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Media Create Sales: Week 51, 2016 (Dec 19 - Dec 25)

C

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
1*: [WIU] Super Mario Maker # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2015.09.10} (¥5.700) - 143.514 / 972.406 <60-80%>
2*: [3DS] Super Mario Maker for Nintendo 3DS <ACT> (Nintendo) {2016.12.01} (¥4.700) - 160.016 / 743.388 <40-60%>
Code: 
+--+----------+----------+
|  |  Famitsu |  Famitsu |
|  |     1*   |     2*   |
|Wk|2015.09.10|2016.12.01|
|  |    to    |    to    |
|  |2016.12.25|2018.03.18|
+--+----------+----------+
| 1|   143.514|   160.016|
| 2|    83.572|   116.798|
| 3|    53.849|   151.192|
| 4|    30.251|   315.382|
| 5|    25.706|          |
| 6|    21.793|          |
| 7|    14.913|          |
| 8|    12.823|          |
| 9|    13.025|          |
|10|    10.033|          |
|11|     9.913|          |
|12|    14.291|          |
|13|    20.961|          |
|14|    41.462|          |
|15|    80.807|          |
|16|    97.281|          |
|17|    68.523|          |
|18|    30.399|          |
|19|    15.555|          |
|20|     9.370|          |
|21|     7.931|          |
|22|     5.618|          |
|23|     4.692|          |
|24|     6.136|          |
|25|     3.513|          |
|26|     5.656|          |
|27|     3.218|          |
|28|     4.920|          |
|29|     6.696|          |
|30|     4.175|          |
|31|     5.220|          |
|32|     5.132|          |
|33|     6.915|          |
|34|     8.743|          |
|35|     9.108|          |
|36|     3.435|          |
|37|     3.537|          |
|38|     3.779|          |
|39|     4.522|          |
|40|     3.836|          |
|41|     4.852|          |
|42|     4.826|          |
|43|     5.671|          |
|44|     3.550|          |
|45|     1.756|          |
|46|          |          |
|47|          |          |
|48|          |          |
|49|          |          |
|50|          |          |
|51|          |          |
|52|          |          |
|53|          |          |
|54|          |          |
|55|          |          |
|56|          |          |
|57|          |          |
|58|          |          |
|59|          |          |
|60|          |          |
|61|          |          |
|62|          |          |
|63|          |          |
|64|          |          |
|65|          |          |
|66|          |          |
|67|     6.134|          |
|68|    16.262|          |
+--+----------+----------+
graph.png
 
A

Alrus

Member
dracula_x said:
What "we know" and "what SE expected" are two different things.
Click to expand...

I mean... A project 10 years in the making with insane amount of marketing tie-ins and expensive side projects. Do you honestly think Square Enix expects it to sell less than FF XIII?
 
O

Oregano

Member
Even if Square Enix barely expected a million in Japan the questions are then why were expectations so low? Why are they okay with such a big decline?

The answers "The West" and "Asia" don't really matter because it's not a zero sum equation.
 
S

Stairouais

Member
Jaymageck said:
The Mario Maker sales are annoying. I love the Wii U game but the 3DS version strips the feature that made it truly great (online level sharing). I kind of wish Nintendo were being punished for that so they realized it was a bad call but I guess not.
Click to expand...

I agree, although, Streetpass in Japan for this game might be far more practical than online sharing.
 
D

dracula_x

Member
cw_sasuke said:
So we cant comment on MC performance anymore without waiting for FY results ? Come on...everyone knows how expensive FFXV was - the demos, anime, movie, mobile games and other tie-ins all cost money as well. Even stuff like Type 0-HD were all put in place to get the current-gen market ready for the big FFXV release - so i doubt thats all SE expected when they greenlit all those projects leading up to FFXV.
Click to expand...

and how expensive FFXV was? Any numbers provided by SE?

Also, without actual WW LTD numbers we can't be sure how bad/well FFXV is performing.

Alrus said:
I mean... A project 10 years in the making with insane amount of marketing tie-ins and expensive side projects. Do you honestly think Square Enix expects it to sell less than FF XIII?
Click to expand...

that's not true. You're confusing pre-production with full-time development.
 
L

LordKano

Member
dracula_x said:
and how expensive FFXV was? Any numbers provided by SE?

Also, without actual WW LTD numbers we can't be sure how bad/well FFXV is performing.
Click to expand...

I can say without actual WW LTD numbers that it's badly performing in Japan. That's the point of this thread.
 
K

KillerMan91

Member
sense said:
Great sales for 3ds and Mario maker. Really surprised with the latter after its launch but I guess you can't go wrong with Mario.

PS4 still holding strong and I am sure there were many that did not expect it to sell near 1.8 million at the beginning of this year.

I thought minecraft vita retail was very close to 1 million?
Click to expand...

You are mixing trackers. Media Create has it close to a million (966.976). If MC weekly boost for it is similar to famitsu it should clear the million when we get the numbers.
 
T

Toth

Member
Alrus said:
I mean... A project 10 years in the making with insane amount of marketing tie-ins and expensive side projects. Do you honestly think Square Enix expects it to sell less than FF XIII?
Click to expand...

A largely open world game on a platform that hasn't had any million seller yet? There is no way they had sky high expectations for Japan.
 
D

DarkLordMalik

Member
Kashiwaba said:
Well i guess it's safe to assume FFXV is already platinum counting all of Asia+digital.
Click to expand...
It has shipped around 1.1 million in Japan and 'Hundreds of Thousands' in China and this includes digital as well.

The shipped+digital number for China and Japan alone should be above 1.5 million easily.
 
C

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Wii 3DS exceeding 200k this week maybe cvx's assuption Famicom Mini sold 300-400k, with the big restocks it got, isn't very far from reality.
 
A

Alrus

Member
Toth said:
A largely open world game on a platform that hasn't had any million seller yet? There is no way they had sky high expectations for Japan.
Click to expand...

I don't think Open World is such a problem in Japan that it causes a franchise's sales to half between iteration. Not having million sellers shouldn't be a problem for Final Fantasy, it certainly wasn't before this one.

MacTag said:
I see we're at Asia/West/digital saviors yet again. Do we really have to do this in every MC thread?
Click to expand...

It's either this or MH 5 platform speculation. Pick your poison.
 
O

Oregano

Member
Toth said:
A largely open world game on a platform that hasn't had any million seller yet? There is no way they had sky high expectations for Japan.
Click to expand...

FFXIII was the first million seller on PS3 and did double FFXV.

Considering how GTA V did open world isn't a limiting factor.
 
Bruno MB

Bruno MB

Member
Prediction League December 2016 Results

Congratulations to:

- Yeshua, for winning by units!
- Yeshua, for winning by mean error %!


Code: 
    BY UNITS                                      BY MEAN ERROR %

    1          Yeshua      805.898                1          Yeshua       20,06%
    2         Bruno MB     985.898                2        Chris1964      22,30%
    3        Chris1964    1.063.671               3          noobie       23,15%
    4          noobie     1.085.898               4        astrogamer     27,62%
    5         random25    1.112.374               5         Bruno MB      29,98%
    6          u_neek     1.143.992               6          Aters        31,21%
    7        astrogamer   1.233.246               7           DKHF        31,91%
    8          Aters      1.291.866               8         random25      34,48%
    9           DKHF      1.591.996               9          u_neek       35,31%

Code: 
                                             Famitsu     DKHF    Bruno MB   noobie  Chris1964   Aters    random25   Yeshua    u_neek  astrogamer
        [3DS] Nintendo 3DS Hardware          492.298   390.000   425.000   475.000   432.109   318.000   450.000   400.000   400.000   395.000
        [PS4] PlayStation 4 Hardware         397.607   251.000   265.000   255.000   234.567   230.000   250.000   300.000   300.000   190.000
 [3DS] Pokémon Sun / Moon [2nd month sales]  918.769   680.000   850.000   750.000   987.654   804.000  1.000.000  800.000   900.000   854.000
           [PS4] Final Fantasy XV            860.127   976.478   880.000   920.000   987.654   811.000   700.000   900.000  1.100.000  721.000
  [3DS] Super Mario Maker for Nintendo 3DS   743.388   188.000   270.000   205.000   234.567   200.000   300.000   500.000   370.000   200.000
               [3DS] Miitopia                102.810   102.000   150.000   125.000   123.456    60.000   250.000   120.000   250.000   121.000
              [PS4] Yakuza 6                 288.847   480.000   355.000   395.000   345.678   350.000   330.000   300.000   370.000   308.000
       [3DS] Yo-kai Watch 3: Sukiyaki        509.667   270.000   450.000   485.000   456.789   390.000   550.000   350.000   420.000   390.000
         [PSV] SaGa: Scarlet Grace            74.047    75.000   125.000    80.000    78.901    55.000    65.000   100.000    70.000    50.000

             TOTAL ABS. DIFF.                         1.591.996  985.898  1.085.898 1.063.671 1.291.866 1.112.374  805.898  1.143.992 1.233.246
                MEAN ERROR %                            31,91%    29,98%    23,15%    22,30%    31,21%    34,48%    20,06%    35,31%    27,62%

Code: 
                     STATISTICS                       Famitsu   GAF_AVG     OVER     UNDER      MIN       MAX          CLOSEST BY
             [3DS] Nintendo 3DS Hardware              492.298   409.457      0%       100%    318.000   475.000      475.000 noobie
            [PS4] PlayStation 4 Hardware              397.607   252.841      0%       100%    190.000   300.000      300.000 Yeshua
     [3DS] Pokémon Sun / Moon [2nd month sales]       918.769   847.295     22%       78%     680.000  1.000.000     900.000 u_neek
               [PS4] Final Fantasy XV                 860.127   888.459     67%       33%     700.000  1.100.000    880.000 Bruno MB
      [3DS] Super Mario Maker for Nintendo 3DS        743.388   274.174      0%       100%    188.000   500.000      500.000 Yeshua
                   [3DS] Miitopia                     102.810   144.606     78%       22%      60.000   250.000       102.000 DKHF
                   [PS4] Yakuza 6                     288.847   359.298     100%       0%     300.000   480.000      300.000 Yeshua
           [3DS] Yo-kai Watch 3: Sukiyaki             509.667   417.977     11%       89%     270.000   550.000      485.000 noobie
             [PSV] SaGa: Scarlet Grace                 74.047    77.656     56%       44%      55.000   125.000       75.000 DKHF
 
S

system11

Member
Xbox 1 sales in Japan are the joke that keeps on giving.

Over 100:1 ratio for Christmas, one week of PS4 sales is significantly greater than the entire lifetime sales of the XB1.

Has anything mainstream ever failed this hard, I want to say 3DO maybe, but that wasn't really a contender from day 1.
 
A

AntMurda

Member
L~A said:
It would need the same legs as Animal Crossing, and I'm not convinced it's going to get them yet.
Click to expand...

I think a better comparison would be Tomodachi Collection (the first one). New IP, released 5 years into the NDS life, and slow start but legs got it to 3.5 million in Japan.

Miitopia is a more attractive product IMO. But I don't know if the 3DS user base has the same leg power potential at this point.
 
C

Celine

Member
system11 said:
Has anything mainstream ever failed this hard, I want to say 3DO maybe, but that wasn't really a contender from day 1.
Click to expand...
3DO was manufactured and sold by Matsushita/Panasonic (and to a much lesser extent Sanyo) in Japan.
In Japan 3DO final shipment was 770K which is much higher than what XBO will land in the end (less than 100K?).
Atari Jaguar and Bandai/Apple Pippin performed worse than XBO in Japan.
 
V

viHuGi

Banned
DarkLordMalik said:
Depends on how long it takes for the Japanese market to collapse. All eyes are on the Switch now.
Click to expand...

lol same story every year, here we are again, colapse this and that haha

Never stop, never stop.

Celine said:
3DO was manufactured and sold by Matushita/Panasonic (and to a much lesser extent Sanyo) in Japan.
Final shipment in Japan was 770K which is much higher than what XBO will land in the end (less than 100K?).
Atari Jaguar and Bandai/Apple Pippin performed worse than XBO in Japan.
Click to expand...

Xbox was never desired in Japan, Microsoft needs to do something fast to change this. those sales are unacceptable.
 
S

system11

Member
Celine said:
3DO was manufactured and sold by Matushita/Panasonic (and to a much lesser extent Sanyo) in Japan.
In Japana 3DO final shipment was 770K which is much higher than what XBO will land in the end (less than 100K?).
Atari Jaguar and Bandai/Apple Pippin performed worse than XBO in Japan.
Click to expand...

Wow thanks, didn't realise people had actually bought them over there.

Never heard of the Pippin, I'll go read up on that.
 
L

L~A

Member
AntMurda said:
I think a better comparison would be Tomodachi Collection (the first one). New IP, released 5 years into the NDS life, and slow start but legs got it to 3.5 million in Japan.

Miitopia is a more attractive product IMO. But I don't know if the 3DS user base has the same leg power potential at this point.
Click to expand...

Oh, I wasn't trying to compare Miitopia with Animal Crossing, just pointing out that it would need strong and long legs to catch up with FFXV LTD. As Chris pointed out, we'll have to wait until we have post-holiday sales to see where Miitopia will end.
 
O

Oregano

Member
If PS4 matches PS3 and Switch matches 3DS their combined sales will just about beat the original DS. There will be nothing to make up the sales of other stuff.
 
C

Celine

Member
system11 said:
Wow thanks, didn't realise people had actually bought them over there.

Never heard of the Pippin, I'll go read up on that.
Click to expand...
More 3DO units were shipped in Japan than outside it, probably because Panasonic was the major hardware backer.
I'm not surprised you never heard about Bandai Pippin, XBO is performing so bad in Japan that I had to scrap the bottom of the barrel to find something that did worse.
For instance Atari Jaguar distribution in Japan was pitiful and very niche (just 2K shipped in total).
 
V

viHuGi

Banned
dracula_x said:
from last year

japan_game_market_sizklj5d.jpg


&#8594; http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1066929
Click to expand...

So what just because mobile is bigger means that HW will die? With 3Ds and Ps4 pulling numbers like these and Switch on the horizon? Also Ps4 beating Ps3 best year?

I never understand logic of this posts, look in Football just because one or other team wins, does not mean the other go out of business you know lol Mobiles are huge in Asia/Japan, doesn´t mean Pc gaming or Console Gaming is going anywhere.
 
D

DarkLordMalik

Member
Oregano said:
If PS4 matches PS3 and Switch matches 3DS their combined sales will just about beat the original DS. There will be nothing to make up the sales of other stuff.
Click to expand...
Switch will be lucky to match half the sales of 3DS and PS4 will need a market that can survive until 2020 to sell 10 million like PS3.

The market isn't dyinf but it will keep shrinking. I don't see any upside here.
 
C

cheesekao

Member
Chris1964 said:
If you want to see collapse this quarter you just have to look at west. Things at December won't be better than November.
Click to expand...
Only if you look at it without context. Fallout 4, Black Ops 3 and Battlefront were huge. There's nothing comparable to that this year.
 
P

Psycho_Mantis

Banned
Alrus said:
I mean... A project 10 years in the making with insane amount of marketing tie-ins and expensive side projects. Do you honestly think Square Enix expects it to sell less than FF XIII?
Click to expand...

A bunch of hearsay is all this post is. Actual things we know about FFXV's dev cost were it being significantly less than something like GTAV which iirc is $120 million, though I can't remember if Tabata was talking dev cost only.
 
S

system11

Member
viHuGi said:
So what just because mobile is bigger means that HW will die?
Click to expand...

People see what they want to see, and we live in a world where people seem to need an extreme opinion on anything. People have been saying the CD is dead for over a decade now, guess what - still on the shop shelves. The fact that less are sold does not mean something is going to die. My favourite at the moment is actually currency markets, where something can CRASH or SOAR by as much as ... a cent.

I often get the sense that people /want/ proper gaming hardware sales to die, and I just don't understand that mentality.
 
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