• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Media Create Sales: Week 51, 2016 (Dec 19 - Dec 25)

Vena

Member
Man, catching up the 10 pages of this thread was painful, with the FFXV damage control, Sony Defense Force, video game development experts, Switch is gonna bomb/be a huge success, also the amount of sarcasm was just too much, it's fun once in a while, when you have 5 consecutive posts and it doesn't even make for a good read then what's the point :(

With all the doom and gloom it still seems like winter holidays exceeded expectations on every front, like almost every year, so let's at least rejoice on that.

I hope we'll finish 2016's MC Threads on a better note next week.

As a physicist, I enjoy the quantum mechanics parallels here with Switch as our resident Schroedinger's Cat.
 

noshten

Member
Man, catching up the 10 pages of this thread was painful, with the FFXV damage control, Sony Defense Force, video game development experts, Switch is gonna bomb/be a huge success, also the amount of sarcasm was just too much, it's fun once in a while, when you have 5 consecutive posts and it doesn't even make for a good read then what's the point :(

With all the doom and gloom it still seems like winter holidays exceeded expectations on every front, like almost every year, so let's at least rejoice on that.

I hope we'll finish 2016's MC Threads on a better note next week.

If we look at the overall picture HW is down YoY because of mainly the Wii U doing so much worse compared to last year. I think SMM, 3DS and PS4 exceeded expectations. FFXV is doing better than anticipated but still won't sell a million physically in Japan unless you count second hand sales.
I think software is exceeding expectations in December mainly because 3DS sort of has been a Christmas focus for Nintendo this year with SMM, Pokemon and YW3 all being titles that generally you'd expect to do very well during a holiday.



Anyhow regarding SMM I expected it to do well but Japan has really outperformed my expectations

Dec SMM 3DS launch thread:

Most of the legs on SMM Wii U was because people were buying Splatoon and there was no Splatoon bundle. SMM on 3DS with Super Mario Run will definitely be another multi million seller by the end of December WW, while in Japan I would not be surprised for it to sell another 500k in December.
 

Ōkami

Member
Man, catching up the 10 pages of this thread was painful, with the FFXV damage control, Sony Defense Force, video game development experts, Switch is gonna bomb/be a huge success, also the amount of sarcasm was just too much, it's fun once in a while, when you have 5 consecutive posts and it doesn't even make for a good read then what's the point :(

With all the doom and gloom it still seems like winter holidays exceeded expectations on every front, like almost every year, so let's at least rejoice on that.

I hope we'll finish 2016's MC Threads on a better note next week.
As insufferable as Final Fantasy fans have been the past few weeks, we're not done yet, next up are Resident Evil fans on January and then Nintendo fans in March.
 

Vena

Member
I'm actually rather surprised by how active this thread has been with gloom given that we're looking at a lot of over-performance (against expectations) this holiday from the 3DS and a lot of its software (especially SMM), and the PS4.

Ōkami;227357712 said:
As insufferable as Final Fantasy fans have been the past few weeks, we're not done yet, next up are Resident Evil fans on January and then Nintendo fans in March.

I thought we were all pretty much in agreement that RE7 was... not going to do well.

I see, but I think MH needs only 4 people to play the game locally not 8 like Splatoon since they need 4 people for each team, right?

(I'm not an expert on Splatton mechanics at all).

Not really much of a reason why Splatoon couldn't work with adhoc 2v2. In fact the original reveal even kind of painted a 2v2 picture for when the teams were practicing. But the adhoc seems like its effectively guaranteed given they want to position it as a competitive game, and wifi needs would make that more complicated than local adhoc. They've had local offerings for all of there more recent competitive leaning games sans Splatoon's original release.

Smash, Splatoon, and the rumored Melee VC and Pokken all seem to be aiming at a competitive leaning with software right out of the gate. Splatoon is budding, but Smash is exceptionally active so that port is the least surprising given the short lifetime of Sm4sh and its strong adoption. Kind of like the port of SSF4U to current gen but Smash has already transitioned to a service-lite model with DLC and balance passes. If they do Melee VC correctly (and rumor is its NERD, who I don't think have ever had a bad emulation release) it would help transition a lot of the melee community from CRT.

MK8 seems like the odd one out, but given the rumored additions (16 tracks, more characters, and battle mode) its effectively half a new game on top of the port. And given how well MK8 sold, a greatly expanded port seems logical.
 
My questions/doubts were the "online" component (the most popular) in portable mode basically since you don't have wifi everywhere.

I think its more about playing with people. They could do 8 people local with bots and it would probably be fine.

Since the switch can hook up to the TV I would argue the only real issue you are looking at is user base and if people would care to gather for it and I think those will not be big issues.

I'd expect Splatoon to not only be the packin but for it to have the same "type" of update system. Where devs end up doing a lot of additional updates in the next few years.

I'd be suprised if Splatoon doesn't end up the top selling Switch game in Japan based on this, I honestly expect Splatoon on switch to sell a minimum of 5 million in Japan alone. If this game can sell around 2 million on the Wii U during it's lifetime - historical highs are the limit(5mil +).

I was talking more about the potential of a port over a sequel. It may just be Splatoon is userbase limited but I wonder if there is a large portion of new players that want it but said fuck WiiU. The game hasnt been actively supported in a while so I wonder whether they will return to supporting it or focus on a sequel. I dont see Splatoon Switch selling 5 million though. That's just me.

Interested to see what happens.

Also no offense to Super Mario Maker Wii U in Japan but that game would have sold half as much on the Wii U if Splatoon wasn't such a beast at moving Hardware last year.

I dont fault a game for being the beneficiary of better hardware sales. If WiiU wasnt shit in sales the game probably woulda sold more. Does that really matter here and now?
 

Vena

Member
Also I'd say that SMM 3DS kind of shows that Japan doesn't care if its a port (even a down port) if its on preferred hardware.

This should probably be kept in mind when we discuss other ports and such going forward... like, say, DQXI. :p
 

L~A

Member
Funny how Diamond & Pearl were the best selling entries with the worst 1st 6 weeks (except R/G obviously) lol. It's all about the legs. B/W was ridiculous up front though. Surprised at how close X/Y & S/M are though.I thought this past week would push S/M more ahead of X/Y given the 300K+ sales and it being the holidays and all (for X/Y it would've been mid-Nov).

No surprise, Black and White was followed by Black and White 2, a full-fledged sequel (though taking place in the same work), the following year. First time ever this happened. Pokémon Stars is going to be interesting, as it might be something entirely different (third version the next year, and on a brand new console)

��
So, if I don't care about building/sharing levels and all that, there are still enough levels built-in for single/solo play?

There definitely is a lot of levels (100, + challenges for each one), and they are all pretty well-made. Definitely worth it as a regular Mario platformer game.

Well, to be fair. Famitsu has been undertracking 3DS for the whole year, just take a look at every weekly thread.
So, this week is perfect to make some adjustments.

Yup, it is the last week of the year after all.

***

Anyway, looking at 3DS sales, we see that it did reach 22 million units this year, as Chris pointed out. Well, we already knew about that since last week, but still... And it looks like it's going to sell 2m units YTD too, just needs about 96k during Week 52. Already reached with Pokémon 2DS bundled.

Famitsu sales are higher than Media Create's for the 3DS, but even with MC, sales are up YoY for Week 51 (though they're not if you remove the 2DS).

By the way, N3DS range = 4 858 852 LTD. Definitely going to top 5m units next year.

And I guess Media Create (and Famitsu) will stop tracking the 3DS XL next week? It's been discontinued after a while, and it's been selling sub 1k for a while (even sub 100 for many weeks). OG 3DS, I'm not sure, but I think Nintendo will announce discontinuation in January.

***

Oh, and about the Splatoon Switch local multiplayer discussion... I don't see how there could not be local multiplayer after how big a deal Nintendo made of that in the reveal trailer, especially with Splatoon.
 
Also I'd say that SMM 3DS kind of shows that Japan doesn't care if its a port (even a down port) if its on preferred hardware.

This should probably be kept in mind when we discuss other ports and such going forward... like, say, DQXI. :p
Umm.. SMM is infact a brand new mario game as explained by others.

Why should people who already completed the story of DQXI be interested in playing a downport again. It will likely attract new buyers but I doubt there will be much double dippers. Not everyone has disposable income.

Splatoon makes much more sense here and if they go with other Wii U ports, hopefully they offer something extra with them.
 

ZSaberLink

Media Create Maven
No surprise, Black and White was followed by Black and White 2, a full-fledged sequel (though taking place in the same work), the following year. First time ever this happened. Pokémon Stars is going to be interesting, as it might be something entirely different (third version the next year, and on a brand new console)

Fair point.

04./00. [3DS] Momotaro Dentetsu 2017: Tachiagare Nippon!! <TBL> (Nintendo) {2016.12.22} (¥4.980) - 132.063 / NEW <40-60%>

So it looks like this is the biggest opening for the series since 1997 (which was on PS1?)? Let's see how the legs are :). So Nintendo bought out the franchise from Konami? Nice... kind of wish they'd do that for other Hudson IPs lol...
 

Ōkami

Member
For Famitsu the PS4 will surpass 4 million units sold in 151 weeks.

In the same timeframe other systems sold:

PS2: 10.362.139
WII: 8.608.795
PS1: 8.250.875
N64: 3.491.727
PS3: 3.541.398
NGC: 3.366.063
WIU: 2.615.685

4m in 151 weeks for PS4, meanwhile for these other systems it took:

WII: 54 weeks
PS2: 66 weeks
PS1: 107 weeks
PS3: 163 weeks
N64: 182 weeks
NGC: 259 weeks
WIU: Never got there
 
Fair point.

04./00. [3DS] Momotaro Dentetsu 2017: Tachiagare Nippon!! <TBL> (Nintendo) {2016.12.22} (¥4.980) - 132.063 / NEW <40-60%>

So it looks like this is the biggest opening for the series since 1997 (which was on PS1?)? Let's see how the legs are :). So Nintendo bought out the franchise from Konami? Nice... kind of wish they'd do that for other Hudson IPs lol...

Not bought, just licensed. :) BUT, hopefully this prompts Konami to allowing Nintendo to use Hudson's other IPs *cough*Bomberman*cough*. Sorry, I had a pretty explosive cough there...
 
&#332;kami;227359530 said:
For Famitsu the PS4 will surpass 4 million units sold in 151 weeks.

In the same timeframe other systems sold:

PS2: 10.362.139
WII: 8.608.795
PS1: 8.250.875
N64: 3.491.727
PS3: 3.541.398
NGC: 3.366.063
WIU: 2.615.685

4m in 151 weeks for PS4, meanwhile for these other systems it took:

WII: 54 weeks
PS2: 66 weeks
PS1: 107 weeks
PS3: 163 weeks
N64: 182 weeks
NGC: 259 weeks
WIU: Never got there

Excellent, thanks, I was searching for some perspective especially compared to PS3. The PS4 really has nothing to be ashamed of. And boy, that 2017 lineup is going to be good once again T_T
 

Curufinwe

Member
&#332;kami;227359530 said:
For Famitsu the PS4 will surpass 4 million units sold in 151 weeks.

In the same timeframe other systems sold:

PS2: 10.362.139
WII: 8.608.795
PS1: 8.250.875
N64: 3.491.727
PS3: 3.541.398
NGC: 3.366.063
WIU: 2.615.685

4m in 151 weeks for PS4, meanwhile for these other systems it took:

WII: 54 weeks
PS2: 66 weeks
PS1: 107 weeks
PS3: 163 weeks
N64: 182 weeks
NGC: 259 weeks
WIU: Never got there

Wait, PS4 is selling faster than PS3 in Japan?
 

Vic

Please help me with my bad english
But how the PS4 is doing software wise compared to the PS3 within a similar timeframe?
 
After seeing PS4 first year in Japan thought it was going to do 5 to 6 million over there .
Seem it should do over that but of course won't come near PS3 numbers .
 

Celine

Member
If we look at the overall picture HW is down YoY because of mainly the Wii U doing so much worse compared to last year.
Everything (3DS, WiiU, PSV, PS3, Xbone) is down except PS4 which didn't surge as much to counter the decline of the rest.
After Nintendo announced the delay of the Switch to next year it was damn easy to predict HW down YoY (and 2015 was already a record low year).
 

Ōkami

Member
You got to remember how terrible the first few years of the PS3 were, at time it was often ridiculed as it was just doing half of what the Wii was.

Also the slimer and cheaper PS3 alongisde FFXIII didn't arrive until week 161, PS4's lead is mostly due to that, during the same weeks PS4 was selling 70k-100k PS3 was doing 30k, PS4 is in the middle of the holidays and PS3 was in the middle of an empty October.

Wii was often outpacing the PS1 and PS2 too, so you shouldn't read too much into that.
 
But how the PS4 is doing software wise compared to the PS3 within a similar timeframe?

A direct comparison would not be simple since every single PS4 retail games are also avaiable on the PlayStation Store, and digital was little to non-existent for the majority of the PS3 lifespan.
 

noshten

Member
Everything (3DS, WiiU, PSV, PS3, Xbone) is down except PS4 which didn't surge as much to counter the decline of the rest.
After Nintendo announced the delay of the Switch to next year it was damn easy to predict HW down YoY (and 2015 was already a record low year).

I meant the December figures not YoY sorry.
Also I forgot about PS3 and Xbone .... and Vita isn't as healthy as last year obviously.
 

Vena

Member
A direct comparison would not be simple since every single PS4 retail games are also avaiable on the PlayStation Store, and digital was little to non-existent for the majority of the PS3 lifespan.

It would be simple, just round the number up with a generous 15 to 20% rescale on the PS4.
 

Vic

Please help me with my bad english
A direct comparison would not be simple since every single PS4 retail games are also avaiable on the PlayStation Store, and digital was little to non-existent for the majority of the PS3 lifespan.
There's no estimate of the ratio of games sold though retailers compared to PSS?
 

Ōkami

Member
Just on retail software PS4 is ahead as I noted a few weeks ago.

PS3's early years where awful, most owners only bought the same handful of games, PS4 is getting much more games and has a more active install base, owners are buying more and more varied software.
 

ethomaz

Banned
But how the PS4 is doing software wise compared to the PS3 within a similar timeframe?
PS4 is ahead by significant margin without counting digital that should favor PS4 by a huge margin.

Even if PS4 lose the lead to PS3 for a few weeks in hardware it won't happen in software even with FFXIII 1.5m launch.
 

ZSaberLink

Media Create Maven
Ps4 is not doing as bad as many were predicting last year in japan

Well given that it "almost" (75% really, but w/e) doubled its install base this year, it helps a lot (2.3M -> 4M, aka ).

People early last year were talking about PS4 outselling Wii U only in 2017.
Also people didn't expect Nintendo to have Wii U shortages by like February and Nintendo never really restocked the thing. If the Wii U had even sold like it did last year, around 800K, PS4 wouldn't have caught up until about now / 2017. It wasn't that far-fetched.
 

Asd202

Member
Also people didn't expect Nintendo to have Wii U shortages by like February and Nintendo never really restocked the thing. If the Wii U had even sold like it did last year, around 800K, PS4 wouldn't have caught up until about now / 2017. It wasn't that far-fetched.

Imo it was far fatched knowing that Wii U has no games left for it and not mention last year most thought Switch would be out this year while making their predictions and Switch would have hurt Wii U more than PS4.
 

noobie

Banned
&#332;kami;227359530 said:
For Famitsu the PS4 will surpass 4 million units sold in 151 weeks.

In the same timeframe other systems sold:

PS2: 10.362.139
WII: 8.608.795
PS1: 8.250.875
N64: 3.491.727
PS3: 3.541.398
NGC: 3.366.063
WIU: 2.615.685

4m in 151 weeks for PS4, meanwhile for these other systems it took:

WII: 54 weeks
PS2: 66 weeks
PS1: 107 weeks
PS3: 163 weeks
N64: 182 weeks
NGC: 259 weeks
WIU: Never got there
WoW. PS1 sold 4 million in 107 weeks and in next 47 weeks (less then a year) it sold 4.25 million. What really happened?
 

ZSaberLink

Media Create Maven
WoW. PS1 sold 4 million in 107 weeks and in next 47 weeks (less then a year) it sold 4.25 million. What really happened?
PS1 sales.
Year Sales LTD
1994 280.000 280.000
1995 1.370.000 1.650.000
1996 2.689.095 4.339.095
1997 5.193.055 9.532.150
1998 4.514.775 13.752.795
1999 2.927.856 16.680.651
2000 1.179.880 17.860.531
2001 679.437 18.539.968
2002 248.096 18.778.064
2003 62.386 18.850.450
2004 4.900 18.855.344

FF7 released in Jan 1997. I presume that's what happened.
 

horuhe

Member
I think PS4 wouldn't have surpassed Wii U, if it wasn't by Nintendo's own fault. I mean, as it was stated, the shortages and the afterwards confirmation of it by Nintendo were really unexpected. That and the stupid decision of making the console every time more expensive. If it wasn't for those factors, the mere fact of having Splatoon and Minecraft would have made Wii U last a little longer on being surpassed by PS4.
 

ZSaberLink

Media Create Maven
Also why are people saying the PS4 outsold the PS3's best year? At least according to Famitsu it fell slightly short... I think people are comparing MC numbers to Famitsu.

Famitsu
PS3 2009 1.864.648
PS4 2016 - 1.790.883

It probably will in media create, but it hasn't actually done it yet:
Media Create
PS3 2009 1.764.531
PS4 2016 (with one week to go) - 1.716.249

I think PS4 wouldn't have surpassed Wii U, if it wasn't by Nintendo's own fault. I mean, as it was stated, the shortages and the afterwards confirmation of it by Nintendo were really unexpected. That and the stupid decision of making the console every time more expensive. If it wasn't for those factors, the only fact of having Splatoon and Minecraft would have made Wii U lasting a little longer on being surpassed by PS4.

I honestly think it's kind of crazy that DESPITE all that, the Wii U was only 700K short of outselling the GameCube in Japan...
 

Maniel

Banned
Also why are people saying the PS4 outsold the PS3's best year? At least according to Famitsu it fell slightly short... I think people are comparing MC numbers to Famitsu.

Famitsu
PS3 2009 1.864.648
PS4 2016 - 1.790.883

It probably will in media create, but it hasn't actually done it yet:
Media Create
PS3 2009 1.764.531
PS4 2016 (with one week to go) - 1.716.249
Here are the yearly Famitsu sales for ps3.

PS3 (2006) 466,716 (launch / 8 weeks of data)
PS3 (2007) 1,206,347
PS3 (2008) 991,303
PS3 (2009) 1,727,041
PS3 (2010) 1,558,480
PS3 (2011) 1,467,261
PS3 (2012) 1,327,185
PS3 (2013) 824,167
 

dracula_x

Member
I think PS4 wouldn't have surpassed Wii U, if it wasn't by Nintendo's own fault. I mean, as it was stated, the shortages and the afterwards confirmation of it by Nintendo were really unexpected. That and the stupid decision of making the console every time more expensive. If it wasn't for those factors, the mere fact of having Splatoon and Minecraft would have made Wii U last a little longer on being surpassed by PS4.

No. Wii U should be up YoY to make this happen (> 1 million units in 2016).

Just reminder, Wii U in 2015 – 877.082 (with Splatoon and SMM).
 

ZSaberLink

Media Create Maven

viHuGi

Banned
PS3 didn't get Slim and price drop until later into its relative life.
PS4 will start falling behind now.

What? Ps3 Slim was already in the market at 299e on 2009 holiday which is what correspond to Ps4 year as of 2016 and Ps4 still won.
 

horuhe

Member
No. Wii U should be up YoY to make this happen (> 1 million units in 2016).

Just reminder, Wii U in 2015 &#8211; 877.082 (with Splatoon and SMM).

Obviously, since we are assuming things...

Don't you think that without the cost of opportunity Nintendo had with lost sales because of shortages, a proper bundle with Splatoon at 29,990yen, Minecraft as second important game and factually this 2016 having a better holiday season than 2015, Wii U couldn't have resisted until 2017?
 
Could be the same thing ;)

Don't make me laugh.

But how the PS4 is doing software wise compared to the PS3 within a similar timeframe?

This. Anyone got numbers? Post 2009 PS3 did pick up.

After seeing PS4 first year in Japan thought it was going to do 5 to 6 million over there .
Seem it should do over that but of course won't come near PS3 numbers .

Its cycle will be shorter as well.

It would be simple, just round the number up with a generous 15 to 20% rescale on the PS4.

20% is too high. 10-15%. Few titles achieve 20%+ from what I've seen.

Well given that it "almost" (75% really, but w/e) doubled its install base this year, it helps a lot (2.3M -> 4M, aka ).


Also people didn't expect Nintendo to have Wii U shortages by like February and Nintendo never really restocked the thing. If the Wii U had even sold like it did last year, around 800K, PS4 wouldn't have caught up until about now / 2017. It wasn't that far-fetched.

I think PS4 wouldn't have surpassed Wii U, if it wasn't by Nintendo's own fault. I mean, as it was stated, the shortages and the afterwards confirmation of it by Nintendo were really unexpected. That and the stupid decision of making the console every time more expensive. If it wasn't for those factors, the mere fact of having Splatoon and Minecraft would have made Wii U last a little longer on being surpassed by PS4.

No chance. WiiU would be down from last years 830k. PS4 just did 1.75 million. I don't think anyone expected PS4 to do so well hardware wise this year.
 

noobie

Banned
Also why are people saying the PS4 outsold the PS3's best year? At least according to Famitsu it fell slightly short... I think people are comparing MC numbers to Famitsu.

Famitsu
PS3 2009 1.864.648
PS4 2016 - 1.790.883

It probably will in media create, but it hasn't actually done it yet:
Media Create
PS3 2009 1.764.531
PS4 2016 (with one week to go) - 1.716.249



I honestly think it's kind of crazy that DESPITE all that, the Wii U was only 700K short of outselling the GameCube in Japan...
Is it not the week 51 of 2016 or is it week 52 for famitsu for year 2016?
No chance. WiiU would be down from last years 830k. PS4 just did 1.75 million. I don't think anyone expected PS4 to do so well hardware wise this year.

I think if we bring old prediction for PS4 for 2016, then we will surely find people predicting 2 million for PS4 especially considering GTS and horizon were also expected to launch in 2016 and may be few more.
 
Is it not the week 51 of 2016 or is it week 52 for famitsu for year 2016?


I think if we bring old prediction for PS4 for 2016, then we will surely find people predicting 2 million for PS4 especially considering GTS and horizon were also expected to launch in 2016 and may be few more.

Actually you could be right.
 

Busaiku

Member
What? Ps3 Slim was already in the market at 299e on 2009 holiday which is what correspond to Ps4 year as of 2016 and Ps4 still won.
PS4 launched in February 2014, which is why it's up when comparing launch aligned.
PS4 Slim launched 31 months into its life, PS3 Slim was 33 months.
 

Oregano

Member
I think people did in general underestimate the PS4's hardware sales but the impact of VR was vastly overestimated. It was a total non-factor which people didn't really expect.
 

Vena

Member
Actually you could be right.

He's right unless my memory fails.

We had a lot of high or near 2 million estimates because of the various software releasing this year, before the year set in and brought in decline after decline and other delays.

But we also had a lot of us who were much more pessimistic in the lower ends of the spectra, modest YoY rise. Which would have put it around 1.5-1.6m.

Seems it more or less met us halfway.
 
Top Bottom