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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


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Topher

Identifies as young
So where folks (youtubers) are saying this case decides it, should they be saying, if the FTC wins it's over, but if they lose, it's not over?

Microsoft said that the deal would be dead if the injunction is granted. But really, these lawyers seem to make every little thing out to be a life or death decision. I don't think Microsoft is going to lay over due to any temporary injunction.
 
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gothmog

Gold Member
Most of us are just as confused as the rest of you. Granting extra days for the preliminary injunction means victory because Microsoft said it would be determined by this injunction hearing? I imagine it being shut down kills the deal as it pushes it past the deadline. That doesn't mean Microsoft can close if the injunction is denied. I think their lawyers are playing some kind of complex game of telephone and hope that nobody calls them out on it.
 
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Jigsaah

Gold Member
First, there is a push for reforms in the US government to grant more power to the FTC. That's been Khan's primary goal. To show convincing evidence that the FTC is too weak to do its job and needs more autonomy. She'll take wins if she can get them, but she stills wins for losing.

MS signaling to close the deal before the deadline regardless is what prompted this. The FTC will try to have a court ordered block. Because, as I said, it is easier to get a block in advance than try to convince a US judge to undo an acquisition. They wouldn't be relying purely on the UK to undo it.

Without a renegotiation with ABK to extend the deadline, and since the CAT hearings don't start until a week after the deadline, with a decision not promised swiftly, the only option MS has to close the deal before then, as I said, is to violate the terms of the contract and, more importantly, UK law.

What people have noted is that a renegotiation, if it were going to happen, would have likely already happened. Probably a month ago. MS acting like this signals that those negotiations didn't go well. That a new deal isn't happening. Because if it was going well and they got an extension, Microsoft could spend a bunch of time in appeals to push this through. Maybe years.
OHhhhhh ok, so losing constantly basically provides evidence that the FTC need more power. Ok that makes sense.

So the CAT hearings is like the appeal process for the CMA. CAT could recommend they change their argument, which doesn't necessarily mean Microsoft and ABK win the appeal because the CMA could make the adjustments and still block it, which basically means it only leaves Microsoft and ABK with the nuclear option, to go forward without the CMA essentially violating UK law.

If Microsoft does this, I assume there's legal battles and possibly more court orders to keep the deal from closing?

So what's with all the pressure the CMA has been getting from the government. The best I can describe what I've seen is the UK doesn't want to look like they aren't willing to do business. How much pressure is this, especially given this notion that the CMA will be "empowered" soon? That makes me think the onversation with the government went the CMA's way....
 

Varteras

Member
Ohhh ok, there's a lot here. But I think it's becoming clearer.

So I've watched youtubers, financial news (stock market news) and GAF. That's pretty much the extent of it. I don't know shit about law. So I'll put that disclaimer out there. That's why I ask questions.

Ok so it sounds like the CMA may or may not have inaccurate data about the Cloud numbers I assume.

Some people think that, and Microsoft will try to argue that, but the CMA is convinced that it has the right outlook. Of note, the CAT judge made it clear during the initial hearing that he is not a fool to what Microsoft is attempting to do by backfilling data that they had the chance to give the CMA many months ago.

So where folks (youtubers) are saying this case decides it, should they be saying, if the FTC wins it's over, but if they lose, it's not over?

It's over because Microsoft would then have to fight a two-front court war in both the US and UK if they try to force it through. There is still a small chance of renegotiation before the deadline but if the FTC blocks it before then, the feeling is that there is no way that ABK will agree because if you lose to the FTC, you have fuck all of a chance against the CMA.

Seems like the temporary block is a small victory. I think they said they got like 5 days to come up with their aarguments or something, and then the trial begins on June 22nd? Is this trial likely to last a week? Months? Years?

The hearings will last about a week. No idea on WHEN a decision will come from them. The block is small victory but not what they're going for at all.
 

Ogbert

Member
So the CAT hearings is like the appeal process for the CMA. CAT could recommend they change their argument, which doesn't necessarily mean Microsoft and ABK win the appeal because the CMA could make the adjustments and still block it, which basically means it only leaves Microsoft and ABK with the nuclear option, to go forward without the CMA essentially violating UK law.
As I understand it, the main argument MS is making to the CAT is that CAM used a fundamentally incorrect definition of the cloud market and this mistake led them to reaching an incorrect conclusion.
 

Jigsaah

Gold Member
As I understand it, the main argument MS is making to the CAT is that CAM used a fundamentally incorrect definition of the cloud market and this mistake led them to reaching an incorrect conclusion.
I see, so if then given a proper understanding of the cloud market...CMA could just say "Yea, this doesn't change anything".

Seems like CMA has all the power here.
 

Varteras

Member
OHhhhhh ok, so losing constantly basically provides evidence that the FTC need more power. Ok that makes sense.

So the CAT hearings is like the appeal process for the CMA. CAT could recommend they change their argument, which doesn't necessarily mean Microsoft and ABK win the appeal because the CMA could make the adjustments and still block it, which basically means it only leaves Microsoft and ABK with the nuclear option, to go forward without the CMA essentially violating UK law.

If Microsoft does this, I assume there's legal battles and possibly more court orders to keep the deal from closing?

So what's with all the pressure the CMA has been getting from the government. The best I can describe what I've seen is the UK doesn't want to look like they aren't willing to do business. How much pressure is this, especially given this notion that the CMA will be "empowered" soon? That makes me think the onversation with the government went the CMA's way....

There will always be some elements of government pressure. Not even the CMA is immune to such things. However, unlike the FTC and EC, the CMA is far less susceptible. The whole point of making them an independent, non-partisan body. In general, the UK government respects the CMA and is expected to grant them even more autonomy in the coming months. Power that will make it even more difficult to defy them. This was in the works well before this deal ever got this far and really had nothing to do with it.
 

DeepEnigma

Gold Member
I guess. I don't know why the FTC thinks they are accomplishing anything here, frankly.



Microsoft did not threaten to close the deal. That was a rumor that was reported through MLex which said that Microsoft was looking into ways of doing it. Nothing more.

Microsoft needs to win a massive victory against the CMA with the CAT. That's where this thing stands, imo.
MS admitted the deal is supposedly 100% dead if they lose to the injunction. That's probably why the FTC is giving it a shot.

Hoping for a double tap instead of the slow bleed out with the CMA appeal.

Edit: and I missed your follow up post, lol.
 
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Varteras

Member
If Microsoft does this, I assume there's legal battles and possibly more court orders to keep the deal from closing?

Sorry. Missed this part. Yes. If MS pushes the deal through regardless, they will absolutely be in court battles. For years, most likely. In no small part because the CMA could potentially fine them 10% of their annual revenue. Which is massive and would make the deal not even remotely worth it.
 

feynoob

Banned
I think this makes sense here
Helen Mirren Brain GIF
 

NickFire

Member
I guess. I don't know why the FTC thinks they are accomplishing anything here, frankly.
The FTC may have acted on injunction because they thought MS might try closing despite the CMA.

They might also be setting themselves up for an unearned victory lap. If CMA decision still stands on July 18 and deal dies, then regardless of win, lose or draw on the preliminary injunction, I bet the FTC claims it stood up and blocked etc etc etc.
 

Varteras

Member
The FTC may have acted on injunction because they thought MS might try closing despite the CMA.

They might also be setting themselves up for an unearned victory lap. If CMA decision still stands on July 18 and deal dies, then regardless of win, lose or draw on the preliminary injunction, I bet the FTC claims it stood up and blocked etc etc etc.

Or to say, "Look. The CMA blocked for the same reasons we had, yet we had to jump through hoops to be denied by a judge".
 

Ogbert

Member
I see, so if then given a proper understanding of the cloud market...CMA could just say "Yea, this doesn't change anything".

Seems like CMA has all the power here.
So, if so remember correctly, MS argument is that the CMA vastly overrated the size of the cloud market and failed to understand that people can still access games natively. Almost as if the cloud market locked you out of all gaming.

The rest of the appeal was just noise, but this was the only point that felt like it had potential substance. If CAT do reach the same conclusion, the CMA would have to genuinely reassess.
 

NickFire

Member
Or to say, "Look. The CMA blocked for the same reasons we had, yet we had to jump through hoops to be denied by a judge".
No way. Losing an injunction doesn't mean you lose the case. If the deal terminates, then even if they lose injunction the political appointees at FTC will try taking credit for the deal ending. Virtually guaranteed.
 

Jigsaah

Gold Member
So, if so remember correctly, MS argument is that the CMA vastly overrated the size of the cloud market and failed to understand that people can still access games natively. Almost as if the cloud market locked you out of all gaming.

The rest of the appeal was just noise, but this was the only point that felt like it had potential substance. If CAT do reach the same conclusion, the CMA would have to genuinely reassess.
Yea I would say that is a good point made my Microsoft. Cloud gaming is...at least now, complimentary. Cloud and Console gaming are not mutually exclusive, sure.

This tweet is insanely good news.



So why would the FTC not get an injunction, especially if they are hellbent on taking this to court. Seems like if Microsoft is true to their word, this is like a last ditch effort to save the deal
 
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Varteras

Member
No way. Losing an injunction doesn't mean you lose the case. If the deal terminates, then even if they lose injunction the political appointees at FTC will try taking credit for the deal ending. Virtually guaranteed.

Losing the injunction would allow Microsoft to legally go through with the deal in the US before the FTC had its own administrative process, though. Then the FTC would have to battle it after the fact if MS really does give the CMA the finger. Which, as has been discussed, is largely seen as a losing situation since many US judges refrain from reversing a concluded acquisition. Don't you think the FTC would point to that situation as evidence that they couldn't even say no to it themselves and prevent it before they went through their own process?
 

feynoob

Banned
I can see why this deal failed. These MTF don't have bill gate.
If he was there, he would have wrapped this deal fast.
Satya ain't no bill gate.
 
So why would the FTC not get an injunction, especially if they are hellbent on taking this to court. Seems like if Microsoft is true to their word, this is like a last ditch effort to save the deal

Yeah I am very confused about what game MS are playing right now.

Threatening to close the deal anyways without CMA or FTC approval.

But claiming that if they get an injunction the deal is dead (pity me approach?), despite the fact that the reason for the injunction is due to their threats of deal closure?

Seems like it's just begging the court system to grant the injunction and expedite this deal's death. I don't see any reason why the courts WOULDN'T grant the injunction?
 
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NickFire

Member
Losing the injunction would allow Microsoft to legally go through with the deal in the US before the FTC had its own administrative process, though. Then the FTC would have to battle it after the fact if MS really does give the CMA the finger. Which, as has been discussed, is largely seen as a losing situation since many US judges refrain from reversing a concluded acquisition. Don't you think the FTC would point to that situation as evidence that they couldn't even say no to it themselves and prevent it before they went through their own process?
Read again please. I’m literally just saying FTC will try taking some credit if deal terminated because of CMA, even if they don’t get injunction.
 

NickFire

Member
Yeah I am very confused about what game MS are playing right now.

Threatening to close the deal anyways without CMA or FTC approval.

But claiming that if they get an injunction the deal is dead (pity me approach?), despite the fact that the reason for the injunction is due to their threats of deal closure?

Seems like it's just begging the court system to grant the injunction and expedite this deal's death. I don't see any reason why the courts WOULDN'T grant the injunction?
Maybe testing waters in US before deciding if they offer more to extend while appealing CMA? If they narrow down to just CMA they might be more willing to risk more money.
 

Varteras

Member
Read again please. I’m literally just saying FTC will try taking some credit if deal terminated because of CMA, even if they don’t get injunction.

I did read. I know what you're saying mostly. But you also said losing the injunction doesn't mean losing the case. What I'm saying is that they don't have to lose the case entirely to use losing an injunction as an example of lacking authority. That they couldn't even prevent the deal from going through before they had their own administrative process and had to run to a judge who ended up denying them anyways.

The push for reforms is to make the FTC more like the CMA. Any struggle they have could be used as evidence as to why that needs to happen. As it has been pointed out by others, historically, US judges don't often like to reverse an acquisition once it happened. The frequent outcome in the US seems to be that if an injunction doesn't happen before a deal is closed, a case pushing to reverse it is likely to lose.
 
It's good for MS.
They won't have to waste 64b on Activision (+3b for the breakout).
It's good for gamers. MS should never have been allowed to entertain the possibility of acquiring ABK, and killing the deal will ensure nobody else (MS, Amazon, Apple, Google, Sony, etc.) will also acquire giant publishers and continue to consolidate the industry until like 3 companies control all of gaming.
 

Elog

Member
Yeah I am very confused about what game MS are playing right now.

Threatening to close the deal anyways without CMA or FTC approval.

But claiming that if they get an injunction the deal is dead (pity me approach?), despite the fact that the reason for the injunction is due to their threats of deal closure?

Seems like it's just begging the court system to grant the injunction and expedite this deal's death. I don't see any reason why the courts WOULDN'T grant the injunction?
Do we know any details regarding the breakup fee? I.e., would an injunction in any shape or form reduce the breakup fee amount (in contractual writing or by legal precedent)?

Then this game would make sense.
 
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Do we know any details regarding the breakup fee? I.e., would an injunction in any shape or form reduce the breakup fee amount (in contractual writing or by legal precedent)?

Then this game would make sense.

Injunction doesn’t reduce the breakup fee

Both parties are basically just obligated to “stay committed” to the deal until the termination date.
 
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ToadMan

Member
Just spit balling here…

Looking at the FTC v Meta/Within merger - which was a PI before acquisition same as MS/ABK. The hearings concluded on 21 December but the judgement denying the PI was not provided until Jan 31. 6 weeks but over Christmas and New Year.

Following that the FTC were given a further Temporary Restraining order for 14 days while they considered an appeal. Ultimately the FTC chose not to appeal and Meta acquired Within.


The “Gamer’s” lawsuit started May 5 and has been dismissed by Judge Corley twice because the litigants cannot show personal immediate harm if MS/ABK close the acquisition.

Despite being dismissed twice that case remains under appeal right now. 6 weeks and it is still going.

FTC vs Illumina/Grail set another precedent. In that instance, the FTC brought an injunction suit (post acquisition in that case) however while the process was ongoing the EC brought an action for Illumina/Grail to be held separate pending a review (which has finally arrived at a divestment required for Grail - ie reverse the acquisition).

In this instance the FTC halted their PI proceedings part way through because the EC had taken action. Following that suspension, the judge approved the idea they could reapply for an injunction in future. Illumina didn’t like this outcome because it stretched out the decision by leaving another suit out there to be brought if the FTC chose to do so.

All this would suggest that the FTC (and indeed the Gamer’s suit which is still running) can grind the clock to July 18 from here.


And on that latter point, the Temporary Restraining Order currently in place says MS/ABK may not close the acquisition until 5 business days have elapsed after the PI ruling.


1. Microsoft and Activision shall not close or consummate their proposed transaction or a substantially similar transaction until after 11:59 p.m. Pacific Time on the fifth business day after the Court rules on the FTC’s request for a preliminary injunction under Federal Trade Commission Act § 13(b), 15 U.S.C. § 53(b), or a date set by the Court, whichever is later;


So July 12 becomes the drop dead date as far as the PI ruling is concerned - 18 July is a Tuesday and the MS/ABK deal expires at 11:59 that day.

MS asking for more days has pushed the hearing out to June 29 - that lost them 6 days compared to the June 23 originally requested by the FTC.

Place your bets…

q4iRC0e.jpg
 
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X-Wing

Member
Just spit balling here…

Looking at the FTC v Meta/Within merger - which was a PI before acquisition same as MS/ABK. The hearings concluded on 21 December but the judgement denying the PI was not provided until Jan 31. 6 weeks but over Christmas and New Year.

Following that the FTC were given a further Temporary Restraining order for 14 days while they considered an appeal. Ultimately the FTC chose not to appeal and Meta acquired Within.


The “Gamer’s” lawsuit started May 5 and has been dismissed by Judge Corley twice because the litigants cannot show personal immediate harm if MS/ABK close the acquisition.

Despite being dismissed twice that case remains under appeal right now. 6 weeks and it is still going.

FTC vs Illumina/Grail set another precedent. In that instance, the FTC brought an injunction suit (post acquisition in that case) however while the process was ongoing the EC brought an action for Illumina/Grail to be held separate pending a review (which has finally arrived at a divestment required for Grail - ie reverse the acquisition).

In this instance the FTC halted their PI proceedings part way through because the EC had taken action. Following that suspension, the judge approved the idea they could reapply for an injunction in future. Illumina didn’t like this outcome because it stretched out the decision by leaving another suit out there to be brought if the FTC chose to do so.

All this would suggest that the FTC (and indeed the Gamer’s suit which is still running) can grind the clock to July 18 from here.


And on that latter point, the Temporary Restraining Order currently in place says MS/ABK may not close the acquisition until 5 business days have elapsed after the PI ruling.


1. Microsoft and Activision shall not close or consummate their proposed transaction or a substantially similar transaction until after 11:59 p.m. Pacific Time on the fifth business day after the Court rules on the FTC’s request for a preliminary injunction under Federal Trade Commission Act § 13(b), 15 U.S.C. § 53(b), or a date set by the Court, whichever is later;


So July 12 becomes the drop dead date as far as the PI ruling is concerned - 18 July is a Tuesday and the MS/ABK deal expires at 11:59 that day.

MS asking for more days has pushed the hearing out to June 29 - that lost them 6 days compared to the June 23 originally requested by the FTC.

Place your bets…

q4iRC0e.jpg

On the other hand they asked for an expedite process of 2 days. The judge has not deliberated about this yet
 

ToadMan

Member
On the other hand they asked for an expedite process of 2 days. The judge has not deliberated about this yet

They did?

I thought the FTC brought the suit, and the court initially said 2 days - June 22/23. Then MS complained on the 14th June and asked for a longer 5 hearing days minimum and pre trial stuff to start immediately on the 15th June which the FTC opposed and hasn’t happened.

As demonstrated in the schedule below, Defendants [this is Microsoft] believe that the hearing could be 21 scheduled for a minimum of five days beginning on June 22 and running through the week of June 22 26 (or the soonest dates thereafter, based on the Court’s busy schedule). To ensure the case 23 proceeds on a viable schedule, Defendants request that the Court set a case management conference 24 as soon as possible to further discuss the format and length of the hearing.

The court approved ~ 5 dates for hearings to take place, but some are only portions of the day - 22/23 & 27/28/29 and the pre-trial is the 21st - with 28 and 29 June being just 1.5 hour sessions scheduled not full days.

The FTC have requested to oppose the MS timetable though which adds more talk to the whole thing arguing over stuff that isn’t the matter at hand of antitrust, competition and harm with the whole thing starting 6 days later than MS wanted.
 
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X-Wing

Member
They did?

I thought the FTC brought the suit, and the court initially said 2 days - June 22/23. Then MS complained on the 14th June and asked for a longer 5 hearing days minimum and pre trial stuff to start immediately on the 15th June which the FTC opposed and hasn’t happened.

As demonstrated in the schedule below, Defendants [this is Microsoft] believe that the hearing could be 21 scheduled for a minimum of five days beginning on June 22 and running through the week of June 22 26 (or the soonest dates thereafter, based on the Court’s busy schedule). To ensure the case 23 proceeds on a viable schedule, Defendants request that the Court set a case management conference 24 as soon as possible to further discuss the format and length of the hearing.

The court approved ~ 5 dates for hearings to take place, but some are only portions of the day - 22/23 & 27/28/29 and the pre-trial is the 21st - with 28 and 29 June being just 1.5 hour sessions scheduled not full days.

The FTC have requested to oppose the MS timetable though which adds more talk to the whole thing arguing over stuff that isn’t the matter at hand of antitrust, competition and harm with the whole thing starting 6 days later than MS wanted.

Update, June 15, 2023: In further filings yesterday, both Microsoft and Activision Blizzard have requested that the court expedite the case management conference, holding it on either June 15 or 16, rather than the following week.
From games industry.biz. Either way if it didn't happen until now then I guess it was refused?
 

ToadMan

Member
From games industry.biz. Either way if it didn't happen until now then I guess it was refused?

There are 2 different and conflicting terms relating to expediting this.

MS wanted the case “expedited” - they wanted it to start earlier than 22/23 (pre-trial on the 15th June which was the day after this filing - not accepted by the court).

But MS also asked to extend the original 2 day hearing to 5 days minimum - obviously this is not expediting the PI judgement. That’s because MS wants to argue over the expert testimony now, feel their case is stronger that way and don’t want to wait until August.

So their call for expeditious treatment is actually to increase the amount of court time right now in hopes of avoid passing the July drop dead date.

But I have a feeling that growing this case will mean the judge has to take longer deliberating on all the evidence and risks pushing this past July 12 (the restraining order limit) and even 18 July.

And then there’s that Illumina/Grail situation. FTC claim that MS may close regardless of the CAT process in the UK and that forms the FTC’s “immediate harm” part of the injunction. MS will presumably argue they won’t do that and will abide by the laws in all jurisdictions.

At which point the FTC can withdraw this suit saying they’ll wait pending decisions in other jurisdictions as with Illumina. That would mean MS still doesn’t get a decision in the US and the FTC maintain the option to file a further PI suit with associated temporary restraining order if they have cause to believe MS will back track on their assurance before July 18.

⏳⏳⏳
 

Three

Member
OHhhhhh ok, so losing constantly basically provides evidence that the FTC need more power. Ok that makes sense.
The legal system is a little weird. Sometimes you have landmark cases where it can influence future cases. I think it's more that they have to try even if a lot of them aren't successful.
 

X-Wing

Member
Something I thought about earlier. Microsoft is appealing to the CAT with the argument that CMA's market definition was erroneous. The thing is, if it gets decided by the CAT that the market definition needs to be adjusted, and it is decided that Cloud Gaming is part of the gaming market as whole, will the CMA also have to redefine the HP Console market? And if yes, adding the Switch to that market would put PlayStation and Xbox on much more equal grounds which could make the original SLC console market relevant again... Or am I thinking too much into this?
 

Astray

Member
$1.7 billion dollar merger is the difference. Just like how Zenimax didn't really raise too many regulator red flags.
This clearly equalled or surpassed the CMA review threshold though. Otherwise they wouldn't even be reviewing it.

Once it lands in the jurisdiction of the CMA, the value of the deal itself doesn't really have much of a bearing on anything.
 
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