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[ThirdEye]

Yes, because when you get a replacement from Microsoft it shows in the NPD numbers.

Oh, wait....

Didn't you know shipment is called "sold (to retailers)" in Microsoft's book? :lol

 

[Beer Monkey]

Not new for me. Xbox360 is doing bad sales wise, just as much Xbox did, and we know what happended with Xbox...

It got a kick-ass successor that more people were willing to buy at twice the price?

 

[belvedere]

The only thing the author was wrong about is the hilarious dedication from blind followers.:lol

 

[WickedLaharl]

Defective units are definitely circulating to jack up the figures.

dude the 360 would like totally be at 20 million sold if they were counting defective units also!

 

[Green Shinobi]

What's great is how this doesn't even matter since the 360 is molesting the PS3 and Wii in the barn when it comes to software sales.

 

[NinSoX]

What's great is how this doesn't even matter since the 360 is molesting the PS3 and Wii in the barn when it comes to software sales.

MS buying 50% of the software

 

[jimbo]

Well, Nintendo's at 6.5 million right now. They seem to be producing 1 million per month. There are 8 months left in the year. Now, if they can't improve production, that means a ceiling of 14.5 million by year's end.

MS is at around 9 million right now. They're doing about 300k in NA each month (counting Canada), and since we can count on them not running out, we can greatly increase that figure for the last three months of the year. So I'd say about 3-3.5 million in NA for the rest of the year. Maybe 30-50k in Japan. Euro numbers, who knows, lets say they pull off a million for the rest of the year. So that's like four and a half mill, onto the nine-ish they have now...puts them at about 14 mill.

Like you, I think it falls on the slightly unlikely side of things, but it's extremely doable.

Your numbers are unrealistic for the 360. You don't really need to do monthly math to see that. Even if you consider that it only sold 8 million units up until the end of last year, and it sold ~ 1 million in 2005, that means the 360 sold around 7 million last year.

If you just go off of that number the 360 would have to sell exactly the same thing it did last year for it to be at only 14 million sold by the end of this year.

All evidence that shows the 360 is doing better in all territories month for month this year compared to last year speaks against this. And if you account for sales spikes from Halo 3, GTA4, the Elite introduction and a possible price drop later this year there is no way in hell the 360 will only end up doing what it did last year. It's basically impossible for the 360 to sell at a slow enough pace for your scenario to take place.

 

[PC Gaijin]

Who the heck is Monitor110 anyway?

Looks like a bunch of guys that missed the dot com bubble by about ten years. I worked at a couple of dot bombs back then, and their web site has the stench of "a whole lot of horseshit hoping for an IPO". Didn't run across "Web 2.0" anywhere on the site, but I wasn't looking very hard... :lol

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

Your numbers are unrealistic for the 360. You don't really need to do monthly math to see that. Even if you consider that it only sold 8 million units up until the end of last year, and it sold ~ 1 million in 2005, that means the 360 sold around 7 million last year.

If you just go off of that number the 360 would have to sell exactly the same thing it did last year for it to be at only 14 million sold by the end of this year.

All evidence that shows the 360 is doing better in all territories month for month this year compared to last year speaks against this. And if you account for sales spikes from Halo 3, GTA4, the Elite introduction and a possible price drop later this year there is no way in hell the 360 will only end up doing what it did last year. It's basically impossible for the 360 to sell at a slow enough pace for your scenario to take place.

I suppose we'll see, but for what it's worth, I was also somewhat conservative in assuming Nintendo will only have 1 million Wiis WW to sell each month.

 

[davepoobond]

waah waah waah . . . MSFT can stuff the channel all they like. That doesn't show up in NPD numbers since those track actual retail sales. All stuffing the channel gets you is accelerated revenues. And any accelerate revenues from a few extra 360s pushed into the channel is barely above noise level on the scale of Microsoft's books.

so i guess its more at a simmer rather than a full on "cook"?

 

[Joe211]

Well, Nintendo's at 6.5 million right now. They seem to be producing 1 million per month. There are 8 months left in the year. Now, if they can't improve production, that means a ceiling of 14.5 million by year's end.

MS is at around 9 million right now. They're doing about 300k in NA each month (counting Canada), and since we can count on them not running out, we can greatly increase that figure for the last three months of the year. So I'd say about 3-3.5 million in NA for the rest of the year. Maybe 30-50k in Japan. Euro numbers, who knows, lets say they pull off a million for the rest of the year. So that's like four and a half mill, onto the nine-ish they have now...puts them at about 14 mill.

Like you, I think it falls on the slightly unlikely side of things, but it's extremely doable.

There is nothing "Hi tech" in the Wii that could suggest this

 

[Xisiqomelir]

So, can I get a GAFsensus on what the 360 LTD is worldwide? I've heard a wide variety of numbers, most of them in the 9.X M region.

 

[jimbo]

I suppose we'll see, but for what it's worth, I was also somewhat conservative in assuming Nintendo will only have 1 million Wiis WW to sell each month.

Even so, basically it comes down to this: In order for the Wii to catch it this year the BEST possible situation for the Wii would have to happen while at the same time the WORST possible situation for the 360.

You can make a strong argument for the best possible situation happening for the Wii. So far there are no signs to it slowing down. But I don't think there's one person that would argue that Halo 3, GTA4, the many others, the Elite sku, not to mention a possible price drop can happen for the 360 and there not be a single spike in sales over what it does normaly. There's just no way that the "WORST" possible situation can take place for the 360, even IF the BEST possible situation for the Wii happens.

Does that make any sense at all? I'm beginning to confuse myself here.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

There is nothing "Hi tech" in the Wii that could suggest this

No, but the demand is heavy. Heavier than any other console has ever demanded over such a long course of time worldwide. Even if the Wii was a Popsicle with Mario's face on it, they couldn't be making many more than they are without opening up new lines.

Even so, basically it comes down to this: In order for the Wii to catch it this year the BEST possible situation for the Wii would have to happen while at the same time the WORST possible situation for the 360.

Before I go on this, keep in mind I said it was pretty unlikely, as you said. I just believe it's a bit more likely than you do. I still am less than 50% sure that it would. Anyway.

The best possible scenario for Wii is increasing production to 1.25 mill per month as they hoped to. That would put the Wii at 16.5 million WW.

The worst possible scenario for the 360 is not far from what I mentioned, about 14 million. That's a 2.5 million cushion, aka a gap wide enough to drive a truck though. I don't think we need both of these eventualities to occur for Wii to overtake the 360.

That said, it's nothing more than a speculation on a scenario that I believe possible but highly unlikely. So I'm just going to leave it be now.

 

[Joe211]

Even so, basically it comes down to this: In order for the Wii to catch it this year the BEST possible situation for the Wii would have to happen while at the same time the WORST possible situation for the 360.

You can make a strong argument for the best possible situation happening for the Wii. So far there are no signs to it slowing down. But I don't think there's one person that would argue that Halo 3, GTA4, the many others, the Elite sku can happen for the 360 and there not be a single spike in sales over what it does normaly. There's just no way that the WORST possible situation can take place for the 360, even IF the BEST possible situation for the Wii happens.

Does that make any sense at all? I'm beginning to confuse myself here.

yeah it makes sense but you forgot the PS3 factor

No, but the demand is heavy. Heavier than any other console has ever demanded over such a long course of time worldwide. Even if the Wii was a Popsicle with Mario's face on it, they couldn't be making many more than they are without opening up new lines.

I think that's what they are trying to do and obviously it will happen before 2008 cause they can't miss Christmas

 

[DCharlie]

Looks like a bunch of guys that missed the dot com bubble by about ten years. I worked at a couple of dot bombs back then, and their web site has the stench of "a whole lot of horseshit hoping for an IPO". Didn't run across "Web 2.0" anywhere on the site, but I wasn't looking very hard...

the software has it's usage - but erm... here - this guy sums up what the software does/doesn't do and highlights some of the issues :

http://seekingalpha.com/article/17389

 

[Pimpbaa]

The only things cooking are 360 consoles themselves hur hur. Seriously, hurry up with those damn 65nm cpus.

 

[starship]

The gap between 360 and Wii are 3m right now. Nintendo can sell at least 2m more Wii than 360 this year in Japan alone, so if they can sell 1m more Wii than 360 elsewhere, they can gain the leadership. At this pace (selling +100k more than 360 every month in the US) this is very unlikely that the Wii wouldn't become the market leader by the end of the year.
Also Nintendo only shipped 3.2m by the end of 2006 and they ship +3m in the past 3 months, so this is obvious that production capacity is higher than 1m monthly and will increase even more in the near future.

 

[jimbo]

No, but the demand is heavy. Heavier than any other console has ever demanded over such a long course of time worldwide. Even if the Wii was a Popsicle with Mario's face on it, they couldn't be making many more than they are without opening up new lines.



Before I go on this, keep in mind I said it was pretty unlikely, as you said. I just believe it's a bit more likely than you do. I still am less than 50% sure that it would. Anyway.

The best possible scenario for Wii is increasing production to 1.25 mill per month as they hoped to. That would put the Wii at 16.5 million WW.

The worst possible scenario for the 360 is not far from what I mentioned, about 14 million. That's a 2.5 million cushion, aka a gap wide enough to drive a truck though. I don't think we need both of these eventualities to occur for Wii to overtake the 360.

That said, it's nothing more than a speculation on a scenario that I believe possible but highly unlikely. So I'm just going to leave it be now.

I know you believe it's highly unlikely. We just don't agree on what the "worst possible scenario" for the 360 is. I don't think your "worst possible scenario" is in any way shape or form possible. Considering it sold ~7 million last year and has so far this year shown to sell better than it did last year, what possible reason do you have for it only to MATCH what it did last year and get only 14 million units?

In other words how is it possible for the 360 to only sell the same amount it sold last year considering it has so far outpaced what it did by this point last year and also with its upcoming game line-up and inevitable boost from a new SKU? It would actually have to sell LESS than it did last year from now until the end of the year for that to happen.

I just curious to know why you believe that this scenario could take place.

 

[Nightstick11]

jimbo, as usual you're delusional about the reality.

The Wii made 2/3 of the Xbox 360's userbase in four months. As in, they went from 0-->6.5 million in four months. Xbox 360 had a 12-month headstart. You reaaallllyyy don't see where this is trending?

Let's review the facts.

Xbox 360 is only selling in 2 markets. Scratch Japan out because they aren't even competing there. Even then, it isn't selling exceptionally well in NA and Europe.

Wii is outselling it in all 3 markets at a rapid pace. And it is supply-constrained. Once production gets rolling, Wii will do higher than the 1+million a month it is currently doing.

By January 1 2008, Wii will probably have a larger userbase than Xbox360+PS3 combined.

 

[open_mouth_]

Wii will surpass 360 in '08, but 360 will put up a heck of a fight from then on out and it should be able to dominate the PS3 and stay pretty close to the Wii in the territories outside Japan.

 

[Nightstick11]

I don't know about 360 being able to put up "heck of a fight" anywhere outside North America. This virtually ensures that the Wii will be the overwhelming market leader in a global sense, unless Sony pulls a Microsoft and slashes the PS3 by 100 bucks and packs in 2 free games.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

I know you believe it's highly unlikely. We just don't agree on what the "worst possible scenario" for the 360 is. I don't think your "worst possible scenario" is in any way shape or form possible. Considering it sold ~7 million last year and has so far this year shown to sell better than it did last year, what possible reason do you have for it only to MATCH what it did last year and get only 14 million units?

In other words how is it possible for the 360 to only sell the same amount it sold last year considering it has so far outpaced what it did by this point last year and also with its upcoming game line-up and inevitable boost from a new SKU? It would actually have to sell LESS than it did last year from now until the end of the year for that to happen.

I just curious to know why you believe that this scenario could take place.

My reasons for thinking it is within the realm of possiblity to only match what it did last year:
1. They now have competition.
2. I've a hunch they aren't selling as well in Europe as they were.
3. Barring a price drop (and this is their worst possible scenario so let's run with that), I feel that all else aside, the system will sell worse in its second year than its first. Naturally, the big hits it has coming are going to counteract that, but I don't see it being so far off that all it would do is stop attrition.

 

[The End]

I'd totally believe this. When I bought my 360 from bestbuy a couple weeks ago, it was a NFS:Most Wanted bundle from last august.

 

[jimbo]

My reasons for thinking it is within the realm of possiblity to only match what it did last year:
1. They now have competition.
2. I've a hunch they aren't selling as well in Europe as they were.
3. Barring a price drop (and this is their worst possible scenario so let's run with that), I feel that all else aside, the system will sell worse in its second year than its first. Naturally, the big hits it has coming are going to counteract that, but I don't see it being so far off that all it would do is stop attrition.

Fair enough, but I must ask.

In reality competition isn't stopping it from selling better in the US than last year(this has been proven so far by the NPD), it's actually selling better in Japan week for week as shown by MC(let me say that again ...it's doing better in JAPAN), so why would it be doing worse in Europe? Not only is it against the trend(and against pretty much all of the reports we've had from people they believe it's doing better in Europe)....but it's had significant software in the weekly European charts consistently since Nov, something it was not doing consistently last year. So what are you basing your hunch on?

And I'm sorry, but I am a firm believer in the old software drives hardware. Halo sold the first Xbox, Halo 2 the same...yet Halo 3 and GTA4 will not do anything significant for it? Come on now.

 

[arne]

Do you guys do math?

For wii to catch x360, given a 3m gap, the wii needs to outsell the x360 by nearly 400k EVERY MONTH until end of December, worldwide. That's to draw equal.

Now, that is absolutely do-able. To do so the Wii has to cover 200k in Japan, 100k in US and 100k in Europe every MONTH WITHOUT MISSING A BEAT.

This also assumes -- no system sellers, no price drops, and no large discrepancy between the differences in # of consoles sold over the holidays.

 

[Pimpwerx]

I don't know about 360 being able to put up "heck of a fight" anywhere outside North America. This virtually ensures that the Wii will be the overwhelming market leader in a global sense, unless Sony pulls a Microsoft and slashes the PS3 by 100 bucks and packs in 2 free games.

MS could well end up in 3rd place worldwide again by the end of this gen.

The only interesting thing in that article was the suggestion that the Elite is an SKU made to generate quick sales for annual report purposes. That's a pretty cynical view, but an interesting hypothetical. PEACE.

 

[Ryudo]

jimbo, as usual you're delusional about the reality.

The Wii made 2/3 of the Xbox 360's userbase in four months. As in, they went from 0-->6.5 million in four months. Xbox 360 had a 12-month headstart. You reaaallllyyy don't see where this is trending?

Let's review the facts.

Xbox 360 is only selling in 2 markets. Scratch Japan out because they aren't even competing there. Even then, it isn't selling exceptionally well in NA and Europe.

Wii is outselling it in all 3 markets at a rapid pace. And it is supply-constrained. Once production gets rolling, Wii will do higher than the 1+million a month it is currently doing.

By January 1 2008, Wii will probably have a larger userbase than Xbox360+PS3 combined.

The wii sales are simply awesome, its a testament to making things cheaply and yet not appearing that way to consumers. I dont think anyone would believe that wii software actually deserves these sales, so again its just amazing to me.

 

[Green Shinobi]

MS could well end up in 3rd place worldwide again by the end of this gen.

No.

The PS3 is all but guaranteed a third place finish. I see absolutely no scenario under which the PS3 could catch the 360, let alone the Wii, by 2010.

 

[Nightstick11]

Fair enough, but I must ask.

In reality competition isn't stopping it from selling better in the US than last year(this has been proven so far by the NPD), it's actually selling better in Japan week for week as shown by MC(let me say that again ...it's doing better in JAPAN), so why would it be doing worse in Europe? Not only is it against the trend(and against pretty much all of the reports we've had from people they believe it's doing better in Europe)....but it's had significant software in the weekly European charts consistently since Nov, something it was not doing consistently last year. So what are you basing your hunch on?

And I'm sorry, but I am a firm believer in the old software drives hardware. Halo sold the first Xbox, Halo 2 the same...yet Halo 3 and GTA4 will not do anything significant for it? Come on now.

Halo and Halo 2 combined pushed the Xbox to a piddly 20 million or so userbase. What's your point?

As I stated before, it doesn't matter whether it's doing better in Japan or not, because it's insignificant either way.

I am also a firm believer in the old software drives hardware, and it is probably too late for Microsoft to change the image of the 360 to the "everybody" console image that PS2 and SNES had.

Come on now, Jimbo. It's not only mathematically likely that Wii will surpass 360 this year, because it's very reasonable to assume that when Wii is no longer supply-constrained its monthly sales will trounce the 360's far more than it is doing currently, but on the flip side I would say it's highly UNLIKELY that the 360 will have a higher installed base than the Wii by 2008.

 

[Deku]

Wow, what a conspiracy-laden load of crap.

1) It's well known they stuffed the channel in Q4.
2) The cut in shipment figures through June is likely a result.
3) Cut shipment figures could also be a strategic move to draw down inventory ahead of the die-shrink.

Just to anchor this discussion.
How many 360s have they sold through the end of February?

 

[mambadragon]

Are we really supposed to take much from a piece that cites Wikipedia as a source?

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

The wii sales are simply awesome, its a testament to making things cheaply and yet not appearing that way to consumers. I dont think anyone would believe that wii software actually deserves these sales, so again its just amazing to me.

Hahahahahhaha that was about as stealthy as rambo ****ing III

 

[Ryudo]

Hahahahahhaha that was about as stealthy as rambo ****ing III

But being a PAL gamer, can you blame me ?

 

[arne]

Hahahahahhaha that was about as stealthy as rambo ****ing III

just about a stealthy as nightstick11's brand of choice

 

[Green Shinobi]

Halo and Halo 2 combined pushed the Xbox to a piddly 20 million or so userbase. What's your point?

As I stated before, it doesn't matter whether it's doing better in Japan or not, because it's insignificant either way.

I am also a firm believer in the old software drives hardware, and it is probably too late for Microsoft to change the image of the 360 to the "everybody" console image that PS2 and SNES had.

Come on now, Jimbo. It's not only mathematically likely that Wii will surpass 360 this year, because it's very reasonable to assume that when Wii is no longer supply-constrained its monthly sales will trounce the 360's far more than it is doing currently, but on the flip side I would say it's highly UNLIKELY that the 360 will have a higher installed base than the Wii by 2008.

Okay, but you're ignoring a few things, like the majority of EA-type gamers going with the MS system over the Sony system this gen, and the fact that the 360 is getting GTA and will be the first to market with a realistic racing sim this gen.

I also doubt that any console is going to get the "everybody" console image this gen. The PS3 WILL finish in last place, and the Wii isn't getting the library to be more than a second console for gamers. It's a great novelty that draws in non-gamers though, but I doubt it will have much of an effect on the PS3 or 360 except in Japan, where it will steal many of the users who went with Sony consoles the last two gens.

 

[Joe211]

MS could well end up in 3rd place worldwide again by the end of this gen.

The only interesting thing in that article was the suggestion that the Elite is an SKU made to generate quick sales for annual report purposes. That's a pretty cynical view, but an interesting hypothetical. PEACE.

that's the most predictable scenario

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

just about a stealthy as nightstick11's brand of choice

nightstick has been in my 'gahiggidy' pile of posters for a while now.

 

[Green Shinobi]

that's the most predictable scenario

Under what scenario does the PS3 pass either of its competitors? It's getting trounced in Japan, and there's no reason MS can't fend them off in Europe with a price cut given its upcoming library. It's also the last place system in North America.

 

[DemonSwordsman]

Under what scenario does the PS3 pass either of its competitors? It's getting trounced in Japan, and there's no reason MS can't fend them off in Europe with a price cut given its upcoming library. It's also the last place system in North America.

the one where it gets pricedrops.

 

[jimbo]

Halo and Halo 2 combined pushed the Xbox to a piddly 20 million or so userbase. What's your point?

As I stated before, it doesn't matter whether it's doing better in Japan or not, because it's insignificant either way.

I am also a firm believer in the old software drives hardware, and it is probably too late for Microsoft to change the image of the 360 to the "everybody" console image that PS2 and SNES had.

Come on now, Jimbo. It's not only mathematically likely that Wii will surpass 360 this year, because it's very reasonable to assume that when Wii is no longer supply-constrained its monthly sales will trounce the 360's far more than it is doing currently, but on the flip side I would say it's highly UNLIKELY that the 360 will have a higher installed base than the Wii by 2008.

You make it sound as if that's insignificant when in reality the 360 will be close to that number WITHOUT a HALO by the time Halo 3 comes out at a price of $399 with more than a year gone by without price drops. Now I'm not going to tell you that Halo 3 will boost the user base by 20 million but if you believe that Halo 3 will not significantly boost the 360's user base, and you're relying on the old, "whoever is interested in Halo already bought a 360" line of thought, you're in for a rude awakening.

Once you factor that in, factor in what GTA did for the PS2. You can take a large portion of that effect and also add it to the 360, as it's now a simultaneous release.

Factor in games like Blue Dragon, Eternal Sonata, Lost Odyssey, DMC....which the Xbox never had.....and you can add that effect to the 360 sales.

Maybe I am dillusional, but my brain just doesn't understand how it's "reasonable" to say that the Wii will continue to sell over 1 million a month without missing a beat for the rest of the year while at the same time saying those things I stated above won't have an effect on 360 sales.

I guess GTA fans, Halo fans, DMC4 fans, VF fans, etc etc just simply lost interest in playing their favorite franchises now that the Wii is out. They will all stop buying consoles that offer those games and stick with the Wii. Sorry, but that's just retarded to me.

 

[arne]

You make it sound as if that's insignificant when in reality the 360 will be close to that number WITHOUT a HALO by the time Halo 3 comes out at a price of $399 with more than a year gone by without price drops. Now I'm not going to tell you that Halo 3 will boost the user base by 20 million but if you believe that Halo 3 will not significantly boost the 360's user base, and you're relying on the old, "whoever is interested in Halo already bought a 360" line of thought, you're in for a rude awakening.

Once you factor that in, factor in what GTA did for the PS2. You can take a large portion of that effect and also add it to the 360, as it's now a simultaneous release.

Factor in games like Blue Dragon, Eternal Sonata, Lost Odyssey, DMC....which the Xbox never had.....and you can add that effect to the 360 sales.

Maybe I am dillusional, but my brain just doesn't understand how it's "reasonable" to say that the Wii will continue to sell over 1 million a month without missing a beat for the rest of the year while at the same time saying those things I stated above won't have an effect on 360 sales.

I guess GTA fans, Halo fans, DMC4 fans, VF fans, etc etc just simply lost interest in playing their favorite franchises now that the Wii is out. They will all stop buying consoles that offer those games and stick with the Wii. Sorry, but that's just retarded to me.

jimbo, all is lost. the wiimote is the future of gaming.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

the one where it gets pricedrops.

You mean that impossible reality where it gets pricedrops that for some reason MS doesn't match?

 

[arne]

the one where it gets pricedrops.

that can't be matched by either of it's competitors and suddenly it's outselling the xbox 360 and/or the wii by over, say, 400k per month every month?

 

[HocusPocus]

The wii sales are simply awesome, its a testament to making things cheaply and yet not appearing that way to consumers. I dont think anyone would believe that wii software actually deserves these sales, so again its just amazing to me.

Hrmm. I'm still trying to figure out how a $250 console (and we all know you need to spend a lot more than that to get the full enjoyment out of it) is cheap. That's the old norm for a new system, and actually higher than Nintendo's last one.

 

[westical]

MS could well end up in 3rd place worldwide again by the end of this gen.

Again? They never have been third.

 

[jimbo]

jimbo, all is lost. the wiimote is the future of gaming.

Yep, it seems so. I have seen the light. Tomorrow I'm pawning my 1080p Sharp and getting ready for the Wii with one of these babies:

Come to PAPA!

 

[Joe211]

Under what scenario does the PS3 pass either of its competitors? It's getting trounced in Japan, and there's no reason MS can't fend them off in Europe with a price cut given its upcoming library. It's also the last place system in North America.

I don't know if the PS3 will surpass the Wii but I think everyone agree that MS won't beat Sony this gen
Upcoming library? Halo is not really popular besides the US

 

[jimbo]

I don't know if the PS3 will surpass the Wii but I think everyone agree that MS won't beat Sony this gen
Upcoming library? Halo is not really popular besides the US

I'm trying hard to figure out if you're being sarcastic.

 

[arne]

I don't know if the PS3 will surpass the Wii but I think everyone agree that MS won't beat Sony this gen
Upcoming library? Halo is not really popular besides the US

not everyone, judging from the responses in this thread.




anyway, considering that the thread turned into a runaway train of sales-age and not a discussion of the OP... it might be wise to call for it to be closed.