bigtroyjon
Member
6 weeks ago in the MC thread about Mario's 2nd week sales
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Media Create Sales: Week 51, 2011 (Dec 19 - Dec 25)
- Thread starter Road
- Start date
6 weeks ago in the MC thread about Mario's 2nd week sales
Regulus Tera
Romanes Eunt Domus
It should have stayed 2D. Augh.Went and dug up the comparisons.
3DS
PSV
Probably Dudebros of War, and Dudebros In Time.
I don't see any strong, exclusive announcements for the Vita in the foreseeable future really. If there was anything, it is most likely going to piggyback off the PS3. The question is, if a game is already available on the PS3, how many people are:
- Going to buy both the PS3 and Vita version
- Not buy the PS3 version but buy the Vita version
The answer to the above questions will determine how well a game that piggybacks off PS3 will sell. To be honest though, I don't see it selling great numbers in either scenario.
The reason for no Vita exclusive games is really the double-edge sword of having beautiful HD graphics on a handheld - high development cost. No one is going to bet their money and make a high budget game exclusive on the Vita, simply because it's too much of a gamble and there's no way they can sell enough copies to make money off such a small userbase for the handheld.
So, if developers want to develop a game for handheld
and they need buttons to make a game that real man plays
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
Forget that, who thought Wii would outsell Vita it's 2nd week?!
AdventureRacing
Member
So what happened with that story about having to ship 700K vitas to Japan to meet the huge demand?
mugurumakensei
Member
Clearly, investors wanted to devalue nintendo stock so they could purchase more of it.
AceBandage
Banned
Oh my, Jonny.
Heh, the GC actually outsold PSP back in December 2004 during one week.
Difference is, PSP was actually in demand and sold out back then.
SlipperySlope
Banned
Oh fuck. I just bust out laughing. The bombs! They be dropping!
Just think about it like this. As far as Japan's "alive" consoles go, it's in last place. Last place! In its second week! It got outsold by the 3DS, PSP, PS3, AND the WII. A disaster. 5th fucking place.
DCharlie
And even i am moderately surprised
the whole logic here is basically taking these two weeks sales and extrapolating it out to mean that , yes, the VITA is already dead and sales of the unit are going to drop dead and stop - and the 3DS with 10 months start is going to just keep exploding and taking off.
There's too much knee jerk reaction going on - we JUST went through this whole cycle with the 3DS !
We have NO IDEA what is coming in the next year - i'm not saying it's going to happen but for all we know Capcom could turn round and show MH4th for Vita and it be a massive upgrade on the series, Sony might cut the price, then what? Again, not saying this is going to happen but the whole 2 weeks sales = bomba logic, everyone off to 3ds! is laughably short sighted.
In one sense I agree with you that it is too early. In another sense, unlike the 3DS, there were very compelling reasons to predict this start from the very beginning- the fundamentals just do not look good, period.
I imagined Dahlia Hawthorne saying this. It fit amazingly well.
DCharlie
And even i am moderately surprised
agreed - and i'm not saying that the Vita is going to have an easy time of this, far from it. Dealing with absolutes - 3DS -has- got a strong line up -now- , it's got sales on the board, it's at least 50% cheaper, and it IS getting MH4.
However, i'm sure a whole load of titles are already well into development on the PSV and , as i say, there's possibly stuff that -could- game change (MH ending up on Vita at some point certainly isn't out of the realms of possibility, Gran Turismo might unexpectedly show up (pre-space year 2051) , etc etc)
there's definitely an amusing angle to it, but i don't understand why any gamer (not saying you, but certainly seen the sentiment on GAF) would want to see a powerful handheld just out and out fail. Somewhat baffling to me.
If I may briefly touch on another topic, the various Wii software performance the last 2-3 weeks has really brought home to me how badly Nintendo and 3rd parties truly fucked up the platform. It was like all parties involved gave up on the poor little guy after 2009.
Ok carry on.
Ok carry on.
The 3DS comparison doesn't work very well:
- Spring is always slower than December
- Tohoku Earthquake had an effect on sales
- 3DS had a fantastic second week
- 3DS actually sold through its initial launch shipment immediately
And so forth.
We'll have to see how SCE responds early next year, if they do. One thing the 3DS proved that is directly applicable to Vita is that waiting around hoping things improve without actually taking any initiative is a plan destined for failure.
AceBandage
Banned
2010 was a great year for Nintendo software on the Wii.
The problem as I see it is outside of price, which I think we all agree is something Sony will struggle to change anytime soon, it is not easy to all of a sudden start to develop hardware pushing software- those decisions were made months, if not years ago. Sony is kind of stuck for the time being. Now, maybe it can recover like the PS3 did..though Vita has much more formidable competition than PS3 ended up having.
In Japan, I disagree (at least if you are talking purely from a sales perspective).
DCharlie
And even i am moderately surprised
Spring is slower on a software front because there's usually little going on
But the other thing that people forget is that BONUS payments hit the bank in Feb
well , like you say , you'd have to assume that a lot of discussions about Vita games was probably made a good year ago or so. Some discussions before the 3DS had launch, and maybe some made whilst the 3DS looked to be floundering - so we simply don't have any idea what is coming. What i think we will see in the new year is that Sony might start seeing if they can get third parties to show their Vita hand. I expect a "relaunch/reintroduction" around March.
Dash Kappei
Not actually that important
Lol, here we go again, moving the goalpost with this crap.
Half of PS3's LTD in 10 months, your tears taste good my
Next up: big third parties games don't count, they'd sell anyway
sales age thrives on extremes, positive or negative.
AceBandage
Banned
They shipped 500K.
They have not sold 500K.
I'd say that they wanted to at least sell 500K.
It took a redesign and price cut to finally bring the PS3 out of its 3-year slump, as well as FFXIII.
What can Vita hope for aside from a price drop and software that cannot be done on the 3Ds? A small unit? I can't think of anything aside from that lucky hit that happens every gen, but that is far more likely to happen on 3DS than Vita at this rate.
Cosmonaut X
Member
Mm - it will be interesting to see how Sony go from here. Assuming that Vita will follow the pre-pricecut 3DS pattern and stumble along at low-to-middling weekly sales, are Sony prepared to let that carry on or will they act as quickly as Nintendo did? I could see them waiting until they get a picture of the Western response to the system and its price before making a decision, but would that be leaving things too late to make a course change if it seems necessary?
Right. And PS3 still had an incredible advantage in 3rd party software..which does not seem like will be the case with the 3DS.
True but I mean more like for the rest of the year like how we know Nintendo intends/hopes to ship 16 million 3ds units WW by the end of the financial year or something (can't remember if that's right).
Exactly right, especially in a market where new competitions are taking bites of it by the second. At a price point that is no where near an impulse buy and with no compelling software on the horizon, Sony needs to act and act quickly.
Well, if we concede that right now 3DS is going to get more 3rd party support+have the benefit of Nintendo's first party studios which has more of a history of those types of games, isn't it much more likely?
Cosmonaut X
Member
I'd say that it's more likely for that unexpected hit to happen on a platform that is going to be attracting a lot of dev attention thanks to its popularity and its position in the marketplace - more games=more chances for breakout hit, surely?
I know it's not that bad, but it's hard not to compare it to the 3DS launch, even though the conditions are really different. I just expected it to do a lot better in its second week, being outsold by every other platform including its predecessor is pretty shocking for me.
Well I think people are a bit pessimistic because the 3DS already had plenty of "big" announcements well before launch (namely KH3D and RE:R, plus a few more minor titles like Love Plus) and we already knew MK7 and Mario were coming. With the Vita we have almost no announcements from the big japanese companies, outside of PS3/Vita multiplat titles.
It's just a bit strange, if anything, the 3DS has shown that big announcements can bring back confidence in a platform (the 3DS saw a decent improvement in sales after the Fall Conference). If there are big titles coming, why not start drumming up hype for them?
Now nothing is set in stone obviously, but I think it's understandable why people feel pessimistic about Vita's future.
I think he means that hardware sales are going to ultimately decide where licensees put their resources. Given that scenario (and if things keep up as they are) it's reasonable to assume the "next big thing" is more likely to appear on the 3DS. Easier to strike gold when there are more people digging, so to speak.
Father_Brain
Banned
I might as well just tweak what I said in last week's thread on this point:
Vyse The Legend
Member
From DCharlie(?) saying Monster Hunter 3G would barely sell 500k to Jonnyram grossly underestimating Super Mario 3D Land's very, very long legs, 'tis the season for crow eating.
That said, I suspect there will be plenty of people in here eating crow once the Vita bounces back. Eight months ago, we were all saying these same things about the 3DS. Look how that turned out.
A $50 price cut and some compelling software will turn things around.
DCharlie
And even i am moderately surprised
800k man!
(which would still be good numbers, i just didn't see people 'flocking' to 3DS for 3G - they still haven't , i just got the figures completely ass wrong)i was wrong, but it's starting to limp!
Only 245 copies next week, limping to 900k
compelling software should do enough - makes you wonder whether Nintendo over shot the price cut given the strength of the three xmas titles.
It's my perspective and it's not meant to provoke any anger in anyone - how is this repeat trolling?
Unlike you, at least I've made a few predictions that turned out right.
But winning platforms have had the advantage in getting bigger and more numerous unforeseen smash hits. That's why I would bet on the 3DS, but it's not impossible for Vita either. It needs to come from SCE so Nintendo never has access to it.
Fantastical
Death Prophet
They needed a guarantee, I think. They wanted to destroy any chance of failure. I think the price cut was more to save it outside of Japan anyways.
AdventureRacing
Member
This line just keeps getting trotted out. The situations are nothing alike besides the fact that they both started a little slower than expected. Just because people were overly negative about one console doesn't mean that every single console that comes slow out of the gate will just turn everything around.
That would be one ballsy move. That would make them bleed a lot of money yet again and that's with the PS4 around the corner. Sonys financials are going to look very bad if it comes to that.
Compelling software doesn't come from nowhere. With nintendo at this point we already knew of quite a few big games coming to the 3DS (and nintendo always has their own franchises to rely on). As of right now there really isn't anything big (besides an FF remake i guess) that could turn things around.
Who knows though maybe there are a few big game announcements coming up.
I don't think the vita is dead but sony have a lot of work to do if they want it to sell well.
jeremy1456
Junior Member
Again, any logical person knew the 3DS would bounce back because it had some absolutely huge games (Mario Kart 7, Mario 3D Land, Animal Crossing) coming out for it. People only remember the irrational naysayers who forgot that Mario Kart DS did like 3 million.
Vita has nothing even remotely as big. The big argument has basically been 'well we don't know what will take off this gen' but it's being used as so called evidence that the Vita will bounce back. Nothing suggests it will.
AceBandage
Banned
It's my perspective and it's not meant to provoke any anger in anyone - how is this repeat trolling?
Unlike you, at least I've made a few predictions that turned out right.
But winning platforms have had the advantage in getting bigger and more numerous unforeseen smash hits. That's why I would bet on the 3DS, but it's not impossible for Vita either. It needs to come from SCE so Nintendo never has access to it.
Dem's fighten words!
800k man!
i was wrong, but it's starting to limp!
Only 245 copies next week, limping to 900k
In all fairness, I don't think your logic was faulty. The number that you came up with based on that logic was the problem.
Cosmonaut X
Member
That's an interesting question, but one that it's unlikely we'll be able to answer.
Perhaps they could have gotten away with a smaller price cut, but if that hadn't been the case and they'd been pushed into a position where a second price cut was necessary it could have been hugely damaging. Better to overshoot and accept the loss to get the system straight to a more mass-market price and quickly restore confidence in the system's fortunes (for developers, as well as investors).
Magicpaint
Member
800k man!
i was wrong, but it's starting to limp!
Only 245 copies next week, limping to 900k
'flocking to the 3DS' is a very vague term. I don't think anyone saw fault in your logic: it's impossible for MH3G to draw a crowd of MHP3rd proportions. The reasonable argument has always largely been that MH3G would be a great stepping stone to achieving that transition.
AceBandage
Banned
The massive price cut was pretty much 100% just to propel the system for the holidays.
They needed third parties to see the system doing amazingly so that they could start getting on board right away.
It was a bold move, but well worth it, I'd say.
