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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?

  • Yes, will be approved without changes.

    Votes: 221 24.9%

  • Yes, will be approved but with structural changes to ABK.

    Votes: 102 11.5%

  • Yes, will be approved but only with behavioral concessions.

    Votes: 262 29.6%

  • No, will not be approved.

    Votes: 301 34.0%
  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
Status
Not open for further replies.
MasterCornholio

MasterCornholio

Member
Clear said:
On the subject of contractors, just consider for a moment the complexity that gets added trying to recruit people to work on a project using a bespoke engine and toolchain like, for example, Halo Infinite.

You need to not only hire new talent, you have to train them up on the intricacies of the tech being used. This takes time and focus, as does the overall weight on the team to meticulously document its current state and methodologies just in case a core team member leaves taking that knowledge with them.

This is why standardized third-party engines are so appealing; you have a much larger pool of potential candidates who are already close or at speed on the toolchain.
Click to expand...

Also I don't know how much this matters but some say that building up culture in a developer is pretty important. If you have a team that's worked together for years its a lot easier for them to coordinate and accomplish tasks. But have people change often and that doesn't really build up.
 
MasterCornholio

MasterCornholio

Member
feynoob said:


Shocked Genie GIF
Click to expand...


The deal will close?

Thought that was uncertain at the moment.
 
Varteras

Varteras

Member
MasterCornholio said:
I'm not expecting them to. They are ones blocking it so if anything changes they will let us know.
Click to expand...

It's part of the contract. Microsoft and ABK are both obligated to show public support. Having a positive, optimistic tone about the fate of the deal is a must. Both companies are dancing with each other with knives hidden behind their backs. Which they both know are there. Because there is a $3 billion paycheck on the line. If either of them falters, that could be used against the other should they go to court if Microsoft refuses to pay out. Which can and does happen.
 
MasterCornholio

MasterCornholio

Member
Varteras said:
It's part of the contract. Microsoft and ABK are both obligated to show public support. Having a positive, optimistic tone about the fate of the deal is a must. Both companies are dancing with each other with knives hidden behind their backs. Which they both know are there. Because there is a $3 billion paycheck on the line. If either of them falters, that could be used against the other should they go to court if Microsoft refuses to pay out. Which can and does happen.
Click to expand...

That makes complete sense. If Microsoft shows signs of dropping the deal ABK could use it against them. Also ABK won't say anything negative because they want that 3 billion from them.
 
Dick Jones

Dick Jones

Banned
Astray said:
People who talk about ringfencing or carving out the UK portion of Activision business, here is the #1 reason that will never ever happen: The financial loss would be insane!

Giphy's pricetag went from $400m to $53m!!!!

Click to expand...

Giphy fucking sucked.
Now OCP are still looking for backers for Milfy [a website where you can share GIFs of MILFs]. Any amount is appreciated. Funding is rocky at the moment and because of this the MILFs had to sell their homes and move in with their stepsons.

Varteras said:
As of 7 days ago, they hadn't yet. If they still didn't, it may be because their lawyers advised them that the whole matter is pointless.
Click to expand...
Or maybe Microsoft sacked the lawyers dealing with this after 18 months, and are trying to bring the new lawyers up to speed in line with work practices.
 
Heisenberg007

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
MasterCornholio said:
That makes complete sense. If Microsoft shows signs of dropping the deal ABK could use it against them. Also ABK won't say anything negative because they want that 3 billion from them.
Click to expand...
The second one is correct; the first one doesn't matter.

If Microsoft shows signs of dropping the deal, ABK can't do any more damage to Microsoft than it already has incurred. Microsoft will have to pay $3 billion whether they keep the positive tone or the negative one.

However, if ABK shows negative signs, Microsoft can use that against ABK in an attempt to not pay the $3 billion penalty.
 
SixPin

SixPin

Neo Member
It wouldn't be smart for MS to drop the deal right now. They are better waiting till July while they get some approvals which is good PR to frame the CMA as the "bad" regulator. But it's interesting how they haven't announced an extension yet, roughly one month later.
 
MasterCornholio

MasterCornholio

Member
SixPin said:
It wouldn't be smart for MS to drop the deal right now. They are better waiting till July while they get some approvals which is good PR to frame the CMA as the "bad" regulator. But it's interesting how they haven't announced an extension yet, roughly one month later.
Click to expand...

I think its unlikely that they will dodge the U.K.

We will find out soon enough what they want to do with this.
 
SixPin

SixPin

Neo Member
MasterCornholio said:
I think its unlikely that they will dodge the U.K.

We will find out soon enough what they want to do with this.
Click to expand...
No they won't dodge the UK, what I mean is that every approval they get is free PR, even if it means nothing in the end because they can't proceed without the UK's approval.
 
XesqueVara

XesqueVara

Member
Heisenberg007 said:
I got lazy and asked Bing (ChatGPT-4) about the last date for Microsoft to file an appeal on CAT.

w9LHQZy.jpg


Apparently, tomorrow is the last date, and Microsoft still hasn't filed an appeal or filed for an extension.

fR5CT1r.jpg
Click to expand...
The problem it's that MS could already have filed an appeal but it could take weeks or months to be showed in public.
 
Astray

Astray

Member
SixPin said:
It wouldn't be smart for MS to drop the deal right now. They are better waiting till July while they get some approvals which is good PR to frame the CMA as the "bad" regulator. But it's interesting how they haven't announced an extension yet, roughly one month later.
Click to expand...
Tomorrow is the deadline for CMA appeal iirc. We will know most of what we need to know from there + whatever happens on July 18th.
 
X-Wing

X-Wing

Member
XesqueVara said:
The problem it's that MS could already have filed an appeal but it could take weeks or months to be showed in public.
Click to expand...
That's also what I think, although I think Microsoft would be very loud about it as they have been about everything else. So I don't know...
 
PaintTinJr

PaintTinJr

Member
Heisenberg007 said:
I got lazy and asked Bing (ChatGPT-4) about the last date for Microsoft to file an appeal on CAT.

w9LHQZy.jpg


Apparently, tomorrow is the last date, and Microsoft still hasn't filed an appeal or filed for an extension.

fR5CT1r.jpg
Click to expand...
I suspect we'll know on the 25th, because they have to keep ATVI informed, and the second ATVI can officially claim the deal is dead and the $3b is theirs - to inform their shareholders - allowing them freedom to follow up their renegotiation obligations to PlayStation for CoD marketing, we are going to hear about it quickly IMO.
 
Last edited:
Astray

Astray

Member
I fully expect an appeal to be announced tomorrow (or at the very least an extension request), it's simply a no-lose proposition to file an appeal. Worst case scenario is they realize an appeal isn't gonna work by July 18th and take it back.

Compared to the potential cost of not filing an appeal on time, it's simply a no-brainer.
 
Bernoulli

Bernoulli

M2 slut
Varteras said:
It's part of the contract. Microsoft and ABK are both obligated to show public support. Having a positive, optimistic tone about the fate of the deal is a must. Both companies are dancing with each other with knives hidden behind their backs. Which they both know are there. Because there is a $3 billion paycheck on the line. If either of them falters, that could be used against the other should they go to court if Microsoft refuses to pay out. Which can and does happen.
Click to expand...
Reminder:

But some of the statements from MS/ABK these days remind me of the ones from Nvidia/ARM in very late January 2022, when they said that they were expecting the acquisition to be approved (the FTC blocked it in December 2021). Then, 10 days later (early February 2022) they announced that the deal was abandoned (and in that case the outside date was September 2022, 2 years since the announcement).

You can even start to see the first sings of doubt with the statements from Booby Kotick yesterday or on Wednesday, as well as the report from Bloomberg about MS/Phil Spencer.
 
PaintTinJr

PaintTinJr

Member
Astray said:
I fully expect an appeal to be announced tomorrow (or at the very least an extension request), it's simply a no-lose proposition to file an appeal. Worst case scenario is they realize an appeal isn't gonna work by July 18th and take it back.

Compared to the potential cost of not filing an appeal on time, it's simply a no-brainer.
Click to expand...
That isn't true IMO. The KC they are using has a responsibility to the bar to not file frivolous appeals with courts such as the CAT, because as a barrister they are advocates of the courts.

The high profile nature of their legal representation is a double edged sword in that situation IMO, because it would be a lesser insult to the CAT/CMA and the bar for a less experienced barrister to make accusations of procedural, legal or irrationality in the CMA's work for an appeal with no basis, than a prominent one like the one they've retained.
 
NickFire

NickFire

Member
Bernoulli said:
The comments :messenger_tears_of_joy:
Click to expand...

I think some people genuinely believe MS would carve out both US and UK to give them free Diablo and COD in other countries. :messenger_tears_of_joy:

Say what you want about their ability (or lack thereof) to make awesome games, but no one can deny that MS can cultivate a passionate following with the best of them.
 
Bernoulli

Bernoulli

M2 slut
Astray said:
I fully expect an appeal to be announced tomorrow (or at the very least an extension request), it's simply a no-lose proposition to file an appeal. Worst case scenario is they realize an appeal isn't gonna work by July 18th and take it back.

Compared to the potential cost of not filing an appeal on time, it's simply a no-brainer.
Click to expand...
for me it's smarter to give up now, you are going to pay 3 billions anyway
and the bad news will be forgotten with the 11 june showcase
if they wait until after the showcase and announce the bad news everyone will forget the 11 june
 
splattered

splattered

Member
Ok so... absolutely amazing PS showcase tomorrow followed by Microsoft's official announcement that they are moving forward with the purchase acquisition of Activision Blizzard somehow despite the CMA's decision. That's what i wanna see. In that order. haha
 
MasterCornholio

MasterCornholio

Member
splattered said:
Ok so... absolutely amazing PS showcase tomorrow followed by Microsoft's official announcement that they are moving forward with the purchase acquisition of Activision Blizzard somehow despite the CMA's decision. That's what i wanna see. In that order. haha
Click to expand...

I'm not sure how they can make the purchase without the appeal. There are consequences for not taking the CMA seriously.
 
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Riky

Riky

$MSFT
Living in the UK there seems to be a fair amount of political pressure on the CMA now, especially after the EU go ahead, last thing this Tory government wants is a case where the EU is open to business and we're not after Brexit.
I think the appeal goes through and the merger is accepted with the EU remedies in the end.
 
MasterCornholio

MasterCornholio

Member
Riky said:
Living in the UK there seems to be a fair amount of political pressure on the CMA now, especially after the EU go ahead, last thing this Tory government wants is a case where the EU is open to business and we're not after Brexit.
I think the appeal goes through and the merger is accepted with the EU remedies in the end.
Click to expand...

They never accepted the EU remedies in the first place. They prefer structural remedies over behavioral ones.
 
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