Just spit balling here…
Looking at the FTC v Meta/Within merger - which was a PI before acquisition same as MS/ABK. The hearings concluded on 21 December but the judgement denying the PI was not provided until Jan 31. 6 weeks but over Christmas and New Year.
Following that the FTC were given a further Temporary Restraining order for 14 days while they considered an appeal. Ultimately the FTC chose not to appeal and Meta acquired Within.
The “Gamer’s” lawsuit started May 5 and has been dismissed by Judge Corley twice because the litigants cannot show personal immediate harm if MS/ABK close the acquisition.
Despite being dismissed twice that case remains under appeal right now. 6 weeks and it is still going.
FTC vs Illumina/Grail set another precedent. In that instance, the FTC brought an injunction suit (post acquisition in that case) however while the process was ongoing the EC brought an action for Illumina/Grail to be held separate pending a review (which has finally arrived at a divestment required for Grail - ie reverse the acquisition).
In this instance the FTC halted their PI proceedings part way through because the EC had taken action. Following that suspension, the judge approved the idea they could reapply for an injunction in future. Illumina didn’t like this outcome because it stretched out the decision by leaving another suit out there to be brought if the FTC chose to do so.
All this would suggest that the FTC (and indeed the Gamer’s suit which is still running) can grind the clock to July 18 from here.
And on that latter point, the Temporary Restraining Order currently in place says MS/ABK may not close the acquisition until 5 business days have elapsed after the PI ruling.
1. Microsoft and Activision shall not close or consummate their proposed transaction or a substantially similar transaction until after 11:59 p.m. Pacific Time on the fifth business day after the Court rules on the FTC’s request for a preliminary injunction under Federal Trade Commission Act § 13(b), 15 U.S.C. § 53(b), or a date set by the Court, whichever is later;
So
July 12 becomes the drop dead date as far as the PI ruling is concerned - 18 July is a Tuesday and the MS/ABK deal expires at 11:59 that day.
MS asking for more days has pushed the hearing out to June 29 - that lost them 6 days compared to the June 23 originally requested by the FTC.
Place your bets…