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Media Create Sales: Week 51, 2011 (Dec 19 - Dec 25)

dacuk

Member
There's no need to beat around the bush. Coming from someone who wanted the Vita and its so much better hardware/tech to 'beat' the 3DS (as lame as that sounds), this thing is dead in Japan. If Sony would have secured MH4 we could at least hold on to that for the future but they didn't. It's done in Japan. Only thing that could save it is a huge price drop of like $50-100 but that's not gonna happen.

I hope this happens, so I can actually get one.

But Sony now has also to worry about Vita running PSP homebrew code:
 

test_account

XP-39C²
I wouldn't be surprised if the oled gets taken out as a cost cutting measure in the revision
It would surprise me. Are there any cheaper alternatives that looks close to just as good, supports the same resolution and is pretty much just as power efficient?


But Sony now has also to worry about Vita running PSP homebrew code:
It isnt much to worry about at this stage. It isnt much different than that Nintendo have to worry about that the 3DS runs DS homebrew. It has also been said that the PSP stuff can be patched.
 

Cromat

Member
This sounds basically the Sony S tablet (minus HDMI out).
A combination of these technologies (Vita and Tablets) would have been interesting, but I'm not sure about its viability.

I think it is at least more viable than the Vita. It will also streamline Sony's business model. Just one multipurpose Playstation, reasonably priced as a tablet and a gaming console.
 
Sony should have reconsidered their strategy.
I seriously can't think of any reason why anyone would believe the Vita will be a commercial success.

What they should have done was to wait and pull a creative move. I think the following would have been a better course of action:

Release a single device for both the home and the portable market. Something like a gaming tablet with gaming controls that comes with a dock that connects it to an HDTV and supports using DualShock controllers. With advances in technology in the next two years its possible for an iPad-like device to be slightly as powerful as the PS3. Have it run Android and cost about $400-$500, and that sort of device might have a shot of carving a market for itself. Call it the Playstation 4 so no one would have any illusions on what it is.

However, Vita will find it very hard to compete against the 3DS (and PSP?) on one front and iPods/iPads/Smartphones on another.

I expect that we will see Windows 8 tablets that do exactly this with 360 games but I don't think that would replace next gen.
 

wrowa

Member
I think you're neglecting a very big component of the formula and that is software. Nintendo has sold so many handhelds based on Pokemon alone.

I'm not, I was simply only looking at the hardware side of things. :) Software is another matter alltogether.
 
The problem is that Japanese handheld games are traditionally not strategically important outside of Japan. Except if you're Nintendo (which Sony is not, btw). The occasional Kingdom Hearts or Final Fantasy spin-off may sell a fair amount of copies if it's not released on a completely dead platform, but Sony should really look into getting some kind of meaningful western support if they want to be at all successful with the Vita in NA und Europe.

But to begin with Western software-houses have never had that much interest in handhelds and I don't think they're going to change their mind any soon; even with DS's huge success worldwide they couldn't care less, maybe it's just they are not able to come up with valid games suitable to platforms such as DS, that need a whole different strategy than home-consoles.

On the other hand Japanese software-houses have maybe a better understanding of handhelds' gaming philosophy than biggest Westerners developers, no surprise they are the ones bringing to the world games such as Wario ware, Pokemon and all those JRPGs.


And in the first place, as a matter of fact Western market like much more home-consoles than handhelds.

People in the West as a habit generally prefer to play in their living rooms on huge HDTVs rather than on tiny screens, and this makes a huge difference, so I don't believe it's just about the lack of games that are appealing to the Western market: if we look at PSP it was much more western-appealing - at least in its early stage - in my understanding than DS, yet we all know how it ended though.
 

Erethian

Member
vitaw2ltda7wsl.png

With no sign of any shortages, I wonder if we could see the cumulative total for Vita fall behind the PSP relatively soon.

Which... would be very bad.
 
Poor Vita. MHP3rd HD Version could've really helped about now.

I actually wonder what Atlus is going to do after Persona 4 drops for the Vita. 3DS is more in their wheelhouse of re-releasing a bunch of PS2 games after all.

Nocturne 3DS, Devil Survivor 2 Overclocked, Etrian Odyssey IV. Plus Persona 5 on the HD twins and Persona 2ep for PSP.

No clue on Vita. Maybe more ports (Catherine, Trauma Team, etc)?
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
A best of with a MH4 demo is pretty much a sure thing, I'd say.

That, or the MH spin-off with the MH4 demo.
Or...something not so predictable: a brand new IP, with a certain original gameplay, good productions values, which uses the MH4 demo as one of the marketing angles.
 
It'll be interesting to see how Vita performs in the future. Monster Hunter should've been Sony's ace in the whole, but they fucked that up.

They need software, stat. Final Fantasy spin-offs, Tales games, whatever they can pay for. Their internal Japanese studios aren't enough to sell a system.
 

beril

Member
Vitas chance of getting western support depends largely on how easy it is to port PS3/360 games for it, and for how long those platforms will remaion relevant. If it is powerful enough to handle cross platform releases without too much of a downgrade it's possible that developers start adding a VITA SKU to their PS360PC games. But we don't really know if that's possible yet, and it certainly wont be possible once development moves on to the next generation of consoles. If it can prove there is a market for this type of games on a portable before then it might get some continued support, but as of now no western developer is going to make exclusive Vita games. Maybe there's a chance of it getting some indie support. I'm not sure if we've heard anything about Sonys stance on indie development or if there'll be a follow up to the PSP minis brand.
 
But to begin with Western software-houses have never had that much interest in handhelds and I don't think they're going to change their mind any soon; even with DS's huge success worldwide they couldn't care less, maybe it's just they are not able to come up with valid games suitable to platforms such as DS, that need a whole different strategy than home-consoles.

On the other hand Japanese software-houses have maybe a better understanding of handhelds' gaming philosophy than biggest Westerners developers, no surprise they are the ones bringing to the world games such as Wario ware, Pokemon and all those JRPGs.


And in the first place, as a matter of fact Western market like much more home-consoles than handhelds.

People in the West as a habit generally prefer to play in their living rooms on huge HDTVs rather than on tiny screens, and this makes a huge difference, so I don't believe it's just about the lack of games that are appealing to the Western market: if we look at PSP it was much more western-appealing - at least in its early stage - in my understanding than DS, yet we all know how it ended though.
Well, yeah. I agree with pretty much everything you say. I don't unterstand what we are talking about anymore, though!? :p

To get back to the earlier point: I don't think the early Japan launch did anything for the Vita. They have not launched with a strong line-up that appeals to Japan, they have not secured any meaningful Japanese support (that we know of) and the Vita launch was overall just very unimpressive, which is surely not making a good first impression and wont create any confidence. If Japanese 3rd party games are strategically important in the grander scheme Sony is doing a bad job to somehow acknowledge that with their actions.
It's like the Vita is just kind of there and Sony doesn't know what to do with it.
 

DGRE

Banned
Seeing lots of posts about Vita's launch software not being great as some kind of excuse.

If there is a person in the world that thinks 3DS's launch line-up was better, I laugh in your general direction.
 
Seeing lots of posts about Vita's launch software not being great as some kind of excuse.

If there is a person in the world that thinks 3DS's launch line-up was better, I laugh in your general direction.
And that just makes Vita's situation even worse...
The 3DS didn't have amazing software at launch and it still sold pretty well.
Of course the 3DS also had Mario and MK7 on the horizon. The Vita has...
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Seeing lots of posts about Vita's launch software not being great as some kind of excuse.

If there is a person in the world that thinks 3DS's launch line-up was better, I laugh in your general direction.
The Vita line up was good, but it did not have many big seller games.
 
Seeing lots of posts about Vita's launch software not being great as some kind of excuse.

If there is a person in the world that thinks 3DS's launch line-up was better, I laugh in your general direction.

It was arguably better. Not by far, but Layton and Nintendogs are two pretty strong franchises. At least they used to be pretty strong.
 

Takao

Banned
Seeing lots of posts about Vita's launch software not being great as some kind of excuse.

If there is a person in the world that thinks 3DS's launch line-up was better, I laugh in your general direction.

There's a difference between quality and marketability in face of extreme competition. Vita's launch lineup is alright in Japan, but it doesn't have any title at the same level of popularity as Nintendogs, or Layton which makes the struggle to compete against all of the other software coming out on PS3, PSP, and 3DS difficult.
 

cj_iwakura

Member
The Vita overall has a solid launch lineup, I think.

As compared to the likes of Steel Diver and ports, anyway.
(Nintendogs+cats as a $250 worthy launch title? Really? Yeah, enjoy that for all of two hours before you get bored.)

Give it time. I do think they geared the launch games more towards westerners, strangely enough.
 

darkside31337

Tomodachi wa Mahou
Seeing lots of posts about Vita's launch software not being great as some kind of excuse.

If there is a person in the world that thinks 3DS's launch line-up was better, I laugh in your general direction.

I keep seeing this a lot. It really does not matter at all how the Vita compares to the launch 3DS lineup. Vita is not competing with launch 3DS lineup. It's competing with the present 3DS lineup which features the 2 big Mario titles and MonHun. It's obviously not much a competition.
 

jeremy1456

Junior Member
And that just makes Vita's situation even worse...
The 3DS didn't have amazing software at launch and it still sold pretty well.
Of course the 3DS also had Mario and MK7 on the horizon. The Vita has...

Well at least the Vita has the advantage of being a port dumpster for the HD consoles.

That should ensure that it will still have games coming even if it stays on its Gamecube path.
 
Actually, the Vita struggling early on could be a great thing. The ps3's struggles in the west made Sony kickstart internal development in the west. Sony didn't feel the need to put a similar level of effort into Japan because all the big third party games were still essentially ps3 exclusive. Maybe struggling like this will make them realize they need Japanese first party studios too.

SCEJ is a fucking joke, to be honest. I don't want to undersell Polyphony and Japan Studio, because they're two excellent studios, but they're only two studios. They can only do so much, and SCEJ hasn't been aggressive enough in pursuing other talent. Why didn't they go after, say, Platinum Games like SCEA/SCEE went after companies like Media Molecule? And why'd they leave From Software in the dust?

And I still think the Legend of Dragoon was a missed opportunity for them. Yeah, it was a pretty sophomoric effort, but they could've recruited more talent and built upon what was a pretty solid base for a JRPG franchise.
 
It'll be interesting to see how Vita performs in the future. Monster Hunter should've been Sony's ace in the whole, but they fucked that up.

They need software, stat. Final Fantasy spin-offs, Tales games, whatever they can pay for. Their internal Japanese studios aren't enough to sell a system.

I think cannibalizing PS3 is the way forward. Sort of like what they did with Mingol 6, bring the "main" series for PS3 franchises to Vita as the transition path, either exclusively or HD-multi, and focus on stuff Nintendo hasn't nabbed yet. This means stuff like Yakuza 5, Dynasty Warriors 8, PES2013 lead, FFXV, Tales of next, GT6, etc. I think this is their best shot at Vita co-existing with 3DS and also has the added benefit of fending off Wii U until PS4 is ready.
 

beril

Member
Seeing lots of posts about Vita's launch software not being great as some kind of excuse.

If there is a person in the world that thinks 3DS's launch line-up was better, I laugh in your general direction.

From a sales perspective it was a lot better, at least in theory. It had Layton and Nintendogs; two million selling franchises. Though one is in decline and the other completely failed.
 
SCEJ is a fucking joke, to be honest. I don't want to undersell Polyphony and Japan Studio, because they're two excellent studios, but they're only two studios. They can only do so much, and SCEJ hasn't been aggressive enough in pursuing other talent. Why didn't they go after, say, Platinum Games like SCEA/SCEE went after companies like Media Molecule? And why'd they leave From Software in the dust?

Because they prefer to give Level 5 money and let them produce WKC. Who knows why.
But really, Platinum and From produce pretty niche software. Barely selling 1 million copies worldwide and most of that outside of Japan. I don't think any first party really needs them in their portfolio.
 

mclem

Member
What makes you think that the majority of gamers in the real world, especially for franchises which sell millions, even have silly prejudices for or against "Nintendo" or "Sony" systems? I'm pretty sure they don't. The question would be whether they own a certain system in the first place, and also whether they like what the game offers in terms of controls and in graphics.

I'm inclined to agree, but one franchise gives me pause: Tales. It does seem that there is a clear slant in favour of Sony systems for those titles, although in many cases there's no inherent inferiority of the iterations which come out on other manufacturer's systems.
 

Galactic Fork

A little fluff between the ears never did any harm...
A best of with a MH4 demo is pretty much a sure thing, I'd say.

I'm not so sure about that. With demos available on the eShop, and the fact that the MH3G had its demo on the eShop, it'd be more likely MH4 demo will be there too. I suppose they could put the demo on both a 'best' card and online, but with the online one being free, seems it'd be less of a selling point to put it on the card.
 
Because they prefer to give Level 5 money and let them produce WKC. Who knows why.
But really, Platinum and From produce pretty niche software. Barely selling 1 million copies worldwide and most of that outside of Japan. I don't think any first party really needs them in their portfolio.

Dark Souls shipped 1.5 million with Namco publishing the game. Namco. I'm sure if Sony had used even a fraction of their first party muscle on that game, it could've done equal or better, even if it were ps3 exclusive.

Hell, if Sony had actually bothered with Demon's Souls, it probably would've broken a million, and Dark Souls would've had the potential to do even better.
 

Erethian

Member
I'm inclined to agree, but one franchise gives me pause: Tales. It does seem that there is a clear slant in favour of Sony systems for those titles, although in many cases there's no inherent inferiority of the iterations which come out on other manufacturer's systems.

The Wii didn't have the audience for Tales, and I'm not talking about Sony fans. And so far as handhelds go, I think the notion that it's a franchise more tailored to a console audience makes sense. Where they can go all in with the voice work, animated sequences, and whatnot.

Even so far as handhelds go the PSP was able to provide that experience better than the DS.
 

DCharlie

And even i am moderately surprised
Basically, the Vita has early launch games that aren't system sellers and has the largest price tag, up against the holiday juggernaut of Nintendo and a cheaper, Monster Hunter playing 3DS which also has a pretty decent library of games

mentioned this elsewhere but here's the simple equation -

The lowest cost you can get into a Vita for , with one game is (using RRP) :

Wifi model : 24800 yen
+
4 GB card : 2200 yen
+
Dark Quest : 2800 yen

= 29,800 yen

ALTERNATIVELY, you can get the following :

3DS : 15,000 yen
+
Mario Land : 4,800 yen
+
Mario Kart 7 : 4,800 yen
+
Monster Hunter Tri G : 5,800 yen

= 30,400 yen


Just let that sink in a bit....
 

mclem

Member
The price is fine for the hardware they offer, it basically obliterates the iPhone 4S in most departments and we all know how much cost an iPhone 4S.

I agree completely... but that's an irrelevant metric.

The relevant question is whether the price is right for the game library they offer; current and future. And it appears that it is not.
 

jeremy1456

Junior Member
mentioned this elsewhere but here's the simple equation -

The lowest cost you can get into a Vita for , with one game is (using RRP) :

Wifi model : 24800 yen
+
4 GB card : 2200 yen
+
Dark Quest : 2800 yen

= 29,800 yen

ALTERNATIVELY, you can get the following :

3DS : 15,000 yen
+
Mario Land : 4,800 yen
+
Mario Kart 7 : 4,800 yen
+
Monster Hunter Tri G : 5,800 yen

= 30,400 yen


Just let that sink in a bit....

Don't forget the Dead Rising poster, and the ham sandwhich.
 

Segnit

Banned
Speaking internationally, the worst case scenario for Sony is this: They have a system built for Japan (i.e. the Japanese like "hardcore," dedicated gaming portables) but software built for the US (ports of PS3/360 games like CoD), and it tanks in both places because the Japanese don't want the software and the dudebros don't want the hardware (dudebros are literally the last demographic I see being willing to give up their big screen TVs).

Best case scenario: Japanese software picks up, and the PSV does what the PSP did in Japan; the US software library becomes highly varied -- not just the number of titles, but also the type of titles, encompassing Android games like Angry birds in the free-5 dollar range, PSN titles in the 5-15 dollar range, cheap-o PSV titles in the 20-30 range, and "big blockbuster" titles in the 35-50 dollar range. This enormous variability manages to attract gamers from a wide variety of interests even if it doesn't dominate and control any of those ecosystems independently.

All of this is vague hand waving, though. I am very much a "let's wait and see what happens" type of person. Consider the phases/cycles of doom and then victory and then despair we've already had:

1) When 3DS was announced, its initial third party support seemed so overwhelming that everyone thought it was a sure fire hit.
2) By the time it launched, due to pricing and battery concerns along with several third party misfires, this opinion had completely changed, and suddenly the 3DS seemed doomed.
3) Vita was announced. With the 3DS weakening, Vita's chances seemed quite good.
4) 3DS price cut and game announcements. Suddenly the 3DS was no longer doomed.
5) Vita launches. Now Vita is doomed.

We've gone back and forth so many times, now, and this is before including any discussion about iOS or Android. But I want to point out that this sort of volatility of opinion should be expected, because the handheld gaming industry is undergoing enormous change and it's especially difficult to see in to the future when fortunes are changing so rapidly. And for precisely that same reason, I don't think it's prudent to be alarmist in regards to the PSV's long term successes.

I feel comfortable saying the next 4-6 months are going to be rough for the system. Beyond that, I'll wait and see. For now, again, all I feel I can offer is vague hand waving.

To which:

I don't disagree that it's too early to be making sweeping predictions, like, say, that Sony will be forced to kill the platform within 18-24 months of launch and will exit the dedicated handheld business thereafter. But there's far more reason to be pessimistic about Vita's commercial viability - namely, the near-complete lack of likely system-sellers on the horizon, even after multiple press events held while 3DS' position strengthened - than there ever was about 3DS. Most of the "3DS doomed*" talk was a reactionary response to poor sales figures with little in the way of logic to back it up, other than some software delays and a few high-profile game cancellations (the latter of which were dubiously linked to 3DS' early sales but which could entirely or primarily be attributed to other factors).

And I agree with father_brain here and disagree with Opiate. The fact that opinion can quickly swing around doesn't account for the fact that 3DS was expected to do well prior to launch and that it is doing well at the moment. The same cannot be said for the PS Vita. Except for diehard PSV fans, most commentators and analysts were saying that the Vita is stuck between a rock and a hard place. I went through a lot of the details for why I think so in this post.


Less than 8 million consoles sold in 5 years would be a colossal failure on the part of the Vita.
Exactly. Even with over 16 millions units sold and plenty of early enthusiasm, the PSP did not get an A list of games. Therefore we can't expect for Vita coming from the back of a poor launch to end up with a matching 16 million units sold after 5 years and be any better off. Yes there are many variables here but I'm sticking to the most obvious scenario.

Fucking LOL. I don't know if it's for the same motives but that was my reaction too.

Yeah. 3rded. My eyes are bleeding too but I had to gauge the reactions.
 

P90

Member
I agree completely... but that's an irrelevant metric.

The relevant question is whether the price is right for the game library they offer; current and future. And it appears that it is not.

The relevant question is whether the system is priced right for the masses. Obviously, the Vita, like the 3DS at launch, is not.
 
Dark Souls shipped 1.5 million with Namco publishing the game. Namco. I'm sure if Sony had used even a fraction of their first party muscle on that game, it could've done equal or better, even if it were ps3 exclusive.

Hell, if Sony had actually bothered with Demon's Souls, it probably would've broken a million, and Dark Souls would've had the potential to do even better.

I doubt it. The Souls games are simply games with a rather limited appeal and Bamco marketed Dark Souls pretty well from what I can tell. Putting more money into the marketing would have very diminishing returns.
 

Laguna

Banned
Do we have a sales list with Sony developed PSP games? Obviously Minna no Golf P1 was their most successful release but it would be interesting to know how their other titles performed.
 
3DS version should easily outsell the Vita one.



The Time Travelers is PSP/3DS/Vita

Level-5 seems desperate to want to make that work.

PSP too, :|
I hope they lose a lot of money on that, its good for the fans but come on man choose your base! Thats why Ni no Kuni is struggling on PS3
 

Road

Member
This year, so far, has 3 million sellers -- Famitsu:

[3DS] Mario Kart 7 (Nintendo) {2011-12-01} - 1,082,391 / 1,082,391
[3DS] Super Mario 3D Land (Nintendo) {2011-11-03} - 1,042,511 / 1,042,511
[PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom 3 (Capcom) {2010-12-01} - 1,020,986 / 4,501,975

MH3G did it not make it for Famitsu. (There still a chance it'll cross 1 million in 2011 for Media-Create.)

Anyway, we're led back again to comparing with 2005, the last time there were so few and the no. 1 sold so low:

Famitsu 2005:
[NDS] Animal Crossing: Wild World (Nintendo) {2005-11-23} - 1,169,757 / 1,169,757
[PS2] Gran Turismo 4 (SCE) {2004-12-28} - 1,066,749 / 1,066,749
[NDS] Brain Training (Nintendo) {2005-05-19} - 1,011,341 / 1,011,341
 

Takao

Banned
Not Sony developed, but we do have Sony published.

I want to say SCE published more than that on PSP, but some must've not charted. I did a localization wall of shame a while back and I swear Sony published a lot of anime licensed games.

I'd rather get the Vita version, because it looks like a game I'd want in widescreen format. (Also the comparison screens were no contest.)

Well it's a sequel to a DS exclusive, and the Vita will have a significantly smaller userbase than the 3DS.
 
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