was my best ever I think lol. I really wish the PS4 was launching soon.

 

[Nirolak]

I understand if you guys don't want to link it, but at least paraphrase it.

 

[Deleted member 125677]

I was way off - too high on Dragonronpa, 3ds HW, and a too low on Vita hw and GTA, but at least I'm closer than that scrub Chris1964

 

[Aquamarine]

I'm very interested to see Wii U sales this week. Only a few more hours until we get the truth!

 

[Road]

I understand if you guys don't want to link it, but at least paraphrase it.

It says it isn't a complete revival yet.

And them it links to an yoyo on Amazon that has the number 50217.

 

[B.O.O.M]

It says it isn't a complete revival yet.

And them it links to an yoyo on Amazon that has the number 50217.

I was thinking around 45k for this week. 50+k would be a pretty sweet start for sure if true

why would that be an unfortunate result tho? :S

ps: yoyo's are still a thing?

 

[SmokyDave]

It says it isn't a complete revival yet.

And them it links to an yoyo on Amazon that has the number 50217.

50k seems like it would be a good result for the Wii U. How much more are people expecting?

 

[Foshy]

Maybe the 50217 refers to Wii Party U sales? Would be more realistic in my eyes.

 

[Magicpaint]

I was one of those that didn't expect the bundles to give that much of a boost so I'd be really surprised with 50k.