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[Bernoulli]

Living in the UK there seems to be a fair amount of political pressure on the CMA now, especially after the EU go ahead, last thing this Tory government wants is a case where the EU is open to business and we're not after Brexit.
I think the appeal goes through and the merger is accepted with the EU remedies in the end.

i'm from the UK and it's crazy there is a big cloud on the CMA building and the pressure is crazy

and i'm seeing alot of tech headquarters being evacuated with written over it closed for bussines

 

[Riky]

They never accepted the EU remedies in the first place. They prefer structural remedies over behavioral ones.

We'll see after the appeal, the pressure is mounting when the EU which this government took us out of due to red tape now is showing it has less red tape than you.
That's pretty embarrassing and I'm sure someone from number 11 is having a word with the CMA.

 

[Topher]

Living in the UK there seems to be a fair amount of political pressure on the CMA now, especially after the EU go ahead, last thing this Tory government wants is a case where the EU is open to business and we're not after Brexit.
I think the appeal goes through and the merger is accepted with the EU remedies in the end.

Good thing the CMA is independent then which effectively negates political pressure.

 

[DeepEnigma]

Living in the UK there seems to be a fair amount of political pressure on the CMA now, especially after the EU go ahead, last thing this Tory government wants is a case where the EU is open to business and we're not after Brexit.
I think the appeal goes through and the merger is accepted with the EU remedies in the end.

So... corruption/coercion is the angle. Why am I not surprised that some ardent would welcome that if it meant playing takeaway in favor of their brand.

 

[Riky]

Good thing the CMA is independent then which effectively negates political pressure.

Direct political pressure.

 

[Topher]

Direct political pressure.

Example?

 

[MasterCornholio]

Good thing the CMA is independent then which effectively negates political pressure.

I believe the PM commented on this already. Don't think it was in favor of Microsoft.

We'll see after the appeal, the pressure is mounting when the EU which this government took us out of due to red tape now is showing it has less red tape than you.
That's pretty embarrassing and I'm sure someone from number 11 is having a word with the CMA.

As for political pressure well the CMA isn't the government from my understanding. That's what makes them special in this case.

 

[DeepEnigma]

Good thing the CMA is independent then which effectively negates political pressure.

Or at least should be. This would be a first, but in current year, would not surprise me with how much overt corruption gets glossed over and moved onto the next 8 second news squirrel distraction.

 

[MasterCornholio]

Example?

The government arresting members of the CMA?

Don't know if the CMA did anything illegal.

 

[MasterCornholio]

Let me put it this way.

I don't believe Microsoft will do anything illegal to make the merger happen. If it does happen it will probably be due to a successful appeal and the CMA accepting new concessions.

 

[Pelta88]

Living in the UK there seems to be a fair amount of political pressure on the CMA now, especially after the EU go ahead, last thing this Tory government wants is a case where the EU is open to business and we're not after Brexit.
I think the appeal goes through and the merger is accepted with the EU remedies in the end.

If in this case "Pressure" means an influx of influencers and alt accounts on forums / socials, then yeah. Otherwise, none of what you're reporting is actually taking place.

Your entire post in fantasy.

 

[Riky]

I believe the PM commented on this already. Don't think it was in favor of Microsoft.



As for political pressure well the CMA isn't the government from my understanding. That's what makes them special in this case.

They aren't, but their remit comes from the Government, Sunak has said they will "steer" them just after they blocked the deal.

Smarter regulation unveiled to cut red tape and grow the economy

Initial package of regulatory reform will reduce unnecessary regulation for businesses, cutting costs and allowing them to compete

www.gov.uk

 

[Topher]

They aren't, but their remit comes from the Government, Sunak has said they will "steer" them just after they blocked the deal.

Smarter regulation unveiled to cut red tape and grow the economy

Initial package of regulatory reform will reduce unnecessary regulation for businesses, cutting costs and allowing them to compete

www.gov.uk

The PM provides a "strategic steer" for the CMA every single year. That is not a response to CMA's finding.

 

[Riky]

The PM provides a "strategic steer" for the CMA every single year. That is not a response to CMA's finding.

I think the timing of it was.

 

[MasterCornholio]

They aren't, but their remit comes from the Government, Sunak has said they will "steer" them just after they blocked the deal.

Smarter regulation unveiled to cut red tape and grow the economy

Initial package of regulatory reform will reduce unnecessary regulation for businesses, cutting costs and allowing them to compete

www.gov.uk

I don't see how this makes a reference to ABK.

 

[Riky]

I don't see how this makes a reference to ABK.

It couldn't as that would be direct political pressure.
The timing is more interesting.

 

[TheRedRiders]

Living in the UK there seems to be a fair amount of political pressure on the CMA now, especially after the EU go ahead, last thing this Tory government wants is a case where the EU is open to business and we're not after Brexit.
I think the appeal goes through and the merger is accepted with the EU remedies in the end.

Not really sure where you're getting this "information" from, an odd one or two news articles about the UK government and the CMA is just noise at best.

The Tory cabinet have bigger fish to fry, BoJo's just been referred to police because he allegedly broke lockdown rules, as well as Braverman's immigration policies, all of which are making front page headlines.

From what I can see almost no one seems to care about the CMA's decision, the fact that the CMA have been doubling down on their stance since they announced they were blocking the deal already says enough.

 

[DeepEnigma]

The PM provides a "strategic steer" for the CMA every single year. That is not a response to CMA's finding.

Didn't they come out and say they agreed with the CMA and keeping Big Tech in check such as that? It's in this thread, and always the last paragraph that is ironically never quoted in here, but someone quoted it.

 

[Heisenberg007]

Living in the UK there seems to be a fair amount of political pressure on the CMA now, especially after the EU go ahead, last thing this Tory government wants is a case where the EU is open to business and we're not after Brexit.
I think the appeal goes through and the merger is accepted with the EU remedies in the end.

Both EU and UK are open for business. Neither is kicking Microsoft or ABK out of the country.

 

[Kilau]

It couldn't as that would be direct political pressure.
The timing is more interesting.

My cup of hopium runneth over.

 

[Topher]

I think the timing of it was.

It wasn't. And the steer itself reinforces the CMA's independence and doubles down on the upcoming Digital Markets Competition and Consumer Bill that will allow CMA to impose penalties up to 10% of worldwide turnover against those who are in breach of their rulings.

Nothing in this steer is specific to the ABK acquisition. I get the sense that some out there like that Florian Mueller nitwit are trying to pretend it is a rebuke of the CMA. It isn't. Not even close.

Draft strategic steer to the Competition and Markets Authority, 2023

www.gov.uk

 

[Calverz]

From what I’m seeing, even if the CMA decision is upheld, Microsoft will still go ahead with the merger and simply leave abk out of uk or something. Which would mean effectively everywhere would get cod etc on gamepass and the UK wouldn’t.

 

[Heisenberg007]

The problem it's that MS could already have filed an appeal but it could take weeks or months to be showed in public.

Not necessarily. Given how everything has gone so far, I'm 99% confident that Microsoft folks would tweet that they have filed an appeal to CAT and fully expect the CMA's decision to be reversed by CAT.

That'd help them control the narrative for a while and keep the shareholders supplied with positive news.

 

[DeepEnigma]

Both EU and UK are open for business. Neither is kicking Microsoft or ABK out of the country.

UK Prime Minister Spokesperson Denies Microsoft's Claim That CMA Decision Is 'Bad for Britain' - IGN

The spokesperson for UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has retaliated against the president of Microsoft's comments that the Competitions and Markets Authority's (CMA) decision over Xbox's Activision Blizzard deal is "bad for Britain".

www.ign.com

The spokesperson for UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has retaliated against the president of Microsoft's comments that the Competitions and Markets Authority's (CMA) decision over Xbox's Activision Blizzard deal is "bad for Britain".

Speaking to Reuters, the spokesperson for Prime Minister Sunak said this statement was false. "Those sorts of claims are not borne out by the facts," they said, noting that the UK would continue to engage with Microsoft but the CMA is independent.

The CMA's chief executive Sarah Cardell also refuted Smith's claims, reiterating what the competition regulator said in its final verdict.

"I think this decision shows actually how important it is to support competition in the UK and that the UK is absolutely open for business," she said. "We want to create an environment where a whole host of different companies can compete effectively, can grow, and innovate."

 

[Topher]

From what I’m seeing, even if the CMA decision is upheld, Microsoft will still go ahead with the merger and simply leave abk out of uk or something. Which would mean effectively everywhere would get cod etc on gamepass and the UK wouldn’t.

Where ever you are seeing that, it isn't true. The CMA has prohibited the merger. MS will not be allowed to own even a portion of ABK.

 

[Heisenberg007]

From what I’m seeing, even if the CMA decision is upheld, Microsoft will still go ahead with the merger and simply leave abk out of uk or something. Which would mean effectively everywhere would get cod etc on gamepass and the UK wouldn’t.

No, that's the Twitterati narrative. The law is very clear that this cannot happen.

If Microsoft bypasses the CMA, the CMA will fine Microsoft 10% of the global annual revenue, every year. And that amounts to $20 billion every year.

Worst case scenario, Microsoft is forced to leave the UK. And it won't just be ABK games on Game Pass or Xbox. It'll be Microsoft in its entirety.

 

[DeepEnigma]

Where ever you are seeing that, it isn't true. The CMA has prohibited the merger. MS will not be allowed to own even a portion of ABK.

Fosstard,

 

[Calverz]

Where ever you are seeing that, it isn't true. The CMA has prohibited the merger. MS will not be allowed to own even a portion of ABK.

Isn’t that for uk operations only though. I don’t know. I’m seeing a lot of this chatter on Twitter etc. it seems strange to me that the CMA can entirely block an acquisition of an American company by another American company.

 

[SixPin]

Living in the UK there seems to be a fair amount of political pressure on the CMA now, especially after the EU go ahead, last thing this Tory government wants is a case where the EU is open to business and we're not after Brexit.
I think the appeal goes through and the merger is accepted with the EU remedies in the end.

Literally today a London startup announced a 250M investment round. You don't see them everyday in Europe.

London is and for the forseeable future will be the biggest tech hub in Europe. The "closed" for business is Microsoft and Activision PR.

The EU is preparing to open an investigation into Azure, we'll see if Brad Smith still believes that it's the best place to invest!

 

[DeepEnigma]

No, that's the Twitterati narrative.

I’m seeing a lot of this chatter on Twitter etc

That is why it's important not to curate your twitterverse into a bubble.

 

[Calverz]

No, that's the Twitterati narrative. The law is very clear that this cannot happen.

If Microsoft bypasses the CMA, the CMA will fine Microsoft 10% of the global annual revenue, every year. And that amounts to $20 billion every year.

Worst case scenario, Microsoft is forced to leave the UK. And it won't just be ABK games on Game Pass or Xbox. It'll be Microsoft in its entirety.

I can’t ever see that happening. I’m sure the tories aren’t that dumb to think Microsoft would abandon British shores lol

 

[Pelta88]

Not really sure where you're getting this "information" from, an odd one or two news articles about the UK government and the CMA is just noise at best.

The Tory cabinet have bigger fish to fry, BoJo's just been referred to police because he allegedly broke lockdown rules, as well as Braverman's immigration policies, all of which are making front page headlines.

From what I can see almost no one seems to care about the CMA's decision, the fact that the CMA have been doubling down on their stance since they announced they were blocking the deal already says enough.

All factual but the bolded needs to be pinned.

 

[Calverz]

That is why it's important not to curate your twitterverse into a bubble.

Who said I was? That’s why I have brought it up in here.

 

[DeepEnigma]

I can’t ever see that happening. I’m sure the tories aren’t that dumb to think Microsoft would abandon British shores lol

I would hope not, but if some of them have new vacation homes and Ferrari's soon...

 

[Heisenberg007]

I can’t ever see that happening. I’m sure the tories aren’t that dumb to think Microsoft would abandon British shores lol

Exactly. It's just a stupid fantasy by some fanboys. Neither UK wants to kick Microsoft nor Microsoft can afford to leave the UK.

Considering the CMA has blocked the acquisition, Microsoft is left with only two options:

1. File an appeal if they have solid grounds. The statistical probability of getting the decision reversed is less than 5%. There are many more complications involved with this strategy, however, e.g., getting ABK shareholders to sign off the acquisition once again, who will demand an even higher price this time.
2. Or abandon the deal.

 

[Topher]

Isn’t that for uk operations only though. I don’t know. I’m seeing a lot of this chatter on Twitter etc. it seems strange to me that the CMA can entirely block an acquisition of an American company by another American company.

Yeah, but that's pretty much how it works if MS wants to continue operations in the UK. Prohibiting acquisition means just that. Microsoft's only hope is having the case returned to the CMA on grounds detailed in the appeal. They can maneuver their way around this.

 

[Calverz]

Considering the CMA has blocked the acquisition, Microsoft is left with only two options:

1. File an appeal if they have solid grounds. The statistical probability of getting the decision reversed is less than 5%. There are many more complications involved with this strategy, however, e.g., getting ABK shareholders to sign off the acquisition once again, who will demand an even higher price this time.
2. Or abandon the deal.

I was seeing a success rate of 10-15%.

 

[MasterCornholio]

It couldn't as that would be direct political pressure.
The timing is more interesting.

What timing? Unless it directly references this deal I don't see how it indicates that the government will change the CMAs mind on this.

 

[Calverz]

Yeah, but that's pretty much how it works if MS wants to continue operations in the UK. Prohibiting acquisition means just that. Microsoft's only hope is having the case returned to the CMA on grounds detailed in the appeal. They can maneuver their way around this.

Maybe they will go thermonuclear on this then. I’ll be given a shitty Chromebook for work as a result lmao

 

[MasterCornholio]

Isn’t that for uk operations only though. I don’t know. I’m seeing a lot of this chatter on Twitter etc. it seems strange to me that the CMA can entirely block an acquisition of an American company by another American company.

They can if the American company included the CMA in its sec filing. You forgot who made the CMA a requirement for this to go through.

 

[Thirty7ven]

I guess I shouldn’t be surprised that some people are now reading politicians statements for what they aren’t. This whole story is a fart in the wind for number 10. It’s videogames.

 

[DeepEnigma]

I guess I shouldn’t be surprised that some people are now reading politicians statements for what they aren’t. This whole story is a fart in the wind for number 10. It’s videogames.

National Security™ fractures over Call of Dooty!

 

[Calverz]

They can if the American company included the CMA in its sec filing. You forgot who made the CMA a requirement for this to go through.

Saying I forgot is putting it kindly. I don’t have a fuckin clue mate!

 

[Topher]

I was seeing a success rate of 10-15%.

I think their success rate of actually reversing a merger finding is closer to 0. Chances are high, imo, that the CMA will identify at least one of the highlighted grounds that Microsoft submits for reconsideration. But chances of it resulting in the merger moving forward is probably very low.

In this post, Gaz, who is a big Xbox guy on twitter (if you don't know him) but also a solicitor, has a M&A lawyer on his show to discuss the case. He lays it out very well. Worth a listen. It is timestamped where they begin talking about the merger.

Gaz had a M&A UK lawyer on his weekly podcast. Not some pretend TV expert. He was asked about what can Microsoft do. @Kenshin775 you should watch this.





Effectively, this acquisitions fate is in the hands of the CAT. If the CAT sends this back to the CMA then CMA will have to address the issue and Microsoft can then offer new remedies. That's it. None of this bullshit about creating some other company or carving out cloud will work.

 

[Banjo64]

Living in the UK there seems to be a fair amount of political pressure on the CMA now, especially after the EU go ahead, last thing this Tory government wants is a case where the EU is open to business and we're not after Brexit.
I think the appeal goes through and the merger is accepted with the EU remedies in the end.

I too live in the UK and apart from a few politicians and a paid shill publicly commenting in the wake of Microsoft’s chimp out I have no idea what you are talking about.

In fact the highest level of government have backed the CMA and now it’s yesterday’s chip paper.

 

[MasterCornholio]

Saying I forgot is putting it kindly. I don’t have a fuckin clue mate!

Well according to the sec finding these are the regulators that have to approve the acquisition for it to go though.

CMA
EC
FTC
CHINA

 

[DJ12]

Worth pointing out to those jumping back in the thread regurgitating old news like it's just come out and going over stuff previous shills have already brought up several times.

Microsoft in their infinite wisdom had it written into the deal that it requires CMA approval.

There is no way on earth this deal goes through without it. MS would need to go back to the table with Activision and thrash out a new deal that removes them from the UK. They cannot just decide now the CMA has said no, they can just make the deal anyway and ignore the uk.

It's on the filing. This deal is dead without CMA approval. There is no reality where MS just carry on and stop selling in the UK, even if they were actually that retarded.

It's also pretty funny massive xbox fans from the UK want this to happen.

Good luck supporting the brand when they cannot sell you anything. All these 'loopholes' such as just selecting another region will soon be blocked off.

 

[Topher]

Worth pointing out to those jumping back in the thread regurgitating old news like it's just come out and going over stuff previous shills have already brought up several times.

Microsoft in their infinite wisdom had it written into the deal that it requires CMA approval.

There is no way on earth this deal goes through without it. MS would need to go back to the table with Activision and thrash out a new deal that removes them from the UK. They cannot just decide now the CMA has said no, they can just make the deal anyway and ignore the uk.

It's on the filing. This deal is dead without CMA approval. There is no reality where MS just carry on and stop selling in the UK, even if they were actually that retarded.

It's also pretty funny massive xbox fans from the UK want this to happen.

Good luck supporting the brand when they cannot sell you anything. All these 'loopholes' such as just selecting another region will soon be blocked off.

True, but it also needs to be pointed out that if Microsoft and ABK agree then they can rewrite that document.

 

[X-Wing]

True, but it also needs to be pointed out that if Microsoft and ABK agree then they can rewrite that document.

Wouldn't that require for them to submit the deal for review again in all other regions? That would be like a new deal after all.

 

[DeepEnigma]

Worth pointing out to those jumping back in the thread regurgitating old news like it's just come out and going over stuff previous shills have already brought up several times.

Microsoft in their infinite wisdom had it written into the deal that it requires CMA approval.

There is no way on earth this deal goes through without it. MS would need to go back to the table with Activision and thrash out a new deal that removes them from the UK. They cannot just decide now the CMA has said no, they can just make the deal anyway and ignore the uk.

It's on the filing. This deal is dead without CMA approval. There is no reality where MS just carry on and stop selling in the UK, even if they were actually that retarded.

It's also pretty funny massive xbox fans from the UK want this to happen.

Good luck supporting the brand when they cannot sell you anything. All these 'loopholes' such as just selecting another region will soon be blocked off.

CMA also locked MS out from drawing a new purchase contract for 10 years. They then laid stricter rules where Activision and MS are not allowed to invest in each other as well.

True, but it also needs to be pointed out that if Microsoft and ABK agree then they can rewrite that document.

They are still exempt from UK, no? Excluding the CMA does not get them into the UK as far as I understand.