ethomaz
Banned
I listed the biggest sellers already... GTS is a bigger seller btw.
I don't know why people still thinks that FFXV is a bigger release than DQXI in Japan??? DQ is way stronger brand there.
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I don't know why people still thinks that FFXV is a bigger release than DQXI in Japan??? DQ is way stronger brand there.
Let me remind you that 2016 for PS4 was :
- Final Fantasy XV : new mainline FF
- Yakuza 6 : new mainline Yakuza
- Dark Souls III : new mainline DS
- Persona 5 : new mainline Persona
- Dragon Quest Heroes 2 : follow-up of a huge DQ spinoff
- Dragon Quest Builders : cross of two huge franchises (DQ and Minecraft, even if Horii don't want to admit it)
- Tales of Berseria : new mainline Tales of.
- New model of PS4 : slim
- New model of PS4 : Pro
- New highly-marketed accessory device : PSVR
And a lot of smaller title that I won't bother to list. Now, are you seriously expecting that FFVIIR and GTSports (the two biggest exclusive games of next year for PS4, and the only two big exclusive titles as of now) will be enough to beat all of this ? You're insane. Plus, it's not even accounting for the fact that the Switch will release next year and offer a fierce competition.
Unless something huge gets announced in the meantime, PS4 YTD in 2017 will be notably less than in 2016. You can quote me on this.
- Final Fantasy XV : new mainline FF
- Yakuza 6 : new mainline Yakuza
- Dark Souls III : new mainline DS
- Persona 5 : new mainline Persona
- Dragon Quest Heroes 2 : follow-up of a huge DQ spinoff
- Dragon Quest Builders : cross of two huge franchises (DQ and Minecraft, even if Horii don't want to admit it)
- Tales of Berseria : new mainline Tales of.
- New model of PS4 : slim
- New model of PS4 : Pro
- New highly-marketed accessory device : PSVR
And a lot of smaller title that I won't bother to list. Now, are you seriously expecting that FFVIIR and GTSports (the two biggest exclusive games of next year for PS4, and the only two big exclusive titles as of now) will be enough to beat all of this ? You're insane. Plus, it's not even accounting for the fact that the Switch will release next year and offer a fierce competition.
Unless something huge gets announced in the meantime, PS4 YTD in 2017 will be notably less than in 2016. You can quote me on this.
I dont think so - you know how well the last PS3 and PSP game sold ...right ?
Market for this type of games isnt what it used to be on PS1/PS2...
viir will do better than ffxv imo so we disagree on that
i know horii had said that previously. i said IF dq11 doesn't release on switch simultaneously then i can see it push some decent ps4 hardware. after the recent news i am starting to doubt it will be simultaneous but we shall see. jan 12 event will reveal all!!
like i said,there will be more ps4 ONLY releases next year. obviously a lot of these games are not major hardware movers but they should all provide boosts throughout the year. off the top of my head re7, ff12 remaster, gundam, hot shots, gt sport, dqx/xi maybe new tales, ni no kuni 2, most importantly
knack 2 
i am sure the price of the slim will further go down towards the end of the year which will also boost ps4 hardware.
ethomaz
Banned
Last PS3 game sold over 500k in Japan, no?
So yes it is big.
PS. No ni Kuni 2 is 2017 too???
ArkhamFantasy
Member
The assumption that VII remake or KH3 even coming out next year is a stretch.
I wont beleive it until the disc is in my hand.
I wont beleive it until the disc is in my hand.
hanspampel
Banned
i'm sure that person knows the total yearly sales for both 3ds and ps4 and did not want to talk about them, but rather the fact 3ds increased the yearly sales in year 5 of its life and that is very uncommon.
if you want to add context, you should talk about ps4 pro and the new way how console hardware is sold. and the old pattern of year 3 being peak sales probably not being true anymore.
time will tell
6 multiplatform titles. And you just listed 3-4 multiplatform games yourself so why are you belittling multiplats?
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Thank god you clarified DS3 was a new mainline DS xD
Let me dismiss your list like you did to the other:
- Maybe the only big exclusive release for next year
- Won't do anything major
- Won't do anything major
- Multiplatform
- Multiplatform and lol
- Multiplatform
- Multiplatform and lol
AquaWateria
Member
I have bad feeling Resident Evil 7 is gonna have a big decline in sales especially since its in first person.
I'd say it's pretty safe that at least KH3 will release next year.
Oh, I see. Not worth wasting my time.
Blackleg-sanji1
Banned
Yea but ni no kuni 2 will do better over in the west than Japan
GT6 was still a big drop and from the previous game...and had to crawl it way to +400k sales from what i remember. If the trend continues i dont see a GT Sports titles game performing better.
Ninokuni flopped on PS3 - doubt the second game will be a big seller. Then again i expect it to hit Switch as well..even then i dont expect it to be big in Japan.
Massively over shipped then. Famitsu puts sellthrough around 375k.
Just looked at 3DS sales more closely, and looks like it had its best Christmas week in years (2013, I believe?). Hopefully hiska-kun, Okami, or Chris can clarify with a graph?
What's more, sales for this week are up even without the 2DS, which is something I did not see coming at all (it's not like there was a price drop or anything).
Really looking forward to 2017 sales, will be pretty interesting.
What's more, sales for this week are up even without the 2DS, which is something I did not see coming at all (it's not like there was a price drop or anything).
Really looking forward to 2017 sales, will be pretty interesting.
ethomaz
Banned
Every time I do a 2016 vs 2017 list for PS4... 2017 lineup looks stronger.
Maybe I'm being blinded by my tastes but I'm talking brand appeal in Japan.
ethomaz
Banned
I remember Famitsu themselves showed 500k way before PS updated shipment.
I am sure that Square is at least targeting a 2017 release for the first episode of FFVII:R since next year is the game's 20th anniversary. Besides, the FF 30th Anniversary opening ceremony is taking place on the actual 20th anniversary (31st January) and I doubt that this is purely a coincidence. Maybe I am too optimistic, but we'll see.
agreed. it is a stretch but i can see them pushing for 2017 november/december release. whether they will make it is a whole another story lol. i can even see it being announced for that timeframe and then delayed!
Yeah, the new mode is pretty cool, and I'm kinda disappointed they didn't offer those new 100 levels + challenges to Wii U users, even if we need to pay for it... I hardly use my 3DS these days and I love my SMM (still using it to design and play levels) but I don't want to double dip if there's no new elements on the editor...
On topic, it's amazing how games like Mario Maker, Minecraft, Miitopia, Splatoon are bounding back. FFXV is doing good, hoping it reaches 1 million eventually. Great hardware numbers in general, except PS4 Pro. Bomba total IMO, can't believe the "stock problems" excuse anymore.
ethomaz
Banned
gundamkyoukai
Member
I expect that FFVIIR can match FFXV if it comes out .
KH3 somewhat also if still has it's IP power and come out and DQ11 is a wild card .
After that most of them are 300k to 500k series .
So with the games we know and depending on what comes out it can be rather even .
Blackleg-sanji1
Banned
I will sacrifice ffvii:R for kh3 releasing for its 15th anniversary.(yes I don't think for a sec both will be released the same year along with dq11).
Talking strictly Japan kh3 won't touch either of those games it would be a miracle if so
Well then no, you remember wrong. GT6 never passed 500k on Famitsu.
Price.
And you're in for a rude awakening wrt to your Switch expectations.
No more BC, no more dual screens, no more clamshell, expensive mechanical construction, expensive innards that will go unused in the portable use case. They will struggle hard to "upsell" 3DS users to a Switch, and they will struggle hard maintaining 3rd party traction.
ArkhamFantasy
Member
Doesnt look like it can fit in your pocket either. That could be a big factor in japan.
if marketed well with more disney stage/character focus it could surprise people.
i am sure there will be a handheld only switch hardware a year later so i think it will be fine in the long run.
Did I miss a crossover or something?
KillerMan91
Member
There is pretty much zero evidence of this regarding of home consoles. One weaker holiday season in US is not enough of evidence. If next year consoles are again down and no big game gets delayed (so RDR2, Destiny 2, Battlefront 2 and COD all hit the holiday season) you might have a case. It was top 3 software that dragged everything down this year in US (even NPD mentioned this).
Well 3DS is getting carried solely by new Pokemon games. It's not like its overall software catalogue has had some kind of huge resurgence. Nevertheless my point was that sellout doesn't always mean that the thing is flying off the shelves. You have to look at the numbers themselves. Yes it's doing better than last year but 550k in November in US is not really that amazing figure. Nice little late gen bump but nothing more.
Oops. A crossover would be cool tho.
KH3 is likely going to be around 500k, RE7 and GTS likely less. FFVIIR will be hurt by becoming a trilogy (I expect less than XV) and DQXI will be Nintendo loaded sales wise. Most of the other "amazing" 2017 PS4 lineup listed so far (Ni-Oh, Nier Auto, Ys VIII, NNK2, Valkyria Rev, Cold Steel 3, DQX, etc) will be under 300k, many far under.
gundamkyoukai
Member
I think the first part will sell more than FFXV because of nostalgia and other factors for eg ( PS4 user base being bigger )
I can see it being a trilogy effecting the other parts much more compare to the first .
i think the argument is that the software you mentioned combined with another price cut for ps4 slim will help the ps4 beat this years hardware total. software themselves are probably around what you mention.
ethomaz
Banned
It could be not Famitsu but your number is way outdated too.
GT6 received the Gold Prize in Japan for reached 500k in Dec 2014.... after that the sales were updated once:
Sep 15 2015: 590k
Are you saying they overshipped 90k more units without sell the 500k shipment???
Famitsu 376,432 is dated to Dec 2014... if you add digital you could have something over 400k for the 500k shipment... after that PD shipped (or sold digitally) more 90k. Famitsu lower seller in 2015 was 64.848... GT6 could be sold up to 60k in 2015.
I claim that massive over ship bullshit right here.
The Last One
Member
It seens people are underestimating the PS4 as they did last year saying the console would never match the PS3's best year.
Agree with you 100% here, but only on software, I still think 2017 PS4 will be strong too.
What are you talking about, everything about NPD hardware patterns shows this gen is frontloaded versus last gen. Vita and Wii U both died much earlier, 3DS tracked far behind DS despite holding on yet, PS4+XBO are still resting on their record breaking launches to remain ahead aligned versus 360+PS3 and while it's early we presently aren't seeing any indication VR/Pro/remodels are going to manage the mid-cycle reinvigoration we saw with Kinect/remodels last gen. Even with their insane launches we might see PS4+One fall behind 360+PS3 ltd aligned next year.
We're looking at a generation that's likely going back to 5-6 years I suspect. Last gen was an anomaly.
ethomaz
Banned
I think you are underestimating software sales for some games... GTS is the first PS4 GT and it will sell more than GT6 did... RE7 I expect to be a massive success in both critic, sales and wom... DQXI will sell gangbusters on PS4 (3DS too)... FFVIIR will sell more than FFXV.
TheMoon
Member
While I think that's the reason people should be buying it, I think it's more of a nice bonus and people are lucking into it.
This year had new hardware launches to inflate things too, next year won't. 2016 also had just as much support software outside the big hitters. I bet PS4 ends up with more 2016 games over 200k than 2017.
gundamkyoukai
Member
Next year will have price cuts on both systems .
Which can help off set those factors .
I think depending on how Pro does next year might help them be over this year by a small amount .
That is of course if slim PS4 don't crash hard .
Depending on how Switch is capable to attract home console potential buyers, I could see PS4 not doing well compared to PS3.
FalsettoVibe
Member
I'll quote you alright. First off, when was the last time a Nintendo console was fierce competition for Sony? Nintendo is not interested in competing with MS or Sony.
In regard to your list, sure all those things happened in 2016, but is any of it going away in 2017? All these things help to continually build interest in the console and to build its library. People buy consoles for value more often than what has "just come out".
Stuff that will release in 2017 will just add on to what has released since the console originally came out.
The Wii kicked MS and Sony's asses just a generation ago...