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Media Create Sales: Week 48, 2011 (Nov 28 - Dec 04)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
slaughterking
Member
Yeah, otherwise it'll go over the unbreakable 800k barrier.
And that would be UNACCEPTABLE!!!
electroplankton
Banned
Great numbers indeed.
So it seems shipment numbers were roughly true, and now the game is almost sold-out. I wonder how the second week will be.. Something around 200k?
So it seems shipment numbers were roughly true, and now the game is almost sold-out. I wonder how the second week will be.. Something around 200k?
Nuclear Muffin
Banned
Thank you! I was thinking it was around 280k odd, couldn't remember exactly.
Well if it's supply constrained then the sky's the limit...
So it'll do 300k next week and then never sell another copy again
electroplankton
Banned
If it moves similarly to what the two previous Monster Hunter did, so it can do very good numbers in the next weeks and hold nicely, but if it follows Monster Hunter 3 we will see a sharp drop; anyway, it all depends on the supply it seems: on Wii there were copies everywhere, for Portable 3rd I remember similar problems of sold-outs.
probably won't be possible with the supply constrain. it might reach a million the same week as Mario Kart
Nuclear Muffin
Banned
BTW: 3DS also beat DS+DSL in 2006!
DSL: 319,708
DS: 158
(3DS: 370K)
DSL: 319,708
DS: 158
(3DS: 370K)
Gianni Merryman
Member
Presumably 3DS's hardware sales could have been even bigger than this, if MH3G wasn't sold out.
Nuclear Muffin
Banned
Whoops, sorry didn't notice I was mixing MC with Famitsu!
BTW, it seems that the 3DS has outdone every single (Famitsu) week 49 that the DS ever did!
2004: 181,231 (DS)
2005: 295,701 (DS)
2006: 375,468 (DSL+DS)
2007: 164,576 (DSL)
2008: 126,596 (DSi+DSL)
2009: 113,052 (DSi+DSiXL+DSL)
2010: 106,633 (DSi+DSiXL+DSL)
electroplankton
Banned
But I think that to outperform the almost 600k DS did at the end of 2005, 3DS will need something more than a momentum.
Nuclear Muffin
Banned
Well it does have Inazuma Eleven Go and SD Gundam G Generation 3D left to go for December. Combine that with MH3G's next few weeks (especially with it being supply constrained), the new adverts for the 3DS' video recording/December update and SM3DL/MK7's continuing sales and it may just about tip the balance in the 3DS' favour!
Fantastical
Death Prophet
I can still remember when the 3DS used to be 249 US dollars.
Gianni Merryman
Member
4 millions is doable methinks, but 4,5 is maybe a little out of reach.
What a strange world we lived in back then.
Yeah. I had to pay $500 NZ for mine, even though the exchange rate was good. You Americans always get the better deal. I got mario kart 7 for $89 =(
SCEJ could only afford one money hat this year...
FINALFANTASYDOG
Member
Predictions
edit; woops, was confused about the deadline, reserved for future predictions(last minute for the wins
3DS] Nintendo 3DS Hardware (Nintendo) - 401,231
[3DS] Inazuma Eleven Go: Shine/Dark (Level 5) - 163.432
[PS3] PlayStation 3 Hardware (SCE) - 83.543
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII-2 (Square Enix) - 665,566
[PSV] Playstation Vita Hardware (SCE) - 311,312
[PSV] Minna no Golf 6 (Hot Shots Golf) (SCE) - 74.534
[PSV] Uncharted: Golden Abyss (SCE) - 46.842
[PSV] Dynasty Warriors Next (Koei Tecmo) - 37.534
edit; woops, was confused about the deadline, reserved for future predictions(last minute for the wins
3DS] Nintendo 3DS Hardware (Nintendo) - 401,231
[3DS] Inazuma Eleven Go: Shine/Dark (Level 5) - 163.432
[PS3] PlayStation 3 Hardware (SCE) - 83.543
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII-2 (Square Enix) - 665,566
[PSV] Playstation Vita Hardware (SCE) - 311,312
[PSV] Minna no Golf 6 (Hot Shots Golf) (SCE) - 74.534
[PSV] Uncharted: Golden Abyss (SCE) - 46.842
[PSV] Dynasty Warriors Next (Koei Tecmo) - 37.534
Based on the sales being in the same range as 360 and Wii Tales. Also you gave the reason of graphic fidelity yourself and I just think that's a better argument here. Salted ground = possible, but unlikely with the kind of informed fans the series has. Of course I dont have proof for this but you don't have proof for the salted ground one either.
Arc the Lad was a new IP that succeeded. Two reasons: it wasn't obscenely expensive as cartridge RPGs which puts off potential buyers willing to try. And of course it was the first game to appeal to RPG buyers on the platform. Anyway, if Tales had been a new IP on PS rather than on SNES it might have gotten the PS sales anyway. What did hold it back was most likely the cartridge price.
I haven't really delved into cause but a pattern will hold unless there will be significant impact to change it.
For now the pattern is like this: Sony platforms of every generation had a high amount of Tales fans. Other consoles had significantly lower number of Tales fans/buyers. GC is the high point after the low SNES one. After that sales on non-Sony platforms declined compared to GC Symphonia. There have been ups and downs with the 360 one getting very low sales despite high graphic fidelity bu overall Tales has hit 200 000 this generation after 300 000 on GC.
It's save to say that the majority of Tales fans, since most of them started on PS1, favor Playstation and no other platform maker has yet been able to win them over.
[/quote]
I was comparing DS to PS1 and PS2 (which the DS didn't live up to) and to SNES (which still did better thanks to more multi million sellers). Yes, the DS is the strongest RPG platform of its gen, so was the SNES, but the PS1 and PS2 still did significantly better. BTW, DQIX didn't just sell better than the PS2 one but also better than any previous DQ so it's a moot point. The only one to come close is DQVII on PS1 though which shows that DQ did also do well on Playstation. Not really much of an edge here for DS. DS simply got more DQ games than PS1 and 2 combined which contributes a lot to the high but still not as high as PS1/2 hit game count.
So my point still holds: DS RPG success is 1/2 DQ success. FF did a lot worse than on previous consoles which could be attributed to its handheld low graphic fidelity and to remakes/spin offs but then the main FFs are missing which hurts DS compared to PS1 and PS2. Tales did really bad. Other big IPs were non shows and new IPs were numerous but most of the time unspectacular especially compared to PS1.
Just to put all this into perspective, going by my personal taste I favor Nintendo over Sony and I played and enjoyed more RPGs on DS than on PS1/2/3. But going by sales DS is not the RPG powerhouse it's made out to be if you compare it to previous gens.
The PS3 doing badly is due to it being so expensive but it will catch up a little, as we're already seeing. Ni no Kuni isn't really a good example as it appeals to a family audience which will boost the DS version even without it being one year early and more affordable.
charlequin
Banned
PS3 has exactly two RPGs above 500,000 (a worse score on this particular metric than the PSP) and will get its third when XIII-2 comes out. (Add one to this if Xillia got over 500k and I just remember wrongly.) PS3 has exactly one 1m+ RPG now (as compared to zero on the three remaining platforms) and will never have more than 3.
So yeah, even if you weed out remakes and first-party titles (the first half of that is kind of a silly restriction IMO -- remakes tend to sell less well than new entries in the same franchise, so 1m+ remakes actually speak to a platform's strength for a specific genre) DS was still handily stronger than all of its competition combined in the RPG genre.
charlequin
Banned
Well, part of the proof is that it's a more or less universal principle of sales that previous title reception affects the current title's sales. Like I've said, it's very possible that the ceiling started out low on DS because of the presentation issue and so the salted-earth effect only really made the difference between, say, a 320k Hearts and a 200k one.
Sure, I agree with that, it just doesn't have anything to do with Sony vs. Nintendo. Launching a new IP on a hot new, visually spectacular system without the burden of cartridge costs and late-generation buyer fatigue is an obviously superior choice, yes. We saw new IPs take off on SNES the same way back in the day, and Level-5 was able to replicate something very similar to SE's performance on PS1 by launching a ton of wildly successful new IPs on DS.
Again, my issue here is considering "Sony" to be the determining factor here rather than the qualities which Sony systems have heretofore shared. I don't believe that Tales would carry over well to an underpowered Sony system, for example, or one that was DD-only.
If the argument is "Sony have produced the systems and software lineups that best line up with the needs of core hobbyists in Japan" I wouldn't really disagree; the PS3's late-period success in Japan is entirely built on plugging away at parts of the software ecosystem that worked well for them on PS2 and which were drastically underserved by the Wii. That's a question of what qualities cause a system to succeed with a specific market, though, not a question of the name on the box.
Errr... whut? "The DS had the best selling DQ of all time -- so it doesn't count!" That's moronic.
I never argued that it did. DQ certainly did do well on Playstation as well, probably because -- I know this is a shocking idea -- franchises that are strong on their own merits tend to do well on any platform that can deliver a compelling entry. (This is kind of the core of my thesis in case you missed that.)
The rest of this is all just cherry-picking again. DQ went up on DS so it "doesn't count," FF went down on DS so it reflects badly on the system despite a general franchise decline across all platforms. You dock the system points for IPs that were never released on it but ignore Level 5 creating a new million-selling IP on the platform.
There's certainly nuanced arguments to be made about the strength of the DS as a platform for certain types of content (duckroll and I have gone at it at length about the relative performance of various niche DS releases in the past), but the idea that there's this categorical gulf that makes the DS more comparable to the SNES than the PS2 is nonsense.
I will cheer for this year, where I have witnessed the fall of both Capcom and Level-5.
Dash Kappei
Not actually that important
Even then it would just have been even with Symphonia. Xilia crossed 600 000 pretty quickly btw and some people even expected it to do up to 800 000 but it didn't have any legs to speak of. Basically Tales fans waited for the PS3 exclusive one to come out. The best another system can do is half of the best Sony entry. And if it gets ported it will do as good or better on PS. True for Symphonia, Vesperia and Graces. So the most a system could steal by being first was half. And Namco porting the games late doesn't give the remaining half a reason to bite with the next one.
Back then, Sony = CDs and Nintendo = cartridges. Even if it's not an important price factor nowadays the PS made the RPG boom beyond the big gun releases on SNES possible in the first place. The "cause" for the Sony preference originates here. You could call it coincidence, but once established this preference didn't change after that. And I hardly see it changing unless something very drastic happens.
It does count of course but as a series, despite minor set backs, it just keeps increasing. Through I to IV it increased, minor set back with V (helped its remakes though), VI and VII increased again, minor set back with VIII (PS2 already too exensive, they repeated that mistake much worse with the PS3). So it can't just be attributed to the DS. Like you say as well it will sell well wherever it goes and Enix just choose the leading hardware usually to not cap the sales low.
I'm talking specifically about RPGs.
In terms of RPGs it is true. Even the high amount of DQ (original, remake and spin off) releases is similar. No PS got as many as either Famicom, SFC or DS.
Prediction
[3DS] Nintendo 3DS Hardware (Nintendo) - 333,333
[3DS] Inazuma Eleven Go: Shine/Dark (Level 5) - 166,666
[PS3] PlayStation 3 Hardware (SCE) - 99,999
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII-2 (Square Enix) - 777,777
[PSV] Playstation Vita Hardware (SCE) - 266,666
[PSV] Minna no Golf 6 (Hot Shots Golf) (SCE) - 66,666
[PSV] Uncharted: Golden Abyss (SCE) - 33,333
[PSV] Dynasty Warriors Next (Koei Tecmo) - 33,333
Minor setbacks, meaning whenever its performance clashes with the point you are trying to make? Which has happened multiple times? But its ok, because those arent data points that poke holes in your theories, they are just minor setbacks?
I keep reading your message above, and its like "Well X is the case, except that time when Y happened then, and that other time when Y happened again, and of course Y happened that other time to, but we all expected that..... But yeah, its clearly all X".
We eat DCharlie crow?
AceBandage
Banned
charlequin
Banned
Right, which is why in terms of drawing actual conclusions about causality we talk about what CDs and cartridges mean, because those factors are somewhat generalizable whereas saying "Sony platform" or "Nintendo platform" means wildly different, even contradictory things, depending on what platform you're talking about and when.
It's not a question of coincidence. It's certainly accurate that a lot of, say, the PS3's success with RPGs is based on both expected support (it built a fanbase early on thanks to franchises that carried over from PS2 and never saw a reason to go elsewhere) and on functionality (it offered the only non-360 option for high-end AV experiences on a console), but that's a result of specific things that happened, not a generic brand preference.
Everything in a complex system like sales is affected my multiple factors, both obvious and subtle, and the complex interplay between them. Simplifying it down to ultra-generalities means missing out on most of those factors and leads to tons of individual excuses for stuff that doesn't fit the pattern. It also makes it much harder to address situations that only fit with some of your expectations.
Nobody's attributing anything "just to the DS." I am pointing out that your argument relies on selectively dismissing the relevance of RPGs that performed well on DS (it's DQ/a remake/Level-5/etc., those always do well!) while boosting the importance of other titles. It is nothing resembling an attempt at holistic or nuanced analysis. There's a reason people who peddle these exception-ridden, platform-centric theories have been getting laughed out of MC threads for years.
This fact is completely irrelevant to anything we're talking about.
Anasui Kishibe
Banned
argh
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
I'm talking mid level, which I'd classify as well below a million. You talked about games like Suikoden, Tales and Star Ocean being examples, so I thought we were on the same page.
Also, did you overlook the part where I said the data only goes back to late 1994? What sales are you looking at exactly to support the claim you're making? What would PS1 RPG sales look like if we only considered early 1999 on or PS2 from late 2004 on?
Please, can you link us to some of those sales then? Shin Megsmi Tensei I/II/if would be interesting.
[3DS] Nintendo 3DS Hardware (Nintendo) - 275,000
[3DS] Inazuma Eleven Go: Shine/Dark (Level 5) - 163,000
[PS3] PlayStation 3 Hardware (SCE) - 78,000
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII-2 (Square Enix) - 535,000
[PSV] Playstation Vita Hardware (SCE) - 185,000
[PSV] Minna no Golf 6 (Hot Shots Golf) (SCE) - 45,000
[PSV] Uncharted: Golden Abyss (SCE) - 34,000
[PSV] Dynasty Warriors Next (Koei Tecmo) - 31,000
[3DS] Inazuma Eleven Go: Shine/Dark (Level 5) - 163,000
[PS3] PlayStation 3 Hardware (SCE) - 78,000
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII-2 (Square Enix) - 535,000
[PSV] Playstation Vita Hardware (SCE) - 185,000
[PSV] Minna no Golf 6 (Hot Shots Golf) (SCE) - 45,000
[PSV] Uncharted: Golden Abyss (SCE) - 34,000
[PSV] Dynasty Warriors Next (Koei Tecmo) - 31,000
Yes.
nooooooo, I'll suck again :-(
[3DS] Nintendo 3DS Hardware (Nintendo) - 414,414
[3DS] Inazuma Eleven Go: Shine/Dark (Level 5) - 131,131
[PS3] PlayStation 3 Hardware (SCE) - 73,737
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII-2 (Square Enix) - 535,535
[PSV] Playstation Vita Hardware (SCE) - 131,131
[PSV] Minna no Golf 6 (Hot Shots Golf) (SCE) - 53,535
[PSV] Uncharted: Golden Abyss (SCE) - 43,434
[PSV] Dynasty Warriors Next (Koei Tecmo) - 33,333
edit : changed 3DS hardware numbers.
[3DS] Nintendo 3DS Hardware (Nintendo) - 414,414
[3DS] Inazuma Eleven Go: Shine/Dark (Level 5) - 131,131
[PS3] PlayStation 3 Hardware (SCE) - 73,737
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII-2 (Square Enix) - 535,535
[PSV] Playstation Vita Hardware (SCE) - 131,131
[PSV] Minna no Golf 6 (Hot Shots Golf) (SCE) - 53,535
[PSV] Uncharted: Golden Abyss (SCE) - 43,434
[PSV] Dynasty Warriors Next (Koei Tecmo) - 33,333
edit : changed 3DS hardware numbers.
[3DS] Nintendo 3DS Hardware (Nintendo) - 450,000
[3DS] Inazuma Eleven Go: Shine/Dark (Level 5) - 200,000
[PS3] PlayStation 3 Hardware (SCE) - 105,000
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII-2 (Square Enix) - 650,000
[PSV] Playstation Vita Hardware (SCE) - 250,000
[PSV] Minna no Golf 6 (Hot Shots Golf) (SCE) - 55,000
[PSV] Uncharted: Golden Abyss (SCE) - 35,000
[PSV] Dynasty Warriors Next (Koei Tecmo) -[/QUOTE] - 40,000
[3DS] Inazuma Eleven Go: Shine/Dark (Level 5) - 200,000
[PS3] PlayStation 3 Hardware (SCE) - 105,000
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII-2 (Square Enix) - 650,000
[PSV] Playstation Vita Hardware (SCE) - 250,000
[PSV] Minna no Golf 6 (Hot Shots Golf) (SCE) - 55,000
[PSV] Uncharted: Golden Abyss (SCE) - 35,000
[PSV] Dynasty Warriors Next (Koei Tecmo) -[/QUOTE] - 40,000
[3DS] Nintendo 3DS Hardware (Nintendo) - 455,392
[3DS] Inazuma Eleven Go: Shine/Dark (Level 5) - 258,906
[PS3] PlayStation 3 Hardware (SCE) - 84,270
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII-2 (Square Enix) - 490,567
[PSV] Playstation Vita Hardware (SCE) - 200,002
[PSV] Minna no Golf 6 (Hot Shots Golf) (SCE) - 61,871
[PSV] Uncharted: Golden Abyss (SCE) - 46,765
[PSV] Dynasty Warriors Next (Koei Tecmo) - 29,463
[3DS] Inazuma Eleven Go: Shine/Dark (Level 5) - 258,906
[PS3] PlayStation 3 Hardware (SCE) - 84,270
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII-2 (Square Enix) - 490,567
[PSV] Playstation Vita Hardware (SCE) - 200,002
[PSV] Minna no Golf 6 (Hot Shots Golf) (SCE) - 61,871
[PSV] Uncharted: Golden Abyss (SCE) - 46,765
[PSV] Dynasty Warriors Next (Koei Tecmo) - 29,463
the DSlite never matched the infamous 600k week by the DSphat.
if there's a massive new record. it has to be now.