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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
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feynoob

Banned
The 3b is payable if the deal doesn't close before the deadline. Until the deadline lands Activision are required to play ball, but once July 18 ends with no closure they will turn around and ask for that 3 billion.

You are correct that on its own it won't really do much to raise the stock price, but it can aid in either buybacks (which would raise the price) or in acquiring studios/IP that can help the company grow.
I think they need to invest in overwatch.
Activision long term is at risk as every studios is helping out on COD, while series like overwatch is going downhill slowly.
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
Also it's normal to have such a fee in these contracts, but based on how close they are with each other I wouldn't be surprised that Activision never asks for that 3B even if the deal doesn't go through.

giphy.gif
 

reksveks

Member
And should have been stopped at a time where is was on the verge of becoming a "true" monopoly. Just like MS/Acti merger.
Do you know when that was?

Not say that they shouldn't have been but it very much was a creeping dominance from Google. whilst the YT purchase or Doubleclick should have had more inspection, don't think regulators could have guess the impact of those buys.
 
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Kilau

Member
Or she is just trying to be fair, which a judge should be. She analysed the request, and thought it was indeed necessary to give them some extra days. I don't think she's already leaning in a direction, although I at least hope that's not the case.
Fair is equal application of the law. So if this is how these preliminary hearings are handled across the board, that’s fine. If not, then it looks like MS is being given special treatment.
 

Astray

Member
Or she is just trying to be fair, which a judge should be. She analysed the request, and thought it was indeed necessary to give them some extra days. I don't think she's already leaning in a direction, although I at least hope that's not the case.
They needed the time to be able to finish depositions.

Judges in general don't like to be overturned on appeal, and "she didn't give us enough time to finish deposing witnesses" is basic procedural error.

I don't see how this is a win or a loss for either FTC or Microsoft here tbh. Too early to comment on such things.
 

Ansphn

Member
Just because they have that power, that doesn't mean will actually use it. Also this is a whole different legal matter that will definitely show up in court too, because there's no way that if Microsoft circumvents it AND CMA asks for 20B, that Microsoft isn't going to fight this. Will be a battle of multiple years, and if Microsoft is confident they won't lose that fight, the 20B find can be ignored in your previous equation.
Why wouldn't the CMA fine Microsoft? If Microsoft just ignores the CMA, it would be the first company to do so. Even Meta paid their fines and sold out a part of their company. Microsoft would be public enemy # 1 in the U.K.
 
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X-Wing

Member
FTC will respond to Microsoft's request to anticipate the case management conference and they are gonna use the CMA decision to leverage their position.
I hope we start seeing a much more aggressive FTC.

Plaintiff intends to file an opposition to the Motion by 2:00 p.m. Pacific Time tomorrow, June 15, 2023. Plaintiff needs that time to respond to the substance of the Motion, not least Defendants’ claim that “time is of the essence” because the deal “has a termination of date of July 18,” which ignores the fact that the United Kingdom Competition and Markets Authority has issued orders barring the transaction. Mot. at 3. Plaintiff’s counsel is available for a conference with the Court at the Court’s convenience.
 

EdGalTBR

Banned

Banjo64

cumsessed
I understand that the 3B is payable, and Activision is completely in their right to ask for it. I just mean that if Activision still wants to sell to Microsoft and believe this can happen after July 18, they probably won't demand it since Microsoft might see this as an insult.

Also it's normal to have such a fee in these contracts, but based on how close they are with each other I wouldn't be surprised that Activision never asks for that 3B even if the deal doesn't go through.
I’ve found it guys. The funniest post in this thread.
 

Helghan

Member
They needed the time to be able to finish depositions.

Judges in general don't like to be overturned on appeal, and "she didn't give us enough time to finish deposing witnesses" is basic procedural error.

I don't see how this is a win or a loss for either FTC or Microsoft here tbh. Too early to comment on such things.
Since Microsoft asked for this, it's a win for them.
 
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Ronin_7

Member
I believe Microsoft will try to make a new deal with Activision but Activision accepting is a whole nother history in itself.

I'm sure they're talking as we speak behind the scenes but those things rarely leak.
 

DeepEnigma

Gold Member
I believe Microsoft will try to make a new deal with Activision but Activision accepting is a whole nother history in itself.

I'm sure they're talking as we speak behind the scenes but those things rarely leak.
What, no Lulu console/brand war propaganda leaks?
Cbs What GIF by The Late Late Show with James Corden
 
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Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
I believe Microsoft will try to make a new deal with Activision but Activision accepting is a whole nother history in itself.

I'm sure they're talking as we speak behind the scenes but those things rarely leak.
MS will definitely try. They'll do whatever they can to convince them. MS has no other option.

It is 100% up to Activision. My guess is that they will not renew the contract, but let's see what happens.
 

Kilau

Member
MS will definitely try. They'll do whatever they can to convince them. MS has no other option.

It is 100% up to Activision. My guess is that they will not renew the contract, but let's see what happens.
Depending on which side of their mouth you listen to, the deal is dead if they can’t close by July 18th. They told the judge that.

So are they lying because they will extend with ABK to handle the later CAT hearing or are they lying about not closing the merger while under legal injunction?

Either way they are lying, shock.
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
Depending on which side of their mouth you listen to, the deal is dead if they can’t close by July 18th. They told the judge that.

So are they lying because they will extend with ABK to handle the later CAT hearing or are they lying about not closing the merger while under legal injunction?

Either way they are lying, shock.
This part is technically true. The deal is dead if they can't close by July 18th -- unless they renegotiate. So that's what it has all come down to.

Now it all depends on if MS and ABK can renegotiate and extend the contract successfully. If they do, then they get a lifeline to wait until CAT's and CMA's second decision on their appeal. If they can't renew, the deal is dead on July 19th.
 

Pelta88

Member
I believe Microsoft will try to make a new deal with Activision but Activision accepting is a whole nother history in itself.

I'm sure they're talking as we speak behind the scenes but those things rarely leak.

The admission that if they're forced to renegotiate then the deal is done, speaks volumes. But I'm wondering if the marketing deal with PS is also a looming factor. Without the deal going through, COD still needs to attach to the market leader to maximise sales.

There is a reason why Acti does marketing deals year in / year out. And there's also a reason why they switched COD from XBOX to PS when they saw how last gen was going. If MS closes then fine, Microsoft will absorb the cost of only selling COD copies in US/UK. But currently, those lost sales will be absorbed by Acti.

Those worldwide sales are a huge part of ATVI's profit and currently, XB doesn't sell consoles in those regions.
 

DeepEnigma

Gold Member
This part is technically true. The deal is dead if they can't close by July 18th -- unless they renegotiate. So that's what it has all come down to.

Now it all depends on if MS and ABK can renegotiate and extend the contract successfully. If they do, then they get a lifeline to wait until CAT's and CMA's second decision on their appeal. If they can't renew, the deal is dead on July 19th.
But they will close anyway! Totes!
heavy metal rock GIF
 

ToadMan

Member
I believe Microsoft will try to make a new deal with Activision but Activision accepting is a whole nother history in itself.

I'm sure they're talking as we speak behind the scenes but those things rarely leak.

I actually think its already too late for an extension - assuming they need another round of shareholder voting to get that anyway.
 

Kilau

Member
This part is technically true. The deal is dead if they can't close by July 18th -- unless they renegotiate. So that's what it has all come down to.

Now it all depends on if MS and ABK can renegotiate and extend the contract successfully. If they do, then they get a lifeline to wait until CAT's and CMA's second decision on their appeal. If they can't renew, the deal is dead on July 19th.
Then that’s what the judge should tell them to do since the FTC clearly has a valid concern they will close the merger while under ongoing litigation.

That’s what the hearing is supposed to be about, instead it’s turning into the final arbitration hearing.
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
I actually think its already too late for an extension - assuming they need another round of shareholder voting to get that anyway.
Very true.

For reference, the last time ABK shareholders took 100 days to sign the acquisition -- and it was smooth sailing back then.

Now they have 33 days left to do it, assuming they even start from today -- and that's not accounting for all the legal troubles they're going through.
 
Very true.

For reference, the last time ABK shareholders took 100 days to sign the acquisition -- and it was smooth sailing back then.

Now they have 33 days left to do it, assuming they even start from today -- and that's not accounting for all the legal troubles they're going through.

It could be possible that Microsoft is leaving this to the last minute to put pressure on ABK. Basically not allowing them time to negotiate new terms but to accept whatever is given to them.
 

jm89

Member
I mean you did at times.

300 posts since 2018 doesn't seem like a lot.
Oh he did.

He was thumping his chest about the series s and gamepass value

Here's my favourite quote from him.

People are seeing more value on Xbox than Playstation. I believe it's all about the cheaper prices and GamePass.

Once the sales reports and NPD leaked numbers came out he avoided the sale threads like the plague.
 
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DeepEnigma

Gold Member
Oh he did.

He was thumping his chest about the series s and gamepass value

Here's my favourite quote from him.



Once the the sales reports and NPD leaked numbers came out he avoided the sale threads like the plague.
Of course Foss liked that second post.😆
That reads oddly familiar.
You're right. Xbox Series S offers value for casual consumers for the like of Xbox Game Pass, compared to £70/$70/€80 games.
 
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