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Media Create Sales: Week 51, 2016 (Dec 19 - Dec 25)

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
The certainity for everything you predict is astonishing.

I was gonna comment on that statement - but after the DQXI discussion ill just stay away. So much we dont know about Switch and how it will be run as a plattform or product family for the next couple years...then again we had people calling 3DS dead after 3 months on the market for no reason.
 

Oregano

Member
The certainity for everything you predict is astonishing.

Dead Japan is dead after all.

12 million would be quite pessimistic provided Nintendo doesn't completely fuck up(not impossible).

A bunch of hearsay is all this post is. Actual things we know about FFXV's dev cost were it being significantly less than something like GTAV which iirc is $120 million, though I can't remember if Tabata was talking dev cost only.

Congratulations it's less expensive than a game 99% of games are also less expensive than.
 

MacTag

Banned
Only if you look at it without context. Fallout 4, Black Ops 3 and Battlefront were huge. There's nothing comparable to that this year.
PS4 Slim, PS4 Pro and Xbox One S launched, yet hardware is still down YOY. It's not only software that dissapointed.
 

Oregano

Member
It's easier to have a growth when you start from the bottom. Also pretty sure that in global shipments PS4 is going to be up also yoy this year.

It's the PS4's third year which is often the peak year for a platform. It's the 3DS' fifth year when platforms are dying off.
 
Congratulations it's less expensive than a game 99% of games are also less expensive than.

No shit, but it seems such an obvious conclusion is above some, such as those who hilariously say stuff like FFXV needing 10 million to break even etc.

If that cost is true than FFXV has most likely already made bank with the initial shipment.
 

sense

Member
What ? How ? PS4 will never have a better lineup than it got in 2016.

i believe there will be more ps4 only releases next year than this year. if ff7r episode one makes it next year i can see it doing better than this year. if dragon quest 11 is not simultaneous with switch then i can see it pushing some good hardware numbers as well considering the difference between ps4 and 3ds versions. obviously the 3ds version will dominate software sales. dqx on ps4 will also build the audience on ps4 a little bit more.
 

MacTag

Banned
It's easier to have a growth when you start from the bottom. Also pretty sure that in global shipments PS4 is going to be up also yoy this year.
The bottom is that other handheld, I forget the name?

Only one system seems to be supply constrained this year in the west. Well, two if you count NES Classic.
 
i believe there will be more ps4 only releases next year than this year. if ff7r episode one makes it next year i can see it doing better than this year. if dragon quest 11 is not simultaneous with switch then i can see it pushing some good hardware numbers as well considering the difference between ps4 and 3ds versions. obviously the 3ds version will dominate software sales. dqx on ps4 will also build the audience on ps4 a little bit more.
I don't see FFVII next year but they can work out Heroes 3 or Builders 2 perhaps.

Maybe Horizon will sell as well as Witcher 3.
 

RPGamer92

Banned
i believe there will be more ps4 only releases next year than this year. if ff7r episode one makes it next year i can see it doing better than this year. if dragon quest 11 is not simultaneous with switch then i can see it pushing some good hardware numbers as well considering the difference between ps4 and 3ds versions. obviously the 3ds version will dominate software sales. dqx on ps4 will also build the audience on ps4 a little bit more.
KH3 and RDR2 could also push systems.
 

TheMoon

Member
The Mario Maker sales are annoying. I love the Wii U game but the 3DS version strips the feature that made it truly great (online level sharing). I kind of wish Nintendo were being punished for that so they realized it was a bad call but I guess not.

You misunderstood what Mario Maker 3DS actually is (or tbf, they mislead you on what it actually is).

It is the next 2D Mario, not Mario Maker 3DS. Also: JP = Handhelds > Consoles.

Thing is they didn't just port Mario Maker to 3DS, they made the next 2D Mario game and bolted the Mario editor onto it and branded it as a Mario Maker port for some reason.

People who skipped it thinking no online meant there was nothing to do are missing out on a stellar 2D Mario game here!
 
KH also isn't a system seller anymore. If you think FFXV's decline is bad just wait.
I don't expect anything from KH3. Especially not in Japan.

It will do great in the West though.

I don't expect any PS4 game to hit the million number in Japan either. Think FFXV will remain the peak unless there is an exclusive DQXII *laughs*
 

cheesekao

Member
That didn't seem to matter at launch. It makes a good excuse now for mid-cycle relaunch though I guess.
M8, the world isn't black and white. Also, whenever a big title releases in Japan, what do you see? A hardware boost. It's not an excuse. It's a perfectly valid reason.
 

Oregano

Member
No shit, but it seems such an obvious conclusion is above some, such as those who hilariously say stuff like FFXV needing 10 million to break even etc.

If that cost is true than FFXV has most likely already made bank with the initial shipment.

That's not how businesses operate. It's about opportunity cost and the potential profit. Bravely Second was probably profitable but it (likely) killed the franchise.
 
It's the PS4's third year which is often the peak year for a platform. It's the 3DS' fifth year when platforms are dying off.

PS4 2015 shipment - 9.4 million
PS4 2016 shipment - 9.8 million

You're missing the point. Comparing relative yoy increases for 3DS and PS4 walks over the fact that PS4 is shipping 17+ million annually while the 3DS is doing around 7.5 million annually.
 
That's not how businesses operate. It's about opportunity cost and the potential profit. Bravely Second was probably profitable but it (likely) killed the franchise.

Oh, is FFXV suddenly not going to make any more profit? I said from the initial shipment not LTD.
 

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
You misunderstood what Mario Maker 3DS actually is (or tbf, they mislead you on what it actually is).

It is the next 2D Mario, not Mario Maker 3DS. Also: JP = Handhelds > Consoles.

Eh its still Mario Maker - even though they added more Nintendo created levels to make up for the shortcomings compared to the WiiU version.

If this was the next real 2D Mario and on 3DS it would have sold even better. While popular the Maker games are still just spin-offs.
 

LordKano

Member
i believe there will be more ps4 only releases next year than this year. if ff7r episode one makes it next year i can see it doing better than this year. if dragon quest 11 is not simultaneous with switch then i can see it pushing some good hardware numbers as well considering the difference between ps4 and 3ds versions. obviously the 3ds version will dominate software sales. dqx on ps4 will also build the audience on ps4 a little bit more.

- FFVIIR will do worse than FFXV for sure.
- Dragon Quest XI is a simultaneous release for all three platforms, Horii stated.
- DQX is already available everywhere and won't help at all.

That also does not explain how you can think it's a better line-up than FFXV + Yakuza 6 + Dragon Quest Heroes 2 + Dragon Quest Builders + Persona 5 + Tales of Berseria + Dark Souls III
 

MacTag

Banned
I don't expect anything from KH3. Especially not in Japan.

It will do great in the West though.
I'm not so sure. Do kids have PS4s and Xbox Ones? I think people don't really understand exactly who bought all those KH games on PS2 in America.

M8, the world isn't black and white. Whenever a big title releases in Japan, what do you see? A hardware boost. It's not an excuse. It's a perfectly valid reason.
Yes, software pushes hardware. But new hardware also pushes hardware for successful platforms with full release schedules. When was the last time new models or upgraded models sold less than the previous year?
 

TheMoon

Member
Eh its still Mario Maker - even though they added more Nintendo created levels to make up for the shortcomings compared to the WiiU version.

If this was the next real 2D Mario and on 3DS it would have sold even better. While popular the Maker games are still just spin-offs.

Well yea, I'm overselling the "Next 2D Mario"-ness a bit of course but all I mean with that is that it's another full 2D Mario on the content and quality level.
 
PS4 2015 shipment - 9.4 million
PS4 2016 shipment - 9.8 million

You're missing the point. Comparing relative yoy increases for 3DS and PS4 walks over the fact that PS4 is shipping 17+ million annually while the 3DS is doing around 7.5 million annually.

those numbers are totally irrelevant for YoY comparisons and sales pattern over the lifetime of a product or product category
 
It's the PS4's third year which is often the peak year for a platform. It's the 3DS' fifth year when platforms are dying off.

Only system that compares favoribly to 3DS november sales this year in US from last gen is PSP. DS, PS3, X360 and Wii all had higher sales during their sixth november.

The bottom is that other handheld, I forget the name?

Only one system seems to be supply constrained this year in the west. Well, two if you count NES Classic.

I mean yes 3DS is selling better than Nintendos low expectations and therefore is supply constrained this year but that doesn't make those numbers that amazing. 550k in November in US is nothing to write home about and only looks good if you compare it to last years disaster numbers. PSVR is also supply constrained so with your logic it must be selling amazingly.
 
PS4 looking good.

Is it really that difficult to have reasonable discussion without the shallow, belittling posts? I mean, I genuinely feel Japan's market is in a poor place and that it is negatively impacting hardware and software across the board.

And yet, the retorts to that are "excuses" and "dead Japan is dead".

Surely, we can do better.
guess people really underestimated hardware sales more so with the ps4
100% under.

PS4 ain't stopping!
 

Toth

Member
FFXIII was the first million seller on PS3 and did double FFXV.

Considering how GTA V did open world isn't a limiting factor.

GTA did phenomenal on PS3 yes but everything seems to struggle selling even 500k on the PS4 for some reason.

And ouch at Last Guardian. Those numbers are really poor for such a long developed game, no?
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Wow at Super Mario Maker 3DS! 3DS and PS4 hardware is good too! :)


I see we're at Asia/West/digital saviors yet again. Do we really have to do this in every MC thread?
Why does it really matter though? Just a few comments about people speculating in sales and there arent much counter points other than speculation as well, i dont see why the sarcastic/complaining comments are necessary many times. Its not the only arguement that keeps being repeated a lot of times, others are about how the PS4 and 3DS hardware will do in the upcoming times for example.
 

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
Well yea, I'm overselling the "Next 2D Mario"-ness a bit of course but all I mean with that is that it's another full 2D Mario on the content and quality level.

Oh yeah you are right - thats. def. the reason why the game is selling so well. Its pretty much the current 2D Mario to get.
- Dragon Quest XI
- Final Fantasy VIIR Part 1
- Resident Evil 7

That alone already makes 2017 better than 2016.

Next year will also be the first time that the PS4 will have some real competition with the Switch - will be interesting to see how the sales evolve.
 

Oregano

Member
PS4 2015 shipment - 9.4 million
PS4 2016 shipment - 9.8 million

You're missing the point. Comparing relative yoy increases for 3DS and PS4 walks over the fact that PS4 is shipping 17+ million annually while the 3DS is doing around 7.5 million annually.

The 3DS wasn't just shipping 7.5 million in its third year though(even if it didn't reach PS4's height).

Oh, is FFXV suddenly not going to make any more profit? I said from the initial shipment not LTD.

Okay, I'm not quite sure what you are actually on about then. Fact of the matter is FFXV was probably more expensive to make and will sell less than FFXIII and in Japan specifically it's a massive drop off. That's not great anyway you look at it.
 

cheesekao

Member
Yes, software pushes hardware. But new hardware also pushes hardware for successful platforms with full release schedules. When was the last time new models or upgraded models sold less than the previous year?
Has it though? Earlier this year, the number of PS4's sold WW was 36 million. Sony plans to sell 20 million in their current fiscal year. They reached the 50 million milestone in November. With December and a few more months left, their target seems very reachable. Unless I'm mistaken, they did not sell 20 million PS4's in the last fiscal year.
 

LordKano

Member
- Dragon Quest XI
- Final Fantasy VIIR Part 1
- Kingdom Hearts 3
- Resident Evil 7

That alone already makes 2017 better than 2016.

- Multiplatform release that will have 75% on its sales on the other two platforms.
- Maybe the only big exclusive release for next year
- Won't do anything major
- lol

It's nothing compared to 2016.
 
- FFVIIR will do worse than FFXV for sure.
- Dragon Quest XI is a simultaneous release for all three platforms, Horii stated.
- DQX is already available everywhere and won't help at all.

That also does not explain how you can think it's a better line-up than FFXV + Yakuza 6 + Dragon Quest Heroes 2 + Dragon Quest Builders + Persona 5 + Tales of Berseria + Dark Souls III

I will take that bet that FFVIIR part 1 does better than FFXV.
Also if KH IP still has it selling power it would be a very big title.
Bigger than all those games but FF.
 

ethomaz

Banned
That not counting others titles like...

NiOh
NieR
Valkiria Revolution
Ys
GTS

2017 has way more releases for PS4 than 2016 in Japan... even if you count brand name it will be stronger.
 

MacTag

Banned
Only system that compares favoribly to 3DS november sales this year in US from last gen is PSP. DS, PS3, X360 and Wii all had higher sales during their sixth november.
This generation is proving more frontloaded in general. PS4's sixth November will also most likely be behind all those systems.

I mean yes 3DS is selling better than Nintendos low expectations and therefore is supply constrained this year but that doesn't make those numbers that amazing. 550k in November in US is nothing to write home about and only looks good if you compare it to last years disaster numbers. PSVR is also supply constrained so with your logic it must be selling amazingly.
If PSVR had any games dominating the charts I might agree. Unfortunately that platform seems pretty interest constrained despite the meager supply, plus it's a glorified peripheral and not really comparable to something like the complete 3DS sellout we're seeing.
 

Dee Dee

Member
I see everything has already been said and we're running in "did FFXV do badly?" and "is Japan doomed?" circles again.

So let me just add: Monster Hunter Stories really didn't do too well, huh?
 

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
That not counting others titles like...

NiOh
NieR
Valkiria Revolution
Ys
GTS

2017 has way more releases for PS4 than 2016 in Japan... even if you count brand name it will be bigger.

Those arent big releases though - Nioh could be a suprise hit ala Souls games but even then, those arent big system sellers.
 

Oregano

Member
I see everything has already been said and we're running in "did FFXV do badly?" and "is Japan doomed?" circles again.

So let me just add: Monster Hunter Stories really didn't do too well, huh?

It sold what they expect judging by the shipment./s
 

ethomaz

Banned
- Multiplatform release that will have 75% on its sales on the other two platforms.
- Maybe the only big exclusive release for next year
- Won't do anything major
- lol

It's nothing compared to 2016.
You can not like but the number of titles and brand power in 2017 is stronger than 2016 in Japan.

That not including possible others announces.
 
- FFVIIR will do worse than FFXV for sure.
- Dragon Quest XI is a simultaneous release for all three platforms, Horii stated.
- DQX is already available everywhere and won't help at all.

That also does not explain how you can think it's a better line-up than FFXV + Yakuza 6 + Dragon Quest Heroes 2 + Dragon Quest Builders + Persona 5 + Tales of Berseria + Dark Souls III

DQ11
FF7R
RE7
GTS
KH3

I see you belittling the other post when your 2015 list contains 4 multiplatform titles lmao

those numbers are totally irrelevant for YoY comparisons and sales pattern over the lifetime of a product or product category

Its called context. If you want to compare percentages, you should know base values. Puts things into perspective.
 
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