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[x3r0123]

lol ff13-2 bombing and 3ds outselling the vita. It will be interesting to see the sales number next week.

 

[Mpl90]

Another thing: despite the fact PSP only had one day counted, and that it sold 166k in that day...

4 PSP Minna no GOLF Portable 65,900
07./00. [PSV] Hot Shots Golf: World Invitational <SPT> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2011.12.17} (¥4.980) - 61.412 / NEW

 

[StickSoldier]

lol ff13-2 bombing and 3ds outselling the vita. It will be interesting to see the sales number next week.

Yeah, that's pretty crazy. And there's still a bunch of Vita's out there waiting to be picked up from some reports. Next week could be very surprising.

 

[gkryhewy]

Serious question -- is it a good idea to buy Nintendo stock at this point?

The stock is currently at a cyclical low. If you can live with some short-term volatility (see Opiate's post), I would say this is generally a good time to buy Nintendo stock (unless you think the Wii U is likely to be a disaster).

 

[Brazil]

Another thing: despite the fact PSP only had one day counted, and that it sold 166k in that day...

4 PSP Minna no GOLF Portable 65,900
07./00. [PSV] Hot Shots Golf: World Invitational <SPT> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2011.12.17} (¥4.980) - 61.412 / NEW

You have to take in consideration that the PSP's launch line-up was weaker than the Vita's. There were less quality titles to buy, so more early adopters ended picking up HSG.

Yeah but if you add digital sales wouldn't be surprising if the Vita version is higher. Basically all Hot Shots buyers on PSP bought a Vita?

This, also.

 

[Mrbob]

Another thing: despite the fact PSP only had one day counted, and that it sold 166k in that day...

4 PSP Minna no GOLF Portable 65,900
07./00. [PSV] Hot Shots Golf: World Invitational <SPT> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2011.12.17} (¥4.980) - 61.412 / NEW

Yeah but if you add digital sales wouldn't be surprising if the Vita version is higher. Basically all Hot Shots buyers on PSP bought a Vita?

 

[Cygnus X-1]

3DS is on track to cross the four million mark in Japanese domestic sales by the end of the year, Nikkei reported today.

Nikkei sourced statistics from Enterbrain, a separate tracker from Media Create, which we use for our our sales data). For the third week of December (12/12 to 12/18), Enterbrain reported 390,000 units sold for the 3DS (a bit higher than the 360,000 units Media Create reported). This gives the system 3.6 million life to date.

With two weeks left in the year, the system will almost certainly reach the 4 million mark. It could even reach it next week as the year-end sales rush approaches its peak.

The 390,000 units sold is the highest weekly total yet for the system, renewing the record from the previous week, when the system sold 380,000 units opposite Monster Hunter 3G's release. These figures represent major year-end boosts for the system, whose average weekly sales total is 80,000 units.

3DS appears to be ahead of schedule in its approach of the four million mark. In an interview with Nikkei on December 6, CEO Satoru Iwata said that he expected the system to reach the four million mark within a year of its launch, or by the end of February 2012.

Again, it would be nice to know if in Japan right now 3DS is near to profitability or not. No foreign exchange losses and sales higher than foresaw make that possibility not so unlikely.

 

[Auto_aim1]

Needless to say, I'm glad Iwata is the head of Nintendo. Even after all that talk about how he was on the hot seat because of horrible start to the 3DS, he was able to come up with a plan to save it, and now it's performing amazing.

Dropping the price [drastically] to boost sales isn't a genius move, though. Don't forget they're still taking a loss on it now.

 

[[Nintex]]

After FFXIV bombed Square Enix was quick to take measures, any indication/rumors they're going to act on these sales results?

 

[Mpl90]

Another thing: this week is the one with the highest numbers of all year (Week 51), right? Or it is the next one?

 

[Spiegel]

Versus is not technically possible on the Vita. I don't think any big budget ps3 game is.

So the next open world game from Kojima is not technically possible on Vita but it's getting a Vita version? Ok

 

[slaughterking]

It will be interesting to see how it tracks after the holiday's given that it will be growing with the userbase as opposed to MH Tri. I think 1.5Mish sounds about right to me.

I think a budget re-release for TriG would be wise and could make a real difference in the long run. Those re-releases were a tremendous help on the PSP when the franchise was still growing and it would surely be convenient to have a nicely priced Monster Hunter on the shelves that new 3DS owners over the next year would want to pick up.

 

[Cygnus X-1]

This is an area I know more about: Nintendo would qualify as a highly volatile asset. Risk/reward is high. If you're asking if it's likely/sure to go up, it isn't. In the short term, it's likely to go down, as any overvaluation related to Christmas sales has already occured.

I second that. But don't you think that the bottom has now been reached and that a slow rise has to be expected?

 

[NeonZ]

Sequels and spinoffos to mainline FF/DQ games are necessary because of the increasing expenses for producing current-gen games while the sales for these mainline games are flat (or declining, in the case of FF). Remember that Square Enix reported a heavy loss last fiscal year.

Do you really need "sequels" to reuse material? I've mentioned this in a previous topic. They could have reused assets, but they shouldn't have made this a sequel to FFXIII.

If you look at the earlier games from FFI to V, there were often reused assets or systems (or new assets clearly based on older ones) in spite of none of them having any story ties to each other. That's the formula they should have taken for this game. "FFXV" with some reused assets, not "FFXIII-2".

 

[Cygnus X-1]

Another thing: this week is the one with the highest numbers of all year (Week 51), right? Or it is the next one?

Next one. Week 51 is the biggest in Japan usually.

 

[H_Prestige]

I think Square is going to have to adapt to the reality that all of the most popular JRPG series

- Pokemon
- Monster Hunter
- Dragon Quest

are all

1) portable
2) multiplayer

Of course, the fact that FF13 had a lukewarm reception and FF14 was downright terrible probably didn't help.

How do you market FFXV (or vs XIII) in a way that drags the franchise back to 2.5-3.5 million units in sales in Japan? Particularly if you make it exclusively for a console like Wii U or PS4? The Western sales of FF will keep the series profitable because we still go gaga for the production values, but I feel that in a post-Skyrim world even those sales will start to dry up.

FF's problem isn't that it's not portable (that would make overall sales plummet actually). It's that the game's have been by and large shit, and they take way too long to make.

 

[dvolovets]

I second that. But don't you think that the bottom has now been reached and that a slow rise has to be expected?

These are my thoughts as well, but I am not particularly knowledgeable about stocks... just looking at the situation objectively -- assuming the Wii U doesn't bomb -- how much worse can it get?

 

[StickSoldier]

Dropping the price [drastically] to boost sales isn't a genius move, though. Don't forget they're still taking a loss on it now.

Well he did lower the price rather quickly, which I'm not sure many others would have accepted their failures in such a short amount of time. I understand there taking a loss on the 3DS now, but their software is pushing some great numbers which would probably not have happened without that quick price drop.

Edit: I never meant to say it was a genius move, just the right move. I never understood the reasoning for it to be $250 after the backlash it received when the price was unveiled.

 

[Emhemed]

Looks like the 3DS has started to dominate the market now. Vita with an impressive start, it should be interesting to see how would the two compete next year.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Dropping the price [drastically] to boost sales isn't a genius move, though. Don't forget they're still taking a loss on it now.

The swiftness and degree of the drop was what's important, and yes it was a pretty risky move that's seemingly paid off. Makes you wonder how things might be today if Sony had done the same for PS3 way back when.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Seeing all those Wii games show up, it makes me wonder how much ground Wii software will make back up on PSP software, now that Vita has arrived. Of course this is probably Wii's last hurrah, short of a big Wii U delay.

For Final Fantasy fans: how irreperable is this damage to the brand name?

The FF brand name was already in decline before this happened. What sort of bounce back would you expect if SE announced a new, mainline FF today?

Personally, it didn't really damage the "Final Fantasy" brand, because it's been more than a decade since that had any sort of developer or style consistency. My faith in "Final Fantasy brought to you by Motomu Toriyama" is pretty well shot, though.

The effect was probably nill. I mean the DS only beat those sales 3 or 4 times over the span of 7 years.

Combining all DS models I get six. Twice in December 2004, three times in December 2005, once in December 2006.

Of particular note, that 2005 year when DS was exploding, its 12-12 week was 409K. Ahead of 3DS this week, but not by a monster amount. Next week is the one to fall way behind, if any.

 

[[Nintex]]

The swiftness and degree of the drop was what's important, and yes it was a pretty risky move that's seemingly paid off. Makes you wonder how things might be today if Sony had done the same for PS3 way back when.

Sony was already taking a loss on hardware so Stringer would be leading the company from a basement in his underwear. What I also never understood was that Nintendo said they wanted to drop the GameCube price like they did with the 3DS, they called this a 'missed opportunity' but it already hit rock bottom ($99) in a very short time. Taking a hit on potentially very succesful hardware is one thing but bleeding too much money on a failed producht is a different ball game.

 

[bigtroyjon]

These are my thoughts as well, but I am not particularly knowledgeable about stocks... just looking at the situation objectively -- assuming the Wii U doesn't bomb -- how much worse can it get?

To answer that question you need to look at how the company is currently valued and if that's a true representation of the future. They might not ever have another year as bad as this one but that doesn't mean the price is bottomed out if they are still over valued.

 

[Spiegel]

The swiftness and degree of the drop was what's important, and yes it was a pretty risky move that's seemingly paid off. Makes you wonder how things might be today if Sony had done the same for PS3 way back when.

Sony wouldn't exist.

Nintendo dropped the price from profit to small loss. If Sony would've done the same they'd be dropping the price from huge loss to "we would be winning more money if we gave these away for free"

 

[Labadal]

Not that I contribute to this topic or anything, but if FFXIII-2 sells over 550k first week, I'll not post in MC threads for 6 months.

Should I feel bad?

 

[Cygnus X-1]

To answer that question you need to look at how the company is currently valued and if that's a true representation of the future. They might not ever have another year as bad as this one but that doesn't mean the price is bottomed out if they are still over valued.

I don't think they are currently much overvalued since the stock price now is roughly 1000 Yen higher than the Gamecube's period.

 

[electroplankton]

So how much of the FFXIII-2 bomba can be attributed to the fact that they launched the same week as the Vita, and the week after a new Monster Hunter? Seems like really poor timing on their part. The top 2 consoles sold close to 700k units and FFXIII-2 isn't on either of those consoles.

Once it was like all the other games should have been worried about Final Fantasy. Now it's Final Fantasy that should be afraid of other games?

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Should I feel bad?

Are you Motomu Toriyama?

 

[Mpl90]

Are you Motomu Toriyama?

Maybe he is, who knows.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

FF's problem isn't that it's not portable (that would make overall sales plummet actually). It's that the game's have been by and large shit, and they take way too long to make.

Would it really though? Everyone assumed this after DQ8 -> DQ9, and Japanese gamers didn't give a shit. Would (what's left of) the FF fanbase in Japan get up in arms if the games went back to PS2 production values and were released on 3DS/Vita?

Reading the H2H thread, and seeing that the new game drops to 15fps and averages ~25fps, is ramping up to next gen hardware really going to make this situation any better? Keep in mind this game only sold marginally better than Crisis Core or Type-0, which probably had a fraction of the production values.

 

[airmangataosenai]

The effect was probably nill. I mean the DS only beat those sales 3 or 4 times over the span of 7 years.

More like 3 to 4 times in the first year.

 

[Brazil]

Should I feel bad?

Famitsu will report 549k, so no.

 

[Opiate]

Just wondering Opiate, who will you considering investing in right now? That includes first party and third party.

I really wouldn't recommend investing in gaming at all right now. The entire market is extremely volatile and I don't see a great deal of upside -- or rather, the upside is more along the lines of "we're still in business 5 years from now," rather than what you're really looking for, like "our company is twice the size it was 5 years ago."

Put another way, I don't think "traditional" gaming is going away any time soon (As iOS prophets have predicted) but at the same time I don't see a great deal of room for growth, which is really what you're looking for while investing in the technology sector.

 

[Labadal]

Are you Motomu Toriyama?

I'm Tetsuya Nomura. I told you guys I had my own vision of what a Final Fantasy game is.

 

[Cipherr]

FF's problem isn't that it's not portable (that would make overall sales plummet actually).

We reaaaaaaaaaaaally dont know that. All we know, is that vocal minority would oppose the shift to handhelds, just like they did for DQ9. But in the end it became the highest selling entry in the series.

And their long ass development times would decrease simply because of a shift to handhelds. Im not saying they should do it, Im just saying, we dont have reason to believe it would hurt sales, we actually have precedent that shows it might help.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

This is an area I know more about: Nintendo would qualify as a highly volatile asset. Risk/reward is high. If you're asking if it's likely/sure to go up, it isn't. In the short term, it's likely to go down, as any overvaluation related to Christmas sales has already occured.

I'm purchasing right after I finish with income taxes for the year. I don't know that I'll double my money again like I did on the Wii launch, but personally think that the rewards will be worth the risk.

 

[marc^o^]

Enterbrain reports 390.000 3DS sold this week.
http://andriasang.com/comzge/3ds_four_million/

 

[Fersis]

Hey guys im a total sales noob but is there a way to check KOF XIII sales?

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Sony wouldn't exist.

Nintendo dropped the price from profit to small loss. If Sony would've done the same they'd be dropping the price from huge loss to "we would be winning more money if we gave these away for free"

Maybe, but the flipside is if Nintendo hadn't taken the drastic measures they did, I think they might've had a PS3-like scenario (in market terms) on their hands.

 

[H_Prestige]

We reaaaaaaaaaaaally dont know that. All we know, is that vocal minority would oppose the shift to handhelds, just like they did for DQ9. But in the end it became the highest selling entry in the series.

And their long ass development times would decrease simply because of a shift to handhelds. Im not saying they should do it, Im just saying, we dont have reason to believe it would hurt sales, we actually have precedent that shows it might help.

DQ was never that big outside Japan in the first place, so they weren't risking anything moving it over to portables. Series like FF sell a lot over here and it is long established as a home console franchise with big production values. If FFXIII were a DS game, I don't see it selling much more than than the 2 million it did in Japan, while there would probably be a significant drop in the west.

SE also has a problem with long dev times on handhelds too. See DQ9, BBS, Tpye-0. They have a problem with how they make games. Their process isn't efficient now that staff size has ballooned.

 

[muu]

I've lost ~2k with Ninty stock, upside being it's inside my Roth IRA so I'm just letting it sleep till it (eventually) recovers. Worst case if the company goes caput I'm still only out like 5K, which is small in the context of retirement portfolios as a whole. The bulk of what I actually buy are utility co stocks w/ nice interest rates.

With the media/market attention so strongly on social/iphone gaming it's still not going to be a great idea to do much more than dabble in gaming related investments. I don't see the WiiU bombing but rises in stock prices like what happened w/ the Wii takes product sales that far, far exceed expectations of those "analysts," beyond which they can spin numbers to say this or that won/lost the war.

 

[Nirolak]

Relative to the series I already said I it will bomb

But 600k first week crawling to 800k lifetime wouldn't be a bomb, it would be a spectacular ultra-mega-bomb, an event so far outside Square's expectations that it would probably change their entire approach to the series for all future installments. Nothing you have said so far indicates an awareness of the magnitude of what exactly you are predicting here.

frankie_baby vindicated.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

DQ was never that big outside Japan in the first place, so they weren't risking anything moving it over to portables. Series like FF sell a lot over here and it is long established as a home console franchise with big production values. If FFXIII were a DS game, I don't see it selling much more than than the 2 million it did in Japan, while there would probably be a significant drop in the west.

SE also has a problem with long dev times on handhelds too. See DQ9, BBS, Tpye-0. They have a problem with how they make games. Their process isn't efficient now that staff size has ballooned.

I think a PS1 styled DS FFXIII could've sold WAY more than 2m in Japan, and I'm not sure western sales would've plummeted quite as far as you think (though I do think they'd be lower).

Not to mention that such a game would've cost orders of magnitude less to produce and taken a fraction of the time. You wouldn't be comparing FFXIII HD to FFXIII DS in a sense, but opportunity cost would be more like FFXIII HD to FFXIII/XIV/XV DS.

 

[AndrewDean84xX]

A week's numbers vs two days. Not really a fair comparison. although sadly people will compare.

Those first day numbers will include all pre-orders. So you're not looking at 2 days of sales, but at least 6 months of hype and anticipation.

Exactly.

 

[waicol]

So as some have stated, 4 million will be reached next week.

 

[frankie_baby]

frankie_baby vindicated.

A nice lol smiley could go well here

 

[slaughterking]

frankie_baby vindicated.

Heh.

 

[Anth0ny]

3DS went up? During Vita launch week? Sheeeeeeeeeeeeit.

XIII-3 confirmed.

Zelda dead as shit.

 

[PerZona]

Oh man, disappointing sales for FFXIII-2 but it's kinda expected anyway....sad to see the FF series selling so bad lol. Even X-2 did 1.9 million copies in the first week. Blah.

And lol @ the 3DS outselling the PS Vita. Looks like kids in Japan are gonna be real happy during Christmas!

 

[jman2050]

In the future people will ask "Where were you when Final Fantasy died?" and we'll all be like "we were in the MC thread"