Castef
Banned
That's decent for Xbox One.
Actually, that's good.
That's decent for Xbox One.
So, did you understand how wrong you were, now? I hope so
Im at work at the moment and cant make a long post so i'll break down the sell through numbers I have for X1 a bit later today.
the earnings in general were a disappointmentDid any part of Microsoft do poorly? Seriously they fucking killed it this quarter.
No need man. There are just too many variables for anyone to draw any conclusion about this. I will admit that 10.5M is possible, unlikely, but possible.
But you're not account some simple facts into your equations.
Tier 1 markets are where Xbox One is competitive or sales adequately
PS4 is available in 123 markets, While Xbox One is available in only ~41
If there were any Tier 2 markets that had the potential sell 1.8 million or even 1 million since September 2014 it would have been place in the Tier 1 column. Fact
The further you move east, the weaker the Xbox brand gets. This is true even for the Tier 1 markets like France and Germany. Fact
Another fact that even with the LAUNCH of these other 29 markets in September (Q3 report) that Xbox One and Xbox 360 moved only 4.2M combined. Again we don't know the split.
UK is by far Xbox One's 2nd largest market not (Canada) and it took them a year to reach 1M. Again this is fact.
We have reports of Microsoft overshipping just like last year(900k beginning of 2013 in 13 markets) Fact
Your prediction 10.5M sold through with 11.5M-12M shipped
My prediction is 9.7M sold through
Wait, just starting to get the LoU bundle? It's almost February.
I'd go ahead and PM him, in case he's not paying attention.
So it seems safe to say that whatever Sony's channel volume comes in at, XB3 will be "considerably higher, in terms of units."
Any ideas on sales rates? Assuming no new shipments, how many weeks to clear each stockpile?
No need man. There are just too many variables for anyone to draw any conclusion about this. I will admit that 10.5M is possible, unlikely, but possible.
But you're not account some simple facts into your equations.
Tier 1 markets are where Xbox One is competitive or sales adequately
So you would expect the 610k number for tier 1 in CY2013 to be higher in CY2014 due to the extended tracking period (12 months) and the trends seen in other tier 1 countries. Now I'm not saying tier 1 accounted for another 5 million or anything. All I'm saying is those extra 9 markets will easily have made up at least another 610k at the very very least. It will no doubt be higher but lets use 610k as a baseline.
I think this is the key point which is somewhat questionable. It is possible that the trend for the UK/Germany/France does not hold up for other countries, even tier 1 countries.
There are all kinds of market pressures and forces that can affect some regions but not others.
I think this is the key point which is somewhat questionable. It is possible that the trend for the UK/Germany/France does not hold up for other countries, even tier 1 countries.
There are all kinds of market pressures and forces that can affect some regions but not others.
I don't know what pipe I was smoking but it wasn't good.
snip
I think this is the key point which is somewhat questionable. It is possible that the trend for the UK/Germany/France does not hold up for other countries, even tier 1 countries.
There are all kinds of market pressures and forces that can affect some regions but not others.
Nice post Zhuge.
It unlikely that over 12 months, the same 9 countries won't at least be flat YoY.
Thanks for this analysis, it's interesting. After going through it, it's logically hard to imagine the XB1 below 10 million. I think 10.5 million seems to be a pretty reasonable estimate of sold through as of the end of 2014.
Also interesting to see these points laid out when so many people were saying "no way above 10 million" in many other XB1-related sales threads. I'm not picking on anyone specifically, but when you do lay it out like this, it makes logical sense that that is very unlikely (XB1 below 10 million).
Congrats on being a member
I want to address the points you addressed where you say I haven't taken into account certain things.
Ok, so as we can see above. In CY2013 which accounted for 2 months of tracking we say the USA sell through more than 1.8 million units to end users. Outside of the USA we saw a total of 1.2 million units sold through to end users in the rest of the world which consisted of 12 tier 1 countries. That's a ratio of 1.5:1 in favour of the USA.
So lets break it down a bit more. The UK launched with 364k, France with 126k and Germany with 100k units sold through to end users by the end of CY2013. This means that 3 markets outside of the USA sold through 590k units with the additional 9 Tier 1 markets selling through 610k to end users. This gives us total sell through of 3 million units to end users as confirmed by Microsoft.
Now, lets look at 2014, there was no doubt that sales would be very high in the USA and the price drop there ensured that. We saw sales for the year increase from 1.8m in 2013 to 4.4m for CY2014. This gives Xbox One a total of 6.2 million sold through in the USA as of December 31st 2014.
Now, lets look at tier 1, the 12 markets outside of the USA. Well the UK sold through approximately 790k units till the end of November 2014, giving us a cumulative total of 1150k till that date. In France we saw 290k units sold through in the full CY2014 giving us a cumulative total of 416k in France. In Germany we saw 170k sold through till November 2014 giving us a cumulative 270k.
Overall this takes us to 8.65m sold through as a minimum based on the information above. (Everything below is not official numbers)
However, we are missing data for the UK and Germany for December. In December we can very safely say that the UK would have sold through more than 200k and Germany would have sold through more than 50k. It could easily be 300k+ or 350k+ combined but we'll go with the lower number of 250k as an estimate. That takes our cumulative total from 8.65m up to 8.90m which would cover CY2013 as well as CY2014 for the USA, UK, GER and FRA.
So 8.90m is very much confirmed. Now we need to add in the other tier 1 countries which account for a further 9 markets. In CY2013 these 9 markets shipped 610k cumulative. If we look at UK, GER and FRA for CY2014 we see these markets saw higher sales in 2014, this is because CY2014 is 12 months of tracking versus the launch of CY2013 which is 2 months of tracking. Here are some example,
The UK for example jumped from 364K in CY2013 to 800k+ in CY2014. France went from 126k in CY2013 to 290k in CY2014. As you can see, sales more than doubled in these regions.
So you would expect the 610k number for tier 1 in CY2013 to be higher in CY2014 due to the extended tracking period (12 months) and the trends seen in other tier 1 countries. Now I'm not saying tier 1 accounted for another 5 million or anything. All I'm saying is those extra 9 markets will easily have made up at least another 610k at the very very least. It will no doubt be higher but lets use 610k as a baseline.
So added to 8.90m + 0.61m we get 9.51m as an absolute minimum estimated guess for cumulative Xbox One sales in all tier 1 countries (13) until December 31st 2014. Now we have to look at tier 2 countries (which is 29 markets) and it'd be pretty obvious that whilst sales won't be massive, we'll still see some being bought. And whilst I don't want to throw an exact number around, it'll take cumulative sales over 10 million, especially when we low balled tier 1 numbers which will be higher than 610k.
So yeh. That's my analysis.
I like how you throw around stuff like it's fact when it's not. Refrain from using the word fact unless it's an actual fact as a lot of the stuff you said isn't true.
Just a minor correction: the XB1 launched in an additional 28 (not 29 AFAIK) countries in 2014, and not all of them had 4 months of sales. Here's the list with the launch dates:
September 2 - Chile and Colombia
September 4 - Japan
September 5 - Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Hungary, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Saudi Arabia, Slovakia, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Arab Emirates
September 15 - Israel
September 23 - Hong Kong, India, Korea, Singapore, South Africa, Taiwan
September 26 - Russia
September 29 - China
Besides, you're only mentioning the UK and France to argue that sales must have "more than doubled", but we know this is only true in these two countries.
It didn't "more than double" in Germany, at least not as far as we know, and it very likely didn't in Spain either.
Apoolgies, 28 markets for T2 then.
That's still 4 months of sales though, in the same way that CY2013 is 2 months of sales despite launching November 22nd. If it launches during that tracking period for the month it counts during that month.
Germany doubled as well. 100k in CY2013 and more than 170k in 2014. I would say over 200k easily in Germany by the end of the year. December is a big month.
My point about that though was more that 610k for tier 1 (9 markets) in 2013) would certainly not be less in 2014. Even Germany shows this, selling at least 70k more in 2014.
Spain too, we can estimate sold the same amount in 2014 as it did in 2013 if we look at the trends there.
But yeh, I don't see how any of my points are wrong?
1m UK was LTD, also it sold 110k+ on Black Friday week after that announcementWell many of these countries didn't have 4 months of sales... I mean it launched at the end of september in several markets.
I'm not sure how on the other hand you get to an "official" 8.65M sold through either based on just US, UK, FR and GER.
2013
WW: 3M
2014
USA 4.4M
FR 0.29M
GER 0.17M (although december is missing)
UK 1M (mid november)
That's already 8.86M and I didn't even adjust the number for the UK?
1m UK was LTD, also it sold 110k+ on Black Friday week after that announcement
Well many of these countries didn't have 4 months of sales... I mean it launched at the end of september in several markets.
Periodic updates would be super useful. Are you able to see shipments that come in to the DC as well?Didn't really look at sales rates (they never seem to be accurate). I can try looking this up next month and see if the numbers drop at the DC in any considerably way
Hmm. Well, maybe. lolSo yeh. That's my analysis.
Hmm. Well, maybe. lol
I still feel like you're overestimating T2 and even "T1.5" to some extent. I always felt like 610k in T1.5 was likely to be a generous estimate on Microsoft's part, and at the time, some insiders indicated the same. But MS put their name on it, so it's hard to dispute it. That said, I'm reluctant to simply toss in the same value again this year on the reasoning "they obviously are buying that much." And again, even if Spain is the weakest market in T1, they still spent €570 per console sold to advertise the launch, and by Microsoft's own estimation, that's one of their "strong" markets. There were eight other countries where they took pre-orders for months, compared them to the 25k in Spain which would've been cheaper to give away than advertise, and went, "Yeah, let's not even bother." So I'm not sure why you think these countries will provide such strong support for XB3 when MS had already determined that they wouldn't.
Anyway, you think they sell lots of XBoxen in not-US, and I think they hardly sell any, but we're both basing our arguments almost entirely on gut instinct, so there's probably not much point in bickering about it. I think you can't hit the numbers without a lot of handwaving, and you think it's hardly any handwaving at all. lol
That's why I think we're better off looking at the shipments and trying to work backwards from there. The observed 40% YOY drops for XB2 would put XB3 shipments at 11.8M, give or take, with a channel volume that depends entirely on whom you ask. lol
We don't know Sony's shipments yet, so we can't determine their channel volume, but given retail musings, you would agree that MS have more units in the channel than do Sony? There's no disputing XB3 stocks are currently higher than PS4, in terms the of absolute number of units, right?
How much higher, do you think? Verendus said Sony's shipments are a lot higher than most people think, but how high is that? I'd been think about 1M unsold, and maybe as high as 1.5M, but it seems like "most" people were expecting more like 500k unsold. Obviously, it's not going to be the 5:1 ratio they're seeing in the DC, but if Sony's channel weighs in at 1.5M units, where do you think that would put MS? Like, 2M, or maybe 2.5M? More? Surely not less. Last year, the gap was 600k units, with MS having 200% more units in the channel, and that gap seemed to go mostly unnoticed. If retail is now saying, "Wow, we're sitting on a lot of Bones," then it would seem the channels are "that much more" stuffed with Bones, but how much is "that," do we think? If the current gap is +500k/+33%, would that draw more attention than last year's +600k/+200%, or less?
So given Verendus' comment, what are you expecting PS4 channel volume to be at, and where would you put XB3 in relation? If Sony are at 1.5M, then I would expect MS to be at least 2M, and maybe as much as 2.5M. If Sony are down around the 1M range, then MS might top out at 2M. PS4 stocks seem "low to tight," depending on where you're looking, but XB3 stocks sound "excessive" in comparison, even in the US, where PS4 stocks don't seem super low. So how much excess are we talking, in units? If 600k extra units and triple the volume went unnoticed last year, how many extra units are there now, would you reckon?
I still feel like you're overestimating T2 and even "T1.5" to some extent. I always felt like 610k in T1.5 was likely to be a generous estimate on Microsoft's part, and at the time, some insiders indicated the same. But MS put their name on it, so it's hard to dispute it. That said, I'm reluctant to simply toss in the same value again this year on the reasoning "they obviously are buying that much."
Of course, Microsoft overshipped this holiday (again) and no doubt CY2015 Q1 will be very very low in terms of shipments. I think MS are trying to offset that with the permanent price drop in the UK + USA in order to move units faster.
I'd say over 19.5m for PS4.
Dont you think that Sony covering 120+ market need more unit in retail then MS needing to serve 40+ markets only.
I know some markets are pretty small but still small amount in 80+ retail market will add up quite a bit.
I'd say over 19.5m for PS4.
That's what I'm worried about. lol "So add in UK, France, and Germany, and then another 500-600k for the rest?"In regards to the bold, the numbers are what Microsoft get from GFK, NPD etc... they're the same numbers I'm using here. So the numbers I'm using are the exact same numbers Microsoft will use to work out their sell through.
Do you have any numbers for Canada? I was under the impression XB3 was doing comparatively poorly there.The Xbox still sells outside the US and UK. Canada would be an example of a market where the Xbox One would probably see growth YOY.
When was Spain at 51k? October? So less than equal after 10 months, including the Destiny launch? Plus, again, 51k, after nearly a year on the market, including aI honestly don't see why you think 12 months of tracking would be less than 2 months of tracking. Especially with the data from other tier 1 countries. Plus this applies to every product that 12 months will be higher than 2 months, especially in a launch year.
Okay, so 1M+ for Sony? Where do you think that would put MS? What if Sony come in at 1.5M, or 1.8M? Where would that put MS?Of course, Microsoft over shipped this holiday (again) and no doubt CY2015 Q1 will be very very low in terms of shipments. I think MS are trying to offset that with the permanent price drop in the UK + USA in order to move units faster.
I'd say over 19.5m for PS4.
SwiftDeath and I went round and round on this a few months ago, with him trying to find markets which would support that many units, but in the end, his argument always came back to, "But MS said so," so I decided there was no point in arguing about it. Sorry, but I still feel the same way, about the bickering and the subject itself.let's cut past the bullshit about trying to guess shipments:
why do you think that
Shipped?
I'm expecting well over 20M by now.
SwiftDeath and I went round and round on this a few months ago, with him trying to find markets which would support that many units, but in the end, his argument always came back to, "But MS said so," so I decided there was no point in arguing about it. Sorry, but I still feel the same way, about the bickering and the subject itself.
lol As I said, I already did, and it led nowhere.Do you really want to go down this road of disputing official numbers?
That's what I'm worried about. lol "So add in UK, France, and Germany, and then… another 500-600k for the rest?"
Do you have any numbers for Canada? I was under the impression XB3 was doing comparatively poorly there.
When was Spain at 51k? October? So less than equal after 10 months, including the Destiny launch? Plus, again, 51k, after nearly a year on the market, including aheavilyridiculously advertised holiday launch. That's what qualifies as a "strong market" for XB3, in Microsoft's estimation.
Okay, so 1M+ for Sony? Where do you think that would put MS? What if Sony come in at 1.5M, or 1.8M? Where would that put MS?
Congrats on being a member
I want to address the points you addressed where you say I haven't taken into account certain things.
I like how you throw around stuff like it's fact when it's not. Refrain from using the word fact unless it's an actual fact as a lot of the stuff you said isn't true.
You might want to look at the chart again. Lol he said sales doubled from 2013. Seriously?you can repeat this as many times as you want, but in the end both France and Germany likely doubled sales from 2013 (likely a little more than 2x, even)
Your chart actually proves that America and UK are indeed Xbox One's strongest markets. Let's also looks at all the blank parts in it also. Way too many unknowns if you ask me. Also Q3 when T2 launched still shows a shipment of only 4.2M shipment for the quarter which has Xbox One and Xbox 360 combined. Like I said France, Germany, China, and Japan all have Xbox one on life support. You simply are placing all of your analysis on two empty spots on your own chart.
After see this chart, 9.7M might be too generous. Unless you can provide evidence of some kind of sales boost in one of these 29 countries
Your chart actually proves that America and UK are indeed Xbox One's strongest markets. Let's also looks at all the blank parts in it also. Way too many unknowns if you ask me. Also Q3 when T2 launched still shows a shipment of only 4.2M shipment for the quarter which has Xbox One and Xbox 360 combined. Like I said France, Germany, China, and Japan all have Xbox one on life support. You simply are placing all of your analysis on two empty spots on your own chart.
After see this chart, 9.7M might be too generous. Unless you can provide evidence of some kind of sales boost in one of these 29 countries.
France did 24k a month last year
Germany did only 12k a month last year
You might want to look at the chart again. Lol he said sales doubled from 2013. Seriously?
If you can't work out that the above is more than double then I have no idea what you've been smoking haha.
Sony already said in their PR that they they were the best selling system in the UK for the holiday season. (Nov and Dec combined). I didn't say the US in my statement, you need to read it again. And no, sales didn't double per month there has been a dramatic decrease compared to 2013 (2 months average). I also did that for you since you like ignore certain information. How can you accurate provide any estimate when you keep saying 8.7M and the chart clearly reads 8.65m. But hey let's round it up for them it's only 50k, which by your own chart would be the equivalent of 2 extra months in France and 4 extra months in Germany.Correct. USA and UK are the two strongest markets for Xbox One with quite a number of sales accounting for those two markets alone.
Yes there are a number of unknowns but your figures are off. You say Q3 saw a combined shipment of 4.2m? It was actually 2.4m. If it was indeed 4.2m then we'd be over 15m shipped by now haha.
You say I'm placing my analysis on two empty spots.... yes.... that's exactly what I'm doing. I've already said that 8.7m is a base we can calculate and 8.9m is a base we can estimate (filling in Germany and UK december sales which are likely higher). So we already get 9 million units just there. Then you need to account for the other 9 tier 1 countries as well as the launches of tier 2 countries. Launches are always quite front loaded, even Japan can be used as an example for this and so tier 2 will likely count for a bit more than you expect now, but don't expect sales to be maintained over 2015.
If you think 9.7m is optimistic then I really have to say you don't know what you're talking about.
In fact if you think X1+360 shipped 4.2m in Q3 (when it shipped 2.4m) and still think sold through is less than 9.7m then there is something really really wrong with your calculations.
As I've said before, I take into account so many variables, historical data and current data and trends when making my posts and I don't just post any old crap.
They did though? Unless you can't do math or something.
4400k in 2014 for the US is more than double 1800k in 2013
290k in 2014 for France is double 126k in 2013
800k+ in 2014 for the UK is more than double 364k in 2013
With Germany I can't say 100% for certain it doubled, but when you factor in December it's quite hard not to say it's doubled.
Sony already said in their PR that they they were the best selling system in the UK for the holiday season. (Nov and Dec combined). I didn't say the US in my statement, you need to read it again. And no, sales didn't double per month there has been a dramatic decrease compared to 2013 (2 months average). I also did that for you since you like ignore certain information. How can you accurate provide any estimate when you keep saying 8.7M and the chart clearly reads 8.65m. But hey let's round it up for them it's only 50k, which by your own chart would be the equivalent of 2 extra months in France and 4 extra months in Germany.
You might as well be providing numbers for the site that is banned on here.
See, this is the problem when Microsoft doesn't release sold through numbers. Gaffers will have to do their own calculations and estimations and when the estimations don't line up, we start arguing and it usually gets nowhere. And sometimes it gets ugly
BruceLeeRoy is passing around some good shit.
Do you have any numbers for Canada? I was under the impression XB3 was doing comparatively poorly there.
His banking on the Tier 2 to generate 1.35M in under 4 months. I even conceded to his 10.5M (highly unlikely). But for him, 9.7M is not possible. I'm done with it.See, this is the problem when Microsoft doesn't release sold through numbers. Gaffers will have to do their own calculations and estimations and when the estimations don't line up, we start arguing and it usually gets nowhere. And sometimes it gets ugly
His banking on the Tier 2 to generate 1.35M in under 4 months. I even conceded to his 10.5M (highly unlikely). But for him, 9.7M is not possible. I'm done with it.
His banking on the Tier 2 to generate 1.35M in under 4 months.
I'm done with it
/shrug Actually, I question everything put in front of me. I looked at Microsoft's numbers and came away dubious, and I looked at Sony's numbers and they seemed reasonably legit, based on the information I had access to. There are others who look at both numbers and feel the opposite. Last year, I asked if 3M seemed high to anyone else, given the sales we could see, and I was told our "insiders" had indicated it was likely closer to 2.8M, but I have no idea exactly who said what. But like I said, I didn't see a lot of point in bickering about what may have been a 10% error in estimation, but I do think it's worthwhile to be cautious about multiplying it out to estimate demand.I'm sorry but it's just silly if you don't believe what MS and Sony report and therefore I have to disregard any posts you make about sales figures if you're not going to believe official numbers...
Wow, was Spain really 35k in 2013? I thought it was 25k. That means they only sold 16k in the first nine months of the year, or less than half of what they sold at launch. Given that drop, I don't see why is safe to assume they sold another 19k in the three months that followed. Any idea how UK, France, and Germany were tracking in September? Were they also down more than 50%?Spain was ~35k+ in January 2014 (2 months tracking)
Spain was ~51k+ in September 2014 (11 months tracking)
Using a very simple calculation we can say that after 13 months (so full CY2014) Spain would probably be around ~70k (with holiday boost in mind) which means it sold the same in CY2014 vs CY2013.
lol Okay, why?Lets wait and see.