Bros are going to 100% not bother with either version. The question is solely then about what knock-on group of peripheral customers will buy the most handheld copies of CoD. Either way it's not going to be a huge number.
People on GAF were identifying the challenges of the next handheld generation way back in 2009, before either system's replacement was seriously hinted at. Sony was always stuck trying to maneuver between three challenge points:
- It was literally impossible for them to make an all-purpose general-market device that could compete with the iPhone.
- Any attempt to move downmarket would be limited both by the existence of the PSP and by the reality that Nintendo had an enormous, guaranteed downmarket waiting for them thanks to their stable of semi-casual IPs (Mario etc.)
- Any attempt to move upmarket would have to confront the reality that in the West, upmarket consumers strongly prefer home systems connected to their TVs while in Japan, no one is actually developing HD console-level games or interested in investing in the budgets they require.
The first challenger (the iPhone) was the one they obviously had the least ammunition against, so they wisely steered away from trying to directly compete on that turf (and didn't listen to the legions of foolish fan types yelling LALALA PS PHONE LALALA, thank goodness.) Moving downmarket was probably the most potentially profitable (especially since Nintendo's strategy this gen is moving upmarket) but it's also completely outside of Sony's comfort zone. That leaves an upmarket system, or, essentially, "let's just try what we did with PSP again."
Now, in terms of execution, they did a hell of a lot more things right this time than they did with either PSP or PS3. But ultimately software is more important than all other factors combined in selling a gaming system, and I
don't think Sony has a meaningful strategy for dealing with that at all. Both PSP and PS3 had significant software problems but were rescued mostly by external factors: PSP by the "PlayStation aura" early on and by the revitalization that MH started later, PS3 by becoming the default console due to two hideously unpalatable alternatives. Vita can't benefit from that now-non-existent aura and they can't rely on becoming the software winner-by-default because publishers have already made it clear they're grooming 3DS for that position.
(This is why when I've talked about it, probably the best strategy I could come up with would be to significantly reduce licensing fees for smaller games and just go balls-out on making Vita the niche platform king -- enough density of different niche title releases would at least give them something to build on and guarantee them an ongoing flow of software.)
I don't think people are giving them enough credit for this. (Or for related hardware-engineering issues, like developer-friendly architecture.) Sony
should be in position to drop the price significantly within the first year, which is huge. For all my problems with their software strategy, I think PSV is miles and miles ahead of Sony's previous efforts at gaming hardware.
