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[wrowa]

The price is fine for the hardware they offer, it basically obliterates the iPhone 4S in most departments and we all know how much cost an iPhone 4S.

This is true.

And it still doesn't matter.

There is one very important rule regarding handhelds that was established more than 20 years ago and is still true today: "Graphics are nothing. Price is everything."

I don't really understand why Sony put its money yet again on a high-end handheld. The market has changed, and if anything I believe that a high-priced dedicated handheld system has it harder today than in the past ("But the iPhone is more expensive!", yes, but everyone gets his smartphone with a contract). In the longterm Vita might have the advantage that it will not feel old as soon as the 3DS, but if Sony needs to 'ressurect' the Vita first some years down the road I'm not sure if that really pays off.

 

[GDGF]

Holy wow.

 

[electroplankton]

Paper Mario and Animal Crossing will probably be out still in the first half of the year. As well as Luigi's Mansion 2.
But there's still E3, so...COME ON RETRO, ANNOUNCE DONKEY KONG LAND RETURNS, COME ON!!!!

I can totally see Animal Crossing launched during 2012 holidays.
In the meanwhile (may-october): Paper Mario, Luigi's Mansion, Stile Savvy and a Pokémon title in september, keeping in mind that Kart and Land will continue to sell well next year.

 

[[Nintex]]

I can totally see Animal Crossing launched during 2012 holidays.
In the meanwhile (may-october): Paper Mario, Luigi's Mansion, Stile Savvy and a Pokémon title in september, keeping in mind that Kart and Land will continue to sell well next year.

I'm expecting a Kirby game for 3DS by september next year but like I said it's hard to predict at this point.

 

[Mpl90]

I can totally see Animal Crossing launched during 2012 holidays.
In the meanwhile (may-october): Paper Mario, Luigi's Mansion, Stile Savvy and a Pokémon title in september, keeping in mind that Kart and Land will continue to sell well next year.

I think AC will be released in the first half, instead. Call it sixth sense, but considering it was planned for the Q1, and that now has been delayed, I don't see it being now so many months later than the previous possible release date.
But, yeah, September will see probably Pokémon Grey / Juventus too.

...And I'm also expecting a brand new MH spin-off. Or MH3G Best of, as duckroll said a week or two ago.

 

[Exterminieren]

Late 2012 will see a Pokemon/ Animal Crossing/ Tomodachi Collection salvo, with maybe a bit of Zelda, or even, god forbid, a 2D Mario thrown into the mix.

Yeah. They've got plenty on the pile for next holiday.

 

[AceBandage]

I think AC will be released in the first half, instead. Call it sixth sense, but considering it was planned for the Q1, and that now has been delayed, I don't see it being now so many months later than the previous possible release date.
But, yeah, September will see probably Pokémon Grey / Juventus too.

...And I'm also expecting a brand new MH spin-off. Or MH3G Best of, as duckroll said a week or two ago.

A best of with a MH4 demo is pretty much a sure thing, I'd say.

 

[Chris1964]

I read the entire thread, then looked at the mirror and yes, my hair still there.

 

[Mpl90]

Holy wow.

GDGF

Soothsayer

 

[Road]

 

[BurntPork]

It'll happen.
But Call of Duty Vita was nothing more than Sony saying that Activision has promised a CoD title for the Vita.
Nothing exclusive.
No launch title.
Just a CoD down the line...
Yeah...

Plus, even the DS got some CoD games. CoD Vita isn't anymore shocking CoD Wii U. I won't be shocked if 3DS gets one next year as well (though it'll likely be shit, just like the DS games). Meanwhile, Vita will likely get a port that has a fairly limited audience and won't really drive sales that much. the Vita game will do maybe a bit better than the Wii games, but that's it.

 

[Wazzim]

Ok so now the initial shock is gone, we still don't know shit how it'll perform later on.
Hardware LTD sales aren't determined by the first week sales or even month sales, it's determined by the long term sale spikes and momentums. Everybody knows how the PS3 picked up after being nearly dead.
The Vita can get a slim version for the 3DS's price later on and have all those nice features for the same low price, it will be much easier to sell the device by then.

Less than 8 million consoles sold in 5 years would be a colossal failure on the part of the Vita.

Who said it will sell less than 8 million? PS3 picked up like a console would do and the Vita will pick up (hopefully) like a handheld does in Japan. It sold more than the PSP did back in the day didn't it?

 

[jman2050]

Hardware LTD sales aren't determined by the first week sales or even month sales, it's determined by the long term sale spikes and momentums. Everybody knows how the PS3 picked up after being nearly dead.

Less than 8 million consoles sold in 5 years would be a colossal failure on the part of the Vita.

 

[Takao]

Whats up with the PSP bump? no big game. :/
swallowing vita sales?

PSP is the best handheld on the market, and is still receiving new content.

 

[BurntPork]

On another note, why are people still buying the DSi? Really, what?

 

[test_account]

Less than 8 million consoles sold in 5 years would be a colossal failure on the part of the Vita.

I think he means that systems can pick up sales, not that Vita will sell exactly like the PS3. But it wasnt only for the PS3, but for the PSP and 3DS as well.

 

[Takao]

On another note, why are people still buying the DSi? Really, what?

Confused Japanese Grandmas?

 

[Souldriver]

God fucking dammit, PSVita?

Let's hope that once/if more software comes out, people want to pick it up.

 

[slaughterking]

On another note, why are people still buying the DSi? Really, what?

Because it's the actual best handheld on the market!

 

[Brazil]

Plus, even the DS got some CoD games. CoD Vita isn't anymore shocking CoD Wii U. I won't be shocked if 3DS gets one next year as well (though it'll likely be shit, just like the DS games). Meanwhile, Vita will likely get a port that has a fairly limited audience and won't really drive sales that much. the Vita game will do maybe a bit better than the Wii games, but that's it.

The DS Call of Duty games are far from shit. They're the best they can be given the limitations of the system.

 

[BurntPork]

Because it's the actual best handheld on the market!

I said DSi, not DSi LL.

The DS Call of Duty games are far from shit. They're the best they can be given the limitations of the system.

Eh, I guess I shouldn't judge a book by it's cover. They're made by N-space, right?

 

[Gianni Merryman]

Makes you wonder why Sony were so determined to release the PSVita in Japan first, it has certainly not been warranted (based on these launch numbers).

Simply because Japanese is strategically probably the most important territory worldwide, especially if we're talking about handheld consoles.

If you make it to be successful in Japan, it means you may gain the support of important Japanese companies such as Square-Enix, Capcom, Namco, Atlus and so on to release their games on their platform, that's why all 3 major players put so much economic effort in Japanese territory, even stooping to sell at a loss in order to stay afloat if needs be - Microsoft with XBox and XBox360 never had a chance there, but they have never surrendered for some reason.

Sure NA is very important as well, but it's not nearly much as big a handheld market as Japan.
As for Europe, as a matter of fact it's Sony's biggest stronghold in general, but they are aware that NA is strategically more important, in any case the biggest software houses are North-American - EA, Activision, Valve, etcetera - and Japanese, without their support you can't go anywhere far, so releasing Vita first in Europe with a poor line-up and then in the rest of the world would have made little sense methinks.

 

[ElFly]

Some corporate infighting most likely or Sony expected a stronger showing from Japanese third party partners when they planned all this. They seemed quite surprised and pissed when Nintendo got in bed with Capcom.

I have to question that they did not see it coming.

MHTri was a huge warning.

 

[SatelliteOfLove]

Vita Present, 3DS Past?

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

I suspect a 2D Mario, maybe Animal Crossing, plus some casual stuff (Brain Training/Big Brain Academy) + whatever other surprises.

Nintendo needs NSMB3 for the WiiU.

 

[Version 3.0]

Exactly.

I admit I was the first to call the above "Nintendo slammed the PANIC button, lol!" but now I see it from a different POV.

Some higher up, dunno who maybe Iwata, maybe Miyamoto or the whole board of directors calmed the fuck down, sat and opened MS Excel. They filled in some columns, ran few macros and blamo: the plan to "save" 3DS was prepared. Everything was calculated in it: Iwata's price cut, Ambassador games, 40% price drop etc. everything. They knew all the steps to fix what went wrong.

Nintendo knows its own fucking business.

Let's not give them too much credit. The 3DS shouldn't have needed saving in the first place, if they're so savvy.

And let's not forget that they didn't even try to save the Wii. It was the fastest-selling system of all time, with the potential to sell possibly another 50-60 million units or so, and they practically abandoned it two years before its replacement is ready to go.

 

[BurntPork]

Simply because Japanese is strategically probably the most important territory worldwide, especially if we're talking about handheld consoles.

If you make it to be successful in Japan, it means you may gain the support of important Japanese companies such as Square-Enix, Capcom, Namco, Atlus and so on to release their games on their platform, that's why all 3 major players put so much economic effort in Japanese territory, even stooping to sell at a loss in order to stay afloat if needs be - Microsoft with XBox and XBox360 never had a chance there, but they have never surrendered for some reason.

Sure NA is very important as well, but it's not nearly much as big a handheld market as Japan.
As for Europe, as a matter of fact it's Sony's biggest stronghold in general, but they are aware that NA is strategically more important, in any case the biggest software houses are North-American - EA, Activision, Valve, etcetera - and Japanese, without their support you can't go anywhere far, so releasing Vita first in Europe with a poor line-up and then in the rest of the world would have made little sense methinks.

And this will probably end up doing the exact opposite of that intention. :/

 

[slaughterking]

Simply because Japanese is strategically probably the most important territory worldwide, especially if we're talking about handheld consoles.

If you make it to be successful in Japan, it means you may gain the support of important Japanese companies such as Square-Enix, Capcom, Namco, Atlus and so on to release their games on their platform, that's why all 3 major players put so much economic effort in Japanese territory, even stooping to sell at a loss in order to stay afloat if needs be - Microsoft with XBox and XBox360 never had a chance there, but they have never surrendered for some reason.

Sure NA is very important as well, but it's not nearly much as big a handheld market as Japan.
As for Europe, as a matter of fact it's Sony's biggest stronghold in general, but they are aware that NA is strategically more important, in any case the biggest software houses are North-American - EA, Activision, Valve, etcetera - and Japanese, without their support you can't go anywhere far, so releasing Vita first in Europe with a poor line-up and then in the rest of the world would have made little sense methinks.

The problem is that Japanese handheld games are traditionally not strategically important outside of Japan. Except if you're Nintendo (which Sony is not, btw). The occasional Kingdom Hearts or Final Fantasy spin-off may sell a fair amount of copies if it's not released on a completely dead platform, but Sony should really look into getting some kind of meaningful western support if they want to be at all successful with the Vita in NA und Europe.

 

[Brazil]

Eh, I guess I shouldn't judge a book by it's cover. They're made by N-space, right?

Yes.

 

[jman2050]

I think he means that systems can pick up sales, not that Vita will sell exactly like the PS3. But it wasnt only for the PS3, but for the PSP and 3DS as well.

Understood, I just don't like using the current-gen consoles as a benchmark because this gen as a whole was pretty disappointing sales-wise. On one hand you have a console which started out selling nothing and eventually pulled itself to kinda sorta mediocre, and on the other hand you have a console that sprinted right out of the game but from a combination of factors died about 4 years earlier than it should have.

The problem is that Japanese handheld games are traditionally not strategically important outside of Japan. Except if you're Nintendo (which Sony is not, btw). The occasional Kingdom Hearts or Final Fantasy spin-off may sell a fair amount of copies if it's not released on a completely dead platform, but Sony should really look into getting some kind of meaningful western support if they want to be at all successful with the Vita in NA und Europe.

Gunning for western support for a handheld is a dead-end. That's just the reality of the market.

 

[Jinfash]

This is true.

And it still doesn't matter.

There is one very important rule regarding handhelds that was established more than 20 years ago and is still true today: "Graphics are nothing. Price is everything."

I don't really understand why Sony put its money yet again on a high-end handheld. The market has changed, and if anything I believe that a high-priced dedicated handheld system has it harder today than in the past ("But the iPhone is more expensive!", yes, but everyone gets his smartphone with a contract). In the longterm Vita might have the advantage that it will not feel old as soon as the 3DS, but if Sony needs to 'ressurect' the Vita first some years down the road I'm not sure if that really pays off.

It's true, the public will always respond to price no matter what, because there's no magical inverse relation between interest and graphics. However I don't think the price is the lone factor, as compelling software is just as important. The higher the asking price is, the more compelling and attractive your software has to be. And by compelling and attractive, I obviously don't mean "pretty."

With the smartphone-like innards of the Vita, Sony can comfortably drop the price within a year or two. So all they had to do was survive that period on the back of a strong catalog. However Mingol and co. are not strong enough to sustain the system throughout this period at this price. MH3G and a promise of MH4, on the other hand, could have been strong enough to pull costumers and software competitors targeting the same demographic.

Unfortunately for Sony, that card is off the table. So it basically comes down to this: Either they dig up or shop for an IP (or more) strong enough to carry the Vita through these rough times at its current price, OR cut the price to a point where Mingol and co. (and whatever mid-tier software they have lined up) seem compelling enough to the masses.

That's basically my 2 cents. I hope it still makes sense tomorrow morning. It's getting too late.

 

[ElFly]

I feel we are forgetting the UMD BC debacle too.

They did the transition from the PSP to the Vita specially hard, with their stupidly priced UMD exchange program. Letting publisher charge whatever for BC was probably a small thing in the disaster of the Vita, but it must have scared more than one PSP owner into selling their catalog and jumping into the 3DS.

 

[UncleSporky]

Plus, even the DS got some CoD games. CoD Vita isn't anymore shocking CoD Wii U. I won't be shocked if 3DS gets one next year as well (though it'll likely be shit, just like the DS games).

I can't really speak for the DS CoDs, but given that the 3DS can pull off at least a Wii-level game, I think at least some people would be satisfied with a portable, online, decent looking, 3D Call of Duty.

It'd probably control best with the extra stick attachment.

But seriously the Wii Call of Duties have been surprisingly good and had a decent following. They were even patched!

 

[slaughterking]

Gunning for western support for a handheld is a dead-end. That's just the reality of the market.

Yes, I absolutely agree, which makes you wonder what Sony's plan for western markets is. Lesser versions of Uncharted, Fifa und CoD wont cut it.

 

[ASIS]

God fucking dammit, PSVita?

Let's hope that once/if more software comes out, people want to pick it up.

The only thing confusing me is the fact that it sold so low on a holiday season. But regardless, I don't think this is very telling of PSV's future at all. Let's just wait and see before anyone starts panicking.

 

[Gianni Merryman]

And this will probably end up doing the exact opposite of that intention. :/

I think they had no choice, launching first in Japan and then, with a stronger line-up in the rest of the world, is the best choice for them in my humble opinion; Vita needs Japanese software-houses' support, besides they couldn't leave the December season to 3DS.

 

[Alrus]

Some corporate infighting most likely or Sony expected a stronger showing from Japanese third party partners when they planned all this. They seemed quite surprised and pissed when Nintendo got in bed with Capcom.

Really? Where did they show they were surprised by that announcement? I'm curious. Because they should have known Nintendo was really interested in the franchise after MH Tri.

If they were expecting Capcom to not even think about the 3DS and go directly to the Vita for their next MH, that's some crazy over-confidence...

 

[Cromat]

Sony should have reconsidered their strategy.
I seriously can't think of any reason why anyone would believe the Vita will be a commercial success.

What they should have done was to wait and pull a creative move. I think the following would have been a better course of action:

Release a single device for both the home and the portable market. Something like a gaming tablet with gaming controls that comes with a dock that connects it to an HDTV and supports using DualShock controllers. With advances in technology in the next two years its possible for an iPad-like device to be slightly as powerful as the PS3. Have it run Android and cost about $400-$500, and that sort of device might have a shot of carving a market for itself. Call it the Playstation 4 so no one would have any illusions on what it is.

However, Vita will find it very hard to compete against the 3DS (and PSP?) on one front and iPods/iPads/Smartphones on another.

 

[I'm an expert]

It's nothing scientific but every store I went to over this week (smaller ones and larger chains) had the Wifi Vita sold out. It did seem like they hadn't restocked the Wifi supply yet. The software thing doesn't surprise me, the prices at retail are pretty high for some games and most people here have no issues getting used copies.

 

[test_account]

Understood, I just don't like using the current-gen consoles as a benchmark because this gen as a whole was pretty disappointing sales-wise. On one hand you have a console which started out selling nothing and eventually pulled itself to kinda sorta mediocre, and on the other hand you have a console that sprinted right out of the game but from a combination of factors died about 4 years earlier than it should have.

Yep. I would use the DS and PSP sales for benchmark instead of the consoles. Not that i expect the 3DS and Vita to match their predecessor's LTD numbers, but handhelds are usually "1 pr. person" while consoles are usually "1 pr. household".

 

[Fantastical]

This is true.

And it still doesn't matter.

There is one very important rule regarding handhelds that was established more than 20 years ago and is still true today: "Graphics are nothing. Price is everything."

I don't really understand why Sony put its money yet again on a high-end handheld. The market has changed, and if anything I believe that a high-priced dedicated handheld system has it harder today than in the past ("But the iPhone is more expensive!", yes, but everyone gets his smartphone with a contract). In the longterm Vita might have the advantage that it will not feel old as soon as the 3DS, but if Sony needs to 'ressurect' the Vita first some years down the road I'm not sure if that really pays off.

I think you're neglecting a very big component of the formula and that is software. Nintendo has sold so many handhelds based on Pokemon alone.

 

[djplaeskool]

What they should have done was to wait and pull a creative move. I think the following would have been a better course of action:

Release a single device for both the home and the portable market. Something like a gaming tablet with gaming controls that comes with a dock that connects it to an HDTV and supports using DualShock controllers. With advances in technology in the next two years its possible for an iPad-like device to be slightly as powerful as the PS3. Have it run Android and cost about $400-$500, and that sort of device might have a shot of carving a market for itself.

This sounds basically the Sony S tablet (minus HDMI out).
A combination of these technologies (Vita and Tablets) would have been interesting, but I'm not sure about its viability.

 

[Orgen]

I read the entire thread, then looked at the mirror and yes, my hair still there.

Fucking LOL. I don't know if it's for the same motives but that was my reaction too.

 

[gogogow]

Really? Where did they show they were surprised by that announcement? I'm curious. Because they should have known Nintendo was really interested in the franchise after MH Tri.

If they were expecting Capcom to not even think about the 3DS and go directly to the Vita for their next MH, that's some crazy over-confidence...

I think they were more pissed than surprised imo with the comment of the SCEJ president Kawano about a future installment of MH on the Vita: "I don't know. You will have to ask Capcom".

 

[UncleSporky]

With the smartphone-like innards of the Vita, Sony can comfortably drop the price within a year or two.

People keep saying this, but how viable is this really? Is it just armchair BSing, or is there a real precedent that given X level tech, it will afford them a $Y price drop in Z months?

No matter how smartphoney the innards are, it's still got an OLED screen. Or are they expected to be able to make the most gains as OLEDs go down in price?

Is Nintendo not expected to see similar gains over the next couple years? I know they just dropped the price, but you're talking a year or two...I could see Nintendo being able to counter whatever Sony does when that time comes around.

Worse is that they've got further to go to achieve parity - at least $20 less than the 3DS price to have similar OOB digital content functionality. Honestly it's surprising how much the 3DS uses its SD card for, the main screen's pretty barren until it loads in the icons.

 

[jman2050]

What they should have done was to wait and pull a creative move. I think the following would have been a better course of action:

Release a single device for both the home and the portable market. Something like a gaming tablet with gaming controls that comes with a dock that connects it to an HDTV and supports using DualShock controllers. With advances in technology in the next two years its possible for an iPad-like device to be slightly as powerful as the PS3. Have it run Android and cost about $400-$500, and that sort of device might have a shot of carving a market for itself. Call it the Playstation 4 so no one would have any illusions on what it is.

I'm positive this is the endgame many companies are looking for, including possibly Nintendo. I don't think we're quite there yet though, ask again in 5-10 years or so.

 

[Jinfash]

People keep saying this, but how viable is this really? Is it just armchair BSing, or is there a real precedent that given X level tech, it will afford them a $Y price drop in Z months?

No matter how smartphoney the innards are, it's still got an OLED screen. Or are they expected to be able to make the most gains as OLEDs go down in price?

Of course there's a precedent, set by smartphones themselves. The prices drop down rapidly due to the high production of shared technology.

OLED screens are being used in smartphones as well, fwiw. And unless I'm missing something, I don't think it crippled this trend.

And let's not forget that the Vita is being sold at a small loss, or possibly breaking even (conflicting reports). Which is a first for a Sony platform. Whichever it is, they're in a more comfortable position than they've ever been.

 

[Fantastical]

I'm positive this is the endgame many companies are looking for, including possibly Nintendo. I don't think we're quite there yet though, ask again in 5-10 years or so.

Why would Nintendo want to sell you one device when they could sell you two? That also translates to less software sales total as well.

 

[frankie_baby]

People keep saying this, but how viable is this really? Is it just armchair BSing, or is there a real precedent that given X level tech, it will afford them a $Y price drop in Z months?

No matter how smartphoney the innards are, it's still got an OLED screen. Or are they expected to be able to make the most gains as OLEDs go down in price?

Is Nintendo not expected to see similar gains over the next couple years? I know they just dropped the price, but you're talking a year or two...I could see Nintendo being able to counter whatever Sony does when that time comes around.

Worse is that they've got further to go to achieve parity - at least $20 less than the 3DS price to have similar OOB digital content functionality. Honestly it's surprising how much the 3DS uses its SD card for, the main screen's pretty barren until it loads in the icons.

I wouldn't be surprised if the oled gets taken out as a cost cutting measure in the revision

 

[MeBecomingI]

Honestly, the Vita hardware numbers don't surprise at all. Hell, I was intending to post in the last week Media Create thread about how I expect the Vita to do under 100k.

Basically, the Vita has early launch games that aren't system sellers and has the largest price tag, up against the holiday juggernaut of Nintendo and a cheaper, Monster Hunter playing 3DS which also has a pretty decent library of games. Oh, and beat by the cheaper PSP with a massive library of games at the holiday time... Sony will just have to try and pry over the PSP people now.

I am not surprised at the number at all. And I totally expect the numbers to get lower and lower until they are selling in the 20k - 30k area per week. I am not one for the "Vita is doomed" rhetoric, but the Vita right now is effectively walking on fire because of the way the market has (d)evolved. By the time Sony will drop the price on the Vita, there will be a few more games that people will want, but will these games even be made if the hardware is selling so damn low...? Tough question and I hope Sony has a plan for this... Sony is in this fight for the long haul, and they better be ready to pull out some weapons and fight fire with fire if they want to succeed in Japan, let alone beat Nintendo.

However, if the machine is having a tough time selling in the prime handheld market, the Vita is barely even going to sell in North America. Smartphones reign supreme here and and there is no way the Vita will take that away... likewise with Europe, although I can see the Vita being more successful there than North America because Europe is a little more progressive with devices like this. Of course, European economy might cause havoc, but we'll see.

The sales make me sad, but I'm not surprised. Although I am surprised by some of you seemingly expecting another 300k or something...