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[Mrbob]

Wow, looking at the top fifty it looks like the big 3 are eating into almost all 3DS software sales. Good luck to any other game not named Mario Kart 7, Mario 3d Land, or Monster Hunter trying to sell.

 

[BurntPork]

I know this has probably been discussed to hell and back, but it's absolutely astonishing to see three generations of Mario Kart in one chart. Completely unprecedented.

Only Nintendo. I can't believe that Pokemon BW are still there, despite the fact that Pokemon's first week numbers should make it seem front-loaded. It's like Nintendo has some magic legs formula.

 

[electroplankton]

It worked for the PS2

debatable.
Tekken Tag could be seen as a pretty big game since coming from a franchise selling over 1 million units with the last iteration. And also Ridge Racer was pretty big back then

 

[Takao]

I hate to say i told you so but i told you so. Vita is a dead system walking, smartphones and tablets gaming are enough for most people that Vita is targeting. Sony did not do Vita any favor by its lackadaisical design and its OS sounds 3 years old.

Sure you can play Uncharted ($40) on Vita but how many will care enough for studios to produce more Uncharteds? Something like Angry Birds play better on a large screen iPad! Take that button whores! Vita is so going to bomb in the West launching head on against ipad3...

You should change your avatar impostor Hirai.

 

[Anth0ny]

Only Nintendo. I can't believe that Pokemon BW are still there, despite the fact that Pokemon's first week numbers should make it seem front-loaded. It's like Nintendo has some magic legs formula.

It's almost like they make good, timeless games or something.

Weird.

 

[walking fiend]

Only Nintendo. I can't believe that Pokemon BW are still there, despite the fact that Pokemon's first week numbers should make it seem front-loaded. It's like Nintendo has some magic legs formula.

I am sure part of it has to do with them not sending the buzz to die by dropping the price. A lot of their games continue to sell at near full price for almost all of their life.

 

[Jokeropia]

(lol) and manueldelalas did it again.
Good job, man. It was a good laugh.
Especially the "VITA is a boring handheld" and "resistive touchscreen is MUCH, MUCH better for games than capacitive". You're doing a good job for months now.

Resistive touchscreen with a stylus offers superior accuracy compared to a capacitive one. There are capacitive styluses, but they're relatively expensive and have much wider tips anyway.

Gotta say I prefer it when sony and ms are the ones doing well in this industry, if for no other reason than for the fact that their fanboys are sane compared to...them

I think this post just used up GAFs entire irony quotient for 2012.

* SM3DL enters, knocking Super Mario Advance 2 (GBA; 0.92m) out and Galaxy 2 down a place.
* It took 8 weeks for SM3DL to reach 1 million sold units.
* It appears that both SM3DL and Mario Kart 7 reached 1 million units on roughly the same day.
* This is the first time all of the Mario titles in the chart have been above 1 million!
* SM3DL will take SMG (and maybe SM64DS) next week.
* Feels good man

Nice!

 

[TheNatural]

I hate to say i told you so but i told you so. Vita is a dead system walking, smartphones and tablets gaming are enough for most people that Vita is targeting. Sony did not do Vita any favor by its lackadaisical design and its OS sounds 3 years old.

Sure you can play Uncharted ($40) on Vita but how many will care enough for studios to produce more Uncharteds? Something like Angry Birds play better on a large screen iPad! Take that button whores! Vita is so going to bomb in the West launching head on against ipad3...

It's going to be pretty damn interesting (and probably funny) at what will probably happen with the Vita's launch window in the US.

 

[Alrus]

Yay Mario charts! I'm gonna enjoy seeing SM3DL climb it up I bet it'll finish around SMAS.

I know this has probably been discussed to hell and back, but it's absolutely astonishing to see three generations of Mario Kart in one chart. Completely unprecedented.

I really don't understand how Mario Kart DS keeps selling...

 

[Kenka]

...

The drop rates for the Vita titles aren't bad given how much the userbase expanded this week. But that's okay, more negative Vita posts in this thread the better.

You can't POSSIBLY be serious. The excuse for software to take a nosedive.... is that its hardware is doing bad.

Jesus. Mary. Muhammad. Lexington.

Wow, looking at the top fifty it looks like the big 3 are eating into almost all 3DS software sales. Good luck to any other game not named Mario Kart 7, Mario 3d Land, or Monster Hunter trying to sell.

It is quite true that these guys are bullying the rest of the schoolyard. Man, they do it well. But the future releases will add some diversity at the top of the charts-

 

[Gambit]

Only Nintendo. I can't believe that Pokemon BW are still there, despite the fact that Pokemon's first week numbers should make it seem front-loaded. It's like Nintendo has some magic legs formula.

I think their magic leg formula is releasing their mircale sellers only once per generation: Mario Kart, 2D Mario, etc. (or at least with a lot of time in-between like Pokemon)

A second Mario Kart for Wii would have probably been an excellent seller, but it might just have kept the original from selling quite so much.

 

[Plinko]

...

The drop rates for the Vita titles aren't bad given how much the userbase expanded this week. But that's okay, more negative Vita posts in this thread the better.

Please elaborate your meaning here because as I read this, it doesn't make much sense.

 

[electroplankton]

Wow, looking at the top fifty it looks like the big 3 are eating into almost all 3DS software sales. Good luck to any other game not named Mario Kart 7, Mario 3d Land, or Monster Hunter trying to sell.

nintendogs+cats is still selling well (roughly 40k this week, which is probably one of its best weeks so far, if not the second best one after the launch week), and Inazuma Eleven Go hold pretty nicely.

 

[charlequin]

i was actually going to reply with this because , yup, that's almost certainly true. But of the two (3DS or Vita) options they aren't going to bother with they probably aren't going to bother with the 3DS version the most right? ( )

Bros are going to 100% not bother with either version. The question is solely then about what knock-on group of peripheral customers will buy the most handheld copies of CoD. Either way it's not going to be a huge number.

I couldn't for the life if me understand what Sony's strategy was for the Vita, and why they thought it would sell.

People on GAF were identifying the challenges of the next handheld generation way back in 2009, before either system's replacement was seriously hinted at. Sony was always stuck trying to maneuver between three challenge points:

• It was literally impossible for them to make an all-purpose general-market device that could compete with the iPhone.
• Any attempt to move downmarket would be limited both by the existence of the PSP and by the reality that Nintendo had an enormous, guaranteed downmarket waiting for them thanks to their stable of semi-casual IPs (Mario etc.)
• Any attempt to move upmarket would have to confront the reality that in the West, upmarket consumers strongly prefer home systems connected to their TVs while in Japan, no one is actually developing HD console-level games or interested in investing in the budgets they require.

The first challenger (the iPhone) was the one they obviously had the least ammunition against, so they wisely steered away from trying to directly compete on that turf (and didn't listen to the legions of foolish fan types yelling LALALA PS PHONE LALALA, thank goodness.) Moving downmarket was probably the most potentially profitable (especially since Nintendo's strategy this gen is moving upmarket) but it's also completely outside of Sony's comfort zone. That leaves an upmarket system, or, essentially, "let's just try what we did with PSP again."

Now, in terms of execution, they did a hell of a lot more things right this time than they did with either PSP or PS3. But ultimately software is more important than all other factors combined in selling a gaming system, and I don't think Sony has a meaningful strategy for dealing with that at all. Both PSP and PS3 had significant software problems but were rescued mostly by external factors: PSP by the "PlayStation aura" early on and by the revitalization that MH started later, PS3 by becoming the default console due to two hideously unpalatable alternatives. Vita can't benefit from that now-non-existent aura and they can't rely on becoming the software winner-by-default because publishers have already made it clear they're grooming 3DS for that position.

(This is why when I've talked about it, probably the best strategy I could come up with would be to significantly reduce licensing fees for smaller games and just go balls-out on making Vita the niche platform king -- enough density of different niche title releases would at least give them something to build on and guarantee them an ongoing flow of software.)

Well they learned to use off-the-shelf components so dropping the price will be a little easier for them.

That's... good.

I don't think people are giving them enough credit for this. (Or for related hardware-engineering issues, like developer-friendly architecture.) Sony should be in position to drop the price significantly within the first year, which is huge. For all my problems with their software strategy, I think PSV is miles and miles ahead of Sony's previous efforts at gaming hardware.

 

[Takao]

You can't POSSIBLY be serious. The excuse for software to take a nosedive.... is that its hardware is doing bad.

Jesus. Mary. Muhammad. Lexington.

Remember the post where I said this thread got really stupid? Yeah, this is an example of one of those.

A small userbase with no must haves having a variety of titles in the Top 50 isn't bad. Their placement isn't all that good (it is the holiday sales period where games on platforms with much larger install bases will have holiday boosts), but the fact that it's more than just Minna No Golf, and Uncharted isn't bad. Are the software sales great? No. Are they terrible? Given the userbase, and software availability, it isn't.

 

[beril]

Wow, looking at the top fifty it looks like the big 3 are eating into almost all 3DS software sales. Good luck to any other game not named Mario Kart 7, Mario 3d Land, or Monster Hunter trying to sell.

Not really. Of course three of the biggest franchises launching nearly at the same time will have an effect on other games, but there's not that many other 3DS titles I would have expected to see in the top 50 regardless. I guess Rocket Slime underperformed a bit and there's OoT3D which fell out of the charts a while ago but it still had a good run.

 

[electroplankton]

Remember the post where I said this thread got really stupid? Yeah, this is an example of one of those.

A small userbase with no must haves having a variety of titles in the Top 50 isn't bad. Their placement isn't all that good (it is the holiday sales period where games on platforms with much larger install bases will have holiday boosts), but the fact that it's more than just Minna No Golf, and Uncharted isn't bad.

Exactly, the problem is not the software which is selling bad -I mean, it's doing what it can do- but the hardware which dropped like a rock. Software follows this.

 

[test_account]

You're right, most will understand it differently. But I wont easily be held hostage to what others think or believe. Am I enjoying being right? Yes. Would I want PSV to be a success and increase the heat on Nintendo? Yes. Is it fun to watch blind fanboy loyalty and hilarious expectations be shattered? I think anyone who says "No" is liar.

I dont think it has much to do with being held hostage, because i'd say that it was very easy to misunderstand what you said. I think it is fair enough that people called you out on it and asked questions about it.

Depends. There is certainly a lot of room for debate about which risks were worth taking and which were not. And you know something? Maybe Sony had a corporate contingency plan that wouldn't make sense from a gamers standpoint. Who knows, maybe PSV is their exit strategy from dedicated portable gaming device, while at the same time it's their entry into the wider portable space - with licensed and outsourced hardware while leveraging the IP into future Sony portable electronics.

The bright side to such a plan would be that PSV would be their long term exit strategy and not a short term one; as the platform and the games could still be relevant 7 years down the line.

In my eyes there really has to be a good reason why Sony appears to have opted for a yet another half hearted, brute force (oxymoron) strategy with the PSV. Perhaps a reason that would not immediately make sense to gamers.

Sure, it can be debated which risks that are worth taking. But we wont know the true answer to any of this before someone actually tries it. So it is good that companies are willing to take risks i'd say, even if it doesnt always make much "sense"

Personally i think that the Vita strategy is pretty straight forward. Sony created a device with a lot of control methods, hoping that the Vita would have something for everyone, from simple touch games to more "advanced" game with dual analog. It still remains to see how good this strategy works for Sony in the long run though.

Was it reasonable to think that Wii was going to be big? Yes. A BIG yes. The Wii had most profound and extraordinary reception at E3 2006. The longest lines were not for the PS3.

As for Vita's standout features... I think PSV is the most complete and glorious handheld ever created (memory card issues aside). It looks gorgeous, it's got a big OLED screen, and it has the most varied input methods of any handheld. But all that is besides the point if you can't give the platform the breathing room and the software backing that it needs to survive while relegating the portability aspect to last place.

Sony has opted for a brute force strategy again. PS3.

Sure, but i was thinking more about big as in 70 million+ big and being sold for many months in a row I dont think that many people saw that coming.

I was also thinking about if it was reasonable from Nintendo themself to expect that the Wii would be so popular. Surely they hoped for it of course, but i mean, it was still a risk and a gamle for Nintendo and i think they also saw it like this, that the Wii wasnt a 100% sure success. Nintendo made something quite out of the ordinary, and they couldnt know for sure how succesful it would be, or how well it would be received. Sometimes it is worth it to take risks like this, other time it isnt. Sony took a big risk with the PS3 at $599, and it didnt turn out as good as they hoped for. I also think that the DS was also some sort of gamble for Nintendo since they were calling it "thrid pillar".

Sony has said that they wont repeat the same mistake with the PS Vita regarding software. With the PSP, Sony started to focus more on the PS3 instead. But with the Vita, we have seen much 1st party support so far.

If the Vita will follow the same hard times as the PS3 initially did, who knows. It is a possibility for it, but it is however too early to say much about it in certainty.

 

[TheNatural]

Bros are going to 100% not bother with either version. The question is solely then about what knock-on group of peripheral customers will buy the most handheld copies of CoD. Either way it's not going to be a huge number.



People on GAF were identifying the challenges of the next handheld generation way back in 2009, before either system's replacement was seriously hinted at. Sony was always stuck trying to maneuver between three challenge points:

• It was literally impossible for them to make an all-purpose general-market device that could compete with the iPhone.
• Any attempt to move downmarket would be limited both by the existence of the PSP and by the reality that Nintendo had an enormous, guaranteed downmarket waiting for them thanks to their stable of semi-casual IPs (Mario etc.)
• Any attempt to move upmarket would have to confront the reality that in the West, upmarket consumers strongly prefer home systems connected to their TVs while in Japan, no one is actually developing HD console-level games or interested in investing in the budgets they require.

The first challenger (the iPhone) was the one they obviously had the least ammunition against, so they wisely steered away from trying to directly compete on that turf (and didn't listen to the legions of foolish fan types yelling LALALA PS PHONE LALALA, thank goodness.) Moving downmarket was probably the most potentially profitable (especially since Nintendo's strategy this gen is moving upmarket) but it's also completely outside of Sony's comfort zone. That leaves an upmarket system, or, essentially, "let's just try what we did with PSP again."

Now, in terms of execution, they did a hell of a lot more things right this time than they did with either PSP or PS3. But ultimately software is more important than all other factors combined in selling a gaming system, and I don't think Sony has a meaningful strategy for dealing with that at all. Both PSP and PS3 had significant software problems but were rescued mostly by external factors: PSP by the "PlayStation aura" early on and by the revitalization that MH started later, PS3 by becoming the default console due to two hideously unpalatable alternatives. Vita can't benefit from that now-non-existent aura and they can't rely on becoming the software winner-by-default because publishers have already made it clear they're grooming 3DS for that position.

(This is why when I've talked about it, probably the best strategy I could come up with would be to significantly reduce licensing fees for smaller games and just go balls-out on making Vita the niche platform king -- enough density of different niche title releases would at least give them something to build on and guarantee them an ongoing flow of software.)



I don't think people are giving them enough credit for this. (Or for related hardware-engineering issues, like developer-friendly architecture.) Sony should be in position to drop the price significantly within the first year, which is huge. For all my problems with their software strategy, I think PSV is miles and miles ahead of Sony's previous efforts at gaming hardware.

Great post. So basically this has been what it's always been with Sony: wait until Nintendo fucks up, and then hope to capitalize on being the de facto option. That basically sounds like the entire existence of Sony in the videogame market as a whole going back to Nintendo using cartridges with the N64 allowing Sony to live.

 

[thehypocrite]

I think feasability is variable when dealing with an entity the size of Sony, and a bigger loss now pays dividends later on. Not dropping fast and far enough was PS3's downfall and that's something that should be weighing on the minds of everyone at SCE. I understand Vita's already a loss taking venture, and that the price drop was essentially built in day one, but it's still just not good enough. 19800 yen or bust.

And I agree that trying to draw support from 3DS is a losing proposition, that why I think SCE needs to cannibalize PS3. Games like Yakuza 5, Dynasty Warriors 8, Tales of next, Gran Turismo 6, Final Fantasy XV and so on need to be on Vita, either exclusively or in addition to PS3. This is really the only way forward I can see Vita making itself a major platform that can exist alongside 3DS, and if they have to sacrifice PS3 to do it then that's what they should do. If they don't Wii U might come along and do it for them anyway.

I hadn't though about that, They could take this path, start moving development cash out of PS3 move it to PSV and the eventual PS4, schedule to have just 1 flagship title or 2 at best on PS3 and make the financial commitment to creating a library of unique titles on Vita. but this has risk that I don't know if Sony wants to take. They want to be 2nd in worldwide sales (PS3 Vs 360) looking at their current strategy, which is a meaningless battle if you ask me.

 

[charlequin]

Great post. So basically this has been what it's always been with Sony: wait until Nintendo fucks up, and then hope to capitalize on being the de facto option. That basically sounds like the entire existence of Sony in the videogame market as a whole going back to Nintendo using cartridges with the N64 allowing Sony to live.

Well, the PS1 was a real piece of work: understanding that they should switch to CDs was smart, but understanding that by doing so they could give huge price drops to consumers and developers (and thereby make tons of profit on volume) was genius. They won that gen fair and square by putting out the right machine and adopting the right policies. But from PSP onwards there's definitely been a lot of coasting.

 

[test_account]

I don't think people are giving them enough credit for this. (Or for related hardware-engineering issues, like developer-friendly architecture.) Sony should be in position to drop the price significantly within the first year, which is huge. For all my problems with their software strategy, I think PSV is miles and miles ahead of Sony's previous efforts at gaming hardware.

Good post overall Is there any guesstimate on how much Sony can drop the Vita price after, lets say a year or two? Without bleeding much money.

 

[charlequin]

And I agree that trying to draw support from 3DS is a losing proposition, that why I think SCE needs to cannibalize PS3. Games like Yakuza 5, Dynasty Warriors 8, Tales of next, Gran Turismo 6, Final Fantasy XV and so on need to be on Vita, either exclusively or in addition to PS3.

How is this going to help, though? These games didn't really help the PS3. If Sony really has no higher aspirations for the Vita than 8m in five years they should just pack it in now.

Good post overall Is there any guesstimate on how much Sony can drop the Vita price after, lets say a year or two? Without bleeding much money.

My guess is that in two years they could sell the system for $150 easily, but that's based on napkin math and guesstimation from looking at cellphone prices, not any real subject-matter expertise.

 

[Mpl90]

Wow, looking at the top fifty it looks like the big 3 are eating into almost all 3DS software sales. Good luck to any other game not named Mario Kart 7, Mario 3d Land, or Monster Hunter trying to sell.

Not so much this week, since IE Go had a very solid second week, Gundam debuted almost at 100k (good), and Nintendogs was probably at something like 35-40k. And Pokemon Rumble rose a bit.

 

[BurntPork]

Well, the PS1 was a real piece of work: understanding that they should switch to CDs was smart, but understanding that by doing so they could give huge price drops to consumers and developers (and thereby make tons of profit on volume) was genius. They won that gen fair and square by putting out the right machine and adopting the right policies. But from PSP onwards there's definitely been a lot of coasting.

Yep. They did everything right with the PS1, the PS2 carried on from that momentum (and having a DVD player certainly didn't hurt), and then they threw it all away and had no idea how to fix it. Now the whole company is facing management issues...

 

[TheNatural]

Well, the PS1 was a real piece of work: understanding that they should switch to CDs was smart, but understanding that by doing so they could give huge price drops to consumers and developers (and thereby make tons of profit on volume) was genius. They won that gen fair and square by putting out the right machine and adopting the right policies. But from PSP onwards there's definitely been a lot of coasting.

Well I mean that's the point, if Nintendo would have done it, no developers would have jumped. It's not like it was a new idea at the time, several consoles had already done CD's, like the Saturn. Nintendo's iron fist dictator wouldn't allow it though and wanted to try to control the market like with the NES days. Then, it looked like the N64 was still going to crush the Playstation at the start until there were literally NO game releases at all at the start. It made the 3DS launch look like a winter wonderland.

I think Sony has just been exposed for what they've always been: an opportunist with no real fundamental advantage of their own. Their first party franchises have always been weak and pale in comparison to sales nowadays of Halo from Microsoft, and basically several major Nintendo franchises. They don't have the inherent advantage Nintendo usually makes with value with it's system and games, and doesn't have the inherent advantage of being a PC company to make a robust online system like Microsoft has with Live.

Over time, these flaws just continued to get exposed, Vita is probably the topping on the cake to all of it because of being stuck in a three way triangle of hell between the iPhone, 3DS, and homogeneity with consoles.

 

[Father_Brain]

Since Father_Brain seems to be arguing heavily against any optimistic posts re. Vita (and has been as long as I can remember...even before the thing was announced!), I've gotta ask - what is his own prediction for Vita?

The suggestion seems to be that he thinks it's a dead system - since he seems to react to anyone who urges caution on that on any level - but he's dancing around actually coming out and saying that explicitly. So is that actually your prediction, Father_Brain?

IMO, if the currently announced software lineup is any indication - and I think it is - it'll be lucky to sell more than half of PSP's LTD, or to sell enough to build a viable software ecosystem in any region.

But, sure, I could be wrong about that "if", or the size of the potential dudebro audience in the West, or (as one of Opiate's scenarios suggested) the ability of lower-tier games to drive hardware, among other things. Which is why I'm not calling it "dead," as that would be a statement of fact that isn't true yet.

If things haven't turned around on Vita's software/sales fronts by E3 2013 or so (I was going to say the end of next year, but that seemed just a tad too early), it'll be fairly safe to say that there isn't going to be any savior.

Your prediction? It's more optimistic than mine, obviously.

 

[Takao]

Well, the PS1 was a real piece of work: understanding that they should switch to CDs was smart, but understanding that by doing so they could give huge price drops to consumers and developers (and thereby make tons of profit on volume) was genius. They won that gen fair and square by putting out the right machine and adopting the right policies. But from PSP onwards there's definitely been a lot of coasting.

I feel Vita's more on the side of the PlayStation rather than the PSP and PS3. The hardware is designed so that manufacturing costs will drop like a rock, their devkits are cheap, they likely are accepting less royalties than Nintendo (which explains the abundance of niche publishers on Vita), and seem to have a more viable DD-avenue than the competition. The problems obviously arise from the fact that unlike the PS1 compared to the N64, the cost of making the actual games seem to negate the rest of what Sony's doing.

I also do want to say that even as a pretty clear Sony fanboy, I don't think Sony won with the PS1 all on the back of great hardware. Somewhere someone opened a check book.

Their first party franchises have always been weak and pale in comparison to sales nowadays of Halo from Microsoft, and basically several major Nintendo franchises.

Gran Turismo is a bigger franchise than Halo. In fact, I'm pretty sure someone broke it down and found out that the lowest selling (non-PSP) GT actually performed better than the highest selling Halo. Though that was prior to GT5, which IMO is on its way to around a 10 million LTD world wide.

 

[Phoenician_Viking]

Well I mean that's the point, if Nintendo would have done it, no developers would have jumped. It's not like it was a new idea at the time, several consoles had already done CD's, like the Saturn. Nintendo's iron fist dictator wouldn't allow it though and wanted to try to control the market like with the NES days. Then, it looked like the N64 was still going to crush the Playstation at the start until there were literally NO game releases at all at the start. It made the 3DS launch look like a winter wonderland.

I think Sony has just been exposed for what they've always been: an opportunist with no real fundamental advantage of their own. Their first party franchises have always been weak and pale in comparison to sales nowadays of Halo from Microsoft, and basically several major Nintendo franchises. They don't have the inherent advantage Nintendo usually makes with value with it's system and games, and doesn't have the inherent advantage of being a PC company to make a robust online system like Microsoft has with Live.

Over time, these flaws just continued to get exposed, Vita is probably the topping on the cake to all of it because of being stuck in a three way triangle of hell between the iPhone, 3DS, and homogeneity with consoles.

Gran Turismo does not count apparently. God of war and Uncharted are mid tear sellers.

My guess is that in two years they could sell the system for $150 easily, but that's based on napkin math and guesstimation from looking at cellphone prices, not any real subject-matter expertise.

Honestly i think Sony has been greedy by shipping all these 3G units. Sony apparently is all about profit margin instead of market share, at least for now.

 

[TheNatural]

I feel Vita's more on the side of the PlayStation rather than the PSP and PS3. The hardware is designed so that manufacturing costs will drop like a rock, their devkits are cheap, they likely are accepting less royalties than Nintendo (which explains the abundance of niche publishers on Vita), and seem to have a more viable DD-avenue than the competition. The problems obviously arise from the fact that unlike the PS1 compared to the N64, the cost of making the actual games seem to negate the rest of what Sony's doing.

I also do want to say that even as a pretty clear Sony fanboy, I don't think Sony won with the PS1 all on the back of great hardware. Somewhere someone opened a check book.



Gran Turismo is a bigger franchise than Halo. In fact, I'm pretty sure someone broke it down and found out that the lowest selling (non-PSP) GT actually performed better than the highest selling Halo. Though that was prior to GT5, which IMO is on its way to around a 10 million LTD world wide.

Well one Halo comes out every year, and one Gran Turismo comes out when the Hale-Bopp comet comes around. You tell me which franchise has sold more this generation.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

How is this going to help, though? These games didn't really help the PS3. If Sony really has no higher aspirations for the Vita than 8m in five years they should just pack it in now.

I'd ague these games greatly helped PS3 in fact, they took it from being on track to do 4m in 5 years to 8m in 5 years.

I just think this is really the best avenue forward for Sony in Japan, it would give them the mid and high level sellers that Vita's in desparate need of, it gives the platform a unique software identity apart from 3DS and it helps them fend off Nintendo potentially coming in and pulling a repeat performance with Wii U.

 

[thehypocrite]

I feel Vita's more on the side of the PlayStation rather than the PSP and PS3. The hardware is designed so that manufacturing costs will drop like a rock, their devkits are cheap, they likely are accepting less royalties than Nintendo (which explains the abundance of niche publishers on Vita), and seem to have a more viable DD-avenue than the competition. The problems obviously arise from the fact that unlike the PS1 compared to the N64, the cost of making the actual games seem to negate the rest of what Sony's doing.

I also do want to say that even as a pretty clear Sony fanboy, I don't think Sony won with the PS1 all on the back of great hardware. Somewhere someone opened a check book.



Gran Turismo is a bigger franchise than Halo. In fact, I'm pretty sure someone broke it down and found out that the lowest selling (non-PSP) GT actually performed better than the highest selling Halo. Though that was prior to GT5, which IMO is on its way to around a 10 million LTD world wide.

You're already dead Takao.

 

[BurntPork]

IMO, if the currently announced software lineup is any indication - and I think it is - it'll be lucky to sell more than half of PSP's LTD, or to sell enough to build a viable software ecosystem in any region.

But, sure, I could be wrong about that "if", or the size of the potential dudebro audience in the West, or (as one of Opiate's scenarios suggested) the ability of lower-tier games to drive hardware, among other things. Which is why I'm not calling it "dead," as that would be a statement of fact that isn't true yet.

If things haven't turned around on Vita's software/sales fronts by E3 2013 or so (I was going to say the end of next year, but that seemed just a tad too early), it'll be fairly safe to say that there isn't going to be any savior.

Your prediction? It's more optimistic than mine, obviously.

I still see Vita selling 60-70 million while 3DS sells 85-100 million.

 

[Souldriver]

Some random thoughts:

• Sony
  
  Poor PSVita. There's no denying anymore that it is under-performing. Let's hope that in the end we look back at the "surprisingly poor launch for an otherwise successful platform". I really want it to be a success. I want one (eventually), and I want Sony to be in Nintendo's face at all times. These two keep each other in check and on top of their game. But, things don't look good. While Sony has some great software IP's, none of them are system sellers, and Sony has historically been a hardware maker relying on third parties to deliver the good stuff. And here's where Nintendo took a dump on Sony's meal. All the big names are on the 3DS, and at best the PSVita can have them "as well"...
  
  I just hope that in the end (for Sony's sake) the generation gets better for them as times goes on, like it did with the PSP and PS3, and thanks to the future proof hardware the PSVita does find a big audience and some surprise hit software.
  
  
• Nintendo
  
  Nintendo dominating the charts, my god. Apart from the big 3DS hardware and 3 software sellers, the Wii's holiday bump always surprises me. 17 titles in the top 50 is really nice. Kirby and Just Dance in particular are fun to watch each and every week. Kirby for 1 million!! Also,, if Nintendo didn't cut off life support for the console, the Wii could've probably kept up with the PS3 this year. Give it good software, and it sells. Big surprise! But whatever, Nintendo's focus probably lies on the WiiU right now, and rightfully so.
  
  It also astonishes me how much aces Nintendo has up their sleeves. Just think about all the options the company has as both a hardware and software maker. Price cuts, new colors and revisions of hardware, a huuuge list of successful franchises that guarantees them at least a decent amount of hardware/software sales to survive in worst case scenarios, cash on hand to take drastic measures securing support from other industry players, ... There really isn't any other player on the market that has so many options at its disposal, and so many chances to make bad business decisions turn alright. Well, except for MS: their infinite amount of cash guarantees them a place in the market no matter how many generations it would take them to become successful. Nintendo's only big weakness is that it is "only" a games company. If that fails, the company fails. But that as an aside.
  
  
• Obituary notes
  
  - Wii isn't dead yet (but will be after new year)
  - PSP not about to die either
  - Please don't die on me Vita, please?
  - Surprisingly soft drop for FFX-III. It's not dead yet either, but in the end it won't matter.
  - Awesome, awesome post from X26. It was written in the stars for a few days now that he would go out with a bang. He not dead, but got a lunch break from the mods.
  

 

[Takao]

I actually looked up the Halo numbers and GT5P+GT5 actually outshipped all of them combined ... until I got to Halo 3, which did 14 million. I'm willing to say that like Gran Turismo 3's 14 million that's an outlier that breaks franchise tradition due to when it was released. GT3 at the start of the PS2 at arguably the height of popularity for racers, and Halo 3 early in on the 360 prior to the explosion of CoD.

 

[cw_sasuke]

I actually looked up the Halo numbers and GT5P+GT5 actually outshipped all of them combined ... until I got to Halo 3, which did 14 million. I'm willing to say that like Gran Turismo 3's 14 million that's an outlier that breaks franchise tradition.

This was 2001 and on Ps2, times changes - GT isnt as strong anymore.

 

[Phoenician_Viking]

This was 2001 and on Ps2, times changes - GT isnt as strong anymore.

GT shipped 6 million in December 2010. It was still charting in Europe for the first half of this year. It will sell 10 million eventually. GT not being strong is false.

 

[Takao]

This was 2001 and on Ps2, times changes - GT isnt as strong anymore.

GT5 is on track to do about 10 million which would put it near the totals of GT, GT2, and GT4. GT3 at 14 million isn't the franchise's norm.

 

[cw_sasuke]

GT shipped 6 million in December 2010. It was still charting in Europe for the first half of this year. It will sell 10 million eventually. GT not being strong is false.

Where did i write that ?

 

[Mpl90]

How is this going to help, though? These games didn't really help the PS3. If Sony really has no higher aspirations for the Vita than 8m in five years they should just pack it in now.



My guess is that in two years they could sell the system for $150 easily, but that's based on napkin math and guesstimation from looking at cellphone prices, not any real subject-matter expertise.

1) Well, effectively PS3 is "only" at 8 millions, but it could be possible for those games to help more Vita than what they did for PS3 due to its portable nature: DW could be a good local multiplayer machine, for example. But Sony must think also to PS3, so a strategy like that isn't possible for them now.

2) 150 $ in two years? I don't think so, I don't see Vita at that price so soon.

 

[manueldelalas]

I won't comment on sales or games, and it may not even have much impact on the fate of either platform, but this is just too factually wrong to let go. 3DS is closer in performance to PSP than it is to Vita.

And that is the assumption that you and Sony are making, and that's exactly why it'll fail.

We have seen several VITA/3DS games now, we have seen a lot of separate VITA and 3DS games, and the difference is not big, I'm sorry but no, PSP doesn't compare with 3DS because PSP has technology from 2004 and 3DS from 2010, PSP can never hope to even compare.

And THAT's the big elephant nobody wants to acknowledge, the fact that high end PSP titles are coming exclusively to the 3DS is not because they can reuse assets or shit like that, it's because the 3DS is capable enough and power isn't a factor now in determining the handheld where the games are going. VITA may be a lot more powerful, but that fact, that difference has not been seen; maybe VITA uses a lot more power to display a much bigger resolution, but the difference in performances is very small.

(lol) and manueldelalas did it again.
Good job, man. It was a good laugh.
Especially the "VITA is a boring handheld" and "resistive touchscreen is MUCH, MUCH better for games than capacitive". You're doing a good job for months now.

I find it boring, it's like the iPhone 4S, at least 3DS had some cutting edge new hardware like a friggin 3D glassless screen.

About capacitive vs resistive, you can say what you want, but the fact that I have to tap on the same screen I'm playing, the fact that I have to use a finger instead of a thin stylus, the fact that it is not accurate at all (maybe it's my cellphone, I had a Galaxy Ace and now a Galaxy i9003); that screen will only be used for gimmicks that will be better with the standard controls or ports of Android games, mark my words.

There's at least three Troll master classes going down in this thread right now.

Someone confused Gamegear's lineup with Gamegear's launch lineup (it wasn't you).

Seriously, the Gamegear had Sonic, Phantasy Star, Shining Force, it had 390 titles in it's life, I don't see how the exclusive lineup was worse than the VITA's one.

 

[BurntPork]

And that is the assumption that you and Sony are making, and that's exactly why it'll fail.

We have seen several VITA/3DS games now, we have seen a lot of separate VITA and 3DS games, and the difference is not big, I'm sorry but no, PSP doesn't compare with 3DS because PSP has technology from 2004 and 3DS from 2010, PSP can never hope to even compare.

And THAT's the big elephant nobody wants to acknowledge, the fact that high end PSP titles are coming exclusively to the 3DS is not because they can reuse assets or shit like that, it's because the 3DS is capable enough and power isn't a factor now in determining the handheld where the games are going. VITA may be a lot more powerful, but that fact, that difference has not been seen; maybe VITA uses a lot more power to display a much bigger resolution, but the difference in performances is very small.

Last I checked, 3DS uses 2006 tech.

 

[Takao]

And that is the assumption that you and Sony are making, and that's exactly why it'll fail.

We have seen several VITA/3DS games now, we have seen a lot of separate VITA and 3DS games, and the difference is not big, I'm sorry but no, PSP doesn't compare with 3DS because PSP has technology from 2004 and 3DS from 2010, PSP can never hope to even compare.

And THAT's the big elephant nobody wants to acknowledge, the fact that high end PSP titles are coming exclusively to the 3DS is not because they can reuse assets or shit like that, it's because the 3DS is capable enough and power isn't a factor now in determining the handheld where the games are going. VITA may be a lot more powerful, but that fact, that difference has not been seen; maybe VITA uses a lot more power to display a much bigger resolution, but the difference in performances is very small.

A) How are 2 Vita/3DS titles (Good People Die, and Time Travelers) "several"?
B) If 2 titles are "several" then there are several PSP/3DS games (Time Travelers, and Pro Yakuya Spirits) ...

 

[test_account]

My guess is that in two years they could sell the system for $150 easily, but that's based on napkin math and guesstimation from looking at cellphone prices, not any real subject-matter expertise.

The development around this should be really interesting i think. If Sony could drop the price faster than expected without bleeding money, i wonder how this will affect the overall sales.

- PSP not about to die either

I wonder how long the PSP will live. I also feel that the PSP numbers last week was kinda overshadowed by the Vita numbers, but the PSP selling 100k+ last week is not bad at all

 

[Takao]

As it stands now, PSP has a better 2012 in software than Vita does.

 

[XPE]

The development around this should be really interesting i think. If Sony could drop the price faster than expected without bleeding money, i wonder how this will affect the overall sales.

The price drop will only matter if sony can back it up with some good software.

 

[Sadist]

As it stands now, PSP has a better 2012 in software than Vita does.

What games are slated for a 2012 release on PSP? Time Travelers is one of them.

 

[Takao]

What games are slated for a 2012 release on PSP? Time Travelers is one of them.

Tales of Heroes
Trails in the Sky
Gundam AGE
God Eater 2
SRW Something
Yakuza Black Panther 2

Probably more I'm forgetting.

 

[Relaxed Muscle]

This was 2001 and on Ps2, times changes - GT isnt as strong anymore.

In Europe is still strong as it was on the PS2 era.

The price drop will only matter if sony can back it up with some good software.

That's the problem Sony dosn't have any good portable IP, and the fact they're still trying with their console IP's knockoff isn't a good sign.

Of course another MH kind of IP could happen from a 3rd party, but I can't imagine one right now, that isn't MH that is.

 

[thehypocrite]

Bros are going to 100% not bother with either version. The question is solely then about what knock-on group of peripheral customers will buy the most handheld copies of CoD. Either way it's not going to be a huge number.



People on GAF were identifying the challenges of the next handheld generation way back in 2009, before either system's replacement was seriously hinted at. Sony was always stuck trying to maneuver between three challenge points:

• It was literally impossible for them to make an all-purpose general-market device that could compete with the iPhone.
• Any attempt to move downmarket would be limited both by the existence of the PSP and by the reality that Nintendo had an enormous, guaranteed downmarket waiting for them thanks to their stable of semi-casual IPs (Mario etc.)
• Any attempt to move upmarket would have to confront the reality that in the West, upmarket consumers strongly prefer home systems connected to their TVs while in Japan, no one is actually developing HD console-level games or interested in investing in the budgets they require.

The first challenger (the iPhone) was the one they obviously had the least ammunition against, so they wisely steered away from trying to directly compete on that turf (and didn't listen to the legions of foolish fan types yelling LALALA PS PHONE LALALA, thank goodness.) Moving downmarket was probably the most potentially profitable (especially since Nintendo's strategy this gen is moving upmarket) but it's also completely outside of Sony's comfort zone. That leaves an upmarket system, or, essentially, "let's just try what we did with PSP again."

Now, in terms of execution, they did a hell of a lot more things right this time than they did with either PSP or PS3. But ultimately software is more important than all other factors combined in selling a gaming system, and I don't think Sony has a meaningful strategy for dealing with that at all. Both PSP and PS3 had significant software problems but were rescued mostly by external factors: PSP by the "PlayStation aura" early on and by the revitalization that MH started later, PS3 by becoming the default console due to two hideously unpalatable alternatives. Vita can't benefit from that now-non-existent aura and they can't rely on becoming the software winner-by-default because publishers have already made it clear they're grooming 3DS for that position.

(This is why when I've talked about it, probably the best strategy I could come up with would be to significantly reduce licensing fees for smaller games and just go balls-out on making Vita the niche platform king -- enough density of different niche title releases would at least give them something to build on and guarantee them an ongoing flow of software.)



I don't think people are giving them enough credit for this. (Or for related hardware-engineering issues, like developer-friendly architecture.) Sony should be in position to drop the price significantly within the first year, which is huge. For all my problems with their software strategy, I think PSV is miles and miles ahead of Sony's previous efforts at gaming hardware.

This is one of the best options open to Sony at the moment, I think they should give even more incentives to 3rd party new IPs and innovative concepts, they also need to mirror this effort internally with SCEWWS, have all the studios work on a original game for the Vita. This needs to be a company wide initiative. Show a Vita in Sony movies when is contextually sound to do so, but also push for it, music videos showing the Vita, etc. Is clear that for them to succeed and surpass the results of the PSP they need the total commitment of the entire Sony.