StealthPandemic
Banned
Nice results!
That console was called the Wii, and it attracted people you would never see playing a PS360 or PSOne.
Wait, just starting to get the LoU bundle? It's almost February.My DC was over 5:1 last I checked. Unfortunately I wasn't checking during the holidays or even beginning of the year so can't help you there. Just saw this thread while working so I checked then. Our stores are starting to get the PS4 last of us bundle so those numbers could easily change in the future but I was comparing PS4 and the XB1 unity bundle
Wow.
I can't even balee it. Just incredible.
And yet your previous post says this:
The number is actually probably closer to 1.2 million, but with the range you give at 1 million USA sales, it goes from 2-2.5 million with your numbers and 2.4-3 million with mine.... your 360 estimate range ends up having a floor lower than mine and yet my prediction is "Impossible"? I also feel it's worth pointing out you can accept a 60+% ratio for the XBO but nothing over 50% for the 360 despite it being likely that they plan to phase the platform out over the next few years.
It sorta is, which is what I've been saying. One of the biggest markets in those 38 is Spain, where they probably sold less than 35k over 12 months. 28 of those countries only had access to it for less than four months. So if you figure 10 Spains at 35k each and a very generous 15k to cover four months of sales in each of the remaining 28, that only adds up to 770k. Add that to your 8.7M, and you only get 9.5M. And again, that seems a fairly generous estimate for those 38 countries. It's highly unlikely Tier 2 countries have averaged 15k each Sep-Dec. So to be clear, it seems like 9.5M would be the maximum, not the minimum.
I'm not sure I follow you. How does phasing out Xbox 360 make it likely that its US to ROW ratio would increase?I also feel it's worth pointing out you can accept a 60+% ratio for the XBO but nothing over 50% for the 360 despite it being likely that they plan to phase the platform out over the next few years.
Oh I'd definitely say they are over 10 million sold through.
That does mean however that they have a significant number of consoles in warehouses or on shelves. More than a million. I would imagine they'd be in countries where the Xbox did well as Microsoft will have moved stock. It feels like they've given up on everywhere other than NA countries and the UK.
Nope, you're forgetting that the 8.7m number excludes December for Germany and the UK (which is the busiest month) so using an estimate we can probably bump that number up to 8.8m or even 8.9m if you want to be optimistic.
In 2013, the other 9 tier 1 countries sold around ~610k alone. And from the
Nice. This is a helpful way to visualize it.XB1 = 15.1m - (360 shipments Apr-Dec 2014)
360 shipments Apr-Dec 2013 = 5.7m
(0%. drop off = 5.70) XB1 = 9.4m
(10% drop off = 5.13) XB1 = 10m
(20% drop off = 4.56) XB1 = 10.5m
(30% drop off = 3.99) XB1 = 11.1m
(40% drop off = 3.42) XB1 = 11.7m
(50% drop off = 2.85) XB1 = 12.3m
How much do we believe the shipments for 360 could drop by?
It should be easily over 9 million including December for those 2 countries because the UK figure doesn't include Black Friday where they sold 110k+. Another 200k(minimum) in December in the UK is likely. That alone gets you to 9 million without including Germany Dec. numbers.
I've included black friday in the 8.7m
I think Microsoft did well. They really need to focus on non-US and UK markets or Sony will run away with the market massively.
I think Microsoft did well. They really need to focus on non-US and UK markets or Sony will run away with the market massively.
I thought the common belief nowadays was that the Ps4 has already won worldwide.
I thought the common belief nowadays was that the Ps4 has already won worldwide.
I think Microsoft did well. They really need to focus on non-US and UK markets or Sony will run away with the market massively.
The 20% drop yoy in Xbox revenue seems to make sense given that the Xbox One had it's price cut from $ 500 to $ 349 for the revisions sold the most (without Kinect).
I'm not sure I follow you. How does phasing out Xbox 360 make it likely that its US to ROW ratio would increase?
Except it didn't work out that way, at least in December. With only one exception the XBO SKU outsold the PS4 versions of every top charting multiplatform release at retail. If their software sales are poor due to that promotion, what does it say about PS4 with the larger user base and fewer free games being offered but still getting beaten?Not just that but they likely sold less games since people could get a few for "free".
Well it's mentioned in the OP anyway.
What I'm curious about is how many standalone Kinect they've sold.
There is 'won' and then there is 'destroyed the competition'. Microsoft making a bit of effort could make the 'war' look a little bit competitive.
The Xbox One was built to monetize a lot of things. That was their business model. They were going to use your biometric data to sell targeted ads, they were going to be the No. 1 console for all the media apps and subscriptions etc. The more people who buy a PS4 instead of an XB1 means that the PS+/XBL money would be in Sony's pocket and not Microsofts.
If they don't try harder in other territories Sony will effectively 'lock in' all of that cash to their ecosystem and I assume, take a small cut of it all.
This.Just putting in the effort to reduce... say... a 5:1 ratio to a 4:1 ratio is still an effort.
MS won't win WW, but there's a difference between handing it over to Sony or struggling to ensure Sony don't win too drastically.
Wouldn't the 360 drop be steeper this year? Last gen is dying a hard, swift death
I think Microsoft did well. They really need to focus on non-US and UK markets or Sony will run away with the market massively.
The logic would go like this: There is a certain point in sales where it stops being worth it to continue ordering new hardware, especially in territories where the system never did particularly well in the first place. Because America was so far and away their biggest market, it makes perfect sense that it would last longer here, and therefore as time goes on even as sales drop, US sales would account for more and more of the shrinking pie up until discontinuation. It's a bit like this with the Vita, it will probably continue selling in Japan much longer than it will anywhere else.
Except it didn't work out that way, at least in December. With only one exception the XBO SKU outsold the PS4 versions of every top charting multiplatform release at retail. If their software sales are poor due to that promotion, what does it say about PS4 with the larger user base and fewer free games being offered but still getting beaten?
You're thinking of this wrong. To get the 13 million or close to it, I am saying that the GAF estimates from previous months would be drastically wrong, with the XBO shipments going into October closer to 8 million than 7 million. Think of it as an alternate theory rather than a firm prediction, we reall don't have enough information currently to say one way or the other, but I feel like it's close to 12 than 13. XBO obviously did better than .6 million when it sold .7 in the US alone. 5:1.6 sounds like a good split to me. This would give the XBO and 360 a similar WW shipment ratio relative to their confirmed US sales (Although still giving the 360 the better ratio).Another way to look at your proposed number is that this would mean they shipped 5.5-6M XB1 in Oct-Dec. Which would mean:
- They only shipped 0.6-1.1M 360 (down from 3.5 last year).
- They did at least as well as Sony on that Q, although the XB1 is only available in ~1/3 of the countries, and doesn't perform anywhere near as well as the PS4 in most of these.
IIRC NPD doesn't count games in official bundles but if retailers throw in additional games, these are tracked.
Easier said than done though. The Xbox One isn't even ahead in US yet and for many of those territories MS probably doesn't even have a solid view on tactics that would even work whereas Sony as a brand is fully established and knows the market.There is 'won' and then there is 'destroyed the competition'. Microsoft making a bit of effort could make the 'war' look a little bit competitive.
The Xbox One was built to monetize a lot of things. That was their business model. They were going to use your biometric data to sell targeted ads, they were going to be the No. 1 console for all the media apps and subscriptions etc. The more people who buy a PS4 instead of an XB1 means that the PS+/XBL money would be in Sony's pocket and not Microsofts.
If they don't try harder in other territories Sony will effectively 'lock in' all of that cash to their ecosystem and I assume, take a small cut of it all.
You're thinking of this wrong. To get the 13 million or close to it, I am saying that the GAF estimates from previous months would be drastically wrong, with the XBO shipments going into October closer to 8 million than 7 million. Think of it as an alternate theory rather than a firm prediction, we reall don't have enough information currently to say one way or the other, but I feel like it's close to 12 than 13. XBO obviously did better than .6 million when it sold .7 in the US alone. 5:1.6 sounds like a good split to me. This would give the XBO and 360 a similar WW shipment ratio relative to their confirmed US sales (Although still giving the 360 the better ratio).
Well if retailers are the ones who are doing it themselves without it being an official promotion from Microsoft, then Microsoft still receives royalties. for the sale of the new game to the store, so it wouldn't affect their software revenue. I don't really know all of the officials promotions they did. Which of the games in the top 10 from last month did they give away for free but didn't include in a hardware bundle?
Soooo is the consensus 11m shipped & ~ 10m sold?
I predict XB1 sold through to be......9.6m, with 1.2m sat on shelves. PS4 I predict 19.2 sold through, with 300k sat on shelves. I know this because I just said it.
I'm buying the Surface Pro 4 whenever that hits alternatively if the high-end Surface pro 3 has a big sale then I may pick that one. Nonetheless a Surface pro is going to be bought this year for meHappy for the Surface. Once the S3 goes on a good sale I want to pick one up. Played with my friend's for a bit and it was very impressive.
With the Xbox 360 fading faster than most expected, that's actually down on last year.
Considering that Microsoft overstocked markets again, especially in the US, I'd expect the shipment numbers to be ~11.25 million. As for sold through numbers, I stand by my prediction that it is ~9.75 million unless Microsoft releases their sales figures.Soooo is the consensus 11m shipped & ~ 10m sold?
LOL, I know, right? There should be at least 1.5 million X1's sitting in warehouses WW IMO. Yet when I made this statement, The Shogun called it out as ridiculous.Do you really think their is only 300k PS4's sitting around on shelves/distribution channels across the entire planet?
Even 1.2m might be low.
Yeah 10.5 million is their best case scenario for sold through but this is all speculation. Nothing is confirmed. We are going off a leak, PR, conference calls, and trends. If they overshipped 900k to 13 markets, how much did they overship to 39 markets?It's likely close to 2:1. Sony is sitting at 18.5 - 19 million sold through and MS is sitting somewhere around 11.5 million shipped if I read this thread right.
Yet when I made this statement, The Shogun called it out as ridiculous.
Canada is likely bigger than France by a sizable margin for the 3rd biggest market for Xbox, Australia is up there too
Yeah, your prediction is in line with mine. Though I think 10.5 million would be the absolute highest estimation.Yeah 10.5 million is their best case scenario for sold through but this is all speculation. Nothing is confirmed. We are going off a leak, PR, conference calls, and trends. If they overshipped 900k to 13 markets, how much did they overship to 39 markets?
We don't know the split of Xbox One and 360 and we don't know the shipped numbers for Xbox One. According to some all the major markets add up 8.7M as of Dec. 31st 2014. 1.8M are suppose to come from these really small markets that has been selling the console for 4 MONTHS! (which I just don't believe). My guess is 9.7M-10.5M. 9.7M would be in line with the 2:1 trend throughout 2014. 10.5M suggest that it sold nearly as well as PS4 worldwide in Q4. (Lol)
Pretty sure I was clear when I said 1.5 million in warehouses WW. And LOL at the picture.
That's probably because he forgot aboutDrethe RotW.
1.5 million consoles sitting in the chanel.....
What is happening
LOL, really? Thanks, edited.edit your post this can be seen as complaining about other posters which is bannable apparently
Yeah 10.5 million is their best case scenario for sold through but this is all speculation. Nothing is confirmed. We are going off a leak, PR, conference calls, and trends. If they overshipped 900k to 13 markets, how much did they overship to 39 markets?
We don't know the split of Xbox One and 360 and we don't know the shipped numbers for Xbox One. According to some all the major markets add up 8.7M as of Dec. 31st 2014. 1.8M are suppose to come from these really small markets that has been selling the console for 4 MONTHS! (which I just don't believe). My guess is 9.7M-10.5M. 9.7M would be in line with the 2:1 trend throughout 2014. 10.5M suggest that it sold nearly as well as PS4 worldwide in Q4. (Lol)
In the US? Dude, what?
TIL 6.7 million to 6.2 million is nearly 2:1
This thread has gone crazy.
Im at work at the moment and cant make a long post so i'll break down the sell through numbers I have for X1 a bit later today.