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[Unknown Soldier]

Fuck the acquisition. We need to nominate GHG to create a stock market/trading OT

It's not like you guys haven't learned and had some sound investing advice from him.

The last place I would go for stock advice is GAF. Most of these people are barely aware of the gaming industry much less the rest of the investing world.

In the real gaming industry, the majority of people play on phones, are accustomed to paying MTX, regularly play games like Fortnite, Call of Duty, and Madden. That's like 90% of the modern gamers and like 0% of GAF. They are such a tiny niche and they don't even know it.

 

[RedC]

My prediction:

FTC will be denied a preliminary injunction.

MS closes acquisition with Activision Blizzard.

 

[Pelta88]

The last place I would go for stock advice is GAF.

I'm talking about a discussion. An OT. The other site has a pretty vibrant stock/trading discussion.

I figured we could do the same here.

 

[Kilau]

My prediction:

FTC will be denied a preliminary injunction.

MS closes acquisition with Activision Blizzard.

They will if they don’t have a chance of extending the terms with ABK and they are ready to do something else with the UK.

 

[Calverz]

The last place I would go for stock advice is GAF. Most of these people are barely aware of the gaming industry much less the rest of the investing world.

In the real gaming industry, the majority of people play on phones, are accustomed to paying MTX, regularly play games like Fortnite, Call of Duty, and Madden. That's like 90% of the modern gamers and like 0% of GAF. They are such a tiny niche and they don't even know it.

Hey screw you man. I’ve put in over 400 hours into mw2!

 

[RedC]

They will if they don’t have a chance of extending the terms with ABK and they are ready to do something else with the UK.

True.

 

[GHG]

The last place I would go for stock advice is GAF. Most of these people are barely aware of the gaming industry much less the rest of the investing world.

In the real gaming industry, the majority of people play on phones, are accustomed to paying MTX, regularly play games like Fortnite, Call of Duty, and Madden. That's like 90% of the modern gamers and like 0% of GAF. They are such a tiny niche and they don't even know it.

I don't think anybody should be buying or selling anything in financial markets based on anything anyone here says. In fact I'd extend that statement across the whole internet. What I mean by that is buying/selling X stock because you saw someone say something about it.

What people should be on the lookout for is anything that can enrich their knowledge, enabling them to make their own decisions (in confidence) with regards to what to buy/sell. If someone doesn't know what they're doing and they don't want to put the time and effort into learning then they're better off staying away in all honestly, their capital will be safer that way.

 

[Nydius]

Suddenly everyone is onboard with how relatively close we are to cloud being a major factor in gaming after years of thread after thread shitting on it here.

I know I said I was done with this discussion damn like 150 pages back or so, but, FFS...

What you, I, or anyone here think of the state of the cloud is irrelevant. The fact of the matter is Microsoft believes it's the Next Big Thing™ and have been massively promoting it for the last two years. xCloud has been a major development talking point. Spencer and others in the Xbox brand have pontificated at length about cloud gaming being a primary future focus for the brand. You'll note they've only shut up about it recently because CMA used it against them.

CMA looked at such statements, along with all the evidence they were given, and came to the conclusion that, if allowed to acquire ABK, it would give Microsoft an almost insurmountable lead in the (yes, still emerging and not-yet-here) cloud gaming market. They would have the infrastructure, the branding, the marketing, and the game library to make it next to impossible for their nearest competitors in the space, Amazon and Google, to ever be competitive. All the 'agreements' they were inking were just for show, with virtually all of the profits from the games going to Microsoft themselves.

The European Commission had the same reservations. The only difference is where the CMA decided to preemptively prevent such a future from happening, the EC decided to take Microsoft's proposed remedies with the prospect of hefty fines when/if they violated them.

I prefer CMA's approach because we've seen repeatedly that the threat of big dollar fines rarely, if ever, changes market balance once power has been consolidated.

 

[Iced Arcade]

People catch too many feelings. Yes this threat definitely favors PS and obvious biased show through a lot but for the most part it's still a great group of guys and fans of all catch moderation/bans

I was pro acquisition until the bit about subscriptions cost going up. Lol fuck all that.

 

[Slicker than your average]

He said “case by case basis”. Not “ games wouldn’t be made exclusive”



I know Phil does a lot of double speak but that was pretty clear to most people. And for 7Bn I wouldn’t be putting those games on anything but my own platforms anyway. Common sense if you are trying to grow your own customer base,

Literally no issue with that. It's just Phil's bullshit of giving gamers more choice and we don't want to hold gamers back etc etc.

The guy needs to own his bullshit. Fact is he never does, and uses double speak all the time. And I'll repeat, there is no way in hell they were always giving cod a ten year guarantee from the start and it was only some to force the deal through .

Not sure why Xbox gamers even give a shit. You weren't not getting the games.

 

[Ronin_7]

My prediction:

FTC will be denied a preliminary injunction.

MS closes acquisition with Activision Blizzard.

Possible but CMA winning in CAT means 10% fine...

The whole case is very strange, i don't really care much about the acquisition but I like reading the thread

I don't really play Activision Games other than Call of Duty Mobile

 

[Slicker than your average]

I know I said I was done with this discussion damn like 150 pages back or so, but, FFS...

What you, I, or anyone here think of the state of the cloud is irrelevant. The fact of the matter is Microsoft believes it's the Next Big Thing™ and have been massively promoting it for the last two years. xCloud has been a major development talking point. Spencer and others in the Xbox brand have pontificated at length about cloud gaming being a primary future focus for the brand. You'll note they've only shut up about it recently because CMA used it against them.

CMA looked at such statements, along with all the evidence they were given, and came to the conclusion that, if allowed to acquire ABK, it would give Microsoft an almost insurmountable lead in the (yes, still emerging and not-yet-here) cloud gaming market. They would have the infrastructure, the branding, the marketing, and the game library to make it next to impossible for their nearest competitors in the space, Amazon and Google, to ever be competitive. All the 'agreements' they were inking were just for show, with virtually all of the profits from the games going to Microsoft themselves.

The European Commission had the same reservations. The only difference is where the CMA decided to preemptively prevent such a future from happening, the EC decided to take Microsoft's proposed remedies with the prospect of hefty fines when/if they violated them.

I prefer CMA's approach because we've seen repeatedly that the threat of big dollar fines rarely, if ever, changes market balance once power has been consolidated.

Just like to add. All those huge tech companies that get billion dollar fines off the EU end up getting reversed by fancy lawyers anyway. Fines don't mean shit.

 

[Unknown Soldier]

I'm talking about a discussion. An OT. The other site has a pretty vibrant stock/trading discussion.

I figured we could do the same here.

Sir, with all due respect, "the other site" hates Elon Musk and Tesla, so they missed out on all the gains from that. All gaming sites universally are full of tiny screeching minorities which hate Nvidia, so they missed out on all the gains from that. Most of these tiny niche discussion forums hate companies like Apple, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook/Meta, Netflix, etc. Are you starting to understand the problem here?

I don't need a "vibrant stock/trading discussion" which dismisses the best performing companies of the last 2 decades because they are irrationally hated by a tiny but loud and annoying minority. And this isn't just a problem at niche forums like GAF and "the other site", it's a universal problem on Reddit who are also the worst stock traders ever because they openly conflate their psychotically far-left politics with how to invest in companies.

 

[Unknown Soldier]

Hey screw you man. I’ve put in over 400 hours into mw2!

Friend, you are the 1% on GAF.

You wanna know how strange I am? I'm one of those weird people who buy CoD games for the single player campaign. This is why I played MW and MW2, I don't ever go online for CoD multiplayer. IW was one of my favorite CoD games for this reason, it had the best SP campaign of the last decade of CoD games.

 

[adamsapple]

People catch too many feelings. Yes this threat definitely favors PS and obvious biased show through a lot but for the most part it's still a great group of guys and fans of all catch moderation/bans

I was pro acquisition until the bit about subscriptions cost going up. Lol fuck all that.

Wait, why would you think sub prices wouldn't go up at some point in the future regardless of the acquisition? Are you realistically expecting game pass prices to stay static forever ?

 

[Iced Arcade]

Wait, why would you think sub prices wouldn't go up at some point in the future regardless of the acquisition? Are you realistically expecting game pass prices to stay static forever ?

Obviously increases happen.

I mean big increases to follow this acquisition as a result of it.

 

[Pelta88]

Sir, with all due respect, "the other site" hates Elon Musk and Tesla, so they missed out on all the gains from that. All gaming sites universally are full of tiny screeching minorities which hate Nvidia, so they missed out on all the gains from that. Most of these tiny niche discussion forums hate companies like Apple, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook/Meta, Netflix, etc. Are you starting to understand the problem here?

I don't need a "vibrant stock/trading discussion" which dismisses the best performing companies of the last 2 decades because they are irrationally hated by a tiny but loud and annoying minority. And this isn't just a problem at niche forums like GAF and "the other site", it's a universal problem on Reddit who are also the worst stock traders ever because they openly conflate their psychotically far-left politics with how to invest in companies.

I hear and understand your concern with a potential stock trading thread. As GHG said, there's actually a thread for trading on the board already, it just isn't popular. Yes, WSB on and several other trading threads on reddit are abysmal. But the one thing you seem to skip in both post are two key words.

Due Diligence.

Anyone trading without applying due diligence... Well you know how that goes. And therefore what traders on any platform wilfully omit or employ in their trading strategy is on them. I thought that was common knowledge? But you seem to be qualifying any discussion based on what people have said previously. And truthfully, I don't get that.

 

[freefornow]

I'm one of those weird people who buy CoD games for the single player campaign.

Spoiler

 

[Topher]

Wait, why would you think sub prices wouldn't go up at some point in the future regardless of the acquisition? Are you realistically expecting game pass prices to stay static forever ?

If anything is going to hasten that price increase then spending $69 billion and adding that library to the service would do the trick.

 

[Sanepar]

My prediction:

FTC will be denied a preliminary injunction.

MS closes acquisition with Activision Blizzard.

Agree I think this deal is done and will happen 1st or 2nd week of July. They will ignore CMA.

 

[Sanepar]

Wait, why would you think sub prices wouldn't go up at some point in the future regardless of the acquisition? Are you realistically expecting game pass prices to stay static forever ?

Remember something 99% of world are stupid and 1% are smart and rich. That's why so many people think gamepass is a good deal and will stay with these prices forever. Subscription services are not a saving or a good deal. Most of people buy 6-8 games per generation and it is not because of price. It is because of time.

 

[RedC]

You wanna know how strange I am? I'm one of those weird people who buy CoD games for the single player campaign.

I buy CoD games for the single-player campaign too but don't even play them. LOL

 

[Topher]

My prediction:

FTC will be denied a preliminary injunction.

MS closes acquisition with Activision Blizzard.

Still have to get through the UK appeals process.

 

[RedC]

Still have to get through the UK appeals process.

It's dependent if MS and Activision Blizzard being willing to extend their acquisition deadline if they're successful in getting a judge to deny the FTC before their already agreed-upon acquisition deadline.

 

[Topher]

It's dependent if MS and Activision Blizzard being willing to extend their acquisition deadline if they're successful in getting a judge to deny the FTC before their already agreed-upon acquisition deadline.

For the US side of the equation, yes. Not for the UK.

 

[RedC]

For the US side of the equation, yes. Not for the UK.

If they decide to close the acquisition if the US judge denies the FTC and before their merger deadline of July 18 then it doesn't matter about the appeals process in the UK.

Obviously, it would mean they're not waiting.

 

[reinking]

Still have to get through the UK appeals process.

Haven't you heard? MS is going to ignore the CAT/CMA and MS has fancy lawyers so fines will not matter. Looks like the CMA hand are tied in this one.

 

[Varteras]

Remember something 99% of world are stupid and 1% are smart and rich. That's why so many people think gamepass is a good deal and will stay with these prices forever. Subscription services are not a saving or a good deal. Most of people buy 6-8 games per generation and it is not because of price. It is because of time.

Yeah. This is something many have pointed out. The significant difference in the ability to consume games versus movies or music. The latter two can be consumed completely passively while doing other things. You could listen to 3-minute songs 20 times in an hour. You can easily finish 4 movies of standard length in an 8-hour window. These numbers lend very well to a subscription service.

A single-player game that takes less than 10-hours to complete is typically considered short these days. Many people will spend the better part of a week playing one single player game. Bigger games can take the average person two weeks or more, depending on obligations. Multiplayer games can consume countless hours. All of them require your input to progress the experience. You can't consume them while driving or lifting weights or making dinner.

Because of the investment required and the limited time your average person has to play, most people just don't have the "disposable schedule" to play that many different games and actually fully absorb them. You pretty much need to be severely ADHD and with nothing going on in your life. For someone like me, I've been playing Diablo 4 almost constantly and am still nowhere near done with the game. World of Warcraft typically dominates my play time when other big games haven't just released.

For someone like me, a sub service is actually almost a complete waste of money. I typically sub, sample some games if I'm bored, then unsub. But that is rare. I probably end up doing that maybe twice a year. And I never find a game that holds me for more than a couple hours.

 

[RedC]

Haven't you heard? MS is going to ignore the CAT/CMA and MS has fancy lawyers so fines will not matter. Looks like the CMA hand are tied in this one.

Granted Microsoft can simply be bluffing. We shall find out soon enough.

 

[Topher]

If they decide to close the acquisition if the US judge denies the FTC and before their merger deadline of July 18 then it doesn't matter about the appeals process in the UK.

Obviously, it would mean they're not waiting.

It would mean Microsoft would be in violation of UK laws. That does matter.

 

[Unknown Soldier]

I hear and understand your concern with a potential stock trading thread. As GHG said, there's actually a thread for trading on the board already, it just isn't popular. Yes, WSB on and several other trading threads on reddit are abysmal. But the one thing you seem to skip in both post are two key words.

Due Diligence.

Anyone trading without applying due diligence... Well you know how that goes. And therefore what traders on any platform wilfully omit or employ in their trading strategy is on them. I thought that was common knowledge? But you seem to be qualifying any discussion based on what people have said previously. And truthfully, I don't get that.

I guess what I'm saying is you won't find anything useful to do your DD on in the first place.

 

[RedC]

It would mean Microsoft would be in violation of UK laws. That does matter.

Yes, and Microsoft may be willing to deal with those consequences.

 

[RickMasters]

Literally no issue with that. It's just Phil's bullshit of giving gamers more choice and we don't want to hold gamers back etc etc.

The guy needs to own his bullshit. Fact is he never does, and uses double speak all the time. And I'll repeat, there is no way in hell they were always giving cod a ten year guarantee from the start and it was only some to force the deal through .

Not sure why Xbox gamers even give a shit. You weren't not getting the games.

What you just said does not change the fact that he said it would be reviews on a case by case basis, does it?



As for your closing statement….. well….. we all seen first hand how Sonys position in the console space has given them somebody leverage on their competitors. And how they USE that leverage for exclusives and sweet heart deals. Sony were money hatting games from a publisher that’s always been associated with xbox. It’s like you thought MS would just pay Sony on the back for tha…..and now they react…by making sure that doesn’t happen again. they are the big trillion dollar bully?


It’s all business. Money talks and bullshit walks you hear?

 

[Varteras]

Yes, and Microsoft may be willing to deal with those consequences.

It also requires ABK to agree to it despite the contractual obligation of regulatory approval not being met. They could actually just be sitting there, waiting for the deadline to collect a free $3 billion and then go make contracts with Sony again.

Their situation has changed from two years ago, and good old Bobby has been doing puff pieces about how good ABK's financial situation is.

Some have pointed out that it's curious that MS and ABK didn't renegotiate a month or more ago already. The difficulty in overcoming the CMA would have been well understood and the consequences of pushing it through, no matter what, are potentially far more damaging to Microsoft than any value this deal brings.

 

[RickMasters]

1) Phil said, before the acquisition, that the Bethesda acquisition was not done to take their games off other platforms. Then, after the acquisition closed, he said that the acquisition was done for exclusive games.

2) They did submit to regulators that they had no financial incentive to make Zenimax games exclusive (no mention of case by case at all). The same thing they submitted to regulators during the ABK acquisition, i.e., they have no financial incentive to make ABK games exclusive.

Here we go again……


So knowing the guy is full of double speak you want to post MORE of the unreliable and unrealistic talk about how a company is gonna spend 7Bn and NOT make things exclusive? I’m pretty sure when you spend that kind of money on something you invest in it in a way that Benefits your platforms not your rivals….. and yet here you all are expecting it from MS…… tell me….. where did this entitlement come from? Did you buy Bethesda? You guys hold up this man’s words in a way where I as Xbox owner do NOT…… and that is quite…… the interesting. Because I don’t take anything that he says at face value as an Xbox owner….. yet you guys will grab his quotes when it suits you and tell us to take it with a pinch of salt the next day. Some of you flip flop on his opinions as bad as he does on his own!

 

[RedC]

It also requires ABK to agree to it despite the contractual obligation of regulatory approval not being met. They could actually just be sitting there, waiting for the deadline to collect a free $3 billion and then go make contracts with Sony again.

Their situation has changed from two years ago, and good old Bobby has been doing puff pieces about how good ABK's financial situation is.

Some have pointed out that it's curious that MS and ABK didn't renegotiate a month or more ago already. The difficulty in overcoming the CMA would have been well understood and the consequences of pushing it through, no matter what, are potentially far more damaging to Microsoft than any value this deal brings.

Perhaps or perhaps not.

It's honestly what makes this specific acquisition process so exciting. It's got me on the edge of my seat wondering if they're going to follow through on expectations or subvert it. If something unprecedented is going to happen or not.

 

[RickMasters]

cod will become exclusive... if you believe otherwise you haven't been paying attention

With the kind of money it makes? Hell no! And it never need be. It can stay as the biggest selling shooter game on all platforms for years to come and MS only need enjoy that revenue. They don’t need any ABK games as exclusives. Especially after that recent showcase.

 

[RedC]

With the kind of money it makes? Hell no! And it never need be. It can stay as the biggest selling shooter game on all platforms for years to come and MS only need enjoy that revenue. They don’t need any ABK games as exclusives. Especially after that recent showcase.

I agree CoD will be handled like Minecraft as its own thing that's multiplatform and released on as many platforms as possible.

However, any other ABK single-player game will highly likely be made exclusive to Xbox/PC.

 

[Topher]

Yes, and Microsoft may be willing to deal with those consequences.

Doubtful, but I'd love to see the fireworks that comes out of that shitshow.

 

[PaintTinJr]

Yes, and Microsoft may be willing to deal with those consequences.

By the same logic, that US judges typically won't rule in favour of a post merger breakup because of the impact on the wider market, it is logical to assume, judges seeing that the CMA will definitely Giphy the ATVI entity - if Microsoft force the closure - a US judge's failure to grant the injunction would make them fully culpable for the impact on the wider market - when the CMA forces the divestment.

On that reasoning I would suggest the injunction is far more likely than not.

 

[RickMasters]

I agree CoD will be handled like Minecraft as its own thing that's multiplatform and released on as many platforms as possible.

However, any other ABK single-player game will highly likely be made exclusive to Xbox/PC.

I’d even argue it might be the only way we see single ABK games. Everything they do is multiplayer. And activision itself has geared all its studios around COD.


As much as I would love to see a pitfall game that borrows from uncharted….. or single player games set in the StarCraft and WoW universes, I think they are gonna have to really look at de-annualised COD and maybe keep warzone as the constant…. I don’t know. I thing some serious resource management will have to take place. I think they would have to pull some devs off COD to work on some of those dormant IP, or maybe let those devs make new games… wishful thinking in my part maybe.

 

[HoofHearted]

Doubtful, but I'd love to see the fireworks that comes out of that shitshow.

Perhaps we should add another line to the poll "MS / ABK will go forward without CMA approval - fireworks shitshow incoming..."

 

[Varteras]

Perhaps we should add another line to the poll "MS / ABK will go forward without CMA approval - fireworks shitshow incoming..."

Doubtful, but I'd love to see the fireworks that comes out of that shitshow.

We'll have a party. Believe me. Us Americans know how to party when fireworks are involved!

 

[reinking]

We'll have a party. Believe me. Us Americans know how to party when fireworks are involved!

Yeah we do...

 

[Varteras]

Going over the Meta and Giphy case, I don't think Microsoft would want to try and force the closure. Even though Meta won its initial appeal, and the CMA was forced to reexamine the case, they still said no a year later. Because Meta had already closed the deal under the CMA's nose before they were regulated, they had to divest. They bought Giphy for $400 million. They ended up selling it for $53 million. A roughly 87% loss on their investment.

If the same thing happened to Microsoft, they'd be looking at losing around $60 billion with nothing to show for it. They'd probably still lose tens of billions even in a good scenario. If they refused to divest, they could be looking at annual fines of up to $20 billion a year. Considering the CMA already told them no, I do wonder if its possible for a situation where they are both fined tens of billions and then lose tens of billions more, shortly after, for deciding to divest rather than accrue any more fines.

I think their only real play here is use the FTC injunction case to try and convince ABK at the last minute to extend the deadline for another year, if they win. Though that means convincing them to lose out on signing contracts with other parties over another year, with current deals soon expiring. When ABK could just walk away with an easy $3 billion and get back to business, while even potentially shopping themselves out to other companies that regulators wouldn't care about.

For Microsoft, trying to force a closure is just too risky. Even a company like them wouldn't want to eat those kinds of losses for nothing. I'm fairly sure both companies saw the FTC as a largely non-issue, anyways. Beating the FTC is a pretty easy feat. The CMA? Not so much. Though considering the twists and turns this whole thing has taken, I'd keep that popcorn ready.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Oddly, despite the UK crackdown on the acquisition Activision stock has quietly crept up.

The stock was mid-$80s end of April, dropped $10 to the mid-$70s. Now back to $82???

The buyout price is around $95-ish I think.

 

[GHG]

Oddly, despite the UK crackdown on the acquisition Activision stock has quietly crept up.

The stock was mid-$80s end of April, dropped $10 to the mid-$70s. Now back to $82???

The buyout price is around $95-ish I think.

The stock's beta has crept back up (expanding vol) towards what it was prior to this deal being announced since the CMA blocked the deal.

Make of that what you will.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Just something to read about the potential outcomes.

Factbox-Potential outcomes of FTC legal bids to block Microsoft-Activision deal

Microsoft has pressed for a decision sooner rather than later, noting that the purchase agreement has a termination date of July 18, although such dates can be extended and often are. When AT&T was buying DirecTV in 2015, the companies extended the termination date twice. The first fight will...

finance.yahoo.com

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

The stock's beta has crept back up (expanding vol) towards what it was prior to this deal being announced since the CMA blocked the deal.

Make of that what you will.

Yes. And beta right now has done very well over the last month

There’s a reason that the deal has a firm expiration date, because anything longer than a year or two stocks will tend to naturally rise (but not always) due to improving business environment.

A deal with a price in 2022 will require a higher price in 2024 and beyond if the underlying business has improved

 

[Kilau]

The stock's beta has crept back up (expanding vol) towards what it was prior to this deal being announced since the CMA blocked the deal.

Make of that what you will.

Hmmm, I never looked at their stock price until now. June of 2021 they were trading at $96 and few months before that it was $102. MS really swooped in at low point paying a "premium" that was lower than recent highs. It could be easily argued that the stock wouldn't have rebounded so quickly without the merger deal but far be it from ABK to act greedy and want more money to extend the deal now that they are in a better position.