The data available suggests otherwise.
I've talked about this before here but beta (along with options IV) is
the indicator to get a feel for what the concensus is on wall street in terms of how likely they feel an announced acquisition is to go through.
When everyone was convinced the deal was in the bag from a regulatory standpoint (April 2023) the stock's beta plummeted to <0.05 and the average daily range was ~$0.50. In other words the volatility collapsed out of the stock and what the general market was doing had no bearing on it at all - at that point it was seen as a low risk investment, particularly from an arbitrage standpoint.
To state there's no evidence regarding anything to do with the stock prices, trading patterns or readings such as beta is simply incorrect, everything available paints a picture and tells a story. I'm not going to share screenshots of exactly where I'm getting my data from because I pay a pretty penny for it but here are some tidbits that you can easily verify using publicly available information if you know how to calculate beta over any given time period:
- ATVI beta - 2 week period prior to acquisition announcement (2022-01-03 - 2022-01-14) : 0.6755
- ATVI beta - 1 week period after acquisition announcement (2022-01-18 - 2022-01-21, shorter trading week due to Martin Luther King Jr. Day, 4 days of data available): -4.5088
- ATVI beta - 1 week period, 2 weeks prior to CMA block (lowest weekly beta on record) (2023-04-17 - 2023-04-21) : -0.00736
- ATVI beta - 1 week period, first full trading week after CMA block announcement (2023-05-01 - 2023-05-05): 1.1455
All beta readings above are relative to the Nasdaq composite.
I also have scatter and line plots available at my disposable which show there is a clearly defined "before" and "after" period in terms of the beta readings (before being prior to any regulatory concern). If you want data (beta readings) for any particular timeframe then let me know, I'll share the data.
What is important to know as far as the deal is concerned:
- Low beta (near zero) = good - lower volatility compared to the rest of the market, typically coincides with lower trading ranges, lower volume and narrower spreads, there is agreement on the current price and not many market participants are doing any kind of repositioning on the stock. The closer to zero the better, near zero readings signal little to no risk.
- Market equal beta (1 or near to 1) = bad - the market is treating it like any other stock. This indicates confidence in the deal is low, participants are trading it in line with expectations for the general indexes.
- High beta (far away from zero in either direction) = bad (unless it coincides with a big sudden move towards the agreed share purchase price of $95) - higher volatility compared to the rest of the market, higher trading ranges, higher volume, wider spreads, little agreement on what the current price should be, widespread repositioning.
Extra note: Negative beta readings mean the stock is moving in the opposite direction to the rest of the market for the period defined. This usually happens when good news for the stock is announced in a negative period for the general market or vice versa.