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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
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PaintTinJr

Member
That tells us nothing more - actually less - than the provisional finding text because if you read that, it was the CMA's remedies in this order:

1. Abandon the deal
2. Divest parts of ATVI
3. Find remedies with parties

Meaning that the least desirable CMA solution: point 3, needs Sony to agree to said remedies AFAIK from the wording of summary in the document - someone used about 10 pages back.
 
If they still pass the merger, after their due diligence, will everyone here be OK with it and stop complaining tho ? It's been 2+ years and people are still not over the Zenimax merger.

If they pass the merger it’s going to require pretty serious concessions that likely won’t change the status quo for at least a decade or longer

Sony will probably be pleased with that arrangement given that Microsoft was only starting with three years and no definitive concessions on parity

Certainly they still want it blocked though, but as of right now nothing will really change for a long time
 

Ozriel

M$FT
Look at the markets MS stays in - Windows, monopoly, office monopoly, azure - getting there. And they ditched phones, accessories and hardware devices, zune and … I’ve forgotten the others. They don’t stay in “profitable” markets - they try to establish monopolies and if they can’t they duck out.

Windows isn’t an OS monopoly. They have by far the largest marketshare for Desktop OS, but that’s merely because their biggest rival - Apple - ties their OS to pricey hardware.

They’re dominant in Office. Again, not a monopoly. Alternatives exist.

How is anyone supposed to take you serious if you claim Azure is on its way to being a cloud services monopoly? 😂

They’re competing in browsers with Edge, with only 5% marketshare. Bing has a fraction of users Google has, and yet they’re still in Search.


As far as the regulators are concerned the endeavor to monopolise is fine. Where MS has problems is they’re doing it the wrong way with this acquisition which is why it is dead awaiting resurrection in some other form.

You should negotiate a consulting gig with them so you can show them the right way to acquire a multi billion dollar publisher.
 

ToadMan

Member
parity on all aspects though. how is it parity if cod is available on gamepass for a dollar but costs $70 on PS? cant you see how that would be an issue for regulators?

GP is free with chips these days.

But I’ve concluded the $1 Live conversion is just hiding one cost behind another. Live isn’t worth the money at all - I mean it’s laughably bad compared to PS Plus - so basically Live is free and you’re paying for GP anyway. And then it starts to look expensive if you’re a person who happens to prefer a smattering of games not available on GP.

I guess a lot of people prefer to just buy what they play and only pay once. I do, but I still agree the game prices are eye watering these days and there is definitely some sticker shock. I mean even TOTK is $70 for a “last gen” or more game.

Can’t blame people for preferring to buy stuff though, but MS will try to make that option undesirable.
 

Ozriel

M$FT
If they pass the merger it’s going to require pretty serious concessions that likely won’t change the status quo for at least a decade or longer

Sony will probably be pleased with that arrangement given that Microsoft was only starting with three years and no definitive concessions on parity

Certainly they still want it blocked though, but as of right now nothing will really change for a long time

Most of the concessions they’ve offered are still wins for Xbox. All lead to increased revenue.

And the ‘status quo’ changes for Gamepass, since it’ll be getting a dramatic increase in value.

I’m not so sure Sony would be thrilled at an end to their COD marketing advantages by end 2024 and potential GamePass growth. Which is why they want it blocked.
 

RedC

Member
Imagine how grim MS software lineup would be if they hadn’t bought Bethesda. After an incredibly dry 2022 they would just have Forza this year.
Oooh, I can play this game.

Imagine if Sony hadn't bought Naughty Dog. Their successful template for big budget, blockbuster third person, action-adventure, cinematic, story-driven, graphical showcases with high production values may have never been created and shared with the rest of their first party studios.
 

NickFire

Member
Legit question, if CMA and EU approve this, will that pressure FTC to do the same quicker than their current timeline ?
It actually might if the people in charge start to worry about optics from a potential loss. Right now, IMO, the FTC is sitting in a strong position whereby they can look tough without doing all that much. If MS gets blocked across the pond, the FTC will probably "win" their case by default (MS withdrawing from deal). But if FTC becomes last holdout, they will end up in a winner takes all proposition immediately. At that point I think political ambition comes into play. Do the people in charge stand to gain more by fighting to the end come hell or high water? Or by striking a deal they publicize as proof of their commitment and success for consumers? I do think that ramps up the pressure immensely on the FTC.
 

DrFigs

Member
Oooh, I can play this game.

Imagine if Sony hadn't bought Naughty Dog. Their successful template for big budget, blockbuster third person, action-adventure, cinematic, story-driven, graphical showcases with high production values may have never been created and shared with the rest of their first party studios.
yep and who could forget all those great Naughty Dog classics on the xbox.
 
Oooh, I can play this game.

Imagine if Sony hadn't bought Naughty Dog. Their successful template for big budget, blockbuster third person, action-adventure, cinematic, story-driven, graphical showcases with high production values may have never been created and shared with the rest of their first party studios.

thanks for letting us know how great and influential naugthy dog are. im sure all the other platforms were devastated at all the ip they lost when sony bought them. my memory is hazy though? can you remind me what they were?
 
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splattered

Member
it would though. CMA pretty much closed the door without microsoft divesting call of duty. if they did a u turn on that now and approved, it would make them look useless. they didnt want to accept the 10 year deal before so why would they all of a sudden change their stance?

Because they took that initial stance before they really sat down with all parties and further investigated into the reality of the industry and this acquisition... things can change.
 

Damn. I would've thought that if the current console split is 2:1, and with the popularity of games like CoD on consoles, then Xbox's numbers should be around half of Sony's, right? about a 6% for Xbox.
But if somehow it's even lower than that, ho-lee. I don't know if this has to do with the whole "Xbox users just wait until it's on Gamepass" or if they just don't really spend that much in microtransactions. Interesting numbers, nonetheless.
 

BennyBlanco

aka IMurRIVAL69
Oooh, I can play this game.

Imagine if Sony hadn't bought Naughty Dog. Their successful template for big budget, blockbuster third person, action-adventure, cinematic, story-driven, graphical showcases with high production values may have never been created and shared with the rest of their first party studios.

Damn. I might like the modern Sony games more in your scenario.
 

ToadMan

Member
Windows isn’t an OS monopoly. They have by far the largest marketshare for Desktop OS, but that’s merely because their biggest rival - Apple - ties their OS to pricey hardware.

They’re dominant in Office. Again, not a monopoly. Alternatives exist.

Lol.

How is anyone supposed to take you serious if you claim Azure is on its way to being a cloud services monopoly? 😂

Getting there - lets see how they do. AWS is putting up a fight.

They’re competing in browsers with Edge, with only 5% marketshare. Bing has a fraction of users Google has, and yet they’re still in Search.

Browsers … another example of MS falling foul of the FTC.

That’s why we have a choice of browsers and we’re not paying a sub to use one these days. MS wanted to kill off other browsers when the internet was still a nerd playground.

You should negotiate a consulting gig with them so you can show them the right way to acquire a multi billion dollar publisher.

I worked for blue chip IT already. Been there, done it, banked the checks.
 
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Three

Member
Damn. I would've thought that if the current console split is 2:1, and with the popularity of games like CoD on consoles, then Xbox's numbers should be around half of Sony's, right? about a 6% for Xbox.
But if somehow it's even lower than that, ho-lee. I don't know if this has to do with the whole "Xbox users just wait until it's on Gamepass" or if they just don't really spend that much in microtransactions. Interesting numbers, nonetheless.
It's likely close to but just under 10%. MS has gone in and out of that threshold depending on the quarter. May have changed more recently though.
 
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RedC

Member
yep and who could forget all those great Naughty Dog classics on the xbox.
Fair point, but that could've changed in the future had they not been acquired by a platform holder.

My point is it's all useless speculation.

If MS hadn't acquired Bethesda, then they obviously would've made other moves to fill in the gaps.
 
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for how long though? it doesnt end after activision does it? how long before we hear about another publisher being acquired and it starts all over again? worst generation ever for people who just want to discuss games and not console or corporation wars.
The modern gamer fancies himself an industry analyst, just waiting in the wing to tell everyone why xyz is so important and how things should work out.
 

DrFigs

Member
Damn. I would've thought that if the current console split is 2:1, and with the popularity of games like CoD on consoles, then Xbox's numbers should be around half of Sony's, right? about a 6% for Xbox.
But if somehow it's even lower than that, ho-lee. I don't know if this has to do with the whole "Xbox users just wait until it's on Gamepass" or if they just don't really spend that much in microtransactions. Interesting numbers, nonetheless.
I wonder if there's data on this? My guess is that there probably really is some conditioning on xbox gamers to not spend money. Like how there is price discrimination on android and apple devices.

edit: well nevermind, if it's only a 4% point difference.
 
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RedC

Member
thanks for letting us know how great and influential naugthy dog are. im sure all the other platforms were devastated at all the ip they lost when sony bought them. my memory is hazy though? can you remind me what they were?
No future games are obligated to release on your preferred platform of choice.

To think otherwise is entitlement.
 
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Ozriel

M$FT
$70 x 20 million is around 1.4 billion. Ballpark for beginning some estimates, annually.

COD doesn’t sell 20 million on any single console at anywhere near full price. you’d also have to take out platform royalties.


Getting there - lets see how they do. AWS is putting up a fight.

AWS - 32%
Azure - 23%
Google - 11%

“Microsoft is on their way to a monopoly” 😀
 

Varteras

Member
If MS offers all ABK games on all platforms and services for 10 years at total parity (where possible), pays a third-party to oversee their ABK operations, and agrees to a 10-year review of the industry where regulators could extend the remedy or call it good, I don't know how a regulator can say no to that without having an interest outside the scope of their job.

If my grandma had wheels she'd be a bike.

I wanna ride her either way.
 

DeepEnigma

Gold Member
When the pros and arm chairs all say 100 different things every day, you can usually parse through and pick which ones you think are right to arrive at your conclusion.
If You Say So Shrug GIF
 

GHG

Gold Member
Stock price moved significantly on these articles dropping and then it didnt, sold back off immediately which indicates the headlines don't have substance:

CJgl208.jpg


No change in the options market implied volatility either.

The people with the money haven't changed their opinions either way as a result of these reports, volume is largely unchanged for the day but more people are buying calls and the short interest has dropped.

There needs to be follow through from today's move in order to mark a sentiment change:

EwpdyUb.jpg


The market is treating the EU reports as tentatively positive but not a significant development for now.
 
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Thirty7ven

Banned
Most of the concessions they’ve offered are still wins for Xbox. All lead to increased revenue.

And the ‘status quo’ changes for Gamepass, since it’ll be getting a dramatic increase in value.

I’m not so sure Sony would be thrilled at an end to their COD marketing advantages by end 2024 and potential GamePass growth. Which is why they want it blocked.

By the end of 2024 the market will pretty much defined. It means nothing for this gen as far as PlayStation goes.

Sony will have to go out there and secure a T2 or an EA. At the minimum a Capcom and SE for the hardcore IP.

If not then I’m sorry, they can keep spending their money on stupid ass shit like the EV market and continue to funnel billions to the music and movie industry. They don’t even leverage their movie IP in games so it’s hard feel much sympathy for them considering gaming has gotten so large and PlayStation has become their prized jewel.
 

PaintTinJr

Member
Windows isn’t an OS monopoly. They have by far the largest marketshare for Desktop OS, but that’s merely because their biggest rival - Apple - ties their OS to pricey hardware.

They’re dominant in Office. Again, not a monopoly. Alternatives exist.

How is anyone supposed to take you serious if you claim Azure is on its way to being a cloud services monopoly? 😂

They’re competing in browsers with Edge, with only 5% marketshare. Bing has a fraction of users Google has, and yet they’re still in Search.




You should negotiate a consulting gig with them so you can show them the right way to acquire a multi billion dollar publisher.
It is a monopoly of "Selling" OS licenses. Nothing else can sell an OS like Windows does, so their market share for Sold OSes is much higher than their installed device marketshare, and same with Microsoft selling Office software licenses and subs. Regulators are about "markets", but its really about the money in those markets, rather than the share just for presence like, for example Libre Office, GIMP or Blender market share, Android and IOS marketshare is only a thing because of Play and the App store, which doesn't compete with Windows as the 95% marketshare OS for GAF-IGN type gaming.
 

NickFire

Member
If they still pass the merger, after their due diligence, will everyone here be OK with it and stop complaining tho ? It's been 2+ years and people are still not over the Zenimax merger.
The question is framed as if consumers are wrong for not smiling when access to games are restricted due to non-gaming revenue. I disagree with the proposition that people need to get over that.

Can only speak for myself, but I don't care one bit who sells the most consoles. My opposition to this deal is because MS is already punishing me for not buying their most recent console by restricting access to all Bethesda games from me, and is now angling to control the biggest game that I happen to enjoy more than most games. Whether they intended that effect or not is irrelevant, but the notion they did not intend it is pretty tough to believe. Regardless, I don't trust them to not break their word on behavioral remedies if that means they can potentially corner a market. They are not opposed to loss leaders obviously ($1 for 3 years), so what's a few million in fines to them?
 

Punished Miku

Human Rights Subscription Service
How much is Microsoft paying for this on GamePass?
I personally have always argued that even MS wouldn't find it worth it to fully foot the bill on GP. It honestly only makes sense if you're acquiring the publisher. If MS owns it, they pay salaries for the devs, get the marketing deal for free, but lose a portion of potential sales, but also can sell DLC still. It makes sense for them to put it on GP. Sony could try and negotiate it on PS+ but it would be ridiculous to do that without significant compensation. Selling it retail is a whole different story. I said this earlier and everyone laughed at me, but it's just common sense. Do you guys expect the government to make MS give the game away for free?
 
By the end of 2024 the market will pretty much defined. It means nothing for this gen as far as PlayStation goes.

Sony will have to go out there and secure a T2 or an EA. At the minimum a Capcom and SE for the hardcore IP.

If not then I’m sorry, they can keep spending their money on stupid ass shit like the EV market and continue to funnel billions to the music and movie industry. They don’t even leverage their movie IP in games so it’s hard feel much sympathy for them considering gaming has gotten so large and PlayStation has become their prized jewel.
Movie-tie in games have historically been pretty shitty and what they are already doing seems to work. Their games are being made into movies and shows which have been very well received.
 
If MS offers all ABK games on all platforms and services for 10 years at total parity (where possible), pays a third-party to oversee their ABK operations, and agrees to a 10-year review of the industry where regulators could extend the remedy or call it good, I don't know how a regulator can say no to that without having an interest outside the scope of their job.

i could see it going through with such concessions. all the regulators want is for microsoft to be unable to use call of duty to gain an advantage in any way. sony obviously want a guarantee that call of duty will continue to release on PS even beyond 10 years. this shouldnt be an issue for microsoft if what they say is true.
 
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